Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday August 20, 2017 11:13 AM EDT (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 6:10PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 1010 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N early this afternoon, then becoming E late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms, then showers and tstms likely.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201408
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1008 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move across the area from the north today
and then stall and dissipate offshore tonight. High pressure
will extend over the area from offshore Monday through
Wednesday, then a stronger cold front will move through
Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 10 am Sunday... No changes to current forecast.

Previous discussion
as of 300 am Sunday... Latest guidance is indicating weak
surface cold front wind shift line currently just north of area
will move south across area this morning, followed by weak high
pressure from the n-nw. No significant cooling or drying
expected with boundary passage except for temps a few degrees
cooler northern outer banks with NE to E wind. Deeper moisture
axis has shifted off coast with short wave trough moving into
area, and guidance in general agreement only isolated
shower TSTM threat along coast over southern sections this
afternoon with weak convergence from sea breeze combined with
veering winds due to boundary passage.

Max temps mainly upper 80s to lower 90s with mid 80s for
northern outer banks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 300 am Sunday... Weak high pressure will extend over area
from n-ne with surface boundary dissipating offshore. Convective
activity expected to remain offshore during evening, but some
isolated threat along coast overnight with light onshore flow.

Patchy fog and low clouds possible for mainly inland sections
late tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds. Went with
mos blend for min temps, ranging from near 70 coastal plains to
mid 70s coast.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 345 am Sunday... Forecast remains on track with a quiet
start to the week followed by increasing chances for rain
Wednesday into Thursday. Much cooler weather still expected by
weeks end.

Monday Tuesday... Hot and humid weather expected both days with
inland highs into the 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s, keeping
muggy weather around. Most of the area will remain dry but a
front that has stalled over our area now will wash out over the
southern part of our forecast area. It will be here that a few
showers or storms will be possible during the peak heating of
the day. Pwats will be closer to climo this period, or around
1.5 to 1.75". This will make locally heavy rain a bit less of a
concern than it was the past few days with pwats well above the
2" mark.

Wednesday into Thursday... A cold front will move into north
carolina Wednesday and will be through most of our area by 12z
Thursday. This front will be an anafront with the best chance
for precipitation along and behind it. With that thinking will
maintain high chance pops (50%+) ahead of the front Wednesday,
with the most likely period for raining coming Wednesday night
into Thursday. With a good chunk of Wednesday looking dry we
will make another run at 90 inland. By Thursday however cooler
air aloft, clouds, and rain chances will cap temps in the lower
80s.

Friday into Saturday... .If you like the cooler weather for
Thursday, you will love our forecast heading into next weekend.

Highs will remain in the lower 80s both days, with lows at night
in the 60s! The 0z GFS has slowed the progression of drier
weather quite a bit for Friday. Leaned toward a compromise
between the gfs, and the euro and canadian. The end result will
be showers lingering into Friday, especially toward the coast.

Drier air makes a more substantial push late Friday into
Saturday, which will finally dry us out along with increase our
chances for some sunshine.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through 12z Monday ...

as of 10 am Sunday... Current ifr MVFR conditions at ewn and pgv
will burn off shortly as daytime heating and boundary layer
mixing increase.VFR expected today into this evening with just
and isolated shower TSTM threat for southern sections. Guidance
supports repeat of ifr fog stratus again late tonight with weak
high pressure extending over area from ne. Winds will become ne
this morning behind weak frontal passage and then gradually
veer to E and SE this afternoon evening but speeds remaining
below 10 kt, then near calm overnight.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Sunday...VFR through Tuesday. SubVFR conditions
possible late Wednesday into Thursday in scattered showers and
storms.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 10 am Sunday... No change to current marine zones.

Previous discussion
as of 300 am Sunday... Current sw-w winds 5-10 kt will shift to
n-ne this morning as weak front moves south across area. Weak
high pressure will build in from N and extend over area through
tonight with winds gradually veering to E and SE 10 kt or less.

Seas mainly 2-3 feet today will become 1-2 feet tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Sunday... Quiet boating conditions continue through
Tuesday. During this period winds will be 10 kts or less with
wave heights 2 to 3 feet. With a boundary near the coastal
waters wind directions will vary quite a bit during this time
depending on location on the water (north to south).

Tuesday night winds begin to increase out of the south as a
front approaches and by Wednesday marine conditions become less
favorable. Ahead of the front southwest winds increase 10 to 20
kt, with seas building to 3 to 4 feet as a gradient tightens
ahead of the front. We may see a few 5 footers outer central
waters during this time.

Behind the front winds shift into the northeast Thursday and
diminish to 10 to 15 kts. Seas take awhile to calm down
subsiding from near 4 feet early Thursday to 2 to 3 feet later
in the day.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Hsa jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Rsb eh
aviation... Hsa jbm eh
marine... Hsa jbm eh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi43 min Calm G 1.9 80°F 81°F1018.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi73 min S 5.1 G 5.1 78°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.9)
41063 44 mi73 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 81°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC13 mi17 minSSE 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1019.9 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi19 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1019.5 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair84°F77°F80%1019.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi75 minWSW 310.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12S11
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NW4SE4SE4S4S5W4CalmS4S5SW4W3CalmW4N3CalmCalmW4SW4S4
1 day agoS11
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CalmW15
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S10S10S8SW9SW10SW9SW7SW8SW8SW10SW9W11
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2 days agoNE4NE8E7E8S8S7S6S6S4SE4SE5S4S3S5S6S5S3S4S4S4SW6SW9SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:32 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:37 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:43 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.3-0-00.30.91.52.12.32.31.91.40.80.3-0-0.10.20.81.62.22.62.72.52

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:54 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:16 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:59 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:42 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.80.40-00.20.61.21.721.91.71.30.80.40-0.10.10.61.21.82.22.32.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.