Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:22PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:04 AM EDT (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:33AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 623 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Today..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy late. Showers with a slight chance of tstms, mainly this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241040
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
640 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will move across the area today and tonight.

High pressure will build over the area Wednesday through
Friday. Another cold front will move across over the weekend.

Near term today
As of 640 am tue... Latest sfc analysis shows 982mb low over the
great lakes region with attendant cold front draped through the
mid-atlantic and the nc coastal plain. The low becomes
vertically stacked today as upper trough deepens to the west.

Slow moving cold front will continue to push eastward into
eastern nc today, almost stalling along the coast this afternoon
and evening as it becomes parallel to the upper flow.

Latest radar imagery shows area of showers and isolated
embedded storms this morning, mainly along and east of highway
17. This line is progged to lift E NE over the next few hours.

Stronger winds aloft have been able to mix down in showers,
with gusts 40-50 mph... Though based on latest obs stronger
gradient winds beginning to diminish along the coast. Periods
of moderate to heavy rain likely for the next few hours with
pwat values now around 2 inches. Adjusted pops based on latest
radar trends and high res guidance. Precip chances will taper
off from west to east this morning, with best chances along the
immediate coast late this morning and afternoon. Will keep high
chance to likely pops along the outer banks today, though may
end up being a little overdone this afternoon and evening.

Latest satellite imagery shows rapid clearing behind this line
of convection over the central part of the state and coastal
plain. Could see some areas of fog develop inland if winds are
able to decouple early this morning, though any fog should lift
shortly after sunrise. Low level thickness values and
diminishing cloud cover support highs in the upper 70s to low
80s again today.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am tue... Vert stacked low over the great lakes will
weaken and lift northward tonight, as associated slow moving
cold front pushes through eastern nc. Much cooler and drier air
filters in behind the front as upper trough moves into the
eastern us. Could still see some isolated to widely scattered
showers along the immediate coast, mainly the outer banks.

Lowered pops from previous forecast based on latest high res
guidance, but chance pops may still be a little too high.

Overnight lows dropping to around 50 inland, and upper 50s to
low 60s along the immediate coast.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 315 am Tuesday... One system will exit the area early
Wednesday with cool high pressure providing fall-like weather
through late week. Another system will approach the area
Saturday then bring another round of precipitation Sunday with
cooler air arriving again on Monday.

Wednesday... Some precipitation may linger along the outer banks
early in the day before cold front moves offshore by midday
taking the precipitation with it. Dewpoints will tumble into the
40s on Wednesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
over most areas, except some lower 70s far southern zones.

Wednesday night through Saturday... High pressure will provide a
cooler, drier, more fall-like airmass Wednesday night through
Friday before the airmass moderates on Saturday ahead of an
oncoming cold front and developing surface low moving north from
florida. Lows will be in the 40s over most of the CWA Thursday
and Friday morning, with 50s to lower 60s outer banks. Daytime
highs will be in the comfortable 60s Thursday, warming to the
lower 70s Friday with a few mid 70s possible Saturday. Moisture
starts to stream north in earnest on Saturday, but precipitation
should hold off until Saturday night.

Saturday night through Monday... The medium range models continue
to show an area of low pressure moving north out of florida in
advance of another fairly strong cold front Saturday night and
Sunday. The GFS in particular is quite wet for Sunday and looks
to be overdone in comparison with other models. However, have
raised pops to high chance Saturday night and Sunday to account
for the wetter trend. Most of the instability on Sunday appears
to be offshore, but models have been inconsistent on the
strength of this system, but for now will have thunder just
offshore. Temperatures will be fairly warm for Sunday ahead of
the front, reaching the mid 70s, but another cooler and drier
airmass arrives for Monday with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 640 am tue... PredVFR across the TAF sites this morning.

Could see some brief ifr fog inland this morning, mainly at oaj
where skies have almost cleared and winds have decoupled. Precip
will continue to taper off from west to east in the next few
hours and will generally remain east of the TAF sites. Skies
will gradually clear late today and tonight, with just some
scattered scu.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 325 am Tuesday... All precipitation should be east of the
taf sites by Wednesday morning withVFR conditions to prevail.

High pressure will build into the region with cooler drier
weather Thursday and Friday with increasing moisture bringing
scattered lower clouds by Saturday. Could see patchy early
morning fog, especially Thursday and Friday mornings when
radiational cooling conditions will be maximized.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 640 am tue... Strong southerly winds and dangerous seas
across the waters this morning. SCA continues for the coastal
waters, sounds, and alligator river. Latest obs show southerly
winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt across the outer waters and
seas 5-11 ft. A cold front, over the nc coastal plain, will
continue to move slowly eastward today pushing through the
waters tonight. Gusty southerly winds will continue most of
today, slowly diminishing late evening and overnight. Could see
seas build up to around 12 ft on the central waters. Winds
become NW 10-15 kt behind the front late tonight, with seas
subsiding to 4-6 ft.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... With strong cool high pressure building
across the region, winds for Wednesday through Thursday should
be N NW at 10-15 knots with seas generally 3-5 feet. By Friday,
as the high weakens and moves offshore and another system starts
to approach from the south, winds veer to easterly then become
se S by Saturday with seas building to above 6 feet once again
as low pressure starts to approach from florida and another
strong cold front approaches from the west. Small craft advisory
conditions will be likely once again by Saturday afternoon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for amz130-
131.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for amz156.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Wednesday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for amz158.

Synopsis... Jbm cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc cqd
marine... Ctc cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi46 min NW 2.9 G 7 65°F 74°F1012 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi64 min WSW 7 G 9.9 69°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.0)
41063 44 mi64 min S 21 G 29 78°F 1012 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC13 mi68 minSSW 93.00 miHeavy Rain0°F0°F%1011.7 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi70 minWSW 48.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F66°F100%1011.4 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi70 minS 310.00 miOvercast65°F64°F100%1011.7 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi66 minW 910.00 miLight Rain67°F64°F93%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5SE5SE11S11
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1 day agoNE3CalmN5NE6E6NE7NE10NE8NE7NE7E4E3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalm--E3SE4SE4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE6NE4E5NE6NE6NE8NE8E7E3SE3SE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Tue -- 12:05 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:24 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:12 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.121.71.30.90.60.40.50.81.21.82.22.42.42.21.81.410.70.50.60.91.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:04 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.81.71.51.20.90.60.40.30.611.41.8221.91.61.20.90.60.40.40.61

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.