Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:02PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:12 PM EDT (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1254 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.tropical storm warning in effect...
This afternoon..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas around 15 ft, except around 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers.
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 15 ft, except around 9 ft near shore. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions expected. N winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 16 ft, except around 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 13 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, increasing to extremely rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions expected. N winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming 30 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 14 ft, except 6 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 13 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, increasing to extremely rough after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible. NW winds 30 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 12 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers extremely rough, diminishing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 251442
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1042 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.

Hurricane maria is expected to track slowly off the north
carolina coast through mid week. A cold front will cross the
area late in the week. Please see the latest official forecasts
from the national hurricane center and local NWS offices.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1045 am Monday... No significant changes with update.

Previous discussion
as of 345 am Monday... Maria will advance nnw to be well
offshore of the carolinas by late today. Clouds should thicken
and lower, especially coast where windy conditions will develop.

Will continue a 20-30% chance for afternoon showers east
(highest coast) but rainfall amounts will be light. Highs will
be in the lower 80s inland and upper 70s beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 345 am Monday... Maria will continue to advance slowly n
offshore tonight. Main impacts will be increasing winds and
threat of showers isolated tstms with pops from 20% inland to
50% coast overnight. Min temps upper 60s inland to mid 70s
coast.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 530 am Monday... The primary forecast concern through most
of the long term will be impacts associated with hurricane
maria. Maria will slowly lift to off the nc coast Tuesday
through late Wednesday before an approaching upper level trough
and attendant cold front finally push maria to the east sometime
Thursday. Models are coming into better agreement keeping the
center of maria about 100-150 miles offshore but a large
tropical storm wind field that currently extends 230 miles from
the center and large seas will still bring moderate to high
impacts across portions of eastern nc, especially the outer
banks.

The slow moving nature of this system will prolong and possibly
enhance the impacts that eastern nc does receive. At this time,
the greatest impacts are expected to be associated with the
large surf impacting the coast and significant beach erosion is
likely with ocean overwash probable in typically prone areas
around times of high tide beginning Tuesday and peaking
Wednesday into Thursday. Highway 12 along the outer banks could
be greatly impacted and may become impassable at times,
especially along pea island. Coastal flooding along the southern
pamlico sound is also possible but the degree of flooding
remains dependent upon how close maria gets before recurving out
to sea. The key driver for amount of inundation from storm
surge will be the duration of the northerly winds across the
region. The soundside of the outer banks from buxton to
ocracoke, and possibly downeast carteret county, look to be the
most vulnerable locations for sound side flooding at this time.

In addition, tropical storm force wind speed probabilities
continue to increase, with latest values between 60-70 percent,
meaning tropical storm force winds will be possible, especially
across the eastern third of the region with strongest winds
expected across the outer banks. At this time, rainfall amounts
look to be around 1-3 inches across the eastern half of the cwa
to less than an inch across the coastal plain. We are not
expecting significant impacts from rainfall flooding at this
time but it could be compounded across the outer banks by the
impacts associated with storm surge.

Maria is expected to quickly move away from the area Friday
with an upper level trough approaching from the west. Models not
in good agreement with the strength of the upper trough and
available moisture as it moves into the area but could see a few
showers over the weekend.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Short term through 12z Tuesday ...

as of 1045 am Monday... Scu expected to persist through rest of
taf period with CIGS lifting with heating today but remaining
mainly MVFR. CIGS lowering again tonight and most guidance is
indicating ifr by late evening, but most guidance was overdone
past 6 hours, thus keeping CIGS at 1k feet at this time.

Scattered showers isolated tstms expected to spread inland from
coast tonight with vcsh mentioned at kewn and koaj. N to ne
winds will gust 15-20 kt this afternoon and may persist tonight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 530 am Monday... Hurricane maria will slowly approach the
region Tuesday and stall off the coast Wednesday into Thursday.

Shower chances are greatest along the coast but could see
periods of sub-vfr conditions in showers at the terminals.

Northerly wind gusts around 20-30 kt possible, especially
Tuesday into Wednesday. Aviation conditions improve late
Thursday into Friday as hurricane maria finally moves away from
the coast.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1045 am Monday... No changes with update.

Previous discussion
as of 345 am Monday... Building seas and increasing winds will
remain the story for the nc waters as maria approaches late
today producing dangerous conditions. N NE winds 15 to 25 kt
early will increase to 20 to 30 kt with higher gusts today, and
then to 25 to 35 knots by early Tuesday. As usual the wave
models have been too quick to increase seas with hurricane
swell. Current 6 to 11 ft seas are forecast to build to 10 to 16
ft late today and 12 to 20 feet overnight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 530 am Monday... Hurricane maria will slowly lift north
off the coast Tuesday through Wednesday night before
accelerating eastward Thursday and Friday. Models are coming
into better agreement keeping the center of maria about 100-150
miles offshore but a large tropical storm wind field and large
seas will create very rough conditions across the waters and
boating during this period is not recommended. With the latest
nhc forecast, tropical storm winds are expected to impact
portions of the central coastal waters beginning Tuesday and
continuing into Thursday with strong SCA conditions elsewhere.

Seas are expected to reach as high 15-25 ft Tuesday into
Thursday. Marine conditions begin to improve late Thursday into
Friday as hurricane maria finally moves east away from the nc
coast, though scas are likely to continue through Friday for
hazardous seas in the wake of maria.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Tropical storm watch for ncz098.

Tropical storm warning for ncz046-047-081-095-103-104.

Marine... Tropical storm watch for amz136-137.

Tropical storm warning for amz130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Hsa jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Sk
aviation... Hsa jbm sk
marine... Hsa jbm sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 30 mi125 min NE 21 G 27 78°F 1011.3 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi43 min NNE 15 G 23 79°F 75°F1011.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi73 min NNE 25 G 29 77°F 1011.5 hPa (+0.0)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi43 min NNE 14 G 17 78°F 81°F1011.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi44 min 78°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi65 min NNE 12 G 21 77°F 78°F1012.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi65 min NE 19 G 29 78°F 80°F1010.9 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 45 mi88 min NNE 1.9 83°F 1013 hPa73°F
WLON7 46 mi43 min 81°F 79°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi16 minNNE 16 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F72°F74%1012.6 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi17 minNNE 1410.00 miOvercast81°F72°F74%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE14
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NE8NE8NE8NE6NE5NE5N6NE7NE6NE6NE6N8N7N7N6N9N8N9
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1 day agoN6Calm--NE7NE6E4SE4E7NE4NE5NE4NE5NE4N4N3N6N5N5N5N6N8NE10NE12
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G25
2 days agoS6S7S9S8SW7SW6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW4CalmCalmNW5N5N7N7N9

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:17 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.521.40.80.50.50.81.42.12.83.23.43.22.721.40.90.60.711.52.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:48 AM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.91.51.10.70.50.50.71.21.72.12.42.52.421.61.10.80.60.70.91.21.61.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.