Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday April 30, 2017 10:51 AM EDT (14:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:12AMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1046 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt...becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming S 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day...then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1046 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will extend across the area waters from offshore through early Monday. A cold front will bring small craft advisory conditions Monday into Tuesday. High pressure and calmer marine conditions will follow late Tuesday into Wednesday. Approaching low pressure and its associated cold front will bring higher winds and seas and the possibility for small craft advisory conditions beginning Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 301023
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
623 am edt Sun apr 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through
early Monday with warm and humid conditions continuing. A cold
front will bring a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms late
Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the
mid-week period. A low pressure system will impact the region
Thursday into Friday amd may bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 300 am Sunday... Light southerly flow continues with very
humid air mass over the area this morning. Winds slightly lower
than last night has allowed for some patchy fog. Moisture
profiles show a shallow saturated level once again below 1k ft.

Looking around at obs, many sites to the south and west of local
area were reporting decks of stratus right around 800 to 900
ft. Have included several hours of these low clouds into the
morning before they lift leaving some strato CU and cirrus
around this afternoon. Overall expect a fair amount of sunshine
this afternoon. Temps early morning will remain right around 70
degrees which will jump start the temps to continue well above
normal temps for today. Should see MAX temps in the mid 80s most
places. Although the temps will be running several degrees
above normal today, records will be tough to beat most places
except perhaps for north myrtle beach.

Record MAX temps around the area for today
wilmington 92 set in 1974
north myrtle beach 83 set in 2007
florence 94 set in 1981
have included a brief period of very slight chc pops west of
i-95 this afternoon as the upper ridge begins to slip east
losing the strong cap aloft. A deep trough will drive a cold
front toward the carolinas by Monday morning. Although the front
remains well west at the end of the this period, the gradient
will tighten and expect increasing winds through tonight. All
pcp associated with the cold front will hold off until Monday.

Soundings continue to show very shallow moisture in place once
again tonight but dewpoint temps seem a bit lower so not as
confident. Overnight temps will once again remain a good 10
degrees above normal in a unseasonably warm and humid air mass.

Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/
As of 300 am Sunday... Chances for convection increase on Monday
as a cold front moves east across the coastal carolinas as an
upper trough transits across eastern conus. High pressure over
the western atlantic will retreat east as the cold front
approaches, with spotty late afternoon convection increasing
into the likely category from west to east Monday evening as the
front moves across the forecast area. A consensus of guidance
has the precip well offshore by daybreak on Tuesday. Post-
frontal airmass is very dry and a bit cooler. Steady SW flow in
advance of the front will maintain above-normal temperatures on
Monday, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the lower
to 60s. Tuesday will be a bit cooler although still above
normal, with highs of around 80 and lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/
As of 315 pm Saturday... High pressure will remain in place
Wednesday with slightly warmer temperatures but continued dry
weather before it shifts offshore Thursday. This occurs in
response to a deep mid-level trough digging into the middle of
the country and then evolving across the eastern CONUS into the
weekend.

There exists two distinct camps in the guidance: the GFS has
this low cutting off and dropping southeast through the end of
the period. The cmc/ecm have a similar pattern initially to the
gfs, but the upper low drifts north before cutting off over the
northeast. The biggest difference between the guidance appears
to be the evolution of the ridge across the middle of the
country. The cmc/ecm keep the ridge axis aligned n/s, while the
gfs produces a more tilted ne/sw ridge which suppresses the
upper low. The agreement between the ecm/cmc tends to favor that
solution a bit more, despite the fact that the GFS has been
consistent and we had a similar setup just last week so there is
precedent. The evolution of this upper pattern is critical
because, while all scenarios support showers and thunderstorms
late Thursday and Friday, the cmc/ecm would dry things out for
the weekend, while the GFS would maintain unsettled and possibly
very wet weather for several days. Without a clear solution at
this time range, will hedge with a wpc favored blend of guidance
but with a bit more weight on the drier ecm by the weekend.

This would also bring much cooler temperatures to the region
fri/sat with highs and lows falling below climo.

Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/
As of 12z... Once again main concern is stratus deck or lack
thereof, especially for our inland terminals this morning. High
clouds makes it difficult to judge extent of stratus on
satellite loops but most inland sites are observing stratus from
0.4 to 1.0 kft. Will initialize lbt and flo with ifr CIGS this
am, lifting in a couple of hours. Otherwise goingVFR through
the daylight hours, with the possibility of a return to stratus
overnight.

Extended outlook... Periods of ifr/MVFR conditions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 300 am Sunday... Southerly return flow will continue around
high pressure well offshore. Expect winds 10 to 15 kts today
with an uptick due to sea breeze in the aftn where gusts could
reach over 20 kts. By tonight the gradient will tighten as a
cold front nears the carolinas from the west. Expect winds to
increase up to 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts after midnight.

This will drive seas up from 2 to 3 ft today to 3 to 5 ft after
midnight and could possibly see a few 6 fters by Mon morning.

Precautionary conditions will exist after midnight tonight with
a small craft advisory launched for after this period.

Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...

as of 300 am Sunday... Increasing SW flow in advance of the next
cold front has prompted the issuance of a small craft advisory
for Monday afternoon and night. By Monday night seas will have
built to 4 to 7 ft, although winds may slacken in the pre-dawn
hours of Tuesday as the front makes its close approach to the
waters. Expect SCA to be short- lived as post frontal surge will
be modest and offshore, with seas decaying back before 6 ft by
Tuesday afternoon.

Long term /Wednesday through Thursday/...

as of 315 pm Saturday... A secondary surge flips winds around to
the NW by Wednesday at less than 10 kts. As the high shifts
offshore into Thursday, southerly winds will ramp up quickly
becoming 15-25 kts, driving seas back to 4-7 ft after being just
2-3 ft much of Wednesday. An SCA will likely be needed
beginning late in the extended.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Monday to 8 am edt Tuesday for
amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Rgz
short term... Rek
long term... Jdw
aviation... Rek
marine... Rek/jdw/rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi52 min S 9.9 G 11 73°F 71°F1022.6 hPa (+1.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi53 min 72°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi44 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 71°F1023.5 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 28 mi67 min SW 7 78°F 1024 hPa73°F
WLON7 29 mi52 min 77°F 72°F1023.3 hPa (+1.1)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi44 min S 9.7 G 16 75°F 73°F1023.4 hPa
41159 34 mi39 min 73°F3 ft
41064 34 mi44 min SSW 7.8 G 12 74°F 1024.1 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi52 min SW 6 G 9.9 77°F 72°F1023.4 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi56 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F72°F76%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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S9S8S7S6S6S5S4S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:20 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:49 PM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.44.32.81.30.1-0.5-0.40.31.42.63.64.143.32.31.10.1-0.4-0.20.51.83.24.55.3

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:37 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:13 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.42.61.60.70-0.3-0.20.41.32.22.82.92.621.30.60-0.2-0.10.61.62.73.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.