Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:24PM Sunday October 22, 2017 6:40 PM EDT (22:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 451 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through Thursday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, NC
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location: 34.88, -76.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 222046
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
446 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend into the region from the northeast
through Monday. A strong cold front will approach from the west
Monday night and move across the area through Tuesday night.

High pressure will build over the area Wednesday through Friday.

Another cold front will approach next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 330 pm Sunday... Surface high extending over area from ne
will result in light e-se flow over area tonight with increasing
low level moisture. Current CU scu over area expected to
dissipate with loss of heating this evening, but additional scu
likely to spread in from off the coast late evening and
overnight. Models in good agreement that coastal shower threat
will remain south of area until Monday morning. Winds and
increasing clouds likely to preclude patchy fog threat except
over NW sections where guidance indicates some development late
tonight. Min temps a few degs warmer than this morning with mid
50s inland to mid 60s coast.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 330 pm Sunday... Se-s flow and approaching strong short
wave trough will produce increasing shower threat during the day
with enough instability to warrant TSTM mention late afternoon.

Will have slight chance of showers along and east of hwy 17
during the morning, then mainly chance pops of showers isolated
tstms all zones in afternoon. Better chance of showers storms
and marginal threat of severe will be Monday night with better
dynamics. Low level thicknesses increase to around 1390 meters
but increased cloud cover expected to keep MAX temps near 80
inland to mid-upper 70s outer banks.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 345 pm Sunday... A strong cold front will bring a good
threat of showers with a few thunderstorms Monday night through
Tuesday followed by another shot of seasonably cool air for mid
to late next week.

Monday night through Tuesday night... A deep upper trough and
strong cold front will move through the region this period
bringing periods of heavy rain and a marginal threat of severe
storms. Vorticity advection increases as models depict dampening
shortwave trough pivoting through the tn ohio valleys, and will
spur sfc cyclogenesis in the southern appalachians acting to
increase dynamics and strengthening southerly flow on 40-50 kt
llj. Dewpoints will be quite high in the 60s and would be
sufficient for marginal instability, and the combination of
significant wind shear and marginal instability will spell a
high shear low CAPE scenario for strong or severe storms. Any
heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms could produce strong
gusty winds due to momentum transfer to the sfc from strong
winds aloft.

There remains some uncertainty with the timing of the heavier
precip stronger storms as 22 12z models are not in best
agreement but they have continued to trend a little faster with
onset Monday night. The GFS is on the faster side of guidance
bringing in heavier precip Monday evening while the NAM is on
the slower side delaying onset until early Tuesday morning. The
ecmwf and cmc are between these solutions. Due to the amplifying
nature of the upper trough digging into the eastern CONUS the
front will be slow to move across the region and expect descent
rain chances to continue through the day Tuesday, especially
east of highway 17, and continuing along the coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

Temps will be mild Monday night and Tuesday with strong
southerly flow ahead of the front. Lows Monday night expected
around 65-70 with highs Tuesday in the mid to perhaps upper 70s.

Much cooler Tuesday night as the front pushes offshore and
expect lows in the lower 50s inland to around 60 coast.

Wednesday through Friday... .Continued drying and cooling
expected Wednesday as the front will have pushed well off the
coast by early morning. Have retained the small pops for
Wednesday though confined them to the extreme eastern areas
mainly the obx as the deep upper low moves through E nc with
lingering deep layer moisture across the obx. Dry wnw flow on
Thursday as upper low finally exits off the mid atlantic coast
and high pressure builds into the region. Temps will be much
cooler for the mid week period with Wednesday and Thursday both
in the mid 60s to near 70 for highs. High pressure slides
offshore Friday with return flow bringing gradually warming
temps with highs around 70s. Low temps fall back into the 40s
inland and low mid 50s beaches for Thursday Friday mornings.

Saturday and Sunday... The high moves offshore next weekend
with another highly amplified upper trough and surface cold
front approaching from the west. Models remain in poor agreement
with the timing and details with the system but there will
likely be another good shot of precip and perhaps a period of
strong storms sometime next weekend as there will be increasing
jet dynamics with a moisture feed from the tropics into the
region. Temps will likely be near to a little above normal.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Short term through 18z Monday ...

as of 200 pm Sunday...VFR with scattered CU scu will prevail
into this evening. Late tonight there will be potential for
MVFR ceilings to develop as the flow becomes se. Tougher call on
fog as the models are indicating a better chance for low level
mixing though winds could still decouple but any clouds that
develop would then inhibit cooling and thus fog potential.

Guidance is indicating best potential for fog development over
nw sections and forecasting a tempo period of ifr at kpgv and
kiso 08z-12z. MVFR scu CIGS expected to develop at kewn and koaj
Monday morning with increasing SE flow but better coverage of
showers isolated tstms holding off until after 18z.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 4 pm Sunday... Periods of MVFR ifr ceilings and vsbys are
likely with fairly widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Monday night through the day Tuesday. The
precipitation should move east of the TAF sites by Tuesday
evening with much drier air moving in behind a strong cold
front.VFR conditions should prevail Wednesday through Friday,
although some decent radiational cooling conditions could lead
to some fog, especially around kpgv and kewn both Wednesday and
Thursday mornings.

Marine
Short term through Monday ...

as of 330 pm Sunday... High pressure extending over area from ne
will continue to move offshore tonight and Monday. Ne-e winds
around 10 kt will become e-se 10-15 kt overnight, and then se-s
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by late afternoon. Initiated sca
for waters south of oregon inlet starting 5 pm Monday.

Seas will build with increasing winds late tonight and Monday,
with heights 4-6 feet expected outer southern and central waters
by late in the day.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 415 pm Sunday... A strong cold front approaches the region
Monday night and Tuesday, then pushes through the waters
Tuesday night. Southerly winds increase drastically Monday night
and Tuesday, peaking around 20-30 kt with some gale force gusts
possible. Seas build to 6-9 ft Monday night and 7-11 feet
Tuesday. Have initiated an SCA starting late Monday Monday
evening for all waters except the inland rivers with this
package. The front pushes through the region Tuesday night
with winds becoming W NW around 10-15 kt through Wednesday. Seas
gradually subside Tuesday night to around 4-6 ft Wednesday.

Gradients tighten some Wednesday night into Thursday and the
upper trough axis swings through and expect NW winds around
10-20 kt with seas continuing around 4-6 ft. By late Thursday
expect winds to diminish to below 15 kt with seas dropping below
sca criteria. Light southerly winds around 5-10 kt expected
Friday with seas around 2-4 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 10 pm edt Tuesday
for amz135.

Small craft advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Monday to 6 pm edt Thursday for
amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Monday to 10 am edt Thursday
for amz156.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Monday to noon edt Thursday for
amz150.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Monday to 10 am edt Wednesday
for amz158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Sk
aviation... Jbm sk
marine... Jbm sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 20 mi40 min E 9.9 G 12 75°F 1024.8 hPa (-0.4)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi40 min E 5.1 G 7 74°F 73°F1025.3 hPa (-0.5)
41063 22 mi40 min E 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 1025.5 hPa (-0.6)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 41 mi40 min ENE 5.1 G 8 74°F 73°F1025.8 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC12 mi44 minENE 710.00 mi0°F0°F%1025.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi1.7 hrsE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F64°F67%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7E5E6E6E5E5E6NE5NE5CalmN5N6N6N6NE7NE7NE9E9NE9NE10NE9--E7
1 day agoS4S3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmW4W3--NW3N4--N5N6N8N8NE8NE9NE10NE8E8E8E7
2 days agoE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5W4W4W4W4NW4NW54W7W6W53NE5E5E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Level, Core Sound, North Carolina
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Sea Level
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:27 AM EDT     0.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.30.50.60.80.80.80.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:08 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.81.51.10.70.40.20.20.511.622.22.11.91.51.10.70.40.20.30.71.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.