Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 12:00 AM EST (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 10:57PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 1019 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
.gale watch in effect from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of rain.
Thu..E winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 7 to 9 ft after midnight. Rain likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri night..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 140306
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1006 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move offshore this evening followed by high
pressure Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will affect the
area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure will ridge
into the region later Friday through the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 10 pm Tuesday... The latest sfc analysis shows the
secondary cold front has pushed off the coast this evening and
sfc high pressure is building into the area with gusty winds
along the outer banks. Most of the light rain is currently east
of hwy 17, while a few passing showers south of CAPE hatteras, but
expect showers to spread eastward overnight. Only minor tweaks
to t TD based on current trends, no other changes to the
forecast.

Pre dis... Cold front will push offshore this evening. Light
shra just W of region will grad push E thru the evening. Looks
like a high pop low QPF event with less than 1 4 inch of rain
expected. Later tonight drier air will push S into the area with
precip ending tapering off from N to s. Good CAA will lead to
lows in the lower 40s inland to upper 40s around 50 cst. Nne
winds wl become gusty coast overnight.

Short term Wednesday night through 6 pm Wednesday
As of 220 pm Tuesday... High pressure will build in from the n
with drier air keeping most of the area dry. Cont slight pops
srn tier early that will increase a bit late as moisture begins
lifting N ahead of next system. Widespread clouds will keep
temps cool with 40s inland to low mid 50s cst with cont gusty
ne winds cst.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
As of 230 pm tue... Active weather will continue into the second half
of the week. Then, drier and cooler air will move in Friday and
remain into the weekend.

Late Wednesday through Thursday... Low pressure traveling up the east
coast will prompt moisture to surge locally beginning Wednesday
night. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will be in place
Thursday morning, and light to moderate precip will overspread the
area from south to north low level moisture overrides the wedge.

Gradually, instability will build as higher theta-e air begins to
overspread the area. Inland, where the wedge will persist later into
the day, instability will mainly be elevated, while closer to the
coast, the coastal front is expected to retreat inland to around the
us hwy 17 corridor as the low approaches the area, resulting in
instability based closer to the surface. This, in conjunction with
ample low level shear as a strong low level jet on the east side of
the low works into the area, will lead to an increased chance of
thunderstorms becoming organized, with damaging wind gusts and
possibly a couple of tornadoes. As such, SPC has outlooked coastal
areas within a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday.

Additionally, pwat values as high as 1.5 inches inland to over 2
inches along the coast will support the potential for heavy rainfall
late Thursday morning through Thursday night. Given the very wet
antecedent conditions, minor to moderate flooding of mainly low-
lying and poor drainage areas is possible as 1 to 3 inches of
additional rainfall is expected.

Friday through Monday... As low pressure departs the area, it will
drag a cold front off the coast Friday morning, with cooler high
pressure building in behind it. High pressure will continue to ridge
into the area through this weekend and into Monday, however cooler
conditions are expected. High temps Friday will reach the low to
upper 60s, with mostly 50s likely for the weekend. Lows will dip
into the 30s inland, but look to remain above freezing, while
remaining in the low to mid 40s along the coast.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 700 pm Tuesday... High confidence in MVFR conditions will
persist through most of the night as low clouds are trapped
below the inversion. The secondary cold front has pushed through
most of the TAF sites, except for oaj. There will be a brief
period of ifr this evening when showers move through each taf
site. Conditions will gradually improved after 6 7z when
drier cooler air filters into the area from the N withVFR
returning back and lasting through most of Wed with gusty winds.

Expect clouds to lower tomorrow evening as showers start to
spread in with the next system.

Long term Wed night through Saturday ...

as of 230 pm tue... Ifr conditions are likely as low pressure impacts
the area Wednesday night through Thursday night.VFR conditions
return Friday through the weekend.

Marine
Short term tonight and Wed ...

as of 1000 pm Tuesday... The latest buoy observations are
showing N winds 20-25 knots north of diamond shoal and 5-15
knots south with seas 5-7 ft. The cold front has pushed off the
coast and winds have increased along the waters. Expect nne
winds 20 to 30 kts overnight. Tight grdnt will cont Wed with
high pres to the N and developing low pres to the s. NE winds
will cont at 20 to 30 kts and could see some gusts to 35 kts
espcly central and SRN wtrs. Seas of 5 to 8 feet currently will
subside to 4 to 7 feet this evening then build back to 5 to 8 ft
late. Seas will cont to build to 6 to 9 feet wed.

Long term Wed night through Sunday ...

as of 220 pm tues... Deepening low pres will approach from the s
wed night and move just inland from coast thu. Strong onshore
winds of 25 to 35 kt will develop with the low approaching thru
mid day Thu then begin to diminish late Thu as low starts to
lift n. Issued gale watch for coastal waters Thu and expect seas
to build to 8 to 13 ft. Conditions should begin to improve
Friday, but seas look to remain elevated through late Fri to fri
night. High pres will build in from the W over the weekend with
winds mainly AOB 15 kt and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am Wednesday to 1 pm est Thursday
for amz137.

Small craft advisory until 2 am est Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Wednesday to 3 pm est Thursday
for amz130-131.

Gale watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for amz150-152-154-156-158.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Thursday for amz150-156-
158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf bm
short term... Rf
long term... Sgk cb
aviation... Rf ctc bm
marine... Rf bm sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi31 min NNE 17 G 20 58°F 67°F1021.1 hPa
44095 26 mi15 min 64°F6 ft
41025 - Diamond Shoals 27 mi21 min N 18 G 23 62°F 78°F1021.5 hPa56°F
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi31 min N 12 G 20
41062 34 mi61 min 19 G 23 1021.7 hPa (+1.5)
44086 42 mi36 min 64°F7 ft
41063 48 mi61 min Calm G 0 77°F

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi70 minNNE 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast58°F51°F78%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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6NE7NE65NE6NE4NE4NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
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Wed -- 05:11 AM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:43 AM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:32 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.81.41.10.70.60.711.422.42.72.82.62.21.610.60.30.30.50.91.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:12 AM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:42 AM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:09 PM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.82.31.61.10.911.422.73.33.73.73.42.92.31.61.10.911.31.92.53

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.