Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Point, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:03PM Thursday November 15, 2018 10:59 PM EST (03:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. NEar shore, seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Point, NC
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location: 34.67, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 160248
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
948 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure moving along the east coast will swing a
cold front across the area this evening. High pressure will
ridge into the region Friday through the weekend. A weak front
will cross the area Sunday night. High pressure will build over
the area early through mid next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 945 pm Thursday... Low pres and assoc deeper moisture conts
to lift N of region. Not seeing anything on rdr over NE tier so
will remove pops. Otherwise no changes planned with widespread
low clouds lifting and sct out late.

Prev disc...

surface analysis this afternoon continues to show a strong high
centered over new england ridging south down the east coast
while low pressure slowly strengthens just south of washington,
nc. The low is forecast to move north of the area by early this
evening and swing a strong cold front across the region by mid
evening. Prospects for heavy rain and severe weather about over
with just some shower activity expected ahead of the front.

Expecting most of the shower activity to end by 7 pm. Much
colder and drier air will surge into the area behind the front
as strong westerly flow develops behind the front tonight.

Although affects from the low are waning, a few impacts are
still expected: 1) minor soundside flooding over the outer banks
tonight into possibly early Friday 2) low water on the western
portions of the pamlico and neuse rivers late tonight into early
Friday. Have cancelled the wind advisory, and the remainder of
the flash flood watches.

Showers are expected ahead of the cold front through about 7
pm, then much cooler and drier air moves into the following the
passage of a strong cold front by mid evening. Some gusty winds
will continue behind the front along the coast but should
remain below advisory levels. Temperatures will fall rapidly
behind the front with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland and
mid to upper 40s coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
As of 335 pm Thursday... High pressure builds over the area from
the north with clear skies and cool temperatures. Highs will
range from the low to mid 50s inland to mid to upper 50s coast.

Gusty coastal winds in the morning will diminish in the
afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm thu... Drier high pressure will build in late week
through this weekend, and then a week coastal trough develops by
Monday and could bring some rain showers to the coast. High
pressure will then build in again through midweek. Temps will
generally be near climo.

Friday night through Sunday... High pressure will build in from
the west through late Friday, and continue to ridge into
eastern nc this weekend. A modest warming trend will be present
this weekend, with highs near climo reaching into the 60-65
range across eastern nc. Low temps will dip to the mid 30s
interior, and low to mid 40s near the beaches (except obx which
will remain in upper 40s).

Sunday night through Monday... A weak coastal trough will
develop and remain near the coast Sunday night into Monday, and
will bring the threat for showers to mainly coastal areas. Have
the best chances of rain after midnight Sunday through Monday
morning, and then taper off pops from west to east later in the
day.

Tuesday through Wednesday... High pressure will build back into
the area from the north, with dry conditions expected. High
temperatures will dip down to a bit below climo, with readings
in the mid upr 50s, and lows in the 30s interior to 40s coast.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 18z Friday ...

as of 7 pm Thursday... High confidence in ifr conditions across
all tafs through about 6z. All forecast soundings and guidance
are indicating ifr through 06z, then give way toVFR conditions
after 8z as drier and cooler air filters into the region. Winds
will be from the west at around 10 knots with gusts up to 20
knots.VFR conditions will persist through TAF period with winds
becoming 10 knots or less after 15z Friday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the
long term as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
Short term tonight and Friday ...

as of 945 pm Thursday... Gusty W winds wl cont over night in
wake of low with good caa. No change to marine forecast with
gales central wtrs and SCA other wtrs.

Prev disc... Winds have briefly diminished late this afternoon
as the warm front moves north of the waters. Expect winds to
increase again by mid evening as westerly flow develops behind a
cold front moving through the waters. Southerly flow ahead of
the front will be mostly be 15-25 kt for the remainder of the
day except for the central waters where winds will be 25-35 kt.

Then behind the front, winds become westerly and increase to
20-30 kt with frequent gusts to 35 kt over the central waters
through tonight. Seas 10-14 ft late today will subside to 6-9 ft
overnight as flow becomes offshore. Thus will extend gales
central waters tonight. Will indicate some gusts to 35 kt over
the sounds and extreme northern and southern waters but think
this will occur for less than 6 hours so will instead post sca's
for the remainder of the waters tonight into early sat.

Winds will diminish to 10-20 kt Friday afternoon as high
pressure builds over the waters though seas will be elevated aoa
6 ft until late in the day.

Have issued low water advisories for the western portion of the
neuse and pamlico rivers as water levels likely drop to 1-2 ft
below normal in the strong westerly flow.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm thurs... Winds will become the N NE 5-15 kts
Saturday and Sunday, and then a coastal trough develops Monday,
and causes winds to turn to the NW at 10-15 kts behind it.

Seas will then become mostly 2-4 ft in the long range.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 945 pm thu... Gusty W winds have developed as low pres has
lifted to the N swinging cold front offshore. With gusts to low
end gale expected overnight water levels could reach 1 to 2 ft
above normal along the outer banks so cont coastal flood
advisory for these minor water increases.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for ncz095-103-104.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 am est Friday for ncz103-104.

Marine... Low water advisory until 10 am est Friday for amz136-137.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for amz130-131-
135>137.

Gale warning until 7 am est Friday for amz152-154-156.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Saturday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Friday for amz158.

Synopsis... Bm mhx
near term... Rf jme
short term... Jme
long term... Tl sgk
aviation... Tl bm ms
marine... Rf jme tl bm
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC17 mi66 minW 1510.00 miOvercast49°F46°F93%1011.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC23 mi62 minW 16 G 2110.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1011 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN11NE13
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2 days agoS10SE12
G24
S12----SW11
G26
--W9SW4W8W8SW9W10W9W10W10W9W6N9N11N11N7N9NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:54 PM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:28 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.91.81.51.20.90.70.70.81.11.51.92.12.22.11.81.51.10.80.60.60.81.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:57 PM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.62.421.51.10.80.711.422.52.82.92.82.41.91.40.90.60.60.91.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.