Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ford City, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday August 24, 2017 3:41 AM PDT (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 210 Am Pdt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 210 Am Pdt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt...high pressure was over the eastern pacific and a 1005 mb low was near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ford City, CA
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location: 35.16, -119.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 240923
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
223 am pdt Thu aug 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will gradually build over the area this weekend into
the first half of next week. This will result in a gradual
decrease in the extent of the stratus and fog. Additionally,
temperatures will be on the increase with excessive heat
conditions possible the first half of next week.

Short term (tdy-sat)
overall, 00z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.

At upper levels, weak low will linger over the area today then
ridge will begin to strengthen over the area Friday and Saturday.

Near the surface, weakening onshore flow will be the story.

Forecast-wise, main issues will be the extent of the marine layer
stratus and temperatures. Currently, marine inversion is based
around 2500 feet which is deep enough for stratus to push into the
santa clarita valley this morning which satellite currently shows.

The inversion is not too strong, so stratus should dissipate
rather well by late this morning and early afternoon. For tonight
and Friday, h5 heights rise a bit which should help squish the
inversion. However, still should be deep enough to have stratus
and fog push into the coastal valleys. However, by Saturday, the
marine inversion will be more shallow and stratus will be limited
to the coastal plain. Other than the marine layer stratus, there
may be some afternoon cumulus buildups this afternoon over the
mountains as some mid-level lingers.

As for temperatures, the combination of decreasing onshore
gradients, rising thicknesses h5 heights and warming boundary
layer will result in a warming trend through Saturday. The most
noticeable warming will occur across inland areas with some areas
around 100 degrees by Saturday.

Long term (sun-wed)
for the extended, 00z models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, ridge centers itself over the great
basin with 592-594 dm heights over the area. Near the surface,
very weak onshore flow will prevail.

Forecast-wise, the above pattern is setting the stage for an
extended heat wave across the area. Afternoon temperatures will be
on a upward trend Sunday through Tuesday with inland areas
ranging between 100 and 110 degrees with even the coastal plain
ranging in the upper 80s and 90s. Overnight lows during this time
period will also be quite warm, ranging in the 70s to lower 80s
away from the beaches. So, excessive heat looks to be a
significant risk the first half of next week and an excessive
heat watch will likely need to be issued in the next day or two.

On Wednesday, temperature will cool a few degrees, but conditions
still look good for excessive heat criteria.

Otherwise, the above synoptic pattern will allow for the
possibility for some monsoonal moisture to move into the area. At
this time, the models keep any monsoonal precipitation south and
east of the area through the period. So, will continue with the
idea of some afternoon cloud buildups over the mountains each day,
but keeping the chances of precipitation at 10% or less. This
situation will need to be watched closely as the chances for
monsoonal precipitation could increase over the next few model
runs. Otherwise, marine layer stratus should be quite limited
across the area, if not non-existent.

Aviation 24 0020z...

at 0530z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 1700 feet.

The top of the inversion was 2800 feet with a temperature of 20
degrees celsius.

Moderate confidence in category of low CIGS vsbys. There is a 30
percent chance of low MVFR CIGS vsbys at kbur, kvny, and koxr
after 09z. Low confidence in timing clearing low CIGS vsbys for
coastal TAF sites with moderate confidence for valley locations.

Low confidence in return of low CIGS vsbys with timing off by up
to 3 hours, locally more. There is a 20 percent chance of low
cigs vsbys prevailing through the period for coastal areas from
klgb to koxr including klax. There is nearly an equal chance of
low MVFR to ifr CIGS after 00z 25 for coastal and valley TAF sites
south of point conception.

Klax... Moderate confidence in TAF through 23z 24. Low confidence
in timing of the return of low CIGS vsbys (could be off by three
hours with nearly equal chance of low MVFR and ifr flight
category. There is a 20 percent chance that low CIGS vsbys prevail
through the TAF period.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in taf. There is a 30 percent chance
of low MVFR CIGS vsbys mainly after 09z.

Marine 24 220 am...

for the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. SCA winds will likely continue through late Saturday
with possible brief lulls each morning. Local gale gusts are
possible from the channel islands to point piedras blancas. There
is a chance of SCA winds continuing through to Monday.

For the inner waters, high confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of point sal, northwest winds will increase with
sca level winds likely each afternoon and evening through late
Friday. For Saturday and Sunday, winds are expected to drop below
sca levels. For the waters south of point conception, winds and
seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

Patchy dense fog this morning may more widespread across all
waters this weekend.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 3
am pdt Saturday for zone 645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Saturday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
an extended heat wave is likely across the area this weekend and
the first half of next week. Significant heat impacts will be
possible next week as well as elevated fire danger.

Public... Thompson
aviation... Munroe
marine... Munroe
synopsis... Thompson
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 54 mi65 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1012.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 67 mi31 min S 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 63°F1012.8 hPa61°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bakersfield, Meadows Field Airport, CA27 mi47 minNNW 410.00 miFair78°F54°F43%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from BFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmS343W8NW7NW10NW9NW6W9NW7NW5N4NW5N5N6CalmNW3NW4
1 day agoN5N5CalmW4NW4W3S33SW6NW8W8NW11NW9NW10NW10NW9NW6NE3NE6N5CalmNW5N4E4
2 days agoN3N3N5N3CalmW7NW3NW44CalmN5W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:01 AM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:29 PM PDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 PM PDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.5542.71.60.70.40.71.42.43.54.34.84.84.33.52.61.91.61.72.233.84.6

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:54 AM PDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:22 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM PDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM PDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.653.82.51.30.40.20.51.42.53.74.654.94.33.42.41.71.31.52.1344.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.