Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vandemere, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:39 AM EDT (06:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 3:01AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 111 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then scattered tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Scattered tstms with a slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandemere, NC
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location: 35.17, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 250526
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
126 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the southeast states will move northeast Wednesday
and push a cold front through the area Wednesday night. Several weak
disturbances will affect the area late Thursday into the
weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 115 am wed... Low pressure has now moved into central nc,
with a cold front extending south so the myrtle beach area, and
a warm front extending to the NE up into the southern delmarva
region. A surface trough is pivoting around the low and through
eastern nc early this morning, with showers and thunderstorms
along along it. Most of the convection remains offshore, however
some of the storms may skirt the outer banks over the next
couplehours. Have added the thunder mention to the grids, and
adjusted pops overnight based on high res models, which show a
decreasing trend towards morning. Temperatures are mild, and in
the low to mid 60s across the region. Expect lows to be close to
current readings, only in the upper 50s inland and the low 60s
along the coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 115 am wed... Main short wave will pivot through nc during
the day, and with areas still under cyclonic flow, isolated
showers in the morning will become scattered in the afternoon,
and have inc pops to 30-50% interior to 20% coast. Have added
the mention of thunderstorms as sufficient buoyancy will be
present during the afternoon and evening especially north of us
264. Otherwise, warm conditions expected despite the mostly
cloudy skies with highs generally 70-77, warmest inland and
coolest obx.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
As of 330 am Tuesday... Weakening upper low just west of area
early Wed will move east across area during the day, then will
be followed a dampening short wave trough Thu night into early
Friday and then a stronger trough Saturday. This will keep
isolated to scattered shower threat in forecast that period,
then dry high pressure will build in Sat night into Monday.

Wednesday night through Saturday... Upper trough energy and pw
around 1 to 1.25 inch support chance pops for scattered shower
threat mainly Wed and again Thu night into Friday with mainly
slight chance pops for isolated activity rest of period. Some
model differences on surface low development with short wave thu
night into Friday with GFS stronger with inland low while ecmwf
and NAM support weaker low near coast. Temps near or slightly
below normal during period with lows mainly 50s and highs low-
mid 70s inland and 65-70 coast.

Sat night through Monday... Stronger upper trough passage with
associated cold front will bring in slightly cooler and drier
air mass during period, with some inland lows in 40s and highs
around 70.

Aviation 05z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday night ...

as of 120 am wed... A mix of MVFR andVFR conditions are expected
for the TAF period. There may be some brief periods of ifr
across the coastal plain overnight, but it should be
predominately MVFR.VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites
currently, with some scattered clouds 1000 to 2000 ft present.

Expect the coverage of this deck to increase overnight, leading
to MVFR ceilings inland, including kpgv and kiso. Closer to the
coast,VFR ceilings should persist through the TAF period. There
could also be some patchy fog developing inland, so have
included in the forecast across the coastal plain.VFR
conditions are expected to return later this morning, and some
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the
day.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... Conditions will improve to mostlyVFR
through period, but the threat of isolated to scattered showers
will continue each day with a possibility of brief sub-vfr
conditions.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 1030 pm tue... Updated zone package to drop gales from
oregon inlet to ocracoke and replace with sca, dropped SCA from
albemarle sound and alligator river, and cancelled high surf
advisory for carteret and onslow counties.

Prev disc... As low moves away to the northeast tonight, winds
will slowly diminish though seas will take much longer to
subside. Several headlines expiring this evening as conditions
slowly improve, so will be sending out several updated zone
packages through the evening.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... .Slow moving surface low will move
through Wed evening. Winds shift briefly to northerly behind
front early Thu but then some model differences with handling of
next surface low results in low confidence forecast of winds
rest of period. GFS indicates deepening surface low moving sw-ne
well inland of area Friday which results in moderate to strong
s-sw winds over waters. ECMWF and NAM indicate weaker surface
development along coast with stronger winds remaining offshore.

Models do agree on stronger front moving through late Saturday
followed by decent surge of northerly winds Sat night. Given
model differences, leaned to blend of superblend and previous
forecast for thu-sat period.

Elevated seas will gradually subside below 6 ft Wed night into
thu, then generally 3-4 ft rest of period but low confidence
forecast for thu-sat per above.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 130 am wed... Minor beach erosion, rough surf, dangerous
shore break, and high rip current risk are expected to persist
today across the local beaches.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz095-098-103-104.

High surf advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ncz103-
104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for amz150-152-
154.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Thursday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Tl sgk
near term... Sgk
short term... Tl
long term... Jbm tl
aviation... Jbm sgk
marine... Jbm hsa tl
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 31 mi58 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 63°F1009.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 38 mi40 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 1009.8 hPa (-0.5)
41063 46 mi160 min SW 16 G 21 72°F 1009.3 hPa (-2.2)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 50 mi58 min SSE 16 G 20 67°F 62°F1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE8
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N5
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G9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC22 mi46 minSSE 36.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7SE7SE8SE7
G17
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G25
6SE5E8E10SE5SE5SE6SE5SE7SE9SE7SE5SE4S4SE3
1 day agoNE6E6NE5E6E5E5E7E8
G17
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E11E8E7E8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE655E9SE8E7SE86E9
G15
E5E7E5E6E3NE5E6E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.71.21.72.12.221.71.20.70.30.10.10.40.91.51.92.22.11.91.40.90.4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:10 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:51 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.10.511.41.81.91.81.51.10.70.30.100.20.71.21.61.91.81.61.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.