Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaufort, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:52PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:16 PM EDT (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 2:01AMMoonset 4:26PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1018 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaufort, NC
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location: 34.72, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181417
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1017 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move into the area tonight and stall. This
front will move south of the area early next week. High pressure
builds back in by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the
area in the middle of next week, with unsettled weather
expected to continue.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1015 am Friday... One of the main focus for today will be
the heat and humidity. As of 8am, most of eastern nc was already
80 degrees with high dewpoints in the upper 70s, even 80-81
degree. With temperatures expected to reach in the low 90s
inland and dewpoint will remain close to want we are observing
now, the area will reach heat indices between 105-109 degrees.

Therefore, heat advisory will remain in effect through 6pm
today.

Latest mesoanalysis and 12z kmhx ua sounding is showing a very
unstable atmosphere with CAPE values already 4000-4500 j kg,
li -5 to -6 and pw at 2.29 inches. The mid-upper level trof is
forecasted to break down throughout the day, but the main
forcing will be the seabreeze to help develop showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Have made adjustments
to the pops as the latest hi-res models (hrrr & rap) have been
showing less coverage than what was previously forecasted.

Overall, expect convection to start as early as noon along the
seabreeze and then moving inland.

Prev dis... Some active convection offshore and skirting the
outer banks early this morning. Have added a small pop to
account for this morning activity. Otherwise, no major changes
to the forecast. A trough of low pressure coupled with a very
moist unstable environment today will lead to a good coverage of
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
hours. Model forecast surface-based CAPE values will be in the
3000-3500 j kg range during peak heating this afternoon coupled
with precipitable water values of 2.2-2.3 inches will trigger
thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours. A small
portion of our far NW CWA is in the marginal threat of severe
from SPC for today, but think strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible into the evening. With temperatures into the
low mid 90s inland and upper 80s coast coupled with dewpoints
well into the 70s, have opted to issue a heat advisory for all
but carteret county and the outer banks as heat index values may
reach 105 degrees for at least a few hours during the
afternoon, prior to the onset of convection.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
As of 310 am Friday... Expect ongoing convection at the beginning
of the period to wane with loss of heating during the late
evening hours. Some patchy late night stratus or fog will be
likely in areas that received rainfall. Yet another very warm
and muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
This weekend...

the trend toward a faster front with a drier second half of the
weekend continues. The best chance for storms this weekend will be
Saturday and with pwats still above 2", locally heavy rain is
possible. By Sunday much drier air moves into the northern 2 3 of
the area, with pwats here dropping under 1.5". Continued low chance
pops across the far south where a cold front should be moving
through with slightly higher moisture values.

Monday Tuesday... No big changes to this period of the forecast as a
cold front mentioned above washes out across our area. The biggest
impact from the front will be the much drier air, with pwats mainly
under 1.5" and even 1.0" Tuesday! Continued very low chance pops
over areas west of route 17 both afternoons but if model guidance
continues to suggest such a dry atmosphere these chances for storms
may be too high. With upper level heights above 591 dm, highs
inland will easily reach the lower 90s with mid 80s at the beaches.

Wednesday Thursday... The next front will move into nc Wednesday, and
our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. While not nearly as
moist as the past few days, moisture will increase ahead of the
front through the period. Will maintain the previous forecast of
rain chances close to 50% during this time with the passage of the
front. Temps near 90 Wednesday will slide back into the 80s Thursday
with the passage of the front. Even drier and cooler weather is
possible late next week weekend.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 12z Saturday ...

as of 655 am Friday... As of 1240 am Friday... Not much change
from previous thinking on aviation forecast. As expected,
patches of stratus and light fog at kpgv and kiso this morning
with some shallow fog at koaj. This stratus and fog should
dissipate by mid-morning with generallyVFR conditions expected.

A much more unstable atmosphere will lead to scattered to
numerous showers and tstms after 18z at or near all of the taf
sites. Some storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy
downpours into the evening hours before ending after 00z with
loss of heating. Some late night stratus and fog also possible
in areas that receive rainfall tonight with brief sub-vfr
conditions possible.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 330 am Friday... SubVFR conditions most likely Saturday and
Saturday night with the passage of a cold front, with showers and
thunderstorms likely most terminals. Beyond Saturday night, mainly
vfr weather expected through mid week.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 1015 am Friday... No change to forecast. Latest buoy obs
are showing SW 5-15 knots and seas around 2 ft. SW winds 10-15
knots today and seas will remain around 2 feet across the
coastal waters. Gradient will tighten ahead of a cold front
tonight as SW winds increase to 10-20 knots and seas inch up to
3-4 feet.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 330 am Friday... Quiet boating conditions continue on the
waters through early next week. Winds southwest 5 to 15 this
weekend with seas 2 to 4 feet. Behind a cold front winds shift into
the northeast over the northern waters Monday, with light southwest
winds over the rest of the waters. Through mid week winds back
toward the south and eventually southwest but remain 5 to 15 kts. We
capped seas at 2 to 3 feet with wave watch guidance running a bit
high with winds that light.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>094-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Ctc bm
short term... Ctc
long term... Eh
aviation... Ctc eh
marine... Ctc eh bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 0 mi47 min SSW 12 G 18 86°F 83°F1012.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 10 mi77 min SSW 15 G 17 85°F 1013.7 hPa (-0.7)
41159 38 mi34 min 84°F3 ft
41064 38 mi69 min SW 14 G 18 83°F 84°F1014.2 hPa
41063 39 mi77 min SW 14 G 18 85°F 1014.5 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC1 mi79 minSW 1410.00 miOvercast87°F82°F88%1013.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi23 minVar 30.50 miThunderstorm79°F75°F88%1013.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC20 mi80 minSW 1210.00 miThunderstorm82°F82°F100%1014.2 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC24 mi21 minN 03.00 miLight Rain0°F0°F%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S9S7S7S4S4SE6S7S7S7S8S10S9SW10SW9SW7SW9S10SW12SW14SW14SW14SW18
1 day agoS8SE13CalmE43E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmE3E4E5E4S5SE8SE8
2 days agoS8SW9SW10SW12SW10SW7SW11SW6SW7W4NW10N6N3CalmW5NW3NW5N9N6N8N8NW6NW7N5

Tide / Current Tables for Duke Marine Lab, Beaufort, North Carolina (sub)
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Duke Marine Lab
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Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.81.42.22.832.92.51.70.80.1-0.2-0.10.41.32.43.344.243.32.31.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.10.30.61.11.61.81.71.51.20.80.40.20.10.20.61.21.72.12.22.11.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.