Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:29 AM EDT (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 527 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain or drizzle early this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 527 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move north of the waters this morning while a cold front moves across the waters tonight. A weak front will move across the waters Friday night. High pressure will ridge in from the northwest Saturday, and move overhead during Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 211101
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
700 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northward over eastern north carolina
through this morning, into eastern virginia this afternoon, then
rapidly strengthen as it moves up the eastern seaboard this evening
through tonight. A cold front will push through the region early
Friday morning. High pressure will build over the region for the
weekend.

Near term today through tonight
As of 325 am Thursday...

volatile weather is expected today within an energetic but
transitory pattern. Surface low pressure now located just S of ilm
has a warm front extending to its ne, having passed W of most nc
coastal observation sites (ese winds at ilm ewn hse mqi, among
others). This low, strongly evident up through 850 mb, will continue
its northward drift this morning through early afternoon, in
response to the larger steering pattern featuring a potent mid level
shortwave trough crossing N al N ga early this morning and a deep
mid level low dropping S over E lake michigan into N in. (these two
mid level features, as well as the coastal surface low, are easy to
pick out as distinct swirls on GOES satellite imagery.) as the
surface low continues its northward push over E nc this morning,
with the coastal warm front pivoting westward into the NE cwa, the
onshore-directed southeasterly moisture stream (sort of a mini
atmospheric river) will translate slowly n. High rain chances early
this morning over much of the area will gradually taper down, first
in the SE CWA (within the mid level dry punch) and exiting last over
far NW and N sections (due to longer-duration wraparound precip) in
the early afternoon as the low moves over E va, propelled by the n
al N ga mid level wave as it swings N over nc while weakening. By
that time, though, the strong vorticity lobe rotating down the w
side of the in ky low later today will bring renewed forcing for
ascent over the carolinas from mid-late afternoon through this
evening. Any brief respite in the clouds and precip (se sections
should see a longer duration of dry weather partial clearing than n
and NW sections) will start to fill back in from the W with the
arrival of mid level dpva and 110+ m height falls ahead of an
approaching surface cold front. A low-pw band over the nc mountains
early this morning will be supplanted by pw just above normal, and
the cooling mid levels combined with somewhat mild low level air
ahead of the cold front will mean a period of 7+ c km layer lapse
rates and perhaps a few hundred j kg of surface cape. Will bring in
an area of scattered showers, crossing central nc from late
afternoon through the evening. Deep layer bulk shear will be
marginal, just 25-30 kts, but the potential for the high values of
low and mid level lapse rates to line up and the added dynamic lift
necessitates including isolated thunder late this afternoon through
early evening. Any convection is likely to shift e, with a deepening
westerly low level flow helping to scour out low level moisture, as
the mid levels dry out with the mid level shortwave trough passage.

Skies should clear west to east late tonight. Expect highs today
from the mid 50s NE to the lower 60s in the far s. Lows tonight in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. -gih

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 340 am Thursday...

the mid level shortwave trough will be shifting off the carolina
coast early fri, dampening in the process as a deepening polar low
drops from SE ontario to over the northeast new england through fri
and to the canadian maritimes Fri night. The corresponding
strengthening surface low near the northeast coast and resulting
tight mslp gradient and lowering tropopause will translate to deep
mixing and blustery surface winds, sustained in the 15-25 mph range
with periodic 25-35 mph gusts possible. Will monitor upcoming model
runs to determine if a wind advisory is needed. Otherwise, expect
fair to partly cloudy skies (more Sun sw, less ne) and dry weather,
although a few sprinkles are possible near the va border with
heating in the afternoon given the cold mid level pocket just to our
ne. We should see below-normal highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
and lows in the mid-upper 30s Fri night under clear skies and with
diminishing winds. -gih

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 330 am Thursday...

the long term is centered around a low pressure system that is
forecasted to drag a cold front across central nc by late Monday
night or Tuesday morning. This system is book ended by two periods
of relatively quiet weather. The first will be over the weekend as
both days look dry with Saturday cooler than Sunday as high pressure
over the ohio valley on Saturday migrates southeastward over the
state and out to sea by Sunday. This yields temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s Saturday and low to upper 60s Sunday. While
Saturday night is expected to have lows near freezing, Sunday nights
lows will moderate into the mid 40s. With our frost freeze program
starting up for the spring on Thursday, a frost advisory could be
needed for Saturday night.

The low pressure system expected to move across the area Monday, is
of pacific origin and is still completely offshore of the west coast
at this time. Models have lacked consistency at this point but the
system will soon be sampled much better after it moves over land.

The latest run of the ECMWF has fallen remarkably in line with the
gfs which has been deemed an outlier up to this point. This is a
faster solution that has a cold front crossing the area late Monday
and moving east of the CWA by early Tuesday morning. The ec cmc
ensemble solutions drag the precipitation out further through Tuesday
and into early Wednesday morning. Due to the uncertainty have gone
with a blend to this point where higher pops are in place through
Monday and diminishing through Tuesday. Highs Monday very warm ahead
of the front, upper 60s to mid 70s but falling off again by Tuesday
to the low 50s to low 60s.

High pressure returns for midweek with a surface high crossing the
mid-atlantic and out to sea. At 1037 mb this feature is strong
enough to present some cold air damming if the wedge remains
pronounced but will depend on exact location. Highs Wednesday in the
mid to upper 50s.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 700 am Thursday...

poor aviation conditions -- mainly ifr lifr except MVFR ifr west --
will dominate central nc terminals through daybreak, as low pressure
near ilm tracks northward over E nc. The widespread rain over the
area will slowly shift northward, focusing E and N of the low track,
tapering off first at fay. Improvement toVFR is expected at int gso
this morning, with MVFR conditions dominant at rdu fay and mostly
ifr at rwi as the low moves slowly N over NE nc with a very gradual
s to N tapering down of rain toward lunchtime and perhaps brief
partial sunshine. While the low will move into va in the early
afternoon, a strong upper disturbance moving in from the W will
bring scattered showers tracking W to E over central nc from mid
afternoon through the evening. An isolated storm or two is also
possible. CIGS vsbys will be mostlyVFR, but brief MVFR conditions
can't be ruled out. The showers will be shifting into the coastal
plain after nightfall this evening, with drying and clearing
conditions at gso int toward the end of the TAF valid period as a
cold front moves in from the w. CIGS vsbys should beVFR at all
sites near or soon after 06z, as the cold front sweeps through.

Looking beyond 12z fri,VFR conditions should rule. Of concern,
however, will be strong low level winds from the W and wnw fri,
sustained up to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts, peaking from
late morning through the afternoon fri. These winds will diminish
fri evening.VFR conditions will dominate through Sun as high
pressure builds in, although a few showers with possible MVFR
conditions are possible Sun night Mon as the next storm system moves
in from the w. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi60 min NW 8 G 13 47°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi38 minWNW 64.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1011.5 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi37 minNW 77.00 miOvercast47°F45°F93%1009.7 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi94 minNNW 63.00 miRain Fog/Mist44°F43°F98%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE8NE12NE12N7N12
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NE7NE9NE8NE10E8NE6NE5N5NE5N5N6NE6NE7NE8NE10NE10NE11
2 days agoCalmNW5SW3SW7W55W9W7
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N8N8N10NE10NE11NE9NE8NE5NE8NE6NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:28 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:46 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.511.41.61.51.10.60-0.5-0.8-0.7-0.30.20.81.31.51.51.30.80.3-0.2-0.6-0.7

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Thu -- 05:04 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:26 AM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:26 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:50 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-00.40.81.11.31.20.90.50-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.30.20.711.21.210.70.3-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.