Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:21PM Friday March 22, 2019 10:03 AM EDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:19PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 627 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers, then rain likely.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221358
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
958 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move through eastern nc this evening. High
pressure will then build into the area this weekend. A storm
system is expected to impact the region early to mid next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 10 am fri... No changes to latest zones. Latest sfc
analysis shows strong low pressure system moving along the NE us
coast. The axis of a strong mid level trough will continue to
push off the coast today. Clear skies across the area this
morning, but should see increasing clouds late in the afternoon,
especially across the northern forecast area ahead of
approaching front. It will become windy late this morning and
afternoon as a cold front approaches. Westerly wind gusts 30-35
kt this afternoon and evening. Low level thickness values, 850mb
temps and downsloping flow support highs in the low to mid 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
As of 3 am fri... A reinforcing cold front will move through the
area this evening. Not alot of moisture to work with, but may
be enough to generate some sprinkles or an isolated shower
across the N NE portions of the forecast area. Guidance has
trended a bit wetter than previous runs... So added a small pop
for a few hours early this evening across the northern tier.

Breezy NW winds and strong CAA develop behind the front tonight.

Temps will drop into the mid upper 30s inland and upper 30s low
40s along the coast. Winds should stay mixed to preclude any
frost threat.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 3 am fri...

Saturday and Sunday... Deep layer subsidence will keep clear dry
conditions in place Saturday. High pressure building over the
region from the northeast will bring northwesterly winds, and
high temps will be near to a couple of degrees below normal. The
high will then pass overhead Saturday night into Sunday
morning, with calm winds and clear skies leading to efficient
radiation cooling. Temps are expected to reach the mid to lower
30s for most away from the immediate coast early Sunday morning,
which will result in widespread frost and possibly an early-
spring freeze.

The high will move offshore later in the day Sunday, with
developing light southerly flow bringing noticeably warmer temps
compared to Saturday. Aloft, PVA develops as troughing digs across
the eastern us with upper level cloud cover increasing through
the day. However, persistent downsloping mid level flow will
ensure that a dry forecast remains in place.

Monday and Tuesday... Large scale troughing develops across the
eastern us Monday. At the surface, a cold front approaching from
the west will cross the area Tuesday morning bringing the
highest rainfall chances Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

Greatest source of uncertainty with the forecast involves
divergence aloft associated with a southern stream jet streak to
our south, which may develop a wave low within the front. The
effects of this feature on moisture transport, instability, and
frontal passage timing locally remains to be seen, but low end
likely pops with the primary band of pre-frontal moisture
remains in the forecast for the time being.

The upper ridge axis will pass overhead late Tuesday, bringing
height rises aloft and ending any significant precip threat.

Wednesday and Thursday... Ridging is expected to develop aloft
for the end of the period as high pressure centered over the
northeast ridges down the east coast. A mainly dry forecast is
in place given the dry airmass that will prevail inland.

However, low end precip chances will linger over mainly the
outer banks as moisture may linger along a coastal front. Below
normal temps will prevail as we move into the second half of
next week.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am fri... PredVFR expected through the period. Gusty
westerly winds expected today, with gusts 25-30 kt. This will
likely lead to crosswind impacts for runways at ewn and pgv.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 3 am fri...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. A
cold front will approach from the west early next week, and
increasing moisture ahead of the front will bring the potential
for at least periods of flight restrictions beginning Monday
morning.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 10 am fri... No changes needed to lastest zones. No sca
conditions at present, but still expect seas to increase this
afternoon.

Prev disc... Latest obs show W wnw winds 15-25 kt with seas 3-5
ft. Gusty W wnw flow 15-25 kt continues today with seas 4-8 ft,
highest across the outer central waters. Another cold front will
move through the waters this evening, with strong CAA behind
it. Gusty westerly winds will become more NW 20-30 kt. Could see
a brief period of gusts to gale force across the outer central
waters. SCA continues for the coastal waters and sounds, and
added the inland rivers where expect to see gusts 25-30 kt this
afternoon into tonight.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 3 am fri... Moderate northwesterly winds Saturday will
become light Sunday as high pressure moves overhead. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday, bringing increasing
southwesterly winds. The cold front will cross the waters
early Tuesday, with strong northeasterly winds expected to fill
in behind the front through the middle of next week. Scas may be
needed with the pre-frontal southwesterly winds, but there is
higher confidence that an advisory or warning level winds will
occur behind the cold front.

Elevated seas Saturday morning will gradually subside through
the weekend, becoming 1 to 3 ft by late Sunday. Then, seas will
increase as southerly wind swell develops ahead of the
approaching cold front Monday. Large and dangerous seas are
possibly as strong northeast winds develop behind the cold front
Tuesday through midweek.

Fire weather
As of 630 am fri... Dry and windy across eastern nc today. Min rh
values expected to drop to 25-30 percent this afternoon inland
combined with westerly wind gusts 25-35 mph. Given recent rains
do not anticipate widespread fire weather concerns, but the
combination of low rh values inland and gusty winds could lead
to an increased threat of fire danger today.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Saturday for amz136-137.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for amz130-131-
135-156-158.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for amz150-152-
154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Hsa cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Cb
aviation... Cqd cb
marine... Hsa cqd cb
fire weather... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi46 min 1006.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi64 min WNW 22 G 27 51°F 1008.9 hPa (+2.0)40°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi46 min 1009.6 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi73 minWNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair53°F42°F66%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:46 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:30 AM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:56 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30-0.1-0.1-00.30.611.11.110.70.40.1-0.1-0.1-00.20.50.91.21.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:22 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:32 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:40 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:56 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.60-0.3-0.20.10.81.52.12.52.52.21.60.90.2-0.2-0.300.61.422.52.72.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.