Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 25, 2017 2:16 PM EDT (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:02AMMoonset 7:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 1253 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough late. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 251656
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1256 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move off the coast this morning. High
pressure will pass to the south Friday and Saturday. A frontal
boundary will drop in from the north Saturday night and become
stationary through Tuesday morning, when it will move off the
coast. Another front will move in Wednesday and become
stationary across the area.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1255 pm thu... No changes to the near term.

Prev dis... Latest sfc analysis is showing the cold front off
the nc coast with a sfc trough over the central nc. A few
showers are developing ahead of the sfc trough this morning and
have added pops to the forecast for the morning hours.

Thereafter, the mid-upper low's vort max; becoming negative
tilted this afternoon as it moves across eastern nc. Even
though, dewpoints will slightly drop into the upper 50s to
around 60s behind the front, but with strong quasi- geostrophic
forcing associated with the upper low trough and mid levels
becoming very cold (-20 to -15 degree c at 500mb) enough to
cause steep lapse rates aloft to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. SPC keeps the region in a marginal
risk for severe storms, though parameters looks less impressive
than Wed with drier air in place. Still cannot rule out an
isolated strong storm developing with gusty winds and hail.

Breezy gradient winds develop in the afternoon, with gusts 20-30
mph. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper 70s
to around 80 degrees.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
As of 330 am thu... Surface upper low along new england coast
lifts northeast with surface ridge building into the forecast
area from the southeast with cooler drier air. Lows tonight
will range in the upper 50s along the coastal plain to mid upper
60s south coast and outer banks.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 330 am thu... Friday will be a nice end to the week with a
return to drier weather with high pressure in control. With a
good amount of sunshine it will be much warmer than the past few
days with highs into the 80s. We turn hot this weekend as 850
mb temps climb into the upper teens, which wil result in highs
near 90 inland both days. In fact the 0z GFS shows 850 temps
spiking to around +21 22c at 18z Sunday, which if it verifies
will easily push highs into the lower 90s inland. A disturbance
in the northwest flow aloft Saturday night into Sunday is still
enough for a 30% to 50% chance of storms, with the highest
chances across the far north and northwest. Monday into most of
next week looks unsettled as a cold front moves into our area
and stalls out. Right now the best shot at showers storms would
be Monday night into Tuesday. Enough run to run differences have
existed with the movement of this front so we really can't rule
out shower chances as early as Monday. Late in the week the
boundary is close enough across the southern part of our area to
maintain at least a 30% chance each day. With clouds and
slightly cooler temps aloft, highs will mainly be in the 80s.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through tonight
as of 1255 pm thu... High confidence ofVFR conditions will
persist through most of the TAF period. Cold front has pushed
off the coast this morning... Leading to scattered clouds around
5kft. Expect scattered clouds through most of the day with bkn
ceiling as an mid-upper level vort MAX crosses eastern nc. This
will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of
which could be severe with gusty winds and hail. SW winds 10-15
knots with gusty winds up to 25 knots. Any convection will end
early this evening with skies becoming clear late tonight. Winds
will diminish to around 10 knots and continue through the
overnight.VFR conditions will continue Friday with SW winds
around 10 knots gusting to 20 knots.

Long term Fri through mon
as of 330 am thu...VFR Friday and Saturday. Brief subVFR
conditions possible Saturday night through Tuesday in scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 1255 am thu... No changes to the marine forecast. Latest
buoy obs are showing SW winds 15-20 with gusts up to 30 knots.

Seas are 6-11 ft south of CAPE hatteras with the highest over
the southern waters, meanwhile around 4 ft north of hatteras.

The cold front has pushed off the coast this morning, but winds
will remain southwest and increase 20-30 knots with occasional
gusts near gale force as the pressure gradient tightens. Will
monitor winds and make adjustments if winds increase to gale
force. Seas will be 7 to 11 ft south of oregon inlet and 4 to 6
ft north. No change to current small craft advisories now in
effect.

Long term Fri through mon
as of 330 am thu... Improving boating conditions over the waters
will be the general rule in the long term forecast, with good
boating conditions still expected this weekend and especially
for memorial day Monday.

On Friday west winds will still be in the 15-25 knot range early in
the day, with seas starting out 5 to 8 feet. This will be enough to
continue small craft advisories all waters first thing in the
morning. Improvement over the sounds is expected by midday but while
winds diminish to under 20 kts by Friday afternoon, seas will remain
5 to 7 feet over the coastal waters with small craft conditions
likely through sunset.

This weekend winds will back toward the southwest and be generally
10 to 20 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet. Wavewatch guidance still
suggest some 5 to 6 foot seas the outer waters off CAPE hatteras but
wind speeds do not support these heights and will trim back from
model guidance. By Monday and Tuesday winds will diminish even more
and remain out of the southwest at 10 to 15. With the continued
drop in wind speed waves will average around 3 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for amz136-
137.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Friday for amz130-131-150.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa bm
short term... Hsa
long term... Eh
aviation... Eh bm
marine... Eh hsa bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 17 76°F 73°F1002.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi77 min SW 20 G 27 75°F 1002.7 hPa (+0.0)
41063 44 mi77 min SW 25 G 31 75°F 1003.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S7
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G13
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G15
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G18
S21
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G24
S17
G22
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G25
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G29
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G26
SW11
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SW7
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SW9
G16
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SW7
G15
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G14
SW5
G12
SW7
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G20
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G22
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G23
SW15
G21
SW10
G14
W9
G15
W4
G12
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G7
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SW12
G19
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G15
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S10
S16
G23
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G19
S16
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G23
SW15
G20
SW10
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC13 mi21 minSSW 24 G 3510.00 miFair and Windy0°F0°F%1002.3 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi83 minWSW 21 G 2910.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy81°F54°F39%1001.9 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi23 minSW 12 G 2410.00 miFair79°F53°F41%1002.2 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi79 minSW 21 G 3110.00 miFair and Breezy77°F61°F58%1002.7 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S11--S14S7SW7S8S12
G19
S11S14
G22
S16
G22
S11
G17
S12
G20
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G18
--SW16
G23
SW12
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SW9SW15
G25
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G29
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G32
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G40
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G30
SW24
G35
1 day agoSW12
G20
S15
G20
S11
G18
S14
G19
--SW12SW12S9S9S11
G16
--S9--SW11W10--W6W9--W3S5S4S10S6
2 days agoSW15
G23
--SW16
G23
S13S13
G18
S13CalmSE3--SW3S4W4CalmCalmCalm----S7--S7--S7S10--

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.5-0-0.3-0.20.20.91.62.12.32.21.71.10.5-0-0.3-0.20.20.91.72.42.82.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:41 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:42 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.10.60.1-0.2-0.20.10.61.31.821.91.51.10.50.1-0.2-0.20.10.71.422.42.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.