Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:30PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 12:28 AM EST (05:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:37AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 921 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Wednesday...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy.
Sun..S winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 240523
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1223 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure behind
the front will pass through from the west late this week, moving
off the coast this weekend. The next front will approach early
next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1230 am wed... Zones in good shape. No changes needed.

High pressure is slowlybuilding in from the west southwest with
a dry airmass. Clear skies and no fog overnight.

Prev disc... Line of heavy rain showers has moved off the coast,
and only widely scattered showers remain across eastern nc.

Have all pops offshore now, with dry weather expected through
tonight. Marine fog has developed and has moved into coastal
areas as strong warm SW flow rides over fairly cold water.

Visibilities are being reduced to 2 miles or less and will
continue to monitor if a fog advisory is needed. Strong winds
are expected this afternoon, as clearing allows good mixing of
the lower atmosphere, with very strong winds just above the
surface. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s
inland, with low to mid 60s at the coast.

Winds should die down after sunset, and with high pressure
building in, skies will remain clear. Low temps tonight will be
in the mid to upper 30s inland, and the low 40s along the coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
As of 310 pm tue... High pressure will shift just offshore on
Wednesday and provide dry weather, as upper trough exits to new
england. High temps are expected to be in the low to mid 50s
across the area.

Long term tonight through Tuesday
As of 330 am Tuesday... High pressure building in will bring dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures Tuesday night through
Friday. A warming trend will occur this weekend with another
threat for showers Saturday night and Sunday.

Wednesday night through Friday... A mid level disturbance and
sfc trough pushes across the region late Wednesday Wednesday
night and could see a few more clouds across the region but the
airmass remains very dry with pw values only around a third of
an inch and don't expect any precipitation. Will see height
rises across the region Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge
builds into the region keeping dry conditions. Sfc high pressure
builds in from the west Thursday and begins to push offshore
Friday. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low mid
50s and lows in the low mid 30s inland. Coastal sections will
be cooler with highs mainly in the mid upper 40s and lows in the
mid to upper 30s.

Saturday through Monday... The upper ridge and sfc high pressure
continues to slide eastward Saturday as an upper trough and sfc
cold front approach the region from the west. 00z ECMWF and
cmc remain in good agreement with the strength of the upper
trough and timing of the frontal system, albeit a little slower
than yesterday, but the last few runs of the GFS continues to
show a less amplified trough with faster timing and a much drier
solution. Due to the model differences leading to some
uncertainty, continue to limit pops in the chance range at this
time but am hedging to ECMWF cmc solutions. With that in mind,
could see a few WAA showers Saturday night into early Sunday
as increasing southerly flow brings increasing moisture across
the region but expect best forcing for ascent to occur Sunday
night as the region will be in the right front quadrant of the
upper jet. Preferred models continue to indicate a high shear
environment but little to no instability with li's remaining
positive. The front is progged to push offshore by early Monday
morning with lingering showers through the morning. Southerly
flow bring warmer temps Saturday and Sunday with highs climbing
into the mid 60s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along the
coast with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Temps drop back to near
normal behind the front Monday with highs expected in the 50s.

Aviation 05z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 1230 am wed...VFR through the short term. A very dry
airmass will be in place so no fog is forecast. An upper level
shortwave will pass through tonight with scattered mid-level
clouds but no precip forecast. Surface winds will be from the
west northwest through the period.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... Pred-vfr expected through the long term
as high pressure builds into the region for the latter half of
the week. Will see increasing clouds Saturday ahead of the next
frontal system approaching the region but expect CIGS to remain
vfr at this time.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1230 am wed... Will send updated zones shortly to update
coastal waters north of oregon inlet with the expiration of the
sca. No other changes made.

Prev disc... By Wednesday morning winds will be NW 10-15
kts, and will remain mostly steady through the day. Seas are
currently 6-10 ft, and begin to drop off this evening. Seas will
be 4-6 ft by early Wednesday morning, and then 2-4 ft for the
rest of Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... Expect W NW winds around 10-20 kt with
seas around 3-5 ft Wednesday morning. Winds diminish to 5-15 kt
with seas around 2-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. A mid level
disturbance and sfc trough move across the region Wednesday
night that will serve to increase wind back to 10-20 kt into
Thursday morning before becoming N around 5-15 kt Thursday
afternoon. Nly winds less than 15 kt Thursday night into Friday
gradually veer to easterly by late Friday with seas around 2-3
ft. SE winds increase to 10-15 kt Saturday with seas building to
2-4 ft late in the day head of an approaching frontal system.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz152-
154.

Small craft advisory until 3 am est early this morning for
amz156-158.

Synopsis... Sgk
near term... Hsa rf sgk
short term... Sgk
long term... Sk
aviation... Hsa rf sk
marine... Hsa rf sk sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi40 min W 1.9 G 5.1 51°F 50°F1013.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi28 min W 11 G 12 1014 hPa (+2.1)
41063 44 mi148 min WNW 18 G 23 62°F 66°F1012.5 hPa (+2.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi94 minW 910.00 miFair54°F51°F94%1013.2 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi34 minNW 510.00 miFair52°F34°F50%1014.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi90 minW 810.00 miFair53°F48°F83%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S9--S8--S11
G19
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SW9SW10SW3W9--W9W8
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3--E3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE6S6S6--S6--SE7SW4--Calm--SE3S5
2 days ago----------Calm--W3CalmSW5NW3W3--NE6NE4SE6S4S4SE3SE3SE3Calm--SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:23 AM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:58 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:41 PM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.91.91.61.30.90.50.20.10.20.611.41.71.81.61.30.80.40.1-0.100.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:21 AM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:40 PM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:35 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.41.61.61.41.10.80.50.20.10.20.40.81.21.51.51.41.10.80.40.1-0-00.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.