Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaufort, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:11PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 1:04 AM EDT (05:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:33AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 959 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms late this evening, then showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A chance of tstms. Showers.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaufort, NC
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location: 34.72, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230218
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1018 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday as a cold front
stalls near the area and several low pressure areas move along
it. High pressure will build in from the west Friday and
Saturday.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
As of 1015 pm Monday... While convection has largely ended across
eastern nc, large area of mostly light rain continues to work
east into our far southwestern cwa. Most all of the short range
guidance indicates widespread showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms after 06z and especially toward the early morning
hours. Have updated the pops and have the highest values (high
likely to categorical) over the southern zones with high chance
over the northern areas where the precipitation will take longer
to overspread the area. No changes to the forecast overnight low
temperatures with mostly areas between 65 and 70 degrees.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday/
As of 245 pm mon... Cold front will continue to approach from the
west Tuesday, as a weak area of low pressure develops along the
front then lifts through the coastal plain, and off the va
coast by Tuesday evening. Numerous showers and storms expected
with precip coverage expected to be more widespread than
previous days. Will continue likely to categorical pops.

Widespread clouds and precip expected, which will limit overall
instability, but could still see an isolated strong storm
develop with increasing shear. Periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall likely, as pwat values increase to around 2". Low
level thickness values, s/sw winds and cloudy skies support
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/
As of 330 pm Monday... Latest models continue to indicate wet,
stormy period into Thursday, followed by much drier weather
toward the end of the week and weekend. Upper trough digging
from northern plains into SE us will lead to slow-moving frontal
boundary Tuesday night into Thursday. System will lift north and
east of area Thursday night with dry high pressure for Friday-
Saturday. Return of jet energy will bring return of convective
threat Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday night... Have leaned toward a 12z nam/ecmwf blend with a
secondary low moving along stalled frontal boundary SW to ne
across northern sections during the night. GFS shows a similar
short wave to these models but no surface reflection indicated.

Will carry likely pops all zones through the night with good
coverage of showers and scattered tstms with locally heavy rain
threat.

Wednesday... Models in general agreement with lull in activity
during the morning but kept pops 30-50% with frontal boundary
stalled across area. Short wave energy approaching again during
afternoon and increased pops to likely again for SW 2/3 of area.

Wednesday night... Another period of widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms expected with likely pops all zones.

Threat of strong to marginally severe storms will increase
slightly with bulk shear up to 50 kt but instability and cape
will be limited. QPF will indicate potential for another one-
half to one inch additional rainfall.

Thursday... Evolving upper low and associated trough will move
into area with dry slot likely spreading in from SW during the
day. Main activity will be along coast in morning and moving
offshore during afternoon, but at least chance pops for all
zones during the day.

Thursday night... Continued chance pops during evening with upper
trough moving across, then drying expected overnight with deep
west to NW flow developing.

Friday-Saturday... Ridging surface and aloft expected to produce
dry period. GFS does bring short wave energy back quickly
across northern sections Saturday afternoon but appears to be a
fast outlier at this time.

Sunday-Monday... Increased short wave energy with surface and
upper ridges moving offshore will result in return of at least
chance pops for convective development each day.

Tuesday night-Thursday period will see min temps 5-10 degrees
above normal while clouds and precip will keep MAX temps a few
degree below normal. Near normal for Friday-Saturday, then above
normal for Sunday-Monday.

Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/
Short term /through 00z Wednesday/...

as of 720 pm Monday...VFR conditions continue with generally mid
and high-level clouds blowing off of convection generally south
and east of the TAF sites. Scattered convection should become
more widespread toward morning and have indicate vcts with
lowering ceilings to MVFR after 09z or 10z and continuing
through the day on Tuesday with vsbys around 5 miles in showers.

Some patchy ifr conditions will possible once any heavier
showers and potential thunderstorms develop on Tuesday.

Long term /tue night through Saturday/...

as of 330 pm Monday... Sub-vfr likely in periods of heavier rain
and thunderstorms Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.

A return toVFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday
with drier weather building across the terminals.

Marine
Short term /through Tuesday/...

as of 1015 pm Monday... After a brief period of n/nne winds
behind line of convection earlier in the evening, winds are now
ssw/sw over the coastal waters and sounds at 10-15 knots with
occasional gusts approaching 20 knots. Seas remain at 3-4 feet
with 8/9 second wave period. No real changes needed to the
current marine forecast as SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt
by midday on Tuesday with seas building to 5-9 feet. SCA for
the pamlico sound and coastal waters starts around midday
Tuesday and will persist into weds for the pamlico sound and
northern waters and into late week elsewhere.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...

as of 330 pm Monday... Gusty winds will continue into Thursday
night while elevated seas will linger into Friday.

Low pressure moving along frontal boundary mainly inland of
waters will produce periods of SW 15-25 kt winds into Thursday.

There is some model differences on Wednesday with GFS indicating
wind shift and lighter winds for northern sections as front
stalls over central waters, while ECMWF and NAM keep front
stalled over northern sections with moderate SW flow for most of
waters. Have leaned toward ecmwf/nam with main result of
lingering elevated seas. Strongest winds likely Wednesday into
early Thursday with stronger low moving across to NW and could
see solid 20-25 kt over southern and central waters. Wind shift
to westerly behind front Thursday evening with speeds
diminishing into Friday night, followed by return to SW late
Saturday.

Nwps used for seas most of period. Heights 6-9 feet Tue night
will subside briefly to 5-7 ft wed, then build to 7-11 ft by thu
morning. Diminishing winds will allow seas to subside below 6 ft
Friday evening and to 2-3 ft Saturday.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for ncz103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Tuesday to 4 am edt Wednesday
for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 8 pm edt Friday for
amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 5 pm edt Friday for
amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Tuesday to noon edt Wednesday
for amz150.

Synopsis... Cqd
near term... Ctc
short term... Cqd
long term... Jbm
aviation... Ctc/jbm/cqd
marine... Ctc/jbm/cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 0 mi47 min W 2.9 G 7 74°F 75°F1014.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 10 mi65 min WSW 8.9 G 11 76°F 1015 hPa (-0.5)
41159 38 mi52 min 76°F3 ft
41064 38 mi57 min W 3.9 G 7.8 73°F 76°F1015.5 hPa
41063 39 mi65 min E 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC1 mi67 minWSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds74°F70°F88%1015.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi2.2 hrsW 610.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1015.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC20 mi68 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F66°F90%1015.9 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC24 mi69 minSW 310.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S9SW10SW10SW14SW15SW15
G20
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1 day agoNE10NE8NE9NE9NE4N5N7N10NE8NE10NE85N6N96NE7N11NE8NE7NE6NE33E5Calm
2 days agoSW9W7SW8W10W9W11W11W7SW10SW9SW11SW11SW11SW12SW11SW14SW12SW12NE8
G17
E5NE5NE7NE7N9

Tide / Current Tables for Duke Marine Lab, Beaufort, North Carolina (sub)
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Duke Marine Lab
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.100.51.32.22.93.23.12.61.70.8-0.1-0.5-0.40.21.12.23.33.94.13.831.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:57 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:40 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.30-00.20.61.21.71.91.81.61.20.70.30-0.10.10.61.21.82.22.32.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.