Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:47 AM EDT (12:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 703 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Today..E winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 4 seconds, increasing to 9 seconds this afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt, becoming s. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221101
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
701 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure at the surface and aloft will build across the
southeast states through early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 7 am wed... No changes to zones needed. Ridging surface
and aloft will build over the region with a dry airmass and
mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the low 80s for most
interior areas, with 70-75 for the obx zones.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 230 am wed... Some high clouds associated with a warm
front to the west may affect western zones after midnight, but
otherwise mostly clear skies forecast. Lows will be in the lower
60s, except for a few upper 50s along the northern inland
counties near the albemarle sound.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 310 am wed... A highly amplified upper pattern is expected
across the CONUS through early next week featuring a strong
upper ridge over the southeast states. This pattern favors well
above average temperatures, possibly reaching record levels and
below normal precipitation. Complicating the temperature
forecast is a wavy frontal boundary forecast over the mid
atlantic region which will likely oscillate south into portions
of eastern nc Friday into Sat producing slightly cooler
temperatures Sat especially along the coast due to onshore flow.

Inland locations should remain with above normal warmth. Still
looks like a predominately dry forecast through the period.

Differential heating local sea breeze circulations and low
amplitude shortwaves could trigger isolated to widely scattered
convective activity at times but current model runs indicate no
significant organized precipitation events over the next 7 days.

Thursday through Tuesday... A strong upper level ridge will move
out of the gulf of mexico and park itself over the deep south
Thursday into early next week. Surface high pressure will again
set up over the western atlantic, producing a deep SW flow
across the region. All signs continue to show that this
combination could bring close to record heat to the southeast
us. However, the latest model runs continue to show the ridge a
bit further west, placing eastern nc on the peripheral of the
heat, and vulnerable to weak boundaries drifting across the
region from the north and west resulting in cooler coastal temps
if onshore flow develops. Inland, the potential for very hot
conditions still exists and will forecast inland highs in the
90s through the period and mid to upper 80s closer to the coast.

Continued to trend towards previous forecast, wpc and the ecmwf
which keeps the ridge in place. Right now the hottest days look
like Friday, and Sunday and Monday. ECMWF shows 850mb temps
20c+ over most of eastern nc Sunday through the middle of next
week. Record high temps will be possible. Please see climate
section below for details.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term 12z Thu ...

as of 7 am wed...VFR conditions are forecast through the short
term with light east to northeast winds.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 310 am wed... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period, though cannot rule out patchy shallow fog and or stratus
early each morning at the terminals.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am wed... No changes needed. Surface ridge centered to
the northeast of the area will make for east to northeast
surface flow through the short term, 10-15 knots today and 5-10
knots tonight. Seas on the coastal waters will average 2-4 feet.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 310 am wed... High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the period. S SW winds 5-15 kt Thu increase to 15 to 20
kt and gusty Thu night with a brief period of SCA conditions
possible . Guidance continues to show a front pushing through
the waters Friday with W winds 15-20 kt early diminishing and
becoming N NE around 10 kt over the northern and central waters
in the afternoon, and NE 10 kt all waters Fri night. E NE flow
around 10 kt will become SE Sat afternoon. S SW winds 10-15 kt
are forecast for Sunday. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft through the
period. Seas may build up to 5 ft across the outer waters thu
night into early Fri in period of moderate SW W flow.

Climate
Record or near record warmth is expected late this week into
early next week.

Record high temps for 5 24 (Friday)
location temp year
new bern 96 2011 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 87 1992 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1925 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 87 1992 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 94 1994 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 95 2011 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 26 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 100 1953 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 88 1962 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1927 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1953 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 2004 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 27 (Monday)
location temp year
new bern 96 1989 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 86 2004 (khse asos)
greenville 96 1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1989 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Jme
aviation... Hsa jme
marine... Hsa jme
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 30 mi40 min E 14 G 19 72°F 76°F1020.6 hPa
41159 30 mi48 min 75°F4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi48 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 70°F 77°F1022.5 hPa (+1.9)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi48 min NE 16 G 19 70°F 1021.9 hPa (+1.8)53°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi48 min NE 19 G 21 71°F 75°F1021.6 hPa (+2.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi40 min ENE 16 G 21 71°F 74°F1021.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi48 min 74°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi40 min ENE 18 G 23 72°F 76°F1020.9 hPa
WLON7 46 mi48 min 71°F 78°F1021.5 hPa (+2.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi51 minNE 610.00 miFair71°F55°F59%1022.4 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi52 minENE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F54°F61%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW7NE3SW8S8S9S9S7E16E13E13SE12E10E10NE13NE11NE9NE6NE6NE6NE9NE6N5NE6
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:03 AM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:21 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.41.60.90.30.10.20.71.42.12.62.82.62.21.50.80.30.20.40.91.62.32.93.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:02 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:00 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:55 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:18 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.20.60.20.10.20.61.11.61.92.121.61.10.60.30.20.30.71.21.82.22.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.