Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:25PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:21 PM EDT (21:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 351 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Tonight..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181931
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
331 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
An offshore high inland trough pattern will continue through mid
week producing a hot southwest flow across the area. A weak
frontal boundary may move into northern sections Tuesday night
and Wednesday with a somewhat stronger front pushing through
the area Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 pm Monday... Latest sfc analysis shows 1021mb high
pressure anchored off the SE coast with a weak trough
stretching e-w across nc from approx charlotte to manteo.

A moist and unstable airmass remains in place with kmhx 12z
sounding shows pw values of 2.16" with CAPE analyzed around
3500-4500 j kg. Convection is developing along the
aforementioned trough as well as the sea breeze boundary and
expect scattered convection to continue into the early evening
hours, then gradually diminish with loss of sfc heating and
expect dry conditions through the rest of the overnight. The
heat continues to build today with temps in the low mid 90s
inland bringing heat indices to around 100-105f with a few
locations slightly higher this afternoon. Very mild and muggy
conditions expected tonight with lows only in the mid to upper
70s.

Short term Tuesday
As of 315 pm Monday... The upper ridge builds aloft Tuesday
bringing additional heating but also should serve to help
suppress diurnal convection. High res models do show
thunderstorm development during the afternoon but global models
and MOS guidance showing very low pops. Given the heat, moisture
and instability cannot completely rule out an isolated storm
and decided to keep slight chance pops during the afternoon. In
addition, a weak front will be pushing south through the mid-
atlantic states trough the day and some models showing some
storms skirting northern counties late in the day, but will
likely be early evening.

The big story will be the heat with temperatures topping out in
the mid to upper 90s inland and low to mid 90s coast. Heat
indices expected to top out around 105-110f and will issue a
heat advisory for all areas.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
As of 330 am Monday... Latest guidance continues to indicate
upper ridge building east over area through midweek, resulting
in very hot and humid conditions for tue-wed, with highs in mid
to upper 90s and heat indices 105-110 degrees. A weak frontal
protrusion into northern sections is indicated early Wednesday,
then a stronger front will push in late Thursday into Friday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... A strong upper level ridge
will build over the lower mississippi valley through midweek. At
the surface, high pressure will be centered well offshore, and
ridge into the SE us, while a weak trough forms over central nc.

Increasing low level heights through Wednesday will support
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland, and the upper
80s to low 90s near the coast. Wednesday will continue to be
oppressive with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, and heat
indices climb to around 110 degrees. Overnight low temperatures
will be very mild ranging from the low to upper 70s. Latest
guidance has trended to just isolated convective precip threat
tue-tue night due to building ridge, then a better chance wed-
wed night as ridge flattens slightly and allows weak surface
front to push into northern half of area.

Thursday through Saturday... Initial frontal boundary will
dissipate over area early Thursday, then main models in general
agreement that stronger shortwave will break down ridge enough
to allow frontal push through entire area Thu night into Friday.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of inland
thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend. Main change with
this forecast issuance was to increase pops to 50% for most of
area Thu afternoon and southern sections Thu night, then mainly
20-30% pops rest of period. Temps in low to mid 90s and heat
indices around 105 again for thu, then 5-8 degrees cooler for
fri-sat and back into lower 90s Sunday. Low temps will
continue to be mild, mostly in the 70s.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Short term through 18z Tuesday ...

as of 158 pm mon...VFR forecast for the period as typical
summertime offshore high inland trough pattern will continue.

Scattered showers and storms still expected to develop now into
the early evening, with the best chances at ewn and oaj along
the seabreeze. Periods of sub-VFR are possible with directly
impacting storms.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 400 am Monday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible each day due to scattered thunderstorms.

Some sub-vfr CIGS will be possible with ne-e flow behind front
Friday into Friday night.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 315 pm Monday... Latest obs shows SW winds 5-15 kt north
of oregon inlet with seas around 2 ft, and 10-20 kt south of
oregon inlet with seas 3-5 ft. An offshore high inland trough
pattern will continue through the short term bringing typical
diurnally enhanced wind pattern. SW winds are expected to
increase a bit more late this afternoon and evening with inland
heating bringing SW winds to around 15-25 kt across the central
and southern waters. Seas expected around 2-4 ft through the
period but could see some 5 ft seas across outer waters south of
hatteras late through tonight. Will continue with a marginal
sca for the waters south of hatteras, developing later this
afternoon evening into tonight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 400 am Monday... Southern half of waters will continue to
see SW winds mainly 10-15 kt into thu, while northern half will
see shifting and variable conditions due to weak front pushing
in from north late Tue into wed. Stronger front now expected to
push through all waters late Thu into Friday, producing ne-e
winds 10-15 kt. Seas mainly 2-4 feet during period.

Climate
Near record high temperatures will be possible early this week.

Record high temps 6 18 (today)
location temp year
cape hatteras 90 1975
greenville 99 1920
jacksonville 95 1984
kinston 101 1944
morehead city 91 2015
new bern 96 2014
record high temps 6 19 (Tuesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 1984
greenville 98 1975
jacksonville 97 1984
kinston 100 1944
morehead city 94 1984
new bern 99 1970
record high temps 6 20 (Wednesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 2011
greenville 99 1970
jacksonville 97 1994
kinston 104 1924
morehead city 93 2011
new bern 98 1994

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for ncz029-
044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am edt
Tuesday for amz154.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Jbm
aviation... Jbm cqd ms
marine... Jbm sk
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi52 min SW 8 G 13 83°F 81°F1015.7 hPa
41063 23 mi142 min SW 14 G 18 80°F 1016.6 hPa (-1.8)
41025 - Diamond Shoals 32 mi42 min SW 14 G 16 79°F 79°F1016.5 hPa76°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi82 min SW 13 G 17 1016.7 hPa (-1.7)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi52 min SSW 8.9 G 15 83°F 82°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G9
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E8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi31 minSW 910.00 miFair85°F78°F80%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10
G18
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W7W8
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W9W8W8W4W65SW5SW7SW9SW8SW11SW13
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1 day agoSE7SE4SE3SE3SE4S4S4S3SW5SW5SW6W5SW5SW5SW7SW6SW7SW6SW11SW12
G18
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G18
2 days agoNE5E5E4NE5E3E4E4E5E4E3E5E5NE4NE4NE6NE5NE55SE10SE8SE9SE9SE8SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:21 PM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.20.90.60.30.10-00.10.30.60.9110.80.60.30.20.10.10.10.30.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:24 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.41.91.30.70.200.10.511.622.32.321.510.50.20.20.511.52

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.