Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:00PM Thursday April 26, 2018 9:33 AM EDT (13:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 3:49AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 321 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Today..N winds 10 kt or less, becoming se late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 321 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak cold fronts will move across the waters this morning. The front will stall and then return northwest later this afternoon. Another cold front will cross the waters on Friday with another front expected Sunday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 261057
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
657 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

A warm front will retreat northward across the central carolinas
through this evening, immediately preceding an area of low pressure
that will track across the carolinas and into southern va tonight. A
trailing trough will linger over the southeastern u.S. Friday and
Friday night.

Near term through tonight
As of 355 am Thursday...

shortwave ridging over the tn valley and SRN appalachians this
morning will expand newd across the cntl appalachians and carolinas
through early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a potent mid-upr level low
this morning will continue to amplify across the lwr ms valley early
today, to nwrn al by 18z, before deamplifying newd across the srn
and cntl appalachians tonight, in response to an upstream "kicker"
trough amplifying from the cntl rockies to the SRN plains lwr ms
valley. Focused forcing for ascent and CAA aloft will accompany the
deamplifying wave, though with a weakening wind field as it
deamplifies and devolves into an open wave over the virginias by 12z

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was analyzed at 08z from s-
cntl sc wwd across n-cntl ga al, to a 1009 mb low over e-cntl ms. A
trailing cold front was analyzed swwd from the low, across cntl la
and the WRN gulf of mexico. The ERN portion of the stationary front
is forecast to retreat nwwd across the cntl carolinas this
afternoon. The models indicate a weak frontal wave will develop
along the retreating boundary, while the parent wave now over e-cntl
ms tracks enewd into the SRN appalachians by 00z fri. These lows are
forecast to then track newd, in the lee of the appalachians across
the carolinas tonight.

Broken to overcast altocumulus over n-cntl sc and SRN nc this
morning, related to convergence within a trough and weak frontal
zone at 850 mb, is forecast to expand newd into cntl nc in a
developing WAA regime in that layer, through midday. While no rain
is expected to accompany this cloudiness, the retreat of the
aforementioned warm front moistening weak destabilization may result
in widely scattered showers over the SRN half of cntl nc, roughly
south of highway 64, this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to
range from around 70 over the NRN piedmont to mid to perhaps upr 70s
over the sandhills and SRN coastal plain - a slightly larger than
average range given the presence of the frontal zone.

Tonight: the probability of rain will rapidly increase across the
srn and WRN piedmont after sunset, as the aforementioned lead
frontal wave lifts newd from sc. Weak instability may support a few
rumbles of thunder during the evening there, though with most of
that rain likely to hold west of highway 1. A secondary band of
convection will then likely accompany the parent wave of low
pressure, beneath the focused forcing for ascent accompanying the
upr wave, as they track across the remainder of cntl nc after
midnight. Focused forcing for ascent and cooling temperatures aloft
accompanying the upr wave may provide for a better chance of thunder
embedded within that convective band, including some surface-based
owing to theta-e advection mixing and resultant moist neutral low
level thermal profiles per bufr forecast soundings. Strong wind
gusts may accompany the convective band, but a lack of more
appreciable boundary layer moisture (ie. Surface dewpoints only in
the mid-upr 50s), and the aforementioned weakening of the
height wind fields aloft --and bulk shear values to around 35-45 kt--
as the upr wave deamplifies, suggests any severe threat will be low.

Lows in the 50s.

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 350 am Thursday...

the deamplifying short wave lifts north, with its associated surface
low passing across the DELMARVA peninsula early Friday afternoon. A
few lingering showers will be possible in the morning, with shower
coverage increasing along with a chance for a few thunderstorms in
the northeast during the afternoon as a weakening cold front edges
slowly east across the area. Some Sun ahead of the front will allow
highs to reach the low to mid 70s. Cool air advection will be weak
behind the front with predominantly westerly flow and scattered
cloudiness overnight. Mins will range from around 50 northwest to
mid 50s in the southeast.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 350 am Thursday...

a reinforcing dry cold front will move across the area Saturday
night. This front will precede the passage of a long wave mid level
trof which will slowly edge east, its axis passing across the area
Sunday night. So, despite dry conditions with plentiful sunshine
this weekend, temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal
through Monday, with highs mostly 70 to 75 each day after morning
mins mostly in the mid and upper 40s.

High pressure building in early next week will allow for the airmass
to begin warming concurrent with height rises behind the upper trof
passage. Conditions will be dry with mostly clear skies to accompany
a warming trend Tuesday through late week. Highs Tuesday will edge
into the mid and upper 70s, warming to the low and mid 80s on
Thursday. Morning mins will follow a similar trend, from around 50
Thursday morning to the upper 50s Thursday morning.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
As of 655 am Thursday...

vfr conditions are expected through mid-afternoon, before a warm
front and accompanying chance of mainlyVFR showers retreat nwd into
cntl nc between 21-00z. A strong upper level trough and related low
pressure system will then track newd across w-cntl nc tonight. A
band or two of heavy showers and a few storms ---and ifr-MVFR
conditions-- will accompany the passing low pressure, with the
greatest concentration and duration at piedmont sites (int gso rdu).

Outlook: a widely scattered shower will be possible Fri afternoon.

Otherwise,VFR conditions are anticipated through early next week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Mlm
long term... Mlm
aviation... Mws

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi46 min 1014.6 hPa
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi64 min NNE 2.9 G 6 64°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi42 minNE 510.00 miOvercast61°F54°F78%1011.9 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi40 minNE 410.00 miOvercast62°F54°F75%1011.6 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi98 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1012.9 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi41 minNE 310.00 miOvercast60°F54°F80%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW14
1 day agoE9E10E10SE7SE74NE7NE5SE9SE9SE10SE7S7S7S6CalmCalmSW4SW6SW6SW6SW7W11W8
2 days agoE7E6E7E12E13E16

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 12:49 AM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:35 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:04 PM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:39 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.