Thursday, April27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:34PM Thursday April 27, 2017 9:27 PM CDT (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:12AMMoonset 9:06PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, AL
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location: 34.83, -87.67     debug

Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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Fxus64 khun 280008
area forecast discussion
national weather service huntsville al
708 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017

For 00z tafs.

Near term (tonight)
issued at 315 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017
clouds have held together across our western counties, keeping
temperatures in these areas in the mid to upper 60s. Elsewhere,
mostly clear skies have allowed ample sunshine to warm temperatures
into the lower 70s. Latest visible satellite imagery shows that the
clouds over the west are beginning to erode. This matches fairly well
with short term guidance, which suggests that the area will become
mostly clear by sunset. High pressure quickly moves east across the
area behind a departing cold front, while the subtropical ridge
begins to build north and into the southeastern conus. With the clear
skies and winds becoming light, temperatures will fall into the mid
50s overnight.

Short term (Friday through Saturday night)
issued at 315 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017
the cold front that moved through during the day Thursday will stall
along the gulf coast early Friday morning. Guidance has been very
consistent and lifting this front northward and through the tn
valley by the late morning hours. As this front lifts northward,
winds will become southerly and moisture will quickly advect into
the area. As temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s, and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s advect into the area, instability
will rapidly increase. This will provide the chance for diurnally
drive convection to develop. However, coverage is expected to be
fairly low, given the potential for a strong capping inversion around
850 mb as the subtropical ridge continues to build across the area.

More widespread convection is expected to the north of the area,
where the warm front will stall. Any outflow boundaries from these
storms will provide a focus for convection. If any storms are able to
overcome the cap (or if the cap is weaker than forecast), there will
be more than enough instability to sustain updrafts and an isolated
strong storm is possible. Impacts from stronger storms would be from
gusty winds and small hail.

Storms will diminish quickly after sunset, with the loss of daytime
heating. Strong southerly flow will continue through early Saturday
morning and the ridge will continue to build across the area.

Temperatures are not expected to cool too much, with overnight lows
in the mid to upper 60s.

Meanwhile, an upper low will begin to dig from the four corners region
early on Saturday and shift to the east. The upper ridge over the
area will begin to break down and shift eastward. Southerly flow will
continue the steady stream of moisture into the area.Thus, once
again, diurnally driven convection will be possible. Given the
weaknesses in the ridge, storms may develop a little bit easier on
Saturday, however the coverage still appears to be low. As always,
any outflow boundaries that develop will increase the coverage.

Similar to Friday, there may be an isolated storm that becomes
strong, with gusty winds and small hail possible.

Activity will diminish again around sunset as the instability
quickly diminishes. The aforementioned upper trough will eject into
the central plains overnight Saturday, with a cold front trailing
south of the parent low through tx. With increased moisture and
increasing clouds, temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s.

Long term (Sunday through Wednesday)
issued at 315 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017
all of the latest guidance continues to suggest a strong subtropical
high building off the southeastern us coast Saturday into Sunday.

Model guidance continues to develop a pre-frontal trough axis over
eastern arkansas/western mississippi ahead of the approaching surface
low over missouri Sunday morning. However, they continue to only
edge this boundary slowly east on Sunday morning. This is mainly due
to the almost due southerly flow paralleling the boundary. It does
edge east, but only reaches central or eastern mississippi by the
mid- late afternoon hours in most guidance, except the nam12. This is
mainly due to effects of the subtropical high mentioned earlier in
place off the southeastern coast. At this point the more concentrated
area of deep and organized convective development ahead of this
afore- mentioned boundary reaches our westernmost counties between 4
and 7 pm. Before then activity should be isolated to very scattered
in nature and mainly near the al/ms border. In the morning bulk shear
is only ~ 30 knots. However, after 1 pm, models quickly ramp up
shear to between 40 and 50 knots. This combination of shear,
approaching forcing, and instability (1000-1500 j/kg) is enough for
strong to severe thunderstorm development. All modes of severe
weather still look like a good possibility. Since new guidance has
shifted timing a bit later (mainly evening into the overnight period
for the more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms), this
could lead to less instability to work with (around 1000 j/kg), but
still more than enough for all modes of severe weather to develop. If
this delaying trend continues with new models, tornado threat may
become more marginal. The main timeframe for the onset of severe
weather west of i-65 looks afternoon and evening at this time. For
the eastern portions of the area it is more Sunday evening/night.

Strong winds at 925 mb and mixing ahead of the front will produce
windy conditions with sustained winds between 15 and 20 mph with
gusts to around 30 mph outside of thunderstorms. Either way, with
pwats climbing to around 1.8 inches and good forcing ahead of the
front as it merges with the pre-frontal trough axis late on Sunday,
heavy rainfall between 1 and 2 inches looks likely Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night. This shouldn't cause to many flash flooding
issues, but if this increases to more widespread amounts between 2
and 3 inches, some flash flooding might be possible.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will continue after 4 am, but
not sure how much instability will be available then. Lingering
shower will be possible on Monday. This along with cold air
advection and cloud cover will keep highs in the upper 60s to lower

A warming trend (upper 70s for highs) and increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms are expected the remainder of the

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 708 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017
vfr conditions will exist at hsv/msl this evening with few ci and
lgt/vrbl winds. A sct layer of altocumulus should develop shortly
after midnight coincident with onset of esely flow at the sfc. If
winds remain sufficiently light, the mid-lvl clouds should do little
to inhibit the formation of patchy ground fog based on degree of soil
moisture from recent rainfall. Thus, a tempo for 5sm/br has been
included at both airports btwn 28/08-12z. A strong warm front will
lift nwd across the region btwn 10-14z, with winds expected to
increase to 10g18 kts from the sse by 13z. Fog concerns will diminish
at this point, but a bkn MVFR stratus deck will surge nwd following
fropa and is not expected to lift/scatter until 18-19z. A few lgt
shra will also be psbl in immediate wake of the warm front btwn
12-18z, but expected coverage is too low to include in TAF attm.

Hun watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Tn... None.

Near term... 73
short term... 73
long term... 73
aviation... 70/dd
for more information please visit our website
at weather.Gov/huntsville.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muscle Shoals, North West Alabama Regional Airport, AL6 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair60°F54°F80%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from MSL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS11S16
1 day agoSE6S4S5S3SE3E4S3SW5S5SE4S6S6SE8S10S12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmNE53NW4S8S6S6S5S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Huntsville, AL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Alabama
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.