Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:24PM Sunday October 22, 2017 1:27 PM EDT (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 7:35PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1108 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Rest of today..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221531
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1131 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to extend into the region from the
north while sliding offshore tonight into Monday. A strong cold
front will approach from the west Tuesday and move across the
area Tuesday night. High pressure will build over the area mid
to late week. A second cold front will approach late in the
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1110 am Sunday... Some adjustments to hourly temp and dew
point trends with update, otherwise forecast on track. Patchy
high clouds over eastern half of area will move offshore by
mid-afternoon but some CU scu development expected with
increased low level moisture along with cloudiness moving in
from offshore. Satellite indicates some enhanced CU approaching
cape lookout but no shower activity shown on radar, which is in
line with latest meso models of precip activity for this
afternoon and reflected in dry 12z mhx sounding with subsidence
inversion aloft. MAX temps around 80 inland to mid-upper 70s
outer banks.

Previous discussion
as of 645 am Sunday... A "dirty" ridge of high pressure surface
and aloft will continue over nc today then both features will
begin to move offshore tonight. Widespread mainly thin high
based cirrus clouds permeate the ridge and will continue to
stream ene across the region through the morning hours. Diurnal
heating and a slight moistening of the boundary layer due to
easterly low level flow should aid in the development of cumulus
cloud streets this afternoon. Locally dense fog patches are
expected to rapidly dissipate by 9 am this morning. It will be
continued warm with highs 75 to 80 degrees most locations and a
few of the normally warmer spots reaching the lower 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 645 am Sunday... The orientation of the surface high
ridging into the area from the north will produce a SE flow
across the area tonight. Expecting a little better low level
mixing which will limit fog development but sufficient moisture
will be present to lead to the development of stratus clouds
late. The nssl-wrf model is indicating isolated coastal showers
developing as coastal trough moves along the coast late. Current
mhx radar is depicting a a ne-sw oriented boundary 15-30 miles
off of the southern and central coast which is likely the
coastal trough the model is forecasting. Since the WRF is the
lone model with this solution will keep the forecast dry but
later forecasts may need to add a low chance pop if there is
more support for this in the 12z models. Lows will be mild with
mid to upper 50s inland and mid 60s beaches.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 320 am Sunday... A strong cold front will bring a good
threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms late Monday
through Tuesday followed by another shot of seasonably cool air
for mid to late next week.

Monday through Tuesday... Deep moisture increases ahead of the
cold front through the day Monday as mid-level trough becomes
more negatively tilted Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation
will develop from west to east late Monday with the best chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night through
Tuesday. The storm prediction center has placed our area in the
marginal threat for severe weather as this will be typical off-
season high shear low CAPE scenario. Likely pops continue in the
forecast Monday night into Tuesday before tapering from the west
late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warm temperatures expected in
the airmass ahead of the cold front with upper 70s likely Monday
and mid 70s Tuesday with a very warm night for Monday night with
lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday night through Saturday... A broad mid-level trough will
linger across the eastern united states for most of the middle
to late part of next week. Behind the front, rapid drying occurs
on Wednesday as dewpoints plunge into the 40s and stay there
through Friday. Wednesday and Thursday will be the coolest days
with daytime highs in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows
ranging from the mid 40s inland, lower 50s south coast and lower
60s outer banks. Moisture will start to increase again Saturday
ahead of another cold front which will bring in a decent threat
of rain Saturday night and Sunday.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 645 am Sunday... Patchy dense fog and low clouds will
dissipate around 9 am this morning thenVFR conditions will
prevail across the area through this evening. Late tonight there
will be potential for MVFR ceilings to develop as the flow
becomes se. Tougher call on fog as the models are indicating a
better chance for low level mixing though winds could still
decouple but any clouds that develop would then inhibit cooling
and thus fog potential.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 340 am Sunday... Periods of MVFR ifr ceilings and vsbys are
possible with fairly widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Monday night through the day Tuesday. The
precipitation should move east of the TAF sites by Tuesday
evening with much drier air moving in behind a strong cold
front.VFR conditions should prevail Wednesday and Thursday,
although some decent radiational cooling conditions could lead
to some fog, especially around kpgv and kewn both Wednesday and
Thursday mornings.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1110 am Sunday... No changes with update.

Previous discussion
as of 645 am Sunday... High pressure ridging into the area from
the north will continue to influence the weather as it begins to
slide east and offshore tonight. This will cause the flow to
veer from ne-e today to SE overnight. Winds will remain light
today, mainly 10 kt or less and increase slightly tonight to 10
to 15 kt, especially southern and central waters. Seas will
continue 2 to 3 ft today and build slightly to 2 to 4 ft
tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Sunday... Strong pressure gradient between strong
low pressure to the north and high pressure offshore will lead
to gusty S to SW winds and building seas Monday night through
the day Tuesday. Seas will build to as high as 10 feet over the
central waters Tuesday into Tuesday night. While winds subside
Tuesday night, seas are likely to remain elevated through late
week. A small craft advisory will likely be issued later today
starting tomorrow night for the coastal waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jme ctc
near term... Jme jbm
short term... Jme
long term... Ctc
aviation... Jme ctc
marine... Jme ctc jbm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 21 mi80 min ENE 9.7 G 12 75°F 1027 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi40 min E 8 G 12 76°F 72°F1027.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi28 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 1026.7 hPa (-0.9)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi80 min SE 5.8 G 12 77°F 76°F1027 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi40 min ENE 11 G 12 73°F 75°F1027.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi29 min 74°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi80 min ENE 12 G 19 74°F 74°F1027 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi31 minE 810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F66°F69%1027.7 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi90 minNE 710.00 miFair79°F64°F62%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SE7E7E5E4CalmNE3NE3NE4NE5NE4NE3NE4NE4CalmNE5NE5NE5NE5NE6NE7NE6NE7E6
1 day agoNW4S5SW7S6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE7NE54NE6
2 days agoE5E6SE7E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6N4NW5W5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Sun -- 03:28 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:49 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:08 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.610.60.30.30.61.11.72.32.72.82.62.11.610.50.30.40.71.21.722.22.1

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:56 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.210.70.40.20.20.30.50.91.21.51.51.51.310.70.40.20.20.30.60.91.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.