Friday, March24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:32PM Friday March 24, 2017 7:54 PM EDT (23:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:05AMMoonset 3:06PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 241849
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
250 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

An area of high pressure anchored offshore will extend west into
central nc through Saturday. A weakening upper disturbance will
cross our region on Sunday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 250 pm Friday...

air mass modification underway as sly low level flow has advected a
warmer and slightly wetter air mass into central nc. This is evident
by dewpoints currently in the 40s (versus the teens and 20s from
Thursday). Temperatures have rebounded into the 60s, near 70 over
the sandhills. Extensive mid level cloudiness which covered much of
the western piedmont this morning has thinned out, while scattered-
broken CU has developed, primarily south of highway 64. An area of
high pressure at the surface was anchored offshore. Circulation
around this feature was ushering the warm moist air into our region.

Aloft, an area of high pressure stretched from the northern gulf
into the carolinas.

These features will drift slowly east and weaken with time tonight
into Saturday. With the uptick in low level moisture, there is a
higher threat for patchy fog and/or low clouds late tonight into
early Saturday morning. The moist layer is relatively shallow and
the lift is very weak, so no precip should occur. Overnight
temperatures will be rather mild compared to recent nights. Lows
should be in the upper 40s to around 50.

Short term /Saturday and Saturday night/
As of 250 pm Friday...

warming trend continues Saturday as the high continues to drift away
from our region, while an area of low pressure lifts from the
southern plains into the mid ms valley. The approach of this feature
will deepen our SW flow, increasing the moisture advection. This
will lead to increasing cloudiness. While the atmosphere moistens,
little if any lifting mechanisms noted to generate precip, aside
from afternoon heating, Saturday through Saturday evening. Still,
could see an isolated shower or two over the southern piedmont but
probability and coverage is too remote at this time to mention in
the forecast. The warming air mass will translate to afternoon
temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.

Clouds will thicken and lower across the area Saturday night. This
blanket of clouds will trap the heat gained Saturday, resulting in
overnight temperatures in the 50s. A lead s/w ahead of the main low
pressure system over the mid ms valley will support a band of
showers that will cross the mountains overnight, and may be in
vicinity of the yadkin river just prior to daybreak. Will retain the
slight chance pop over our western periphery late Saturday night.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/
As of 240 pm Friday...

a deep low pressure system will lift northeast into the great lakes
Sunday. Its associated cold front will be weakening and essentially
stalling as it edges up against the mountains Sunday and the parent
low moves further northeast. This will result in central nc being
nicked by only a glancing blow from the stronger dynamic regime
associated with the upper system. So, despite our increasingly warm
and moist airmass, convection will be favored northwest, with
progressively smaller chances heading southeast. Some areas east of
i95 may not see any activity at all. Will also maintain small
chances for thunder west during the afternoon as instability will be
modest and the east will be strongly capped in proximity to the
bermuda high offshore. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s, but the
northeast may struggle to reach upper 60s due to heavier cloud
coverage and potential shower activity.

Warm and moist airmass remains in place in return flow around the
bermuda high with isolated convection on Monday and highs mostly in
the upper 70s. A rather weak, but more southerly tracking short wave
will be approaching from the west on Tuesday to increase our chance
of convection somewhat due to its moving through during the heat of
the day. Not seeing forcing that would readily signal potentially
strong or well-organized convection, though, so will maintain 40-50
chance pops. Tuesdays highs will again climb way up into the 70s,
with some lower 80s likely across the southern tier. Highs will
again reach upper 70s Wednesday, but only isolated showers look
doable in weak westerly low level flow and upper ridging over the

Cooler high pressure makes a surge down the atlantic coast on
Thursday, with a backdoor cold front threatening to make it as far
south as central nc, but low confidence in picking a model solution
at this point. We will concurrently have a more southerly low
pressure system taking shape over the southern midwest which would
feed moisture into the frontal zone and potentially give us a rain
period Thursday night and Friday.

Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/
As of 100 pm Friday...

high pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually weaken and
drift east through Saturday night. This will allow an area of low
pressure to approach from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The
southerly flow ahead of the low will advect a moist air mass into
our region, leading to probabilities of MVFR conditions due to low
clouds and fog late tonight-early Saturday morning, and again
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The subVFR parameters may
linger well into the morning hours before lifting intoVFR criteria
during the afternoon. The threat for showers appear minimal through
Saturday, though the potential appears higher for late Saturday
night into Sunday.

Periods of MVFR/ifr ceilings and visibility due to fog appear
probable Sunday night through Wednesday. The highest threat for
scattered showers will be on Tuesday when another upper disturbance
passes primarily to our north.

Rah watches/warnings/advisories

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Mlm
aviation... Wss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi84 min SSE 4.1 G 7 72°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi58 minSSW 410.00 miFair68°F45°F44%1029 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi58 minSW 710.00 miFair68°F46°F47%1029.7 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi56 minWSW 810.00 miFair70°F45°F41%1027.4 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi3 hrsSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F45°F38%1028.6 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi58 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds71°F43°F37%1027.4 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi74 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F45°F40%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmSE7SE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4SE4SE7S12
1 day agoCalmNE6NE7E5E5E4NE3E4NE5NE5N4CalmNE3E9E10
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW23

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 12:29 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:10 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:08 PM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.