Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 6:33 AM EST (11:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 9:50PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 242 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to flat.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. NEar shore, seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, except 1 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 3 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 121121
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
621 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region today and tonight.

Another strong storm system will affect the area Friday into
the weekend. High pressure will gradually build in from the
west early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 615 am wed... No changes planned. Some cirrus beginning to
reach inland areas and models suggest will cont much of the day
and poss become a bit more opaque at times.

Prev disc... Ridge of high pres will build across the region
today with very light winds. Low and mid lvls are dry however
mdls all show good deal of upper lvl moisture pushing in from
mid morning on. Hard to determine how opaque the high clouds
will be but shld see periods of pc skies this aftn. No change to
high temps with upper 40s NE to low mid 50s rest of region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 215 am wed... High pressure will continue over the region
tonight with mclr to pc skies. Good radiational cooling will
lead to lows around 30 inland to mid upr 30s beaches.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 215 am wed... The first half of the long term will be very
wet, with dry for the second half. GFS and ECMWF in good
agreement concerning the placement of what will be a cutoff mid-
level low moving across the deep south. The primary concern
with this system continues to be the threat of heavy rainfall,
as a consensus of the gfs ECMWF shows 2-4 inches of rain. With
already swollen creeks and rivers, this could cause additional
flooding of low-lying areas. Strong gusty SE S winds will also
be likely with this system. Tweaked the onset of rain on Friday
over the outer banks, with dry conditions in the morning, then
chance pops in the afternoon. Continued categorical pops Friday
night across the entire area. Instability for thunder continues
to look marginal Friday night, so kept chance wording for
thunder. Plenty of wraparound moisture for showers Saturday
lingering into Sunday. HPC now favoring the progressive gfs
solution for early next week with low pressure moving off to the
northeast and high pressure building in from the west, instead
of the ECMWF which favors developing low pressure just off the
coast early next week.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 615 am wed...VFR conditions should dominate thru the period
as high pres builds across. Low and mid lvls will remain dry
however mdls show good deal of upper lvl moisture spreading in
today into the evening so expect sct bkn cirrus.

Long term Thu through Sunday ...

as of 145 am wed... Mainly sub-vfr conditions through the period
as a very wet slow-moving system passes through the southeast.

Surface winds south around 5 knots thu, southeast 10-15 knots
fri, southwest 10-15 knots Sat and north 10-15 knots sun.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 615 am wed... Will let SCA drop N of oregon inlet and S of
ocracoke top of the hour as seas cont to grad subside. Will
increase gust wording early a few zones per latest obs.

Prev disc... High pres will build in from the W today and cont
over the area tonight. NW winds 10 to 20 kts prior to daybreak
will diminish to light and variable by evening and cont very
light tonight. Seas of 4 to 7 feet early will subside to 2 to 4
feet today and be mainly 2 to 3 feet tonight. SCA conts N of
cape lookout for seas. As seas subside SCA will come down for n
and southern wtrs this morn and central wtrs by early aftn.

Long term Thu through Sunday ...

as of 215 am wed... Thursday will be the only good boating day
in the long term period. A strong storm system will be passing
through the southeast producing an extended period of hazardous
winds seas beginning Friday and continuing through Sunday. Winds
thu will be mainly west to northwest 5-10 knots with seas 2-3
feet. Friday into Saturday the flow will veer from southeast to
southwest, eventually becoming northwest Sunday. Seas will
build, peaking Friday night into Saturday as high as 9-12 feet
in the central waters from oregon inlet to ocracoke. Strongest
winds will peak Friday into Friday night at 20-30 knots, with a
few gusts to gale force possible in the central waters. Winds
will slowly diminish Saturday into Sunday as low pressure moves
off to the northeast, but seas take longer to subside from south
to north, remaining elevated into early next week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz152-
154.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz150-
156.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Hsa
aviation... Rf hsa
marine... Rf hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi34 min 68°F5 ft
41064 21 mi26 min NNW 16 G 21 53°F 68°F1021.3 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi40 min NNW 4.1 G 6 38°F 49°F1022.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi34 min NNW 9.9 G 12 1022.2 hPa (+1.3)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi26 min NW 14 G 19 52°F 64°F1022.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi34 min W 6 G 8.9 39°F 62°F1022.8 hPa (+1.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi34 min 55°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi26 min WNW 12 G 16 44°F 55°F1022.6 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi97 minNW 6 mi39°F30°F73%1022.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi96 minW 510.00 miFair36°F30°F82%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N12
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N13NW14NW12N14NW13NW13NW14NW11W6W6W4W4W4W4W4W5W7W10W9W5NW6
1 day agoN18
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2 days agoNE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Wed -- 04:18 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM EST     2.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:08 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:50 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:07 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.20.80.40.30.30.611.51.92.22.221.61.20.70.40.20.30.611.41.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:31 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:45 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:37 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.110.80.50.30.20.10.20.50.811.21.31.210.70.50.30.10.10.30.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.