Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday June 21, 2018 2:57 AM EDT (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 12:55AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1005 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210203
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1003 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak boundary across the area will lift to the north tonight.

Another front will push into the area late Thursday and Thursday
night, then lift back north across the area Friday night and early
Saturday. Another front will impact the region Monday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 10 pm Wednesday... Area of convection over the northern
counties will continue to slowly weaken as it moves off the
coast. Only scattered to widely scattered convection possible
the rest of the night. Current pops look good, as do temps.

Prev disc... Upper ridging will continue to be gradually be
suppressed overnight as a northern stream trough digs into the
great lakes and shortwave energy approaches from the west. A
weak frontal boundary surface trough will lift north of the area
and dissipate with low level winds becoming SW across the
region. It will be another mild night with lows in the
mid upper 70s.

Short term Thursday through 6 am Thursday
As of 330 pm Wednesday... Shortwave energy moves offshore early
in the day with shortwave ridging ahead of an upper low moving
into the central plains. A backdoor front will approach from the
north through the day but models have slowed down the timing,
not moving into northern sections until around 00z Friday. It
remains very moist and unstable with pw values above 2" and cape
forecast to exceed 3000 j kg and expect scattered thunderstorms
to develop during the afternoon with main forcing being the sea
breeze followed by outflow boundary convergence. Low level
thicknesses are down a few meters from today and expect highs
near or a degree or two less tomorrow. Dewpoints expected to be
similar to day, around 72-77 degrees, yielding heat index
values around 98-103, which is just below heat advisory criteria
and will refrain from issuing an advisory for tomorrow at this
time.

Long term Thursday through Wednesday
As of 350 am Wednesday... A slightly stronger frontal push into
the area is expected late Thursday into Friday. Ridging then
returns Friday night through weekend with a stronger upper
trough and surface front expected to move through eastern nc
Monday. Result will be somewhat of a roller coaster effect on
temps and generally at least a scattered threat of showers and
tstms each day.

Thursday night through Monday... Front will push south into the
area Thu night and will be a focus for convective development,
with some potential for heavy downpours and a few strong to
severe storms. Will cap pops at 50% Thu night due to uncertainty
in location and timing of best rain threat. High pressure
moving across to north will keep front stalled to south where it
will dissipate Friday but models continue to indicate scattered
convective threat across our area.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of
inland thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend, and will keep
typical 20% coast 30% inland pops both days. Stronger upper
trough and associated cold front moves in from NW Monday and
will have 40-50% chance pops all zones Sun night through mon
night for now.

Hot and humid conditions will continue Thursday with highs
mainly low to mid 90s and heat indices around 105 inland. Some
relief behind the front for Friday with highs in mid to upper
80s. Heat returns for weekend with around 90 for Saturday and
low-mid 90s Sunday, then slightly cooler due to
clouds precipitation for Monday.

Tue and wed... The front is forecast to push south of the region
as high pressure builds over the area from the north. As is
typical for this time of year, there will be enough residual
moisture and instability behind the front to warrant low chance
pops both days for a few mainly diurnally driven showers or
storms. Temps will be closer to normal values in the low to mid
80s.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday afternoon ...

as of 10 pm wed...VFR conditions are expected for most of the
taf period. Skies will then become partly cloudy overnight, and
winds will be light, which will allow for good radiational
cooling conditions. Some patchy MVFR fog is possible to develop
across inland portions of eastern nc, especially in locations
that receive rain today. Any fog should dissipate quickly after
sunrise, andVFR conditions will return for the day Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday ...

as of 350 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible each day in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Some sub-vfr CIGS will be possible with the ne-e
flow behind the cold front Friday into Friday night.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 10 pm Wednesday... No changes to zones. A weak boundary
across the area will lift north and dissipate overnight with
winds becoming predominately SW around 10-15 kt. Winds are
expected to increase to 10-20 kt Thursday as gradients tighten
ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from the north. Winds
will be strongest south of oregon inlet including the pamlico
sound. Seas expected to be around 1-2 ft northern waters and 2-4
ft south tonight, then build to 2-4 ft Thursday all waters with
up to 5 ft possible across the central waters by late in the
afternoon.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 350 am Tuesday... Moderate southerly flow 15-20 kt with
3-4 ft seas are expected Thu as the gradient increaes ahead of
an approaching cold front which is forecast to move south of the
waters late Thu night. The flow behind the front Thu night into
fri night will become ne-e 10-15 kt with 2 to 4 ft seas. Sat
return southerly flow develops then strengthens to 15 to 20 kt
in the afternoon with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. The moderate
15-20 kt SW flow continues Sat night and Sunday with gusts to 25
kt and 3 to 5 ft seas possibly building to 6 ft over portions
of the outer waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Hsa sk
short term... Sk
long term... Jme
aviation... Hsa sgk jme
marine... Hsa sk jme
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi46 min S 7 G 8.9 78°F 84°F1010.1 hPa
41064 30 mi50 min SW 9.7 G 14 82°F 82°F1010 hPa
41159 30 mi28 min 82°F4 ft
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi58 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 1010.6 hPa (-0.3)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi40 min WSW 5.1 G 7 77°F 80°F1010.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi50 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 79°F1009.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi28 min 79°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi50 min WSW 16 G 23 82°F 82°F1010.3 hPa
WLON7 46 mi40 min 83°F1009.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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NW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miThunderstorm72°F0°F%1011.1 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1010 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmSE4SE8SE8SE7S9SW8SW4SW10SW5W5SW6S5W4W33CalmS4
1 day agoW5W6W6W6W7W7W5NW74NW5NW7SW8SW9SW10SW12SW11SW10SW10
G16
SW11W6W8SW8W64
2 days agoW11
G16
SW8W9W8CalmSW5SW3SW5SW8SW9SW11SW13W8W11SW11SW8SW11SW11SW7W7W7W8W5W6

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.52.932.72.11.40.60.1-0.100.51.32.12.733.12.72.11.40.70.40.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:38 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:03 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:29 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.92.22.221.610.40-0.100.411.622.32.321.610.60.30.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.