Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:27PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:45 AM EDT (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 342 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms...mainly in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...increasing to choppy. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 270737
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
337 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
today. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning. A warm
front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold front
will move through early Saturday.

Near term /through today/
As of 230 am Monday... A mid-level shortwave trough lifts out
this morning with weak ridging building in from the south
through the day. Will continue slight chc pops well inland this
afternoon as a couple models continue to develop a few showers
in this area with sufficient moisture (pw values around 1.1")
and capes around 500-1000 j/kg, however parcels will have to
overcome a subsidence inversion evident in the 00z kmhx and
forecast model soundings. This inversion is strongest closer to
the coast where capes will also be at a minimum so not expecting
any showers to make it east of highway 17 except possibly near
the western albemarle sound. Sfc high pressure will be centered
off the coast bringing warm southerly flow with low level
thicknesses around 1380m yields highs around 75-80 most areas.

Short term /tonight/
As of 3 am Monday... Shortwave ridging migrates eastward
overnight as a more robust shortwave approaches from the west.

Expect increasing clouds but generally dry conditions much of
the overnight, however cannot rule out an isolated shower
approaching far western sections late. Continued mild with lows
in the low to mid 50s.

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/
As of 330 am Monday... Most of the upcoming extended period will
be characterized by near to above normal temperatures with
threats of rain Tuesday afternoon and evening and again on
Friday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Strong mid-level shortwave will
cross the region during the day Tuesday as cold front
approaches from the west. Increasing moisture from the s/sw
along with good instability (sbcape values around 1500 j/kg and
li's around -5) will lead to scattered convection. Given the
instability driven by highs well into the 70s with dewpoints
approaching 60 degrees... The mid-level shortwave and some weak
low-level shear... Most of eastern nc has been placed into a
marginal threat of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening
with the primary threat being strong wind gusts and hail and the
best timing from roughly 3 pm to 10 pm Tuesday. Do not expect
widespread precipitation coverage and have held pop in the 30-40
percent range Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through Thursday... High pressure will build both at
the surface and aloft providing a couple of dry days.

Temperatures will be 3-5 degrees cooler Wednesday then
considerably cooler on Thursday with highs only in the lower 50s
over the northern outer banks to low/mid 60s elsewhere.

Thursday night through Friday night... Deep mid-level trough will
dig into the ohio valley and take on a more negative tilt
Thursday night helping to advect deep moisture into eastern nc
on Friday ahead of cold front. This system looks considerably
wetter than the Tuesday evening system with model QPF in excess
of an inch Friday afternoon and evening. Clouds and
precipitation will hold high temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s Friday and have continued likely pops Friday into
Friday night. Instability looks less than the Tuesday evening
system... So at this point... Would think severe threat to be
limited.

Saturday through Sunday... After some lingering showers Saturday
behind the front... Expect Saturday evening into Sunday to be dry
and seasonable with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the
50s.

Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/
Short term /through Monday night/...

as of 2 am Monday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected through
the TAF period. Patchy light fog development possible during the
pre-dawn hours this morning, especially at oaj and ewn where
dewpoint depressions are only a degree or two. Followed closely
to persistence from last night as conditions are similar.

Generally dry conditions expected today but cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm developing this afternoon across
the coastal plain.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... .

As of 330 am Monday... Sub-vfr conditions will possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening in scattered showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Some of the storms will have the potential to be
locally strong to severe with high wind gusts.VFR conditions
should prevail under the influence of surface and mid-level
ridging Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms Friday will lead to periods of MVFR and possible
ifr ceilings and vsbys.

Marine
Short term /through Monday night/...

as of 215 am Monday... High pressure ridge will continue off the
southeast coast through the period bringing S to SW winds AOB 15
kt across the waters. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft today but
will build tonight as swell from low pressure north of
hispaniola begins to impact the area. Both wavewatch and nwps
show seas building to 3-5 ft with up to 6 ft across the central
waters after midnight and will raise a SCA with the forecast
package.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... .

As of 330 am Monday... Small craft advisories will be in effect
Tuesday south of oregon inlet and will continue into at least
Thursday... Mainly for seas due to swell originating from non-
tropical low pressure east of the bahamas. There will likely be
a lull in the seas Thursday night but expect an increase in wind
wave in gusty SW winds ahead of oncoming cold front Friday
afternoon and evening.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am Tuesday to 11 am edt Thursday
for amz152-154.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc/sk
marine... Ctc/sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi45 min Calm G 1 62°F 57°F1019.6 hPa (-0.6)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 1020.2 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi51 minN 010.00 miShallow Fog49°F48°F100%1020.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi1.9 hrsVar 37.00 miA Few Clouds51°F48°F92%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE55S9
G15
--SW11S9
G16
S8SE12S11S6S4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW5SW3SW4SW8SW7W7SW9
G16
SW9W11S12
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SW11S10S8S7S6CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmNE4Calm3SW10
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S7S8S8S7S8SW6SW6SW3S4S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:01 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:29 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.50-0.2-00.41.11.82.22.42.31.91.30.70.2-0.1-0.10.30.91.62.22.52.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.611.31.41.310.70.3-0-0.2-0.20.10.50.91.31.41.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.