Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:55 PM PST (22:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:01PMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 203 Pm Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ600 203 Pm Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 1 pm pst, a 1032 mb high was centered in idaho, with a ridge extending to 600 nm nw of point conception, while a weak inverted trough was along the ca coast. This pattern is expected to change little through Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 152045
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1245 pm pst Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis 15 712 am.

Conditions will be warm and dry today then cooler tomorrow.

Onshore flow returns this weekend and will bring overnight and
morning low clouds and fog to the coast and adjacent valleys into
early next week and near normal temperatures through the week.

Short term (tdy-sun) 15 1235 pm.

Pretty quiet next few days on tap as gradients weaken and
eventually turn lightly onshore Friday. The NAM has been
consistent showing an increase in marine layer stratus from the
south tonight as a weak eddy circulation develops. Mainly just
southern la county tonight with possibly some dense fog as the
inversion is very low. Stratus will spread much farther north by
Saturday as southerly flow pushes it up the coast and around pt
conception. All this will bring a cooling trend to the area,
especially coast and valleys with highs dropping back down into
the 60s and 70s. By Sunday gradients will start flipping back
around to offshore as a trough passes through the northern rockies
and surface pressures rise over the great basin. This should help
warm things up a few degrees for coast valleys but still topping
out in the mid 70s which is pretty close to normal for this time
of year.

Long term (mon-thu) 15 1242 pm.

Next week's forecast still quite a bit uncertain, particularly mid
week on. Monday and Tuesday still quite confident in dry
conditions and a slight return of offshore flow, though quite a
bit weaker than we've seen recently. Gradients are at most half of
what they were with this last event and little if any upper
support so no real concern yet for gusty winds or critical fire
weather conditions. But should be enough to warm temps a few more
degrees Monday then leveling off Tuesday as onshore trends return.

Forecast gets messier after Tuesday as the medium range models
continue to have significant differences.

The ECMWF still has some light precip coming in Wed with a weak
trough while the GFS has a decent ridge over the west coast at
that time. Since none of the GEFS members show anything close to
this solution am discounting the ECMWF in favor of the dry GFS for
Wednesday. After that both models keep it dry until Thursday night
and Friday when the next trough arrives. Though here again there
are significant enough differences to have pretty low confidence
in timing and strength. Odds favor at least a little rain during
that time frame but still too early to get specific.

Aviation 15 1731z.

At 17z at klax, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top of 1000 ft and a temperature of 20c.

High confidence inVFR everywhere through this evening. Lifr fg
will likely form over the waters late tonight, with a 40 percent
chance of impacting klgb klax ksmo, and 20 percent chance at koxr
kcma ksba. Gusty NE winds will be weakening today.

Klax... High confidence inVFR through this evening. 30 percent of
lifr fg 12-17z Friday. High confidence in any east winds staying
under 7 kt.

Kbur... High confidence inVFR through Friday with light winds.

Marine 15 921 am.

High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through at least the weekend. Dense fog with very low visibility
is possible late tonight and Friday, especially south of point
conception including the san pedro channel.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw
aviation... Kittell
marine... Kittell
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi35 min 7.8 G 9.7 1016.6 hPa
HRVC1 24 mi37 min 63°F 1017.5 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi55 min WNW 5.1 G 5.1 63°F 1018.1 hPa (-1.3)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 25 mi35 min W 9.7 G 12 65°F 65°F1016.7 hPa63°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi79 min WSW 8 G 11 74°F 1016.8 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi25 min 65°F6 ft
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 47 mi34 min 63°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi60 minW 610.00 miFair81°F14°F8%1017.3 hPa
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA19 mi59 minW 1210.00 miFair69°F50°F51%1017.7 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi62 minWSW 910.00 miFair73°F21°F14%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W8W7W5CalmNE5NE5NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5W8
1 day agoSW10W10W7CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoSW10SW7NW4W3CalmNE4NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSW5W4W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
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Thu -- 05:35 AM PST     3.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:38 AM PST     3.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:27 PM PST     3.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:46 PM PST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.422.63.23.63.83.83.73.53.23.13.13.23.43.63.73.73.53.12.51.91.310.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.