Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ford City, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:19PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 5:20 PM PDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:56AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 216 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less, becoming 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 30 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 216 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 2 pm pdt...a 1024 mb high was located 800 nm west of san francisco, and a 1010 mb low was over se california. An upper level low moving over the area will bring a slight chance of Thunderstorms to nw portions of the coastal waters through this evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ford City, CA
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location: 35.16, -119.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 172153
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
253 pm pdt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Light offshore flow will bring above normal temperatures through
today. Patchy fog and low clouds return to the coast Thursday and
Friday as temperatures cool to near normal late in the week.

Temperatures increase again this weekend and into the following
week as another offshore wind event develops over the region.

Short term (tdy-fri)
an area of elevated moisture and instability has been teasing our
outer water boundary 60-100 miles west of pt conception all day
but as of yet no strikes within our forecast area. The moisture is
all above 650mb which is roughly 12kft and very dry below that. So
the chances for lightning are higher than receiving measurable
rain but even those are low and marginal for putting in slight
chance given the lack of easterly progress with the ridge likely
playing a role there. But will keep pops as they are for sba slo
counties and add the ventura la mountains overnight as that wave
passes through the area. Can't rule out a stray storm outside
those areas, and including the coastal waters, but chances are too
low to include at this time. Again, main threat with these is the
dry lightning and possibly some brief gusty winds. Most of the
moisture and instability aloft moves east of our area after 12z so
for now no thunderstorm chances on wed.

Gradients continue to trend onshore today and highs across most
coast valley areas were cooler. This trend expected to continue
through the end of the week as the ridge breakdown continues and a
trough passes north of the area on Friday. Highs expected to be
back to normal by Thursday and slightly below normal Friday.

Marine lyr expected to make a partial return Thu and fri. The
front is expected to wash out before reaching slo county so no
rain expected except possibly some north slope showers Friday.

Issued a wind advisory for this afternoon for SRN sb county as
northerly gradients are increasing there. Not much upper support
and winds drop off fairly quick later in the evening but should be
a good enough burst for some brief advisory level winds across the
sb south coast zone, mainly west of goleta. Low end wind
advisories may be needed each of the next few evenings as well,
peaking in strength Friday evening.

Long term (sat-tue)
northerly flow increases behind the trough passage Friday then
shifts to northeast Sunday through Tuesday. Earlier model
solutions had suggested a more southerly trajectory to the trough
but the last couple days the models have favored a more
progressive solution with less upper level support for the
offshore gradients. So this next offshore event is looking a lot
like the last one, but even warmer with a stronger ridge
developing. Temps will start warming Saturday and continue to warm
through early next week. By Tuesday, which could be the start of
the world series in los angeles, highs downtown are expected to
reach or exceed 100 degrees while valleys are a few degrees warmer
than that. If the current forecast holds we'll likely need heat
advisories or possibly warnings for much of la ventura counties
mon tue.

Aviation 17 1800z.

At 1800z, there was a surface based inversion at klax. The top of
the inversion was located at 1500 feet with a temperature of 28c.

Mid to high level clouds across the region today with a slight
chance of tstms this afternoon and evening across slo and sba
counties and NW vtu county. Any TSTM could produce wind gusts
over 40 kt. Except for possible brief MVFR conds in any tstms,
mainlyVFR conditions are expected thru the period... Except for
a small chance of marine layer CIGS over coastal la county late
tonight Wed morning.

Klax... Moderate to high confidence in the 18z TAF withVFR
conditions expected thru the period... Except for a 20% chance of
MVFR conds after 12z wed.

Kbur... High confidence in the 18z TAF withVFR conditions
expected thru the period... Except for a 10% chance of MVFR ifr
conds after 12z wed.

Marine 17 300 pm.

High confidence in SCA level NW winds across the outer waters
through late tonight. SCA winds are likely over the nearshore
waters north of point sal, and the western sba channel later this
afternoon through late evening, diminishing after midnight. There
is a 30% chance winds will rise to SCA levels over western
portions of pzz655 later today as well. Seas are expected to be
choppy throughout the waters. Winds should drop below SCA levels
by dawn Wednesday in most areas - but will likely increase again
by Wednesday afternoon to moderate to strong speeds through the
period. An upper disturbance will bring a slight chance of tstms
to portions of the waters from western pzz650 and northwestward.

There will be a chance of gales across the outer waters late
Thursday through Saturday, with SCA conditions likely nearshore.

A large storm off western canada will generate 40 foot seas in
that area. This will produce a large long-period NW swell, moving
into our waters by Friday. Seas up to 15 feet are likely, with 20
foot seas possible across the outer and northern waters. There
will likely be dangerous breaking waves on the central coast
through the weekend with dangerous conditions in near harbors.

Fire weather 17 300 pm.

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of southwest
california through this evening as weak offshore flow continues
to bring very warm and dry conditions... With widespread single digit
humidities today across inland areas. Some lightning strikes have been
detected off the coast of point conception today associated with a
weak upper level disturbance and increasing subtropical mid level
moisture. As this system passes over our area this afternoon and
tonight, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across san luis
obispo, santa barbara, and western ventura counties... As well as the
mountains of los angeles county. Due to the very dry lower
levels of the atmosphere, any storms that develop will be capable
of producing isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic
downdraft winds.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern santa barbara
county much of this week. This afternoon and evening, wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across
the santa ynez range and santa barbara south coast. In the wake of
a passing upper level trough, there is the potential for stronger
sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From Sunday through next Tuesday, there is the potential for a prolonged
duration of gusty santa ana winds with hot and very dry conditions. While
there is still some uncertainty with the strength of this upcoming
santa ana event (which will depend on the upper level wind support),
there will be the potential for at least moderate santa ana winds,
triple digit heat, and humidities falling into the single digits and
teens which could bring a return of critical fire weather conditions
to portions of southwest california.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from Friday morning through
Friday evening for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening for
zones 39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through Wednesday evening
for zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Wednesday for
zones 645-650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 6 am pdt Wednesday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
hot temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions are
expected Sunday into early next week as another santa ana wind
event develops. Large surf is possible at central coast beaches
between Friday and Sunday. Strong rip currents are possible.

Public... Mw
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith
fire... Gomberg
synopsis... Sweet
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 54 mi50 min NE 5.1 G 7 70°F 1013.1 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 67 mi40 min W 16 G 19 73°F 66°F1013.2 hPa58°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bakersfield, Meadows Field Airport, CA27 mi26 minWNW 99.00 miFair85°F43°F23%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from BFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6N3NE4CalmNE9SE5E3CalmNE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S4W3NW4NW5N4NW11W9
1 day agoNW9NW4CalmNE3SE4E5SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS4SE4CalmCalmW5SW5W6W9W8
2 days agoNW7NW3NE4NE5NE6SE4E3E5SW3CalmNE4E4N3CalmS3CalmCalm4W4W5NW7NW7N9NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
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Tue -- 02:34 AM PDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:57 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:00 AM PDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:04 PM PDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:35 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM PDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.10.50.5123.14.255.354.23.121.20.81.11.82.83.94.754.84.1

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:32 AM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:54 AM PDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:00 PM PDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:34 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM PDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.110.30.30.923.34.55.45.65.24.33.11.910.711.834.155.354.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.