Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:02PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:59AMMoonset 9:42PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1007 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft, building to 9 to 12 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft, subsiding to 8 to 13 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers.
Tue night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 1007 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure to the north and hurricane maria southeast of the waters will maintain strong northerly winds through Wednesday. Maria will pass well east of the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. The storm will move northeast Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will build over the waters from the northwest for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 251419
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1019 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
Hurricane maria is expected to remain offshore and move slowly
north, with its center passing about 250 miles east of cape
fear Tuesday night. Dangerous beach and marine conditions will
prevail much of the week. A cold front should reach the area
late Friday, bringing cooler and drier air into next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1030 am Monday... A persistent area of low clouds along
with a smattering of coverage from high level moisture is
holding down temperature trends across the eastern two thirds of
the area this morning. I have adjusted the current grids and
high temperature forecast down accordingly. No other changes.

Previous discussion follows:
ridging aloft over the mid-atlantic and
5h low trough over the eastern gulf coast will gradually weaken
today as hurricane maria moves slowly northward. Maria will pass
well east of the area later today and tonight. The pinched
gradient between the surface high nosing down the coast and
maria is likely to create breezy conditions this afternoon and
evening, especially along the nc coast. Although there will much
deeper moisture compared to the last few days, precip chances
are not any higher. Maria will be spreading moisture below 500mb
over the region but the subsidence on the periphery of the
storm will keep the atmosphere capped. Despite precipitable
water values approaching 1.9 inches it appears measurable precip
will be hard to come by. Scaled back pop a bit for today,
taking out any mention of showers into the evening. Did hold
onto slight chance pop for the nc coastal counties overnight as
maria moves ever so closer. Do not have a lot of confidence in
this but there will be an abundance of low level moisture and a
bit of convergence right along the coast. High temperatures will
trend a little cooler today compared to Sun with low to mid 80s
expected. Lows will likely trend slightly warmer due to
increased boundary layer winds and moisture cloud cover, ranging
from mid 60s to around 70.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 327 am Monday... This period will witness a slow migration
north of maria, forecast to be a category 1 as it passes 250
nm east of CAPE fear late Tuesday night. Primary hazards are
powerful surf and large breaking waves due to the speed of the
long-period sets. As a result the 'high surf advisory' will
likely remain posted at least through Tuesday, laced with lethal
rip currents and clipping, swift beach run-up. A few outer
bands may be flung ashore Tuesday but no severe threats
anticipated, in fact moisture remains shallow to the extent only
showers are advertised. Peak low-level winds appear timed for
Tuesday and any landward moving rain bands could throw a 30-35
mph gust at the coast, favored mainly from CAPE fear northward
where greater easterly longitude in intrinsic there. Maximum
temperatures both Tue Wed mid 80s. Winds and a few clouds may
hold mint values up at around 70s both Wed Thu morning.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Maria, forecast to be well to the east-
northeast of the area at the onset of the period, will continue
moving north and east away from the area. A cold front will drop
into the area Thursday night and move out to sea Friday,
ushering in cooler and drier air for the weekend.

Outside of a small chance of showers Wednesday, mainly over
northeast sections of the forecast area, the extended range
looks mainly dry. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90
Wednesday and Thursday will cool to the mid 70s by Sunday. Min
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s will cool to the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Saturday night.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
As of 1045z... WhileVFR conditions will be dominant during the
period there will be a period of ifr MVFR morning near and along
the coast. Onshore flow well ahead of hurricane maria will
increase low level moisture which guidance suggests will
manifest as a bkn ovc deck between 2k and 3k ft. Looks like only
the coastal sites will see this MVFR stratus ceiling. Winds
will remain from the northeast through the period with speeds
8-12 kt, but along the coast gusts could exceed 25 kt later
today. MVFR ceilings will again be possible at the coastal
terminals overnight.

Extended outlook... MVFR ceilings may develop at the coastal
terminals as stratus advects onshore tue. Wind speeds at the
coastal terminals will gust as high as 15 to 25 kt through wed.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1030 am Monday... No changes to the coastal waters forecast
with the mid morning update. Rugged seas and strong winds will
continue for the next couple of days. Previous discussion
follows:
although hurricane maria remains well to
the southeast, the gradient between the storm and high pressure
to the north will maintain northeast winds today, becoming north
winds overnight. Speeds will stay in the 20 to 25 kt range
through the period and gusts will have the potential to exceed
30 kt. Seas, mostly made up of swell from maria, will range from
5 ft near shore to as high as 11 ft across outer edges of the
nc waters.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 327 am Monday... Sea heights will peak Tuesday as maria
moves slowly north about 250 miles offshore of CAPE fear, with
7-14 foot high waves on tap, highest offshore, and lowest
inshore along sc where sea bottom friction will consume a chunk
of the swell energy. Inlet turbulence may be expected during
outgoing tides much of this week. Large breaking waves will pose
a threat near sand bars, and the surfzone will extend much
farther than usual due to the large and long period waves. Winds
will peak Tuesday N 20-30 kt, and well offshore a few gusts to
35 kt will probably occur, although confidence is not high for
full gale conditions to be expected at this time. At a minimum,
sca cond are expected through this entire period.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... Northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt Wednesday
morning will diminish to 10 to 15 kt by Thursday morning. A
shift to the north then northeast will occur Friday and Friday
night. Seas of 4 to 7 ft south and 7 to 9 ft north will subside
through the period, falling to 3 to 4 ft by Friday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for scz054-056.

High surf advisory until 9 pm edt Tuesday for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for ncz106-108-
110.

High surf advisory until 9 pm edt Tuesday for ncz106-108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis...

near term... Iii shk
short term... Mjc
long term... Dch
aviation... Mjc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi50 min N 14 G 17 78°F 81°F1011.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi39 min 78°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi60 min NNE 12 G 21 77°F 78°F1012.1 hPa
WLON7 26 mi50 min 81°F 79°F1012.5 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi83 min NNE 1.9 83°F 1013 hPa73°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi60 min NE 19 G 29 78°F 80°F1010.9 hPa
41064 40 mi120 min NE 21 G 27 78°F 1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi12 minNNE 1410.00 miOvercast81°F72°F74%1012.6 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi15 minN 910.00 miOvercast81°F71°F72%1012.3 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi12 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast79°F71°F77%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE11NE13NE11NE7NE6E7NE7NE10N7N8N7N7N8N9N9N8N7NE8N8N10N12N11N14
1 day agoNE8NE8N9NE6NE73S3CalmN3E6E7N4NE6NE6N5N5N4N3N6N9NE10
G18
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2 days agoCalmNE33S6S5SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5N8N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:07 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:38 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:56 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.52.71.710.80.91.52.33.34.24.74.84.43.72.71.81.211.21.72.43.23.7

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.62.21.61.10.60.50.61.11.92.63.23.43.22.82.31.61.10.70.60.81.31.92.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.