Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:58PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 2:24 PM EDT (18:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 6:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 251817
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
215 pm edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move slowly northeastward over eastern north
carolina this afternoon, and then push off the mid atlantic coast
tonight. High pressure will extend from the atlantic westward into
the southeast states Wednesday through Thursday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 215 pm Tuesday...

lingering high water on many area roads and in creeks necessitated
an areal flood warning through this evening for a large chunk of
central nc. However, the heavy rain threat is done, and water should
continue to recede on roads and in creeks. Flooding will
persist, though, on many mainstem rivers (see hydro section below).

The mid level low, stacked nearly atop the surface low, will move to
the NE over coastal areas of nc through early evening, before
passing off the DELMARVA coast tonight. Confluent cyclonic low level
flow acting on residual moisture favors a lingering threat of
scattered showers on the w/sw side of the low into the evening as it
pulls away slowly. A storm or two also remains possible over the far
ne cwa, where observed mid level lapse rates are around 6-6.5 c/km,
low level lapse rates are nearing 7 c/km, and MUCAPE is 500-1000
j/kg, thanks to some sunshine. Vorticity lobes pivoting around the
low may also contribute to ascent. Will hold onto areas of chance
pops into early evening. Drier air eventually building in from the
wsw in the wake of the low overnight will lead to a clearing trend
from SW to ne, with NE sections the last to see the benefits of
downslope flow and falling dewpoints. Expect lows tonight in the
lower 50s west ranging to around 60 in the far e. -gih

Short term /Wednesday and Wednesday night/
As of 400 am Tuesday...

in the wake of the low pressure lifting up the mid-atlantic coast,
low-level southerly winds and short wave ridging aloft will mark the
return of sunshine and warming temperatures. Highs ranging from
upper 70s NE to lower 80s south. Lows Wednesday night in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

lead short wave trough will lift from the mid ms/tn valley NE into
the great lakes on thulate rsday with trailing sfc cold front
expected to stall out west/northwest of the mtns.

Associated convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning
across tn, al, and ga Thursday morning. However with the better
trough dynamics/forcing lifting off well to the north Thursday
afternoon and evening, the showers and storms should exhibit a
steady decline/weakening trend as they cross the mtns Thursday
afternoon/evening. Will leave isolated chances across the far
western zones Thursday afternoon, otherwise it should remain dry
with temperatures steadily rising in the swly WAA regime. Highs in
the lower to mid 80s west to upper 80s central and eastern areas.

The synoptic pattern will favor near record heat by Saturday, owing
to a 590+dm h5 ridge, bermuda highs and h7 anticyclone over sc.

Thickness are progged at 1410m Saturday, 50m above normal and
indicative of upper 80s to lower 90s. The main question is how
quickly another shortwave ejecting out of the central/southern
plains, this one potentially stronger, will cause the ridge to
retreat offshore a bit. Heights are forecast to lower slightly on
Sunday, more so across western nc. Highs in the mid 80s west to near
90 central and eastern area.

A cold front will bring the next chance for rain/storms to the area
on Monday with cooler temps following on Tuesday.

Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/
As of 135 pm Tuesday...

MVFR CIGS and patchy showers (yielding brief MVFR vsbys) will
dominate central nc terminals this afternoon, followed by gradual
sw-to-ne improvement toVFR areawide late tonight.

A strong and slow moving upper level low will track toward the ne
over eastern nc for the rest of today, before shifting to our NE and
off the DELMARVA coast tonight. Low level moisture continues to
rotate around this low this afternoon, with MVFR CIGS over all but
rwi, where dry air wrapping around the low has progressed inland
from the coast, leading toVFR CIGS there, although a period of MVFR
cigs remains possible as the moisture over the piedmont shifts to
the NE behind the departing low. CIGS should lift toVFR by 00z at
int/gso as surface winds become light from the nw, although the
moisture circulating around the exiting low will keep a threat of
MVFR to ifr CIGS at rdu/fay/rwi into the overnight hours, with rwi
potentially not reachingVFR until 10-12z Wed morning.VFR
conditions will prevail after 12z Wed areawide as a weak high
pressure ridge noses in from the atlantic. Surface winds will be
mostly light and becoming W or NW through tonight.

Looking beyond 18z wed, shallow fog is possible early Thu morning
within a light moist flow from the sw, followed by a better chance
of MVFR/ifr fog/stratus each late-night through morning, Fri through
sun. A few storms with sub-vfr conditions are possible Sat and sun
afternoon. -gih

Hydrology
As of 140 pm Tuesday...

the flood watch expired this morning, with no threat for additional
heavy rain. However, ongoing high water on area roads and in
numerous creeks has prompted an areal flood warning for much of
central nc through this evening. In addition, river flood warnings
are in effect for several mainstem rivers across the area. See
water.Weather.Gov/ahps2/index.Php?wfo=rah for additional information.

Rah watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Cbl
long term... Cbl
aviation... Hartfield
hydrology... WFO rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi54 min N 6 G 8.9 68°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi28 minNW 610.00 miOvercast62°F58°F89%1005.8 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi28 minNW 510.00 mi61°F57°F90%1006.5 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi86 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast66°F59°F80%1003.9 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi32 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast64°F61°F90%1004.4 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi28 minWNW 52.50 miMostly Cloudy with Haze68°F58°F71%1003.5 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi49 minNW 62.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9--NE15
G19
N12N9N6N11N8N6NE5NE3N9N8N4N6N7N5N5N7N4NW4N6NW5NW6
1 day agoE12
G21
NE11
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E7
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E8NE9NE8NE7NE5NE6N11NE9N9NE11NE11
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NE10N8N8N11
2 days agoSW18
G23
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W8W3CalmNE9NE10E9NE5N10NE10NE6NE9E6NE7E9
G17
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G17
NE8----E8
G17
E8

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:05 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:20 PM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.31.51.51.410.60.1-0.2-0.4-0.20.10.61.11.31.41.41.10.60.1-0.3-0.6-0.5-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:28 AM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:09 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:59 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.71.11.21.21.10.80.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.20.10.50.81.11.21.10.80.50.1-0.3-0.5-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.