Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:54PM Saturday December 16, 2017 6:55 AM PST (14:55 UTC) Moonrise 5:28AMMoonset 4:09PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 630 Am Pst Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Today..Western portion, W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Eastern portion, W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 15 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 13 seconds in the afternoon. Areas of smoke.
Tonight..Eastern portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt becoming ne 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Patchy smoke.
Sun..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt by the afternoon. Western portion, ne winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W around 10 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 13 seconds. Patchy smoke.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Areas of smoke.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less early, becoming W to nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt early, becoming 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 630 Am Pst Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst...a 1036 mb high was located 500 nm W of eureka. A 1008 mb low was centered near las vegas. Gale force nw flow is expected across the outer waters through tonight, with strong winds also affecting the northern inner waters and portions of the santa barbara channel. Gusty ne winds are likely near shore from ventura to santa Monica late tonight and Sun. Smoke from the thomas fire may locally reduce visibilities down to 2 nm for portions of the coastal waters S of point conception today.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 161216
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
416 am pst Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system over the west coast will displace a ridge of
high pressure this weekend. Some clouds and a cooling
trend will return to the area along with breezy northerly winds
Saturday. The wind direction will veer to northeast, become gusty
Saturday night, and impact the ventura and los angeles counties
into early next week. The temperatures will remain slightly above
normal through next week with gusty offshore winds starting on
Thursday.

Short term (tdy-mon)
synoptically... A positively tilted trough was digging south along
the central coast early this morning, and will continue to drop
south along the coast riding the eastern peripheral of the upper
ridge. The upper level trough will continue to dig down into nrn
baja and become cutoff by this afternoon. Clouds have developed as
expected across portions of the central coast and will fill in
across areas S of point conception through this morning due to the
height falls and cyclonic flow aloft. A strong NW surface
gradient was beginning to develop as a 1034 mb surface high was
located several hundred miles off the coast of eureka ca to a 1006
mb low over socal. With this NW gradient strengthening this
morning, sundowner winds have already started to develop across
the western portion of the santa barbara south coast. Winds across
refugio were already gusting into the 40s this morning. As the
upper trough continues to push south, the surface gradients will
start to shift to the north later this morning into this
afternoon. A wind advisory will be issued with the morning package
for the sba south coast and adjacent mountains through early this
evening. The NW to N winds will eventually shift to the n-ne
which will put most of the wind focus on the hills above
montecito later this morning into this afternoon. This could be
problematic for the firefighters in sba county today. A red flag
warning remains in effect for the same zones through 10 pm this
evening.

Winds are expected to diminish later this evening across the sba
south coast. As the trough continues to push towards the south,
cold air will settle into the great basin and cause the offshore
surface gradients to strengthen rapidly late this evening into
the overnight hours. The parameters are coming together for
another moderately strong santa ana do develop across the los
angeles and ventura county wind prone areas late this evening and
continue into Sunday afternoon. The combinator of a decent
surface gradient between lax-dag, cold air advection from the
high desert, and good upper level support as the upper low remains
located over NRN baja will bring the strongest gusts over the
area Sunday morning. Gusts 50 to 55 mph with local are expected
across the mountains with local gusts to 60 mph possible, while
valleys should see gusts between 40 and 50 mph. The ventura and
l.A. County coast between leo carrillo beach, malibu and the
hollywood hills will see gusts to 40 mph. A wind advisory will be
issued for these areas beginning this evening through mid
afternoon Sunday. By Sunday night, the upper support will not be a
factor as the upper low over baja will continue to push towards
the east. There will continue to be gusty offshore winds Sunday
night into Monday, but should remain sub wind advisory levels.

Some local gusts to 45 mph in the mountains is likely.

As far as temperatures, widespread cooling is expected today as
the trough moves through and ushers in cooler temps. Expect most
areas to be 6 to 12 degrees cooler with mountains over 20 degrees
cooler in some locations. Not expecting any freeze issues tonight
for coastal areas or around the ojai area, but Sunday night could
bring some possible freeze issues to a few central coast
locations and the ojai valley. There will be enough mixing of the
air in most areas with the winds to keep temps above freezing.

Just a reminder freeze and hard freeze warnings are no longer
issued for interior valleys, and the antelope valley as low temps
consistently lower into the 20s this time of year.

For Sunday expect warmer temps across the la vtu county coast and
coastal valleys, with cooler conditions across the interior
valleys, antelope valley and mountain locations. For Monday, the
offshore winds will be much weaker and this should allow for
widespread warming 3-6 degrees for most areas. Highs will remain
in the upper 60s to lower 70s across coastal areas, with cooler
conditions for the interior.

Long term (tue-fri)
the offshore gradients weaken considerably for Tuesday and
Wednesday with the persistent ridge remaining to our west keeping
us dry and temperatures just above normal. Winds will be lightly
offshore overall on Tuesday, then swing onshore on Wednesday and
could be breezy over the interior areas. At this point, both the
gfs and ECMWF are in generally good agreement with large scale
features advertising another inside slider dropping into utah
Wednesday night then retrograding toward the southwest and into
northern baja california by the end of the week. If this solution
holds, it looks like we are in store for another gusty northerly
wind event Wednesday night focused over santa barbara county and
the i-5 corridor, with gusty northeasterly winds Thursday into the
weekend. More fire weather concerns therefore are unfortunately
in the cards. Rain chances look bleak through christmas.

Aviation 16 1210z.

At 10z, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep at klax. The top of the
marine inversion was around 2000 ft with a temperature of 16c.

Patchy low clouds and fog will affect the central coast, the santa
ynez valley and coastal sections of ventura county through mid
morning, with ifr to locally lifr conds. Any low clouds should
clear by mid morning.VFR conds are then expected thru the period
in all areas, except for some local MVFR conditions in smoke
across portions of sba and vtu counties.

Gusty north winds will affect the santa ynez range and the south
coast of sba county thru this evening, with some llws and
moderate to strong uddf. Areas of gusty NE winds will affect a
good portion of l.A. And vtu counties tonight, with areas of llws
and moderate to strong uddf.

Klax... Moderate confidence in the 12z taf. There is a 30% chance
of ifr CIGS between 12z and 16z. There is a 10-20% chance that
east winds will reach 8 to 10 kt between 13z and 19z this morning,
and that NE winds will reach 8 to 10 kt between 09z and 16z sun.

Kbur... High confidence in the 12z TAF forVFR conds thru the period,
with just a 20% chance of MVFR conditions in smoke through 18z.

Lower confidence in the wind forecast for tonight. N winds could
gust to 20 kt after 09z.

Marine 16 315 am.

Across the outer waters, good confidence in gale force NW winds
through late tonight. Scas will have to be issued once the gale
warning ends late tonight, since winds will remain at SCA levels
across most of the outer waters through Sunday morning, then seas
will remain above SCA thresholds through at least the afternoon.

Winds will likely reach SCA levels again wed.

Across the inner waters north of point sal, high confidence in
sca levels winds through late tonight. There is a 30% chance that
sca conds due to hazardous seas will linger through Sunday
morning. Winds will likely reach SCA levels again wed.

Across the inner waters south of point conception, winds are
expected to reach SCA levels across the western portion of the
santa barbara channel this morning and continue through this
evening. SCA level NE winds are expected from ventura to anacapa
island south to santa monica, and from san pedro to catalina
island. These winds should create choppy seas and short period
wind waves which could affect avalon and two harbors. SCA winds
are possible again wed.

There will be areas of smoke from the thomas fire over portions
of the coastal waters through sun, mainly from the waters west of
ventura county through the santa barbara channel and over portions
of the outer waters. Visibilities could locally drop to 2 nm or
lower at times today.

Fire weather 16 400 am.

Red flag warnings in effect until 10 pm this evening for the
santa barbara county mountains and adjacent foothills of the south
coast. A red flag warning is in effect for the los angeles and
ventura county valleys and mountains from 1 am to 8 pm Sunday.

Red flag warnings have also been issued for the los angeles and
ventura county coasts from 6 am to 8 pm Sunday.

After the passage of an upper level disturbance, there will be
increasing upper level wind support and cold air advection that
will bring strengthening north to northeast winds across the
mountains and adjacent coastal foothills of santa barbara county
(including the thomas fire) through this evening, with gusts of
30 to 40 mph being common. Due to the stronger winds in the upper
atmosphere, there is the potential for locally stronger gusts
across exposed ridgetops today. The combination of these gusty
winds with humidities generally ranging between 10 and 20 percent
will result in critical red flag conditions across the santa
barbara county mountains and adjacent coastal foothills, mainly
east of santa barbara. As a result, there will be an increased
threat of very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme
fire behavior across the warning area,including portions of the
thomas fire incident. In addition, there will be increasing
northerly winds on Saturday across the ventura county mountains,
especially near the highway 33 and interstate 5 corridors.

For the remainder of ventura and los angeles counties, the flow
is expected to shift to the northeast by this evening, with a
threat of increased santa ana winds and low humidities late
tonight into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
likely. A red flag warning is in effect for late tonight through
Sunday evening for much of los angeles and ventura counties. An
additional santa ana wind event is possible next Thursday into
Friday.

Those near current wildfires need to stay aware of and follow
official evacuation orders. Everyone needs to exercise extreme
caution when handling any potential fire ignition sources... Such
as campfires, cigarettes, welding and brush clearing equipment.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 9 am pst Sunday for zones
34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 6 pm pst this evening for zones
39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 9 pm this evening to 3 pm pst
Sunday for zones 40-41. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 3 pm pst
Sunday for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 10 pm pst this evening for
zones 239-252. (see laxrfwlox).

Red flag warning in effect from 6 am to 8 pm pst Sunday for
zones 240-241. (see laxrfwlox).

Red flag warning in effect from 1 am to 8 pm pst Sunday for
zones 244>246-253-254-288-547. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Sunday for zone
645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst Sunday for zone
650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 am to 3 pm pst Sunday
for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect until 3 am pst Sunday for zones
670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
critical fire weather conditions are possible with gusty sundowner
winds Wednesday night and gusty offshore winds Thursday and Friday.

Public... Kaplan
aviation... Db
marine... Db
fire... Gomberg db
synopsis... Stu hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi26 min NW 23 G 31 58°F 59°F1007.5 hPa
HRVC1 24 mi44 min 57°F 1009.5 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi56 min N 31 G 33 56°F 1008.9 hPa (-3.2)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 25 mi26 min NW 18 G 23 58°F 60°F1007.1 hPa52°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi80 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 1007.1 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi26 min 60°F12 ft
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 47 mi26 min 61°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi61 minN 07.00 miOvercast46°F42°F87%1009.1 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi63 minN 08.00 miSmoke45°F41°F86%1006.5 hPa

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W5W6W9W7SW5SW3CalmS4W3N3NW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W5SW3W3SW5CalmNE5CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W8W4W3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:54 AM PST     1.79 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:13 AM PST     5.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:16 PM PST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM PST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.421.822.73.64.65.45.85.64.93.72.41.10.1-0.3-0.20.41.32.33.23.63.73.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Point Arguello
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM PST     2.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:29 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM PST     5.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:18 PM PST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:10 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:53 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:56 PM PST     3.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.22.12.32.93.74.65.25.65.44.73.52.210.1-0.4-0.30.31.22.12.93.53.63.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.