Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:31PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:10 AM EDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 1:51PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 405 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw late this morning, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop this afternoon. Showers likely early this morning, then a chance of showers late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. Showers likely, then a chance of showers.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 170744
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
344 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
The frontal boundary will push offshore this morning. A
stronger but dry cold front will push across the Wednesday night
with high pressure building in from the northwest late in the
week. Another cold front is expected to move through the area
this weekend, followed by dry and cool conditions early next
week.

Near term today
As of 300 am wed... The latest obs somewhat shows the front lift
north, but its hard to point the exact location as most of the
winds have become calm or light. A mid-level shortwave is
approaching the area and will move offshore early this morning
with the cold front pushing offshore through the morning hours
and winds becoming NW throughout the area as CAA increases.

Shower chances continue during the morning but quickly diminish
from NW to SE by late morning early afternoon with skies
clearing during the afternoon hours. Little diurnal temp range
expected with highs in the lower 70s NW sections to mid 70s
elsewhere and perhaps a few upper 70s southern coastal sections.

Short term tonight
As of 300 am wed... A drier and cooler airmass will continue to
filter through the region as high pressure builds in from the
nw. Expect clear skies and increasing CAA as overnight
temperatures drop into the mid upper 40s inland to mid 50s along
the coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 300 am Wednesday... H5 heights will build locally Thursday
through Friday as broad troughing slides off the northeast
coast. At the surface, robust high pressure over the missouri
valley Thursday morning will slide across the mid-appalachians
and over the mid- atlantic by early Friday. This cool, dry
airmass will work in conjunction with deep layer subsidence to
ensure dry conditions to finish out the workweek. Friday morning
will bring the coolest temps of the fall so far, with lows
reaching into the 30s for most areas away from the immediate
coast as the cool continental airmass, sourced from the northern
plains southern canada fills in, and clear skies and calm
conditions allow for very efficient radiational cooling. Though
current forecast lows are a few degrees warmer than where frost
formation would be expected, the overall trend has been cooler
for Friday morning, and frost will be a concern if the trend
continues.

Late Friday into Sunday morning, an h5 trough digging across the
north plains will absorb a southern stream jet streak over the
midwest, and progress over the eastern us. At the surface, warm air
advection ahead of an approaching cold front will begin late Friday
night. The primary band of pre-frontal moisture looks to bring the
greatest storm chances as it crosses the area Saturday. The overall
positive orientation of the upper trough and the unimpressive mid
level lapse rates suggest that severe weather is not of great
concern, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out.

The cold front will move over the coastal waters by early Sunday
morning, and continental high pressure building in will bring below
normal temperatures and dry weather Sunday through early next
week.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 200 am wed... A tricky aviation forecast for the next 2-3
hours as conditions transition to widespread MVFR conditions
with possible ifr. As the mid-level shortwave approaches the
area with the cold front, conditions will change to mostly MVFR
to brief ifr as the front is pushing through the area during
the early morning hours. Then conditions will improve as the
front is off the coast and rain showers end before noon at all
taf sites. Skies will clear during the afternoon withVFR
conditions to prevail through the night.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... Dry high pressure will keepVFR conditions
in place Thursday and Friday. Unsettled weather associated with the
passage of a cold front may bring periods of ceiling or visibility
restrictions Saturday.VFR conditions return Sunday, though
northeast winds will be gusty at times.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday night ...

as of 315 am wed... The latest buoy obs are showing winds are
shifting to the S SW 5-15 knots over the southern waters as the
front is lifting north. The front will continue to lift north
during the early morning hours as a mid level system and weak
surface low moves across the area. The front will then push
back south through the waters during the morning with winds
becoming NW 10-15 kt through the day and seas 2-4 ft. Winds
will increase as the secondary cold front pushes through tonight
leading to a surge of stronger winds afterward. Expect north
winds 20-25 knots tonight which leads to small craft
conditions. Seas will build 4-6 ft with the highest over the
central and northern waters.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... Winds and seas will remain elevated
through the morning Thursday, and a small craft advisory remains
in effect for all marine areas through early afternoon.

Conditions will improve later in the day Thursday as cold air
advection weakens, but conditions hazardous to small
craft inexperienced mariners will continue into Thursday night
for the coastal waters north of ocracoke inlet.

Benign conditions will prevail Friday and Friday night before a
tightening gradient ahead of an approaching cold front brings
southwest winds to 15 to 20 kt, with higher gusts Saturday morning.

Winds will shift to northeast and unsettled weather will prevail as
a cold front crosses the water late Saturday. Cool high pressure
will then build in behind the cold front beginning Saturday night,
likely bringing winds back to small craft advisory levels Sunday.

Conditions will gradually improve early next week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 2 pm edt
Thursday for amz130-131-135>137-156-158.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 11 pm edt
Thursday for amz150-152-154.

Synopsis... Bm cb
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Cb
aviation... Bm cb
marine... Bm cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi40 min 80°F4 ft
41064 21 mi62 min W 18 G 21 80°F 80°F1017.4 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi40 min WSW 8.9 G 13 78°F 77°F1017.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi70 min SW 11 G 13 1017.3 hPa (-1.4)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi62 min WSW 18 G 21 80°F 80°F1017.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi40 min W 7 G 9.9 78°F 80°F1017.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi40 min 78°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi62 min W 14 G 18 79°F 79°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi13 minW 510.00 miLight Rain75°F73°F94%1017.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi72 minSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F77°F97%1017 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9W4W3NW5NW10--NW7NW6NW4E9E7E7E6NE4E4NE3CalmCalm--CalmSE4SW12W15
G22
1 day agoS7S6S7S7SW4SW6SW4S13
G17
S9SW8SW12SW9S7S5S8S9S6S6S5SW6SW6SW10SW9SW7
2 days agoNE5NE4NE6NE7E7E8E8E56NE6E5E8--E5NE4NE4NE4E3SE3SE8SE7S7S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:21 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:46 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.9221.81.51.20.90.80.811.41.72.12.32.32.21.91.61.20.90.70.81

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.91.11.21.21.10.90.70.60.40.40.50.70.91.11.31.31.31.110.70.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.