Thursday, May24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:21PM Thursday May 24, 2018 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:38PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 241858
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
255 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

A weak surface boundary will remain stationary across across south
carolina through Friday. Meanwhile an area of high pressure to our
northeast will extend across central nc tonight, then drift offshore
Friday. The area of high pressure offshore coupled with an area of
low pressure moving northward through the eastern gulf signal a
return to a moist and unsettled weather pattern for central
nc through the holiday weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 255 pm Thursday...

through mid evening, the highest threat for scattered convection
will be confined to the far southern counties. This area is closest
in proximity to a stalled sfc front across south carolina, plus
better deeper moisture reside over this region. Forcing will have to
rely on heating as support aloft pretty negligible. Steering flow
very weak as the layer from sfc-850mb predominately ely, while the
flow above 700mb west-nw. Thus, the showers and storms that develop
may exhibit little motion. Since the atmosphere is still fairly wet
(precipitable water around 1.75 inches), potential exists for
localized flooding where the heavier rain rates occur. This threat
should be confined to scotland, richmond and anson counties.

Tonight, scattered convection primarily over the southern piedmont
will diminish with the loss of heating. The presence of the
lingering boundary immediately to our south and available moisture
will warrant a small threat of a shower overnight. Skies should vary
from mostly clear across the NE half to variably cloudy across the
far south and west, especially overnight as a layer of low stratus
should develop over the western piedmont prior to daybreak.

Overnight temperatures generally in the 60-65 degree range with a
few upper 50s possible at the normally cooler locations in the

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 255 pm Thursday...

Friday and Friday night, while a mid level S W ridge will extend
across central nc, the attendant sfc high will drift offshore
Friday. The resultant return flow from the south-southeast will
increase the low level moisture, initially in the west, then
spreading east into the coastal plain by evening. This increase in
moisture, along with a slightly unstable air mass as a result of
heating, will support the development of isolated-scattered
convection during the mid-late afternoon hours. The chances for
convection appear greater over the western and southern piedmont,
dwindling quickly to the east-northeast over the northeast
piedmont northern coastal plain where the atmosphere will be drier
and not as unstable. Skies should remain mostly sunny-partly cloudy
across the east half, permitting this region to warm solidly into
the mid 80s. Across the west, variably cloudy skies and
isolated scattered afternoon convection should keep temperatures a
tad cooler, mainly in the lower 80s.

The bulk of the convection will diminish with loss of heating.

However, a minor S W lifting nwd on the backside of the retreating
s W ridge may trigger a few showers late Friday night in vicinity of
the pee dee lower yadkin river. Otherwise it will be notably humid
across the eastern counties as sly flow will advect the warm humid
air mass back into this area. Under variably cloudy skies, overnight
temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 225 pm Thursday...

a tropical airmass will be over central north carolina for the
entire long range period. In addition, a tropical system will be
moving through the eastern gulf of mexico over the holiday weekend
and into the northern gulf states early next week. With that in
mind, will include a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
entire period across the area. Model guidance suggests the highest
chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and
again Wednesday into Thursday. General rainfall amounts in the long
range will average one to two inches. However, with abundant
tropical moisture in place and a tropical system nearby, any
convection will have the potential to produce torrential downpours
and localized flooding.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 125 pm Thursday...

whileVFR parameters will persist over the northern TAF sites
through this evening, low endVFR MVFR conditions are probable in
vicinity of kfay through this evening due to ceilings and scattered

Late tonight,VFR conditions appear likely at krwi, kfay and krdu
thanks to an area of high pressure. There may be a brief instance of
MVFR ifr ceilings at kfay between 09z-13z Friday. Over the western
piedmont, including kint and kgso, circulation around the sfc high
should advect low level moisture and cause a deck of low stratus to
develop, mainly between 10z-15z Friday. This stratus deck should
gradually lift into a scattered CU field by mid day.

The weather pattern will become increasingly unsettled from Saturday
through Tuesday across central nc, with a high probability of MVFR
ceilings along with scattered-widespread showers and a few

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Franklin
aviation... Wss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi65 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 76°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi39 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F71°F84%1020.2 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi39 minE 910.00 miA Few Clouds84°F66°F57%1020.1 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi39 minE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F63°F50%1018.7 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi43 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast80°F73°F79%1018.3 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi39 minENE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds86°F65°F51%1018.7 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi60 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F72°F73%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW7SW9CalmSE3CalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNE3E8E8E8E6E8E5N6
1 day agoSW9SW10SW8SW8SW8SW6SW7SW6W3S3CalmCalmSW7SW10SW8W10SW9W12W5W8W8
2 days ago------------CalmNE3NE5S3S5SW5SW7SW7SW8SW6W6SW7SW8W7S4S9S10S7

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:44 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:42 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.