Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:36 PM EST (19:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 955 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Rest of today..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 955 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal trough will linger near the waters today as a wave of low pressure moves up the coast. A cold front will sweep offshore tonight followed by high pressure on Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will move up the coast and in the vicinity Thursday and Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211615
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1113 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A coastal trough just off the carolina coasts and an approaching
cold front from the northwest will combine to produce light
pcpn late this afternoon thru tonight... With the coastal areas
seeing the best shot of seeing measurable rainfall. High
pressure will follow and slowly build in from the west Wednesday
thru Friday. At the same time, low pressure will pass just
south and east of the area Wed night thru Thu with the immediate
coast again seeing the best chance for rainfall. A strong cold
front will approach from the west during Sat and will sweep
across the forecast area and off the coast to well offshore by
late Sat night. Strong, dry and cold canadian high pressure will
follow Sunday thru early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 930 am Tuesday... Coastal trough offshore today will try
and make its way west. However it may struggle to do so into
tonight as weak surface wave low moves up the coast. Surface low
in eastern tx would normally help the trough move onshore, but
this feature is pushed south by another shortwave dropping south
through the impressive 5h trough.

The first in a series of shortwaves rounding the base of the
trough later today will head up the southeast coast this evening
and overnight, lifting the developing surface wave low with it.

Isentropic lift will generate some light to moderate rain along
and just off the coast overnight. If the trough does briefly
move onshore it would be most likely to do so during the first
half of the evening and would lead to slightly higher rainfall
rates along the immediate coast. Did not make a lot of changes
to previous forecast but did slow northward progression of rain
a little bit. Cloud cover will keep highs in the 60s today with
inland areas, which started out 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the
coast, ending up in the lower 60s while the coast will reach
upper 60s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 330 am Tuesday... First thing Wednesday morning, weak low
pressure accelerating ene, will be pulling away from the fa
taking any patchy pcpn and cloudiness with it. A coastal trof
along the immediate coast, will get pulled back over the atl
waters during the morning. A cold front will drop from the nw,
and sweep across the fa by midday and off carolina coasts before
stalling offshore and parallel to the coastline Wed night.

Will observe partial clearing during Wed aftn and evening as
weak CAA occurs via partial thicknesses schemes ie. 1000-850mb
along with 850mb temps dropping. MAX temps will run in the mid
60s slightly cooler than MOS guidance but normal for this time
of the year. Min temps Wed night will also run about normal with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

For Thu thru Thu night, models are defying unity with respect to
the final wx outcome of this time period. This is in reference
to a northern stream 5h S W trof that drops to the SE states
during Thu and progresses eastward Thu night. Sfc low pressure
will develop along the stalled front offshore from sc late thu
and accelerates to the ene Thu night, pulling away from the ilm
cwa. The european and to a degree the NAM are both drier than
the GFS fcst. This likely due to a less amplified or a flatter 5h
s W trof when both compared to the gfs. Will stay closer 12
utc guidance has jogged eastward. I did trend the forecast into a
dry bias, where the sfc low with best pops and QPF staying off
the ilm CWA coast. Will still exhibit low chance pops, mainly
well east of the i-95 corridor to the immediate coast. By
daybreak fri, any pcpn and cloudiness across the fa will be
accelerating off to the ene, away from the fa. For MAX temps
thu, will see widespread 50s via european MOS due to clouds and
low chance pcpn. On a side note, the wetter GFS mos guidance
indicates upper 40s for Thu highs well inland, ie. Along and
west of the i-95 corridor. Friday morning lows will exhibit
climo norms, with upper 30s to near 40 covering it.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 245 pm Monday... The extended forecast will be mostly
influenced by an almost standing wave trough across the eastern
third of the conus. Ridging will remain focused across the four
corners region. There remains some indication of a couple of
systems moving across the baroclinic zone to the east but the
12 utc guidance has jogged eastward. I did trend the forecast
in the early periods a little drier so its essentially a dry
forecast throughout. Overall temperatures will run a little
below normal starting out on the cooler side of climatology
with a brief warmup for the weekend. This will be followed by
another cold shot early next week.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 18z... Mainly jet cirrus today. A developing low pressure
system near florida will track up the eastern seaboard this evening,
bringing a chance for rain mainly at the coastal terminals. After
the low passes to the northeast, winds will swing around to
northwest, with a brief period of ifr ceilings vis expected.

Conditions should improve after daybreak on Wednesday.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected by Wednesday afternoon.

Vfr Thursday. Low confidence for MVFR to ifr conditions near the
coast late Thursday through Friday night in low clouds and rain.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 930 am Tuesday... Weak coastal trough over the waters today
and tonight will keep winds light, generally 10 kt or less.

Direction will vary between n-ne to e-se depending on the
location of the trough, which will try and move onshore late in
the day. Confidence is low on whether or not the trough will
move onshore but regardless of its location the weak gradient
will maintain light winds well past midnight. Late in the
period, as cold front moves east of the waters, offshore flow
will develop and speeds will increase to 10 to 15 kt. Lack of
any real cold advection limits gust potential. Seas around 2 ft
this morning will build as surface wave to the southwest moves
northeast, peaking at 3 to 4 ft late in the period.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... Wednesday will be highlighted with caa
under northerly winds in the morning veering to the NE in the
aftn and night. Wind speeds will run 10 to 20 kt Wed into wed
night as CAA and a tightened sfc pg contribute to the winds.

With significant seas building to 3 to possibly as high as 6 ft
during Wed night into thu. Majority of the seas will come from
short period, 5 to 6 second wind waves. For Thu thru Thu night,
depending where the sfc low develops and intensifies relative to
the ilm coastal waters, will determine both winds and locally
produced seas. GFS again wants to intensify a low that is just
short of a gale late thu. Will follow this trend but keep the
low further offshore along with the best sfc pg. Will definitely
see scec and possible SCA conditions Thu into Thu night and will
highlight in the hazardous wx outlook. Sig. Seas will hold in
the 3 to 6 ft range Thu into Thu night with a few 7 footers
possible.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 245 pm Monday... Northeast winds of 10-15 knots will
prevail through the first two days of the extended marine
forecast. There may be a few hours of 15-20 early on but overall
10-15 should do it. By Saturday a modest southwest flow will
develop ahead of another cold front which should move across
later in the weekend. Significant seas will trend downward from
3-5 feet early to 2-4 and possibly 1-3 feet by Saturday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Iii
short term... Dch
long term... Shk
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi49 min NE 13 G 14 61°F 63°F1019.8 hPa
WLON7 26 mi49 min 70°F 59°F1019.2 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 30 mi112 min ENE 8 61°F 1020 hPa53°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi38 min 64°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi89 min ENE 12 G 16 62°F 64°F1020.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi149 min SSE 7.8 G 14 70°F 68°F1021.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi41 minE 610.00 miOvercast66°F52°F61%1020.8 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi41 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F53°F61%1020.3 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi44 minESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F53°F59%1019.6 hPa

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Last 24hrN5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E5E6E5
1 day ago--------W6NW7NW10----------------------N10NW9N8N8NW4NW6
2 days agoS9S5
G16
S4S8S7SW8S9----------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Tue -- 04:56 AM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:42 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:22 PM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.71.11.21.31.210.70.40.20.10.10.30.71.11.41.41.41.310.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 03:17 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:17 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.510.50.30.40.91.62.53.23.53.432.41.710.50.30.40.81.52.22.52.52.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.