Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Knoll Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:45 PM EDT (22:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:19AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 321 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC
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location: 34.69, -76.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 202037 cca
afdmhx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service newport morehead city nc
437 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions across the region. A weak cold front will
approach the region early next week and stall.

Near term tonight
As of 3 pm Thursday... A few very isolated showers have developed
along the seabreeze. These showers will quickly die after sunset,
and conditions will be dry overnight. Low temps will be a few
degrees warmer than this morning, generally in the low 70s inland
and the mid upper 70s along the coast.

Short term Friday
As of 3 pm Thursday... The mid to upper level ridge will continue to
build in, while at the surface, the piedmont trough inland and high
pressure off the SE coast. An increase of precip water values
between 1.75-2.00 inches by Friday evening which could lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorm late Friday afternoon, but
forecast soundings are showing dry conditions below 850 mb. At this
time will hold off the mention of showers as it can be very
isolated.

Overall, the main story is the increase heat across the region.

Guidance is in agreement with our local low level thickness study
with high in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s low 90s along
the beaches. Will hold off in issuing a heat advisory as dewpoint
temps will be in the low 70s along the coastal plains, meanwhile the
coastal counties look marginal. Will let the midnight shift to
reanalyze.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 315 pm thu... No significant changes with this forecast
issuance as models remain in good agreement and continuity. Main
issue during period will be the potential for several days of
dangerous heat and humidity for the area with highs well into
the 90s and heat index values of 105+ degrees this weekend as an
upper ridge extends east into the area. Chances for rain this
weekend will also be minimal (only 20%) during the afternoon and
evening hours. Much better chance of showers storms arrive
early next week as a trough and cool front move in.

Saturday through Sunday... 20 12z global model suite remain in
good agreement with extending the west-central upper ridge
eastward into the mid atlantic southeast states. This pattern
will lead to increasing temps and humidity with below normal
convective coverage through the weekend. What activity there is
should be diurnally driven in the late afternoon and early
evenings although will have to be on the outlook for possible
upstream MCS development which may skirt the northern tier. Spc
has NE nc in marginal severe risk for late Sat due to this
possibility but most guidance currently keeps thunderstorm
threat north of albemarle sound, thus will continue advertising
no higher than a 20 pop through the weekend, mainly across
interior zones.

12z ECMWF gfs cmc in good agreement with low level thicknesses
around 1435-1440 meters sat-sun. This will support MAX temps
easily reaching the mid 90s each day. With dewpoints forecast to
be in the 70s, critical heat index values AOA 105 degrees are
expected Sat and Sun afternoons.

Forecast MAX temps will generally be at least 5 degrees below
record highs at most sites during period, with the exception of
khse and knca where forecast is within 3 degrees of records
mainly sat-sun. See climate section below for details.

Monday through Wednesday... Ensemble height fields indicate a
lowering of heights thicknesses beginning as early as Monday,
and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed
due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This
will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and
lead to increasing shower storm chances. The ECMWF is quite
moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g kg
with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the
region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat
developing.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through Friday ...

as of 1246 pm thurs...VFR conditions are expected for most of
the period. This afternoon will be dry, with continued scattered
cumulus throughout the region. There is the potential for some
MVFR fog inland early Friday morning, however, confidence was
too low to include in the taf's at this time. Another dry day is
expected on Friday, with partly cloudy skies and light winds.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 315 pm Thursday...VFR expected to prevail most of the
period with return of offshore high inland trough pattern. The
weekend looking dry with just a very small chance (20%) of an
afternoon or evening storm. There will also be occasional brief
sub-VFR conditions during the early morning hours with the
threat for low stratus and or fog. Better chances for
showers storms arrive early next week with subVFR as a front
moves into the area.

Marine
Short term through Friday ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Latest buoy obs are showing light and variable
winds and seas 2-3 ft. Great boating conditions will continue for
the next few hours under light and variable winds, then become more
sw and increasing to 10-15 knots tonight and tomorrow. Seas will be
2-3 ft this afternoon and then increase to 2-4 ft late tonight
through tomorrow.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 315 pm thu... No significant changes to previous forecast
thinking. The flow is expected to increase to SW 10 to 20 kt
across the marine domain on Sat with atlantic offshore high
pressure and a weak inland trough of low pressure influencing
the wind pattern. Seas are expected to increase to 3-4 ft with
some 5 footers possible over the outer waters Saturday. Latest
models have SCA winds seas developing as early as Sat night and
continuing through late Sunday as SW gradient further tightens.

Used a blend of nwps wwiv as the nwps appears a bit too high on
wave heights.

Climate
Record MAX temps for 07 21 (fri)
location temp year
new bern 103 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 94 1977 (khse asos)
greenville 102 1977 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 106 1926 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 100 1987 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 22 (sat)
location temp year
new bern 106 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1987 (khse asos)
greenville 102 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 100 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 105 1932 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 99 2011 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 23 (sun)
location temp year
new bern 100 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1972 (khse asos)
greenville 103 1932 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 103 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 24 (mon)
location temp year
new bern 99 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 90 2016 (khse asos)
greenville 99 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tl bm
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Tl
aviation... Tl cjl
marine... Tl bm
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 7 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 83°F 80°F1015.1 hPa (-1.8)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 15 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 83°F 1015.4 hPa (-2.1)
41159 34 mi32 min 83°F2 ft
41064 34 mi37 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 84°F1015.6 hPa
41063 46 mi45 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 83°F 1015.8 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC8 mi1.8 hrsSSW 1010.00 miFair84°F75°F74%1016.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi51 minS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds86°F73°F65%1015.3 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi48 minSW 810.00 miFair79°F73°F85%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3N5NW5N5NW3S7S7S8S10SW10SW10S10
1 day agoSE6CalmSW3W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4S5SW4S9S8S9S10S6
2 days agoSW9SW6SW7CalmS5SW3CalmS6S3CalmSE5SE4CalmNE3CalmNW7E5NE5E5E7NE5E6E5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Thu -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.100.20.50.811.21.10.90.60.3-0-0.2-0.2-00.40.81.31.61.71.51.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina
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Fort Macon
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Thu -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:55 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.51.322.7332.51.810.3-0.1-0.10.51.32.33.23.843.732.11.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.