Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 8:50 PM   Moonset 6:07 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1012 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night - .
Overnight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Scattered showers late this evening and early morning. Isolated tstms. Isolated showers late. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Fri - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sun night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1012 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A cold front will cross the region later tonight through Thursday. High pressure builds back into the area from the north by Thursday night and eventually slides offshore this weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 250148 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 948 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak backdoor cold front will bring only minor rain chances this evening. High pressure will build in from the north for Thursday through Saturday with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early next week as the high shifts to off the southeast US coast.

UPDATE
Cold front currently crossing the forecast area with sprinkles and light showers developing along the boundary. Bulk of the area will remain dry with a few spots ending up with close to 0.10" from the heaviest showers. This will be the exception though and average across the forecast area will struggle to reach 0.05". May see some patchy fog develop. Boundary layer remains dry, although areas where showers end up dropping 0.05-0.10" would have a much better shot at seeing some fog.
Wind speeds will become light and variable as the front slowly drifts across the area tonight before ultimately pushing offshore Thu morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weak cold front resides to the northwest as delineated by the narrow band of cloud cover and showers. The latest guidance offers up no compelling reasons to move the forecast of low chance pops either way thus no changes with some showers possible this evening. Some stratus or fog is possible in the wake of the boundary as the push is minimal. Thursday offers up mostly sunny conditions with highs ever so slightly moderated to the middle 70s or so.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure will maintain control while shifting across New England through the end of the week and then southward to off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the period. Aloft, the mid-level pattern will transition away from weak troughing as a ridge over the central US sharpens and shifts overhead by the end of the period. This will yield a mainly dry forecast with passing low and high clouds at times as areas of enhanced moisture move overhead. With high pressure to our north and northeast, winds will favor easterly and allow for a healthy sea breeze to make good inland progress.
Temperatures will follow a gradual warming trend as 1000-500mb thicknesses increase with the arrival of ridging aloft. Expect highs in the low-mid 70s on Friday and mid-upper 70s on Saturday with lows mainly in the low-mid 50s both Thursday night and Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure looks to settle off the southeast US coast for the remainder of the period while mid-level ridging remains firmly in place until a shortwave trough shunts it away between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Overall, this keeps a mainly dry and sunny forecast in play with little to no forcing for ascent and no notable surge in moisture. However, with the high off our coast, expect rising temperatures as south to southwesterly low-level flow takes over on Sunday night and persists thereafter. The aforementioned shortwave trough should drag a decaying cold front across our area around midweek, but rain chances are looking meager at this time due to sparse moisture and weak forcing.

Temperatures start out near normal on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and nighttime lows in the mid-upper 50s.
They take a turn above normal for the first half of next week as the high settles nearby, bringing high temps into the low-mid 80s with some upper 80s possible well-inland and upper 70s along the coast. Nighttime lows look to hold in the low 60s.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR continues tonight. Weak front moving into the area did have some light sprinkles/showers with it, but much of that activity has waned. There is some potential for development of a few light showers/sprinkles through midnight or so along the boundary, but trends have shown this potential decreasing. Have not bothered to include any mention of precipitation within the TAFs. Some patchy ground fog is possible late tonight, but with the amount of low level dry air, do not think widespread or dense fog will be an issue. Front pushes south of the area tomorrow as high pressure to the north shifts east. Weak gradient will keep east to northeast winds light.

Extended Outlook...There is a low potential for MVFR to IFR visibility in ground fog Friday morning.

MARINE
Through Thursday...
A modest southwest flow of 15-20 knots will remain in place for a few more hours then shift to offshore in kind of a distorted mess later tonight. Officially the direction will be from the north Thursday but don't be surprised at some erratic directions as speeds/forcing will be meager. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet well into tonight trending downward from there to 2-3 feet.

Thursday night through Monday...
ENE winds at the start of the period will hold steady at around 10-15 kts while gradually veering towards the ESE as high pressure shifts across New England, then down the East Coast.
Expect a definitive shift to southerly flow by late Sunday or Sunday night as the high settles off our coast. Seas look to remain in the 2-4 ft range through the period, with a surge of 3-4 ft E to ENE swells with a period of 10 sec arriving over Thursday night into Friday morning and continuing into Sunday.
These swells scale back to 2-3 ft for late Sunday through Monday while southerly 1-2 ft wind waves become more prominent. No headlines are expected through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Wed -- 02:46 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:45 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:57 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
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