Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Point, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:24PM Monday March 25, 2019 2:10 AM EDT (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 944 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Monday night through Wednesday morning...
Overnight..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Tue..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Point, NC
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location: 34.67, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 250556
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
156 am edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will influence the weather
into Monday. A storm system will impact the region late Monday
into Tuesday. High pressure building down the east coast will
then dominate later Tuesday into the second half of the week.

The next front will approach next weekend..

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1 am mon... Previous forecast remains mainly on track with
satellite imagery indicating that the thicker cirrus coverage
is shifting over the eastern half of the cwa, with clearing
working in from the west. While this will improve radiational
cooling efficiency, persistent light southerly winds will keep
locations from cooling too quickly, and the forecast lows are
still reasonable.

Previous discussion... Atlantic high pressure will produce a
mild southerly flow across nc tonight and Monday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Widespread cirrus clouds will
continue to stream into the region overnight. The combination of
light southerly flow and clouds will result in much milder low
temps. Upper 40s to lower 50s will be the rule, except for lower
to mid 50s for the outer banks.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
As of 330 pm sun... The front to the northwest will move steadily
southeast during the day, reaching the albemarle sound area by
late afternoon. Time sections show moisture increasing deepening
ahead of it, but mainly in the afternoon. Will leave pops as is,
with 20-30% along west of highway 17 in the morning, increasing
in the afternoon to likely along the coastal plain to 40% outer
banks and south coast. SPC has the area in general thunder.

Instability indices in the models are marginal, so will keep
thunder mention at slight chance. Highs will be in the
mid upper 60s northeast counties to mid 70s southwest.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
As of 345 pm sun... No big changes to the forecast with
categorical precip chances Monday night. Unsettled to start the
period as a complex low pressure area and front affect the
region, then dry high pressure builds in with dry conditions
through late in the week. Next cold front and precip chances
arrive by late next weekend.

Monday night through Tuesday... A complex and broad frontal
system will impact the east coast through early Tuesday.

Moisture advection peaks Monday night as we will be located
within the warm sector of the approaching system. Surface low
pressure will slide across the appalachians into the carolinas
Monday evening, then deepen as it moves slowly offshore on
Tuesday. Confidence still high that widespread showers will move
through on Monday night. A few rumbles of thunder remain
possible, though instability will be too low for a severe
threat.

Strong winds and coastal flood concerns will emerge beginning
Tuesday, as deepening low offshore in tandem with building high
across the great lakes mid atlantic strengthen gradient winds.

Wind adv criteria (gusts > 45mph) should be met for coastal
counties for a time, ESP obx zones and downeast carteret. The
strong N to NE winds will likely lead to minor coastal flooding
issues.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Reinforcing cyclogenesis may
occur off the southeast u.S. Coast Tue night through wed, as
another vort lobe swings around base of primary upr trough, as
depicted in 24 12z global model suite. While this next low
should be far enough south to limit threat of rain, the
northeasterly gradient will remain tight, and persistent
moderately strong winds will continue to exacerbate coastal
flood, high surf, and even beach erosion concerns. Temps inland
may come close to freezing for lows Wed morning, and even below
freezing if winds decouple. Will have to watch for potential
frost freeze headlines.

Wednesday night through Saturday... High pressure will begin to
build in more earnestly, with gusty coastal winds abating, and
dry weather will continue. Temps may be close to freezing again
for lows thur morning, then moderate into the 60s by afternoon.

Building hts thicknesses will lead to temps rising to above
climo by Friday into Saturday.

Sunday... While quite a ways out still, have introduced a 20% chc
rain for Sunday, when next cold front could impact E nc. As
expected this far out, there is quite a bit of spread amongst
model ensemble solutions, so timing is subject to change.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1 am mon... High pressure off the coast will continue to
dominate, keepingVFR conditions in place through the morning.

Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a couple of
thunderstorms will develop across the area later this afternoon
and evening as a storm system approaches from the west. Brief
flight restrictions are possible in this passing storms, but
vfr will still prevail. Then, late this evening, the primary
precipitation shield associated with the system will move
overhead, bringing a more persistent rain and likely low
ceilings. Opted for MVFR ceilings toward the end of the taf
period for the time being, but several hours of ifr conditions
are possible overnight tonight.

Long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 345 pm sun... Flight restrictions may linger into Tuesday
morning as a broad and complex storm system impacts the area.

Vfr conditions and gusty northeasterly winds arrive during the
day Tuesday, likely continuing through Wednesday.VFR Thursday
and Friday.

Marine
Short term through Monday ...

as of 935 pm sun... No changes to previous thinking. Good
boating conditions will last through Monday, then rapidly go
downhill Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure off the coast
will continue moving east, while a cold front gradually moves
toward the area from the northwest Monday. The south to
southwest flow between these two features will remain 5-15 kt
with a few gusts to 20 kt northern waters through Monday with
seas 1-3 feet.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 345 pm sun... Introduced a gale watch for Tuesday into
early Wednesday, as low pressure deepens offshore and strong
high pressure builds into the mid atlantic region. Dangerous
boating conditions are expected during this period, and even
beyond into late week as gradient will be slow to relax.

Southwest winds will remain relatively light over the waters
through Monday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The
cold front low pressure area will pass off the coast early
Tuesday morning. The low will deepen offshore Tuesday, with
gales quickly developing before daybreak. While the gales will
diminish only slightly to strong SCA by Wednesday, it will
remain treacherous with high seas continuing through late in the
week possibly. Seas peak as high as 10-14 ft Tuesday into
Tuesday nigh when the strongest winds are expected.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
amz130-131-135-150.

Gale watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
amz152-154.

Gale watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme cb
short term... Hsa
long term... Tl
aviation... Tl cb
marine... Jme hsa tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi41 min SSW 7 G 11 62°F 59°F1022.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi71 min SW 7 G 11 61°F 1023 hPa (-1.0)52°F
41159 32 mi41 min 60°F3 ft
41064 33 mi63 min WSW 9.7 G 14 63°F 60°F1022.2 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi63 min WSW 16 G 19 67°F 66°F1022.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi63 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 59°F 58°F1022.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi41 min 57°F1 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi41 min SSW 8 G 8.9 59°F 58°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC3 mi14 minSSW 910.00 miFair61°F53°F75%1022.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC17 mi17 minS 510.00 miFair57°F50°F78%1021.6 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi15 minS 410.00 miFair56°F50°F81%1021.8 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC23 mi73 minSSW 1010.00 miFair60°F52°F75%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4W34SW7
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S7S4S4CalmSE4CalmS5S5
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:53 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.21.710.40-0.10.10.51.11.722.221.610.50.1-0.10.10.51.11.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.432.31.40.60.1-0.10.10.71.52.22.72.92.72.11.40.60.1-0.10.10.71.52.32.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.