Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 4:04 PM   Moonset 4:07 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Through 7 am - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Today - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of rain with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 nm or less. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 foot at 5 seconds. Rain, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 6 seconds and S 1 foot at 6 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 312 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A front will drop into the area and stall through Sunday. High pressure builds in from the north Monday and Tuesday followed by another cold front Thursday.

FXUS62 KRAH 200724 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 323 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross the region early today, and then settle just to our south late today. A wave of low pressure will track along the front Sunday into Monday, bringing unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 222 AM Saturday...

Overcast with an isolated shower early today, then becoming partly sunny and mild.

A cold front over western NC will slowly move southeast through most of central NC this morning. The front is expected to stall to our SE tonight (along the SC coast). There were some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning associated with a weak low pressure and the cold front. Greensboro had nearly 0.25 of an inch of rain from a shower before 200 AM, and Rockingham and Laurinburg has a 200-300 AM thunderstorm.

This activity is expected to diminish as it moves across mainly the southern part of our region through sunrise. Low overcast conditions and patchy fog will be slow to leave this morning, but the pressure gradient and surface wind will pick up with the front today. Winds are expected to become N-NE at 10-15 mph this afternoon. Highs today will be mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s (N to S). Cloudiness will increase again tonight as the low level NE flow will be topped by the SW flow aloft. There is a chance of light rain late tonight in the southern Piedmont. Lows will turn much cooler with the NE flow. Expect lows in the 40s and lower 50s N to SE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 222 AM Saturday...

Light rain and turning much cooler Sunday with a chilly NE flow.

A wave of low pressure is expected to track along the stalled front over southern GA and coastal SC / SE NC Sunday, then move well offshore Sunday night. This occurs in response to the weak short wave trough that will move NE along the Gulf Coast states.
Isentropic lift is expected to develop SW to NE across the region Sunday. Light rain is expected to overspread the region Sunday morning, tapering off from the west during the late day and evening.
The rain is needed in central NC as many areas have had less than 50 percent of their historical normals for the first 3 weeks of April.
However, this will not be a major soaked as generally 0.25 is expected NW ranging to locally 0.50 in the south and east. The biggest news may be the expected cool down as temperatures Sunday will hold in the 50s for many areas.

Skies will slowly clear in the west Sunday night, but mostly cloudy skis should linger in the east. It will be chilly with lows in the upper 30s west and north ranging into the mid 40s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 AM Saturday...

A southern stream shortwave is forecast to move through the lower TN Valley early Mon morning and shift off the Carolina coast through the late evening hours. The character of this wave, according to majority of NWP guidance available, as it slides through the Carolinas is an elongated and positively tilted axis resulting in weaker forcing within an already dry post frontal airmass and barely even a wisp of cloud cover. The 18z GFS highlights an alternate scenario composed of a more compact shortwave and deep PV anomaly, resulting in stronger synoptic forcing for an area of blossoming mid/high clouds and perhaps even some light rain/sprinkles, mainly south of the US-64 corridor Mon afternoon into the evening.
Elongated surface high pressure shifts over the Southeast and just off the Northeast coast through Tues morning promoting calm, cool, and clear skies for nearly optimal radiational cooling. Trended temperatures down areawide and into the upper 30s in the typical cool spots although, statistical guidance suggest mid/low 30s (increasing the chances for frost) may be possible in theses areas and will depend on timing when surface conditions go calm and departure of retreating cloud cover.

Tuesday through Friday: A northern stream trough will dig through the northern Plains Tues and pivot across the Ohio Valley and Northern Mid-Atlantic Wed night with high amplitude ridging through late week. The northern stream wave will encourage a cP surface high dive south out of Ontario Canada and over the Great Lakes region and help push a cold front into the southern Mid-Atlantic through Thurs morning. Some weakening light rain/sprinkles may be possible as the shortwaves pivots across the Mid-Atlantic, however the better mid/upper forcing remains well displaced to the north of central NC.
The equatorward penetration of this dry cold frontal passage largely remains in question and will be responsible for the sensible weather and precipitation chances through the mid/late week. This results in two scenarios. First, and solution is the cold front loses steam stalls in the vicinity of the Carolinas and then waffles over central NC through late week providing a focus for diurnal showers Thurs/Fri. The second scenario is the cold front is able to push well south of central NC and remain on the cool and dry side of the boundary with near zero precipitation chances.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 136 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS will dominate this morning ahead of a cold frontal passage. Scattered showers/storms are possible, especially around KGSO and KFAY through 09z or 10z.
Otherwise, a return to VFR conditions are expected through the day with CIGS between 4-6k feet this afternoon.

Outlook: Expect mostly dry through Sat night. Light rain and associated sub-VFR restrictions will spread southwest to northeast across the area Sunday and into Sunday night as a wave of low pressure tracks along a slow moving cold front near the coast.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to return Mon through Tue.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
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Sat -- 01:35 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:47 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Sat -- 02:33 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:45 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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