Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ford City, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:48PM Monday December 18, 2017 1:09 AM PST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:11AMMoonset 6:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 820 Pm Pst Sun Dec 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Monday...
Tonight..Eastern portion, N to ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Western portion, nw to N winds 5 to 15 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Areas of smoke.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. Areas of smoke.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds, becoming W and building to 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ600 820 Pm Pst Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 7 pm pst...there was a 1026 mb high 550 nm W of Monterey, extending inland to a 1028 high over nevada. Weak low pressure was over the S california coast. Gusty offshore winds are expected nearshore from ventura to santa Monica and over the san pedro channel tonight. Smoke from the thomas fire may reduce visibilities down to 2 nm for portions of the coastal waters near and south of point conception. The smoke will move eastward across the inner waters S of point conception Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ford City, CA
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location: 35.16, -119.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 180641
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1041 pm pst Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
Dry and more tranquil weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with
patchy morning frost in the coldest locations. Another round of
strong offshore winds will affect the region beginning on Wednesday
and likely continuing through the end of the week. There is a slight
chance of light rain along the central coast Wednesday morning.

Short term (tdy-tue)
high pressure aloft is building into the area from the north as a
trough of low pressure continues to exit the region. Offshore flow
remains in place across the area this evening. Model solutions
suggest the surface pressure gradient tightening again later
tonight with enough upper-level support to warrant the extension
of the wind advisory. Winds are expected to restrengthen between
10 pm tonight and 4 am Monday morning, then diminish through
Monday morning. Winds have fallen below criteria currently but
will push back into wind advisory criteria late tonight.

A dry air mass in place with the offshore flow pattern and
clearing skies will allow for overnight temperatures to fall near
or below freezing across the interior valleys and wind-sheltered
areas. Radiative cooling effects will be more efficient overnight
the next several nights. For late tonight and early Monday
morning, a hard freeze warning was added for the cuyama valley, a
freeze warning for the santa ynez valley, and a frost advisory for
the central coast.

*** from previous discussion ***
the upper level ridge will then persist over the area Mon night
and tue. A broad upper level trof is forecast to move into NRN ca
tue night then slide SE thru central ca for wed, with swrn ca on
the SRN part of the upper trof. A weakening cold front associated
with this upper level trof will move into the forecast area wed
afternoon and early evening.

Gusty mainly sub-advisory NE winds will prevail across vtu l.A.

Counties tonight into Mon morning, then weak to increasing
onshore flow can be expected Mon afternoon thru tue. Skies will be
mostly clear across the region thru tue, except for areas of
smoke persisting in the vicinity of the thomas fire.

It looks like marine layer clouds will redevelop and expand over the
coastal waters into the coastal plain Tue night into Wed morning.

The weak cold front is forecast to bring cloudiness to much of the
forecast area on wed, along with a slight chance of showers over
portions of slo sba counties Wed afternoon. The passage of the
front will also increase a northerly flow over for region by late
wed into Wed evening, with gusty winds possible in the sba county
mtns and S coast, possibly to advisory levels. Gusty NW winds should
also affect the l.A. Vtu county mtns by Wed evening, especially
along the i-5 corridor. These winds should turn more N to NE later
wed night with gusty winds possible over the vlys and possibly
coastal areas of vtu l.A. Counties. Winds in these areas could
approach or reach advisory levels at times. The gusty offshore
flow will clear out any marine layer clouds Wed night.

Temps are expected to be slightly above normal for many areas on mon
and tue, altho Tue will be the cooler of the two days. Temps will
drop considerably on Wed with temps expected to be near normal to
slightly below normal across the region.

Long term (wed-sat)
the ec and GFS still are showing some run to run inconsistencies,
but on today's 12z run the large scale features are not too
different until sun. The models agree that the upper trof from wed
will be progressive and move E of SRN ca on late Thu and Thu night.

Weak, flat upper ridging will move into the area late Thu night and
fri. A large upper level trof is forecast to approach the area from
the NRN great basin on sat. For sun, the GFS stalls a large
positively tilted upper trof over the central great basin thru
central ca, while the ec continues to gradually deepen the upper
trof into SRN ca. The models do bring some clouds and possible
showers to the area on Sat night into early sun, but confidence in
any pcpn is low this far out, so kept pops out of the forecast.

Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region Thu thru
sun. There will be gusty N to NE winds especially over vtu l.A.

Counties Thu morning, otherwise winds will turn lighter with some
onshore trends during the period. Temps are forecast to have a
slight warming trend during the period, with Thu being the coolest
day. Highs should be slightly below normal to near normal
overall on thu, then warm to slightly above normal across the
region next weekend. It also looks like a dry air mass and clear
skies will promote cold overnight lows Wed night and Thu night,
where several sheltered valleys and coastal areas could have
frosts or freezes.

Aviation 18 06z
at 05z at klax, there was no marine layer or marine inversion.

Vfr conditions are expected throughout the period, except for a chance
of MVFR conditions in smoke at santa barbara and ventura county
terminals. Periods light to moderate wind shear and turbulence are
possible at all terminals through 20z.

Klax... High confidence in the 06z TAF withVFR conds through the pd.

There is a 20 percent chc of east winds greater than 8 kt between
09z and 15z.

Kbur... High confidence in the 06z TAF withVFR conds through the pd.

Marine 17 900 pm.

Across the outer waters... Conditions will remain below small
craft advisory (sca) criteria through Wednesday morning. Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday, north winds up to 25 knots are
expected. Fairly good confidence in this forecast. Low confidence
in offshore winds developing Friday into next weekend.

Across the inner waters south of point conception... Northeast
winds will likely continue with gusts to 25 knots nearshore from
ventura to santa monica and across the san pedro channel, through
early Monday morning. Choppy seas are also expected during this
time. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels through
Friday.

There will continue to be areas of smoke from the thomas fire
over portions of the coastal waters, mainly through the santa
barbara channel and over portions of the outer waters. Visibilities
could locally drop to 2 nm or lower at times. Starting Monday,
weakening offshore flow early with onshore flow in the afternoon
will push smoke toward ventura and far western l.A. County.

Fire weather 17 300 pm.

A strong santa ana wind event impacted ventura and los angeles
counties today, with alignment of the offshore pressure gradient,
upper level wind support, and cold air advection. The lax-daggett
gradient peaked at -5.8 mb this morning. Observations this morning
showed damaging gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains, and 50 to
60 mph across portions of the coast and valleys. Critical red
flag conditions can be expected for much of los angeles and
ventura counties to continue through 8 pm this evening. Any new
fire ignitions could bring very rapid fire spread, long range
spotting, and extreme fire behavior into the evening hours.

There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on Tuesday with
moderate humidity recovery across coastal and valley areas. Another upper
level trough will dig through california on Wednesday, with a weak cold
front bringing a slight chance of rain to areas north of point conception.

For areas south of point conception, including the thomas fire area,
there will be cooler temperatures, higher humidities, and increasing
west to northwest winds through the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, northwest to north are expected to peak
as upper level wind support, cold air advection, and north-south pressure
gradients align. Wind speeds across the santa barbara county mountains
and south coast will have the potential to be fairly similar to
Saturday morning's event, with sustained winds in the 20 to 35 mph range,
and gusts generally ranging between 40 and 55 mph, except isolated gusts
to 60 mph across favored ridgetops. Gusty north winds are expected to
continue Thursday into Thursday night across much of santa barbara
county, and possibly continuing into Friday. Gusty northwest to north
winds will also impact other mountain areas, including the highway 33
and interstate 5 corridors. While humidity levels will likely remain
above 15 percent with this event, there is still the potential for
critical fire weather conditions across the santa barbara county
mountains and south coast considering the potential for strong winds
and continued very dry fuels.

Later in the week into next weekend, confidence remains low for the
potential santa ana wind pattern as computer models continue to widely
fluctuate on the timing, duration, and strength of the santa ana
winds.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Frost advisory in effect until 9 am pst Monday for zones
34-35. (see laxnpwlox).

Freeze warning in effect until 9 am pst Monday for zone 36. (see laxnpwlox).

Hard freeze warning in effect until 9 am pst Monday for zone
38. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 9 am pst Monday for zones
44>46-53-54-88. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Monday for
zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (tue-sat)
critical fire weather conditions are possible with gusty
sundowner winds Wednesday night and gusty offshore winds
Thursday and Friday. Frosts and freezes will be possible in
sheltered areas Wednesday night and Thursday night.

Public... Sirard
aviation... Db
marine... Smith
fire... Gomberg
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 54 mi94 min NNE 4.1 G 4.1 53°F 1019.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 67 mi40 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 59°F 60°F1019.7 hPa55°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bakersfield, Meadows Field Airport, CA27 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair40°F26°F58%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from BFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E5SE6CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNW6NW6E4CalmNW7NW11N7NW3N3N7N4E4SE6E5CalmE5
1 day agoSE16
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NE3NE7S6CalmE3E7E5SW7W5CalmSW6S6S3S5SW3CalmE5SE5E4E5CalmCalmSE6
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalmSE4SE4SE4SE4S3SW3CalmCalmCalmNE4SE3N3N7NW5NW8SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:34 AM PST     2.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM PST     5.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:07 PM PST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:34 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:55 PM PST     3.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.62.32.32.63.344.85.45.65.34.53.320.7-0.1-0.5-0.30.31.22.12.83.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:32 AM PST     2.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:47 AM PST     5.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:58 PM PST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:33 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:29 PM PST     3.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.62.32.32.73.44.35.15.75.95.54.63.31.90.6-0.2-0.5-0.20.51.52.53.33.73.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.