Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 6:56 PM   Moonset 5:16 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 231742 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 140 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to move offshore the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. A moisture-starved cold front could bring some some showers Wednesday before bringing slightly cooler air for Thursday and Friday. After the cold front, high pressure will dominate the weather across the southeastern United States late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

High pressure has moved off the South Carolina coast this afternoon, allowing southwesterly flow to develop across central North Carolina. High temperatures will likely top out around 70 degrees, a little cooler than the typical mid 70s for highs this time of year.
Clouds will increase through the night as a cold front advances from the northwest. Between the increasing cloud cover and southwest winds continuing overnight, lows will be significantly warmer than last night, with values ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 232 AM Tuesday...

The dry cold front will move across the area on Wednesday. It will actually be warmer on Wednesday with a pre-dominantly westerly flow becoming northwest. The CAA will be delayed until Wednesday night.
A period of cloudy skies will likely accompany the front during the morning into the early afternoon. A sprinkle can not be ruled out although no QFP is currently advertised. Otherwise, the skies are expected to become partly sunny Wednesday afternoon. Highs should range in the 70s. It will be cooler Wednesday night with the flow becoming more NE. Models and soundings suggest partly to mostly cloudy periods on Wednesday night. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s SE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Extended period of dry weather through early next week with temperatures soaring into the 80s by Mon.

Central NC will largely remain under NW flow aloft through the weekend from the departing broad troughing shifting offshore Thurs morning to the building subtropical ridging over the eastern CONUS.
A surface cold front is forecast to have pushed through central NC by Thurs morning as Canadian high pressure shifts from the Great Lakes region to just off the Northeast coast and extending down through the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Fri.
This will favor below normal temperatures and dry conditions through late week.

Surface flow shifts out of the south/southeast by Sat as the surface high becomes suppressed south to just off the Carolina coast by Sun evening. This will mark the pattern shift as low-level moisture and thicknesses steadily begin to rise and an inverted trough pushes on shore Sat afternoon. NWP guidance hints at the potential for light rain showers to accompany the passage of the inverted trough, mainly over southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills and into SC where higher theta-e airmass will reach first. Although confidence is low on if this feature will be enough to produce measurable precipitation. The subtropical ridge and 850 anticyclone may begin to shift over the Atlantic on Mon and may signal a change for upstream precipitation to leak across the mountains into early next week. High temperatures have a high likelihood of reaching >= 80 degrees (80-95% chances) by Mon with low/mid 80s in the current forecast.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: While the 18Z TAFs include five single-line TAFs, there are a couple potential wrinkles to the forecast. First, there is the potential for some marginal low-level wind shear tonight, primarily between 06Z-12Z Wednesday, with RDU being the most likely terminal and RWI/FAY to a lesser extent. The NAM is depicting a slightly stronger jet than the GFS, barely touching 40kt, and will allow later shifts to re-evaluate whether LLWS is needed. Next, the wind is not expected to decouple overnight, so a single line for wind appears fine, but there are some indications that overnight into Wednesday morning could have some gusts that would be strong enough to prompt an amendment. Finally, the forecast is currently dry through 18Z Wednesday, but a mostly dry cold front moving through the region Wednesday could trigger some isolated showers, with RWI the most likely to receive rainfall.

Outlook: A wind shift can be expected Wednesday afternoon/night as the previously mentioned cold front moves through the region. A brief restriction cannot be ruled out in a shower. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the outlook period.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Conway
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Tue -- 03:33 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:43 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:01 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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