Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:52PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:18 PM EDT (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:28AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1009 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Overnight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern city, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 280205
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1005 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the atlantic will continue through the
weekend producing record or near record highs over eastern north
carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and
cross late Monday night or early Tuesday. High pressure will
build in behind the front Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
As of 10 pm thu... Current zones look good. No changes.

Dampening shortwave energy now over WRN carolinas and ga will
push eastward towards E nc overnight. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms possible overnight. 27/12z
convective and high res model suite show line of precip
associated with this feature having a difficult time pushing
east of the mountains, but models are in good agreement showing
weak activity approaching the coastal plain after 03/04z.

Maintained threat for thunder even through the overnight as
instability actually on the rise overnight with the increasing
low level moisture. Will continue low pops overnight, with best
chances across the northern tier late. Overnight lows not so low
with readings in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
As of 4 pm thu... Building heat dome continues to pump very warm
and humid conditions over E nc on Friday. It will feel more like
july than late april with high temps in the low 90s interior to
near 80 coast. These temps will be nearing record territory for
the area (see climate section below). Td's will also be on the
rise with readings in the 60s to around 70 producing heat indices
in the mid 90s.

Short wave energy continues to migrate through E nc in the
morning with isolated tstorm threat continuing all areas, though
coverage will be limited so most areas remain dry. Building
heights and subsidence in wake of isolated morning activity will
spell for dry conditions in the afternoon so have removed pops.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
As of 300 pm Thursday... Models remain in decent agreement
during period with ridge indicated for weekend, then more
progressive flow for next week. Main changes during period were
to drop pops Saturday and Sunday afternoons and increased to
likely for Monday night. Also raised MAX temps to lower 90s
inland for Saturday.

Friday night through Sunday night... Ridging surface and aloft
will result in warm and dry period with temps 10-15 degrees
above normal. Models have trended drier both days and dropped
pops accordingly. Lows each night in upper 60s to lower 70s.

Highs Saturday in lower 90s inland with around 80 beaches, then
a couple degrees cooler Sunday.

Mon through thu... A cold front will approach from the W Mon and
slowly cross the region Mon night and early tue. Will remain
warm Mon with chc of some convection espcly inland during the
aftn as the front approaches. Models continue to indicate a
decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early Tue with the
front sliding offshore late Tue with lingering shra ending from
w to e. Increased pops to likely for Monday night. Highs mon
will again climb well into the 80s then cool into the 70s tue
behind the front. High pressure is forecast to build into the
area Wed with temps moderating into the low 80s inland. Next
system will approach late Wednesday night and Thursday with
increasing chance pops during period. Lows Wednesday night
around 60 with highs 75-80 Thursday.

Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/
As of 7 pm thu...VFR through Friday. A weak shortwave will move
through E nc late tonight through early Friday with only a very
small chance for a shower or storm, not enough of a threat to
include vcsh in the tafs at this time. May be a period of MVFR
cigs associated with the system late tonight into Friday morning
then skies scatter out toVFR by late morning. Winds continue s
to SW 10-15 kt.

Long term /fri night through Tuesday/...

as of 300 pm Thursday...VFR expected to prevail through Sunday
night with SW flow precluding fog development. Cold front will
be approaching from the W later Mon and will see better
coverage of shra and storms inland with brief subVFR posssible.

High pressure building in behind the front late Tuesday.

Marine
As of 10 pm thu... Zones in good shape. No changes. S to sw
winds will be 10-20 kt with seas of 3 to 6 feet, highest across
the outer SRN and ctrl waters where a SCA is in effect through
the day Friday.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Moderate SW flow of 10 to 20 kts
expected thru Sat night around offshore high pres, then 10-15 kt
Sunday. Approaching cold front will increase winds to 20-25 kt
Sunday night into Monday night, becoming west around 15 kt
behind front Tuesday.

Some lingering seas around 6 ft outer central waters Friday
evening, otherwise heights mainly 3-5 ft over weekend. Heights
building again with increasing winds Sunday night with peak 6-9
ft Monday night, then slowly subsiding Tuesday.

Hydrology
As of 4 pm thu... The tar river in greenville is currently
forecast to crest in moderate flood stage, while contentnea
creek in hookerton is expected to crest in major flood stage
Friday afternoon and evening. The NE CAPE fear river in
chinquapin expected to reach minor flooding and neuse river in
kinston expected to reach moderate flooding. The roanoke river
is forecast to rise over the next several days due to increased
flow out of kerr dam but is expected to remain just below flood
stage. A river flood warning has also been issued for areas
upstream of trenton along the trent river as gauge is about to
reach the 14 foot flood stage.

Climate
Record highs are possible through Sunday as an extremely warm air
mass settles over eastern nc.

Record high temps for 04/28
---------------------------
location temp/year
new bern 92/1957 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 82/1994 (khse asos)
greenville 94/1981 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 83/1985 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 95/1990 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 89/1985 (knca awos)
record high temps for 04/29
---------------------------
location temp/year
new bern 90/1974 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 84/1994 (khse asos)
greenville 91/1981 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 86/2002 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96/1914 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 89/1974 (knca awos)
record high temps for 04/30
---------------------------
location temp/year
new bern 91/1974 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 84/1974 (khse asos)
greenville 92/1957 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 86/1957 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 94/1906 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 90/1987 (knca awos)

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through Friday evening for ncz095-103-
104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Tl
near term... Hsa/tl
short term... Tl
long term... Jbm
aviation... Hsa/tl/jbm
marine... Hsa/tl/jbm
hydrology... Mhx
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi48 min S 7 G 8 72°F 69°F1013.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi78 min S 9.9 G 11 73°F 1013.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi24 minSSW 710.00 miFair72°F64°F76%1014.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi84 minS 77.00 miClear72°F61°F68%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S6S4S5SW5SW3S3S3CalmS7SW12SW10
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1 day agoW6W5SW5W4W4W3W3SW5W4W4W6W6NW7W9W85W4SW7W7S8S6S7S8S6
2 days agoE11
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S6N9N6NW6W6Calm3W3CalmNE3E6E7SW3E4W3SW7SW6S3CalmSW7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 04:28 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.30.60-0.3-0.30.10.81.52.12.42.31.91.30.70.1-0.2-0.30.10.81.62.32.72.8

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.20.70.2-0.1-0.3-0.300.40.91.31.41.310.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.300.511.51.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.