Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Point, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:26PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:40 PM EST (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:12PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 110 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to choppy. Rain.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Point, NC
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location: 34.67, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211830
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
130 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest through
Tuesday. Another cold front will approach from the west late
Wednesday into Thursday, then move offshore Thursday night.

High pressure builds over the region from the west by late week
into the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 115 pm Monday... Again, only minor adjustments for the
near term forecast mainly to capture trends in hourly temps and
dew points which remain on track from previous update. High
pressure will continue to expand southeast from the upper great
lakes this afternoon into tonight, with a cold and dry airmass
in place across eastern nc. Gusty NW winds will diminish,
especially inland after sunset, with a modest surface-based
inversion establishing itself for interior portions of eastern
nc. Do not expect long duration of calm winds overnight, but a
brief period of decoupling will be possible prior to sunrise.

Tonight will be the coldest night of the season, with met mav
mos a few degrees colder than guidance blend or nbm. Hedged
closer to mos, with lows in the middle teens inland away from
water, and in the lower 20s along the coast where winds should
help mix the boundary layer.

Winds will gust upwards of 20 mph for the outer banks overnight,
leading to wind chill values of 8-10 degrees, and will likely
need another wind chill sps for the obx tonight.

Short term Tuesday
As of 125 pm Monday... The strong upper trough will lift
northeast into the canadian maritimes on Tuesday along upper
ridging to build over the eastern u.S. At the surface, the
strong surface ridge will shift east into the mid-atlantic
states on Tuesday, nosing south over eastern nc. Dry conditions
will again prevail on Tuesday. Winds will shift from north
early in the morning, to northeast by late afternoon, and remain
generally 10 mph or less, with slightly higher winds near the
coast. CAA relaxes by midday with low level thicknesses slowly
rebounding from south to north. MAX temps will range from the
upper 30s north to lower 40s across southern zones.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
As of 220 am mon... High pressure will remain over the region
Tuesday before a slow moving cold front affects the area
Wednesday and Thursday, with a return to warmer and wetter
conditions. Then, drier and colder air return for Friday and the
weekend. A coastal storm may impact eastern nc Sunday night and
into early next week.

Tuesday... Heights will build on Tuesday, as the upper trough
pushes away from the region. However, well below average highs
are again expected, with temps only reaching the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday... Warm southerly flow will develop
Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore and a large storm
system approaches from the west. Most of Wednesday should remain
dry, with only some scattered showers possible along the coast,
and later in the afternoon along the coastal plain. Temps will
climb drastically from lows Wednesday morning around freezing to
the low to mid 60s by Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall associated
with the slow moving cold front will move into the region
Wednesday night, and have pops ramping up from chance to likely.

Have categorical pops for the period of heaviest rain Thursday
morning, and as the front pushes offshore later in the day have
showers tapering off from west to east. Highs on Thursday are
again expected to be in the low to mid 60s.

Friday and Saturday... Behind this storm system a deep longwave
trough will anchor itself over the most of the CONUS centered
over the midwest and deep south. A secondary arctic cold front
will move into the region late Friday, bringing another blast
of frigid weather for the weekend. High temps on Friday will
reach the mid to upper 40s, and then expect highs only in the
low to mid 40s on Saturday. Lows will range from the low to mid
20s inland to the mid 30s along the coast.

Sunday... Though there are still considerable differences in
forecast guidance, it's appearing more probable that a coastal
storm will develop and strengthen along or off the east coast
Sunday night and into Monday. Will introduce chance pops across
the area for the day Sunday. Have high temps ranging from the
mid 40s to low 50s, but this is subject to change depending on
the placement and strength of the low pressure system.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Short term through 18z Tuesday ...

as of 105 pm Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty NW winds will diminish by late afternoon, with
a weak surface-based inversion developing for inland TAF sites
pgv iso. Decoupling will be possible for pgv iso but with
dewpoints in the low single digits, do not expect shallow fog to
be an issue.VFR conditions again on Tuesday as high pressure
noses south over eastern nc.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 240 am mon... .Vfr conditions are expected Tuesday and most
of Wednesday, before a cold front brings sub-vfr ceilings and
rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday.VFR conditions are
expected to return by Thursday evening and last through Friday.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 125 pm Monday... Latest surface and buoy data indicate nw
winds mostly 15-25 kt across the waters, with gusts to 30 kt for
the coastal waters. Further lowered gale warning for the central
and northern waters to small craft advisories based on recent
scant wind data. Seas remain elevated at 6-10 ft in wind-wave
dominant conditions.

High pressure will continue to build over the waters from the
northwest today. Gusty NW nnw winds will subside this evening,
shifting N by Tuesday morning and eventually NE by late Tuesday.

Wind speeds will diminish to 10-15 kt Tuesday. Seas will remain
elevated north of ocracoke overnight and into Tuesday morning
per latest local nwps swan model.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 240 am mon... Small craft conditions are likely to linger
through Tuesday morning, with some 6 ft seas still present
across the coastal waters.

Expect winds Tuesday morning to be N 15-20 kts, before
weakening to 10-15 kts by late afternoon. Winds will turn to the
se early Wednesday morning ahead of the next storm system, and
will strengthen to S 20-25 kts by late afternoon. Gale force
conditions are likely as winds peak Thursday morning at ssw
25-35 kts. Behind the cold front Thursday evening, winds turn to
the W at 15-25 kts. Then, winds Friday become NW 15-20 kts.

Seas Tuesday will become 3-5 ft by the afternoon. Seas will
build Wednesday afternoon to 4-7 ft, and then by Thursday
morning waves are expected to peak around 9-15 ft. Seas slowly
subside Thursday night, and become 4-6 ft on Friday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 10 am mon... Persistent strong northwest winds will
continue today, resulting in elevated water levels along the
sound side of hatteras and ocracoke islands. Inundation is
generally expected to be a foot or less for very low lying
areas.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for amz130-131-
135.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Tuesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Tuesday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory until 11 am est Tuesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Dag
short term... Dag
long term... Sgk
aviation... Dag sgk
marine... Dag sgk
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi47 min NNW 12 G 18 30°F 50°F1028.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi41 min NNW 19 G 21 1027.7 hPa (+0.6)
41159 32 mi41 min 61°F6 ft
41064 33 mi93 min N 21 G 31 32°F 61°F1026.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi93 min N 19 G 31 33°F 58°F1027.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi93 min N 19 G 27 32°F 57°F1028.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi41 min 56°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi47 min NNW 18 G 22 32°F 1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC3 mi44 minNW 13 G 2010.00 miFair33°F-2°F21%1028.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC17 mi47 minNW 1510.00 miFair33°F3°F29%1028.2 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi45 minNW 1910.00 miFair and Breezy31°F-2°F23%1029 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC23 mi1.7 hrsNNW 1710.00 miFair31°F3°F31%1027.9 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE6E5NE3E5SE3SE5SE9SE6SE5--------------S13
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SW11W11--W15W20
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2 days ago--CalmNE4CalmCalm--CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmE4E4E4E3E6E5E10E9NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 12:58 AM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:52 PM EST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:51 PM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.6-0.40.10.91.72.42.72.72.31.60.90.1-0.4-0.5-0.30.20.91.62.12.221.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 01:00 AM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:54 PM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EST     3.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.7-0.40.31.32.33.23.73.73.22.31.30.3-0.4-0.6-0.30.41.32.22.832.721.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.