Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 9:29 AM EDT (13:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 12:21AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 625 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late this morning and this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft early, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201039
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
639 am edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak boundary is expected to move into the area today, then
lift back to the north tonight. A stronger front will push
through the area late Thursday and Thursday night. That front
will lift back north across the area Friday night and early
Saturday. Another front will impact the region Monday.

Near term today
As of 640 am wed... Latest sfc analysis looks like weak boundary
is near the albemarle sound and northern obx early this
morning, though tough to say exactly, with high pressure
anchored offshore. Did increase sky cover across the ne
sections and northern obx this morning based on satellite
trends. Patchy fog should dissipate in the next hour or so.

Challenging forecast today with many forecast specifics hinging
on the exact boundary placement, which is uncertain. The upper
ridge weakens slightly today with frontal boundary in the
vicinity. The NAM pushes the boundary further south than most
guidance, keeping a cooler more N NE flow across much of the
area. Trended more towards the GFS and ECMWF with the boundary
pushing towards the southern coast this morning, then lifting
back north towards NE nc this afternoon and early evening. Heat
advisory continues for most of the area this afternoon and early
evening, mainly along and south of hwy 264, for heat index
values once again climbing to 105-109 degrees. Low level
thicknesses values and 850 mb temps 19-20c support highs again
well above normal. Expect temps a few degrees cooler than
yesterday, but hot temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s will
result in hot and humid conditions across enc. Elsewhere for
the northern tier counties and obx, at this time expect heat
index values to remain below 105 deg.

Spc has upgraded all of the region to a marginal risk of severe
wx this afternoon and evening. Expect scattered convection to
develop this afternoon initially aided by the seabreeze, sfc
frontal boundary, and lingering outflow boundaries. Most high
res models show increasing convective coverage, becoming more
organized, later this afternoon and evening as shortwave energy
moves north of the area. Forecast soundings show a very unstable
atmosphere with mu CAPE values 3-4000 j kg, lis up to -9c, 0-6
km shear 10-20 kt, and pwats about 2-2.25". Strong to severe
storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, and it still
looks like the primary threats will be the potential for
damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am wed... Expect ongoing convection early evening,
though should begin to diminish with loss of heating and push
off the coast per agreement in high res guidance. The weak
boundary will continue to lift back northward, and or wash out,
with S SW flow returning to the area. Another muggy night with
lows in the 70s. There will be the potential for patchy fog
and or low stratus to develop late.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 350 am Wednesday... A slightly stronger frontal push into
the area is expected late Thursday into Friday. Ridging then
returns Friday night through weekend with a stronger upper
trough and surface front expected to move through eastern nc
Monday. Result will be somewhat of a roller coaster effect on
temps and generally at least a scattered threat of showers and
tstms each day.

Thursday through Monday... Front to north of area Thu morning
will push south during afternoon and to near ilm Thu night and
will again be a focus for convective development, with some
potential for heavy downpours and a few strong to severe storms.

Will cap pops at 50% Thu and Thu night due to uncertainty in
location and timing of best rain threat (thu or Thu night). High
pressure moving across to north will keep front stalled to
south where it will dissipate Friday but models continue to
indicate scattered convective threat across our area.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of
inland thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend, and will keep
typical 20% coast 30% inland pops both days. Stronger upper
trough and associated cold front moves in from NW Monday and
will have 40-50% chance pops all zones Sun night through mon
night for now.

Hot and humid conditions will continue Thursday with highs
mainly low to mid 90s and heat indices around 105 inland. Some
relief behind the front for Friday with highs in mid to upper
80s. Heat returns for weekend with around 90 for Saturday and
low-mid 90s Sunday, then slightly cooler due to
clouds precipitation for Monday.

Tue and wed... The front is forecast to push south of the region
as high pressure builds over the area from the north. As is
typical for this time of year, there will be enough residual
moisture and instability behind the front to warrant low chance
pops both days for a few mainly diurnally driven showers or
storms. Temps will be closer to normal values in the low to mid
80s.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 640 am wed... Patchy MVFR fog will dissipate in the next
hour or so, with predVFR conditions returning. Scattered
showers and storms expected to develop this afternoon and early
evening, with periods of sub-vfr possible. Patchy fog and or low
stratus will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning,
though confidence is low at this time.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 350 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible each day in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Some sub-vfr CIGS will be possible with the ne-e
flow behind the cold front Friday into Friday night.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 640 am wed... Challenging winds forecast today, with weak
boundary impacting the waters. Latest surface and buoy data
indicate mostly NE to W winds 5-10 kt with seas around 2 ft
north of hatteras and 3-5 ft south of hatteras. A weak boundary
is forecast to drop south into the waters this morning, then
lift back north or wash out this afternoon and tonight. Expect
ne winds across the northern waters early today, with wnw wsw
across the southern waters, generally 5-15 kt. As boundary lifts
north later today and tonight, expect the winds across all
waters to become more S SW 10-20 kt, strongest south of
hatteras. Nwps and wavewatch initializing about 1 ft too low
south of hatteras this morning. Seas around 2 ft north of
hatteras this morning, and 3-5 ft south. Expect seas to subside
to 2-4 ft by late morning, highest south of hatteras, and
continue into tonight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 350 am Tuesday... Moderate southerly flow 15-20 kt with
3-4 ft seas are expected Thu as the gradient increaes ahead of
an approaching cold front which is forecast to move south of the
waters late Thu night. The flow behind the front Thu night into
fri night will become ne-e 10-15 kt with 2 to 4 ft seas. Sat
return southerly flow develops then strengthens to 15 to 20 kt
in the afternoon with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. The moderate
15-20 kt SW flow continues Sat night and Sunday with gusts to 25
kt and 3 to 5 ft seas possibly building to 6 ft over portions
of the outer waters.

Climate
Near record high temperatures will be possible again today.

Record high temps 6 20 (today)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 2011
greenville 99 1970
jacksonville 97 1994
kinston 104 1924
morehead city 93 2011
new bern 98 1994

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for ncz044-079>081-090>095-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme cqd
marine... Jme cqd
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi82 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 80°F1011.5 hPa
41159 31 mi30 min 80°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi42 min SW 6 G 8 83°F 79°F1011.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi30 min 79°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi82 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 79°F1011.1 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi42 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 84°F1011.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi82 min W 9.7 G 14 80°F 81°F1011.8 hPa
WLON7 39 mi42 min 82°F1011.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi90 min E 2.9 G 2.9 1011.5 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi34 minENE 37.00 miFair84°F77°F80%1011.8 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair77°F75°F96%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W6NW6W7W7W76W7W7SW7SW5NW8SW7SW7SW7SW94W4W3CalmW3CalmN3NE3
1 day agoW66SW3W5W5NW9
G15
S7S12S6S6SW5SW4SW5SW5SW4W5W7W8W6W7W7W6W8W9
2 days agoSW7SW5SW8W9W5S8SW8SW9S9S8SE9SW5S6SW7SW6SW6SW10W8SW8W8SW6W7W4SW7

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Wed -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:40 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.23.332.31.50.70.1-0.2-00.51.222.6332.621.20.60.30.20.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:27 AM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:52 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:16 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.14.64.6431.80.7-0.1-0.30.10.923.13.94.34.13.52.51.50.70.30.411.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.