Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:51PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:55 AM EDT (15:55 UTC) Moonrise 5:19AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1025 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of today..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt or less. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt...becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1025 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through Tuesday. A moderately strong cold front will cross the coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Canadian high pressure will build in Thursday and Friday with ne winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211437
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1037 am edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
A weak and stalled front will slowly dissipate to just a trof
of low pressure today. Moisture from an upper trof to our
south will make its way onshore and inland during today.

High pressure will expand across the area from the western
atlantic late today thru early Wednesday, allowing the heat
and high humidity to continue. A modest cold front pushing
southeast will track across the eastern carolinas late
Wednesday night thru Thursday. Models indicate this front to
continue south and east of the area before stalling on fri.

This will enable canadian high pressure to build in behind
the front bringing drier weather and slightly below normal
temps for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1030 am Monday... Daytime heating has led to convective
clouds and a few showers thus far across inland areas. Some of
the convection associated with a persistent inverted surface
trough and mid level deformation has drifted onshore as well.

The latest NAM keeps most of the activity along the coast as
does a lot of other guidance. I will give it another hour or two
to monitor trends but a lowering of pops may be in order. The
cloud cover forecast is also looking a little better for eclipse
viewing although it will remain somewhat of a challenge,
especially along coastal areas. No other changes. Previous
discussion follows:
isolated scattered showers offshore will
migrate towards shore through the early morning hours, and
potentially bring light precip amounts to the nearshore zones
in the predawn hours. Also anticipate very good potential for
fog to develop towards daybreak, given similar low-level
moisture profile as last couple of days, and even lighter winds
in the lowest few thousand feet. Abundant low-level moisture and
instability should allow for the development of widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms by midday, primarily along
the sea breeze and the remnants of frontal boundary lying across
the southern cwa. Convection will fade with the loss of heating
after sunset. High temps will range from the upper 80s coast to
the mid 90s across the pee dee, and this will lead to heat
indices topping out in the low 100s.

As far as sky cover for eclipse viewing, time-height cross
sections do indicate some mid-level dry air, however a blanket
of moisture around 200 mb will likely result in a filtered view
through thin cirrus at best. More than likely, any potential
glimpse would have to come between cumulus buildups, which are
expected to begin by late morning.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 330 am Monday... Western atlantic ridging sfc and aloft
will dominate the fa's weather tue. Weak inverted mid-level
troffing extending from the gulf of mexico northeastward across
eastern georgia and the eastern carolinas. This troffing
apparently broke off from the upper low that pushed westward
across the gulf of mexico to near the tx and mexico coast at the
start of the short term period. The dynamics associated with
this upper trof will combine with the sea breeze and a sfc trof,
which was once a stalled frontal boundary, and produce a round
of convection. Will indicate chance pops but may need to be
upped especially with various model MOS guidance not very
enthusiastic with shower and thunderstorm activity during tue.

For Wednesday, the upper ridging associated with the western
atlantic high, is progged to get shunted southward as the upper
troffing amplifies and expands southward across the eastern
1 3rd of the u.S. This will push a sfc cold front southeastward,
reaching the front doorsteps of the ilm CWA by Thu morning. Will
indicate increasing pops during Wednesday and continuing that
trend thru Wed night with a pop peak in the high chance
category. Will need to monitor late Wed into Thu for possible
severe thunderstorm activity given the decent dynamics involved.

Daily MAX min temps will remain slightly hier than the norm for
this time of the year, thus continuing with the heat and high
humidity.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Primary feature influencing extended
forecasts is cold frontal passage early Thursday. This is
supported by gfs ECMWF upper patterns, both of which also
migrate canadian high pressure into the region Friday through
the weekend, imparting a slightly drier and cooler feel than
late. Goes-16 shows the circulation near 20n north of puerto
rico, which may fester off the fl coast near a stalled
boundary early next week, potentially deepening. Regardless of
intensity, the expectation is this feature will lift to the
north slowly, remaining offshore of our coast. A few strong
storms are possible early Thursday as wind shear aloft and low-
level convergence increase as the upper trough edges in.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
As of 12z...VFR conditions to prevail after the MVFR, ifr and
even lifr conditions from the early morning fog. The upper trof
off the carolina coasts, will swing onshore this aftn and
evening. Convective tropical type showers will increase in
coverage this morning and eventually increase in strength and
transition to thunderstorms once the days heating commences.

Have indicated vcsh and vcts for the coastal terminals but may
eventually need tempo groupings. Various model MOS guidance
keeps pops rather low if not altogether out of the fcst.

Obviously, they are not verifying too well given the latest
mosaic radar coverage along the coast. The activity will likely
weaken and dissipate quickly after sunset, followed by nocturnal
shra tsra development over the adjacent atl waters during the
predawn Tue hrs. Have again indicated MVFR fog in the 08-12z
tue time frame with later TAF forecasts providing more detail.

Winds generally calm early, will become E to SE at 5 to 10 kt by
late morning and veer slightly to the SE to S 5 to 10 kt,
except 10 to 15 kt across the coastal terminals, this aftn and
early evening. Winds will likely again decouple around or
taking up to several hours after sunset.

Extended outlook... Diurnal showers tstms expected Wednesday
afternoon, becoming more numerous Wednesday night and Thursday
with fropa. Convective potential will decrease Friday as the
front moves south of the area.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1030 am Monday... No changes to the coastal waters forecast
with the mid morning update. Previous discussion follows:
isolated showers over the waters will
migrate northward through the predawn hours. Potential for
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over
the waters through the period, although they should be dampened
out a bit during the daytime hours once the sea breeze
circulation develops. Winds will remain light and variable in a
weak pressure field, with seas around 2 ft. Models continue to
show a 2 ft 9 second swell moving into the waters late tonight.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 330 am Monday... Winds and sea conditions will start out
somewhat benign given the relaxed sfc pg and a weak sfc
pressure pattern. This will change by late Tue thru the
remainder of this period. The sfc pg will begin to tighten along
with an organizing sfc pressure pattern that will both yield
increasing SW winds. The significant seas will initially be
driven by an ese-se 1 to 2 foot ground swell at 10 second
periods initially, that will build to 2 to possibly 3 feet late
tue thru much of wed. This ground swell will dominate the seas
spectrum thruout this period with wind waves helping to push
significant seas to a 2 to 4 foot range during wed. Will need to
be cognizant of any convection that pushes off the nc and sc
mainlands this period, and especially late this period when
thunderstorm activity becomes better organized and potentially
stronger.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... The extended marine period will become a
bit bumpy ahead and after a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

A wind shift will migrate across the 0- 20 nm waters early
Thursday. Strong canadian high pressure will interact with the
front offshore to produce NE winds 15-20 kt Thursday into
Friday. As a result, 'caution' and even 'advisory' headlines are
possible this period. Seas of 3-5 feet can be expected
Wednesday afternoon through much of Friday before subsiding, and
up to 6 feet well offshore. A few storms may be strong
Wednesday night through Thursday as a cold front crosses the
waters and radar updates are encouraged.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Shk crm
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... Dch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi38 min ENE 9.9 G 11 80°F 85°F1022.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi27 min 84°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi48 min E 9.7 G 14 81°F 83°F1022.9 hPa
WLON7 29 mi38 min 80°F 84°F1022.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi108 min N 5.8 G 14 82°F 84°F1022.6 hPa
41159 34 mi43 min 83°F3 ft
41064 34 mi108 min NNW 18 G 23 76°F 84°F1022.8 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi38 min ENE 6 G 8 82°F 81°F1022.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi2 hrsENE 510.00 miThunderstorm82°F79°F90%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE4SE5E74S10SE8S5CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3NE3N4N3N5NE5E4
1 day ago3W5SE9S4
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W8CalmS4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3N4CalmSE7
2 days agoSW5S8CalmSE5S9S11
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S10S8S8SW7SW7SW6SW6SW6SW5SW6SW6SW7W5W4SW6SW7W6W3

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Mon -- 01:31 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.1-0.10.51.62.944.64.642.81.50.3-0.4-0.40.21.534.45.45.85.54.43

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:33 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 02:32 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.3-0.1-0.10.51.42.43.13.332.51.70.80.1-0.3-0.30.31.32.63.5443.52.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.