Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 2:57 PM   Moonset 3:32 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 342 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.Sun night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. Showers.Mon - NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Tue - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 342 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Stalled frontal boundary west of area waters will gradually lift back northward through today, bringing winds from easterly to southerly through Sat morning. Another cold front will cross area waters on Saturday, with a low pressure system and its associated fronts then impacting the carolinas on Saturday night into early next week before high pressure ridge builds in from the west on Tuesday.

FXUS62 KMHX 190553 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 153 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Backdoor cold front tracks across the area tonight eventually stalling and dissipating just to the south this evening. More unsettled weather is possible for the weekend into early next week as a cold front tracks across the region Friday night with a low pressure system and its associated fronts then impacting the Carolinas on Saturday night into early next week before high pressure ridge builds in from the west on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 830 PM Thu...Updated to add patchy fg to the grids, mainly the nern zones and surrounding waters, where vsby could drop to 1 to 3 nm.

Prev disc
As of 7 PM Thu
No big changes with eve update.

Prev disc
As of 320 PM Thu
Overall the flavor of the forecast hasn't changed much over the last several hours.
Backdoor cold front denoted by a wind shift with westerly winds out ahead of the front and north to northeasterly winds behind the front will continue to track southwestwards this afternoon and evening. Out ahead and along the front some diurnal cumulus has developed but should dissipate after sunset wit the loss of heating. Of bigger consequence is the marine stratus which is currently well offshore but has begin to track southwestwards towards eastern North Carolina this afternoon, though it shouldn't get to the area until; after sunset regardless given the latest information.

Aforementioned front will continue to push through ENC this evening eventually stalling and dissipating tonight just to the south in South Carolina. Behind the front low level stratus will quickly invade the area from northeast to southwest tonight as moist onshore flow becomes trapped beneath a frontal inversion.
This is forecast to allow for low cloud cover to overspread the NOBX early tonight and then spread southwestwards towards the Crystal Coast late this evening. Did continue to trend of knocking down temps another degree or two tonight with much of the aera getting into the mid to upper 50s, though where the front has moved through already across the NOBX temps are now forecast to get into the upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 320 PM Thu... Upper ridging briefly overspreads the Eastern Seaboard Friday morning before pushing off the coast Fri afternoon out ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave.
Associated cold front will be tracking E'wards across western and central NC through the day on Friday with the front pushing into the Coastal Plain by Friday evening. This front is forecast to bring widely scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Still thinking there will only be general thunder as this activity finally gets into the western Coastal Plain late Friday afternoon at a point where instability will be waning and shear will just begin increasing so thinking there is a low threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Highs get into the low to mid 80s across the Coastal Plain and into the 60s along the OBX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 320 PM Thursday...An active pattern continues into early next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Friday night...No real changes for the forecast for Fri night. Cold front will push through the region Fri night continuing to bring a threat for shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. Still not expecting anything more than general thunder for Fri night though trends will have to be monitored as there is a non-zero threat for a stronger storm to develop as the front moves through. Lows get into the mid 50s to low 60s across the area.

Saturday through midweek...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night. The sea breeze is expected to become dominant pushing inland Saturday afternoon allowing more heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections of ENC which, combined with around 40 kt of shear, could allow for a risk of thunderstorm development, which some could become strong to marginally severe.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night with widespread rain developing across the region. Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the chance for a few showers.

Highs Saturday will be around 75-80 north of highway 70 and low 80s to the south but mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast.
A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps will warm to near normal for mid week with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 155 AM Fri...Backdoor cold front has now stalled, draped roughly from just west of OAJ/NCA northwestward towards RDU and into central VA. Low stratus is gradually beginning to seep in behind the front as advertised with LIFR conditions over NOBX and IFR extending as far west as MCZ/OCW. Forecast calls for this low stratus deck to gradually overspread all terminals through this morning, reaching OAJ last at around 08z. Flow gradually begins to veer southeasterly as the front begins to lift back north, and stratus deck will scatter out by mid- morning returning VFR conditions.

Dry weather persists until tonight when cluster of showers and thunderstorms, initiated to our west, begin to intrude into the coastal plain ahead of another cold front currently over the lower MS valley. Deteriorating flight conditions are likely after 04z Sat from northwest to southeast.

LONG TERM /Friday evening through Tuesday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers or storms late in the day as mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes. Improving conditions are expected on Monday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 320 PM Thu...Backdoor cold front currently noted from Hatteras Island NW'ward into the western Albemarle Sound and will continue to gradually cross area waters from northeast to south ushering in another surge of 10-20 kt northeasterly flow tonight with a few gusts to 20+ kt likely. This front will eventually stall and dissipate to our south allowing winds to ease slightly down to 10-15 kts on Fri while becoming E-NE. Seas will remain around 3-5 ft along our coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...An active pattern will prevail in the long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. Variable winds around 10 kt or less Friday night becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on Saturday as another cold front drops into the area and stalls offshore. Low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night into Monday with NE winds around 15-25 kt. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters through Saturday but will build to 3 to 6 ft Sunday and peak Monday around 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and 6-10 ft across the central waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Lookout
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Fri -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:00 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:02 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:21 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
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