Thursday, January17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Russellville, AR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:26PM Thursday January 17, 2019 11:39 AM CST (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 3:31AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Russellville, AR
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location: 35.3, -93.15     debug

Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 171030
area forecast discussion
national weather service little rock ar
430 am cst Thu jan 17 2019

Short term Today through Friday night
scattered shra and even a few rumbles of thunder were noted over
mainly north and central ar early this mrng. The activity was assocd
with a weak upper impulse moving ewd along the mo ar brdr region.

The bulk of the rainfall with this feature is expected to shift to
the E of the fa by mid morning, with just some lingering rain
chances mentioned over ERN ar.

Expect to see areas of fog and drizzle persist this mrng over the
fa. A few locations wl see locally dense fog at times, but conds
don't necessitate any advisories at this time and wl cont to monitor
thru the mrng hrs. The assocd sfc low wl wl pass acrs the fa later
today, along with a trailing cdfnt. The bndry wl bring a wind shift,
along with a shot of cooler air.

Otherwise, a weak ridge of high pres wl bld into the region by tngt,
but wl quickly shift to the E by Fri thanks to the progressive zonal
flow aloft. The next storm system, now moving into the WRN u.S., wl
be working into the plains states on Fri and into ar Fri ngt. Rain
chances wl start to incrs Fri over WRN ar, becoming widespread
statewide Fri ngt. The impact of this system wl cont into the
upcoming weekend.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
wintry weather and cold temps still appear likely this weekend, so
no wholesale overhaul to the forecast this morning. Main changes
were to increase weekend temps just a bit from the previous forecast
and increase snow accumulation slightly, mainly in northern ar.

The base of a large upper trough and associated surface cyclone will
be positioned across northern ar to begin the period. There is more
agreement among model data taking the arctic surface high a bit
further north, so expecting less influence from that feature,
although the pressure gradient will still be relatively tight with
elevated winds anticipated Saturday through Sunday morning. Precip
wise... Thinking mostly liquid rain until Sat afternoon and beyond
when CAA ramps up in the wake of a cold front sweeping west-to-east.

Given the speed at which colder air will arrive and effectively
eradicate any warm nosing in the lower boundary layer, the change to
all snow will be quick across western and northern ar through sat

The influence of meso-to synoptic-scale deformation INVOF and to the
north west of the surface low will need to be monitored carefully
through subsequent forecast cycles. The colder ECMWF solution
maintains a more southerly track and hints at better forcing across
northern ar compared to the warmer and more northerly gfs, and
preference is still weighted toward that solution given its run-to-
run consistency and better clustering among ensemble members. Snow
accumulation was ramped up slightly as a result with the with storm
total values of 1 to 2 inches, mainly north of the ar river valley.

While some data suggest this is a conservative amount, having a
difficult time squeezing out more snow than is currently forecast,
although there is some possibility accumulations will need to be
increased further. Impacts are not anticipated to be widespread but
the rapid onset of freezing temps and snow may cause minor travel
issues late Sat into sun.

Potential dry-slotting as well as waning moisture should largely
prevent accumulating snow farther east south in central and SE ar,
although routing of colder air through the delta may support minor
(less than a half inch) accumulations there. Would not be surprised
to see some flakes flying overnight Sat into Sun though, assuming
moisture isn't scoured too quickly. Again, timing is more predicated
on the slower ECMWF solution, so some adjustments to precip
onset end timing will be needed. Current thinking has precip ending
before dawn Sunday morning.

Temperature-wise, the overall upward adjustment to hourly temps and
resultant min temps Sun and Mon morning suggest less potential for
readings in or near the single digits, although mid-to-upper 10s are
still possible in the northernmost counties Sunday morning. Minimum
wind chill values should range from the single digits above zero
north to teens and low 20s elsewhere Sunday morning. This should be
the coldest morning of the period, carrying with it the highest
potential for dangerous cold.

As surface ridging INVOF the great lakes slides east Monday, a
gradual return to southerly surface flow is expected as more upper
energy queues up across the western conus. Attm, there are notable
model discrepancies handling this next system, although rain
potential will increase heading into tues Wed of next week. The
overall temperature trend will be moderating through around mid-
week, although slightly colder air associated with the
aforementioned disturbance could yield a bit of wintry mix in
northern ar before that system kicks east Wed into thurs.

Lastly, many thanks to surrounding wfos for their input
collaborating the forecast this morning.

Lzk watches warnings advisories None.

Short term... 44 long term... Cooper

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Russelville Municipal Airport, AR4 mi46 minS 510.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from RUE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalm4E5SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmE4E3E63CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5
1 day agoCalmNW3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3Calm
2 days agoW53W5W4NW6NW4NW5W3NW4W5W3W4W5SW4NW6SW4W6W5SW3SW3S3W3W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Little Rock, AR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.