Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:01PM Monday November 19, 2018 2:55 PM EST (19:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 2:49AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 100 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
This afternoon..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. A chance of rain early, then a slight chance of rain late.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Isolated showers.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough. A chance of rain.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern city, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191811
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
111 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak trof of low pressure along the coast will move east this
afternoon and tonight. A cold front will pass through Tuesday.

High pressure will then build into the region through Friday.

The next storm system will affect the region this weekend.

Near term this afternoon
As of 111 pm mon... Lingering -ra dz will move off the coast this
afternoon, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies for most, though
some will see some patchy sunshine before the day is over.

As of 1010 am mon... Widespread ra continues this morning for
all but southeastern portions of the fa. Will continue seeing
area of decent WAA aloft impinge on upper wave through the
morning, then lift wave moves off to the northeast and offshore
by later this afternoon. Likely cat pops continue for eastern
half through the early afternoon then taper off thereafter.

Previous discussion... As of 7 am mon... Made some adjustment to
pops based on regional radar loop. Back edge of precip presently
in far southeast nc moving northeast. Maintained chance to
likely pops through mid- morning, then quickly taper through the
remainder of the morning into this afternoon, faster than
earlier thought. No change to temps. High temps will range from
the upper 50s lower 60s across the northern tier, to mid 60s
south coast and southern outer banks.

Short term tonight
As of 2 am mon... Skies will clear out this evening as the
coastal trof exits to the east. Boundary layer moisture will
remain high however. Patchy late night early am fog possible.

Lows in the upper 40s inland to lower mid 50s southern outer
banks and south coast.

Long term Tuesday through Monday
As of 230 am mon... Mostly quiet weather is expected through
Friday as the flow aloft remains quasi-zonal through late week
with prevailing surface high pressure in place though
temperatures will be below normal. The models are starting to
signal more amplification in the upper flow next beginning this
weekend into early next week as the anomalously strong
scandinavian upper ridge retrogrades towards greenland
potentially setting up a blocking -nao -ao pattern d8+ which
could result in a active and stormy pattern next week.

Tuesday... A cold front with limited moisture will move through
the area. Temps are forecast to warm into the 60s ahead of the
front. Will continue slight chance pops though precipitation
amounts will be light.

Wednesday through Friday... High pressure will build over the
area from the north through the period producing cool dry
weather across eastern nc. Highs generally will in the 50s and
lows in the 30s. A reinforcing dry cold front will move through
wed night into early Thursday and 850mb temps drop below zero
across the northern half of the area. Thanksgiving day looks
like the coldest day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s,
coolest across the northern half of the forecast area, combined
with a brisk nne wind. A hard freeze inland will be possible thu
night- early Fri morning. Could see a few coastal showers fri
as the flow becomes easterly and moisture increases along the se
coast.

Saturday through Sunday... Eastern nc will initially be on the
warm side of the upper air amplification evolving eastern upper
trough. Temps should warm well into the 60s both days but along
with the warmth will come wetter conditions. Surface low
development is being indicated in the gom fri, with the low
moving NE through the carolinas Sat with the potential for
significant rainfall and perhaps a severe weather threat fri
night into sat. Still quite a ways out with significant model
differences between the GFS and ecmwf. Will cap pops for Sat at
high chance for now, though did add sc TSTM mention.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 111 pm mon... Lingering low level moisture remains behind
departing area of rain. CIGS should eventually scour to MVFR and
possibly someVFR before fog low stratus redevelop tonight, as
looks like a good set up for lifr conditions with some possible
areas of dense fog development. Conditions look to finally
improve after sunrise as SW winds inc and scour out the fog low
stratus. Some vcsh will occur mainly before 18z tomorrow due to
a cold front that will be passing through in the afternoon.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 230 am mon... Lingering sub-vfr ceilings possible Tuesday
morning, then likely lifting toVFR. Isolated showers tue, then
predVFR and dry conditions expected through Friday.

Marine
Short term through Monday night ...

as of 2 am mon... Zones look good. No changes. Weak trof of low
pressure just off the coast will move east later today and
tonight. Very loose pressure gradient across the marine zones
today will result in winds no higher than 5-10 knots, with seas
2-4 feet. Tonight, the pressure gradient begins to tighten up a
bit ahead of the next front. Winds will becoming west increase
to 10-15 knots later tonight, except over the waters north of
oregon inlet where winds take longer to increase, remaining less
than 10 knots. Seas tonight will continue 2-4 feet throughout.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 230 am mon... SCA conditions likely Thursday and Thursday
night, with gusty N NE winds and elevated seas. Strong winds
and dangerous seas possible this weekend with the potential for
gale force winds sat. Westerly flow Tue 10-15 kt ahead of a
cold front will become nw-n 15-20 kt behind the front late in
the day into Tue night. 2-4 ft seas will build to 4-5 feet over
the outer waters late Tue and Tue night. Wed, winds will be n-nw
10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft as high pressure builds
over the waters. A cold front will move through the waters wed
night and early Thursday with strong high pressure building in
from the north. Gusty N NE winds 20-25 kt will develop, allowing
seas to build to 4-8 ft Thu and Thu night. E NE flow 10-20 kt
Friday, strongest south of CAPE hatteras. Elevated seas 4-6 ft
could drop below 6 ft Fri afternoon for a brief period before
building back above 6 ft Fri night.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa tl
short term... Hsa
long term... Jme cqd
aviation... Cqd tl
marine... Cqd hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi37 min N 8 G 8.9 59°F 60°F1017.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi55 min N 9.9 G 11 1017.5 hPa (-2.9)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi61 minN 48.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1018.5 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi61 minN 610.00 miOvercast60°F55°F86%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmN3N3E3S4NE4N5NE4NE5NE4NE6NE5N4
1 day agoNE4E4SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmE3NE6NE5E4NE5NE4NE4NE5NE6CalmNE6NE8E7E8NE5N4W4
2 days agoW7W5W7W3CalmS3CalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3N4N8N5E4NE7NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:48 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:25 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.61.11.522.22.221.61.20.80.50.40.50.91.31.822.11.91.61.10.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:48 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:20 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:33 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.40.711.21.31.31.210.70.50.30.20.30.50.81.11.31.31.20.90.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.