Tuesday, March20, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:29PM Tuesday March 20, 2018 12:04 AM EDT (04:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 9:50PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 200250
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1050 pm edt Mon mar 19 2018

A warm front will lift northward tonight into southeastern nc. Low
pressure will track NE along the front late tonight and Tuesday.

This will push a cold front offshore late Tuesday. This will be
followed by a cold upper level low pressure that will track east
across the area Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1050 pm Monday...

little change required to the near term forecast.

Rain showers will increase in coverage through 07z in advance of a
mid level S W and attendant sfc low. 00z upper air analysis depict
strong mid-upper level jet crossing the tn valley deep south,
placing central nc in a zone of decent speed convergence. With the
lift increasing into the overnight, should see scattered-numerous
showers develop move across the region. Thus, plan to maintain the
categorical pops overnight. Instability still lacking across the
region and appears the better instability will remain well to our
south. Mid level lapse rates marginal at best. So while a clap or
two of thunder cannot be ruled out, the better chance for
thunderstorms expected to remain south of our region across ga and
sc. Overall threat for severe storms appears minimal, except in
immediate proximity to the sc border where a marginal threat for a
strong wind gusts nickel size hail may exists in the 3 am-7 am time

Min temps by early Tuesday should vary from the mid 40s near the va
border to the mid 50s near the sc border.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 345 pm Monday...

a compact shortwave trough low over the mid ms valley will migrate
ewd, to the lwr oh valley by 12z Tue - slower and more amplified
than indicated in previous forecasts. This solution will allow a
pair of upstream trailing SRN stream perturbation (elongated mostly
shear vorticity axes) over the four corners and front range of the
cntl rockies to amplify across the lwr ms and tn valleys, and
ultimately be "captured" by the the aforementioned closed low over
the oh valley, as it drifts across the virginias Tue night-early
wed. Associated 120-150 m mid level height falls, and strong qg-
forcing for ascent, will pivot from the SRN appalachians at 00z wed
to the nc coast by 12z wed.

At the surface, a nearly stationary front will be draped in the
vicinity of highway 64 at 12z tue, with a lead frontal wave over e-
cntl nc, and a trailing one poised to develop over NRN sc as the
aforementioned strong mid-upper level forcing pivots east of the srn
appalachians. A cooler and stable air mass will exist north of the
front, where the heaviest rain will have likely occurred tonight,
while a warmer and slightly unstable airmass will reside south of
the front, or develop with diurnal heating with a few breaks in the
multi-layer clouds over SRN and sern nc. That trailing secondary
low, is then forecast to deepen as it wraps up the middle atlantic
coast through wed, with associated cooler post-frontal plunging swd
across cntl nc Tue night-early wed.

Widespread stratiform rain over the NRN piedmont will decrease in
intensity through midday, though with continued periods of light
rain or drizzle from a low ovc tue, while a band of convection will
likely develop along the advancing front through SRN nc through
early-mid afternoon. The combination of (albeit weak) instability
and strong shear profiles suggest a few storms could become strong
to severe from near maxton to fayetteville to goldsboro and points
sewd, and offshore through Tue evening. At the same time, a mid
level deformation band will be developing over the SRN appalachians
and tn valley, then pivot newd across cntl nc, coincident with the
maximum of mid level height falls referenced above, Tue night-early

Similar to the last event, partial thicknesses deep layer
thermodynamic profiles will trend sufficiently cold for snow aloft,
with the primary inhibiting factor being a slightly above freezing
boundary layer. With that in mind, and also similar to the last
event, melting of snow and associated cooling of the boundary layer
to (near) freezing would likely occur when the heavier precipitation
rates occur, and or when insolation will be at a minimum during the
early morning hours wed. A light, slushy accumulation will
accordingly be possible mainly north and west of an arc from exx to
rdu to etc, where our "most likely" accumulation includes a trace to
up to one half or three quarters of an inch. Any accumulation will
be short-lived and limited to when the precipitation rate exceeds
the melting rate at the surface, with a change over to rain by
midday, as surface temperatures rebound into the upr 30s-lwr 40s.

The precipitation may end as flurries or light snow over the ne
piedmont and NRN coastal plain before ending Wed evening. While
there will be some threat of black ice Wed night, as temperatures
dip into the lwr to mid 30s, no widespread travel problems are

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday...

the surface low will be lifting rapidly northeast with dry and
cooler high pressure building into the area on Thursday through
Friday. Temperatures will be cool, from upper 40s north to mid 50s
south on Thursday, and a couple of degrees warmer on Friday. Lows
Friday morning will fall below freezing over most of the area, with
northern tier counties perhaps falling into the upper 20s.

Northwest flow into the weekend will provide increased cloud
coverage and some light rain into the west to tighten up our damming
signature and produce highs ranging from the low 50s north to low
60s south. Return flow will increase rain coverage on Sunday,
further strengthening the ridging, with highs in the 50s to lower
60s Sunday and Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 735 pm Monday...

24-hour TAF period: initialVFR conditions early this evening will
become ifr to lifr between 06z and 09z tonight as rain develops ne
across the region. Periods of rain and showers will continue through
12z to 15z, gradually tapering to areas of low clouds and drizzle
between 15z and 18z Tuesday. Lifr CIGS are expected through 18z,
with ifr to lifr vsbys becoming MVFR between 15z and 18z. After
18z, expect ifr to lifr CIGS andVFR to MVFR vsbys with a NE flow to
persist into the evening.

Looking ahead: sub-vfr conditions and periods of rain, possibly
mixed with and or briefly changing to snow at the northern TAF sites
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drying and a return toVFR
conditions from west to east will occur as the final trailing low
lifts away from the middle atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon
and night.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Wss
short term... Mws
long term... Mlm
aviation... Badgett

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi35 min SE 4.1 G 6 60°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi69 minSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F52°F82%1006.9 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi69 minSE 310.00 miFair57°F55°F96%1007.5 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi69 minSE 410.00 miFair61°F55°F80%1005.6 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi73 minS 710.00 miFair61°F55°F84%1005.8 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi69 minESE 410.00 miFair60°F55°F87%1005.6 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi70 minSSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F55°F80%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE8SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmE4SE3E4SE4SE7S5SE8S6CalmCalmSE3SE3SE4S6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3NE7NE10N11NE10NE7N9NE10NE5E6CalmNE6NE4E3E3E3SE3CalmE5
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE3S10SW11SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:08 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:01 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:12 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.