Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Franklin, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:38PM Sunday May 28, 2017 8:13 PM EDT (00:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 10:45PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Franklin, NC
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location: 35.1, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 290005
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
805 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
Warm and humid air will remain over our region through at least
Monday, as high pressure settles east of the florida coast. A cold
front will slowly approach from the northwest, but will struggle to
push through the area in mid week. This front is forecast to
lift north as a warm front late in the week.

Near term through Monday
As of 745 pm: the remaining convective threat is with a string of
discrete cells lined up along an outflow boundary between shelby
and kannapolis. These are mainly producing heavy rain and 20-25
kt gusts. They are propagating slowly south with the outflow, but
individually tracking east-southeast. Goes-16 imagery does not show
much new CU development along the boundary so a gradual weakening of
the current storms over the next 2 hours is expected. The remainder
of the night should be quiet. Some patchy dense fog could develop
overnight over the swaths of wet ground following the showers
(note namnest depiction thereof).

Weak baroclinic zone will remain in place across the region through
the end of the period. Guidance indicates large scale height
falls associated with migration of the central CONUS trough should
activate this baroclinic zone by Monday afternoon, as indicated by
increasing deep-layer moisture across the southeast. Scattered to
numerous convection should therefore initiate across our area,
particularly along the blue ridge Monday afternoon. Moderate
instability combined with moderate shear will yield another marginal
threat of severe storms producing large hail and damaging winds
again on Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal through
the period.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
As of 230 pm edt Sunday: the short term begins Monday evening with
large upper high over the western atlantic, with a deep low over
the great lakes and southern ontario. Southwest flow aloft over the
southeast and southern appalachians will continue bringing a deep
moisture fetch from the western gulf over the area. Any convection
lingering at the start of the period will slowly sag south overnight
as the trough axis continues to push the wavetrain east. NAM keeps a
minimum of instability across the area with high pressure centered
over the southeast ridging into the piedmont, but the GFS is a
little faster with the approaching surface trough, allowing some
minimal instability across the blue ridge by midday, traversing into
the piedmont during the afternoon. Very little shear to work with so
expect generally diurnal convective chances and as is typical cannot
rule out an isolated strong to marginally severe pulse storm, but
not particularly exciting. The upper trough axis pushes closer to
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, but by Wednesday afternoon
the surface trough axis will have generally pushed through the
forecast area, leaving us in a minimum of instability. Shear will be
increased due to the proximity of the upper trough, but again
convective chances look diurnal at best, and more likely a little
less than. Temperatures through the period pretty close to seasonal
normals, perhaps only a degree or two off.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 210 pm Sunday: a broad upper trough remains over the east as a
closed upper low will remain located just north of the great lakes
Thursday. The surface cold front is expected to pass south of our
area early Thursday with transit weak high pressure reaching the
mid atlantic coast late Thursday. With this high moving offshore and
low level moisture increasing across the gulf states with SW wind
behind the high, the front moves north as a warm front. This warm
front should reach the virginias by Sunday and by that time we will
be deep in moist subtropical air. A series of shortwaves will be
advancing across the plains states to the SE states in combination
with the persistent low level flow from the gulf will keep a good
chance of convection in the forecast each day. The extensive
cloud cover will result in MAX temps bring held down a bit and min
temps being a few degrees above normal. Instability will be rather
low Thursday and then models bring CAPE values up to near 2000 in
the piedmont over the weekend. As the general broad trough continues
over the east, the upper ridge will remain over the west.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Specifically for kclt: a line of discrete tsra is slowly propagating
s thru the metro area at 2340z. The individual cells are moving
ese. The newest cell is on track to move very near kclt between
01-02z, and it is possible a new cell will develop along the
outflow boundary. That boundary will be S of kclt by 00z and so
the TAF starts off with N winds. Tempo covers effects of tsra. If
heavy rain does occur there is a small chance that at least brief
vsby restrictions will develop in the early morning due to the
saturated ground.

Otherwise:VFR expected outside mountain valleys, where ifr fog
should form in the predawn hours. Winds will remain light and wsw
tonight, veering a bit in the morning. LowVFR CU should break
out around midday. While fcst profiles indicate capping will keep
convection isold, chances warrant a prob30 at all terminals.

Outlook: primarily afternoon and evening tsra are possible each
day, bringing periodic restrictions. Areas of morning fog and or
low stratus may potentially develop especially where ra fell the
previous evening. This pattern will continue through at least the
end of the work week.

Confidence table...

00-06z 06-12z 12-18z 18-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC9 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair74°F60°F61%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7
G19
CalmE3SW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW8W4W8W6NW5Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3N5NW4NW6N7NE8N4NW3CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.