Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday March 30, 2017 4:22 PM EDT (20:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 9:34PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 330 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through late Friday night...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming S 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the night.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 330 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A storm system will impact the waters tonight through Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend only to be followed by another storm system early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 301922
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
322 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Showers and storms will move in from the west and southwest
late this afternoon and evening, and again overnight into
Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. A cold front
will follow late Friday, with a drying trend into the weekend
as high pressure takes hold. Low pressure early next week will
bring more showers and thunderstorms. Brief high pressure may
be followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms next
Thursday and Thursday night.

Near term /through Friday/
As of 3 pm Thursday... Storms over central sc will continue to
advance nne and may impact darlington and marlboro counties in the
late afternoon to early evening. Loss of heating is expected to de-
intensify the storms after 7pm-8pm, but there is a 2-3 hour window
where strong wind gusts may be experienced mainly west of i-95
before the storms weaken. After 2am, increasing convergence offshore
associated with a warm front will spawn convection that will be
directed northward into the CAPE fear region. A axis of elevated
precipitable waters along the warm front of around 1.5" will support
occasional downpours. 1 km helicity fields suggest a few cells may
undergo weak rotation as they move onshore. A low-level jet of
around 35 kt could help to produce gusty surface winds brought down
by the convection. After 7am-8am, a squall or broken line of tstms
will be moving east and approaching i-95, associated with the main
short-wave impulse. Bulk shear parameters will support potentially
40-50 kt wind gusts embedded in this line, which looks timed to
clear the coast by midday/early afternoon. Despite this, showers and
a few storms may linger through afternoon, beneath a cold pool and
in particular if the Sun pop out and low-level warming aids in
booting column instability, and small hail cannot be ruled out
behind the main squall earlier in the day. No cold advection and a
mild day is on tap for Friday. The SPC maintains a marginal risk of
severe weather Friday morning.

Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/
As of 3 pm Thursday... Brief period of weak cold advection sets up
fri night as shortwave passes north of the area and cold front moves
offshore. Cold advection has a small affect on Fri night lows,
dropping most ares into the mid 50s by Sat morning. However this is
still some 10 degrees above climo. Deep westerly flow aloft fri
night transitions to northwest Sat and Sat night as the 5h trough
exits and shortwave ridge starts to build over the southeast.

Combination of mid level ridging and modified continental high will
keep temperatures mild Sat and Sat night. Highs Sat will be in the
mid to upper 70s with a few 80s across inland areas. Lows Sat night
are affected by some radiational cooling due to surface ridge axis
moving into the region late. Lows still end up above climo, but only
by a few degrees. Ridging will also keep skies mostly cloud free
through period with no chance of rain.

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/
As of 3 pm Thursday... Seasonable to slightly mild on Sunday as
mid level ridge remains overhead, though moving eastward. Also
progressing eastward will be a potent southern branch shortwave.

This feature will lead to increasing cloud cover and rain
chances later Monday. Though weakening in depth slightly it does
maintain a neutral tilt and would not be surprised to see small
severe weather chances called for in future SPC outlooks. Any
lingering wet weather Tuesday morning should quickly shift off
the coast by midday or early afternoon though naturally a day 5
forecast is often subject to timing tweaks. Wednesday finds mid
level ridging over the area again but the pattern remains quite
amplified and progressive. Broad, high amplitude troughiness
should push a cold front into the area on Thursday bringing
another chance for possibly significant showers and
thunderstorms. Some models indicate that we may be in for quite
a cooldown following this frontal passage.

Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/
As of 1715z... Scattered to broken cumulus, and stratocumulus,
with ceilings occasionally dropping to MVFR. Late tonight
into Friday, ceilings to lower with showers and thunderstorms
increasing from SW to NE with the coastal terminals the last to
experience widespread shower and thunderstorm activity aft 9z,
aft 5z inland terminals. Expect ceilings and visibilities to
drop to MVFR and ifr in rain and tstms. Some tstms may produce
surface wind gusts as high as 45 kt.

Extended outlook... MVFR to ifr conditions likely persisting
into at least the first part of fri. More showers and
thunderstorms developing Mon and through Mon night will have
the potential to produce flight restrictions.

Marine
Near term /through Friday night/...

as of 3 pm Thursday... A small craft advisory is posted for
tonight through most of Friday as a strong low pressure system
moves from the central appalachians eastward across virginia. Se
winds tonight will increase to 20-25 kt, veering to S and sw
tonight into Friday. Seas generally 5-7 feet late tonight and
much of Friday. Tstms will impact the waters from S to N in the
pre-dawn hours to a few hours after daybreak Friday, and then a
squall line will track from west to east across the waters
around midday into early afternoon. Some of the storms may be
strong to severe, with locally higher winds and waves in and
near the tstms. Dominant periods of 9-10 seconds early this
eveinig will shorten to 6-7 seconds making waves steeper. Slow
improvement can be expected late Friday into Saturday as winds
go NW to W and ease.

Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Cold front will be moving across the
waters as the period begins. Strong southwest flow ahead of the
front will become west and then northwest Fri night into
Saturday. Gradient will slowly weaken following the passage of
the front and speeds should drop from 20 to 25 kt ahead of the
front to a solid 15 kt by daybreak sat. Little if any cold
advection following the front will keep winds in the 10 to 15 kt
range sat. Cool surge moves down the coast Sat night with north
to northeast winds increasing to a solid 15 kt as the period
ends. Seas running 4 to 8 ft at the start of the period will
diminish overnight as wind speeds drop and flow becomes
offshore. Seas will be under 6 ft by Sat morning and 2 to 4 ft
by midday. Seas continue dropping into Sat evening before
slightly increasing late Sat night as cool surge arrives.

Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Northeast winds Sunday will veer as high
pressure centered to our north progresses east. The high will
not be particularly strong nor bookended by significant fronts
and this will keep the wind speeds down. With light winds and in
the absence of much swell energy seas will be rather
diminutive. Additional veering to SE or even S on Monday as a
healthy system approaches from the west. The strength of teh
upper wave will allow a surface low to move east across the gulf
states. High pressure trying to hold on well off the coast will
ramp up the gradient to where advisory appears likely. The post
frontal veer to a more offshore flow will try to push some of
the larger waves further out to sea but it appears to occur
gradually, as does the abatement of wind speeds. Flags may still
be needed Tuesday.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Saturday for amz250-252-254-256.

Near term... Mjc
short term... Iii
long term... mbb
aviation... Mjc


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi52 min ENE 15 G 19 60°F 62°F1017.2 hPa
WLON7 26 mi52 min 68°F 64°F1017.7 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 30 mi97 min E 11 63°F 1018 hPa56°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi53 min 59°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi74 min E 14 G 21 60°F 59°F1018.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi74 min E 18 G 25 66°F 73°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
E13
E12
E9
E8
E11
E10
E13
E13
NE11
E13
E11
E9
NE10
NE10
N7
N11
NE13
NE15
NE15
NE16
NE14
NE15
NE16
G20
NE18
1 day
ago
S20
S21
S14
S13
SW11
SW6
G11
--
S7
SW5
G8
W3
NW5
NW6
G9
NW7
N7
N6
NW8
N7
G11
N11
NE13
NE15
NE14
E13
E15
E15
2 days
ago
S13
S14
S12
S8
S10
SW6
SW8
S5
SW5
SW8
S7
S11
SW12
SW4
SW5
SW7
SW8
SW13
G16
W9
G15
NE2
G5
S11
S19
S20

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi26 minSE 11 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F51°F48%1018.4 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi26 minSE 1310.00 miFair70°F55°F59%1018.2 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi29 minE 15 G 2010.00 miFair68°F55°F63%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrN8SE8SE7E6E7E8SE10SE8--E10E10NE8E9N4N5N6NE9E8NE6NE7E8SE10SE13SE13
1 day agoS10S11CalmE5S3CalmN3Calm--SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE8NE9NE12NE9------NE5
2 days agoS11S11S9S6S5S4S5SW4S5S5S6SW3CalmCalmSW3S4SW8SW12
G18
W9S83S9SE8S10

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:09 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-00.30.91.41.61.61.51.30.90.60.40.1-0.10.10.511.41.51.41.310.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:43 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:06 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.81.90.90.1-0.4-0.5-00.922.93.23.12.61.80.90.2-0.4-0.5-0.10.823.13.83.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.