Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:18 AM EDT (14:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 628 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211032
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
632 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
A front will push into the northern sections this evening and
early Friday, then lift back north late Friday and Friday night.

Another front will move into the region Monday, pushing south of
the area Monday night. High pressure will build into eastern
north carolina Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term today
As of 630 am thu... Latest sfc analysis shows frontal boundary
draped through the mid-atlantic with high pressure anchored off
the SE us. Shortwave energy moves offshore early this morning
with shortwave ridging ahead of an upper low moving into the
central plains. A backdoor front will approach from the north
through the day, moving into northern sections this evening.

Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers across the southern
waters this morning.

Another active wx day expected across eastern nc with scattered
to numerous showers and storms, as well as some heat index
values at or above 105 degrees. SPC has upgraded the area to a
marginal risk of severe wx this afternoon and tonight.

Atmosphere remains very moist and unstable with pwat values
above 2" and mu capes around 3000 j kg. Also looks like there
will be a little more shear than last several days, with 0-6 km
15-25 kt, which should support more organized convection. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with main
forcing being the sea breeze and outflow boundary convergence.

Then high res models show more organized convection moving in
from the west this evening. Some strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon through the first part of tonight, and
damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and frequent lightning will
again be the main threats.

Hot and humid once again today. Low level thicknesses values
and SW flow support highs temps in the low to mid 90s inland and
upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. With dewpoints similar to
the past several days, low 70s inland and mid upper 70s along
and east of hwy 17, am coming up with a few counties that will
likely see heat index values around 105 degrees this afternoon.

So will issue a heat advisory for carteret, onslow, jones,
craven and pamlico counties. Elsewhere expect heat index values
to remain below 105 deg.

Short term tonight
As of 630 am thu... Surface front will sink southward into the
northern forecast area this evening and tonight while weak lows
develop along it, and as shortwave energy moves in from the west
ahead of the upper low in the mid- west. Sfc front and outflow
boundaries should act as a focus for convective development.

Nssl WRF shows move organized convection pushing into the area
after 00z, and at this time looks like the svr threat could
continue through 06z. Again strong wind gusts, heavy rain and
frequent lightning are the primary threats. Wpc has most of the
area outlooked in a slight risk (northern sections) or marginal
risk for excessive rainfall tonight. Heavy rainfall could lead
to localized minor flooding... And added heavy rainfall wording
to the grids. Overnight lows in the 70s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 325 am Thursday... Hot and humid SW flow is expected to
redevelop Fri and continue through the weekend. A moderately
strong cold front is then forecast to move into eastern nc
Monday, pushing south of the region Monday night. High pressure
will then build into the area from the north Tuesday into
Thursday with temps near or slightly below normal. Decent rain
chances are expected Friday supported by a mid level shortwave.

Broad troughing aloft will keep the threat for convection in the
forecast over the weekend. The cold front will bring even
better chances for precipitation from Sunday night into Monday
night, then much lower but not non zero chances for mainly
diurnally driven showers and storms are expected from Tuesday
into Thursday as high pressure builds over the area from the
north.

Friday through Monday... Unsettled muggy weather is expected
during this period. Shortwave energy should support decent
coverage of showers and thunderstorms into Friday evening. Broad
upper troughing is expected to persist over the area over the
weekend aiding lift of hot humid airmass which will be in place
across the carolinas leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The cold front will continue the threat for
showers and storms Mon mon night.

Tue through thu... The front is forecast to push south of the
region Tue as high pressure builds over the area from the
north through thu. As is typical for this time of year, there
will be enough residual moisture and instability behind the
front to warrant low chance pops each day for a few mainly
diurnally driven showers or storms. Temps will be closer to
normal values in the low to mid 80s.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am thu... Patchy MVFR fog at oaj and iso will
dissipate shortly after 12z this morning, becoming predVFR.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this
afternoon and tonight, with periods of sub-vfr likely. Patchy
fog and or low stratus will again be possible late tonight into
early Friday morning.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through
most of the long term, with the exception of occasional subVFR
conditions possible each day in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am thu... Latest obs show SW 5-15 kt with seas 2-4
ft. SW winds are expected to increase to 10-20 kt today as
gradients tighten ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from
the north. Winds will be strongest south of oregon inlet
including the pamlico sound. Seas will build to 2 to 4 ft today,
maybe up to 5 ft across the outer central and southern waters
by late afternoon. The front is forecast to push into the
northern waters tonight, then slowly sink southward, though not
likely to make it south of hatteras by early Friday morning.

Winds north of oregon inlet and across the albemarle sound will
shift behind the front tonight, becoming NE E 5-15 kt.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday... S flow 10 to 15 kt Fri increases to sw
15 to 20 kt Fri night and 20-25 kt late Sat and Sat night. Winds
may briefly decrease to 10-20 kt Sunday then increase to 20-25
kt Sunday night early Monday ahead of the cold front. 2 to 4 ft
seas Fri build to 3 to 5 ft Fri night and sat, then 4 to 6 ft
sat night into early mon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for ncz092>095-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jme cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme cqd
marine... Jme cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi49 min WSW 5.1 G 12 82°F 84°F1010.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi79 min WSW 13 G 15 1010.1 hPa (+0.9)
41063 44 mi139 min W 12 G 16 82°F 1010 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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G15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi25 minW 610.00 miFair86°F77°F75%1009.5 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi25 minW 510.00 miFair84°F75°F74%1009.8 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi81 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F77°F85%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE44CalmCalmE6S10
G17
S10S6--S4S3W3--NE8S6S6S7SW4SW7SW6SW5SW8W7W6
1 day agoW6W7NW53W9SW10----SW7SW6SW5--SW8SW7SW7W7N4CalmSE3CalmCalmNE4N3N7
2 days agoSW8SW5SW6SW5CalmS9S6SE3S6SW7SW4SW4SW6SW8--SW7--W11W10W9W11W11W8W9

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:01 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:16 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.51.921.91.61.10.70.3000.30.81.31.82.12.221.61.10.70.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:00 AM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:53 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.81.21.61.71.61.410.60.30.1-00.20.61.11.51.81.91.71.410.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.