Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:37PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 12:52 AM EST (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:33PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 918 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
AMZ200 918 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will move north of the carolinas tonight, then offshore Tuesday. The next cold front is expected from the west on Thursday with small craft advisory conditions likely. High pressure should build in for next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 220235
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
935 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will crest over the middle atlantic states
through early tue, then drift offshore. A warm front will retreat
northward into central nc on wed, then likely stall as it encounters
in-situ cold air damming over the northwest piedmont. An upstream
cold front, and deepening low pressure in the immediate lee of the
southern and central appalachians, will cross central nc Wed night
into early thu.

Near term tonight
As of 925 pm Monday...

deep layer ridging, including 1034 mb arctic surface high pressure
centered over the SRN middle atlantic states, will prevail over cntl
nc tonight. IR satellite imagery, and upstream upr air data over the
oh and tn valleys, depict mid-high level moisture (above 500 mb)
that will stream across the ridging aloft and into nc overnight. The
satellite presentation suggests it will remain thin enough to not
impact surface temperatures and otherwise excellent radiational
cooling conditions of the aforementioned arctic surface ridge air
mass in place. That moisture should instead merely cause
precipitable water values to continue to rise to near a quarter inch
by 12z Tue at gso, after the second lowest reading ever recorded at
gso (since 1948) occurred this morning at 12z (0.04"), per the spc
sounding climatology page. ECMWF statistical guidance, which is
typically superior in cold radiational cooling regimes, suggests
lows will be centered in the 12 to 16 degree range tonight, with
isolated lows around 10 degrees at the typically colder sites in
cntl nc, including tonight at tdf, scr, ixa, and lhz.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
As of 315 pm Monday...

expect plentiful sunshine again tue, as pw values remain low with a
stable column. The mid level ridge axis will amplify further and
track ene and overhead through the day, while the surface ridge
continues to extend down through central nc as its center pushes
just off the mid atlantic coast. Expect little more than increasing
high clouds over the W late as upper level moisture attempts to ride
up the ridge. The air mass over nc will slowly modify but with the
cold start and thicknesses still well below normal, expect chilly
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Developing low level onshore flow on the SE side of the exiting
ridge, along with increasing 850 mb flow from the ssw between the
approaching trough and the strengthening anticyclone off the
southeast coast, will lead to a quick increase in clouds spreading
in from the S and w. The initially shallow moist upglide around 280k
will strengthen and deepen up through 300k, particularly over the
far W cwa, through the night. While the low level jetting will be
pronounced and quite warm, lingering cold dry surface air locked in
over the W piedmont will initially hold surface wet bulb temps below
freezing and result in a threat of patchy light freezing rain or
freezing drizzle mainly after midnight. Given the fairly shallow
moisture depth and limited areal extent of the moist upglide, any
icing should be very light. But any icing would be worthy of an
advisory, and this potential will be watched closely. Temps are
expected to bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s Tue night.

Increasing and deepening warm air advection should eventually help
dislodge the vulnerable cool stable air, although this process
should be delayed over much of the piedmont. Expect highs from
around 50 NW to around 60 in the triangle area and the low-mid 60s
across the southeast cwa, under mostly cloudy skies. Will retain a
small chance for light rain and showers, mainly over the W half, as
the moist upglide diminishes. Amounts will be light. -gih

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 240 pm Monday...

rain will continue into Wednesday night in conjunction with a
developing wave of low pressure over the carolinas along a cold
front that will push through the forecast area throughout the day on
Thursday. This looks to be a fairly heavy rain event with QPF totals
backing off slightly with this run of the models but still expecting
a storm total of over an inch in the NW piedmont with just under an
inch elsewhere. With warm air advection occurring along and in front
of the boundary, high temperatures Thursday will climb into the low
50s in the triad and as high as the mid 60s in southeastern
counties. Rain should end around 00z on Friday and cold air will
begin to filter in behind the front. Expect lows below freezing in
the northwestern portions of the area to just above in the southeast.

Dry conditions will prevail for much of the rest of the long term
forecast period as an upper trough axis moves through and helps
provide cold continental high pressure that will keep high
temperatures confined to the 40s for Friday and the weekend with a
few highs in the upper 30s along the va border counties. During the
overnight hours lows will plunge into upper teens to mid 20s on
Friday night which will be the coldest night with mid 20s to low 30s
Saturday and Sunday nights.

Will continue to watch model runs for early next week as much
uncertainty exists in regard to a coastal low that the ECMWF has
approaching the carolinas but a slow down in timing will keep any
precipitation threat away until at least Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 725 pm Monday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR will continue across central nc as a
modifying arctic surface high pressure builds over the area tonight,
before slowing shifting to the east of the area late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. This will result in dry andVFR
conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. Winds will generally be
light and variable to calm, with winds becoming south southeasterly
across western portions of the area by mid to late afternoon
(generally in the 5-7 kt range). Otherwise, skies will be mostly
clear mostly sunny with only some high thin cirrus expected.

Outlook: as the low level high pressure area moves offshore,
increasing moist flow from the SE will bring a risk of MVFR to ifr
cigs Tue night. Areas of very light rain or drizzle is expected late
tue night through wed, with sub-vfr conditions, and a few hours of
light freezing rain or freezing drizzle possible at int gso 09z-15z
wed morning. As a strong storm system and cold front approach late
wed, chances for rain and sub-vfr conditions increase, peaking wed
night through Thu morning, with strong shifting winds both at the
surface and aloft. Drier air will arrive with high pressure behind
the front, andVFR conditions are likely from late Thu through sat.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Bsd hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi82 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 27°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair23°F15°F72%1035.5 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair23°F16°F74%1035.5 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair21°F14°F74%1034.8 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair17°F10°F75%1037 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N8N11N8N13
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2 days agoSW3CalmCalmNE3CalmE3CalmE46E6E8SE7SE8S8SE6S9
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S10S10S11S9S10S10S12S6

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Tue -- 03:40 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:54 AM EST     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:08 PM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:34 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.611.31.31.10.70.2-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.20.51.11.51.61.61.20.70.2-0.3-0.6-0.6

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:38 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:58 AM EST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:06 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.10.50.811.10.90.60.2-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.40.81.21.31.210.60.2-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.