Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:28PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:20 AM EST (09:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 329 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Thursday evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Thu..S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft, except 9 to 13 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230858
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
358 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west later tonight into
Thursday, then move offshore Thursday night. High pressure builds in
from the west by Friday into Monday. Another cold front will approach
the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 350 am Wednesday... Latest surface analysis showing axis of
high pressure ridge moving offshore and deeper moisture
approaches from the south and southwest. Mid and high clouds
continue to stream in from the southwest. However, the low-
levels remain quite dry and expect little in the way of
precipitation through the daylight hours today and will keep
afternoon pops low. Increased southerly flow will lead to good
warm air advection leading to much milder high temperatures
today into the low mid 60s area wide.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 350 am Wednesday... Deep moist environment expected across
eastern nc as the area will be in the warm sector with enhanced
lift ahead of oncoming cold front. Low-level wind fields will be
strong with h8 winds of up to 60 knots depicted in high-
resolution models overnight. This will lead to periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Embedded thunderstorms are also
possible, but despite the healthy wind fields, limited
instability should keep the threat of any stronger or severe
storms low. Simulated water vapor satellite imagery from the
ecmwf shows nice plume of deep moisture moving across the
eastern carolinas late tonight early Thursday. This will lead to
some localized heavy downpours, with QPF totals likely to be
around an inch and locally up to 1.5 inches. Clouds and
precipitation should hold minimum temperatures in the mild upper
50s tonight.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 230 am wed... A cold front cross the area Thursday. Then,
drier and colder air return for Friday and the weekend. Rain
chances increase by early next week especially along the coast
as a weak system moves up the coast.

Thursday... A bevy of impacts will be possible Thursday morning
into the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds will be very
strong out of the ssw for the first half of the day with wind
gusts of 40-55 mph likely along the outer banks and coastal
carteret and mainland dare counties. A wind advisory has been
issued for these areas. An expansive area of prefrontal rain and
convection also appears likely, which will lead to 1"-1.5" of
rain, with the heaviest amounts along the coast. A few
thunderstorms remain are anticipated, with a few strong to even
severe storms possible, given the strong dynamics present
(including 925 mb winds in excess of 70 kts). Will maintain
categorical pops for the morning hours, and then scale back
pops to chance through the afternoon, as conditions begin to dry
behind the front. Temperatures will be very warm for most of
the day, with readings in the low to mid 60s. Temps will crash
behind the front, dropping into the low to mid 30s overnight.

Friday and Saturday... Behind this storm system a deep longwave
trough will anchor itself over the most of the CONUS centered
over the midwest and deep south. A secondary arctic cold front
will move into the region late Friday, bringing another blast
of frigid weather for the weekend. High temps on Friday will
reach the mid to upper 40s, and then low temps will fall into
the low to mid 20s inland Friday night, with low 30s expected
along the immediate shoreline. Latest model trends don't show as
strong of a cold air blast, and heights will begin building
Saturday morning, which will allow temps to rebound into the mid
to upper 40s by the afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast guidance has backed off of the
idea for a coastal storm in the Sunday to Monday time frame. The
latest guidance shows high pressure ridging into the area from
the SW on Sunday, and then have high pressure shifting offshore
on Monday. A weak area of low pressure is expected to track
somewhere up the east coast on Tuesday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Will now carry dry weather both Sunday and Monday,
and introduce chance pops on Tuesday. Temperatures through this
period will be milder, with highs mostly in the 50s, and
possibly upper 50s on Tuesday. Lows will be around average.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 06z Thursday ...

as of 1250 am Wednesday... Widespread high cloudiness detected on
ir satellite tonight. This cloudiness will continue to thicken
and lower as the day wears on, but expectVFR conditions to
prevail through 00z tonight. After that time, deeper moisture
with a SE S flow will lead to the formation of stratus stratocumulus
and MVFR ceilings. Think the bulk of any precipitation will hold
off until after 06z. Low-level wind shear will also be possible
after midnight as strong gusty southerly winds develop with more
sw wsw winds aloft.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 300 am wed... .A cold front will bring sub-vfr ceilings
and rain showers Thursday.VFR conditions are expected to
return by Thursday evening and last through Sunday.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 355 am Wednesday... Early this morning, winds remain light
with seas 2-4 feet. Forecast trends continue to show the
development of a strong low-level jet tonight with h8 winds as
high as 60 knots. With high confidence, have issued a gale
warning for the coastal water and sounds from around midnight
tonight into Thursday afternoon. Gusts as high as 45 knots will
be possible. Latest local nwps swan model shows seas as high as
10-15 feet tonight, peaking on Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 300 am wed... Gale warnings are now in effect for all the
coastal waters and sounds, except for the inland rivers.

Strong winds are expected Thursday out of the ssw at 30-40 kts
with gusts 40-50 kts, which will allow seas to build to 12-19 ft
across the coastal waters... Largest over the central waters.

Winds turn to the NW at 15-25 kts behind the front Thursday
night, and then continue out of the NW 10-20 kts Friday and into
Saturday morning. Winds become light and somewhat variable from
Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Seas will slowly subside to
5-10 ft by Friday morning, and then to 2-4 ft Saturday and
Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 am wed... Strong winds on Thursday will lead to high
water levels on the soundside of the outer banks north of cape
hatteras, where inundation up to 1 foot will be possible. High
surf is expected across the southern facing beaches with minor
beach erosion possible.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm est Thursday for
ncz047-095-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Thursday for amz136-137.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Thursday for
amz135-152-154-156-158.

Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Thursday for amz130-131.

Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sgk
aviation... Ctc sgk
marine... Ctc sgk
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi33 min NE 1 G 1.9 42°F 47°F1033.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi81 min ENE 8.9 G 8.9 1033.7 hPa (-1.7)
41064 33 mi73 min S 12 G 16 58°F 59°F1031.6 hPa
41159 33 mi21 min 59°F3 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC1 mi24 minENE 5 miFair38°F36°F93%1033.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi4.4 hrsENE 37.00 miClear32°F28°F88%1035.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi83 minENE 410.00 miFair34°F34°F100%1033.8 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi25 minE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F30°F89%1032.5 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3N3N4N9N95N7CalmSE7E8E8E6E7NE6NE5NE5NE7E6NE7NE6NE4NE5E5
1 day agoNW11
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N7N9N4NW3NW3W3N3NW3NW3N4N4N4
2 days agoSW19
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Wed -- 02:47 AM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:10 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:37 PM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.40.211.82.42.72.521.30.5-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.20.41.21.82.22.32

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:16 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:17 AM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:00 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:44 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.50.1-0.2-0.4-0.300.50.91.31.51.51.20.90.40-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.611.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.