Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vandemere, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:20PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:53 AM EDT (09:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:03PMMoonset 6:10AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 348 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers early this morning, then showers late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandemere, NC
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location: 35.17, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200838
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
438 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will develop to the south today and lift north
across the area tonight. The low will lift north of the region
Thursday pushing a cold front offshore. Another, mainly dry cold
front will push across the area late Friday. High pressure
will build into the area this weekend. Low pressure is expected
to impact the region early to mid next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 330 am wed... Latest sfc analysis shows 1030mb high
pressure centered over the mid-atlantic and NE us extending
through the SE us, with area of low pressure beginning to
develop along a stalled frontal boundary lingering along the se
coast. Low pressure will continue to strengthen to the south
today while the associated trough pushes onshore later today.

Latest radar imagery shows area of sprinkles or light showers
blossoming across most of the area this morning, with heavier
precip approaching the southern outer banks. Numerous showers
expected today, with coverage increasing throughout the day.

Increased pops to likely categorical. Moderate to locally heavy
rain will be possible, ESP late in the day as column saturates.

Highs today in the 50s today with mostly cloudy skies and
precip. Continued breezy to windy in the morning, ESP along the
coast, then winds should slowly diminish this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 330 am wed... A robust upper trough will approach from the
the west and this will aid in lifting a strengthening area of
low pressure across eastern nc tonight into early Thursday.

Numerous showers expected to continue, with periods of moderate
to locally heavy rain possible. Precip will likely be tapering
off from SW to NE late tonight and early thu. Could see
isolated thunderstorms develop east of the low, along the coast.

Instability looks limited but modest shear develops with 40-50
kt low level jet. Overnight lows ranging from the low mid 40s
inland to upper 40s low 50s along the coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 4 am Wednesday... An area of low pressure will lift north
of the area Thu with the heaviest rain moving offshore. A mainly
dry cold front will cross the region late fri. High pressure
will build over the area this weekend bringing dry wx and a
warming trend Sun into mon. The next system look to impact the
area Mon night and tue.

Thursday through Friday night... Low pressure is progged to be
over the northern coastal plain Thursday morning which will lift
north of the area through the day. The heaviest showers will be
across eastern portions of the fa early but will push offshore
through the morning with precip chances diminishing as the dry
slot moves over the region. Still could see a few lingering
showers through Thu evening until the upper trough axis pushes
across the area. Expect dry conditions Friday but models are now
showing another embedded shortwave and cold front moving south
through the great lakes and pushing across the region Friday
evening. Expect a dry frontal passage with moistening limited to
just above 850 mb and with a very dry sub-cloud layer in place,
any precip is expected to evaporate before reaching the ground.

Temps expected to be a few degrees below normal with high in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will be in the 40s Thu night with
mid to upper 30s inland behind the front Fri night.

Saturday through Sunday night... The upper trough slowly moves
offshore Sat with an upper ridge and surface high pressure
building over the area Sat night into early sun. The high will
drift offshore late Sun and Sun night with a complex system
approaching from the west. Dry conditions continue over the
weekend with temps remaining below normal Saturday with highs in
the mid 50s to around 60 but will begin to see a warming trend
sun with southerly flow developing in the afternoon with the
high moving offshore.

Monday and Tuesday... A complex low pressure system is expected
to impact the region early to mid next week bringing a return
of unsettled weather, however details and timing remain
uncertain as model spread and run to run consistency remains
poor. Precip could start as early as Mon but best chances are
looking to be Mon night into tue. Temps will likely be above
normal Mon with southerly flow persisting ahead of the low
pressure system and expect highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Temps expected to be cooler Tue with more clouds and precip in
the area.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 315 am wed... Mix ofVFR and MVFR across the TAF sites
early this morning. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate
through the day, with widespread sub-vfr conditions likely to
develop at all sites by late morning and continue through the
period. Ifr conditions will be possible, with best chances late
this afternoon into tonight. Scattered to numerous showers
through the period, with best chances this afternoon and
tonight. Llws could develop late tonight and early Thu morning
as low level jet strengthens.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 415 am Wednesday... Precip will taper off from SW to ne
thu as low lifts N of region and shld grad seeVFR conditions
return.VFR expected Fri through Sun as high pres builds across
with dry air over region.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 330 am wed... Latest surface and buoy data indicate NE nne
winds 20-30 kt with seas 6-9 ft across the waters. Gusty winds
and elevated seas will continue through tonight. An area of low
pressure will strengthen to the south today, then lift north
just inland from the coast tonight and early Thu morning.

Associated trough will slowly push through the waters this
afternoon and evening, with flow veering and becoming E SE 15-25
kt by this evening and SE SW 15-25 kt early thu. Gusty winds
this morning will diminish a bit to 15-25 kt this afternoon.

Will keep gale warnings in place for the next few hours, still
seeing some gusts up to 35 kt across the outer central and
southern waters. Scas continue for the northern waters, sounds
and alligator rvr. Nwps shows seas building up to 12 ft across
the outer southern and central waters this evening.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... Low pressure lifts north of the area
thu with winds becoming wsw around 10-20 kt during the
afternoon. Seas around 6-10 ft early will subside to 4-7 ft by
thu evening. Breezy wnw winds around 10-25 kt continue thu
night into fri, then a dry cold front will push across the
waters Fri evening with CAA bringing NW winds around 15-25 kt.

Seas around 4-7 ft are expected to continue into Sat morning.

High pressure builds into the region sat, then becomes centered
across the area late Sat night and early sun, then pushes
offshore by Sun afternoon. Expect NW winds to 10-20 sat
afternoon, becoming variable less than 15 kt late Sat night and
sun morning as the high migrates across the area, then becomes
southerly Sun afternoon as the high moves offshore. Seas are
expected to subside to below 6 ft by Sat evening and to 2-4 ft
by Sun morning.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 am wed... Persistent gusty NE flow combined with high
astronomical tides could lead to minor water level rises for
areas adjacent to the southern pamlico sound through
this afternoon... From downeast carteret county over to areas
along the neuse river and adj. Creeks. Rises not expected to
exceed 0.5 ft above ground or 1 ft above normal at this time.

Gusty SE flow late today and tonight will lead to higher than
normal water levels along the south facing beaches and may also
need high surf advisory as waves in surf zone approach 8 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Thursday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz130-
131.

Gale warning until 8 am edt this morning for amz152-154-156-
158.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Rf sk
aviation... Sk cqd
marine... Sk cqd
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 31 mi36 min NNE 15 G 22
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 38 mi54 min N 22 G 25 47°F 1022.8 hPa (-2.1)39°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 50 mi36 min NNE 13 G 24

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC14 mi58 minNNE 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast47°F39°F74%1023.5 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC22 mi60 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast44°F34°F68%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE8E6Calm54SE7NE3NW11
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2 days agoN3CalmNE5NE8NE10NE12E7NE7446E3E5N4E7E4E5CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:06 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:07 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:36 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:29 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.2-0.2-0.4-0.30.211.72.32.52.421.30.60-0.3-0.4-00.71.42.12.52.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:06 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:58 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:28 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.90.3-0.1-0.3-0.30.10.71.41.92.22.11.71.20.70.2-0.2-0.3-0.10.41.11.72.12.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.