Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:03PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:44 AM EST (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:24PMMoonset 11:00PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 327 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Today..NE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers early this morning, then a slight chance of showers late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..E winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 140600
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
100 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move offshore overnight followed by high
pressure Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will affect the
area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure will ridge
into the region later Friday through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1255 am Wednesday... Raised pops slightly on this update as
rain shield across the coastal plains continues to make very
little progress to the east. Rainfall amounts will be fairly
light overnight. Temperatures will continue to fall overnight
with CAA behind front with lows in the lower 40s well inland to
around 50 outer banks. Gusty NE winds will continue, especially
along the coast, overnight.

Short term Thursday through 6 am Thursday
As of 220 pm Tuesday... High pressure will build in from the n
with drier air keeping most of the area dry. Cont slight pops
srn tier early that will increase a bit late as moisture begins
lifting N ahead of next system. Widespread clouds will keep
temps cool with 40s inland to low mid 50s cst with cont gusty
ne winds cst.

Long term Thursday through Wednesday
As of 230 pm tue... Active weather will continue into the second half
of the week. Then, drier and cooler air will move in Friday and
remain into the weekend.

Late Wednesday through Thursday... Low pressure traveling up the east
coast will prompt moisture to surge locally beginning Wednesday
night. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will be in place
Thursday morning, and light to moderate precip will overspread the
area from south to north low level moisture overrides the wedge.

Gradually, instability will build as higher theta-e air begins to
overspread the area. Inland, where the wedge will persist later into
the day, instability will mainly be elevated, while closer to the
coast, the coastal front is expected to retreat inland to around the
us hwy 17 corridor as the low approaches the area, resulting in
instability based closer to the surface. This, in conjunction with
ample low level shear as a strong low level jet on the east side of
the low works into the area, will lead to an increased chance of
thunderstorms becoming organized, with damaging wind gusts and
possibly a couple of tornadoes. As such, SPC has outlooked coastal
areas within a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday.

Additionally, pwat values as high as 1.5 inches inland to over 2
inches along the coast will support the potential for heavy rainfall
late Thursday morning through Thursday night. Given the very wet
antecedent conditions, minor to moderate flooding of mainly low-
lying and poor drainage areas is possible as 1 to 3 inches of
additional rainfall is expected.

Friday through Monday... As low pressure departs the area, it will
drag a cold front off the coast Friday morning, with cooler high
pressure building in behind it. High pressure will continue to ridge
into the area through this weekend and into Monday, however cooler
conditions are expected. High temps Friday will reach the low to
upper 60s, with mostly 50s likely for the weekend. Lows will dip
into the 30s inland, but look to remain above freezing, while
remaining in the low to mid 40s along the coast.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 06z Thursday ...

as of 1255 am Wednesday... Poor flying conditions will persist
through this TAF cycle. Ifr MVFR ceilings continue this morning.

Ceilings may improve toVFR for a few hours this afternoon and
early evening, but all numerical guidance indicates another
round of lower ifr stratus returning by after dark and
continuing into the night Wednesday night.

Long term Wed night through Saturday ...

as of 230 pm tue... Ifr conditions are likely as low pressure impacts
the area Wednesday night through Thursday night.VFR conditions
return Friday through the weekend.

Marine
Short term tonight and Wed ...

as of 1255 am Wednesday... Gusty winds and rough seas continue on
the coastal waters and sounds early this morning. Winds continue
n NE at 15-25 knots with seas of 5-7 feet. Tight gradient will
cont Wed with high pres to the N and developing low pres to the
s. NE winds will cont at 20 to 30 kts and could see some gusts
to 35 kts espcly central and SRN wtrs. Seas build to 6 to 9
feet wed.

Long term Wed night through Sunday ...

as of 220 pm tues... Deepening low pres will approach from the s
wed night and move just inland from coast thu. Strong onshore
winds of 25 to 35 kt will develop with the low approaching thru
mid day Thu then begin to diminish late Thu as low starts to
lift n. Issued gale watch for coastal waters Thu and expect seas
to build to 8 to 13 ft. Conditions should begin to improve
Friday, but seas look to remain elevated through late Fri to fri
night. High pres will build in from the W over the weekend with
winds mainly AOB 15 kt and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for amz137.

Small craft advisory until 2 am est Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Thursday for amz130-131.

Gale watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
amz150-152-154-156-158.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Thursday for amz150-156-
158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Rf
long term... Sgk cb
aviation... Rf ctc bm
marine... Rf ctc bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi45 min NNE 17 G 24 55°F 65°F1022.9 hPa (+1.7)
41063 23 mi45 min Calm G 0 77°F
41025 - Diamond Shoals 32 mi35 min N 21 G 29 60°F 78°F1022.7 hPa53°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi45 min N 15 G 20 1023 hPa (+1.9)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi45 min NNE 13 G 15 53°F 66°F1023.3 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi54 minNNE 7 G 2010.00 miOvercast56°F48°F75%1023 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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SW4W5W8SW6W75W6NW5NW3NE7N6
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1 day agoNE4NE45E3NE6NE6E9NE86NE8
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2 days agoNE8
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6NE7NE65NE6NE4NE4NE3CalmNE3NE3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:14 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:03 PM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:43 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.40.30.20.30.30.40.50.70.910.90.80.70.50.30.30.20.20.30.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:52 AM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:10 PM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.41.10.80.60.50.60.91.21.61.921.91.71.30.90.60.40.40.50.81.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.