Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:32 PM EDT (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:36AMMoonset 4:47PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 755 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of tstms early this evening. Showers. A slight chance of tstms late this evening and early morning.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 232224
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
624 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Waves of low pressure will continue to move along stalled cold
front producing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
through mid week. Another cold front trailing from a deep low
pressure system over the ohio valley on Thursday will cross the
area, bringing the final round of showers to the area. High
pressure will build in late Thursday into Friday maintaining
quieter weather for much of the weekend. Low pressure may affect
the area early next week producing more unsettled weather.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 630 pm Tuesday... Only minor changes to the forecast with
this early evening update: forecast pops are solidly 100
percent now through about 11 pm area-wide, with gradual drying
then expected from west to east as a dry slot over central
georgia spreads up into our area. In terms of heavy rainfall and
potential flooding, i'm concerned with the next batch of heavy
precipitation spreading northward through southern south
carolina now. The latest hrrr rap model runs may be too far west
with this next wave of rain, so i'm increased forecast rainfall
totals east of i-95 by an additional half inch tonight, mainly
before midnight. Although my forecast new rainfall totals from
6 pm until 6 am are 0.50 to 1.00 inches, there will undoubtedly
be spots that pick up 2-3 inches with flash flooding becoming a
possibility due to increasingly saturated ground and elevated
retention ponds and small streams.

Discussion from 300 pm follows...

convective coverage has solidly increased over the last few
hours ahead of a wave of low pressure. This wave will be moving
ne along a stalled font with its main impacts being felt across
our area during the eve hours with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected. The heavy rain potential will continue,
thus a flash flood watch remains in effect. Precipitable water
values are at record levels for this time of year, 2 inches.

Thus, training thunderstorms will have the potential to bring
excessive rainfall. We are forecasting 1 to 3 inches of
additional rainfall through Wed with amounts locally in excess
of 4 inches. This may lead to significant ponding in many low-
lying an poor drainage areas and even the risk for flash
flooding, although the flash flood risk should be more
localized. Urban areas will be the most susceptible to flooding.

Low level jetting increases this eve and SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe weather. There is a non zero risk for
damaging wind gusts in a wet microburst or even a brief tornado. The
limiting factor for severe weather will be marginal lapse rates
marginal instability as cloud cover has been extensive today.

Once this wave moves by, there should be an overnight lull which
should persist into Wed morning. Then another low pressure wave
later Wed and Wed eve should bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms. Expect extensive clouds to dominate the period with
low stratus overnight and Wed morning.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Deep moisture associated with cold front now
progged to get shunted offshore more quickly than previously thought
early Wednesday night and this period should mark the end of
appreciable rainfall. Light shower activity will persist but in a
more spotty fashion thereafter as increasingly strong PVA and height
falls impinge from the west. In fact, the coverage and intensity
should pick up midday Thursday as the fairly impressive 32 s-1 vort
and -21c trough axis swings through at 500mb. In fact this energy
swings through so quickly that the low level CAA shuts off Thursday
night but not before dropping enough to support some lows in the
upper 50s with low 60s along beaches.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Plenty of dry air will move in with deep
westerly flow on the back end of exiting low pressure system on
fri. Pcp water values drop down to .75 inches or below early
fri but do creep back up over an inch by late Friday. Overall
expect a sunny dry day on Friday with temps reaching into the
mid 80s.

High pressure ridge to the south will reach up into the
carolinas maintaining pleasant weather through much of the
weekend. A shortwave rides across the top of the ridge over the
weekend mainly remaining north of the forecast area. This could
produce some clouds or a spotty shower late Sat into Sat night,
mainly over nc. The GFS builds the ridge a little farther north
and therefore holds any weather farther to the north with a deep
warm southerly flow and sunnier weather overall all weekend. A
deeper mid to upper trough digs down late in the weekend and
could produce an increase of clouds and showers Sun through tues
timeframe. Will have to see how the models evolve. For now,
will keep chc of shwrs north of area through Sat night but will
include pops for Sun through tues.

The building ridge and westerly downslope flow through the mid
levels will produce above normal temps through much of the
period with temps reaching above 90 in spots especially over
the weekend.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 18z Tuesday... Much of the TAF period will be dominated by
convection with MVFR and ifr ceilings and visibility. One wave
will bring widespread convection into the later eve hours. Then
there should be a decrease in the number of thunderstorms, but
ceilings should remain near or within the ifr category if not
lower overnight. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
again increase on wed, most likely after 18z. As low level
jetting increases this eve, the risk for wind shear will
increase. At this time, have included wind shear at kflo.

Extended outlook... Reduced flight categories will be possible
in periodic showers and thunderstorms into Thursday.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 600 pm Tuesday... No significant changes have been made to
the forecast with this early evening update. Increasing south-
southwesterly winds are still expected this evening as a wave of
low pressure moves northeastward along the stalled front inland.

Another wave of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms between
charleston and savannah and moving our way will make conditions
uncomfortable to dangerous across the coastal waters tonight.

Discussion from 300 pm follows...

a small craft advisory is in effect for all waters through the
period and beyond. Wind speeds will be up to 20 to 25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt. The highest wind speeds during this period
will be tonight. However, although wind speeds will slacken
during the first half of wed, they are expected to increase to
similar levels during Wed afternoon and eve. The wind direction
will be SW through the period. Seas will build to 5 to 7 ft
tonight, then perhaps subside a foot or so before building to
similar levels during the later stages of Wed afternoon. Bouts
of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will drop
visibility to a mile or less. The most widespread coverage
during this forecast period will be tonight.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Solid small craft advisory conditions
Wednesday night in not only a moderately pinched gradient but also
an environment characterized by increased wind fields aloft leading
to vertical momentum transfer. So now peak wind gusts may attain
35kt but at this time they do not appear to be near frequent enough
to warrant gale warning. Frontal passage comes early Thursday
leading to a veering to the west and a gradual decrease in sustained
wind speeds. The upper trough meanwhile may persist the gustiness
factor into the early afternoon. Winds may tick up a category in
speed in the CAA Thursday night, likely continuing the advisory.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... A stronger off shore westerly flow on
Friday will diminish and back around to the w-sw through the day
as low pressure system exits farther off to the east and high
pressure builds up from the south. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will
diminish to 2 to 4 ft through Friday and down below 3 ft by fri
night in weakening offshore flow.

High pressure south of the area waters will shift east through
the weekend into early next week producing a persistent sw
return flow. Initially winds will only be 10 kts or so but low
pressure moving by to the north Sat night into Sun and an
approaching cold front late in the weekend into early next week
may produce an increase in SW winds. Seas less than 3 ft
Saturday in lighter winds will rise up to 3 to 5 ft in
increasing SW winds Sat night into sun.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Flash flood watch through Wednesday evening for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.

Beach hazards statement through Wednesday evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Flash flood watch through Wednesday evening for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Beach hazards statement through Wednesday evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Rjd tra
short term... mbb
long term... Rgz
aviation... Rjd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi85 min SW 19 G 25 74°F 76°F1007.2 hPa
41159 25 mi50 min 76°F6 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi57 min SW 5.1 G 6 72°F 75°F1006.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi64 min 75°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi85 min WSW 9.7 G 16 74°F 75°F1007.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi85 min SW 19 G 25 75°F 75°F1006.6 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 33 mi108 min W 1.9 71°F 1008 hPa
WLON7 35 mi57 min 70°F 77°F1006.9 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi57 min SW 8 G 13 72°F 73°F1006.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi33 min WSW 12 G 17 72°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi37 minSW 810.00 miLight Rain70°F70°F100%1006.7 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W7W5CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS7S7S5S7S7S7S8----S11
G20
S7S7SW9SW8SW8
1 day agoE6SE5E6SE8S4CalmCalmS3CalmS3S4S6SW10SW11
G18
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2 days agoSE6SE6E12NE10NE9NE10NE10NE8NE6NE7NE9NE8NE5N7NE73--------------E6

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.20.71.52.32.932.82.21.40.5-0.1-0.3-0.10.51.52.53.33.83.83.32.51.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:42 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.41.32.53.64.24.33.82.81.60.4-0.4-0.5-012.43.955.55.34.53.21.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.