Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frisco, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:45PM Thursday August 24, 2017 6:34 AM EDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ154 S Of Cape Hatteras To Ocracoke Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm Including The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary- 621 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late this morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt early this afternoon, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..NE winds around 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds around 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frisco, NC
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location: 35.22, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241030
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
630 am edt Thu aug 24 2017

Synopsis
A cold front along the south coast this morning will gradually
push south of the area through tonight. Strong high pressure
will build in from the north Friday through Sunday. An area of
low pressure is forecast to develop along the stalled frontal
boundary off the florida coast Sunday and slowly lift northeast
along the southeast coast early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 600 am Thursday... Updated to increase pops to likely over
outer banks south of oregon inlet through mid-morning and
increased NE winds along coast into afternoon. Deepening low
along front off coast producing stronger NE winds than expected
with some obs of 15-20 mph with higher gusts near water.

Scattered to broken coverage of showers has also blossomed over
ne sections associated with surge of NE winds, with best
coverage along the outer banks next few hours.

Previous discussion
as of 315 am Thursday... Wind shift with frontal boundary has
made it to southern coastal sections while main precipitation
bands have shifted well east and south of area. Surge of
slightly drier air with NE winds 10-15 kt just moving into
northern sections and followed gfs ECMWF blend with front
gradually pushing south during the day and NE winds spreading
across most of area by late afternoon. Models continue to
indicate at least scattered shower isolated TSTM activity for
mainly along and east of hwy 17 through the day and went with
pops 20% inland to 40% coast. Debris cloudiness from convection
to south along with developing n-ne winds in low levels will
produce cloudy skies early this morning, then some gradual
decrease in cloud cover expected from north to south during the
day. MAX temps mainly low-mid 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
As of 315 am Thursday... Short wave energy with mean upper trough
moving across to north will continue to produce scattered
shower isolated TSTM threat over eastern sections overnight.

Secondary cool air surge will allow temps to drop to mid 60s
inland with lower 70s coast.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 245 am thu... Below normal temps expected through the
period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with
the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast,
though much uncertainty remains regarding this system.

Friday through Saturday... Strong high pressure will build in
from the north with broad upper troughing across the area,
while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast.

Isolated showers Fri and Fri night, with best chances off the
southern coast. Isolated showers possible Sat with best chances
along the coast as low begins to strengthen off the fl coast.

Low level thickness values and NE flow support below normal
temps with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the low mid 60s inland and mid 60s 70 degrees along the
coast.

Sunday through Wednesday... Models continue to show possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week... Though
much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given
how far out in time and varying model solutions lack of run to
run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the fl coast
sat night and sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through wed. Looking at
the 00z guidance suite, the cmc brings it closest to the nc
coast, with the ECMWF then closer than the gfs. Precip chances
increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward, with best
chances along the coast. Models also continue to show the
remnants of harvey interacting with a frontal boundary over the
gulf coast region, and pushing east northeast mid to late next
week. A lot of uncertainty with how this system will evolve as
well. High temps through the period, generally in the upper 70s
to low 80s, with overnight lows 60-70 degrees.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
Short term through 06z Friday
as of 145 am Thursday... Leading edge of cold front boundary has
made it through TAF sites and main precipitation bands have
moved well south and east of area. Lingering low level moisture
and cool air advection inversion in wake of front will produce
period of ifr CIGS all TAF sites through 12z with some lifting
of CIGS to MVFR at times. Continued advection of slightly drier
air will lead to CIGS lifting to mainlyVFR by 15z. Scattered
shower isolated TSTM threat will linger for eastern TAF sites
through this evening. Winds will become NE 5-10 kt all sites by
late morning.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 245 am thu... PredominantVFR conditions expected through
the period. Could see some isolated showers Saturday through
Monday, with best chances at ewn and oaj.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Thursday... Cold front has made it to southern
waters and will continue to gradually push south through
tonight. Main adjustment with this forecast issuance was to lean
to GFS with surge of NE winds 10-15 kt expected to push across
waters a bit faster today, reaching southern waters by late
afternoon. Secondary surge of NE winds will produce speeds 10-15
kt over all waters again late tonight.

Seas will build to 3-4 ft northern waters this morning while
southern waters expected to subside to 2-3 feet, but then build
back to 3-4 ft tonight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 245 am thu... Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to
develop this weekend and continue into next week, with the
potential for tropical low development along the southeast
coast.

Strong high pressure will build in from the north Friday through
Sunday. Models continue to show the potential for tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model
solutions and lack of run to run consistency. NE winds 10-20 kt
fri and Fri night with seas 2-4 ft. NE winds expected to
increase to 15-25 kt sat. NE E winds increase to 20-25 kt Sunday
and Monday, though could be stronger depending on low
track strength. Nwps and wavewatch in fairly good agreement with
seas 3-5 ft Sat morning, gradually building from south to
north, becoming 4-6 ft late sat, 5-8 ft Sunday and 6-10 ft
Monday. Will cap seas at 10 ft for now given the uncertainty.

Given the uncertainty on how this system will evolve, mariners
should continue to monitor the forecast over the next several
days.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Cqd hsa
aviation... Jbm cqd
marine... Jbm cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 3 mi47 min WNW 12 G 14 78°F 80°F1010.4 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 19 mi45 min NW 12 G 14 80°F 85°F3 ft1010.5 hPa (+0.9)
41063 34 mi95 min NW 14 G 19 80°F 1010.5 hPa (+0.5)
44095 40 mi47 min 79°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 40 mi53 min N 6 G 8.9 74°F 75°F1010.2 hPa
41062 48 mi95 min 16 G 19 79°F 81°F1009.7 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC1 mi44 minWNW 710.00 miA Few Clouds78°F75°F90%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW7SW7SW9SW9SW9SW11SW9SW8
G15
SW10SW7SW9SW8SW7SW4SW6SW7SW5W8N55NW6NW7W7
1 day agoS3S4S4S5S5S66SW9SW10SW9SW11SW12
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2 days agoE4NE3E4E7E9SE8SE10SE5S6S4SE6S5S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:03 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.50.60-0.10.20.91.82.73.33.53.32.61.70.80.2-00.20.81.62.53.33.63.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:49 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.50.60-0.10.20.91.82.73.33.53.32.61.70.90.2-00.10.71.62.53.23.63.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.