Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:11PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 755 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of tstms early this evening. Showers. A slight chance of tstms late this evening and early morning.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 232348
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
748 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday as a stationary
front lingers across the region and several low pressure areas
move along it. The front will finally move off the coast
Thursday morning. High pressure will build in from the west
Friday and Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west
early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 745 pm tue... The latest sfc analysis indicates that the
weak frontal boundary had drifted north and was located from
about duck across the albemarle sound to just north of
greenville. The front should continue to drift northward
overnight. Several weak lows will translate east across this
front tonight with the most significant one forecast to move
northeast of the outer banks after 06z. This should the front
back down near it's current position late tonight and early
Wednesday.

Radar and high resolution models continue to show fairly steady
moderate to heavy rainfall continuing across the region through
about 6z and will continue categorical pops through the evening
hours. The rainfall is then forecast to taper off rapidly by 8z.

Total rainfall of 0.75-1.5" will be possible, with locally
higher amts. Minor flooding of low lying areas will be
possible, and will continue to monitor the potential for
localized flash flooding given the high pwat values around 2
inches and potential for training cells. SPC continues to
outlook the region in marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this
evening with this threat likely shifting to the coast after
dark. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
As of 3 pm tue... Weak frontal boundary to the south will lift
back north into the area and stall in a similar location to
today... Just south of the albemarle sound. While upper low over
the upper mid-west slowly weakens as it dives southeastward. Spc
continues to outlook the region in a marginal risk of svr wx
instability will likely be the limiting factor again with
widespread cloud cover early, though shear will be increasing to
around 40kt. An isolated strong severe storm will be possible
with gusty winds and hail. Think the first part of the day will
remain generally dry or with isolated activity, with precip
chances increasing during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
As of 330 pm Tuesday... Wet and stormy period Wednesday night
and Thursday before drier weather arrives Friday into the
weekend.

A warm front will lift north of the area Wednesday evening
ahead of a small area of low pressure that will cross the region
after midnight. Aloft, a deep upper trough over the mississippi
valley down into the deep south will progress eastward towards
the east coast Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be a
brief break in shower thunderstorm activity Thursday morning,
with chance pops returning Thursday afternoon as a strong
shortwave rotates around the base of the upper trough and
through eastern nc.

Trended pops to coincide with weak surface low shortwave aloft
on Wednesday evening night, going categorical through 06z, then
transitioning heavier precip to the coast after 06z. Widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms will overspread the area
from southwest to northeast Wednesday evening. Mucapes of 500
to 1000 j kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50+ knots around
06z, supporting the potential for storms to become severe late
Wednesday night. SPC has our entire area in a marginal risk for
severe weather Wednesday night. In addition to the severe
weather threat, there will be a heavy rain threat as pwats will
approach 2 inches, though convection should move through the
region rather quickly from southwest to northeast, limiting the
potential for training cells long duration heavy rainfall. Will
continue to mention locally heavy rain and isolated strong
thunderstorms in the hazardous weather outlook.

The main cold front and steadier rains will move off the coast just
after 12z Thursday. During the afternoon, a few more showers or
thunderstorms will be possible as a strong shortwave rotates
around the base of the upper trough. The upper trough will
move off the east coast late Thursday with weak upper ridging
and surface high pressure building in from the west through
Saturday. Guidance suggests weak shortwaves will cross through
va nc in zonal flow aloft late Saturday into Sunday, warranting
slight chance to chance pops.

Temps will warm over the weekend as low level thicknesses build
from around 1390 meters Friday to 1420 meters on Sunday,
supporting MAX temps in the middle to upper 80s inland, and
with dewpoints well into the 60s by Sunday. From Sunday and
beyond a series of disturbances will move over the top of a
building 500 mb ridge, which when combined with warmer and more
humid airmass, will support shower and thunderstorm chances each
afternoon evening from Sunday on.

Aviation 23z Tuesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 745 pm tue... High confidence in sub-vfr conditions
expected through the TAF period as the region remains in very
moist and unstable regime through the period. Periodic
showers isolated tstms will continue through 6z then taper off
late tonight. Conditions will continue to bounce between MVFR
and ifr through this evening, before likely deteriorating to
widespread ifr late tonight. Could also see some low level wind
shear develop tonight. Think conditions will improve to MVFR,
possiblyVFR during Wed afternoon. Scattered showers storms
expected to redevelop Wed afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 400 pm Tuesday... SubVFR weather likely in periods of
heavy rain and thunderstorms through early Thursday morning. A
return toVFR is expected Thursday night through Sunday as high
pressure and drier weather builds across the region.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 745 pm tue... Stationary front is still bisecting the
northern waters near the albemarle sound duck, with E NE winds
10-15kt north of the boundary and S SW winds 15-25 kt south.

Seas now 3-5 feet north of oregon inlet, and 4-7 feet south.

Conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight, with
increasing winds and building seas. Models show the stationary
front pushing south through the northern waters late tonight and
early wed, with flow becoming pred southwesterly. Weak low will
continue to move along the front and off the va coast late
tonight and early wed. S SW winds increase to 20-30 kt tonight,
with seas building to 5-11 feet. Think winds will diminish a
bit early wed, then front will lift back north as a warm front
and stall in a similar location to this evening, across the
northern and central waters. N W winds 10-15kt early, becoming
e S 10-20kt by afternoon. Seas south of oregon inlet will remain
elevated, 5-8 feet early subsiding to 4-6 feet in the
afternoon. SCA continues for the coastal waters and pamlico
sound... Though could see a brief period of gusty winds for the
albemarle sound late tonight.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 400 am Tuesday... Poor boating conditions are expected
Wednesday evening through early Friday. Increasing winds and
elevated seas are expected late Wednesday through early Friday
with small craft advisory conditions expected for the waters
south of oregon inlet and for the pamlico sound Wednesday
evening night. South to southwest winds will increase to 20-30
kts Wednesday evening through Thursday evening with seas
building to 5-10 ft. A small period of gale force winds will be
possible Wednesday night from CAPE hatteras to CAPE lookout.

Behind the front winds shift into the northwest Friday at 15-20
kts with seas elevated at 4-7 ft. Better boating weather is
expected this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.

Winds will become southwest 5-15 knots with seas mostly 2-4 ft,
except for some 5 ft seas farther offshore. Nwps and wavewatch
guidance in close agreement through Saturday, with wavewatch
appearing reasonable for the extended portion of the marine
forecast.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
103-104.

Beach hazards statement from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening for ncz095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Wednesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Wednesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Jme cqd
near term... Jme cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Dag eh
aviation... Dag jme cqd
marine... Dag jme cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi47 min 76°F6 ft
41064 21 mi82 min SW 19 G 25 74°F 76°F1007.2 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi54 min SW 8 G 13 72°F 73°F1006.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi30 min WSW 12 G 17 72°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.6)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi82 min SW 19 G 25 75°F 75°F1006.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 6 72°F 75°F1006.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi61 min 75°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi82 min WSW 9.7 G 16 74°F 75°F1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi33 minSW 10 G 189.00 miLight Rain71°F70°F96%1007.4 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi92 minSW 16 G 243.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist73°F72°F96%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13SW11S12SW7NW4SW4SW3CalmCalmS6S14
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1 day agoNE33E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S9SW10SW10SW14SW15SW15
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2 days agoNE5NE7NE7N9NE10NE8NE9NE9NE4N5N7N10NE8NE10NE85N6N96NE7N11NE8NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Tue -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:58 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:25 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.61.21.82.22.32.11.60.90.3-0.2-0.3-0.20.31.11.92.52.82.82.41.810.3

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:22 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:56 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:27 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.1-000.20.50.91.21.31.210.60.3-0-0.2-0.200.40.91.31.61.61.41.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.