Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Casmalia, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:58PM Friday September 22, 2017 5:20 PM PDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 223 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Tonight..NW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 7 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 7 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 223 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z...or 1 pm pdt....A 1032 mb high pressure was centered 1000 nm west of san francisco, which will expand into oregon and nevada through early next week. Northwest flow will weaken through the weekend, but remain gusty through Saturday. Short period choppy seas will persist through at least Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casmalia, CA
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location: 34.7, -121.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 222352
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
452 pm pdt Fri sep 22 2017
updated aviation section

Synopsis
A low will bring cold air this week with breezy winds and major
temperature drops inland. Next week, a high, an offshore flow
should bring a significant warming trend into Friday.

Short term (tdy-mon)
lingering moist air under a weak inversion leading to some
stratocumulus development this afternoon but otherwise lots of
sunshine and slightly warmer temps. Low clouds will again struggle
to form overnight south of pt conception as the inversion remains
weak. However there's a better chance for solid marine lyr
formation north of pt conception where the inversion is stronger
and it's still quite moist in the boundary layer. Highs Saturday
will continue to trend warmer but still 4-8 degrees below normal.

The warming trend will continue through early next week as
offshore flow increases each day. The 12z NAM boosted forecast
offshore gradients by about 1mb from previous runs and upper
support is better too. Not surprisingly the GFS is weaker on both
accounts but either way most areas west and south of the mountains
should see a generous warm up Sunday and Monday with valleys
mostly in the 90s by Monday and coastal areas in the 80s. One
caveat to this is that the NAM is still showing some lingering
low lvl moisture under a much stronger inversion early Sunday so
there is the potential for some low clouds and dense fog across
coastal areas from ventura county south which could also impact
coastal temperatures. Depending on how strong the offshore flow
ends up being these clouds could possibly linger through the
afternoon and into Monday morning as well but that's always a
tricky forecast this far out.

Long term (tue-fri)
models in pretty good agreement now through at least next Friday
showing some additional upper level energy dropping south through
the great basin Tuesday into Wednesday reinforcing the northeast
flow aloft and likely being the period of strongest winds, though
it's still not looking advisory level at least based on the gfs
where 850 winds top out between 20-25kt. However, very often as
we get closer to an event models start to increase the gradients
and upper support so advisory level santa ana's are still
possible with the best chances across the la ventura valleys and
lower mountains. Temperatures Tue Wed will continue to warm up at
lower elevations with highs jumping into the lower 90s for some
inland coastal areas and high 90s for the warmer valleys.

After Wed models show gradients remaining offshore but weaker and
with less upper support. However, the air mass will be warming as
high pressure tries to move in from the west. There is some
disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF with regard to how quickly
the trough will shift east with the GFS a little faster and thus
warmer. But either way temps will remain 10-15 degrees above
normal through the week and likely continuing into next weekend.

Aviation 22 2330z.

At 23z at klax... There was no marine layer or inversion.

Good confidence in the current TAF suite through Saturday. About a
20 percent chance of sct-bkn lifr CIGS overnight near ksbp and
ksmx, but quickly skc by 14z as drier northerly flow shown on
model data. Patchy moisture could form over the la basin before
14z bringing sct-bkn MVFR CIGS to coastal sites.

Klax... High confidence inVFR conditions through 10z, then 20
percent chance of sct-bkn MVFR CIGS 12-19z. Low confidence of
this layer occurring, then back to high confidence for skc-sct050
after 19z. SE winds likely after 10z tonight, with a 20 percent
chance of exceeding 8kt.

Kbur... High confidence inVFR conditions through Saturday. Less
than 10 percent chance of sct 020-030 from 12-18z.

Marine 22 100 pm.

Confident that the gusty northwest winds that peaked last night
will slowly weaken and shrink in coverage through the weekend.

They should be strong enough to warrant a small craft advisory
(sca) for the outer waters tonight (especially between point
conception and san nicolas island)... With a 60 percent chance they
persist through Saturday night. Over the inner waters (sba
channel, santa monica basin, and immediate central coast), 60
percent chance of a low-end SCA through this evening, likely
staying under SCA after that. Short period choppy sea conditions
will persist everywhere through at least Saturday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm pdt this evening
for zones 645-650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Sunday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
it will be hot Monday through Thursday, especially away from the
coast. There will be gusty northeast winds at times, especially
across los angeles and ventura counties Monday and Tuesday. The
combination of heat, gusty winds and low relative humidity values
will bring heightened fire danger, especially to the mountains and
valleys.

Public... Mw
aviation... Boldt
marine... Kittell
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46259 19 mi59 min 64°F7 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 23 mi91 min WNW 14 G 16 61°F 61°F6 ft1011.8 hPa (-1.8)
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 32 mi51 min 60°F6 ft
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 36 mi81 min N 9.9 G 12 60°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.8)
HRVC1 36 mi51 min 60°F 1011.6 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 42 mi54 min 58°F5 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 43 mi51 min W 16 G 20 64°F 56°F1011.6 hPa
CPXC1 44 mi29 min WNW 15 G 18 65°F 1011.3 hPa46°F

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA39 mi26 minNW 1610.00 miA Few Clouds62°F53°F73%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from VBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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N13N12N7N12N13N14N12N11N4SE4E3E3NE3NE3N46NW8N7NW11NW12
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1 day agoNW10
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NW14N12N5N8N9N6N7NW7N7N6N3NW5NW4NW11NW15NW19
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2 days agoN17
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G21
NW14

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Point Arguello
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:40 AM PDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:56 AM PDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:16 PM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.33.62.61.71.21.11.52.33.24.14.854.74321.20.80.91.42.23.13.8

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project)
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:34 AM PDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:46 AM PDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 PM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:48 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.84.33.52.51.71.21.11.62.43.44.455.24.83.92.91.91.10.80.91.52.43.34

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.