Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:29PM Friday October 20, 2017 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:57AMMoonset 6:23PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 625 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Today..N winds 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt or less. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of tstms through the day. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 625 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate into the weekend as a moderate easterly swell persists. Northeast and east winds will turn southerly early next week ahead of a strong cold front with small craft advisory conditions possibly developing beginning late Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201131
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
731 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Synopsis
Dry and warm conditions are expected through the weekend,
as an upper ridge over the gulf states moves east, and off
the carolina coasts. An approaching storm system will bring
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late Monday through
next Tuesday, followed by much cooler air through mid week.

Near term through tonight
As of 217 am Friday... Any fog early this morning and again late
tonight will be very patchy and largely inconsequential in its
ability to significantly impact visibility across a large area
given the lack of low-level moisture. However, fog prone
locations may see patchy fog for a couple hours, mainly near
sunrise.

High pressure centered across the appalachians will ease ene and
slowly weaken, ending up offshore during sat. A mid-level ridge
will also persist. This will keep the dry weather and seasonably
warm temps in place with comfortably low relative humidity. The
dryness of the column and plentiful sunshine will allow for
efficient warming despite the ever shrinking daylight hours. We
will be hard pressed to see even a cloud in the sky.

Highs will be around 80 and only a weak seabreeze is expected
which could shave a degree or two off the beach temps this
afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, lower 50s inland
and mid 50s nearer the coast.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 217 am Friday... A nice one shaping up if you enjoy warm
sunshine on a Saturday and Sunday in october. Above normal
temperatures this weekend are on tap, as a a dry upper ridge
moves east into the region, into air already quite dry. As a
result, plenty sunshine minutes are expected to rack-up both
days, with highs more indicative of september, and almost 10
degrees above normal for inland spots. The coolest portion of
this period is daybreak Saturday, as lows Sunday morning will
run 4-6 degrees milder, as the marine influence becomes more
influential. Convergence offshore, with increasing low-level
moisture, may bring a few low-topped showers late Sunday into
coastal NE sc, and this trend will continue into Monday, with
warm air advection ramping up.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 3 pm Thursday... The upper level pattern continues to show
high pressure breaking down and a large scale trough moving to
the eastern half of the united states by Tuesday. This is slower
than the previous run. At the surface the frontal boundary is
slower with the GFS bringing the frontal boundary into the area
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is even slower with the boundary
pushing off the coast Wednesday morning.

Precipiation chances start late Sunday night with isolated
showers then chances increase to likely on Tuesday with the
frontal passage.

High temperatures will be around 80 degrees on Sunday and
Monday but with the frontal passage will see temperatures
falling into the upper 60s to middle 60s by Wednesday and
Thursday. Lows on Sunday night will be in the lower to middle
60s but will fall into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday
night.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z... MostlyVFR this TAF valid period. Except for a few
cirrus skies will be mostly clear. Winds will be light and
variable to light N today, except e-se at kcre kmyr 18-00z.

Winds become calm this evening. Good setup for br but overall too
dry. However, may need to add some br at kcre after 01z due to
some increase in low level moisture from this afternoons onshore
flow, and at klbt due to local effects. Since moisture is
limited it should be patchy and not predominate.

Extended outlook... Showers and thunderstorms may result in
flight restrictions mon-tue.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 217 am Friday... High pressure centered across the
appalachians will ease east-northeast through tonight. The
gradient over the waters will be weak with wind speeds under 10
kt through the period. The direction will be N this morning,
veering to NE this afternoon and ene tonight. Across the near
shore waters, the direction should veer to E or ese as a weak
seabreeze develops this afternoon. Seas will not change much,
remaining in the 2 to 3 ft range through tonight with an
easterly swell around 9 seconds slowly decaying.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 217 am Friday... A nice marine weekend shaping up, as
surface high pressure migrates farther ene to sea, leaving a
light to moderate onshore ne-e wind this weekend. Winds will
become se-ese nearshore both afternoons as a sea breeze forms
from the warm inland temperatures. As a result, mariners may
expect a few gusts to approach 20 kt inshore between 2pm-5pm. No
tstms in the mix this weekend since it remains dry aloft, but
isolated showers will approach the NE sc coast late Sunday. Ese
waves will level off around 3 feet every 9 seconds, and a light
onshore chop, moderate at times.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... High pressure over the waters will
weaken and shift offshore. This will allow for veering of the
winds with a southerly wind by Monday. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet
as the winds slowly increase ahead of front that will approach
the waters late Tuesday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Rjd
short term... Mjc
long term... Drh
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi52 min NW 7 G 8.9 60°F 74°F1023.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi41 min 74°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi92 min NNW 5.8 G 9.7 65°F 74°F1023.1 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 28 mi115 min Calm 56°F 1023 hPa
WLON7 29 mi52 min 55°F 73°F1023.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi92 min N 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 75°F1023 hPa
41064 34 mi92 min N 3.9 G 7.8 72°F 1022.8 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi52 min N 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 70°F1023.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair53°F53°F100%1024 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE5NE65E6E3CalmCalm3N4S4W4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm
1 day agoN7N8N8NE11
G20
N9NE8NE8NE9NE9NE7NE4NE4NE3N6NE7NE6N6N6N5N5N5N5N4N6
2 days agoN9--N11N11N12N13N13N9NE8NE7NE6NE8NE8NE5N6N6N7N6N8N10N7N8N9N5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:41 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.50.20.51.32.63.94.95.45.34.63.52.110.30.30.81.72.93.94.54.64.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:38 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:58 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.80.30.10.41.12.13.13.73.83.52.92.11.20.60.20.20.61.42.433.33.12.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.