Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Knoll Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:22 AM EST (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 3:48AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 110 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Areas of dense fog.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough. A chance of rain.
Sat..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers likely, then a chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC
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location: 34.69, -76.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200607
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
107 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through Tuesday. High pressure will then
build into the region through Friday. The next storm system
will affect the region this weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1 am tue... No changes to zones. Widespread fog continues
over the forecast area with visibilities ranging from as low as
1 4 mile to 4 miles. This is covered by a special weather
statement. Will issue a dense fog advisory if visibilities
become widespread and 1 4 mile or less. Temps are near their
overnight lows currently, though another degree or two of
cooling is possible.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
As of 3 pm mon... Lingering fog may affect the morning commute,
before inc SW winds erode it. Cold front will sweep through
the afternoon hours. Enough bndry layer moisture and some lift
ahead of the front could spark some iso sct showers through
early afternoon. Best chances for a shower may be the southern
half of the fa. Highs will be mild as low lvl thicknesses and
mos guide in pretty good agreement in highs in the low mid 60s.

Long term tonight through Monday
As of 310 pm mon... Mostly quiet weather is expected through
Friday as surface high pressure prevails across the area. The
models continue to signal more amplification in the upper flow
beginning this weekend and continuing into next week as a mean
trough is carved out over the northeast. The models spawn a
couple of surface lows, one Fri night into Sat and another one
Monday but differ on their tracks. Tuesday... A cold front with
limited moisture will move through the area. Temps are forecast
to warm into the 60s ahead of the front. Will continue slight
chance pops though precipitation amounts will be light.

Wednesday through Friday... High pressure will build over the
area from the north through the period producing cool dry
weather across eastern nc mid through late week. Highs Wed will
be in the 50s. A reinforcing dry cold front will move through
wed night into early Thursday and 850mb temps drop below zero
across the northern half of the area. Thanksgiving day looks
like the coldest day with highs only in the upper 40s to low
50s, coolest across the northern half of the forecast area,
combined with a brisk nne wind. A hard freeze inland will be
possible Thu night-early Fri morning. Highs Fri warm back into
the 50s. Could see a few coastal showers late in the day Fri as
the flow becomes easterly and moisture increases along the se
coast ahead of an approaching coastal warm front.

Saturday through Sunday... Still looking like eastern nc will be
mild both days with highs well into the 60s. A developing surface
low is forecast to impact the area Fri night into Sat but the
track is still uncertain with some models offshore and some
inland of the nc coast. Still looking like a period of heavy
rain and strong winds for the area, with any severe threat
dependent on the track of the system (an inland track would be
more favorable for severe weather). Based on trends in the
models and in collaboration with adjacent wfos have increased
pops to likely sat. Sunday looks much less favorable for
widespread significant rainfall and will only have a slight
chance pop.

Monday... The next surface low is forecast to impact the area
Monday but there are large model differences with the timing,
track and intensity of this system. For now will indicate chance
pops with highs again in the 60s.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1 am tue... Widespread ifr ceiling visibility conditions
will continue for the rest of the overnight at all 4 terminals.

Vfr conditions will develop quickly after sunrise, as a light
southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching cold front. MVFR
possible in scattered light showers along ahead of the front
through early afternoon before the front moves off the coast.

Winds will become light northwest and skies will become clear
throughout the region by late afternoon early evening as a dry
airmass builds in.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 310 pm mon...VFR conditions are expected into Fri with
high pressure over the area. SubVFR conditions are expected fri
night into Sat as a developing low moves across the area.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 1 am tue... No changes to zones. Light westerly winds will
allow fairly benign wind and sea conditions to continue
overnight. The primary concern is dense fog, especially for the
rivers and portions of the sounds within a couple of nautical
miles of shore. A dense fog advisory has been issued for the
albemarle sound and alligator river through sunrise as many area
observations have indicated visibilities of 1 nm or less in the
area. Trends will be monitored closely and additional marine
dense fog advisories may be needed.

A cold front will sweep through on Tuesday, with wsw winds inc
in the morning, becoming wnw by afternoon and inc to 10-15 kt.

Seas will be 2 to 4 ft through Tue morning, inc a bit to 3 to 5
ft by afternoon, highest outer SRN cntrl waters.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 310 pm mon... SCA conditions are likely Thursday and
Thursday night, with gusty N NE winds and elevated seas.

Although winds will diminish slightly to NE 15-20 kt fri,
elevated seas around 6 ft could linger through the day,
especially over the outer central waters. Then Fri night and
sat, strong winds and dangerous seas will be possible with the
potential for gale force winds Sat as developing low pressure
impacts the waters.

Nw winds 15-20 kt Tue night behind a cold front becomes n-nw
10-15 kt wed. 3-5 ft seas Tue night subside to 2-3 ft wed. A
dry cold front will move through the waters Wed night and early
Thursday with strong high pressure building in from the north.

Gusty N NE winds 20-25 kt will develop, allowing seas to build
to 4-8 ft Thu and Thu night. E NE flow 10-20 kt Friday,
strongest south of CAPE hatteras. Elevated seas 4-6 ft could
drop briefly below 6 ft Fri afternoon early evening, before
building back above 6 ft Fri night and sat.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz130-131.

Synopsis... Tl
near term... Hsa cb
short term... Tl
long term... Jme cqd
aviation... Hsa CB jme
marine... Hsa CB jme


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 7 mi34 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 54°F 61°F1016.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 15 mi82 min WSW 6 G 7 1016.5 hPa (-1.1)
41159 34 mi22 min 74°F3 ft
41064 34 mi74 min WNW 12 G 18 66°F 73°F1015.4 hPa
41063 46 mi82 min Calm G 0 75°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC8 mi84 minWSW 30.25 miFog54°F53°F97%1016.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi28 minSW 30.50 miFog52°F52°F100%1015.8 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi85 minWSW 42.50 miFog/Mist49°F48°F97%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE5NE6NE7NE8N6NE8NE6NE9NE7N8NW10N8N3N6NW4W4NW5W6W5W4SW3W4
1 day agoNE5NE6NE5N4NE3NE6NE7NE8NE7NE7NE6NE6NE7NE5NE4NE4N4CalmNE4N5NE4NE4NE3NE6
2 days agoNW5NW6NW7NW8N7N7N84N6N5NE8N8N9N9N4N4NE3NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:05 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:45 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.20.40.81.11.31.41.41.20.90.60.40.20.20.30.60.91.21.31.31.10.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina
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Fort Macon
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:19 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:18 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:22 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.32.12.83.43.63.42.92.11.40.70.40.50.91.62.32.93.23.22.721.20.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.