Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Havelock, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:25PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:39 AM EDT (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:52AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1035 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Rest of today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to a moderate chop. Showers, then a chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havelock, NC
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location: 34.88, -76.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211449
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1049 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through tonight and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Tuesday
night. High pressure will build over the area mid to late week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1030 am Saturday... Some minor adjustments to hourly temp
and dew point trends this morning, otherwise forecast on track.

Previous discussion
as of 640 am Saturday... High pressure surface and aloft will
continue over the region through the weekend. Expect a
continuation of the nice weather of the past several days with
mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Shallow fog patches
will dissipate early this morning. Highs today inland will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with mid 70s beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 640 am Saturday... Mostly clear skies light winds will
result in good radiational cooling conditions and fog patches
developing in the late evening and overnight hours. Due to the
strong expected radiational cooling and lows from the past
several nights, will use the coolest (met) MOS for lows with min
temps ranging from the upper 40s inland to the lower 60s
beaches.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 315 am sat...

Sunday... High pressure will move off the coast Sunday though
flow will remain E to NE and continued lowered humidity vals
expected, even though daytime highs will rise a bit on
increasing low level thicknesses. It will continue to be mainly
sunny with highs in the lower 80s most places, with 70s on the
obx. Morning lows will be in the 50-55 degree range interior to
low 60s beaches.

Monday... The high moves further offshore Monday and significant
deepening shortwave and cold front begins to advance into the
deep south and tn valley. This will bring slight strengthening
return southeasterly flow, so some iso sct showers may advect
onshore across the fa as boundary layer moisture increases
through the day and into Monday night. Monday appears to be the
warmest day through the period with low lvl thicknesses maxing
out around 1390m, indicative of highs in the 80-84 degree range
for the entire area, save for the beaches which will remain in
the upr 70s.

Tuesday... Raised pops to categorical as 21 00z global model
suite in good agreement with timing strength of deep upper
trough and strong cold front progged to move through the region.

Vorticity advection increases as models depict dampening
shortwave trough pivoting through the tn ohio valleys, and will
spur sfc cyclogenesis in the southern appalachians acting to
increase dynamics and strengthening southerly flow on 50+ kt
llj. Dewpoints will be quite high in the 60s on Tuesday and
would be sufficient for marginal instability, and the combination
of significant wind shear and marginal instability could spell
a high shear low CAPE scenario for strong or severe storms. Any
heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms could produce strong
gusty winds due to momentum transfer to the sfc from strong
winds aloft.

Wednesday through Friday... Rapid drying and cooling expected
Wednesday as the front should move off the coast by early
morning. Have retained the small pops for Wednesday though
confined them to the extreme eastern areas mainly the obx as
the deep upper low moves through E nc with lingering deep layer
moisture across the obx. Dry wnw flow on Thursday as upper low
finally exits off the mid atlantic coast and high pressure
builds into the region. Temps will be much cooler for the mid
week period with Wednesday and Thursday both in the 60s to near
70 for highs. High pressure slides offshore Friday with return
flow bringing gradually warming temps with highs in the 70s.

Low temps fall back into the 50s inland to around 60 coast for
Wednesday morning, then into the 40s inland and low 50s beaches
for Thursday Friday mornings.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 640 am Saturday... Very shallow fog patches early this
morning with rapidly changing visibilities will dissipate around
13z (9 am) withVFR conditions then prevailing through this
evening. Conditions again will be favorable for fog patches to
develop again after midnight tonight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 320 am sat... PredVFR conditions expected Sunday into
Monday, however there may be overnight early morning fog all taf
sites as low level moisture increases and skies remain mostly clear
with calm winds each night. Brief periods of sub-vfr possible
with isolated to scattered showers spreading onshore Monday into
Monday night. Much better chance of widespread MVFR ifr arrives
on Tuesday as periods of heavy rain ahead of a strong cold
front. Gusty southerly winds also expected on Tuesday ahead of
the front. PredVFR expected to return Tuesday night through mid
week as drier air moves into the region behind the front.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1030 am Saturday... Increased winds to around 10-12 kt over
outer portions of waters south of oregon inlet with slightly
tighter pressure gradient there due to surface high extending
over area from north. Seas on track at 2-3 feet.

Previous discussion
as of 640 am Saturday... High pressure will continue over the
waters through the weekend producing light winds 10 kt or less
through tonight. Light variable winds this morning will become
ne E 5 to 10 kt later today into tonight then tend to become
light and variable again late tonight. Seas will continue mainly
2 to 3 ft through tonight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 320 am sat... High pressure continues over the waters
Sunday with northeast to east winds around 5-10 kt and seas
around 2-3 ft. Winds will veer to southeast on Monday as high
pressure moves further offshore and slowly increase from 5-10 kt
in the morning to 10-15 kt by late in the afternoon. Seas will
be around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase drastically Monday
night and peak around 20-30 kt with some gale force gusts
possible on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front approaching
from the west. Seas build to 8-12 feet by Tuesday afternoon
into the evening hours. The cold front pushes across the region
late Tuesday night with winds becoming NW around 10-15 kt and
seas gradually subsiding to 4-6 ft by Wednesday afternoon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme jbm
short term... Jme
long term... Tl
aviation... Jme tl
marine... Jme jbm tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 17 mi52 min N 5.1 G 8 71°F 72°F1027.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 27 mi40 min N 8 G 9.9 72°F 1026.7 hPa (+1.4)
41064 47 mi92 min NE 9.7 G 14 74°F 1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC3 mi46 minNE 4 miFair73°F0°F%1027.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC15 mi43 minENE 610.00 miFair74°F54°F50%1027.7 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC16 mi46 minVar 310.00 miFair71°F57°F63%1027.7 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC17 mi1.7 hrsNNE 710.00 miFair71°F59°F66%1027 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW3NW4N6NE4NE4S4Calm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE4
1 day agoNE10E10NE8NE5NE3E5E4CalmCalm--3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4
2 days agoNE12NE11NE9NE9NE10E9--NE5SE3NE8--NE10NE9N9NE7N9N8N6N6NE8--NE9NE9NE12

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:28 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.40.90.40.20.20.51.11.72.32.62.62.41.91.30.80.40.20.30.71.31.82.22.3

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:37 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.80.50.20.10.10.40.71.11.41.61.51.41.10.70.40.20.10.20.40.81.11.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.