Sunday, October22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:07PM Sunday October 22, 2017 5:39 PM CDT (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:32AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, AL
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location: 34.83, -87.67     debug

Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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Fxus64 khun 221922
area forecast discussion
national weather service huntsville al
222 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Near term (tonight)
issued at 222 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017
showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop across the area
so far this afternoon. This is due in part to the better forcing
still to our west, and showers storms to the south intercepting some
of the moisture. Area radars show isolated to scattered light rain
beginning to develop across northeast mississippi, moving to the
northeast. However, much of this is not reaching the ground due to
the drier air through the vertical column. With that said, moisture
is still expected to increase through the afternoon, with coverage
increasing across northwest alabama within the next few hours.

The main cold front remains just west of the mississippi river and
will continue to inch closer to the tn valley during the overnight
hours. Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the plains will
deepen and quickly move eastward tonight, swinging into the
mississippi valley by early Monday morning. The low level jet will
increase during the early evening hours and move to the northeast
through the overnight period. The forcing associated with the
approaching trough and jet, along with a vast increase in moisture,
will increase the coverage of showers generally after 00z, with
numerous to widespread moderate rain expected across the area. Still
not looking at much coverage of thunderstorms given the meager
instability diminishing after sunset, but an isolated thunderstorm
is possible owing to the strong forcing. Heavy rainfall embedded in
the more widespread activity is possible late this evening,
especially across northeast alabama. Storm total rainfall amounts
will generally be between 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. Although this could pose a localized flash flooding
threat, especially with any training cells, the area remains fairly
dry and should be able to handle that much rainfall.

The front will reach NW alabama around midnight and then slowly move
eastward during the predawn hours. The front will likely reach i65
by the end of the near term period, with the widespread precip
continuing across northeast alabama.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday night)
issued at 222 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017
the axis of the upper trough will move into northwest alabama Monday
morning, with the surface cold front over northeast alabama.

Lingering showers will begin to taper off by the late morning hours,
with much of the precip expected to be out of the area by the
afternoon. There is still some uncertainty with the timing of the
front. Additionally, wrap around moisture associated with the upper
low will move through the area during the day, so kept in isolated
to scattered light rain into the afternoon hours. Lingering cloud
cover, along with the lowering heights will keep temperatures on
Monday in the mid to upper 60s.

Dry air will quickly filter into the area Monday night, with
dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 40s. Skies will also clear
through the overnight hours and combine with light winds to create
good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will drop into
the mid to upper 40s, which is roughly 10 to 15 degrees cooler than
those expected tonight. A reinforcing front is also expected to move
through late Monday night early Tuesday morning as a second upper
trough digs southward and through the area. This will send even
cooler and drier air into the area, with strong cold air advection
during the day Tuesday keeping high temps in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite plenty of sunshine. Another good radiational cooling
night on Tuesday will send temperatures down into the upper 30s.

Will have to watch for the potential frost development across
portions of the area early Wednesday morning.

Long term (Wednesday through Saturday)
issued at 222 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017
a rather complicated and potentially messy pattern to persist into
the extended period. By mid week, the medium range guidance is in
fair agreement with a rather deep trough positioned across the
eastern CONUS with generally northerly flow across the tennessee
valley. This will pull down rather cool and dry air though it's
often hard to time predict cloud cover in that type of flow regime.

Either way, expect temperatures will be quite a bit below normal on
Wednesday with some recovery expected on Thursday ahead of the next
upstream system.

The pattern gets quite interesting toward the end of the week as you
have a rather potent northern stream system diving southeast across
the midwest and toward the ohio valley. This will aid in
cyclogenesis across the great lakes and help push a cold front
toward the area in the Friday Saturday time frame. The medium range
guidance is not exactly on the same page with the GFS pushing the
front through on Friday night with the euro slower with more energy
noted in the southern stream. To add to the confusion, the canadian
has similar timing to the GFS but essentially a dry front with the
primary energy off the florida coast.

For now have trended with essentially a blend of the GFS euro for
timing and discounted the dry canadian solution. Also trended temps
down a notch for Saturday Sunday given the expected cloud cover with
the upper trough passage. Have also kept thunder out of the forecast
given the rather limited gulf return and overall cool
statically stable lower troposphere ahead of the approaching front.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1227 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017
bit of an active and slightly uncertain forecast through the next 24
hours as a cold front moves into the region from the west. Low clouds
have been increasing across the area, with MVFR CIGS at times.

However, based on latest trends and guidance, these lower CIGS should
not be prevailing much this afternoon. Rain will move into the kmsl
terminal around 21z, followed by the khsv terminal around 00z. There
may be some thunder accompany the showers, however confidence on
coverage is very low so will leave the vcts in the forecast.

Conditions will deteriorate through the evening hours, as MVFR cigs
move in between 03z and 06z. MVFR CIGS will persist through the
remainder of the period. Southerly winds will be gusty at times
through the afternoon hours, with gusts up to 25kts. These will
diminish slightly after sunset and then become westerly by Monday

Hun watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Tn... None.

Near term... 73
short term... 73
long term... 15
aviation... 73
for more information please visit our website
at weather.Gov huntsville.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muscle Shoals, North West Alabama Regional Airport, AL6 mi46 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast76°F64°F67%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MSL (wind in knots)
1 day agoCalmCalmE5SE3CalmCalmE4E3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE6SE10S11S11S14SE11S10SE7E4
2 days agoE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmNE46NE5NE7E9E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Huntsville, AL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Alabama
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.