Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:30PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:28 PM EST (01:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 170053
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
740 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

A strong arctic cold front will approach from the west, crossing our
region very late tonight through Wednesday morning. High pressure
will build into the carolinas Thursday, then remain anchored over
the deep south through the weekend, leading to a warming trend.

Near term through Wednesday night
As of 740 pm Tuesday...

upper trof edging east is right on track, with mid cloudiness
reaching the triad during the past hour. Timing of the precip is on
track as well, with latest hrrr soundings in the triad indicative of
saturation in the -12 to -18 growth zone a little before midnight,
with the triangle area following suit a couple of hours later.

Initial light precip will begin to blossom behind the front as it
moves into the western piedmont after midnight, but may not reach
the ground for a couple of hours afterwards, with coverage
continuing to spread east through morning. Any changes prior to
arrival of 00z guidance will be to update hourly grid trends.

Previous discussion:
summary and main points:
nwp models have trended wetter over the past couple of runs, which
has boosted forecast confidence that the strong dynamic support
aloft associated with the vigorous shortwave trough will support a
quick burst of significant snowfall across central nc between 12 to
18z Wednesday, with an increasing likelihood of seeing a broad snow
swath of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of 5 to 6
possible across the interior portions of the rah cwa. As such, have
upgraded all but the 2 most SE counties(sampson, wayne)to a winter
storm warning. Due to the west-east difference in onset and ending
timing of precip, will segment the warning advisories maps, with an
earlier start in the west and later ending in the east.

the well-advertised blast of arctic air, that's currently supporting
daytime highs in the teens and 20s across central and eastern tn, is
well on it's way. There has been little change in the model timing
of the frontal passage through the area; between 06z-09 through the
nw piedmont, to 12 to 15z across the southern coastal plain. On the
heels of this front, the high-amplitude positively-tilted trough
that currently extends from SE canada back into the southern plains,
will assume a neutral tilt as it traverses the region on Wednesday,
a signal of the strengthening deep layer lift(coupled ascent from
strong S W dynamics, vigorous jet divergence and deep layer f-gen)as
depicted by bufkit soundings that shows a classic cross-hair
signature(moderate to strong lift intersecting with the dendritic
growth zone(-10c to -18c))across central nc between 12 to 18z. As
such, expect the ana-frontal precip band to fill in and blossom
across the area during that time frame. So, it's not a surprise to
see that models have trended wetter over the last 24 hours, with
average liquid equivalents now in the 0.20 to 0.40"range.

While we could see a brief period of rain or rain-snow mix at onset,
especially east of the us 1 where precip will move in after
daybreak, deep layer cooling will result in a quick change-over to
snow, with high snow:liquid ratios of 12:18 expected in the 3 to 6
hour window of strongest forcing, similar to the upstream ratios we
saw across middle tn and central-eastern tn earlier this morning.

This would support a broad swath of 2 to 4 inches(0.5-1.0" hour
rate)across interior sections of the state, with localized higher
amounts of 5 to 6 inches certainly possible given the favorable set
up for banding precip. Elsewhere, along the western and SE fringes,
1 to 3 inches are possible. Aggressive drying aloft will overwhelm
the area as early as late morning in the west to mid afternoon in
the east. This would support a brief transition of freezing drizzle
before ending, resulting in only trace ice amounts. The drying and
subsidence aloft is so strong and abrupt, that western portions of
the forecast could see sunshine by the afternoon, indeed a quick
hitting system.

Additionally, the arctic high building in the southern us in the
wake of this system will support very cold temperatures and wind
chills Wednesday and Wednesday night. Daytime highs will likely
occur during the early morning at most locations, with wet-bulb
cooling and CAA leading to a quick drop into the 20s by midday. Nwly
wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts will make it feel even colder, producing
wind chills in the teens and 20s.

Lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the teens, with wind
chill values approaching the single digits across much of central
nc. Given these frigid temperatures, any snow or slush on roads and
bridges overpasses will freeze, making for treacherous road
conditions Thursday morning.

Short term Thursday and Thursday night
As of 200 pm Tuesday...

in the wake of the exiting system thu, expect blustery and cold
conditions with afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal.

Dependent upon the extent of the snowpack, min temps Thu night may
end up a few degrees colder, possibly ranging from the mid teens to
around 20.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 200 pm Tuesday...

the extended forecast will feature a warming trend across the
carolinas as the upper level pattern transitions from a highly
amplitude pattern with a west coast ridge and east coast trough, to
one of feature a broad, low amplitude trough across the entire u.S.

Moderation in the atmosphere begins in earnest Friday and continue
through the weekend. The dry air mass coupled with a wly flow should
result in a wide diurnal temperature swing of 25-30 degrees. Highs
Friday will be close to normal in the upper 40s and lower 50s, then
warm well into the 50s Saturday, and near 60-lower 60s Sunday.

The mild conditions will persist into early next week as the flow in
the mid-upper levels remain zonal. An upper level disturbance will
be lifting well to our NW Monday. This system's attendant cold front
will approach and cross our region Monday and Monday night,
increasing the threat for scattered showers.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Monday
As of 640 pm Tuesday...

24-hour TAF period: no major changes aviation-wise for the next 24
hours. Still expect snow to develop across central nc tonight,
reducing ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR ifr range along
with it. Light and variable winds early tonight will become north-
northwesterly and gusty Wednesday morning into the afternoon. -kc
previous discussion: precipitation falling through the dry sub cloud
layer will initially evaporate before reaching the surface but will
aid to lower ceilings into the MVFR category after 06z Wed in the
triad, and between 09z-13z elsewhere across central nc. The
precipitation will initially start out as rain but will quickly
change over to snow. The snow will pick-up in intensity across the
west after 09z, and across the east after 12z, with visibilities 1-
2sm common. The snow will taper off over the western piedmont after
15z, and by early-mid afternoon across the eastern counties. Sfc
winds will be light and variable through 10z, then increase out of
the north with gusts 18-23kts probable. -wss
looking ahead: aviation conditions will improve west-to-east late by
Wednesday night as a drier colder air mass overspreads the region.

Vfr parameters expected Wednesday night through Sunday. -wss

Rah watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for ncz078-

Winter storm warning from 11 pm this evening to 4 pm est Wednesday
for ncz007-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084.

Winter storm warning from 4 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for ncz008>011-

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Cbl mlm
short term... Wss
long term... Wss
aviation... Kc wss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi59 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 38°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair35°F25°F69%1029.1 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair36°F24°F62%1029.4 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair34°F25°F71%1028 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair37°F27°F67%1028 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair37°F25°F64%1027.6 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi54 minSSE 310.00 miFair40°F26°F57%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm----------------CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmCalm--CalmSW3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE5NE4NE4NE4NE7NE6N5N5N6N5N7N5N10N6N5N6NW5CalmN5NW4NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN7N9N8N8N9N8N10N10N12N9N8N9N10N13NE10N9E7NE8NE5NE6NE6NE4NE3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Tue -- 02:12 AM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:50 PM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:11 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Tue -- 03:10 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:33 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:15 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.