Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Point, NC

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday July 22, 2018 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 1:13AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 714 Pm Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Scattered showers and tstms early this evening, then showers and tstms likely late this evening and overnight.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Point, NC
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location: 34.67, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 222306
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
706 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low
pressure to the west and southwest through mid to late week.

Associated warm and moist southerly flow will produce above
normal chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least
Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 705 pm Sunday... The beginnings of an "atmospheric river"
type of event is forecast to begin late tonight and continue
into mid week as a plume of tropical moisture characterized by
pw values AOA 2" spreads into our area and interacts with a
persistent mid level trough and associated pertubations which
will lead to periods of enhanced rainfall. The first of these
events is expected after midnight mainly east of highway 17 as
tropical streamers move in off the ocean with the potential for
training of cells producing locally heavy rains. The high
resolution models are indicating the potential for local 4"+
amounts by late Monday. Wpc has our area in a "slight" risk for
excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Considering the forecast of
the heaviest rains over the next 24 hours will be over an area
that received heavy rain Fri night into sat, the risk for
flooding of low lying areas will be enhanced. The need for a
flash flood watch will addressed after the next model run this
evening. In the meantime, diurnally enhanced convection
continues over the area though the the threat of severe weather
should be diminishing with the loss of heating. Expect the
better coverage of precipitation to translate east closer to
the coast with the heaviest amounts expected after midnight.

Warm and muggy temperatures in the low mid 70s expected
overnight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 335 pm Sunday... A plume of deep moisture with sse S low-
level flow, coupled with a stalled frontal boundary, will set
the stage for a wet day on Monday. Will have likely to
categorical pops for Monday as waves of showers and
thunderstorms develop and move from south to north through the
day. With precipitable water values above 2 inches and training
likely, some localized heavy rainfall amounts will be possible.

Cloud cover and rain will hold MAX temperatures in the lower 80s
in most areas for Monday.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 300 am Sunday... A warm and moist southerly flow will
persist through this week due to lingering low pressure to the
west and high pressure over the western atlantic ocean, leading
to unsettled weather conditions from through much of next week.

Monday night through Wednesday... Deep, warm, and moist
southerly flow will persist through much of the upcoming week
between broad low pressure aloft over the deep south states and
western atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for
widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during
peak heating and when periodic shortwaves move through mean flow
aloft. Timing of midlevel features remains the unknown at this
time. The highest chances for rain will be roughly Monday night
through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up over eastern
nc with an elongated axis of very high pwats stretching from
the tropical western atlantic ocean. Given persistence amongst
guidance over the past several runs, have increased pops
slightly during this time frame, with the potential for 2 to 5
inches of rainfall, highest closer to the coast, Monday night
through Wednesday. Will continue to highlight flood potential in
hwo. While moisture will be abundant, instability and shear
will be marginal for supporting widespread severe convection;
thus expect diurnally-driven isolated severe storm potential
each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday... The persistent upper trough to our
west finally fills and shifts northeast from the deep south
states towards the mid-atlantic, with high pressure continuing
offshore. Another deep trough digs into the northern great lakes
region, which will shift the moisture advection from S SE to
southwesterly. Expect convection to be more diurnally focused
each day with a more typical summertime pattern.

Temperatures Monday night through Wednesday will be a few
degrees below climatological normals, ranging from highs in the
mid to upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s for the coast. Temps
will rise to average late july temperatures by Thursday through
the weekend. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s
throughout the week.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 705 pm Sunday... A plume of tropical moisture is forecast
to move over eastern nc tonight into mid week which will help
support heavy showers and thunderstorms. For tonight most of
this activity is expected just east of the TAF sites, however,
oaj and ewn are forecast to be be on the western edge of the
main precipitation area and have the best chance to experience
periodic subVFR conditions, mainly after midnight. Monday the
precipitation should become more widespread and spread inland
with periods of sub-vfr conditions likely at the TAF sites.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Periodic sub-vfr conditions are
expected through Thursday as an unsettled pattern develops
across eastern nc. Southerly flow will persist through much of
next week. Lowered ceilings and visibilities will be more likely
Monday night through Wednesday, then during the overnight hours
for locations that receive precipitation and that can become
calm decouple prior to sunrise early each morning.

Marine
Short term tonight and Monday ...

as of 705 pm Sunday... Southerly flow 15 to 25 kt with gusts to
30 kt at times will continue over the waters through Mon as the
gradient tightens between atlantic high pressure and and low
pressure inland. Seas 4 to 6 ft early this evening will build to
5-9 later tonight and through the day Monday. No changes needed
to current advisories.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 345 am Sunday... SCA conditions expected to start the week
with SE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-8 ft. Low end SCA conditions
are expected over the waters from Tuesday through Thursday when
moderate S SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low pressure well
west of the waters and high pressure across the western atlantic
ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes
of the coastal waters. While boating conditions will be poor for
most of the period, conditions will be exacerbated by a
prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms from approximately
Monday night through Wednesday. Winds and seas will eventually
fall below SCA levels by late week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt Thursday for amz150-152-
154-156-158.

Synopsis... Jme ctc
near term... Jme ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag jme ms
marine... Dag jme ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi39 min S 12 G 16 83°F1009.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi87 min SSE 17 G 19 1009.6 hPa (-0.0)
41159 32 mi57 min 82°F5 ft
41064 33 mi139 min S 12 G 16 83°F 82°F1008.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi39 min S 18 G 19 85°F1008.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi57 min 82°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi79 min SSE 16 G 21 82°F 83°F1007.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi79 min S 16 G 21 82°F 82°F1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC3 mi30 minS 1310.00 miFair83°F75°F77%1009.7 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC17 mi4.6 hrsS 13 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F79°F85%1008.4 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi31 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds83°F78°F85%1008.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC23 mi89 minS 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F80°F91%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
G18
--SW7----S4--------S4S3SE7SE5CalmS3S8S10
G17
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G19
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G22
1 day agoE7E8NE11NE7NE5E4SE7E6--SE7E6E4E6E3--Calm----NW9----W8--W12
2 days agoNE11NE11E9E5E4CalmE3E4E5E7E6E6E8E6SE4E8E6E6E11
G18
E6SE4E13NE5E10

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:10 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:56 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.711.41.71.81.81.51.10.60.30.10.20.511.522.32.42.31.91.410.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:13 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:59 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.31.82.32.52.421.50.80.40.10.20.61.222.63.13.33.12.61.91.20.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.