Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

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Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:52PM Sunday August 19, 2018 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1218 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft early, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, then showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 190458
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1258 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore
through the weekend with a weak trough over the central
piedmont. A weak cold front will drop into the northern
forecast area Monday and Monday night, then lift back to the
north Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area late
next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1250 am Sunday... Broken band of thunderstorms, producing
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning across our far northern
and northwestern CWA early this morning. Tweaked pops for this
update, going likely for the north and northwest, and lowering
to chance closer to the coast. With the potential for some
training cells, some minor flooding of low-lying areas will be
possible in some of these storms overnight as precipitable water
from the 00z mhx sounding was 2.28 inches. Severe threat is now
minimal however. Expect a muggy night with lows in the mid to
upper 70s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Monday
As of 345 pm Saturday... Only isolated showers expected Sunday
morning as shortwave energy moves east of the area but broad
cyclonic flow continues aloft with a moist and unstable airmass
remaining in place and expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon with diurnal heating.

With precipitable water values remaining around 2" locally heavy
rainfall remains the primary threat. Could see a few stronger
storms develop but shear gradually weakens through the day and
expect most storms to remain below severe limits. Highs expected
in the upper 80s inland to mid 80s coast.

Long term Monday through Sunday
As of 3 am sat... A mean upper trough is forecast over the
eastern us through the period while low level southerly flow
continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region
with pw values AOA 2". The favorable combination of forcing
aloft and moisture instability in the low levels will result in
unsettled conditions through next week with precipitation
chances at or above normal and temperatures at or slightly below
normal. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase above
climatological norms through most of the period as conditions
become favorable for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Will continue chance to likely pops. Expect
highs in the 80s through the period.

Expect best precip chances to shift towards the coast Sunday
night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A weak front is
forecast to drop southward into the northern forecast area
Monday and Monday night, then lift back north Tuesday. Another
cold front will approach the area late next week. The models are
now bringing the front into the area early Thursday, then
stalling it along or just off the coast into Saturday.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 1255 am Sunday... No big changes to the aviation forecast
as expectVFR conditions to prevail outside of shower tstm
areas, where brief periods of sub-vfr conditions are likely,
especially at kpgv and kiso early this morning. First half of
Sunday looks quiet with limited precip then expect scattered
shra tsra to develop in the aftn again.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 3 am sat... Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
produce sub-VFR conditions at times through the period. In
addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds
and fog early each morning.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 1255 am Sunday... Winds have subsided over the northern
waters, but will hang on to the small craft advisory for another
update to see if this trend continues. Elsewhere, winds continue
at 15-25 knots with a few higher gusts. Seas are running 4-6
feet south of orcacoke. Seas should subside to 2-4 ft north and
3-5 ft south, Sunday. There is some concern that gusts as high
as 25 kt and seas up to 6 ft may linger across the central
waters through the day Sunday and the SCA may need to be
extended.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday ...

as of 3 am sat... Little change to the surface pattern of a
trough of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore into
early next week. A weak front is forecast to drop into the
northern waters Monday and Monday night before lifting back to
the north Tuesday. W SW winds 5-15 kt early Monday with seas 2-5
ft, becoming E SE across the northern waters and remaining sw
south of hatteras. S SW winds return for all waters Tuesday 5-15
kt early increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft
early building to 3-5 ft. Gradient tightens Tue night and wed,
with SW winds 10-20 kt, could see occasional gusts to 25 kt
across the outer central waters with seas briefly building to 6
ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
amz135-150-158.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for amz152-
154-156.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Ctc
short term... Sk
long term... Cqd
aviation... Rf ctc cqd
marine... Ctc sk cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi40 min SW 7 G 13 81°F 82°F1014.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi64 min SW 13 G 18 1014.4 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi70 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F73°F87%1013.7 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi70 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6SW5SW5SW5SW5SW6SW7SW6W7SW7SW5SW4SW4SE7S7SW8S8S7S8S9SW7SW9SW8SW7
2 days agoS3CalmW3SW3CalmSW5W4W3SW8SW65SW7NW7S7S9S6CalmS4S6S6SW5SW4SW5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:54 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.51.81.91.81.51.10.80.50.40.40.71.21.622.22.22.11.71.30.90.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:47 AM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:17 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.70.911.110.80.60.40.30.20.20.40.70.91.21.31.31.21.10.80.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.