Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vandemere, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:02PM Saturday November 17, 2018 7:30 PM EST (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 621 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandemere, NC
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location: 35.17, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 172315
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
615 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will ridge into the region through the weekend. A
trough of low pressure will move along the coast Monday. High
pressure will build over the area Tuesday through Friday. Next
storm system may affect the region by next Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 615 pm sat... Only change was to increase sky cover later
tonight as all mdls shows batch of cirrus to the SW spreading
across after 05z. These clouds will likely not impact expected
low temps.

Prev disc... High pressure will continue to build over the
region from the north tonight resulting in another quiet and
cool night. Excellent radiational cooling conditions expected
again, especially inland where winds may remain calm coupled
with clear skies. Could see areas of frost and patchy fog inland
again, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 30s with low
to mid 40s along the beaches. Fly in the ointment is a
developing coastal trough taking shape offshore overnight. Some
of the models develop some light precipitation and brush it
along the shore from the crystal coast to the southern outer
banks late tonight and early Sunday. While this unlikely, what
we will probably see is some increasing low level stratocu along
the coast late tonight and early Sunday morning. Winds will
also likely increase along the coast late so coastal overnight
lows likely to occur before midnight when winds will be
lightest. Further inland not sure if the gradient will be tight
enough to allow mixing below the strong nocturnal inversion so
have just indicated a leveling off of temps late as an area of
high level cirrus clouds move through.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As of 225 pm sat... Continued quiet and bit milder weather on
tap Sunday as high pressure continues to ridge into the area
from the north. As mentioned above, can't rule out a few showers
immediate coast with the developing offshore trough of low
pressure but not seeing a strong enough signal in the models to
include it in the forecast at this time. Skies will range from
mostly clear inland, to partly to maybe occasionally mostly
cloudy along the coast. Warmer highs in the lower to middle 60s
are expected.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 245 pm sat... The surface ridge over the southern
appalachians will continue to dissipate, then Sunday night into
Monday a weak coastal trof will develop along and track across
the E nc coast. High pres builds back in late Monday through the
rest of the period, with next low pres system possible by next
weekend.

Sunday night Monday... Tricky forecast this period as there is
still wide model disagreement. Have inc pops quite a bit
however, as ecm and resultant ensemble members do indicate a
high pop low QPF scenario. This makes sense given the high
low mid level rh vals above 75%. Held off advertising likelies
for all but coastal locales, as other model guide like GFS nam
continue to be rather dry.

Monday night through Friday... Dry weather forecast this period
as high pressure ridges into the area. Temps will be mild to
start, with 60s for highs on tue, then a dry cold front moves
through mid week, bringing below climo temps to the east coast.

Temps dip into the 50s for highs on wed, then some upper 40s to
lower 50s for thanksgiving day and Friday. First freeze of the
season may come to parts of E nc on Fri morning as lows fcst to
drop to the lower 30s inland, remaining in the low 40s coast.

Saturday... 17 12z global model suite indicating digging trough
across the southern ms valley, which may spawn sfc cyclogenesis
across the southeastern states and our next precipitation
chance.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 615 pm sat... PredominantlyVFR thru period. Expect will
see some patchy fog and subVFR vsbys again espcly pgv... However
does appear some high clouds will cross later tonight and that
may limit the threat some. Fog that does form will lift quickly
Sunday morning. Increasing low mid lvl moisture will lead to
more clouds Sun espcly cst but CIGS expected to be inVFR range.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 245 pm sat... MostlyVFR dry conditions are expected
through the long term. A coastal trof will bring some rain late
sun night and ESP Monday, and may drop to subVFR at times in
lower stratus. Any low clouds move out by late Monday as the
trof scoots offshore.VFR skc Tue through thanksgiving.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 615 pm sat... Fcst looks good with NE flow increasing to
solid 15 kts overnight SRN half of region.

Prev disc... Two weather systems will affect the marine weather
through Sunday. The strongest system is high pressure to the
north continuing to ridge south into the region as it moves
offshore during Sunday. The second feature is a weak trough of
low pressure that is forecast to take shape overnight and
Sunday. As this system develops, it is forecast to increase the
ne flow tonight and Monday. The models differed on the timing,
location of strongest flow, and the strength and duration of
this flow. Consensus of the models indicated that the location
of strongest winds will be mainly over the southern and central
waters west to the southern and eastern pamlico sound. Most of
the models indicate the strongest sustained winds will be around
15 kt from tonight through early Sunday afternoon with only a
couple of the higher resolution models stronger. Based on this
will keep conditions below advisory levels with mainly 2-4 ft
seas tonight and Sunday with some 5 ft seas expected over the
outer southern and central waters.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 245 pm sat... A coastal trof will affect the waters Sunday
night into Monday, then high pressure builds in from the
northwest for the remainder of the period. Overall flow pattern
through the period will be westerly and then northerly, with the
exception of Sunday night into Mon when winds temporarily
become SW due to the coastal trof. Seas will average 2-4 feet
through wed. Reinforcing dry cold front pushes through by
thanksgiving day, with SCA conditions developing as N winds fcst
to be 20-25 kt with seas 6+ ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf jme
short term... Jme
long term... Tl
aviation... Rf tl
marine... Rf jme tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 31 mi31 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 62°F1025.3 hPa (+0.9)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 38 mi31 min N 9.9 G 12 1024.9 hPa (+0.7)
41063 46 mi31 min Calm G 0
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 50 mi31 min NE 7 G 11 53°F 60°F1024.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC22 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair45°F43°F93%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3N4N8N5E4NE7NE6NE5NE4E4SE5SE3Calm
1 day agoW10
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2 days agoNE10NE9N13N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 12:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:44 AM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:57 PM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:37 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.71.91.91.81.61.20.90.70.60.70.91.31.71.921.91.71.310.60.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:43 AM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:30 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:56 PM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.711.41.61.61.61.41.10.80.60.50.50.711.41.61.71.61.51.20.90.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.