Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Franklin, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:23PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:52 AM EST (15:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:56PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Franklin, NC
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location: 35.1, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 241522
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1022 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
Very warm conditions will continue before a cold front slowly
crosses the area Sunday into Monday increasing the chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Dry and relatively cool high pressure
will settle over the region Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1015 am est Saturday: little change needed overall to the
near term segment of the fcst. Did however tweak pops along the tn
line to account for current departing shra associated with the
ejecting wave, generally highlighting chance pops across the
northern mtns fthills. Otherwise, visibilities continue to
gradually improve across the region this morning therefore the
earlier sps for dense fog has been allowed to expire. Did also
adjust sky vis in the immediate near term to account for such.

Lastly, most guidance favors slightly higher maxt's today, therefore
did bump them up by one degree across the board as insolation should
increase once low stratus and fog erodes over the next hour.

Previous discussion: the persistent synoptic pattern finally begins
to break down thru the near-term as a strong WRN trof is reinforced
with energy diving south out of WRN canada. This trof will propagate
east and begin to weaken and displace the st high which has been the
dominant factor in the weather over the area the past several days.

Model soundings show pwat values increasing arnd 70 percent over the
next 24-36 hrs as moisture increases thru a deepening layer this
afternoon. The 00z 3-km NAM holds on to a dry stable layer aloft
more than the other op models and therefore has less of a chance of
precip and thunder. Even the moister and less capped GFS only
produces arnd 300 j kg of SBCAPE this afternoon mainly over the
higher terrain. So... Pops will remain low-end except across the sw
facing SRN mtns where mech lift is aided by an increase in mlvl
destabilization and difl aloft ahead of a cold front. An isol tstm
or two is possible across the nc mtns but these will be short-lived
and non organized.

Max temps will once again reach abt 20 degrees abv normal in good
sw ly flow with weak WAA noted in the h92-h85 layer. With high
moisture in the low-levels and SW ly flow maintaining a mixed sfc
layer... Mins will also be held abt 20 degrees abv normal.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
As of 310 am est Saturday: the model guidance suggests that we
can tighten up the time of arrival of the main precip associated
with the approach and passage of a cold front on Sunday. Still
plenty of support for bringing high precip probability across the
fcst area with excellent forcing and deep moisture, but all the
guidance has the front to the west of the mtns at 12z Sunday. That
means the eastern zones will have a very low chance at daybreak,
although it will still ramp up into the likely range by the early
afternoon. The main concern is still the possibility of severe
thunderstorms with the front on Sunday, given what should be an
active boundary well to our west through Saturday evening. The
model guidance shows excellent low level convergence with the
front approaching from the west Sunday morning, supporting the
idea that some sort of weakening qlcs might be just to the west
at daybreak, suggesting that the western mountains might have
a wind damage threat early in the day as the front arrives. The
weakening trend continues into Sunday as the front crosses the
mtns though, with sfc-based CAPE perhaps only as high as 300 j kg,
and shear perhaps only on the order of 20-30 kt. As such, not even
the marginal risk translates eastward into the western carolinas
for day 2, and at this point this seems reasonable unless until
we see either better instability or better shear. Have included
some thunder, but the severe possibilities are too low to mention
in the hwo right now. High temps will be at least 15 degrees or
so above normal. The guidance also agrees that the frontal precip
band will push off to the east late in the day, perhaps resulting
in brief lull Sunday evening before another shot of mid upper
forcing moves in overnight to redevelop the precip along and west
of the front. Precip prob ramps right back up to at least likely
early Monday morning in response to the excellent agreement seen
in the model guidance. The jet streak lifts out to the northeast
during the day, along with most of the vorticity, taking the
surface boundary off to the east, so a steady tapering off of
precip is still expected Monday afternoon. Those developments
should help to keep temps merely ten degrees above normal. The
upper trof axis should pass Monday evening, followed by a flat
upper ridge supporting sfc high pressure moving in from the west
to dry us out on Tuesday. Temps will be another category cooler,
but still above normal.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
As of 1210 am est Saturday: dry wx is still anticipated on Tuesday
as low amplitude upper ridging builds atop the SE CONUS and sfc
ridge axis translates from the mountains to the coast by evening.

Maximum temperatures remain progged to be about 2 categories above
climo. Medium model solutions are in decent enough agreement with
respect to the sensible wx for Wednesday, with the consensus
developing WAA pcpn eastward into the cwfa. Based on this, will
plan on creeping chances upward to categorical in favored locales,
and with the clouds and pcpn, a smaller diurnal temperature range
should result, maxes topping out near the late february normal.

There is still plenty of time for model timing differences to work
themselves out with respect to the passage of a moderately forced
cold front Thursday and or Thursday night. Even at this point, it
is hard to believe there won't be categorical shower coverage at
some point during this period followed by a dry punch on Friday
within a gusty post-frontal airmass.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere: expect a mix of MVFR ifr conds to develop
early on as good rad cooling continues and moisture remains trapped
within weak sfc based inversions. Hires models favor the lower
elevation piedmont area including kclt for the higher h95-h85
layered moisture adv... Thus have lowering CIGS vsby to ifr at kclt
and the upstate sites. Kavl and khky have a better chance remaining
MVFRVFR. All sites will see a breakup of cloud cover this afternoon
within good isol. A cold front advances toward the area overnight
which will keep llvl moisture high and the chances for flight
restrictions all sites.

Outlook: moist conditions will keep chances for restrictions
elevated through the period, with the best chances for low CIGS vsby
to occur each morning. Precipitation chances are also slightly
elevated, mainly across the high terrain.

Confidence table...

15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z
kclt high 95% high 95% high 100% high 88%
kgsp med 73% high 100% high 100% high 92%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 98% high 100%
khky high 83% high 95% high 96% high 87%
kgmu med 71% high 100% high 100% high 95%
kand high 83% high 100% high 100% high 97%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC9 mi78 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F57°F80%1023 hPa

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Last 24hrSE4SE5SE4
G14
SE4S8S5SE3S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmE3NE3E3
1 day agoW10
G16
W8W5S4E3SW5S4S4S5E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4
2 days agoS3S5S6SE9
G14
S4SE8SE7S4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE4SE5S5S6S7S5S5CalmS3S8W9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.