Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday September 24, 2017 10:23 PM EDT (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 9:03PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 903 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft, building to 11 ft.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft, subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft, building to 12 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
AMZ200 903 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The expansive circulation associated with hurricane maria will bring hazardous marine conditions for much of the week. The worst of the conditions are expected through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 250143
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
943 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
Hurricane maria is expected to remain offshore as it moves very
slowly north, with its center passing within 250 miles of the
cape fear coast through Wednesday. Hazardous beach and boating
conditions will continue for much of the week. A cold front is
expected to reach the area Friday, bringing cooler weather for
next weekend.

Near term through Monday
As of 900 pm Sunday... Hurricane maria will continue to bring
hazardous beach conditions with strong and frequent rip currents
through Mon and thus the national weather service continues the
high rip current risk hazard. These strong rips will be
enhanced around the time of low tide, but there is no time when
it will be safe to be in the water for much of the week. Low
tide is at 5 am and 6 pm mon.

The surf will be high and rough as well with powerful breaking
waves as high as 6 to 8 ft thus the national weather service
continues the high surf advisory. These breaking waves will
allow for at least minor beach erosion, especially during the
time of high tide. Also, water levels will be high and there is
a small risk for minor coastal flooding around the time of high
tide on mon, especially from CAPE fear to surf city. High tide
is at 11p tonight and noon on mon.

The h85-h5 layer remains dry and the low-level trajectory will
keep any showers offshore until perhaps later Mon afternoon and
then primarily for the immediate CAPE fear coast. Otherwise
considerable high clouds will remain across the area through the
period. Cloud layers will lower and thicken along the coast
during mon.

Breezy conditions are expected to continue, mainly along the
coast, where the northeasterly pressure gradient will increase
most significantly. NE to nne winds will gust as high as 25 to
30 mph at the beaches with lesser wind gusts as you traverse
inland.

Lows will be mainly in the 60s tonight. Highs on Mon will be in
the lower to mid 80s.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... This period will basically function off the
indirect and possible direct effects generated by hurricane maria as
she tracks northward during this week over the open waters of the
atlantic remaining well offshore from the u.S. Mainland which
includes the local fa. The exception is the outer banks of nc which
will see maria's closest approach.

Once the generally troffiness associated with jose off the mid-
atlantic and new england coasts dissipates, modest to strong upper
level ridging will take it's place. This will slow maria's forward
northward movement with models indicating her well offshore from
cape lookout to CAPE hatteras latitude by Wed morning. With this
track, enough of it's expansive pressure field and moisture will
result in breezy nne-nnw winds across the local area during this
period with the hiest winds along the immediate coast, especially
from CAPE fear northward.

As for pcpn chances associated with maria, locations across coastal
southeast nc will be under a slight rw- chance beginning late mon
night thru tue. The ilm sc CWA will remain pcpn free this period.

With the mid-levels remaining quite dry thruout this period, the
cirrus shield associated with maria will encompass all of the ilm
cwa. The lower levels will see a moisture increase across all
locations, with the deeper low level moist profile across areas from
cape fear northward. Pcpn will be produced from the low level clouds
and remain below 0.10 inches total thruout this period. Temperatures
will continue to run at 1 to possibly 2 categories above the climo
norms. The thick cirrus shield and eventual low level clouds will
limit highs across the CAPE fear northward region, but still above
climo.

Beaches along the entire ilm CWA will be under a high surf advisory
and high rip current threat for the majority of this period. This a
result of 6 to 9 foot long period maria swell affecting the local
waters for an extended period of time.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Maria, forecast to be well to the east-
northeast of the area at the onset of the period, will continue
moving north and east away from the area. A cold front will
drop into the area Thursday night and move out to sea Friday,
ushering in cooler and drier air for the weekend.

Outside of a small chance of showers Wednesday, mainly over
northeast sections of the forecast area, the extended range
looks mainly dry. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90
Wednesday and Thursday will cool to the mid 70s by Sunday. Min
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday night
will cool to the upper 50s to lower 60s by Saturday night.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
As of 00z... Will maintain aVFR forecast at all the terminals
through the valid period. The center of hurricane maria will
continue to move N and at its closest approach, it should pass
within 250 miles of the CAPE fear coast tue-wed.

The wind direction will be nne to NE through the period. Expect
wind gusts to about 20 kt at the coastal terminals for much of
mon. High level ceilings are expected to lower to 4-6 kft at the
coastal terminals by late morning or early afternoon on mon.

Will introduce some stratus at kilm, but will keep the layer sct
near 1 kft with this forecast package.

Extended outlook... MVFR ceilings may develop at the coastal
terminals as stratus advects onshore Mon night and tue. Wind
speeds at the coastal terminals will gust as high as 15 to 25 kt
mon through wed.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 900 pm Sunday... Hazardous seas continue across the waters
with powerful swell energy generated by hurricane maria
dominating the wave spectrum. Wind energy continues to increase
atop this swell with wave heights as high as 7 to 11 ft this
eve. Seas are expected to grow another foot or two through mon.

The wind direction this eve was from the NE and will slowly back
to the nne on mon. Wind speeds will be up to 20 to 25 kt with
gusts up to around 30 kt, highest across the outer waters.

Hurricane maria is expected to continue a slow track to the n,
with its center expected to be within 250 miles of the CAPE fear
coast as it moves to our N through wed.

Showers should gain proximity through mon, perhaps increasing in
number Mon night.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... SCA conditions will continue across the
area waters thruout this period. With the local waters on the
westward side of hurricane maria as she tracks northward,
remaining well offshore from the local area, wind directions
will run from the nne- N Mon night into tue, and from the nnw-nw
there-after as maria's eye moves north of the local latitude.

The sfc pg associated with maria, will be conducive to wind
speeds in the 15 to 25 kt range south of little river inlet and
20 to 30 kt north of this inlet. Could see gale gusts from cape
fear northward thruout this period.

Significant seas this period will be dominated by the 13-16 second
period, ese-se maria swell. The short period locally produced nne-
nnw wind waves will create choppy conditions on top of this swell.

This a result of a limited fetch. The area inlets to and from the
atlantic as well as the mouths of CAPE fear river and winyah bay
will experience dangerous and hazardous navigating conditions.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt Wednesday
morning will diminish to 10 to 15 kt by Thursday morning. A
shift to the north then northeast will occur Friday and Friday
night. Seas of 4 to 7 ft south and 7 to 9 ft north Wednesday
am will gradually subside through the period, falling to
2 to 3 ft by Friday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for scz054-056.

High surf advisory until 9 pm edt Tuesday for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for ncz106-108-
110.

High surf advisory until 9 pm edt Tuesday for ncz106-108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Near term... Rjd srp
short term... Dch
long term... Ran
aviation... Rjd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi54 min N 13 G 16 77°F 81°F1013.1 hPa
WLON7 26 mi54 min 76°F 79°F1014.1 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 30 mi99 min NE 5.1 78°F 1014 hPa73°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi55 min 79°F7 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi76 min NE 12 G 19 78°F 78°F1013.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi76 min E 19 G 27 79°F 80°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi28 minNNE 510.00 miFair72°F64°F79%1015.4 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi28 minNNE 1010.00 miFair75°F66°F76%1014.6 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi31 minNE 310.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7N4NE6NE6N5N5N4N3N6N9NE10
G18
NE13NE13NE11NE9NE11NE13NE11NE7NE6E7NE7NE10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5N8N7N8NE8NE8N9NE6NE73S3CalmN3
2 days agoW4CalmNE5CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm333CalmNE33S6S5SW3CalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:46 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.20.40.91.21.41.41.31.10.80.50.40.20.10.30.71.11.41.51.51.310.8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:11 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:29 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.51.81.20.60.40.40.81.62.53.23.53.432.41.71.10.60.50.61.11.82.52.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.