Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:16PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 11:48 PM EST (04:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 5:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 840 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Areas of fog this evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Rain likely or a chance of snow in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 170238
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
938 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area tonight, and produce light
snow across eastern north carolina Wednesday into Wednesday
night. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 9 pm Tuesday... High will push off the coast tonight ahead
of the approaching cold front, currently moving through the
appalachians. Latest satellite imagery shows dense high clouds
streaming across the area, which is making it difficult to see
the low clouds fog impacting the northern coastal areas, which
is evident by ffa and mqi obs showing vsbys between a quarter
and half mile. High res guidance continues to indicated this
area of fog spreading across the albemarle pamlico peninsula
again tonight and with temps near or below freezing there is
some concern for freezing fog as well. However, rapid refresh
models this evening have gradually backed off on the westward
extend of the fog overnight leading to lower confidence on just
how far west the fog will spread. Have issued an sps for dense
fog for the northern obx until midnight and will re-evaluate the
fog situation late this evening. Temps dropped quickly into the
30s this evening but with clouds thickening don't expect temps
to drop that much further overnight and expect lows in the upper
20s to lower 30s inland to low to mid 30s coast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
As of 4 pm tues... Wednesday through Wednesday evening will be
the focus for wintry weather as rain quickly mixes with then
changes over to snow across most of eastern nc starting late in
the morning for the coastal plain and ending in the evening for
the coast.

Fortunately the system will have limited moisture with most
model QPF forecasts indicating 0.25" or less of water
equivalent. Nonetheless, the system will have good forcing to
wring out what moisture is available, as model x-sections
indicate decent fgen banding in the 900-700mb layer, which
co-located with the dgz may produce some decent snow rates at
times, leading to a quick one to two inches of accums for
northwest half of the fa. Initial energy will go into cooling
the boundary layer, as sfc temps will rise into the 40s before
the snow begins, therefore a brief period of rain may fall
before dynamic cooling quickly cools the low levels sufficiently
and switches to snow. This will be an anafront, where precip
occurs behind the sfc boundary. Thus, not expecting an initial
period of freezing rain, as cooling will occur from top down.

In addition, no warm nose will be present as there is little to
no sfc reflection offshore. Timing of the snow will adversely
affect the afternoon and evening commute when the heaviest of
the snow is forecast to occur. Column drying occurs from the top
down Wed evening as deep layer saturation quickly erodes, and
there may even be a brief period of freezing drizzle before
precip comes to an end on the coast around midnight. Roads will
likely be treacherous where snow falls through thur morning as
overnight lows Wed night expected in the upper teens to lower
20s inland to 25-30 immediate coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 345 am Tuesday...

Thursday through Sunday... Cold and dry conditions will follow
this low pressure system, with high temps Thursday only topping
out in the upper 30s across the area. Low temps will be very
cold Thursday and Friday mornings with teens expected inland,
and 20s along the coast. As the cold upper trough moves away on
Friday, high temperatures will moderate to around 50. High
pressure moving off the coast, and rising heights will allow
temperatures to warm above average over the weekend, with dry
weather expected.

Monday... A cold front will approach late Monday bringing a
threat of showers to area by evening. Mild temperatures will
continue ahead of the front with highs in the lower to middle
60s expected.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 7 pm Tuesday... PredVFR expected at the terminals through
most of Wednesday morning, however areas of fog with vsbys less
than 1 mile continue to impact the northern obx this evening. As
last night, high res guidance spreads this fog across parts of
the albemarle pamlico peninsula but latest rapid refresh updates
have been backing off with how far west this fog will spread and
think the fog will remain northeast of the terminals at this
time. An arctic front approaches the are Wednesday and will see
clouds lowering through the morning and early afternoon with
precip starting off as rain at onset but quickly turning to snow
with conditions dropping to ifr or below during the afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm tue... Light snow will likely impact conditions
Wednesday evening with widespread sub-vfr conditions likely,
then improving toVFR by early Thursday morning.VFR conditions
expected Thursday through Sunday with dry high pressure forecast
to be over the area.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday night ...

as of 830 pm tue... High pressure weakens over the waters tonight
with light and variable winds, generally less than 10 kt, and
seas around 3-6 ft. Seas north of ocracoke expected to remain
mostly at or above 6 ft overnight into wed. A cold front will
move through the waters Wed afternoon, with northerly winds
increasing quickly along with building seas. Northerly winds
peak at 20-30 kt with seas 5-9 ft Wed night. A brief period of
gale force gusts will be possible across the central waters wed
night. SCA advisories continue for the waters north of ocracoke,
and issued for the southern waters and sounds beginning wed
afternoon.

Areas of fog and stratus continue to impact the northern obx
and adjacent coastal waters this evening with manteo and first
flight airports reporting 1 4 to 1 2 mile visibilities. Guidance
continues to spread the fog south and west through the overnight
but rapid refresh runs have been gradually backing off on the
extent so confidence on just how far it will spread remains
low. In addition, high clouds are hampering the ability to see
the fog via satellite making it difficult to ascertain the true
extent of the fog. Have issued a dense fog advisory for the
albemarle sound and coastal waters north of oregon inlet at this
time and may need to expand the advisory if conditions warrant.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 345 am Tuesday... Small craft conditions will persist
across the through Thursday dues to gusty northerly winds 20 to
25 kt through Thursday morning and hazardous 5 to 8 ft seas
through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas slowly decrease late
Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday W SW flow around 15 kt
is expected with seas 3-5 ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 10 pm est Wednesday for
ncz029-044-045-079-080-090-091.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm to 10 pm est Wednesday for
ncz046-047-081-092>094-098.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm to 10 pm est Wednesday for
ncz095-104.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 1 am est
Thursday for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm Wednesday to 10 am est Thursday
for amz130-131-135.

Dense fog advisory until 8 am est Wednesday for amz130-150.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm Wednesday to 1 pm est Thursday
for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Cqd sgk
near term... Sk cqd
short term... Jme tl
long term... Jme tl
aviation... Jme sk cqd bm
marine... Jme sk cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi49 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 39°F 47°F1026.9 hPa (-0.9)
44095 26 mi61 min 45°F8 ft
41025 - Diamond Shoals 27 mi39 min NNW 7.8 G 12 49°F 68°F1027.2 hPa42°F
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 34°F 42°F1026.8 hPa (-1.2)
41062 34 mi49 min 3.9 G 7.8 61°F1027 hPa (-0.9)
41063 48 mi109 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 69°F1027.1 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair33°F32°F96%1027.5 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------N7434NE4N54CalmCalm
1 day agoN10
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------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:11 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:24 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:06 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.61.322.73.23.332.51.810.40.10.10.511.51.92.121.61.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:06 PM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.10.311.92.73.13.332.51.60.80.2-000.411.72.22.42.21.81.10.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.