Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 4:46 PM   Moonset 4:45 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS66 KHNX 200810 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 110 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024



KEY MESSAGES
1. High temperatures remain above average through Monday

2. There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada in Tulare and Fresno Counties this afternoon.

3. Cooling trend expected Tuesday through Friday

DISCUSSION

We have a ridge of high pressure just off the Pacific coast with a weak shortwave trough which brought some thunderstorms to the SIerra Nevada on Friday afternoon sliding southeast and dissipating.
However, the trough impacts can still be seen later today with the potential of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada again this afternoon. Latest model ensembles are in agreement that the ridge will move onshore and strengthen a bit over our area while flattening to our north due to a trough that is going to slide along the U.S.-Canada border. This ridge has helped warm temperatures and will continue warming through the weekend until Monday.

Thunderstorm probability for this afternoon is at about 10 to 15 percent in the Tulare and Fresno county portions of the Sierra Nevada with CAPE values peaking around 1000 J/kg. Lapse rates between 500 and 700 mb over the SIerra Nevada are around 7 to 8 C/km which indicates a heavy lean towards instability.
The surface based lifted index is peaking around -5 to -6 C which is not common for the Sierra Nevada. These parameters along with the warming temperatures and leftover moisture make thunderstorms favorable for this afternoon.

Monday is expected to be the warmest day with the best probabilities for our first 90 degree day of the year. Most locations in the Valley south of Madera and Merced have a 35 to 50 percent probability of a high of at least 90 degrees on Monday with the exception of Reedley. Kern County locations including Delano and Bakersfield have the highest probability between 45 and 50 percent of a high of at least 90.

However, things change on Tuesday as the ridge moves east and a trough slides in from the Pacific coast bringing cooler temperatures. Model ensembles are in agreement that this trough will weaken before being absorbed by a second trough that will move across the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Friday which will strengthen the trough. By Friday, there will only be a 20 to 45 percent probability of high temperatures of at least 75 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley and foothills.


AVIATION
Kern County Desert may have less than VFR conditions until 12Z this morning due to blowing dust. Thunderstorms are possible between 18Z today and 3Z Sunday mainly in the Tulare and Fresno County portions of the SIerra Nevada. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ338.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Santa Monica
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:25 AM PDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:15 AM PDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:40 PM PDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California, Tide feet

Santa Monica
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:23 AM PDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:13 AM PDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM PDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:41 PM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Monica, California, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Edwards AFB, CA,