Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:42PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:07 PM EDT (21:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:28AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 181843
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
243 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
Hot high pressure will build over the region through the middle of
the week. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
each day, focusing over the mountains. Moisture will increase toward
the end of the week as a weak frontal boundary sags south into the
area.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 235 pm: seeing some enhanced CU mainly across the ridgetops
as of mid-afternoon... And a few strong storms developing over the
higher terrain. No real changes in thought for the rest of the
afternoon. Still feel that in spite of relatively poor mid-level
lapse rates and the suppressive affects of the upper ridge, we
will still get one or two strong severe thunderstorms. Steering
flow within the axis of the upper ridge will be extremely weak,
in fact close to zero according to mean lcl-to-el winds from
forecast soundings. Individual cells will therefore make little
headway into the valleys or the foothills.

Over the next 24 hours... Very little change is expected. The upper
anticyclone center will drift a bit to the south and we should see
the start of the breakdown of the ridge, but with no real air mass
change the weather should be persistent. Expect showers storms to
weaken this evening and dissipate before midnight or so. Valley
fog will develop across the nc mountains once again early Tuesday
morning. For Tuesday afternoon, once again there appears to be no
meaningful mid upper support. Fcst soundings remain uncapped, but
lapse rates should remain relatively poor and the CAPE profile
is tall and skinny. As we start to feel the weakening ridge,
the flow should start to increase from the west later in the day,
so there is a better shot for storms to develop an easterly drift,
which justifies keeping a slight chance of precip across the area
east of the blue ridge. Highs will be well into the 90s again, but
think dewpt stands to mix out just enough once again to keep heat
index from getting above about 102f, so no heat advy is anticipated.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 145 pm Monday: no sigfnt changes were made to the short range
fcst. The models continue to show good continuity with the ulvl
high breaking down and shifting south over the period. The lowering h5
heights will bring a llvl bndry closer to the fa by Thu while flow
thru the column increases into the 15-20 kt range. This will still
be a very warm pattern and maxes will top out in the mid to upper
90s over the non mtns. Soundings show sfc TD S will mix-out a bit
each afternoon similar the past few days... Or generally lower by a
few degrees. This relative dryness will be enuf to offset a heat adv
concern... However over the SRN upstate and the nc piedmont the heat
index will come close to criteria or be met in isol locales. Will
thus keep the high heat mention in the hwo. Convection will remain
diurnally driven with no sigfnt triggers and weak mlvl lapse rates.

Expect mtn-top convg to begin the process with more sct tstm
development outside the mtns each afternoon due to the increasing
flow thru the column.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
As of 220 pm edt Monday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Friday
with broad upper trofing moving off the new england coast and weak
upper ridging over the southeast. To the west, a closed upper low is
moving east over the central plains. As we move into the weekend,
the model guidance has the upper low open up and lift northward and
towards the great lakes as upper ridging builds to our east offshore.

By early Sunday, as the upper low lifts northward, it deamplifies
and gets absorbed into the mean northerly flow. For the rest of the
period, we will remain under relatively flat upper ridging as
another upper trof begins to dig down over eastern canada and new
england. At the sfc, a rather complex pattern will be in place to
begin the period. High pressure to our north will be situated
between low pressure well to our NE and nw. Thru the day on Friday,
the eastern low will move well offshore while the low to our west
deepens and tracks NE towards the great lakes. At the same time, the
high begins to move offshore and we lose its influence on the sfc
pattern. On sat, the low lifts farther NE and brings a cold front to
our doorstep. The guidance has the front moving thru the fcst area
by early Sunday with sly flow re-establishing itself across the
region the front's wake. As for the sensible fcst, both Friday and
sat will have the best chances for widespread convection with ample
instability and deep moisture over the area. Pops decrease to around
climatology for Sunday and Monday and we return to a more typical
summer-time pattern. As for temps, Friday and Saturday will see
values near normal if not a few degrees above, and Sunday and Monday
will see values a few degrees warmer than Fri and sat.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
At kclt and elsewhere:VFR conditions are expected to persist
through the period at most sites. A few CU should develop thru
the afternoon with cloud bases generally above 050. The chance
of precip at any site looks too low to mention. Cloud cover
should largely dissipate with sunset. Will not rule out a brief
restriction at kavl again late tonight or early Tuesday morning,
as the air mass will not change. Tuesday looks very similar to
today, starting out mostly clear with a light northeast wind.

Outlook: typical summertime pattern will continue through at least
mid-week, with diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms favoring
the high terrain, and some morning fog possible in the mountain
valleys and over lakes each day. Chances for precip look greater
late in the week as upper ridge begins to break down.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 98% high 97%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi78 min W 5.1 G 8.9 98°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi48 min SW 4.1 G 7 94°F 1016.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi76 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy94°F66°F41%1017.1 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi2.1 hrsNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy95°F66°F39%1019 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi74 minWSW 410.00 miFair94°F69°F44%1017.2 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi75 minWSW 610.00 miFair92°F64°F40%1017.1 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi74 minVar 410.00 miFair94°F71°F48%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W5W4W5SW7SW4SW4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3W43W4W66SW7W7SW8
1 day agoSW4SW4SW4SW3SW3SW4S5CalmS3S3CalmCalmS5CalmCalm3W3SW4W4SW6SW8SW8W6SW6
2 days ago3N6N55NE36E7SE7CalmS4CalmCalmCalmN3NE4E3SE5Calm3S5S9SE7SW5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.