Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:58PM Monday December 10, 2018 8:31 AM EST (13:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 632 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..N winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Rain likely with areas of drizzle early this morning, then rain late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except around 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 101109
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
609 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
Strong low pressure will linger off the coast through tonight
then move northeast away from the area Tuesday. High pressure
will build over the region Tuesday night through Thursday.

Another strong storm system will affect the area late in the
week into the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 600 am Sunday... Winds have diminished a bit along the
coast so will lower high wind warning obx dare to a wind
advisory. Otherwise not much change as widespread rain drizzle
will cont thru midday. Will cont to monitor precip type trends
as low lvls fcst to cool and could see some snow sleet mix in
inland. Any accumulations expected to be very light into the
evening.

Prev disc... Strong low pressure is drifting slowly E of cape
hatteras. The main low will cont to lift ene away from the area
today, though a piece will linger back closer to the coast as
expect additional cyclogenesis to occur ahead of approaching upr
trf. This will keep strong winds and mainly light precip over
the region much of the day.

Will cont likely to cat pops thru the morn with mix of mainly
light rain and drizzle. May see a little heavier band cross
after 12z per latest mdls. Ptype quite tricky as low lvls cool a
bit thru the morn and soundings inland look favorable for some
snow or sleet to mix in. Since sfc temps expected to remain
above freezing and precip will be mainly light not expecting any
impacts if do see some snow sleet. Later today precip will grad
diminish and shift E and again some snow sleet could mix in
closer to cst late twrd evening. Clouds... Precip and nne flow
will keep temps cold with highs in the 30s inland to 40s
beaches.

Tight press grdnt will persist over the region keeping nne
winds strong espcly obx. Will keep high wind warning for obx
dare where still seeing some gusts AOA 50 mph. Wind advry will
cont for obx hyde and carteret as well. Later this morn and
into the aftn winds shld grad diminish enuf to lower wind
headlines.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 215 am mon... As upper trof finally reaches coast expect
secondary sfc low to grad push E with winds slowly diminishing
and precip tapering off or ending from W to e. Cooler and drier
air on backside of low will likely lead to precip shield ending
as light snow or a rain snow mix mainly inland... Again given
light precip and marginal temps not expecting impacts with any
accumulations remaining very light. Lows will range from around
30 deep inland to 35 to 40 beaches. N winds will remain gusty
coast but shld remain below any advisory lvls.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 2 am mon...

Tuesday through Thursday... Precipitation will end along coastal
areas Tuesday morning as the offshore low moves away. High
pressure will build in from the north and northeast through
midweek with below normal temperatures and dry conditions
expected. Highs will mostly be in the 40s Tuesday, mid upper 40s
Wednesday, but will warm well into the 50s for Thursday ahead
of the approaching storm system. Lows will be in the upper 20s
to lower 30s west, to upper 30s to lower 40s south coast and
outer banks.

Thursday night through Sunday... Another strong and dynamic storm
system will impact eastern nc starting early Friday into next
weekend. Ahead of the storm, temperatures will warm nicely with
lower mid 60s for highs Friday and Saturday as this will be
more of a pacific-originated system. Concerns early on with this
system will be the threat for very heavy rainfall as early
gfs ECMWF qpf already shows 2-4 inches, along with strong gusty
winds. Some convective potential exists Friday, and have
included chance of thunder across the area. Showers will linger
into Saturday and Saturday night in wraparound moisture in the
wake of the departing low to the northeast. Dry weather returns
Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west. Cooler highs
forecast Saturday and Sunday, mainly in the mid to upper 50s,
with lows in the upper 40s Sat morning and upper 30s to lower
40s Sunday morning, with upper 40s outer banks.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight
as of 600 am mon... Expect mainly ifr thru mid late morn with
widespread low clouds and light rain or drizzle. May see some
lower vsbys at times espcly inland as low lvls cool a bit and
could see some snow sleet poss mix with rain. Deeper moisture
will begin to grad shift E later today into the evening with
precip tapering off and ending as CIGS rise to MVFR. Shld see
vfr develop inland this evening however looks like could take
til later tonight for coastal areas to reachVFR. Will cont to
see N winds gust 15 to 25 kts into the aftn with highest
speeds closer to cst.

Long term Tue through Friday ...

as of 2 am mon...VFR Tue through Thu as high pressure passes
through the area. Sub-vfr in numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms Friday. Northwest winds 10-15 knots tue, and
around 5 knots wed, east around 5 knots Thu and southeast 10-15
knots fri.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 600 am mon... Winds over central and NRN coastal waters
have diminished a bit this morn so will lower storm warning and
go with gale... No other changes planned.

Prev disc... Strong N to NE winds cont with low pressure
drifting E of CAPE hat. As upper trof approach today and tonight
secondary low will develop offshore keeping winds gusty. Will
keep storm warning a few more hrs central and NRN coastal wtrs
where gusts AOA 45 kts occurring. Have gales for rest of wtrs
except western rivers where have sca. The tight pres grdnt will
keep strong winds going into tonight with gales cont coastal
wtrs thru the evening and SCA most of the remaining wtrs.

Massive 20 foot seas currently observed off NRN obx with seas 7
to 11 feet SRN tier. With the nne winds remaining gusty expect
large waves to cont thru the period with seas remaining AOA 10
feet outer wtrs thru tonight.

Long term Tue through Fri ...

as of 2 am mon... Gusty northerly winds and rough seas will
continue into Tuesday, driving seas as high as 7-11 feet as
surface low slowly moves along the coast and pulls away during
Tuesday. Winds and seas finally subside to below SCA during
Wednesday afternoon evening as high pressure settles over the
waters, leading to a relatively benign Thursday with E SE winds
at 5-15 knots. As another strong and dynamic storm system
approaches from the west by early Friday, with winds southeast
to south increasing to 20-30 knots and seas building to 5-8 in
the northern waters, 8-12 feet central waters and 7-11 feet
southern waters.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 215 am mon... The prolonged period of strong nne winds will
cont to produce coastal flooding, rough surf and beach erosion.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding, with water level rises 1-4
ft above ground (2-5 ft above normal) expected. This will
produce coastal flood warning type water level rises for ocean
side dare north of hatteras, and downeast carteret through
craven pamlico counties. Coastal flood advisories continue for
soundside hatteras isl and ocracoke. The highest water lvls and
best chc for ocean overwash will occur on oceanside of outer
banks dare (mainly north of CAPE hatteras) during the next high
tide around 9 am. A secondary low will develop offshore of the
carolinas later today into tonight, and may keep gale force
winds and minor coastal flooding issues in play into Tuesday.

Thereafter, conditions should improve into mid week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... High surf advisory until 10 am est this morning for ncz095-104.

Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ncz104.

Wind advisory until 10 am est this morning for ncz095-104.

Coastal flood warning until 7 pm est this evening for ncz103.

High surf advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for ncz103.

Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for ncz103.

Coastal flood warning until 10 am est this morning for
ncz093>095.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz136-
137.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for amz135-150.

Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for amz130-131.

Gale warning until 5 am est Tuesday for amz152-154.

Gale warning until 1 am est Tuesday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Hsa
aviation... Rf hsa
marine... Rf hsa
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi38 min N 15 G 22 46°F 51°F1012.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi32 min N 20 G 24 1011.2 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi38 minN 11 G 204.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F42°F97%1013.6 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi38 minN 138.00 miLight Rain46°F45°F96%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE5NE6NE4E5NE6NE7NE9NE8NE8NE8E9NE8NE9NE9NE10NE11NE10NE13NE15NE14NE14NE17
G24
NE16NE15
2 days agoNW5NW6N7N65NW6N5N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE5E3NE4CalmNE4NE6NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 04:27 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:33 AM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:55 PM EST     1.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.10.70.300.10.40.91.41.92.22.221.61.10.70.30.10.10.40.91.41.71.8

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:25 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:27 AM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:49 PM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.70.40.2000.20.50.91.21.41.41.210.70.40.20.10.10.30.60.91.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.