Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:32 AM EST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 313 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Today..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog this morning.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 313 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored offshore, sustaining light to moderate southerly winds through the period. Each afternoon will feature gustier winds near-shore, due to the sea breeze. Patchy dense sea fog is possible through Saturday morning. A weak cold front will cross the coast late Sunday or early Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 220840
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
340 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored offshore through
Sunday. Springlike weather with unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue until a cold front arrives Monday morning. This
front should bring a shot of rain to the area, followed by
temperatures returning to near normal for the middle of next
week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Thursday... Dense fog advisory until 10 am. Much of
the same for the forecast through tonight as bermuda ridge
remains offshore. This will produce a warm and humid southerly
return flow across the area while maintaining plenty of
subsidence and dry air aloft. The very shallow moisture will
once again carry areas of fog through the morning commute
lifting by mid morning with only some strato CU left by late
morning. Subsidence inversion holds around 4-5k ft and therefore
do not count any showers with strato CU mainly between 3500 to
5k ft this afternoon.

Temperatures will once again cruise into the 70s reaching around
80 most places except for the beaches which will experience a
cooler sea breeze. Records are once again poised to be broken
with wilmington record of 78 in 2003, florence 80 in 1990,
north myrtle beach 75 in 2007 and lumberton 78 in 2003.

Going with persistence again tonight will lead to areas of fog
with some patchy dense fog developing through the early morning
hours. Any nocturnal showers over the waters will be spotty at
best and therefore do not count on any brushing up over the
land. Overnight lows will drop to between 55 and 60 most
places.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Upper ridge and sfc ridging will continue to
be the main features controlling the area's weather this period.

Friday will basically be a persistence fcst based on the previous
several days. However, Saturday will begin to see the upper ridge
flatten somewhat along with the magnitude of the sfc ridging retreat
back to the east. Successive mid-level short waves will keep trying
to erode the upper ridging as they remain well west but just north
of the fa during sat. Have increased Sat pops to a low chance across
inland counties and have them becoming more isolated across the
coastal counties. For sat, clouds and possible pcpn may shave off
several degrees from the days progged highs but nevertheless, this
period's MAX min temp fcst will continue to run an amazingly 20
degrees above normal, in feb no less!! Have hit the land fog hard
Friday night but not as hard Sat night due to cloudiness. Sea fog
could partially move onshore Friday thru Sat and will continue with
prefixing the sea fog with patchy except areas for a few hrs Friday
morning.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... The record-breaking upper level ridge
should retrograde back into the gulf of mexico and across
florida by Saturday. An upper disturbance across the plains
states should damp out as it moves east into the ridge Sunday
and Monday, but should still knock heights down enough to allow
deep moisture pulled off the western gulf of mexico to reach
the area Sunday night through Monday.

Bermuda high pressure at the surface will remain off the
carolina coast through Sunday while continuing to advect an
unseasonably warm and humid airmass into the area. A few record
high temperatures will be possible again Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday's record high of 79 in florence looks particularly
breakable.

By Sunday, increasing moisture ahead the front and the
disappearance of the subsidence inversion should spread these
showers chances down to the coast as well. The front itself
should cross the area Monday morning, finally pushing the
tropical airmass out of the area. Long-range models show rain
chances peaking behind the front Monday morning as a ~12 hour
period of isentropic lift overrunning the frontal surface
develops aloft. Once the front pushes down into georgia the
drier, cooler air from the north should become deep enough to
dry our weather back out, with more seasonable temperatures
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

It's interesting to note that the tremendous negative temperature
departures we rang up in early january (15-25 degrees below
normal for seven consecutive days) will almost be cancelled out
by the exceptional warmth we're experiencing now (february
20-25). Since december's temperatures averaged near normal, it's
likely the meteorological winter of 2017-2018 will go down in
the record books as "near normal" for average temperature...

despite the roller coaster ride we've been on seeming anything
but normal!

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... Fog developing across the area will lead the way to lifr
vsbys in fog with vertical vsbys up to 200 to 300 ft mainly between
07z and 13z. Shortly after sunrise lifr fog will lift, and ifr MVFR
vsbys and CIGS will improver by 15z across most terminals, leaving
some mainlyVFR strato CU across the area this afternoon with plenty
of dry air and subsidence through the mid levels. Soundings show
potential for some sct to bkn clouds between 3500 and 5k this
afternoon. A light southerly return flow up to 5 to 10 kts in the
aftn will persist as bermuda high remains in place.

Extended outlook... Morning ifr br possible through Sat am. Showers
and MVFR conditions possible Sunday through Monday, drying
Tuesday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Bermuda high pressure remains in control
with warm and humid light southerly flow mainly 10 kts or so.

This will once again produce areas of fog over the cooler shelf
waters overnight. Have issued a marine weather statement for
patchy dense fog across the waters through the morning. Seas
will remain right around 3 ft most waters.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Models indicate the re-positioning of the
sfc ridge axis extending from the high's center, slightly southward
each day. This will result in a slight veering of the winds to a
more southerly direction Fri and a ssw-sw direction for sat. The sfc
pg will remain somewhat relaxed on Fri and begin to slightly tighten
during sat. Thus will go with around 10 kt speeds Fri and 10-15 kt
for sat. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft or around 3 ft Fri into
sat. During this time, the ese ground swell at 9+ second periods
will dominate. For late sat, 4 to 5 second period wind waves will
begin to influence the sig. Seas, resulting in 4 footers possible l
ate sat. Sea fog will be hit hardest on fro of the 2 days. As winds
veer to a SW direction, this will cut down on the fetch for the fog
to develop. The local waters from CAPE fear south to little river
inlet, this coastal configuration will see the best chance for the
fog to reach the immediate coast.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Unseasonably well-defined bermuda high
pressure will maintain a south-southwesterly wind across the
waters Sunday. The approach of a cold front from the west Sunday
should accelerate winds to around 20 knots during the day.

There's at least a chance conditions could reach small craft
advisory criteria. The front should finally cross the area early
Monday morning with a shift to northerly winds. Weak high
pressure to our north is expected to push the front down into
florida Monday night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for scz017-023-
024-032-033-039-059.

Nc... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for ncz087-096-
099-105.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Dch
long term... Tra
aviation... Rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi44 min SSW 6 G 7 62°F 55°F1031.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi33 min 58°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi84 min W 1.9 G 3.9 60°F 59°F1030.8 hPa
WLON7 29 mi44 min 60°F 59°F1031 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi84 min S 7.8 G 14 69°F 65°F1031 hPa
41159 34 mi32 min 69°F4 ft
41064 34 mi84 min S 9.7 G 12 71°F 69°F1031.1 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi44 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 59°F1031.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi2.6 hrsN 06.00 miFog/Mist65°F64°F97%1031.1 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S5S7S4S4S8SW7
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1 day agoW5S3S4S3S3S5S10S12S10S11S11S11S12S11S6S5S5S3S4S4S5S4S4S4
2 days agoE6E9NE6E4N3E5NE3CalmSE4S10S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Thu -- 05:47 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:47 AM EST     3.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.82.91.90.90.20.10.411.92.83.33.53.22.51.60.6-0-0.20.10.81.82.93.8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:04 PM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:52 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.82.41.81.10.50.100.30.91.62.22.42.321.50.90.3-0-0.10.10.71.52.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.