Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:16PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:05 AM EDT (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 10:50PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 352 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft this afternoon. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms through the night.
Tue..SE winds 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 352 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift farther offshore through today. A strong cold front will approach from the nw tonight and push across the local waters and offshore during Sat. High pressure will follow late Sunday thru the early to mid-week period of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 281102
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
702 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
Thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening and overnight
and likely persisting well into Saturday until the unseasonably
strong cold front pushes thru late in the day or early evening.

Given the dynamics ahead of the front, strong to severe
thunderstorms may occur primarily during this evening and
overnight. Drier and cooler air will follow in the wake of this
system Sunday through early next week, with a warming trend to
normal summer heat by the mid to late week period of next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Friday... A weak area of low pressure will move up
along the coast early this morning, but will weaken further and
get nudged out to sea by mid to upper trough digging down from
the north. The latest models show most of the associated weather
to remain well off shore, but there may be some shwrs tstms
brushing the grand strand and CAPE fear coasts through the
morning hours. Once this moves east, the area should remain in a
lull in pcp for the most part with just some fairly minor sea
breeze convective development as it pushes inland, as well as
some development along piedmont trough farther inland. The flow
will basically be SW veering aloft to a more westerly steering
flow. Therefore, expect periods of sunshine with temps reaching
up around 90 most places.

Expect places west of I 95 to see an increase in convection
between 5 and 8 pm mainly due to localized convection along
piedmont trough and any pre existing boundaries. May see some
stronger storms and possibly some marginally severe with
moderate instability as temps reach around 90 and dewpoint temps
will be in the low to mid 70s. SPC has outlined a marginal risk
for all of south carolina into our local area with a slight
risk reaching down into nc from the north where better dynamics
and greater height falls exist. As shortwave digs south and
pushes a pre frontal trough east overnight, pcp water values
will increase up near 2.3 inches and shear increases within
0-6km. This will increase coverage and potential for damaging
wind gusts in strong to severe thunderstorms overnight.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s most places.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 400 am Friday... Convection will be ongoing at the start of
this period. The worse of the thunderstorm activity having
already occurred during the past evening and overnight but
enough dynamics to support a good chance to likely pops.

Vigorous and potent mid- level close low to drop to the mid-
atlantic states Sat night. As it does so, flow aloft will help
drive the cold front east and south of the area by late
Saturday. The pcpn will end as the cold front moves across the
area. Decent drying occurs in the mid and upper levels Sat night
into Sunday, however plenty of low level moisture to keep
stratocu cloudiness going Sat night into Sunday with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky condition. The closed low opens up Sunday
with the mid-level trof axis progged to swing across the fa late
sun morning thru Sunday evening. The cold pool aloft, excellent
pva and plenty of low level moisture, all will combine to
produce mostly cloudy skies with showers, and the possibility of
thunderstorms. Thus, a low chance pop will be required. With
the freezing level progged to drop as well as wbzs, pea sized
hail is a possibility with the storms that are able to develop
in the vertical, which will be difficult given the dry air
aloft. Will see a downward trend in temps including both maxes
and mins. Thus, for Sunday highs will only range from 80-85 and
sun night lows will see widespread 60s.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Chief headline this period 'early taste
of fall' as both t TD fall below normal for late july Sunday
onward, before a warmup to near normal values by Wednesday or
Thursday. Daybreak Sunday a seasonably robust cold front will be
positioned offshore, while canadian high pressure centered over
the great lakes exerts itself SE into the carolinas. The air
mass change will ring of an early fall feel with dewpoints
dipping deep into the 60s, erasing any muggy feel to the air.

Lingering low level moisture in wake of the front will result in
periods of cloudiness on north winds and many areas could
struggle to crack 80 degrees Sunday. Low-level drying should
bring plenty sunshine Tuesday onward while a warming trend
unfolds.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z...VFR conditions expected mainly late this morning
thru the afternoon hrs. The exception will be initially this
morning, spotty ifr lifr ceilings across inland terminals that
should scour out by 14z. And, spotty showers along the immediate
coast expected thru 17z, just not enough coverage to warrant
other than vcsh but did include MVFR ceilings. The afternoon
will see occasional CU sc ceilings in the 3k to 5k foot level
but should remain pcpn-less.

Dynamics aloft including the approaching S W trof, and at the
sfc, ie. Pre-frontal trof, and ample moisture with pws
increasing to eventually 2.0+ inches. Will all combine to
produce increasing showers and tstorms that will track from west
to east with storm motions running W at 10 to 20 kt this
evening, and increasing to W at 20 to 30 kt by 12z sat. At this
point have indicated vcts this evening and overnight with prob30
groupings for the actual convection.

Winds generally increasing by midday to s-sw at 5 to 10 kt
inland and becoming S 10 to 15 kt at the coast. Winds will
remain ongoing during tonight with wind directions becoming sw
thruout and speeds around 10 kt with some hier gusts especially
within thunderstorm activity.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr flight restrictions are likely in
thunderstorms ahead and along cold front sat. Some of the
storms may become strong to severe.VFR expected Sunday thru
Tuesday with Sunday possibly seeing brief MVFR from showers
and or ceilings during the aftn.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Light S to SW winds will increase as
they veer around to the SW to W as gradient tightens ahead of
an approaching cold front through tonight. Winds should back and
pick up slightly in afternoon sea breeze up to 10 to 15 kts but
winds will become 15 to 25 kts late this evening into the
overnight ahead of front. This will push seas up from 2 to 3 ft
today up to 4 to 6 ft by early Saturday. A small craft advisory
has been raised beginning later this evening. A weak area of low
pressure will produce some isolated convection across the
waters this morning but there will be a lull through late this
afternoon before strong to possibly severe thunderstorms move
across the waters overnight.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 400 am Friday... SCA conditions will be ongoing as SW winds
15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, veer to the wsw-w during
Saturday. Significant seas will run 4 to 7 ft with the 7 footers
primarily off CAPE fear. The waters from CAPE fear south to
little river inlet will overall experience the hier seas given
the better fetch associated with westerly winds. Wind speeds
will diminish below SCA thresholds for a period of time
associated with the cold front slowly pushing across the local
waters Sat evening. The sfc pg then tightens again with winds
becoming n-ne at 15 to 25 kt which may require a SCA or a scec
at the minimum. Will see a slight drop in the significant seas
to 3 to 5 ft thruout Sun thru Sun night. The primary driver to
the seas will be wind driven waves with periods around 5 to 6
seconds.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Atypical n-ne winds Sunday through a
good part of Monday in wake of an unseasonably strong cold
frontal passage. Wind direction veers to e-se Monday
afternoon evening and holds from the SE Tuesday. Because of the
unusually strong cell of high pressure pushing in from the nnw,
gusts to 20 kt will become common Sunday and Sunday night,
veering slightly from N to ne, and an 'exercise caution'
headline could be needed Sunday, with 4-5 foot seas outer waters
probable. A few storms early Sunday may be rumbling near the
west wall of the gulf stream and around frying pan shoals.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Saturday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... Rgz
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... Dch
marine... Jdw


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi47 min SW 7 G 8.9 79°F 82°F1011.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi66 min 82°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi57 min SW 7.8 G 12 80°F 82°F1012.5 hPa
WLON7 26 mi47 min 78°F 85°F1012.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi57 min SSW 9.7 G 16 79°F 82°F1012.9 hPa
41159 40 mi52 min 83°F3 ft
41064 40 mi57 min W 12 G 14 81°F 83°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
SE7
SE5
SE6
SE5
SE8
S12
S10
S6
S7
S9
S11
S13
S12
S12
SW6
SW5
G8
SW6
SW8
SW9
SW7
SW7
SW4
W3
SW8
1 day
ago
NE17
NE15
NE17
NE20
NE17
NE17
NE13
NE13
NE13
E15
E15
E15
E14
E13
E12
G15
E14
E10
E9
E9
E7
E9
SE8
SE10
SE7
2 days
ago
W6
S6
S9
S10
S11
S11
S10
S16
S13
G16
S13
S13
S11
SW8
W2
N9
SE4
SE6
NE6
NE18
NE19
NE21
NE18
NE16
NE17

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi69 minWSW 610.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1012.6 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi72 minSW 310.00 miFair77°F75°F96%1012.6 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi69 minSSW 66.00 miFog/Mist76°F75°F97%1013 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrE3SE6S6SE8S10S8SE10S11S10S8S5S6CalmS3S5S3S3S3S4SW4SW3CalmSW4SW6
1 day agoNE7NE6E7NE9NE8NE10E8E9E9E8E7E8E9SE9E6E5CalmCalmN3E5E5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW7W7W4E4E7E7--S5S5S6S6SE3NE4E4E10E11E13E8NE4NE4NE5NE5N4NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:13 PM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.23.320.90.1-0.10.212.13.244.44.23.62.61.50.70.40.51.1233.9

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:55 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:30 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.22.71.91.20.50.1-0.10.20.91.82.6332.72.21.50.90.40.20.30.91.62.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.