Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:27PM Sunday January 21, 2018 1:17 PM EST (18:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 9:49PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1226 Pm Est Sun Jan 21 2018
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat late.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Dominant period 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern city, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211720
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1220 pm est Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will slide offshore tonight and Monday. A cold front will move
through Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the northwest late next week
then pass offshore next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1210 pm Sunday... Fcst on track with mainly sunny skies
except for some high clouds skirting the imd central and srn
cst. Temps already lower 60s most inland spots and shld rise to
mid upr 60s this aftn with 50s beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 350 am Sunday... With axis of surface ridge offshore, the
low level flow will become more southerly tonight. Temperatures
will moderate a few degrees with lows by Monday morning in the
upper 30s over most areas, with lower 40s outer banks. Winds
will remain light under clear skies except for some occasional
cirrus.

Long term Monday through Sunday
As of 4 am Sunday... Mild weather is expected through the
extended period. A cold front will bring a threat of showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. Otherwise dry
conditions are expected for the extended period.

Monday and Monday night... High pressure weakens across the area
as an upper low lifts from the central plains toward the great
lakes while the attendant cold front pushes from the miss river
valley early Monday to the appalachians by late Monday night.

Increasing southerly flow brings low level WAA and expect
increasing stcu across the region through the period. Some
models, ECMWF and NAM especially, suggest enough moisture to
bring a few light showers to the region, mainly southern section
Monday afternoon, spreading across most of the region Monday
night and have slight chance to low end chance pops. Temps
will be very mild with highs Monday in the mid 60s inland,
perhaps upper 60s southern sections, and around 60 along the
coast. Temps Monday night remain mild as southerly flow
continues to increase and expect lows in the low to mid 50s.

Tuesday... A robust frontal system approaches the region Tuesday
and is progged to push across the region Tuesday afternoon.

Models have trended slightly slower with the progression of the
front over the past several runs but the 00z 21 models are in
generally good agreement with the timing. It will be a high
shear low CAPE scenario with models indicating 0-6km bulk shear
up to around 70kt but very little CAPE per the gfs ECMWF while the
nam has a little higher CAPE values to around 500 j kg. Cannot
rule out an isolated storm bringing strong wind gusts but with
better forcing for ascent displaced to the north expect the
overall severe threat to be minimal at this time. Continued very
mild with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 inland but cooler
water temps will hold temps in the low to mid 60s along the
coast.

Tuesday night through Saturday..Broad upper troughing continues
across the eastern CONUS with high pressure across the southern
southern plains Wednesday building into the region through the
end of the work week. Upper ridging builds in Friday into
Saturday with high pressure sliding offshore by Saturday with
return flow bringing milder conditions to the region. Expect
dry conditions with mainly clear skies much of the period.

Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low mid 50s
and lows in the low mid 30s, warming to around 60 Saturday.

Coastal sections will be cooler with highs mainly in the
mid upper 40s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Aviation 17z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 1210 pm Sunday... MainlyVFR thru period however there is
a threat for some fog late tonight. High pres will drift slowly
e tonight but cont to influence the region with mclr skies.

Dewpts have risen signif past 24 hrs and expect overnight temps
to drop to dewpts late. With calm winds could SE some patchy fog
develop after 06z. Given guidance not indicating much will just
show high end MVFR for now. Fog that develops will burn off mon
morn withVFR thru mid aftn. Late Mon could see some MVFR cigs
start to spread N over SRN tier as moisture increases on
backside of high pres.

Long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 430 am Sunday... Periods of MVFR CIGS and an isolated
shower Monday night. A strong frontal system pushes across the
region Tuesday with a period of sub-vfr conditions and gusty
southerly winds expected across rtes. Pred-vfr expected Tuesday
night through Thursday as high pressure builds toward the
region.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 1210 pm Sunday... Winds cont to diminish and expect light
winds and 1 to 3 foot seas rest of the day with high pres over
the region.

Prev disc... Minimal changes needed to the current
marine forecast. Good boating conditions for late january
expected today and tonight as the axis of the high pressure
ridge moves from west to east across our region. Winds will be
westerly at 5-15 knots, although some gusts to 20 knots are
possible early this morning off the central waters. By this
afternoon and tonight, expect winds to gradually become more
e SE at 5-10 knots. Seas will be around 2 feet today, except 3-5
feet over the central waters early today. Seas will be 2-3 feet
in all areas for tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 430 am Sunday... Good boating conditions continue Monday
with winds around 10 kt or less, gradually trending to S se
through the day and seas around 1-2 ft. Sly flow increases
Monday night and Tuesday ahead of strong frontal system and
expect ssw winds increasing to around 20-30 kt with gale force
gusts possible by Tuesday morning and seas peaking around 6-11
ft Tuesday afternoon. The front pushes across the waters late
Tuesday with winds becoming W NW around 10-20 kt Tuesday night
and early Wednesday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft Wednesday
morning. Winds diminish 5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon but a mid
level disturbance moves across the region Wednesday night that
will serve to increase wind back to 10-20 kt into Thursday
morning before becoming N around 5-15 kt Thursday afternoon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Rf
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk
aviation... Rf sk
marine... Rf ctc sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi47 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 52°F 46°F1023.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi77 min W 4.1 G 5.1 1024.5 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi23 minWNW 610.00 miFair64°F43°F46%1023.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi2.4 hrsNW 37.00 miClear55°F37°F51%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13W10
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W8W7SW4S6SW5SW5SW6SW4SW5SW6SW6SW43W4W4W4SW3W3NW4NW3Calm
1 day agoW8W5W8SW7SW6CalmS6SW5W4SW4SW7SW4SW6SW4SW4SW5SW3SW5SW5SW4SW5SW7SW7SW11
2 days agoW9W10W9W11W9W7W7W4W6W5W6W4SW4SW3CalmCalmW4SW4CalmW8W5W5W4SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:24 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:19 AM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:56 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:45 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.410.60.200.10.40.81.41.8221.71.30.80.40.1-00.10.511.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:15 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:10 PM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:56 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.80.50.30.1-000.20.50.81.11.21.210.80.50.20-000.30.60.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.