Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 27, 2017 5:50 AM EDT (09:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:54AMMoonset 9:20PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 324 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 270854
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
454 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
A frontal system will move into the area tonight and become
stationary through Sunday, then lift northeast Sunday night.

A cold front will drift in Monday night and become stationary
along the coast through the end of the week.

Near term through today
As of 3 am sat... The bulk of Saturday will be mostly sunny
and dry until mid-level ridge starts to break down late in the
day. Some decent mid-level shortwave energy and an approaching
boundary from the north will kick off scattered showers and
thunderstorms to our north, near the va border, but think these
will stay north of our CWA through 00z Sunday. Saturday will be
quite warm in SW flow with thickness and MOS guidance supporting
highs in the lower 90s inland and low mid 80s beaches.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am sat... A surface low with its associated cold front
will move ese through va, exiting the coast around 06z. The
trailing cold front will move into the central part of the
forecast area after midnight. At the same time strong shortwave
energy will cross E nc. Models continue to show scattered
coverage for the area with the best chance in the northeast.

New SPC day 1 outlook has slight risk in the northwest counties
with marginal risk elsewhere, with the main threats being
damaging winds and hail. Will mention this in the hazardous
weather outlook.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 330 am Saturday... Latest guidance has led to slightly
increased confidence in precip timing for Sunday-Monday but
continued low confidence rest of period due to timing of short
waves and frontal boundaries across area.

Sunday-Sunday night... Weak frontal boudary will be stalled w-e
across area but short-wave energy relatively weak, thus
expecting scattered convective development mainly in afternoon
and evening. Some potential for activity to continue overnight
with frontal boundary remaining stalled across area, thus will
continue chance pops overnight. Inreasing deep layer shear
during afternoon could lead to a few strong to marginally severe
storms. Weak NE flow for northern obx will keep highs 75-80
there while SW sections will remain in warm sector with highs
near 90.

Monday-Monday night... Models generally agree on more widespread
convective threat with stronger short wave trough and surface
cold front moving toward area during peak afternoon heating. Gfs
and NAM indicating lis to -10 and capes to near 5000 with deep
layer shear increasing to 40-50 kt, thus increasing concern for
strong to severe storms and SPC day 3 outook of slight risk of
severe for entire area. Keeping pops in 40-50% range for now.

Guidance indicates low level thicknesses building to near 1430
meters, supportive of MAX temps 90-94 inland of coast. Lows
Monday night remaining muggy 70-74.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... Frontal boundary expected to stall and
wash out across area with addtional short wave energy resulting
in another bout of mainly diurnal showers tstms. More cloud
cover and lower thicknesses will keep MAX temps mainly in the
80s. Lows Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast.

Wednesday-Friday... Low confidence for this forecast period due
to poor model continuity. 00z runs have trended wetter for
Wednesday with front still stalled across area while drier for
Thursday with front off coast. Only forecast adjustment was to
add slight chance pops all zones for Wednesday but left lower
chance pops in place for Thursday. Higher chance pops for Friday
with front lifting back north. MAX temps still in 80s for
Wednesday then around 80 for end of week. Lows from mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight
as of 3 am sat...VFR through today. Sub-vfr CIGS vsbys possible
tonight in scattered showers and thunderstorms as a front
drifts south into the area. Surface winds will be from the
southwest, 10-15 knots today and less than 10 knots tonight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
as of 330 am Saturday... Some lingering sub-vfr conditions
possible Sunday morning in wake of overnight showers tstms with
mainlyVFR Sunday afternoon and evening. Better chance of
periods of sub-vfr with convective activity Monday afternoon and
evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Less coverage
for Wednesday but sub-vfr could linger with front stalled over
area.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 3 am sat... A weak ridge of high pressure to the south will
weaken today. A front will drop in from the north late tonight and
become stationary west-east through the central waters through
Sunday. Flow will be southwest, except becoming west after
midnight across the waters north of oregon inlet and on the
albemarle sound behind the front. Winds will average 5-15
knots, except on the pamlico sound and on the coastal waters
south of CAPE hatteras where speeds will increase tonight to
15-20 knots ahead of the front. Seas will average 2-4 feet, with
seas building to 3-5 feet from CAPE hatteras to CAPE lookout
tonight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
as of 330 am Saturday... Zonal flow aloft will lead to several
weak front intrusions into area Sunday, Monday night and again
Tuesday night. Southern half of waters will mainly see SW winds
15 kt or less during period but northern waters will see some
periods of shiting winds but with speeds less than 15 kt.

Southern waters will see some periods of seas building to 4 feet
for outer portions with SW winds around 15 kt, otherwise seas
mainly 2-3 feet during period.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Jbm
aviation... Hsa jbm
marine... Hsa jbm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi51 min W 2.9 G 8 71°F 71°F1013.5 hPa (-0.5)
41064 30 mi43 min W 12 G 16 75°F 78°F1014.8 hPa
41159 30 mi38 min 78°F4 ft
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi51 min W 7 G 8.9 72°F 1014.1 hPa (-0.4)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi51 min WSW 6 G 8 69°F 74°F1013.9 hPa (+0.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi52 min 74°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi43 min WSW 9.7 G 14 73°F 74°F1014.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi43 min WSW 12 G 16 74°F 76°F1014.3 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 45 mi66 min W 1 67°F 1015 hPa61°F
WLON7 46 mi51 min 66°F 76°F1014.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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W5
G14
W4
G12
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G14
W6
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G17
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SW7
G12
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G15
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G14
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G14
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G20
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G17
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G15
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G20
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G22
SW11
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G19
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G14
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W7
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W4
G7
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G13
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G15
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G16
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G18
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G24
S17
G22
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G25
S16
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G23
S24
G29
S20
G26
SW11
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1015 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi55 minWSW 410.00 miFair62°F61°F96%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW56W7W9NW9
G18
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--W7
G18
W11SW13S15
G20
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4SW7SW8SW6W4W3W3CalmW3W3Calm
1 day agoSW12W8SW12SW16
G25
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G32
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W9W8
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2 days ago------W5----------S9--S12S11SW13
G26
SW11S15
G22
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G21
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G22
S14
G21
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G31
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G26
SW13
G22

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:27 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:56 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.10.1-0.4-0.4-00.81.82.6332.51.70.8-0.1-0.5-0.50.112.23.34.14.34

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:33 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:53 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.7-0-0.4-0.5-0.10.61.31.92.32.21.81.20.4-0.2-0.5-0.5-00.71.62.533.23

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.