Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:28PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:46 PM EDT (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:58AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 328 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191916 cca
afdmhx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service newport morehead city nc
316 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 235 pm Thursday... Weak shortwave will move across in dry
nw flow aloft but only result will be some thin high clouds this
evening. Surface high pressure extending across area from w-sw
will produce another fair weather night with dry air mass and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, with min temps ranging
from 45 to 50 inland to around 60 beaches. Patchy fog likely
again late tonight, mainly near rivers.

Short term Friday
As of 235 pm Thursday... Another fair weather day on tap with max
temps 1-2 degrees warmer. Ridging aloft will result in surface
high over appalachians building e-ne, with a minor wind shift to
nw-n over eastern nc. Low level thicknesses rise a few meters,
supporting highs 77-80 inland with mid 70s outer banks.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 245 pm thu... Friday night through Sunday... High pressure
centered over the area will move off the coast this weekend.

High temps will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Sat and sun.

Morning lows will be in the upr 40s mid 50s Sat morning, and
into the 50s Sun morning.

Monday through Thursday... Next significant shortwave cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. The models have
slowed down the progression of the shortwave and cold front,
especially the ecmwf. The upper trough becomes a closed low and
hence a slower solution would be favored. With the run-to-run
inconsistency amongst global model suite having a tough time
resolving amplitude of short wave trough and thus timing of the
associated cold front will continue with just chance pops.

Shower chances will increase Monday into Monday night, going
with 20-30% Monday and 40-50% Monday night. Highest pops are
now Tue into Tue night, though Wed could be quite wet if the
slower ecm verifies, so pops are 40-50 percent through mid week.

Too early to tell if thunder will be a factor, but have
maintained the slight chc thunder mention as at least some weak
instability will be present with decent shear parameters. Monday
looks to be the warmest day with highs in the low 80s inland to
70s beaches. Tue could be equally warm with the slower
advancement of the front. Lows early next week quite mild with
the warm and moist southerly flow with readings mainly in the
60s. Dry and cooler conditions expected behind the front Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s throughout.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through 18z Friday ...

as of 145 pm Thursday...VFR mostly skc conditions prevailing for
most of TAF period with high pressure and dry air mass
persisting across area. Some patchy MVFR to ifr vsbys in
radiational fog late tonight... With best chc of ifr occurring
at pgv due to proximity of river.

Long term Fri night through tue
as of 245 pm thu... PredVFR conditions expected through the
weekend. However, there will be optimal radiational conditions
fri night, and some patchy steam fog may be possible at both
kpgv and kewn with their proximity to rivers. Maybe a better
chance of more widespread overnight early morning fog all taf
sites this weekend as low level moisture increases and skies
remain clear with calm winds each night. Sub-vfr in scattered
showers spreading in from the southwest Monday into Monday night
and Tuesday ahead of the next front approaching from the west.

Isolated thunder possible Tuesday.

Marine
Short term through Friday ...

as of 245 pm Thursday... Weakening pressure gradient has allowed
winds to diminish to 5-15 kt this afternoon with seas mainly
around 4 ft. High pressure centered to W will move e-ne tonight
and Friday, resulting in winds backing to nw-n but speeds
continuing 5-10 kt. Seas will continue to subside to around 3
feet by late Friday.

Long term Fri night through tue
as of 245 pm thu... High pressure over the region Fri night will
shift east. Northeast winds Fri night and Sat will become east
Sunday though speeds only 5-10 kt through the period with seas
2-4 ft bringing excellent boating conditions throughout the
marine zones. Winds will turn southeast then south on Monday as
high pressure moves further offshore. Winds will slowly increase
from 5-10 kt in the morning to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
will be 2-4 ft north of CAPE hatteras and 3-5 ft south. Strong
small craft conditions will develop on the coastal waters Monday
night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead
of the approaching front.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Hsa
aviation... Jbm hsa
marine... Jbm hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi46 min ENE 5.1 G 6 74°F 69°F1022.2 hPa (-0.7)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi46 min NE 8.9 G 11 73°F 1021.6 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NE6
G11
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1 day
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NE8
G11
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G12
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G13
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G12
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N6
G11
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G17
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G18
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G16
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NE9
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N18
G24
N17
G22
N18
G25
N20
G25
N17
G26
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G25
N16
G23
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N14
G21
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G19
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N9
G15
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G16
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G18
NE14
G22
NE11
G16
NE12
G17
N12
G18
NE10
G17
N10
G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi52 minE 310.00 miFair77°F57°F50%1022.3 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi52 minE 510.00 miFair76°F57°F54%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE5E3NE4NE5N3NE4NE4N4NE5N4N4NE4N4NE4NE6NE4NE6E63E3Calm3E3
1 day agoE7E8E4NE6NE5NE7N9N7NE7NE6N6N7NE10N7N6N9NE8NE7NE8N5NE5N8NE9NE6
2 days agoN12
G18
N12
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G29
N9
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N11N12
G19
N11
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G20
N9N11N8N8N9
G18
N9N10N11N10N12
G17
N9NE13
G18
N10NE12NE9NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:13 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:15 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:47 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:32 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.70.30.10.20.61.21.92.42.62.62.21.71.10.60.20.10.30.91.522.32.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:19 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.20.10.10.40.81.21.51.61.51.30.90.60.30.10.10.20.611.31.41.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.