Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:24 PM EST (02:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:56AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 709 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less late.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230047
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
747 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will sag south into northern portions of eastern
north carolina late tonight and early Friday then lift back
north Friday afternoon. High pressure will continue offshore
over the weekend with continued very warm temperatures. A cold
front will move through the area Sunday night into early Monday,
followed by high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 700 pm Thursday... Minor changes with update for hourly
temp dew point trends and did lower visibilities to 1 mile along
coast late tonight. Latest guidance continues to indicate
backdoor front pushing down overnight but precip threat
remaining north of area.

Previous discussion
as of 215 pm Thursday... Sct CU inland will diminish toward
evening with loss of heating. Mostly clr skies thru the evening
will give way to increasing clouds late in combo of developing
stratus and clouds behind a backdoor cold front that will sag s
thru NRN tier. Deeper moisture looks to remain N of region so
will cont with no pops in fcst. With low lvls remaining
saturated good bet for fog to form again tonight... Always tricky
to determine how widespread the fog will be... There is the
potential for some dense fog. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler than the past 2 nights mainly cpl dgrs either side of 55.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
As of 215 pm Thursday... The backdoor front is fcst to bisect
the region early with it weakening and lifting back N later in
the day. Clouds fog in morn shld grad diminish into the aftn.

Temps over SRN tier will be similar to today around 80... Bit
cooler NRN tier with front in area with highs in the 60s nrn
cst.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 315 am Thursday... Strong high pressure at the surface and
aloft offshore will continue to provide a warm southwest flow
into the region into the weekend. An approaching cold front
coupled with deep moisture will lead to an increased rain threat
Sunday into Monday before another cold front brings a return to
dry weather Tuesday.

Friday night and Saturday... Near-record high temperatures
expected given southwest flow and unusually high 500 mb heights
over the region. High temperatures will be well into the 70s
with a few spots reaching the lower 80s Saturday. GFS ecmwf
show the development of a few showers Saturday given an increase
in precipitable water ahead of next front.

Sunday through Monday night... Deeper moisture will be drawn
north into the eastern carolinas ahead of cold front as ridge to
the east weakens and moves east. Continued high chance pops
Sunday night and especially Monday when deepest moisture and
best lift is in place. Continued very warm Sunday in warm sector
ahead of front with highs well into the 70s, but as front moves
offshore later Sunday night, highs on Monday will range mostly
in the upper 50s to lower 60s with more widespread precipitation
expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Dry high pressure will build across the
region with cooler temperatures, but still above normal under
mostly clear skies. Highs will generally be in the 60s with lows
in the 40s, still about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

Wednesday night and Thursday... An increase in deep moisture
ahead of low pressure crossing the mississippi and ohio valleys
will lead to another round of showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have high chance pops in the forecast. Temperatures
will remain mild, despite the precipitation however.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through Fri ...

as of 645 pm Thursday... MainlyVFR thru this evening with mostly
clear skies prevailing. Weak backdoor front will push in from
n-ne overnight but generally expected to stall near kpgv-kewn
line near morning and then lift back north on Friday. Low
stratus and fog will develop ahead of and behind front at taf
sites late tonight with ifr expected most sites poss dropping
to lifr at times. Appears SRN tier will quickly see fog st
dissipate withVFR by mid late morn. NRN tier may hold onto
lower clouds and vsbys til late morn or early aftn withVFR all
areas later in aftn.

Long term Friday night through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail Friday night and
Saturday as high pressure continues to circulate warm air into
the region on S SW winds. Some periods of sub-vfr conditions,
likely MVFR, are expected Sunday into Monday as an approaching
frontal system will bring more numerous showers, especially
behind the cold front on Monday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 700 pm Thursday... No changes to winds seas with update but
did adjust vsbys with areas of fog to 1 mile late tonight into
early Friday morning. Dense fog advisory for most of waters may
be needed with later issuances.

Previous discussion
as of 215 pm Thursday... Ssw winds 5 to 15 kts thru the evening
with 3 to 4 foot seas in long period swell. Late tonight a weak
cold front will cross NRN tier with winds become N to NE mainly
from about hatteras N with light wsw winds S of the front. Once
again will likely see fog develop and will have to monitor
trends overnight for poss dense fog advisory. The front will
grad weaken and lift N Fri with winds becoming ssw below 15 kts
all waters later in the day with fog diminishing. Cont longer
period swells will keep seas mainly in the 3 to 4 foot range
fri.

Long term Friday night through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday... Not alot of change in the latest marine
forecast. S SW winds will cont Friday night and Saturday.

Expect 10-15 knot winds for this period with seas of 2-4 feet.

Small craft advisory conditions still look like a given on
Sunday ahead of the cold front with gusty SW winds of 20-25
knots and seas building to as high as 6-7 feet, south of oregon
inlet. Winds subside again Monday behind the front as winds
become northerly.

Climate
Temps could approach and or break records today.

Record high temps 2 22 (Thursday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 76 1971 (khse)
greenville 80 2003 (coop)
jacksonville 77 2003 (knca)
kinston 78 2003 (coop)
morehead city 72 1971 (coop)
new bern 80 1980 (kewn)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf jbm
short term... Rf
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc jbm
marine... Rf ctc jbm
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi54 min S 5.1 G 7 62°F 62°F1031.2 hPa
41064 30 mi76 min S 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 71°F1031.2 hPa
41159 30 mi54 min 71°F4 ft
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi84 min S 5.1 G 5.1 1031.3 hPa (+0.7)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi54 min SSW 6 G 7 62°F 56°F1031.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi76 min S 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 61°F1030.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi55 min 60°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi76 min S 5.8 G 9.7 69°F 69°F1031.2 hPa
WLON7 46 mi54 min 65°F 61°F1030.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC14 mi88 minSSW 77.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3Calm--CalmCalmS6SW9SW9SW9
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SW10SW10SW10SW9S7S8S8S10SW9SW8SW6SW5CalmCalmSW4
1 day agoS7S7S6S3SW3S6S8S7S7S10S9S9S9S9S8S7S9S9S6S7S5W3SW4Calm
2 days agoNE8E8NE6NE7E4N4NE6E5SE4SE5S8S9S8S7S7S9S9W4S4SW4S7S8S8S5

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:05 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:00 PM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.72.21.50.80.200.20.61.21.82.32.42.31.91.30.60.1-0.1-00.41.11.82.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:03 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:57 AM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:07 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.221.61.10.60.200.10.50.91.41.71.81.71.40.90.40-0.1-00.30.81.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.