Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 28, 2017 12:30 PM EDT (16:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 950 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 281400
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1000 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary will stall across northern sections
before lifting back north this evening. A cold front will drift
in Monday night and become stationary along the coast through
the end of the next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1000 am Sunday, weakening convective complex is moving
across western sc at mid-morning. What is left of this complex
will move into unstable air later this afternoon as skies are
generally clear across most of our cwa, except for the far
northeast where thick mid-level clouds persist behind a frontal
boundary. Have lowered pops for a few hours as we should stay
fairly quiet into the early afternoon. Latest 3km hrrr not very
robust with storm coverage this afternoon, but suspect once the
remnants of the convective complex moves into the very unstable
airmass, scattered thunderstorms will start to develop by mid to
late afternoon with some potential for strong to locally severe
storms. Think wind would be the primary threat as wet-bulb zero
and freezing heights are quite high this morning, 11,600 feet
and 13,950 feet respectively, so it would take quite an update
to see much large hail. After a very warm start this morning,
temperatures on track to be around 90 inland and mid 80s coast
this afternoon before convection starts.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 330 am Sunday... Frontal boundary will lift back north this
evening but on-going scattered convective activity expected to
persist into evening with continued short wave energy. Models
continue to indicate best coverage over northern sections and
will forecast 30% pops south to 50% north. Activity expected to
diminish overnight and or move off coast, thus just a lingering
20% inland to 30% coast for pops after 2 am. Min temps remaining
muggy around 70.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 330 am Sunday... Did not make any significant changes to the
extended period forecast with this update. An unsettled pattern will
be the rule through the extended period as shortwaves disturbances
move through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low confidence
through the period due to timing and exact locations of
shortwaves frontal boundaries across area.

Monday-Monday night... Expect a mostly dry start to the day Monday
with increasing chances of convection in the afternoon associated
with an approaching shortwave. There will also be a weak front
approaching the area. Gfs ECMWF forecast soundings indicate mucape
values of 1500-2500 with deep layer shear (0-6km) increasing to near
50 kt, thus concern for strong to severe storms remains. Spc
continues to keep the area in a slight risk of severe for their day
2 outlook. Kept pops in 30 to 40 percent range in the afternoon and
into the overnight. Guidance indicates MAX temps 90-94 inland, with
mid to upper 80s along the coast. Lows Monday night remaining muggy
70-74.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... The frontal boundary is expected to
stall across the area Tuesday morning, and wash out across area
with additional short wave energy resulting in another period
of mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday
afternoon convection could be similar to or exceed Monday's
activity, mainly because of better moisture focused along the
stalled front and channeled shortwave vorticity over the region
coincident with peak afternoon heating. More cloud cover and
lower thicknesses will keep MAX temps mainly in the 80s. Lows
Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. SPC has the entire
area again under a slight risk of severe for their day 3 outlook
with continued instability and shear.

Wednesday-Saturday... Low confidence for this forecast period due to
poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks following
closely with wpc preferences. The 00z GFS continues the wet trend
for Wednesday and Wednesday night, though the ECMWF still suggests
the stalled boundary may be farther offshore. Drying trend for
Thursday looks good with front off coast. Higher chance pops for
Friday with front lifting back north, helping to focus moisture over
the area through Saturday. MAX temps generally in the mid 80s
through the period. Lows from mid 60s to lower 70s.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through 12z Monday
as of 715 am Sunday...VFR expected through TAF period outside
of scattered tstms this afternoon and evening. Weak frontal
boundary will stall just north of TAF sites this morning and
then return north this evening, with TAF sites remaining in warm
sector. Latest meso models indicate remnant convective activity
now moving over NE ga will move east and produce scattered to
broken coverage over mainly southern half of area this afternoon
into evening. Brief periods of sub-vfr will accompany any
stronger showers tstms that affect TAF sites. Sub-vfr
fog stratus development late tonight will be dependent on
precip coverage this afternoon and evening.

Long term Monday through Thursday
as of 330 am Sunday ... Expect periods of sub-vfr with
convective activity each afternoon and evening from Monday
through Thursday. Less coverage for Thursday.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 10 am Sunday... Winds remain light across the coastal
waters and sounds this morning, generally 10 knots or less,
except around 15 knots at diamond buoy. Winds are NE E over the
far northern waters and albemarle sound behind weak front but
are SW elsewhere. This boundary will lift back north later today
with winds becoming SW everywhere. Seas continue very light, at
1-3 feet. Tightening of pressure gradient will lead to period
of SW winds 15-20 kt over southern half of waters this afternoon
into evening, diminishing back to 10-15 kt overnight.

Seas over northern waters expected to remain around 2 feet due
to light winds. Southern waters will see heights build to 3-4
feet later this afternoon into this evening.

Long term Monday through Thursday
as of 330 am Sunday... The period will experience zonal flow
with weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into
the area. Specifics are difficult to forecast with regard to the
frontal location. Do not have much confidence to times that
occurs, except that by Thursday the front should push through
at least the northern waters for a brief period. The southern
half of waters will mainly see SW winds 5-15 knots during period
but northern waters will see some periods of shifting winds but
with speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some
periods of seas building to 4 feet for outer portions with
stronger SW winds around 15 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-3
feet during the extended period. Nwps and wavewatch in good
agreement through the medium range, with wavewatch appearing
reasonable for the extended seas forecast.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Ctc
short term... Jbm
long term... Rsb
aviation... Rsb jbm
marine... Rsb ctc jbm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi43 min SW 8 G 12 79°F 72°F1011.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi31 min SW 12 G 17 79°F 1012.1 hPa (+0.6)
41159 33 mi48 min 77°F4 ft
41064 33 mi83 min WSW 12 G 16 77°F 77°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Last
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SW11
SW10
G14
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G16
SW12
G15
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G16
SW10
G13
SW10
G14
SW7
G11
SW5
G9
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G9
SW2
G7
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G11
SW6
G10
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SW3
G7
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G6
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1 day
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SW6
G12
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G17
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G14
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G17
SW7
G14
SW8
G14
SW7
G13
SW7
G12
SW5
G11
W5
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G10
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G7
SW3
SW3
W2
G5
W3
G8
NW2
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SW3
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G9
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G7
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G10
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G12
2 days
ago
SW8
G20
SW11
G20
SW17
G22
SW11
G20
SW11
G19
SW10
G14
SW11
G17
SW12
G20
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G21
SW11
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W11
G20
W7
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G17
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G14
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W7
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G14
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G12
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G11
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W6
G12
NW8
G14
W6
G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC1 mi34 minSW 1310.00 miFair82°F72°F72%1012.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi97 minSW 11 G 1610.00 miFair88°F68°F52%1011.3 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi33 minSW 1510.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1012.3 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi35 minSW 12 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F71°F61%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11--SW11SW11
G20
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G16
SW13
G18
SW11
G18
SW11SW9SW9W7SW8SW6SW5W6SW7W4SW4--SW7SW8SW10SW13
1 day ago--W7
G18
W11SW13S15
G20
W10
G16
4SW7SW8SW6W4W3W3CalmW3W3CalmW3W3W5SW5SW7SW7SW13
2 days agoSW17
G27
SW20
G32
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G30
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SW16
G23
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W11
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W9W8
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G15
W56W7W9NW9
G18
W11
G20
W8
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:47 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.50.6-0.1-0.4-0.4-00.61.41.92.22.21.81.20.4-0.1-0.4-0.30.10.81.72.533.1

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:26 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.71.410.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.20.611.21.21.10.70.40-0.2-0.3-0.10.30.81.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.