Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:57PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:53 PM EST (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:16AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 701 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Areas of fog late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and early morning, decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 220010
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
710 pm est Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to extend over the area from the
western atlantic through Thursday and produce a very warm
southerly flow across the region. A backdoor cold front will
reach the virginia border Thursday night then lift back north
Friday. A cold front will move through the area Sunday night
into early Monday.

Near term tonight
As of 710 pm wed... No changes with early eve update. Will have
to monitor for potential period of fog, locally dense, again
late tonight into early thur. Have advertised areas of fog with
some vsbys dropping to around 1 2 mile late tonight, though some
indications that it may be as low as 1 4 mile or so, especially
inland E nc as well as the NRN obx.

Previous discussion... As of 230 pm wed... Record warm
temperatures are the story this afternoon, thanks to a record
breaking ridge which remains anchored offshore. Current
temperatures are in the low 80s across most of inland eastern
nc. Closer to the coast, temps are a bit cooler thanks to winds
out of the south, mostly in the low to mid 70s. Many records
across the area have already been broken, including new bern
(old 79), new river mcas (old 80), beaufort (old 70), cherry
point mcas (old 77), and likely at the coop stations in
greenville (old 80) and kinston (old 79). Expect perhaps another
degree or two of warming this afternoon, to add on to these
records. Some very isolated showers are present over the coastal
waters, but will keep mention of precip out of the forecast.

Very warm again tonight, as continued ssw flow will lead to lows
in the low 60s, with low clouds forming overnight which will
also aid in keeping it warm.

Short term Thursday
As of 235 pm wed... A very similar forecast to today is expected
Thursday, as all of the same influences on our weather are
present once more. Record breaking temperatures are again
expected as this impressive ridge remains strong offshore. High
temps may be a degree or two below highs today, however temps
will still climb into the low 80s inland, with low to mid 70s
expected closer to the coast. Dry weather is expected due to
continuing subsidence inversion around 850 mb.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 245 pm wed... Near record warmth will continue across the
region through late week as strong high pressure lingers
offshore providing a warm S SW flow into the region. A strong
cold front will produce a threat of showers by late weekend
into early next week.

Thursday night through Saturday... Strong high pressure off the
east coast coupled with anomalously high mid-level heights and a
warm S SW surface flow will lead to near-record to record level
high temperatures for the late portion of this week into the
weekend. Inland temperatures are likely to reach the upper 70s
to 80 degrees, with highs well into the 70s near the coast each
day. Mild overnight lows in the 50s are also expected. Friday
still looks dry on land, but there could be an isolated showers
off the coast of the obx. Deeper moisture will ride around the
periphery of the ridge on Saturday producing a small chance of
showers.

Sunday through Monday night... The GFS and european models have
become wetter for this period given increased precipitable water
values and lift ahead of approaching strong cold front. Pops
have been increased for this period with Monday Monday evening
looking to be the wettest period. Sunday will be quite warm in
the SW flow ahead of the front, but temperatures should be
considerably cooler, still above normal, but in the 60s for
Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Strong dry high pressure will build over
the region Tuesday and Wednesday. While cooler, temperatures
will still be above seasonal normal with highs mainly in the
upper 50s to mid 60s and lows primarily in the 40s.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 710 pm wed... Later tonight, low stratus and fog are
expected to develop once again, with conditions dropping to
ifr lifr levels after midnight and especially towards sunrise.

Ceilings 500 ft or lower are possible, and visibilities will
drop to 1 mile or less. Ifr lifr conditions will linger into
Thursday morning similar to Wed morning. By mid late morning,
vfr conditions should return to the region. Winds will be light
s to SW through the period.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 245 pm Wednesday... Anticipate mostlyVFR conditions
Thursday and Friday, except for some brief morning reductions in
patchy fog. An increase in lower ceilings, perhaps MVFR, is
possible Saturday and especially Sunday with a better coverage
of showers ahead of an oncoming cold front.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 245 pm wed... No change to the overall pattern with
atlantic high pressure continuing over the waters through
tonight producing southerly flow 5 to 15 kt and 2 to 4 ft seas.

Another round of sea fog is possible tonight, which would
reduce visibilities below 1 nm at times, especially north of
cape hatteras, and along the southern nc coast, where the
coldest sst's are observed.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 245 pm Wednesday... With high pressure offshore, expect a
continuation of SW winds around 10 knots or so with seas 2-4
feet. May see a brief swing around to a NW N wind Thursday night
and Friday before returning to SW Friday night. Gradient
increases as a cold front approaches from the west later on
Saturday into Sunday. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots,
with seas increasing to as high as 6-7 feet on Sunday,
especially over the central and Sunday waters.

Climate
Temps could approach and or break records this week.

Record high temps 2 21 (today)
location temp year
cape hatteras 75 1989 (khse)
greenville 80 1922 (coop)
jacksonville 78 2011 (knca)
kinston 79 2011 (coop)
morehead city 71 1971 (coop)
new bern 79 2011 (kewn)
record high temps 2 22 (Thursday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 76 1971 (khse)
greenville 80 2003 (coop)
jacksonville 77 2003 (knca)
kinston 78 2003 (coop)
morehead city 72 1971 (coop)
new bern 80 1980 (kewn)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sgk
near term... Tl sgk
short term... Sgk
long term... Ctc sgk
aviation... Ctc tl sgk
marine... Ctc sgk
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi53 min 69°F4 ft
41064 21 mi45 min S 5.8 G 9.7 71°F 69°F1031.7 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi53 min S 5.1 G 6 62°F 60°F1031.7 hPa (+0.7)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi53 min S 7 G 8 1031.8 hPa (+0.5)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi105 min S 5.8 G 9.7 69°F 69°F1031.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi53 min S 6 G 7 62°F 59°F1031.3 hPa (+0.7)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi54 min 59°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi45 min S 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 59°F1031 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi56 minSSW 810.00 miFair67°F66°F97%1031.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi1.9 hrsS 810.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S8S7S8S7S9S6S5S4S3SE4S4S7SW7SW8S10SW9S9SW8SW9S7S8S8
1 day agoS6S8S8S8S6S5S5S6S5S7S6S7S6S7S9S10S10S10S9S8S9S8S8S6
2 days agoNE10
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NE10NE7NE8NE8NE8NE8NE8NE5NE5NE4E4SE6SE8SE7SE6CalmS7S9S8S7S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Wed -- 05:05 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:41 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.61.10.50.1-00.10.40.91.41.81.91.81.510.50.1-0.2-0.10.20.71.31.82.2

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:12 PM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:45 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.210.70.40.10-00.10.40.711.110.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.100.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.