Wednesday, June20, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:35PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 3:12 PM EDT (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 12:29AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1153 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft every 5 to 6 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 kt or less, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1153 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The bermuda high will linger off the coast through the week. A cold front will move into the area from the north late Thursday and stall. The front will lift north as a warm front Friday with bermuda high returning for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 201829
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
230 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

A ridge of high pressure over the southeastern united states will
shift south but largely persist through the work week. A weak cold
front will drift int the region on Wednesday and linger through
Thursday before lifting north late Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1030 am Wednesday...

Heat advisory remains in effect from 11 am to 8 pm Wednesday for
the sandhills, the southern coastal plain and the eastern

morning stratus across the northeast from convective outflow last
evening suppressed the early morning diurnal temp rise a few
degrees. This outflow migrating south could initiate convection a
little earlier this afternoon across the east and especially in the
southeast where instability will be maximized. Otherwise, ongoing
forecast for convective activity courtesy of the short wave moving
across the mountains is on track for early afternoon as are highs in
the mid 90s with associated triple digit heat indices.

Previous discussion: low-level thicknesses and h8 temps begin to
wane today in response to the southward suppression of the the
mid upper level ridge into the deep south eastern gom. Thus, highs
today should average a good 2 to 3 degrees cooler than yesterday,
ranging from near 90 NE to to mid 90s south. When combined with
lower to mid 70 degree dewpoints heat indices will approach heat
advisory criteria(105 degrees) again across the eastern piedmont,
sandhills and southern and central coastal plain counties.

Another benefit of the abating ridge will be increasing scattered
convective rain chances, as the quasi-zonal flow aloft will
allow the passage of the low-amplitude shortwave disturbance,
currently across western tn, to track east through the mid-atlantic
states during the late afternoon through late evening.

Enhanced 0-6km shear of 20-30 kts across southern va northern nc
could result in some weak organization in the form of some
multicells and clusters and the risk of a few strong to severe
storms across the northeastern counties.

Muggy overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Short term Thursday and Thursday night
As of 410 am Wednesday...

in advance of the closed upper low digging southeast into the
mid ms valley, the flat upper ridge extending north over the SE us
will shift offshore late in the day.

Individual shortwave disturbances(likely to be convectively
enhanced) ejecting ene ahead of the upper low along the leading
eastern fringes of the broad cyclonic flow, will interact with the
back-door cold front forecast to sag south into the area late
Thursday evening night. This will result in more robust rain chances
late Thursday afternoon evening and into the overnight hours,
especially across the northern portions of the forecast area, where
models hint at the potential stall out of the boundary. Deep layer
shear of 25-30kts could support a few strong to severe multicells or
convective clusters, that should weaken in intensity as night falls
and bl cools and stabilizes. However, with the front potentially
bisecting the area, rain chances will persist through-out the night.

Highs Thursday ranging from upper 80s near 90 north to mid
90s south. Heat indices of 100 to 105 should remain confined
across the far southern zones on Thursday. Overnight lows
in the 70s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 230 pm Wednesday...

a frontal boundary will be lifting north out of the area early
Friday as a closed low over the ohio valley edges slowly east before
lifting northeast into the great lakes Friday night. Showers and
storms should be ongoing at the onset of the extended period, with
likely chances on Friday on Friday, especially across the north
nearer the frontal zone. Highs will vary from the mid 80s across the
northern tier counties to the lower 90s in the south.

Storm chances will decrease on Saturday and Sunday with weak forcing
in a warm advection regime as a westerly-flow induced lee trof sets
up over the area through the weekend. Highs will be in the low to
mid 90s with climatological 30-ish pops tied to the diurnal cycle.

A front will be approaching on Monday, increasing the chance of
convection Monday afternoon into Monday night as highs again reach
low and mid 90s. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind
this front, and the coolness looks to linger into Wednesday to keep
highs nearer normal, mostly upper 80s with small chances of diurnal

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 723 am Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected this afternoon and evening, with the best chance across the
eastern TAF sites (krdu krwi kfay) through 00z Thursday. Again, sub
vfr conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest
storms. A period of sub-vfr ceilings and or fog is possible across
the northern coastal plain during the pre-dawn hours Thursday
morning, however confidence is too low to include at this time.

Outlook: the chances of adverse aviation conditions with scattered,
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will increase
late week through the weekend as a cold front approaches and then
lingers near or just north of the region.

Max temperature and high-minimum temperature records...

rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 20 100 1924 75 2009
06 21 100 1933 75 1924
06 22 100 1914 75 1981
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 20 102 1887 77 1924
06 21 101 1933 75 1933
06 22 100 1981 78 1933
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 20 102 1970 77 2009
06 21 105 1933 84 1928
06 22 101 1990 84 1928

Rah watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Wednesday for ncz041>043-

Synopsis... Blaes
near term... Mlm cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Mlm
aviation... Cbl blaes
climate... Kcp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi42 min 1014.1 hPa
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi42 min Calm G 11 86°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi20 minSW 810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity78°F73°F85%1011 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi18 minW 14 G 25 miThunderstorm in Vicinity0°F0°F%1010.8 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi16 minN 410.00 miA Few Clouds94°F70°F47%1011.2 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi19 minSSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy92°F71°F51%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
Last 24hr6W5W5SW8SW8SW6SW4W4SW5W5SW3SW5W5W3NW3W4Calm3N435CalmCalmSW8
1 day agoNW20
2 days agoS6W9

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Wed -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:22 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:26 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:58 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Wed -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:25 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:24 AM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:13 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.