Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

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Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 6:01 PM EDT (22:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 512 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Scattered showers and tstms...mainly late.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt early. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds in the morning. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211953
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
353 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through eastern nc Wed night, becoming
stationary over the offshore waters this weekend, then
dissipating early next week. High pressure will build in from
the north Thu and fri. Then the bermuda high will extend west into
the area from the weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 350 pm tue... Deep cyclonic flow will continue over much
of the eastern us through Wed coinciding with a plume of
tropical moisture characterized by pw values AOA 2" and 850 mb
dewpoints AOA 14c. While shear currently is marginal, it should
increase late this afternoon as a shortwave rotates through the
mid level trough. Since this is occuring during peak heating,
both coverage and intensity of convection is expected to
increase late today with forecast mucapes 2500-3000 j kg
expected. This supports current SPC "marginal" severe outlook
with damaging wind gusts the main threat, and also supports the
wpc forecast of a "marginal" risk for excessive rains. The 00z
nssl- WRF indicates local rainfall amounts around 3" possible in
a short period of time which could produce flash flooding.

Coverage intensity are both forecast to decrease mid evening
with loss of heating and influx of drier air inland. Will
continue chance pops late, highest coast where gulfstream
activity is expected affect the immediate coast overnight.

Overnight lows will continue warm in the low to mid 70s inland
and mid to upper 70s coast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
As of 350 pm tue... Similar conditions continue Wed with deep
cyclonic flow though mean 1000-500 mb mean rh is slightly
lower. The cold front will be slowly moving through the area
during the afternoon and evening and will help to enhance
activity thus warranting a continuation of the "marginal"
severe weather and excessive rainfall outlooks. Main threats
will be isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rains.

Will continue high chance pops. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
As of 350 pm tue... A cold front will push through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. A pleasantly cooler and much
drier airmass will move into the region Thursday and Friday and
continue into early with rain chances the next 5-7 days well
below normal and moderating temps early next week.

Wednesday night... Could see some strong storms Wed evening as
the cold front crosses the area, with rain chances ending by 12z
thu most areas as the front clears the area late. Lows will
range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s coast.

Thursday through early next week... Will only be carrying slight
chance pops as the gfs ECMWF models are mainly dry through
early next week with little to no QPF indicated for the next 5-7
days as high pressure builds in initially from the north
through late week then from the atlantic from the weekend into
early next week. Expect temps below normal, with highs in the
low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s inland low 70s
coast through late week. The upper ridge will strengthen over
the area late weekend into early next week as main surface high
is centered just to the east allowing the flow to come back out
of the south mon. In response temps will gradually warm over
the weekend and early next week with still below normal rain
chances expected through tue.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
Short term through 18z Wed ...

as of 206 pm tue... PredominantlyVFR through today and tonight
with sub-vfr periods in scattered to numerous showers this
afternoon, with a lingering threat at inland sites into tonight.

Surface winds will remain out of the SW at less than 10 knots
tonight; guidance has hinted at some lower clouds CIGS at inland
sites but confidence is too low to include in tafs for now.

Long term Wed night through Sun ...

as of 350 pm tue... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
produce brief sub-vfr conditions with a cold frontal passage wed
night. A drier airmass will then move into the area Thu into
the weekend with little to precipitation expected and predVFR
conditions.

Marine
Short term through Wed ...

as of 350 pm tue... The pressure gradient will tighten up across
the area tonight and Wed as an upper trof surface cold front
approaches from the west. In response, winds will increase to
15-25 knots on the coastal waters and pamlico sound into wed,
and 10-20 knots elsewhere. Seas will build to 4-6 feet late
tonight into early Wed for the waters south of oregon inlet, so
will continue the small craft advisory for these zones.

Long term Wed night through Sun ...

as of 350 pm tue... The cold front will cross the waters late
wed night with winds shifting to NE 10-20 kt behind the front
thu and ne-e 10-15 kt Fri and around 10 kt sat. Winds are
forecast to be l v Sunday. Seas will subside 3-5 ft Thursday and
2-4 ft Friday, then becoming 2-3 ft Saturday and Sunday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 10 pm edt Wednesday for
amz156.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Wednesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt Wednesday for
amz158.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Jme bm
aviation... Bm ms
marine... Jme bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi31 min 83°F4 ft
41064 21 mi53 min SSW 14 G 18 83°F 82°F1015.2 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi31 min SSW 18 G 21 82°F 83°F1015.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi121 min SSW 13 G 18 1015.6 hPa (-1.8)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi53 min SSW 18 G 23 81°F 82°F1015.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi31 min S 18 G 20 82°F 81°F1015 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi31 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi53 min S 16 G 21 81°F 81°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi63 minSSW 17 G 2410.00 miFair84°F78°F82%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW20SW18SW18
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Tue -- 02:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:18 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.31.61.81.81.61.310.60.40.40.611.41.92.32.42.42.11.71.20.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:27 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:25 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.40.50.70.9110.90.80.60.40.30.20.30.50.711.21.41.31.210.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.