Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:16PM Thursday January 17, 2019 4:07 AM EST (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 3:17AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 330 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Scattered showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft. Showers, then a chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 170215
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
915 pm est Wed jan 16 2019

Synopsis
A weak and dry backdoor cold front will push through the area
tonight with high pressure ridging in from the north Thursday.

The high pushes offshore Thursday night with a weak cold front
pushing across the area early Friday. A much stronger cold
front will approach from the west Saturday and move into the
region Sunday. Cold high pressure will build in from the west
early next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 915 pm wed... High pressure remains ridging over the
southern half of the region, while a backdoor cold front moves
south into eastern nc this evening. The front has pushed into
most of the northern portion of the forecast area, with winds
turning to the NE behind it. With clear skies and mostly calm
winds, expect another cold night. Temperatures should reach the
upper 20s to low 30s across most of eastern nc, with mid to
upper 30s expected along the immediate shoreline beaches.

Also, could also see some patchy field ditch river fog again
overnight with low dewpoint depressions.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 2 pm Wednesday... High pressure ridges in from the north
Thursday, then slides offshore late in the day as a mid level
shortwave and weak front approach from the west. Will see
increasing and lowering clouds through the day but it will
remain dry until late in the day when a few showers will be
approaching far western zones. Light NE flow gradually veers to
east and southeast inland, though meso models keeping northeast
winds across the obx. High expected in the mid 50s southern
sections but onshore flow will keep the obx and northern
sections in the mid to upper 40s.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 330 pm wed... A weak disturbance tracks over the region
Thursday night with some scattered showers. A strong cold front
approaches our area from the west on Saturday and moves in on
Sunday followed by much colder air early next week. Another
storm system approaches the region on Wednesday but large timing
differences exist.

Thursday night thru Friday night... Model guidance remaining in
good agreement with short wave crossing aloft with weak sfc low
passing to the N tomorrow night and early fri. Band of moisture
will cross overnight and cont with chc pops all areas... Highest
nw. QPF still looks rather light with less than 1 4 inch
expected. Drier air quickly spreads back in Fri with bulk of
shra offshore by 12z. Cloud cover decreases Friday with high
pressure building back in from the north. Highs across the
region will be in the low 60s inland and mid to upper 50s
beaches, with lows upr 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday through Sunday... A longwave trough is forecast to dig
in to the four corners region Friday afternoon and help spur
more robust lee cyclogenesis once again across the southern
plains. Still agreement with latest 12z guidance package on a
strong cold front approaching from the west on Saturday as the
low passes to the north. The forecast area will get into warm
sector on Saturday with highs upper 50s to low 60s, models cont
to point to mainly dry conditions thru Sat evening with sct shra
developing late. Will remain warm Sunday just ahead of the
front with highs mainly 60 to 65. Mdls showing only marginal (if
any) sfc based instab ahead of the front so keeping tsra out of
fcst for now. With guidance continuing to come into better
agreement on this system bumped up pops to categorical for all
areas Sunday with good band of shra expected along and ahead of
front. CAA advection is extreme late Sunday Sunday evening and
may very briefly see some snow mix in with rain before ending
nrn tier. Confidence in this scenario is low.

Sunday night through Wednesday... Very cold air will surge in
Sunday night and cont thru Mon night. Lows Sun night will reach
around 20 far NW to upr 20s central SRN beaches. Highs Monday
will hold mainly in low mid 30s with many areas staying below
freezing. Gusty NW winds Sunday night and Mon will produce wind
chill temps in the teens later Sun night into early mon. Cool
high pressure remains in control through Mon night with lows in
the 20s. Mid level heights increase behind the departing trough
on Tuesday with forecast highs in the mid 40s most spots.

The GFS and ECMWF are both hinting at yet another storm system with
similar genesis to the previous two approaching the carolinas
sometime at the end of the period, although large timing differences
exist with the GFS being quite a bit faster than the ecmwf.

Regardless, southerly low level flow combined with continued ridging
aloft should help highs climb into the upper 50s to around 60.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tomorrow evening ...

as of 915 pm wed...VFR conditions are present across the
airspace and will continue through the first half of tonight.

Expect some patchy and shallow MVFR fog to develop across inland
locations, similar to the last few nights, and last through 8
am or so. After that, it should be mostly clear, withVFR
conditions tomorrow. With the approach of a weak storm system,
some MVFR ceilings are possible by early tomorrow evening.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 330 pm wed... Some brief sub-VFR conditions possible
Thursday night with a quick moving system bringing scattered
showers across all sites. A return toVFR is expected Friday
into Saturday with high pressure building back in. High
confidence in sub-vfr conditions Sunday as a stronger front
approaches from the west with numerous showers. Gusty wsw winds
thru early aftn will grad shift to the NW late and remain gusty
as intense cold advection develops behind cold front. Winds
subsiding Monday with conditions improving back toVFR.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 915 pm Wednesday... A backdoor cold front will push south
across the area tonight with light W to SW winds generally
below 15 kt becoming N to NE around 10-15 kt with gusts to near
20 kt possible. NE winds around 15 kt or less gradually veer to
e late in the day as the high pushes offshore in advance of the
next frontal system. Seas around 2-4 ft tonight subside to
around 1 to 3 ft Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 330 pm wed... Winds veering wsw Thu night and fri
increasing to 10 to 15 kts Fri morning as surface low passes
well to the n. This will lead to some occasional 4 foot seas
developing far outer central and SRN wtrs. High pres builds in
sat morn with light winds then slides offshore late with se
winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas mainly 2 to 3 feet sat.

Strong SCA conditions Sun as ssw winds increase to 20 to 30 kts
ahead of a strong cold front with some gale force gusts. Winds
will begin to shift to W late Sun as front crosses with gale
force NW winds likely most waters Sun night as intense cold air
advection moves in behind front. Seas will build 7 to 12 feet
Sunday in the gusty ssw winds. Waves subside Mon to 2 to 4 feet
srn waters but SCA conditions forecast for cntrl and NRN waters
to end of period. Winds decreasing to 15 to 20 kts SRN waters
with 20 to 25 knots cntrl and NRN waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sk sgk
short term... Sk
long term... Ms
aviation... Sgk ms
marine... Sk ms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi44 min NE 5.1 G 6 44°F 48°F1024.5 hPa
44095 26 mi52 min 47°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi44 min NNE 13 G 16 43°F 46°F1025.4 hPa
44086 42 mi43 min 48°F4 ft

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi77 minENE 410.00 miFair42°F39°F92%1025 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3W4W4W4W6W6W8W8SW10SW9SW6SW8W8SW5W4W4W3SW3NW5NE4NE4NE3NE4
1 day ago4443365NW755554N544N3333N3CalmCalmCalm
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66555--664

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:40 AM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:49 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.12.73.13.22.92.31.610.50.30.40.71.31.82.22.321.60.90.3-0.1-0.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:26 AM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:48 PM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:42 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.63.33.73.73.22.51.60.80.20.10.30.91.72.42.932.721.20.3-0.2-0.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.