Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday July 22, 2018 6:21 PM EDT (22:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 303 Pm Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern city, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221947
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
347 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low
pressure to the west and southwest through mid to late week.

Associated warm and moist southerly flow will produce above
normal chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least
Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 330 pm Sunday... Only widely scattered to scattered
convection expected for the bulk of the evening as water vapor
loops shows plentiful dry air rotating into the region from the
southwest. Well-defined shortwave on water vapor imagery
crossing the tennessee valley will continue to move ese and will
likely enhance convective development later tonight into the
morning hours of Monday. Precipitable water is forecast to
increase to over 2 inches by early Monday and the nssl-wrf and
hrrr models have strong signals for the development of training
cells which could lead to an enhanced flood threat Monday
morning. After collaboration with surrounding offices, decided
to hold off on a flash flood watch for now, but one may be
needed later on tonight. Most the coastal sections are under a
"slight" risk of excessive rainfall tonight and Monday with a
"marginal" severe threat this evening. With moderate shear and
decent instability, any developing storms could become strong to
severe, but believe coverage will be minimal until late
tonight, when the heavy rain threat increases. Warm and muggy
temperatures in the low mid 70s expected overnight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 335 pm Sunday... A plume of deep moisture with sse S low-
level flow, coupled with a stalled frontal boundary, will set
the stage for a wet day on Monday. Will have likely to
categorical pops for Monday as waves of showers and
thunderstorms develop and move from south to north through the
day. With precipitable water values above 2 inches and training
likely, some localized heavy rainfall amounts will be possible.

Cloud cover and rain will hold MAX temperatures in the lower 80s
in most areas for Monday.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 300 am Sunday... A warm and moist southerly flow will
persist through this week due to lingering low pressure to the
west and high pressure over the western atlantic ocean, leading
to unsettled weather conditions from through much of next week.

Monday night through Wednesday... Deep, warm, and moist
southerly flow will persist through much of the upcoming week
between broad low pressure aloft over the deep south states and
western atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for
widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during
peak heating and when periodic shortwaves move through mean flow
aloft. Timing of midlevel features remains the unknown at this
time. The highest chances for rain will be roughly Monday night
through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up over eastern
nc with an elongated axis of very high pwats stretching from
the tropical western atlantic ocean. Given persistence amongst
guidance over the past several runs, have increased pops
slightly during this time frame, with the potential for 2 to 5
inches of rainfall, highest closer to the coast, Monday night
through Wednesday. Will continue to highlight flood potential in
hwo. While moisture will be abundant, instability and shear
will be marginal for supporting widespread severe convection;
thus expect diurnally-driven isolated severe storm potential
each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday... The persistent upper trough to our
west finally fills and shifts northeast from the deep south
states towards the mid-atlantic, with high pressure continuing
offshore. Another deep trough digs into the northern great lakes
region, which will shift the moisture advection from S SE to
southwesterly. Expect convection to be more diurnally focused
each day with a more typical summertime pattern.

Temperatures Monday night through Wednesday will be a few
degrees below climatological normals, ranging from highs in the
mid to upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s for the coast. Temps
will rise to average late july temperatures by Thursday through
the weekend. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s
throughout the week.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Short term through 18z Monday ...

as of 200 pm Sunday...VFR continues this afternoon into the
evening. Some showers and tsra ongoing in the vicinity of pgv
this afternoon but should stay north of the airfield. Mid-level
dry slot will otherwise prevent scattered to broken coverage of
convection until later tonight as southerly flow brings deep
moisture into the area. Brief periods of sub-vfr are likely with
directly impacted sites.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Periodic sub-vfr conditions are
expected through Thursday as an unsettled pattern develops
across eastern nc. Southerly flow will persist through much of
next week. Lowered ceilings and visibilities will be more likely
Monday night through Wednesday, then during the overnight hours
for locations that receive precipitation and that can become
calm decouple prior to sunrise early each morning.

Marine
Short term tonight and Monday ...

as of 345 pm Sunday... Winds continue to increase at mid-
afternoon with most of the platforms reporting southerly winds
in the 15-25 knot winds. South winds of 15-25 knots will
continue through Monday with a few gusts to 30 knots. Seas have
been slow to respond as current observations showing 4-5 feet,
but all wave guidance showing seas building to 5-9 later tonight
and through the day Monday. No changes needed to current
advisories.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 345 am Sunday... SCA conditions expected to start the week
with SE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-8 ft. Low end SCA conditions
are expected over the waters from Tuesday through Thursday when
moderate S SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low pressure well
west of the waters and high pressure across the western atlantic
ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes
of the coastal waters. While boating conditions will be poor for
most of the period, conditions will be exacerbated by a
prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms from approximately
Monday night through Wednesday. Winds and seas will eventually
fall below SCA levels by late week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt Thursday for amz150-152-
154-156-158.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag ms
marine... Dag ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi40 min S 14 G 18 83°F 83°F1009.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi82 min S 19 G 21 1009.5 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi28 minS 8 G 209.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F78°F77%1008.7 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi2.5 hrsS 13 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F79°F85%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S4S6S6S5S4S5S6SW5S4S5SE4CalmS5SE8S13
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1 day agoE7NE8NE11E8E3E4NE6SE5E3E6E6NE4NE5NW5NW4N6NW6W9NW11W9W10
G18
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2 days agoE7E10E5E5E4NE5NE4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5NE7E3E7E6E7E6E7NE7E4E8
G15
E8
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.81.21.61.81.81.61.20.90.50.20.20.40.81.31.82.12.22.11.91.510.6

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:46 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.30.50.70.9110.90.70.40.20.10.10.20.40.81.11.31.41.31.10.90.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.