Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Knoll Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:28PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 3:59 AM EST (08:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:34PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 329 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Thursday evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Thu..S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft, except 9 to 13 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC
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location: 34.69, -76.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230558
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1258 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure just to the north will drift offshore tonight.

A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday night into
Thursday, then move offshore Thursday night. High pressure
builds in from the west by late week into early weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1250 am Wednesday... Axis of strong surface ridge lingers
along the coast, but should drift offshore tonight. Temperatures
fell off quickly earlier tonight, but have already started to
level off or slowly rise. As higher cloud cover increases and
flow becomes more SE overnight, temperatures may rise a bit
more. Overall, forecast in pretty good shape with no big changes
planned for this update.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Thursday
As of 230 pm Tuesday... Much warmer as low lvl flow becomes s
and increases between offshore high pres and slowly approaching
cold front. Thicknesses support highs mainly low mid 60s with
beaches a bit cooler with flow off cold near shore water. Expect
good deal of clouds across the region as moisture slowly
increases, however not expecting much precip with just slight
pops near coast and SW tier.

Long term Thursday through Wednesday
As of 245 pm wed... A slow moving cold front will impact the
area Wednesday night and Thursday, with a return to warmer and
wetter conditions. Then, drier and colder air return for Friday
and the weekend. A coastal storm may impact eastern nc Sunday
night and into early next week.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Rainfall associated with the
slow moving cold front will move into the region Wednesday
night, and have pops ramping up from chance to likely. Have
categorical pops for the period of heaviest rain Thursday
morning, and as the front pushes offshore later in the day have
showers tapering off from west to east. Have added the
possibility of an isolated thunderstorm to the forecast Thursday
morning, as some instability may develop right along the coast,
and given strong dynamic environment, a few rain showers could
develop into low topped thunderstorms. Additionally, guidance
indicates that several hours of sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph
mainly along the outer banks Thursday, and a wind advisory may
eventually be needed. There is some uncertainty
with the timing of the frontal progression and arrival of the
strongest winds, but generally prefer the ECMWF solution of
bringing the strongest winds to the outer banks midday. Highs
on Thursday are again expected to be in the low to mid 60s.

Friday and Saturday... Behind this storm system a deep longwave
trough will anchor itself over the most of the CONUS centered
over the midwest and deep south. A secondary arctic cold front
will move into the region late Friday, bringing another blast
of frigid weather for the weekend. High temps on Friday will
reach the mid to upper 40s, and then low temps will fall into
the low to mid 20s inland Friday night, with low 30s expected
along the immediate shoreline. Latest model trends don't show as
strong of a cold air blast, and heights will begin building
Saturday morning, which will allow temps to rebound into the mid
to upper 40s by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday... A coastal storm is possible later Sunday
and into Monday. However, latest forecast guidance has muddied
the waters more, with most models now showing a suppressed and
weaker solution with the low pressure system. This would mean
mostly dry weather for both days, which is in contrast to
guidance over the past several model runs which showed some
decent rainfall and impacts to the area. Will still hold on to
pops for both days, but have lowered pops to mostly slight
chance, and will look for some consistency on the next set of
model runs. As of now, temperatures appear mild with highs in
the 50s and low in the 30s.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 06z Thursday ...

as of 1250 am Wednesday... Widespread high cloudiness detected on
ir satellite tonight. This cloudiness will continue to thicken
and lower as the day wears on, but expectVFR conditions to
prevail through 00z tonight. After that time, deeper moisture
with a SE S flow will lead to the formation of stratus stratocumulus
and MVFR ceilings. Think the bulk of any precipitation will hold
off until after 06z. Low-level wind shear will also be possible
after midnight as strong gusty southerly winds develop with more
sw wsw winds aloft.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 320 am tues... .A cold front will bring sub-vfr ceilings
and rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday.VFR conditions
are expected to return by Thursday evening and last through
Saturday.

Marine
Short term through Wed ...

as of 1255 am Wednesday... No major changes to marine forecast as
winds remain light from the ene e. Winds should veer to more
se sse toward morning. Seas continue at 3-4 feet. S winds will
increase to 15 to 25 kts later Wed as pres grdnt tightens
between offshore high pres and slowly approaching cold front.

Seas will build to 3 to 5 ft Wed aftn.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 245 pm tues... Added a gale watch for the albemarle sound
and alligator river for Thursday, resulting in gale watches now
covering all marine areas except the tar pamlico and neuse bay
rivers, where a small craft advisory has been issued.

Winds and seas Wednesday will be building as southerly flow
increases ahead of the front. Winds will be 20-30 kts by
Wednesday night and seas will range from 6-10 ft. Winds will
peak late Thursday morning at ssw 30-40 kts with gusts 40-50
kts, and seas will build to 11-17 ft by Thursday afternoon.

Winds turn to the NW at 15-25 kts behind the front Thursday
night, and then continue out of the NW 10-20 kts for Friday and
Saturday. Seas will slowly subside to 5-10 ft by Friday morning,
and then to 3-5 ft by early Saturday morning.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Thursday for amz136-137.

Gale watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
amz135.

Gale watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
amz130-131.

Gale watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
amz152-154-156-158.

Gale watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Rf
long term... Sgk cb
aviation... Ctc cqd cb
marine... Ctc cqd cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 7 mi59 min N 2.9 G 4.1 39°F 47°F1034.1 hPa (-1.7)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 15 mi59 min ENE 8.9 G 8.9 1033.7 hPa (-1.7)
41064 34 mi51 min S 12 G 16 58°F 59°F1031.6 hPa
41159 34 mi59 min 59°F3 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC8 mi2 hrsENE 310.00 miFair34°F34°F100%1034.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi4.1 hrsENE 37.00 miClear32°F28°F88%1035.5 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi2 hrsNNE 410.00 miFair33°F30°F89%1034.9 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N6N6N5NE7NE10N11N9NE8NE6NE8--E4CalmNE4NE4NE5NE6NE5E5E3E3E4
1 day agoNW20
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N15NW17NW14NW14NW13NW9N9N6N5N4N5N5N7N7
2 days agoS15
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S15SW13SW11W11W10SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Wed -- 05:16 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:17 AM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:00 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:44 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.50.1-0.2-0.4-0.300.50.91.31.51.51.20.90.40-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.611.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina
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Fort Macon
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:50 AM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:41 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1-0-0.7-0.9-0.50.31.42.53.43.83.631.90.8-0.2-0.8-0.8-0.30.61.62.63.13.22.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.