Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:53PM Thursday August 17, 2017 9:12 PM EDT (01:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 3:26PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 636 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, NC
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location: 34.88, -76.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 172230
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
630 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure moves off the coast today. A cold front will
move into the area this weekend and stall. This front will move
south of the area early next week. High pressure builds back in
by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area in the
middle of next week, with unsettled weather expected to
continue.

Near term tonight
As of 630 pm Thursday... Latest sfc analysis shows weak 1016mb
high pressure over the area, with weak warm front across SE nc
just south of ilm. Latest radar imagery shows showers and
storms moving through the northern coastal plain early this
evening, with the southern portion of the convection weakening.

Storms this afternoon formed along and just ahead of the weak
warm front. Latest mesoanalysis shows dewpoints in the mid upper
70s, mu CAPE values 2-3000 j kg, and 0-6 km shear 10-15 kt. The
main threat for the next hour or two will be locally heavy
rainfall, with pwats of 2.3". Expect convection to overall wane
with loss of heating this evening. Mainly dry weather expected
for the overnight with patchy fog possible where we saw rains
this afternoon and evening. Toward daybreak a shower or two may
move onshore across the southern coastal counties, as the
boundary mentioned above lifts northward.

Short term Friday
As of 330 pm Thursday... The warm front mentioned above moves
into our area Friday, with a better chance for more of the area
to see scattered storms. If you take a look at what is happening
to our southwest today near wilmington, this should give us a
good snap shot for our weather Friday. As dewpoints creep into
the mid to upper 70s for more of the area, and highs push the
lower 90s, head indices above 100 are likely. We will continue
to mention the possibility of heat indices near 105 in our hwo.

The shift tonight may have to consider a heat advisory if
confidence grows that we will exceed 105 for a few hours.

Mlcapes around 2,000 j kg and lifted indices around -5 support
the chance for some severe storms Friday afternoon. Spc
continues our area in a general thunderstorm risk but soundings
do show slightly better shear and wind fields than today, with
the warm front moving through.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 330 pm Thursday... Unsettle conditions will continue
Friday night and Saturday with the approach of a cold front in
the area, before drier conditions begin Sunday into early next
week. A significant shortwave will drop down mid week into the
area leading to better rain chances by mid week.

Friday night through Saturday... The approaching cold front
will continue to bring an increase of low level moisture and
instability across the area Friday night and Saturday... Leading
to showers and thunderstorms. Instability will be especially
high for Saturday with forecast CAPE values in excess of 3000
j kg and LI value around -9 during peak heating. Will have high
chance pops Friday night and Saturday. A decent mid-level
shortwave may also keep storms going over the northern tier
Friday night and will have high chance pops north and along the
coast Friday night. Overnight lows are expect to range mid upper
70s inland to around 80 degrees along obx. Saturday will be
warm and humid with highs near 90 inland and mid 80s along the
coast.

Sunday through Tuesday... Models continue to show a drier
trends with pops starting Sunday through Tuesday as a mid-level
ridge expands across the area leading to hot temperatures and
less convection as precipitable water values drop to 1.6 inches
or less for a couple of days. There may be a few storms along
the sea breeze, but pops will be below climo through this
period. Expect high temps near 90 degrees inland and around mid
80 along the coast. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to
mid upper 70s along the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday... The mid-upper level ridge starts to
break down as a shortwave drops down from the great lake region
and into the middle-atlantic southeast region on Wednesday, then
cold front approaches the area towards the end of the period.

This will lead to an increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms starting Wednesday into the latter part of next
week. Expect high temps in the mid upper 80s inland and mid
80s along the coast. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to mid
70s along the coast.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through Friday ...

as of 630 pm Thursday... Challenging forecast overnight with the
potential for sub-vfr fog and stratus again, though confidence
in development is low at this time. Mixed bag ofVFR and ifr
conditions across the terminals early this evening. Expect
ongoing convection to weaken in the next hour or two becoming
pred dry overnight. Light southerly winds should limit
widespread fog development, but could see some patchy fog and
possibly ifr stratus develop inland. Scattered showers and
storms likely to develop Friday afternoon and early evening.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 330 pm Thursday...VFR conditions will dominate most of
the period, except for Friday night and Saturday as sub-vfr
conditions will be possible under showers and thunderstorms
along with locally heavy downpours. A drier pattern will start
Sunday and improve further through the end of the period. Some
early morning fog and patchy stratus may also be possible in
areas that receive decent rainfall through the period.

Marine
Short term through Friday ...

as of 630 pm Thursday... Latest obs show S SE winds 5-10 kt, with
some gusts up to 15 kt across the outer southern waters with
seas around 2 ft. Very pleasant boating weather expected through
this evening. A warm front will lift through the waters tonight
and dissipate into Friday. As this happens winds will veer
toward the south early tonight, and southwest after midnight.

Speeds will increase from 10 to 15 early tonight, to 10 to 20
kts after midnight tonight through Friday. In response seas will
build to 3 feet by daybreak and 4 feet by Friday afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 330 pm Thursday... A cold front will approach the area
from the west, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing
winds Friday night SW 15-20 knots and then becoming SW 10-15
knots Saturday. Seas are expected to slightly build Friday night
in response with the increase winds, expect 3-4 ft with possible
5 ft over the outer waters. The cold front is expected to
dissipate over eastern nc Sunday, allowing winds to remain S sw
around 10 knots or less through the period. Seas will start to
subside Saturday night and expect seas to generally be 2-3 ft
through Tuesday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Eh
near term... Eh cqd
short term... Eh
long term... Bm
aviation... Eh cqd bm
marine... Eh cqd bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 20 mi72 min SSE 8 G 8.9 83°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.0)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi42 min S 6 G 8 83°F 82°F1015 hPa
41063 22 mi72 min S 7.8 G 7.8 84°F 1016.4 hPa (+0.5)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 41 mi42 min S 7 G 8.9 82°F 85°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC12 mi16 minSE 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1016.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi74 minS 410.00 miFair82°F79°F90%1016 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE3CalmSW3W3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm4E5NE4NE8E7E8S8S7S6S6S4SE4
1 day agoCalmSW4W3NW4W3SW5CalmNW4W4NW8NW7N6N7N7NE9NE5E76E11E7E5E9E6E7
2 days agoCalm--S3S3CalmCalmSE3S4S4CalmSE3CalmCalm5E8E7SE5S7S76S5S4SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Level, Core Sound, North Carolina
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Sea Level
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.30.20.30.40.50.50.50.40.30.20.10.100.10.20.30.50.70.80.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.40.71.21.51.71.71.51.10.80.40.20.10.30.71.21.72.12.221.81.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.