Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:23PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:10 AM EDT (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:39AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1028 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday evening...
Overnight..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230227
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1027 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend into the region from the northeast
through Monday. A strong cold front will approach from the west
Monday night and move across the area through Tuesday night.

High pressure will build over the area Wednesday through Friday.

Another cold front will approach next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 1025 pm Sunday... The latest sfc analysis continues to
show sfc high pressure dominating the area this evening with
scattered clouds moving along the coast, meanwhile high clouds
are streaming through. Winds are now light to calm across enc
and will continue through the overnight. Expect some patchy fog
to develop over the NW sections of eastern nc. Made minor tweaks
to the overnight lows with this update based on warmer trends,
but expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 330 pm Sunday... Se-s flow and approaching strong short
wave trough will produce increasing shower threat during the day
with enough instability to warrant TSTM mention late afternoon.

Will have slight chance of showers along and east of hwy 17
during the morning, then mainly chance pops of showers isolated
tstms all zones in afternoon. Better chance of showers storms
and marginal threat of severe will be Monday night with better
dynamics. Low level thicknesses increase to around 1390 meters
but increased cloud cover expected to keep MAX temps near 80
inland to mid-upper 70s outer banks.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 345 pm Sunday... A strong cold front will bring a good
threat of showers with a few thunderstorms Monday night through
Tuesday followed by another shot of seasonably cool air for mid
to late next week.

Monday night through Tuesday night... A deep upper trough and
strong cold front will move through the region this period
bringing periods of heavy rain and a marginal threat of severe
storms. Vorticity advection increases as models depict dampening
shortwave trough pivoting through the tn ohio valleys, and will
spur sfc cyclogenesis in the southern appalachians acting to
increase dynamics and strengthening southerly flow on 40-50 kt
llj. Dewpoints will be quite high in the 60s and would be
sufficient for marginal instability, and the combination of
significant wind shear and marginal instability will spell a
high shear low CAPE scenario for strong or severe storms. Any
heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms could produce strong
gusty winds due to momentum transfer to the sfc from strong
winds aloft.

There remains some uncertainty with the timing of the heavier
precip stronger storms as 22 12z models are not in best
agreement but they have continued to trend a little faster with
onset Monday night. The GFS is on the faster side of guidance
bringing in heavier precip Monday evening while the NAM is on
the slower side delaying onset until early Tuesday morning. The
ecmwf and cmc are between these solutions. Due to the amplifying
nature of the upper trough digging into the eastern CONUS the
front will be slow to move across the region and expect descent
rain chances to continue through the day Tuesday, especially
east of highway 17, and continuing along the coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

Temps will be mild Monday night and Tuesday with strong
southerly flow ahead of the front. Lows Monday night expected
around 65-70 with highs Tuesday in the mid to perhaps upper 70s.

Much cooler Tuesday night as the front pushes offshore and
expect lows in the lower 50s inland to around 60 coast.

Wednesday through Friday... .Continued drying and cooling
expected Wednesday as the front will have pushed well off the
coast by early morning. Have retained the small pops for
Wednesday though confined them to the extreme eastern areas
mainly the obx as the deep upper low moves through E nc with
lingering deep layer moisture across the obx. Dry wnw flow on
Thursday as upper low finally exits off the mid atlantic coast
and high pressure builds into the region. Temps will be much
cooler for the mid week period with Wednesday and Thursday both
in the mid 60s to near 70 for highs. High pressure slides
offshore Friday with return flow bringing gradually warming
temps with highs around 70s. Low temps fall back into the 40s
inland and low mid 50s beaches for Thursday Friday mornings.

Saturday and Sunday... The high moves offshore next weekend
with another highly amplified upper trough and surface cold
front approaching from the west. Models remain in poor agreement
with the timing and details with the system but there will
likely be another good shot of precip and perhaps a period of
strong storms sometime next weekend as there will be increasing
jet dynamics with a moisture feed from the tropics into the
region. Temps will likely be near to a little above normal.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Short term through 18z Monday ...

as of 730 pm Sunday... High confidence ofVFR conditions will
dominate most of the TAF period. An increase of high clouds will
stream through the area as low clouds increase along the coast.

Models are showing a mix signal with fog developing across enc.

Guidance continues and now the rap forecast sounding indicates
the best potential for fog development will be over NW sections
and therefore forecasted a tempo period of ifr at kpgv and kiso
08z-12z. Conditions will improve in the the morning as winds
increase from SE around 10 knots gusting up to 20 knot by the
afternoon. Showers isolated thunderstorms chances increase in
the afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 4 pm Sunday... Periods of MVFR ifr ceilings and vsbys are
likely with fairly widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Monday night through the day Tuesday. The
precipitation should move east of the TAF sites by Tuesday
evening with much drier air moving in behind a strong cold
front.VFR conditions should prevail Wednesday through Friday,
although some decent radiational cooling conditions could lead
to some fog, especially around kpgv and kewn both Wednesday and
Thursday mornings.

Marine
Short term through Monday ...

as of 1025 pm Sunday... Current marine forecast in great shape.

The latest buoy observations are showing mostly easterly winds
5-10 knots north of diamond shoals and SE winds south. Seas 2 to
3 ft.

Pre dis... High pressure extending over area from ne
will continue to move offshore tonight and Monday. Ne-e winds
around 10 kt will become e-se 10-15 kt overnight, and then se-s
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by late afternoon. Initiated sca
for waters south of oregon inlet starting 5 pm Monday.

Seas will build with increasing winds late tonight and Monday,
with heights 4-6 feet expected outer southern and central waters
by late in the day.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 415 pm Sunday... A strong cold front approaches the region
Monday night and Tuesday, then pushes through the waters
Tuesday night. Southerly winds increase drastically Monday night
and Tuesday, peaking around 20-30 kt with some gale force gusts
possible. Seas build to 6-9 ft Monday night and 7-11 feet
Tuesday. Have initiated an SCA starting late Monday Monday
evening for all waters except the inland rivers with this
package. The front pushes through the region Tuesday night
with winds becoming W NW around 10-15 kt through Wednesday. Seas
gradually subside Tuesday night to around 4-6 ft Wednesday.

Gradients tighten some Wednesday night into Thursday and the
upper trough axis swings through and expect NW winds around
10-20 kt with seas continuing around 4-6 ft. By late Thursday
expect winds to diminish to below 15 kt with seas dropping below
sca criteria. Light southerly winds around 5-10 kt expected
Friday with seas around 2-4 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 10 pm edt Tuesday
for amz135.

Small craft advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Monday to 6 pm edt Thursday for
amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Monday to 10 am edt Thursday
for amz156.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Monday to noon edt Thursday for
amz150.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Monday to 10 am edt Wednesday
for amz158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm bm
short term... Jbm
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk bm
marine... Jbm sk bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi41 min SE 6 G 8 75°F 73°F1024.7 hPa
41063 23 mi71 min SSE 14 G 18 77°F 1025 hPa (-1.0)
41025 - Diamond Shoals 32 mi81 min ESE 14 G 18 77°F 81°F3 ft1024.7 hPa (-1.2)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi71 min SE 11 G 13 75°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.9)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi41 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 73°F1024.5 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi20 minSE 610.00 miOvercast74°F66°F79%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4E4NE4NE4NE5NE436E6SE7SE8SE7SE7E5NE3NE4NE5E3E3E4E3E5SE6
1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm5N6NE8NE653NE63NE3NE4NE4NE5NE4NE5NE5NE5E4
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmNW4NW4NW4NW5NW6NW54NW4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmN3NE3NE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:41 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.30.20.10.20.20.40.70.91.11.110.80.50.30.20.20.20.20.40.60.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:18 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:00 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.30.90.50.30.30.61.11.622.32.42.21.71.20.80.40.30.40.71.11.61.92

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.