Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Havelock, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:53PM Saturday April 29, 2017 11:20 PM EDT (03:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:11AMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1003 Pm Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havelock, NC
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location: 34.88, -76.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 300159
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
959 pm edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the atlantic will continue through the
Sunday producing near record highs over eastern north
carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and
cross eastern nc Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in
behind the front Wednesday. A strong and slow moving low
pressure area will affect the region late next week.

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/
As of 10 pm pm sat... Warm and muggy night on tap again across e
nc as SW breezes keep pumping in the unseasonably warm
temperatures with lows generally upper 60s interior to low 70s
coast. Mostly clear skies may increase in coverage just like
last night with sct/bkn low clouds developing. May be some sea
fog yet again ESP north of hatteras where waters are cooler.

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday/
As of 315 pm sat... Flow regime will be unchanged for the most
part on Sunday, so another very warm day on tap with some near
record highs (climate sxn below). Perhaps a degree or so cooler
than Sat as low level thicknesses just a tick lower. No precip
chances as high pres will be strong sfc and aloft.

Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/
As of 345 pm Saturday... Models remain in decent agreement
through mid week with progressive upper low moving from plains
into great lakes breaking down upper ridge over SE us Sunday
night into Tuesday, followed by zonal flow Wednesday. The flow
will become more amplified late next week with the models
indicating the potential for a strong upper low to affect the
southeast and mid atlantic states. There is much uncertainty
regarding details with this system but there is a potential for
heavy rain and possibly severe weather thu/fri.

Sunday night... Ridging surface and aloft will result in another
warm night with lows mid 60s to around 70. Nam12 does indicate
possible scattered light shower threat with southerly flow
overnight which is in line with synoptic climo profiles of
showers along coast as front moves into eastern tn. However,
other models are dry and will not intro pops at this time.

Monday through Wednesday... A cold front will approach from the
w late Mon and slowly cross the region Mon night into early tue.

Temps remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly
inland during the aftn as the front approaches. Most models
continue to indicate a decent coverage of precipitation mon
night/early Tue and will continue likely pops this period. Ecmwf
had trended dry with 00z run but showing good coverage again
with 12z run, thus continued confidence in higher pops.

Lingering shra ends from W to E Tue morning with the front
sliding offshore. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s
then cool into the mid 70s to around 80 Tue behind the front.

High pressure is forecast to build into the area Tue night and
wed with dry weather and temps moderating into the low 80s
inland.

Thursday through Saturday... 12z ECMWF has come back in line with
gfs indicating upper low cutting off near gulf coast Thursday-
Friday and then slowly moving across SE us into weekend. Other
models continue to indicate more progressive solution, thus a
low confidence forecast. Uncertainty on details this far out
but there is a potential for heavy rain and/or severe weather
thu night and fri. Will indicate a continued threat of
showers/tstms into Saturday. Cooler temp trend is more likely
with either solution. Highs still around 80 thrusday and then in
70s Friday-Saturday.

Aviation /02z Sunday through Thursday/
Short term /through 18z Sunday/...

as of 10 pm sat... Winds will become light tonight with sct/bkn
MVFR CIGS developing yet again as fcst will be based on
persistence from last night. No fog expected as bndry layer will
remain somewhat mixed due to the 4-7 kt winds overnight. Skies
become mostly sunny on Sunday with another dry day on tap with
sw winds 10-15 kt.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

as of 340 pm Saturday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday
with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog development. A cold
front will be moving across the area Mon night into early tue
with better coverage of shra and storms with periods of subVFR
conditions possible. High pressure builds in behind the front
late Tue through Wed with a return to prevailingVFR conditions.

Some sub-vfr possible with possible shra and tstms developing
Thursday.

Marine
Short term /through Sunday/...

as 10 pm sat... S to SW winds of 10-20 knots will continue as
sprawling bermuda high pressure remains anchored offshore. Seas
will be 2-4 ft through Sunday with a wind dominated periodicity
around 5 seconds.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

as of 340 pm Saturday... Moderate SW flow of 10-20 kts with seas
around 3-5 ft expected thru Sun night around offshore high
pressure. An approaching cold front will increase SW winds to
20-30 kt Mon through early Tue with low end gales possible
central waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-11 ft by late
mon/mon night into early tue. SW winds diminish to 10-20 kt tue,
briefly become NW around 5-15 kt late Tue night, then back to
southerly 10 kt wed. Seas slowly subside Tue and Tue night,
dropping below 6 ft late Tue night and to 2 to 4 ft wed.

Sw winds will increase to 20-25 kt ahead of cold front Thursday
with seas building again to 4-6 ft.

Hydrology
As of 3 pm sat... The tar river in greenville is expected to
reach moderate flooding, while contentnea creek in hookerton is
in major flood stage. The neuse river in kinston is now at minor
flood stage, and is forecast to increase further to major flood
stage next week. The NE CAPE fear river in chinquapin forecast
remains in minor flooding. The roanoke river is forecast to rise
over the next several days due to increased flow out of kerr
dam but is expected to remain below flood stage. Additional
rainfall forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is not expected
to have a significant impact on the high water levels.

Climate
Record highs are possible Sunday with an extremely warm air
mass over eastern nc.

Record high temps for 04/30
---------------------------
location temp/year
new bern 91/1974 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 84/1974 (khse asos)
greenville 92/1957 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 86/1957 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 94/1906 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 90/1987 (knca awos)

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tl
near term... Hsa/tl
short term... Tl
long term... Jbm
aviation... Hsa/tl/jbm
marine... Hsa/tl/jbm
hydrology... Mhx
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 17 mi50 min SSW 9.9 G 12 73°F 73°F1022.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 27 mi80 min SSW 8 G 11 73°F 1022.8 hPa (+0.4)
41159 46 mi37 min 73°F3 ft
41064 47 mi72 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 73°F 1023.6 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SW9
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SW7
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G6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC3 mi86 minSSW 87.00 miClear74°F69°F85%1022.7 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC15 mi23 minSW 910.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1023.7 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC16 mi26 minSW 610.00 miFair72°F71°F97%1023.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC17 mi82 minSSW 1110.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11--S11
G18
S9S11SW8SW10SW12S9SW8SW13SW13SW11--S12SW11
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1 day agoS8S8S8S8S9S9S10SW10SW11SW10
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2 days agoS7S7S6S6SW4SW4SW4CalmCalm4SW8SW9S9--SW10
G17
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G25
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S7S5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:57 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.41.81.10.5-0-0.3-0.20.311.62.12.32.11.71.10.50-0.2-0.10.311.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:41 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.71.51.10.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.20.10.511.21.31.10.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.71.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.