Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday June 23, 2018 4:21 AM EDT (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:21PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 321 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230758
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
358 am edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
An inland trough offshore high pattern will prevail over the
area today. A cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday and move through Monday into Monday night. High pressure
will build into the area Tuesday and gradually move offshore
Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 345 am Saturday... Looking for a repeat of yesterday with
temperatures and humidity but a better chance for more organized
storms with severe weather potential. Highs again this afternoon
will be in the lower to middle 90s, with heat indices of 100 to
105. Will continue to mention the higher heat indices in the
hwo. A few spots will touch 105, but not widespread enough to
issue a heat advisory.

Spc has upgraded our area to a marginal risk for severe weather
with the overnight update. Unlike the past few days wind
profiles shower a greater threat for severe weather with 0-6 km
bulk shears of up to 30 kts on both the NAM and gfs, with 0-1 km
bulk shears of 20 kts. Our likely trigger today will be the sea
breeze or a lee side trof moving through this afternoon. This
will be aided by an upper level short wave now across central
tennessee which will move through our northern forecast area
between 18z and 21z. Lapse rates up through 700 mb are steep,
and remain decent all the way up through 500 mb. With an
inverted v sounding and the shear profiles mentioned above,
damaging winds will be the main threat. The shear will also
support the potential for large hail as well and may allow some
of the storms to organize into shorter line segments that have
some longevity.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 345 am Saturday... Convection dies down early tonight and
with enough of a gradient through the night fog is not expected,
despite the possibility of a wet ground. Lows remain mild or in
the 70s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 340 am Friday... Hot and humid SW flow is expected to
continue through the weekend. A moderately strong cold front is
then forecast to move into eastern nc Monday, pushing south of
the region Monday night. High pressure will then build into the
area from the north Tuesday and Wed then continue to influence
the weather while moving offshore Thursday into Friday with
temps near normal. Broad troughing aloft will keep the threat
for convection in the forecast over the weekend. The cold front
will bring even better chances for precipitation from Sunday
night into Monday night, then much lower but not non zero
chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and storms are
expected from Tuesday into Thursday as high pressure builds
tends to inhibit widespread organized convection.

Saturday through Monday... Unsettled muggy weather is expected
during this period. Broad upper troughing is expected to
persist over the area over the weekend aiding lift of hot humid
airmass which will be in place across the carolinas leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will
continue the threat for showers and storms Mon mon night.

Tue through thu... The front is forecast to push south of the
region Tue as high pressure builds over the area from the
north into wed. The high is forecast to move offshore while
continuing to influence the weather thu. As is typical for this
time of year, there will be enough residual moisture and
instability behind the front to warrant low chance pops each day
for a few mainly diurnally driven showers or storms. Temps will
be closer to normal values in the low to mid 80s.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight...

as of 345 am Saturday...VFR through the TAF period will be the
general rule. Restrictions are possible 18z to 02z this
afternoon and tonight in thunderstorms.VFR beyond that through
tonight due to enough mixing of the lower atmosphere.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday ...

as of 340 am Friday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of occasional subVFR
conditions possible each day in scattered showers and
thunderstorms with the greatest threat Mon afternoon and
evening.

Marine
Short term through tonight...

as of 345 am Saturday... Southwest winds of 15 to 20 kts
continue and will gradually increase today as a pressure
gradient strengthens over the waters. Small craft advisories
look good, with the strongest winds over the pamlico sound and
central waters. Seas of 3 to 4 feet now will increase to 4 to 5
feet this afternoon and tonight, with a few 6 footers outer
central waters. Winds remain out of the southwest 15 to 20 plus,
with gusts to 25 knots.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday ... As of 340 am
Friday... Sw flow increases to 20-25 kt late Sat and continues
through Sun night ahead of the cold front. Winds Monday shift to
nw-n and diminish to 10 to 15 kt behind the front. Tue winds
are forecast to be NE 10 to 15 kt as high pressure builds over
the waters from the north. Seas build to 3 to 5 ft late sat,
then 4-7 ft Sat night through Sun night. Seas are then forecast
to subside to 3 to 5 ft late Mon morning and 2 to 4 ft tue
afternoon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Monday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Monday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 am edt Monday
for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 11 pm edt
Sunday for amz150.

Synopsis... Eh
near term... Eh
short term... Eh
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme eh
marine... Jme eh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi51 min 82°F5 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi57 min SSW 8.9 G 12 82°F 85°F1011.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi81 min SSW 14 G 17 1012.1 hPa (+0.3)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi51 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 80°F 80°F1011.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi51 min 79°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi73 min S 12 G 16 80°F 80°F1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi84 minSW 1210.00 miFair75°F75°F100%1011.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi83 minSW 1410.00 miFair81°F79°F94%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SE3SE3S7SW8SW8SW8SW11SW12SW12S14S14S14S15
G21
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SW14SW14
1 day agoSW8SW7SW7SW8W9SW11SW10SW11SW12SW13SW12SW14SW13SW13SW12W5SW11SW10SW13SW11CalmNE4E6E4
2 days agoCalmN4CalmNE3N3CalmE554S8S8S9S10SW9S7S5S4SW6SW7W7N16
G24
CalmSE5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:37 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:48 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:22 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.81.31.71.921.71.30.80.30-00.10.61.21.82.22.52.42.11.61.10.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:29 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.20.40.60.91.11.110.80.50.30.1-000.20.60.91.21.41.41.210.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.