Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:17PM Sunday March 24, 2019 10:25 PM PDT (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 826 Pm Pdt Sun Mar 24 2019
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 826 Pm Pdt Sun Mar 24 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 02z...or 7 pm pdt...a 1023 mb surface high was about 250 nm sw of point conception and a 1004 mb low was 800 nm W of cape blanco or. A moderate large west- northwest swell will subside overnight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 250403
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
903 pm pdt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis 24 704 pm.

Mostly sunny skies are expected on Monday with warming
temperatures. A weak cold front will move into the area Monday
night into Tuesday bringing increasing clouds and a chance for
rain north of point conception. Another front moves in Tuesday
night into Wednesday bringing a chance of rain across the area.

Short term (sun-wed) 24 901 pm.

The latest satellite imagery indicates a ridge of high pressure
over the gulf of california this evening with an axis moving east
over southern california and nevada. A broad trough of low
pressure is centered is spinning counterclockwise over the eastern
pacific ocean about 1400 miles northwest of los angeles, or near
42n and 140w. Ridging aloft will slowly move east tonight while
the broad trough will slowly approach the west coast through
Thursday.

Surface pressure gradients, near neutral to slightly onshore this
evening, should trend more onshore over the coming days as the
trough approaches the west coast. Patchy dense fog could develop
for portions of the area tonight as surface gradients are near
neutral. The highest likelihood would place patchy dense fog near
the los angeles county coast on Monday morning around daybreak,
but patches of dense fog cannot be ruled for the ventura county
coast either. For now, the forecast has been trended toward the
more likely scenario.

***from previous discussion***
a surface front associated with the broad trough moving through
the eastern pacific will weaken as it moves into slo county and
northern sba county Mon night and tue. Rainfall with this dying
front is expected to be one tenth of an inch or less Mon night and
tue, except one quarter to one half of an inch across
northwestern slo county. Clouds will increase across l.A. Vtu
counties Mon night and tue. MAX temps should be down a few degrees
in most areas on tue.

Next cold front expected to bring rain threat to southwest
california Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with highest
probabilities and amounts favoring san luis obispo and northern
santa barbara counties. Rain chances begin across san luis obispo
and santa barbara counties on Tuesday night, spreading into
ventura and la counties on Wednesday. Current 12z model runs and
ensemble forecasts trending higher with rain chances for areas
north of point conception, so have trended pops upward accordingly
for these areas. Rainfall amounts are expected to range between
0.25 and 0.50 inches for san luis obispo and santa barbara
counties, with local totals up to 1 inch across the foothills of
northwest san luis obispo county (near hearst castle). For
ventura and la counties, rainfall amounts will generally range
between 0.10 and 0.25 inches, with locally higher totals possible
in the western ventura mountains. Snow levels will generally range
between 6000 and 6500 feet Tuesday night into Wednesday, then
lower to between 4500 and 5000 feet Wednesday night.

Long term (thu-sun) 24 155 pm.

On Thursday, some lingering low level moisture will bring partly
cloudy and cool conditions with a slight chance of morning
showers to areas north of point conception. Beyond Thursday,
models still exhibiting some differences with respect to ridging
across the region. The ec shows an amplifying ridge with dry
weather and a warming trend Fri and sat, with MAX temps climbing
into the 70s in the valleys and some coastal areas. The GFS is
farther west with an upper low dropping through the great basin
and rockies Fri and sat, and as a result shows much less in the
way of warming. Have hedged a bit toward the ec model as it has
been a bit more consistent later in the week.

Aviation 25 0122z.

At 23z, the marine layer depth was around 500 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was around 1050 feet with a temperature near 13
degrees celsius.

Vfr conditions are expected throughout the period, except for a
chance of sub-vfr conditions at coastal and valley terminals after
08z through 18z.

Klax...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, except for a
40 percent chance of ifr to MVFR conditions between 08z through
17z. Any east winds will remain less than 7 knots.

Kbur...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, except for a
30 percent chance of ifr to MVFR conditions between 08z through
16z.

Marine 24 808 pm.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small craft advisory (sca) conditions due to high seas
will be allowed to expire as of 9 pm this evening. For Monday and
Monday night as well as Tuesday afternoon, there is a 40 percent
chance of SCA level southerly winds across the NW portion of the
northern zone (pzz670), 20% for (pzz673). On Thursday into
Thursday night, there is a 60 percent chance of SCA level
northwest winds across the southern two zones of the outer
waters, then across all of the outer waters by Friday.

For the inner waters north of point sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain
below SCA levels through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, there is
a 40 percent chance of SCA level west to northwest winds during
the afternoon and evening hours.

For the inner waters south of point conception, high confidence
in current forecast through Wednesday, with conditions below sca
levels. There is a 40 percent chance of SCA level winds across
the inner waters Thursday afternoon and evening and possibly into
Friday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 8 am pdt Monday for zones
34-35-40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
A storm system could bring rain and high elevation mountain snow
to the region between Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Gusty winds are possible with this storm, especially in the
mountains. High surf is possible late Wednesday.

Public... Hall gomberg
aviation... Hall
marine... Smith
synopsis... Stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi35 min 9.7 G 12 9 ft1021.1 hPa
HRVC1 24 mi37 min 57°F 1021.9 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi85 min N 7 G 8.9 53°F 1021.5 hPa (-0.0)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 25 mi35 min W 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 56°F6 ft1021.7 hPa56°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi49 min N 1 G 1.9 56°F 1021.6 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi55 min 57°F10 ft
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 47 mi34 min 55°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi30 minWSW 310.00 miFair48°F44°F87%1022 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi32 minN 410.00 miFair51°F48°F89%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S7E3S4NW4W10W8SW3W6Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5NE4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3W3NW5W8W12W11
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2 days agoW4SW3SW3CalmN3N3NW3W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmW4W4W8W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
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Mon -- 01:17 AM PDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:16 AM PDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:39 PM PDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:34 PM PDT     1.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.94.84.33.42.31.30.60.30.40.81.52.22.83.13.232.62.21.91.92.22.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.