Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 11:45 PM EDT (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:19AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 934 Pm Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop late. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200143
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
943 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
An offshore high inland trough pattern will continue through mid
week producing a hot southwest flow across the area. A weak
backdoor front is expected to move into northern sections
tonight and Wednesday with a stronger front pushing through the
area Thursday. That front will lift back north across the area
Friday night and early Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 935 pm tues... Ahead of a weak backdoor front, some
isolated showers and thunderstorms are currently moving into
the albemarle sound and nobx, with more widespread showers and
storms moving through southern va and into northern nc.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
persist mostly north of us 64 tonight as the front slwoly moves
south over the region. Have chance pops over these areas
through early Wednesday morning, and then keep slight chance
pops over the outer banks and coastal waters into the hours
before daybreak. Temperatures have cooled into low to mid 80s
across the area, and are expected to drop into the low to mid
70s inland, and the mid to upper 70s near the coast by morning.

Some patchy fog is possible across inland sites, as winds become
light and variable ahead of or just behind the incoming
backdoor front.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
As of 330 pm Tuesday... The weak backdoor front will push well
southward into eastern nc by sunrise Wednesday morning,
stretching from approximately duplin east to carteret county.

The ridge aloft over the southeastern u.S. Will persist on
Wednesday. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon due to the weak boundary over the area and
weak shortwave impulses aloft. Isolated strong storms with
gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain will be possible.

The weak front will help temper back the heat and humidity for
the hwy 64 counties, albemarle sound, and northern outer banks.

South of hwy 64, heat index values will again build to 105 to
109 degrees, warranting another heat advisory for most of
eastern nc from pitt county east to hyde, then south, but not
including the outer banks since temperatures are expected to be
a few degrees cooler despite dew points of 76 to 78 degrees.

Later shifts may expand the heat advisory to the obx north if
needed.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
As of 330 am Tuesday... Guidance continues to indicate that upper
ridge will weaken enough to allow weak frontal intrusion into
northern sections Wednesday, followed by a slightly stronger
push late Thursday into Friday. Ridging then returns Friday
night through weekend with a stronger upper trough and surface
front expected Monday. Result will be somewhat of a
roller coaster effect on temps and generally at least a
scattered threat of showers and tstms each day.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Slight weakening of upper ridge
will allow surface boundary to be over northern sections early
Wednesday morning with models generally agreeing on push to near
hwy 70 by afternoon, then stalling and lifting back north wed
night as low pressure moves across mid atlantic region. Boundary
will be a focus for convective development mid-morning through
afternoon and a few storms could be strong to severe per SPC day
2 outlook. Adjusted pops to 30% northern sections late morning
into early afternoon, and to 50% for southern 2 3 of area during
afternoon. Chance pops will continue Wed night with boundary
lifting back north and shortwave moving across. Front will have
limited effect on temps as westerly flow in advance of boundary
still supports MAX temps in mid to upper 90s and heat indices
105-110 for southern 2 3 of area while northern sections held
to lower 90s. NE winds will keep northern outer banks in 80s.

Thursday through Monday... Front to north of area Thu morning
will push south during afternoon and to near ilm Thu night and
will again be a focus for convective development, with some
potential for heavy downpours and a few strong to severe storms.

Increased pops to likely for northern 2 3 of area Thu afternoon
with high chance for southern sections Thu night. High pressure
moving across to north will keep front stalled to south Friday
but models continue to indicate scattered convective threat.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of
inland thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend, and will keep
typical 20% coast 30% inland pops both days. Stronger upper
trough moves and associated cold front moves in from NW Monday
and will have chance pops all zones for now.

Hot and humid conditions will continue Thursday with highs
mainly low to mid 90s and heat indices around 105 inland. Some
relief behind front for Friday with highs in mid to upper 80s.

Heat returns for weekend with around 90 for Saturday and low-mid
90s Sunday, then some cool down expected for Monday.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday evening ...

as of 720 pm tues...VFR conditions are expected for most of the
taf period. The only exception to this will be a possible brief
period of MVFR patchy fog just before sunrise across the
coastal plain, including kiso and kpgv. Think that abundant low
level moisture and calm winds due to a weak front moving over
the area, and clear skies will contribute to these conditions.

Elsewhere,VFR conditions will quickly return once the sun
rises, and will continue through the morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible by the afternoon Wednesday and could
temporarily inhibit flying conditions.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 400 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible each day due to scattered thunderstorms.

Some sub-vfr CIGS will be possible with ne-e flow behind front
Friday into Friday night.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 335 pm Tuesday... Latest surface and buoy data indicate
mostly SW to W winds 5-15 kt across the coastal waters and
sounds with seas 1-3 ft north of hatteras and 3-5 ft south of
hatteras. An offshore ridge inland trough pattern will continue
this evening, yielding the typical diurnally enhanced wind
pattern. There could be a few gusts to 25 kt across the
southern central waters and pamlico sound late afternoon and
evening when the peak gradient occurs related to the sea-breeze
development. Seas 3-5 ft south of hatteras expected to subside
to 2-4 ft by this evening. A weak backdoor front will approach
the waters this evening, then sink southward into the northern
waters tonight, and eventually across the central waters by
Wednesday morning. Still some uncertainty in how fast the
boundary will move, and where it stalls late tonight into
Wednesday morning, but seems likely it will not make it south
of lookout. Not expecting a strong surge behind the front at
this time. Winds north of hatteras becoming NW to NE 5-15 kt.

The boundary will washout across the area Wednesday afternoon
with southerly winds taking back over late in the day, mostly
5-15 kt with seas 1-3 ft.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday ...

as of 400 am Tuesday... Southern half of waters will continue to
see SW winds mainly 10-15 kt into thu, while northern half will
see shifting and variable conditions due to weak front pushing
in from north Wed and then returning north Wed night. Stronger
front expected to push through all waters late Thu into Friday,
producing ne-e winds 10-15 kt. Winds will return to s-sw 10-15
kt by late Saturday with return of inland trough offshore high
pattern. Seas mainly 2-4 feet during period.

Climate
Near record high temperatures will be possible early this week.

Record high temps 6 19 (today)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 1984
greenville 98 1975
jacksonville 97 1984
kinston 100 1944
morehead city 94 1984
new bern 99 1970
record high temps 6 20 (Wednesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 2011
greenville 99 1970
jacksonville 97 1994
kinston 104 1924
morehead city 93 2011
new bern 98 1994

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Wednesday for ncz044-
079>081-090>095-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk cqd
near term... Sgk
short term... Dag
long term... Jbm
aviation... Jbm sgk
marine... Dag jbm
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi45 min WSW 6 G 12 82°F 85°F1011.4 hPa (+0.7)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi45 min WSW 11 G 17 1011.4 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Last
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W5
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NE12
G17
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G15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi51 minSSW 38.00 miA Few Clouds80°F75°F87%1011.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi51 minSW 88.00 miFair82°F81°F97%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4SW4W5SW5W6W6SW4W5W654W7W8W10
G14
SW7SW6W7W6W4CalmSW3SW4SW3
1 day agoSW7W3SW10
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S3E3SE4S4S3SW4W6SW6SW8W53NW5NW4CalmS7S7S5CalmSW6SW5
2 days agoS3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW6SW8W9SW8W6SW8SW7SW6SW10S7W8
G18
S3S4S4S7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:59 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:37 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.12.32.21.81.30.70.2-0.1-0.10.10.61.31.82.12.21.91.510.50.200.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:45 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:27 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.21.41.51.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.100.40.711.21.21.10.80.50.30.100.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.