Wednesday, August22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

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Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday August 22, 2018 1:50 AM EDT (05:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 112 Am Edt Wed Aug 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of tonight..SW winds around 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds in the morning. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 220507
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
107 am edt Wed aug 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through eastern north carolina Wednesday
night, becoming stationary over the offshore waters this
weekend, then dissipating early next week. High pressure will
build in from the north Thursday and Friday. Then the bermuda
high will extend west into the area from the weekend into early
next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1 am wed... No changes to zones. Band of showers and
isolated thunder over midstate moving east. Will maintain chance
pops for the rest of the overnight.

Prev disc... Deep cyclonic flow will continue over much of the
eastern us through Wed coinciding with a plume of tropical
moisture characterized by pw values AOA 2" and 850 mb dewpoints
aoa 14c. While shear currently is marginal, it should increase
late this afternoon as a shortwave rotates through the mid level
trough. Since this is occuring during peak heating, both
coverage and intensity of convection is expected to increase
late today with forecast mucapes 2500-3000 j kg expected. This
supports current SPC "marginal" severe outlook with damaging
wind gusts the main threat, and also supports the wpc forecast
of a "marginal" risk for excessive rains. The 00z nssl- wrf
indicates local rainfall amounts around 3" possible in a short
period of time which could produce flash flooding.

Coverage intensity are both forecast to decrease mid evening
with loss of heating and influx of drier air inland. Will
continue chance pops late, highest coast where gulfstream
activity is expected affect the immediate coast overnight.

Overnight lows will continue warm in the low to mid 70s inland
and mid to upper 70s coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 350 pm tue... Similar conditions continue Wed with deep
cyclonic flow though mean 1000-500 mb mean rh is slightly
lower. The cold front will be slowly moving through the area
during the afternoon and evening and will help to enhance
activity thus warranting a continuation of the "marginal"
severe weather and excessive rainfall outlooks. Main threats
will be isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rains.

Will continue high chance pops. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
As of 350 pm tue... A cold front will push through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. A pleasantly cooler and much
drier airmass will move into the region Thursday and Friday and
continue into early with rain chances the next 5-7 days well
below normal and moderating temps early next week.

Wednesday night... Could see some strong storms Wed evening as
the cold front crosses the area, with rain chances ending by 12z
thu most areas as the front clears the area late. Lows will
range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s coast.

Thursday through early next week... Will only be carrying slight
chance pops as the gfs ECMWF models are mainly dry through
early next week with little to no QPF indicated for the next 5-7
days as high pressure builds in initially from the north
through late week then from the atlantic from the weekend into
early next week. Expect temps below normal, with highs in the
low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s inland low 70s
coast through late week. The upper ridge will strengthen over
the area late weekend into early next week as main surface high
is centered just to the east allowing the flow to come back out
of the south mon. In response temps will gradually warm over
the weekend and early next week with still below normal rain
chances expected through tue.

Aviation 05z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wed ...

as of 1 am wed... Sub-vfr possible in scattered convection now
through this evening. Surface winds SW 10-15 knots today... Sw
around 5 knots this evening, veering to northwest around 5 knots
after midnight.

Long term Wed night through Sun ...

as of 350 pm tue... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
produce brief sub-vfr conditions with a cold frontal passage wed
night. A drier airmass will then move into the area Thu into
the weekend with little to precipitation expected and predVFR
conditions.

Marine
Short term through Wed ...

as of 1 am wed... No changes to zones. Winds have been gusting
aoa 25 kts central and ERN portion of pamlico sound so SCA looks
good. Mdls show winds increasing tonight and Wed cstl wtrs so
expect SCA to grad develop S of oregon inlet per current fcst.

Prev disc... The pressure gradient will tighten up across the
area tonight and Wed as an upper trof surface cold front
approaches from the west. In response, winds will increase to
15-25 knots on the coastal waters and pamlico sound into wed,
and 10-20 knots elsewhere. Seas will build to 4-6 feet late
tonight into early Wed for the waters south of oregon inlet, so
will continue the small craft advisory for these zones.

Long term Wed night through Sun ...

as of 350 pm tue... The cold front will cross the waters late
wed night with winds shifting to NE 10-20 kt behind the front
thu and ne-e 10-15 kt Fri and around 10 kt sat. Winds are
forecast to be l v Sunday. Seas will subside 3-5 ft Thursday and
2-4 ft Friday, then becoming 2-3 ft Saturday and Sunday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for amz156.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for amz158.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Hsa rf
short term... Jme
long term... Jme bm
aviation... Hsa bm
marine... Hsa rf jme


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi39 min SW 8 G 13 81°F 83°F1015.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi111 min SSW 11 G 16 1016 hPa (-0.3)
41063 44 mi51 min SW 19 G 27 83°F 1015.4 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi57 minSSW 1110.00 miFair81°F78°F91%1014.7 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi57 minSSW 610.00 miFair76°F75°F97%1014.8 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi1.9 hrsSW 1510.00 miA Few Clouds81°F79°F94%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6SW6SW7SW5S4SW4SW8SW7S7S8SW14
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1 day agoSW6W5--N5CalmS6SW4CalmCalm3S5S7S9S13NE4--S9S6S5S6S5SW7--S5
2 days agoSW12SW9SW11SW10SW10SW9SW10SW11SW10SW13W15
G19
W10W10SW9SW8SW11S6S7SW5CalmSW6SW5NE6SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:07 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:12 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.50.81.21.61.91.91.81.51.10.80.50.40.60.91.31.82.22.32.321.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:43 AM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:19 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.40.40.611.31.61.61.51.310.70.50.40.40.71.11.51.821.91.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.