Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 26, 2019 5:57 AM EDT (09:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:50AMMoonset 11:50AM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 348 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to flat after midnight.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 260901
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
501 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will settle off the southeast coast today.

Another backdoor front will move into the region Monday, but
then will quickly retreat north Tuesday, with very hot
temperatures expected across the region through at least the
middle of next week. A cold front is expected to move into the
area Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 325 am Sunday... Convection along the leading of a weak
mid-level shortwave have dissipated with only a few light
showers now remaining just west of our cwa. With the diminishing
trend on radar, will remove pops from our forecast for the
remainder of the overnight hours. From daybreak forward, skies
will be partly cloudy with hot temperatures for late may as
expansive surface ridge builds again from the west once again.

Highs today will be in the low mid 90s, except mid 80s outer
banks. Morning stratus over roughly the western half of the cwa
should dissipate shortly after daybreak. Weak boundary
interaction could produce a pop-up shower or storm during the
heat of the day, but the coverage will be isolated and only
slight chance pops are in place along the sea breeze.

Short term tonight
As of 325 am Sunday... Skies will be mostly clear tonight with
very warm temperatures. Lows should generally be in the low 70s
inland and mid 70s outer banks. Any isolated showers or storms
that pop up during the afternoon should quickly end by shortly
after dark.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 330 am Sunday... Upper ridging over the southeast coupled
with surface high pressure offshore will bring hot and mainly
dry conditions through much of the work week. The ridge breaks
down late in the week with a frontal system approaching from the
bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday
through Saturday.

Monday through Thursday... Upper ridging will be centered over
the deep south with surface high pressure centered offshore.

Models continue to show a series of weak impulses remnant
convective complexes moving through the NW flow aloft Monday
into Tuesday with a backdoor front pushing in the area Monday
afternoon which dissipates early Tuesday. The weak mid level
energy combined with convergence along the front and sea breeze
boundaries may be sufficient to trigger isolated thunderstorms
across parts of the area with somewhat better chances across the
northern tier. The upper ridge axis shifts eastward late
Tuesday into Thursday with dry and hot conditions prevailing.

The main story this week will be the hot temps with 850mb temps
around 17-20c, possibly peaking as high as 23c Wednesday as
fcst in the 00z ecmwf. Highs Monday expected in the mid 90s
inland to upper 80s coast, however winds become NE to E across
northern sections behind the front which will keep temps in the
mid to upper 80s across the northern obx. The front dissipates
by Tuesday with highs expected in the mid to upper 90 inland to
mid to upper 80s beaches. The heat peaks Wed with highs around
100 inland to low to mid 90s beaches, then the upper ridge
begins to slide offshore Thursday with high in the upper 90s
inland to mid upper 80s along the beaches.

Friday and Saturday... The upper ridge slides offshore late in
the week with near zonal flow developing across the eastern
conus. A dampening shortwave trough and surface frontal boundary
approach from the west bringing increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms across eastern nc. Temps will not be quite as hot
as earlier in the week but still well above average with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and mid 80s along the
coast.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through 06z Monday ...

as of 110 am Sunday... Satellite and sfc observations show a
large area of stratus now moving into the southern and
southwestern CWA with koaj already showing MVFR ceilings. Will
forecast a period of MVFR ceilings this morning as the stratus
continues to advect slowly north. Some isolated tstms are also
possible overnight, especially at kpgv and perhaps kiso.

Vfr ceilings will emerge around by sunrise as the influence of
the shortwave shifts away from the area.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 4 am Sunday... Upper ridging will keep generally dry and
hot conditions across the area this week with predVFR
conditions expected. Cannot rule out a widely scattered shower
or storm Monday and Tuesday as weak impulses ride over the
ridge but coverage expected to be minimal. Early morning fog
chances also look minimal but cannot completely rule out patchy
late night early morning fog or stratus.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 330 am Sunday... Moderate SW winds at around 15 knots
expected today, with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas should
generally be 3-4 feet with a few 5 footers possible over some of
the outer waters. Not much change tonight as winds continue at
10-15 knots, but will veer to more SW W toward morning.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 4 am Sunday... A backdoor front will push into the area
Monday, then dissipate Monday night into Tuesday while high
pressure remains centered offshore through the period. SW winds
around 5-15 kt Monday morning, becomes E to NE Monday afternoon
and Monday night. The front dissipates early Tuesday with winds
veering to S around 10-15 kt Tuesday afternoon, then becoming
sw Tuesday night into Wednesday. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt
late Wednesday through Thursday as gradients tighten ahead of an
approaching cold front. Seas 3-5 ft north central waters and
2-4 ft south Monday subsides to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

Seas begin to build back to 3-5 ft Thursday.

Climate
Record or near record warmth is expected for much of the week.

Record high temps for 5 26 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 100 1953 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 88 1962 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1927 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1953 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 2004 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 27 (Monday)
location temp year
new bern 96 1989 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 86 2004 (khse asos)
greenville 96 1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1989 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 28 (Tuesday)
location temp year
new bern 93 2014 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 87 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 97 1916 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 2004 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 95 1967 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 29 (Wednesday)
location temp year
new bern 95 1982 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 91 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 95 1918 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 92 1991 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 1991 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 1967 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Ctc sk
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi50 min SW 14 G 18 78°F 77°F1018.3 hPa
41159 31 mi28 min 76°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi40 min S 12 G 14 78°F 78°F1019 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi50 min SSW 9.7 G 14 76°F 77°F1018.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi28 min 76°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi50 min SSW 14 G 18 77°F 77°F1018.7 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi40 min SSW 8.9 G 12 76°F 78°F1020 hPa
WLON7 39 mi40 min 78°F 80°F1018.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi58 min S 14 G 16 76°F 1019 hPa (-0.7)70°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi62 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast77°F73°F88%1018.9 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi61 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast78°F73°F85%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE6E4NE4E5SE11SE11SE7SE10SE9S12SE11S12S11SE9SE8S7S10S8S5S7S7S6S4
1 day agoSW10SW9W8W11
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NW11NW8W4W4CalmE10E10E8E8E6E4E6
2 days agoN3N4NE3Calm446W7S9S10S11S12
G17
S10S8S8S9SW6SW4SW5SW4SW5W6SW6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Sun -- 01:44 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.72.82.62.11.61.10.70.50.60.91.522.42.62.62.31.81.30.90.60.60.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.