Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Knoll Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:20PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:09 PM EDT (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:04PMMoonset 6:10AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 402 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 8 to 11 ft, except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy late. Showers early this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms late this evening and overnight.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. NEar shore, seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except around 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds in the morning. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC
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location: 34.69, -76.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201953
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
353 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will lift north across the area tonight. The low
will move north of the region Thursday pushing a cold front
offshore. Another, mainly dry cold front will push across the
area late Friday. High pressure will build into the area this
weekend. Low pressure is expected to impact the region early to
mid next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 345 pm wed... Complex surface pattern next 24 hours as a
digging upper trough and phasing shortwaves produce soggy
weather across eastern nc tonight into early Thursday. Tonight
developing low pressure to the south will move onshore and north
across eastern nc tonight along a track vicinity of highway 17
and is forecast to be located north of rocky mount, nc by 12z
thu. As the low approaches winds will veer to the SE and S late
this evening and overnight allowing moist air to overspread the
area tonight. Current disorganized shower activity will increase
in coverage this evening then become better organized after
midnight as the low moves across the region. Rainfall could be
locally heavy late tonight into early Thu with some thunder and
lightning possible near the coast. The heaviest rains will occur
ahead of a surge of dry mid level air (dry slot) which will be
moving into the coastal plain late tonight. Low temp forecast
tricky as temps will drop a few degrees this evening then steady
or slightly rise late as the flow becomes southerly. Will
generally indicate lows in the 50s areawide.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 345 pm wed... The rain could end sooner than currently
depicted in the forecast as the mid level dry slot surges east
across the area in the morning. Locally heavy rains should be
ongoing along the coast east of morehead city to the outer
banks. The high res models are forecasting widespread storm
total precipitation of 1-2" with local amounts of 3+" which
could lead to minor poor drainage flooding. Most if not all of
the afternoon should be dry as the flow shifts to the SW and w
behind a cold front. Highs will be in the lower 60s.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 330 pm wed... An area of low pressure will lift north
of the area Thu night the rain ending in the evening. A mainly
dry cold front will cross the region late fri. High pressure
will build over the area this weekend bringing dry wx and a
warming trend Sun into mon. The next system look to impact the
area Mon night into wed.

Thu night through Friday night... Could see widely scattered
showers lingering Thu evening until the upper trough axis
pushes across the area. Expect dry conditions Friday but models
are now showing another embedded shortwave and cold front moving
south through the great lakes and pushing across the region
Friday evening. Expect a dry frontal passage with moistening
limited to just above 850 mb and with a very dry sub-cloud
layer in place, any precip is expected to evaporate before
reaching the ground. Temps expected to be a few degrees below
normal with high in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will be in
the 40s Thu night with mid to upper 30s inland behind the front
fri night.

Saturday through Sunday night... The upper trough slowly moves
offshore Sat with an upper ridge and surface high pressure
building over the area Sat night into early sun. The high will
drift offshore late Sun and Sun night with a complex system
approaching from the west. Dry conditions continue over the
weekend with temps remaining below normal Saturday with highs in
the mid 50s to around 60 but will begin to see a warming trend
sun with southerly flow developing in the afternoon with the
high moving offshore.

Monday into Wednesday... A complex low pressure system is
expected to impact the region early to mid next week bringing a
return of unsettled weather, however details and timing remain
uncertain as model spread and run to run consistency remains
poor. Best chances for rain are looking to be Mon night into
wed. Temps will likely be above normal Mon with southerly flow
persisting ahead of the low pressure system and expect highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temps expected to be cooler Tue and
wed with more clouds and precip in the area.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 345 pm wed... SubVFR conditions are expected through
early Thu afternoon. Widespread showers with locally heavy rains
will occur this evening through late tonight with occasional
MVFR to ifr visibilities. Ceilings will become ifr early this
evening but could briefly lift to MVFR or better 3-9z as
southerly flow scours out some of the low level moisture. The
ceiling guidance redevelops ifr ceilings after 9z through noon
thu.VFR conditions should develop around 18z thu.

Long term Thu night through Mon ...

as of 330 pm wed...VFR expected Thu night through Sun as high
pres builds across with dry air over the region.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 345 pm wed... Sca's continue for the waters. Low pressure
will move north and inland across eastern nc tonight then push a
cold front across the waters Thu as the low moves well north of
the area. Winds will veer from SE 15-25 kt and gusty this
evening to S late tonight and early thu. Seas will build to 8-12
ft tonight. Thu afternoon winds will become SW 15-20 kt with
seas subsiding to 4-7 ft.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 330 pm wed... Breezy wnw winds around 10-20 kt on the
sounds and rivers and 15-25 kt on the coastal waters continue
thu night into fri, then a dry cold front will push across the
waters Fri evening with CAA bringing NW winds around 15-25 kt.

Seas around 4-7 ft are expected to continue into Sat morning.

High pressure builds into the region sat, then becomes centered
across the area late Sat night and early sun, then pushes
offshore by Sun afternoon. Expect NW winds to 15-25 kt sat
afternoon, becoming variable less than 15 kt late Sat night and
sun morning as the high migrates across the area, then becomes
sw Sun afternoon as the high moves offshore. Seas are expected
to subside to below 6 ft Sat evening and to 2-4 ft by sun
morning. On Mon winds are forecast W to SW 10-15 kt with seas
2-4 ft.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 345 pm wed... Gusty SE flow tonight will lead to higher
than normal water levels along the south facing beaches. Issued
a high surf advisory for rough surf and minor beach erosion for
the beaches from oregon inlet to topsail beach.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... High surf advisory until 5 am edt Thursday for ncz095-098-103-
104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Thursday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for amz150-152-
154.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Hsa
aviation... Jme hsa
marine... Jme hsa
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 7 mi40 min NNE 12 G 14 53°F 54°F1020 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 15 mi70 min E 23 G 27 62°F 1019.2 hPa (-2.5)53°F
41064 34 mi62 min ESE 21 G 29 61°F 62°F1017.1 hPa
41159 34 mi40 min 62°F11 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC8 mi72 minN 1410.00 miLight Rain53°F51°F93%1020 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi16 minNNE 101.50 miLight Rain54°F53°F97%1019.9 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi13 minNNE 117.00 miLight Rain54°F52°F93%1020 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE7E3NE4NE20
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2 days agoNE9NE8NE10NE9NE6NE6NE5N6NE3CalmNE4NE4NE4N5NE3NE5E8NE8E9E9SE9SE7SE7E5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Wed -- 04:04 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:01 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:23 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.20.20.61.11.41.61.51.20.80.40-0.2-0.200.40.91.31.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina
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Fort Macon
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:38 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:58 AM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.5-0.6-0.20.71.82.93.63.83.62.81.70.6-0.2-0.6-0.40.31.42.53.33.83.73.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.