Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:27 PM EDT (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:50AMMoonset 11:50AM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1011 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tue..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 270131
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
931 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
Heat will return once again, as an upper ridge amplifies from
the south. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible from
time to time, but overall, expect hot and dry weather through
at least mid-week.

Near term through Monday night
As of 930 pm Sunday... Scattered cumulus will dissipate after sunset,
and consensus of guidance shows lows will fall to the lower 70s
before sunrise Monday... Except closer to 75 at the coast. A
surface trough wind shift will enter the western CWA after 06z,
and make its way to the coast around dawn, in association with a
slight weakness in the mid-level ridging which is established
over the SE conus. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will
drop into central nc Monday, however it looks to remain north of
the area, leaving conditions Monday very similar to today. That
is, rain chances almost nil, and temperatures reaching the
upper 90s away from the coast. Lows Monday night generally
70-75.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 3 pm Sunday... Mid-level ridge lingers over the southeast
during the middle of the week. Some differing opinions as to how far
north the center of the 5h ridge. This has impacts locally as there
will be a series of shortwaves, accompanied by moisture, moving
across the top of the ridge. Favoring a stronger ridge and drier
solution through Wed night. Combination of elongated high off the
coast and strengthening piedmont trough each afternoon will keep
winds west-southwest. Sea breeze will have limited success moving
inland, allowing for highs well above climo. Away from the beach,
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with some areas reaching 100.

Lows are also expected to run above climo, with most areas in the
low to mid 70s. Rainfall chances remain quite limited. Mid-level
subsidence and dry air along with a lack of strong forcing work to
keep most of the area dry.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Ridging aloft starts to weaken on Thu before
collapsing on fri. Flat mid-level flow develops late next week,
moving a weak front into the region. Lack of strong mid-level push
will keep the front stalled in the vicinity, likely just west of the
forecast area. Increasing moisture will lead to an increase in
rainfall chances late in the week.

-temperatures above to well above climo continue, highs will trend a
little closer to climo for the weekend.

-rainfall chances increase Thu through Sun with the best chances
over the weekend.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
As of 0z... .Vfr as upper ridge remains in place over the southeast.

Mostly clear skies with diurnal cumulus, and possibly some cirrus,
tomorrow afternoon. Too dry for any fog or stratus concerns tonight
or tomorrow morning. West-northwest winds overnight will veer to
northwesterly tomorrow as a trough moves through the area. Winds
at cre and myr will become southwesterly in the afternoon due to
pinned sea breeze.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR into next week. Slight chance MVFR
each morning in low stratus fog, or isolated tstms.

Marine
As of 3 pm Sunday... South to southwest winds around 10
kt... Gusting to 15-20 kt at times, will continue through the
evening around high pressure centered off the carolina coast. A
wind shift to west-northwest is expected around or just after
sunrise as a weak surface trough moves off the coast, but
southwest flow will reestablish during the afternoon. A weak
gradient will result in wind speeds 10 kt or less Monday night,
and direction will become variable after midnight. Seas of 2-3
ft this evening will fall settle to around 2 feet throughout by
Monday afternoon.

Elongated surface high off the coast and piedmont trough inland will
maintain southwest flow Tuesday through Friday. Gradient tightens up
each afternoon, especially later in the week as the trough becomes
more defined and starts moving toward the coast. Speeds 10 to 15 kt
tue and Wed will climb into the 15 to 20 kt range Thu and fri. Seas
build from around 2 ft Tue to 3 to 4 ft for Thu and fri. Seas
continue to be made up of mostly a south to southwest wind wave.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Crm
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... Vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi80 min W 9.7 G 12 78°F 78°F1015.7 hPa
41159 25 mi58 min 77°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi80 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 78°F1015.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi58 min 77°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi46 min SW 8.9 G 11 82°F 76°F1015.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi80 min W 14 G 18 78°F 78°F1015.4 hPa
WLON7 35 mi40 min 81°F1015.5 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi40 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 80°F1015.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi88 min SW 6 G 8 77°F 1015.3 hPa (+0.0)75°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi32 minWSW 69.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F77%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S5S7S7S6S4S7S7SW44SW8W635SE7SE4S9S4W6S6S4CalmCalmSW6
1 day agoE10E8E8E6E4E6NE3NE6E4NE4E5SE11SE11SE7SE10SE9S12SE11S12S11SE9SE8S7S10
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Sun -- 01:44 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.72.82.62.11.61.10.70.50.60.91.522.42.62.62.31.81.30.90.60.60.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.