Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:16PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:05 AM EDT (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 10:48PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 710 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Saturday night...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 281056
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
656 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the northwest today and move
offshore Friday and move offshore late Saturday. High pressure
will build behind the front Sunday into the middle of next week.

Near term through today
As of 650 am Friday... Showers with a couple of embedded
thunderstorms occurring over the far northern CWA and have
adjusted pops to account for some continuing activity through
the morning. A cold front will slowly approach the region from
the northwest today as a mid-level shortwave rotates across
eastern nc later this evening into tonight. Weak low-level
shear and high instability will lead to a threat of some strong
to locally severe storms later in the afternoon into this
evening, particular over the northern tier of the CWA where the
instability will be maximized with forecast surface-based cape
values exceeding 3000 j kg and li's around -6 to -7. Latest
high-resolution models indicate the severe threat will be short-
lived with convection weakening over our northern CWA this
evening. SPC has lowered our area to the "marginal threat" of
severe today and tonight. High temperatures today will rise to
the mid to upper 80s over most locations with a few lower 90s in
the normally warmer inland counties.

Short term tonight
As of 250 am Friday... While instability wanes a bit
tonight... Strong mid-level shortwave and frontal forcing will
lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms tonight.

Some heavy downpours will be likely, but threat of severe
weather diminishes after midnight. Will continue previous
forecast of likely pops area-wide. With cloud-cover and
precipitation, expect uniform low temperatures in the mid 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 330 am Friday... An area of low pressure will slowly move
off the va coast with the trailing cold front pushing across
eastern nc through the day Saturday. The front will stall
offshore with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it
into early next week while high pressure builds in from the
northwest through the middle of next week.

Saturday through Tuesday... An upper low is progged to be
positioned over the mid-atlantic states with sfc low pressure
over va early Saturday. The low will slowly push off the va
coast with the trailing cold front pushing across the region
through the day Saturday. Moist SW flow with sufficient
instability and shear remains ahead of the front to bring a
threat of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across
the area, especially eastern sections where greater diurnal
heating will occur before fropa.

Confidence in the forecast remains low Sunday through Tuesday
as models are struggling to grasp the evolution of the strong
upper trough cut-off low as it moves across the mid-atlantic
states and off the coast. More progressive guidance opens the
low into a sharp trough that pushes across eastern nc Sunday and
quickly lifting the sfc low away from the area while less
progressive guidance keeps the upper low over eastern va nc
through Monday before lifting out Tuesday with several areas of
sfc low pressure lifting along the stalled front offshore
Sunday through Tuesday. The former solution brings a few
showers with strong N to NE winds along the coast Sunday but
otherwise has dry conditions and light winds through Tuesday.

The latter solution bring greater coverage of showers Sunday
with a few showers possibly lingering along the coast Monday
into Tuesday with moderate to strong NE flow across the region
persisting into Tuesday. High Saturday expected to be in the mid
80s. Latest guidance brings much below normal temps for Sunday
with highs in the upper 70s to around 80, then a gradual warming
back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows expected in the 60s
inland to lower 70s coast.

Wednesday and Thursday... High pressure will be the dominant
feature for Wednesday with dry conditions expected. A robust
shortwave digs across the midwest Thursday with increasing
southern stream flow across the southeast which may produce a
few showers across the area late Thursday, however there remains
some timing differences among the models. Temps expected to be
near normal in the upper 80s to around 90 inland to mid 80s
coast.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 12z Saturday ...

as of 655 am Friday... Widespread mid and high debris cloudiness
has kept most fog stratus at bay overnight, although koaj did
report a short period of MVFR fog and stratus. Conditions should
remain in theVFR range through today, even with scattered
showers tstms during the late afternoon hours causing briefly
lower ceilings and vsbys, especially at kpgv. Deeper moisture
associated with cold front will lead to periods of ifr ceilings
after 06z tonight which is also depicted in the latest numerical
guidance.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 330 am Friday... A cold front will cross rtes Saturday with
periods of sub-vfr conditions expected in showers thunderstorms.

PredVFR conditions expected Saturday night through Tuesday but
cannot rule out a few showers across rtes, especially coastal
sections, which may bring brief periods of sub-vfr conditions.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 7 am Friday... Tight gradient between offshore high
pressure and approaching front will lead to continued S sw
winds at 15-20 knots over the waters today and tonight. Per
latest wave models, area of enhanced waves moves up the coast by
tonight and current timing to small craft advisories, beginning
near or just after 00z tonight looks good with no changes
required. Seas will build to as high as 6-7 feet later tonight
with 15-25 knot winds.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 330 am Friday... Poor boating conditions expected this
weekend as an area of low pressure moves off the va coast and
trailing cold front pushes through the waters Saturday. Strong
sw winds around 15-25 kt with higher gusts continues Saturday
ahead of the cold front, then becomes NW around 15-20 kt behind
the front and shifts to N 15-25 kt by Sunday. Seas around 5-8
ft south of oregon inlet and 3-5 ft north Saturday subside a bit
Saturday night but build back to 5-9 ft north of ocracoke inlet
and 3-6 ft south by Sunday. Confidence remains low with how
quickly conditions improve Monday into Tuesday as there is a
large spread among the models with the placement of the front
offshore. Stronger guidance keeps the front stalled closer the
the coast with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it
keeping NE winds around 15-25 kt and seas up to 4-7 ft across
the waters into Tuesday while weaker guidance pushes the front
well offshore with conditions dropping below SCA Monday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Sunday
for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt Sunday
for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Ctc sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi47 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 81°F 80°F1012 hPa
41064 30 mi57 min W 12 G 14 81°F 83°F1012.9 hPa
41159 30 mi52 min 83°F3 ft
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi65 min W 11 G 13 80°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.0)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi47 min SW 7 G 8.9 79°F 82°F1011.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi57 min SW 7.8 G 12 80°F 82°F1012.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi66 min 82°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi57 min SSW 9.7 G 16 79°F 82°F1012.9 hPa
WLON7 46 mi47 min 78°F 85°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi68 minWSW 910.00 miFair78°F75°F93%1013 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi69 minWSW 610.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6S7S7S7S8S10SW11SW9S10S6S8S8S8S8S9SW7SW8SW7SW7SW6W54W9
1 day agoNE10--NE9E8E8E11NE8NE9E10E11E8NE9E5NE45N3CalmCalmN3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW7NW5W5S9SW10SW10SW8SW9SW8S8S4CalmSE4NE9NE7E8E10E8E11NE8NE6NE5NE7NE8

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:26 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:32 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.12.51.60.80.2-0.10.10.51.32.12.7332.621.20.60.30.30.61.21.92.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:23 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.31.81.20.60.1-0.100.411.622.32.221.50.90.50.30.30.50.91.51.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.