Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:44PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:48 AM EST (07:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:19AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 230549
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1249 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
Dry high pressure will overspread the region and persist into the
weekend. Another moist cold front will affect the region over the
weekend, crossing from the west on Sunday.

Near term through today
As of 1230 am est... A broad area of pre frontal cellular showers
continue to traverse the fa east i-26 this morning. Not seeing any
deep convec nor thunder with this system. Laps analysis... Href
members and other hires models dont indicate a likely thunder chance
with low-end to nil cape. So... Thunder mention has been cut back.

There are some interesting velocity sigs... With broad rotation and
short lived bow echoes... Tho nothing very acute warranting anything
besides an sps mention. Models are also less enthused about the
actual FROPA line segment progged to cross the area by 12z or
so. Expect sfc winds to become gusty this morning over all areas
as strong hipres begins to build in from the west.

As of 1000 pm: water-vapor imagery shows a partially occluded
cyclone centered over illinois. The cold front associated with this
system extends south thru the lower ohio valley, middle tn, and
al, as evidenced by slight wind shift and dewpoint gradient. Over
our cwfa, a fairly contiguous area of showers is being forced
by upper divergence and dpva, with additional enhancement due
to brisk southerly low-level flow. Updated overnight pops using
latest cam output as a guide. In particular the hrrr continues to
advect the current activity to the ne. With continued moist flow,
dewpoints keep rising overnight over the piedmont, and this leads
to development of SBCAPE in the early morning hours, per NAM and
rap. As we have been messaging for several days, this is concerning
given the robust LLJ and associated low-level shear parameters. Spc
suddenly placed focus on our area with a marginal risk on the
evening day 1 outlook update. It certainly can't be ruled out
that a few isolated broken-s type structures could develop along
the sfc cold front when it arrives. That said, over the past few
cycles the cams have been depicting only disorganized activity
with the front. Also the hrrr has nearly zero sbcape.

Winds within the LLJ may produce some problems above 3500 ft. Day
shift extended the advisory to 11z in collaboration with neighbors;
that product will be updated shortly. Temps will be elevated
overnight under clouds and strong llvl waa; revised values are
based on short-term consensus product and reflect steady temps in
the east, and onset of CAA in the west.

On Tuesday, there will be a brief window of strong gusts right
behind the fropa, as 925 mb veer to swly and remain in the 35-40 kt
range with caa. This looks to be around daybreak, then winds should
subside a bit and continue to veer to nwly by late morning. Some
sort of wind advisory may be needed in the mountains and possibly
in the piedmont early Tuesday, if guidance trends stronger with the
llvl winds. For now, will let the later shifts assess the threat
and make a decision. By the aftn, skies will clear out, except
right along the tn border, with NW flow bringing some wrap-around
moisture. A slight chc pop for ra sn showers returns by the end
of the day. Temps will be noticeably cooler in the high terrain
with the caa, while the piedmont should remain above normal with
help of downslope warming.

Short term tonight through Thursday
As of 135 pm est Monday: a weak short wave crosses the area Tuesday
night as the upper low moves NE across new england. A stronger short
wave moves into the area Wednesday then east of the area Wednesday
night. Heights rise Thursday as a ridge axis moves east toward the
area. At the surface, a moist northwesterly upslope flow remains
over the mountains Tuesday night. The pressure gradient slowly
relaxes as the cold front moves east of the area and high pressure
to the west slowly moves east. This keeps clouds and scattered to
isolated snow showers along the tn border with clearing skies
elsewhere. The clouds will linger across the mountains and perhaps
some isolated snow showers along the tn border of the northern
mountains Wednesday as the second short wave moves through. Do not
expect any significant accumulation with these snow showers, but
cannot rule out up to an inch across the highest elevations of the
northern mountains. May even see some of the clouds break
containment and spread across the foothills and piedmont during the
day. Windy to breezy conditions will continue across the mountains
with breezy conditions developing on Wednesday elsewhere. Lows
Tuesday night and highs Wednesday will be near to slightly above
normal.

Winds, clouds and any lingering isolated snow showers diminish
Wednesday night with sunny skies expected Thursday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Lows Wednesday night drop a little below
normal while highs Thursday remain nearly steady near or a little
above normal.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 225 pm Monday... The extended fcst begins at 00z on Friday
with a fairly progressive upper-lvl pattern expected thru the period.

By early Friday, heights will be rising over the fcst area as a
broad upper trof moves off the atlantic coast and steep upper
ridging moves over the eastern conus. The ridge will be short
lived and is expected to translate offshore early Sat as another
upper trof moves across the great lakes later on Sat and into
sun. The trof axis will likely move north of the fcst area by
late Sun and then possibly amplify again on Monday to end the
period. At the sfc, expansive high pressure will be in place
over the region to start the period. By late Fri early sat, the
high will be drifting offshore putting the cwfa back under
warmer, sly low-lvl flow. At the same time, a cold front will
be approaching the fcst area from the west. The latest model
guidance suggests that the FROPA will occur on Sunday with the
ecmwf being the slower solution. By roughly 12z Monday, things
should be drying out as high pressure spreads back over the
area.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
At clt... A line of showers with an isol TSTM possible will cross the
terminal over the next 3-4 hrs. Current MVFR CIGS andVFR vsby will
likely fall into the ifr range during this time and is covered with a
tempo. Expect ifr CIGS thru daybreak and then scatteringVFR conds
arnd 14z as a FROPA crosses east. Winds will pick up out of the sw
and become gusty... Veering W ly and becoming less gusty by late
afternoon.

Elsewhere: a rain shield associated with a FROPA will traverse the
area this morning. The best rain and possible thunder chances have
moved east of kavl and kand. Expect a combo of ifr MVFR all sites
this morning due to CIGS snd vsby. The wind shift behind the front
will be not be too drastic... But expect moderate gusts to develop
all sites as drying hipres builds in from the west. The dry air
mixing thru a deep layer will improve flight restrictions toVFR
arnd daybreak all sites.

Outlook: dry high pressure will dominate the area through the
remainder of the week. Another system will move in over the weekend,
bringing another round of -shra and restrictions.

Confidence table...

05-11z 11-17z 17-23z 23-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 89%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 89%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% med 78%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 89%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% med 72%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi79 min SSE 8 G 18 65°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi29 min S 14 G 17 60°F 1010.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi57 minS 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast62°F61°F96%1009.7 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi64 minSSE 64.00 miHeavy Rain61°F59°F94%1010.5 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi55 minSSW 8 G 2410.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1009.4 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi56 minS 15 G 225.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist62°F62°F100%1010.1 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi55 minSW 13 G 1810.00 miLight Rain62°F60°F93%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmS3S7SE8S10S5SE11S7S6SE10SE9SE10SE13S15S15S18
G28
S13
G22
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmN3N3S3NW3NW3SE33S6SE3SW9S7S4SW4S4S4S6S4S6SE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS5SW6W4CalmCalmNW4CalmE33CalmSW6S8S7S3S6CalmS6CalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.