Thursday, April27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:01PM Thursday April 27, 2017 3:15 AM EDT (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:37AMMoonset 8:30PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 954 Pm Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft...then 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft... Building to 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day...then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 954 Pm Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A summer-like pattern to develop into the weekend as high pressure becomes anchored offshore. A weakening cold front may bring a few showers late Thursday and Friday. A stronger frontal system will bring rain and rougher seas early next week. Gusts to 20 kt can be expected each afternoon inshore due to a strong sea breeze.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 270603
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
203 am edt Thu apr 27 2017

A cold front will approach the mountains from the west late this
afternoon and evening, then stall out and dissipate over the mid-
atlantic tonight. A moist southerly return flow on the western
periphery of a strengthening bermuda high will prevail Friday
through the weekend.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 910 pm edt Wednesday...

the skies had cleared across nc this evening. High pressure will be
overhead tonight with light winds. There may be a bit more patch fog
around sunrise that currently forecast due to the saturated ground
under clear skies and light winds. We may have to add some patchy
ground fog for later tonight, especially in the fog prone and soaked
valley areas near the lakes, rivers, and even smaller creeks. The
temperature / dew point spreads were already 5 degrees or less in
many areas. Lows should fall into the 60-65 range, except upper 50s
over the northern piedmont.

Short term /Thursday and Thursday night/
As of 335 pm edt Wednesday...

skies will be generally sunny for much of Thu morning, with the mid
level ridge axis sliding to our east, although high clouds will be
increasing as the weakening line of convection approaches from the
west, along with a weakening surface trough that brushes our W and n
sections late Thu through Thu night before lifting up into the mid
atlantic region. Warm and stable 850-600 mb air will inhibit
convection in our area through early afternoon, despite surface
dewpoints within a few degrees of 60, and this is further supported
by the latest hi-res wrf-arw/nmm runs which stay dry in our area
through 18z. By mid afternoon, however, a weakened version of the
convective line will be moving into the western cwa, accompanying a
30-40 kt 850 mb ssw jetlet, weaker than its previous state but still
enough to support low level mass convergence over central nc, mainly
from very late afternoon until shortly after midnight. Forecast
soundings show mostly elevated instability increasing by evening,
peaking in the 800-1200 j/kg range, and deep layer shear ranging
from around 40 kts west to around 20 kts east, with column
moistening as high pw values of 1.5-1.75" advect in from the sw.

Detrimental to maintenance of this convection will be the lack of
dynamic forcing for ascent, as any weak dpva will track well to our
nw, although models do indicate a pocket of enhanced upper
divergence tracking NE through the area Thu evening, which may
support greater storm coverage. For now, will hold onto low-end
likely pops west, with lower chances through the central CWA and
just small chances east, where deep layer shear and dynamic forcing
for lift will be weaker closer to the departing ridge. With
thicknesses higher than yesterday tempered by the increase in
clouds, expect highs from near 80 NW to the mid 80s se. Lows thu
night ranging from the low 60s NW to the upper 60s se. -gih

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/
As of 325 pm edt Wednesday...

a weak surface tough associated with dying overnight convection is
forecast to stall over the coastal plain and then retreat back to
the west on Friday as the subtropical ridge amplifies off the
southeast coast. The ridge, and associated rising thicknesses will
peak on Saturday (thicknesses of 1410-1420m), with highs accordingly
peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s, just short of record highs.

Convection each day should mainly be tied to the seabreeze and higher
terrain in southwesterly flow and no strong forcing. However, with
strong instability forecast, owing to a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates off the mexican plateau, there could be a large hail and
damaging wind threat, more so on Saturday when models suggest a
shallow tropopause disturbance/jet moving lifting through the deep
south that could aid in triggering storms. Confidence in this
feature and whether or not storms will be able to develop is still
low at this point.

The ridge will hold on Sunday and then give a little to a strong
upper low forecast to lift from the southern plains to the great
lake by Monday. Pops will increase on Monday as the associated cold
front advances east across the mountains. Shear looks favorable for
severe weather, but instability is questionable on Monday. Temps
will accordingly be knocked back toward normal for the middle of
next week.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
As of 145 am edt Thursday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR conditions associated with a dry/capped
airmass will prevail through mid to late afternoon. Scattered
convection (remnants of a squall line expected to cross the
mountains this afternoon) will be possible 20-00z at int/gso
terminals and 00-04z at eastern terminals, with the relative best
chance at int/gso terminals given an increasingly dry/hostile
airmass with eastern extent. Sw/wsw wind gusts as high as 20g35kt
will be possible in assoc/w any convection. Otherwise, calm or light
ssw winds early this morning will increase to 10-15 knots a few
hours after sunrise, with gusts as high as 20-25 knots this
afternoon (after ~15z), highest at the int/gso terminals.

Outlook: thoughVFR conditions will prevail through the majority of
the upcoming weekend, adverse aviation conditions are periodically
expected. Examples include ifr/lifr ceilings expected to develop
each morning sat/sun/mon between 08-12z, lifting/scattering out to
vfr by 12-15z. Additionally, isolated to scattered afternoon/evening
(21-03z) convection will be possible fri/sat. Should convection
develop and/or propagate into the region fri/sat, environmental
conditions would strongly support severe weather. Otherwise, expect
the best overall potential for convection Monday evening/night in
assoc/w a cold front /squall line/ progged to track eastward through
the carolinas. -vincent

Rah watches/warnings/advisories

Synopsis... Vincent
near term... Badgett
short term... Hartfield
long term... Smith
aviation... Vincent

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi46 min 1011.1 hPa
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 63°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi24 minSSW 610.00 miFair64°F60°F87%1011.2 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi22 minSSW 410.00 miFair63°F60°F90%1011.3 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi23 minSSW 810.00 miFair67°F59°F76%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW9W9W9SW8SW9SW9SW6S6S6S7S7S7SW11SW8SW6
1 day agoW3NW3CalmN3NW3NW4NW6N7NW8CalmNW6NW5W4W7W6W7W5NW3W4W4NW4NW5NW3NW5
2 days agoNE8NE9N7NE10NE14NE10NE13NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:49 AM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:58 PM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 05:09 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:53 AM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.