Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:10PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:48 PM EDT (21:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 353 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Monday...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt through this evening. Seas 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered tstms this evening. Scattered showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201944
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
344 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
Tropical moisture will continue over the area into mid week
with high pressure offshore and frontal boundaries remaining to the
west and north. A cold front will move through the area Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 340 pm sun... Eastern nc will remain in a weakly forced
but very moist environment through Monday with anomalously high
pw values AOA 1.75" as atlantic high pressure continues to
circulate tropical moisture across the area. With no significant
mid level shortwaves or surface synoptic scale lifting
mechanisms to key on, determining precipitation timing,
coverage, and location will be difficult the next 48 hours. Not
much is happening on the various differential heating boundaries
such as the sea breeze so far this afternoon, but would expect
an uptick inland in the next hour or two with this activity then
making a run towards the coast this evening before weakening.

Could see additional showers develop late near the coast but
overall not expecting much overnight and have decreased pops
slightly from the previous forecast. Lows will be 65-70 inland,
and low 70s beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 340 pm sun... No change to tropical nature of the airmass
across eastern nc Monday, but a weak cold front is forecast to
briefly drift south into northern portions of the area serving
as a focusing mechanism for scattered afternoon into evening
thunderstorms, especially across the northern counties where the
activity could be enhanced near the boundary. Sea breeze
boundaries further south could also trigger convection further
south so will have chance pops, highest north. Highs will be in
the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to lower 80s beaches.

Long term Monday through Sunday
As of 340 pm Sunday... Little change in the overall pattern is
expected through mid week, but a pattern shift will occur
around Thursday as a back door front drops south across the
region, finally bringing some drier air to the region for the
latter portion of the week.

Tuesday... High pressure ridge over the atlantic to continue to
provide a warm and moist southwest flow across our area in a
pattern more reminiscent of mid to late summer. The cold front
is forecast to retreat back well north of the region with only
small chances showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will
generally range in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday... A pattern shift Wednesday night into
Thursday will bring in a drier pattern for the latter portion of
the week. Good model consensus for a back door cold front to
move into the CWA between 06z and 12z on Thursday. The front
will provide sufficient convergence to enhance shower and
thunderstorm activity ahead of it on Wednesday, before slightly
cooler and more stable air reaches the area Wednesday night.

Pop-wise, Wednesday appears to be the wettest day of the week.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler for Thursday with less
coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday... A light E SE flow Friday become more
southerly on Saturday and increases a bit bringing a return of
more humidity and warmer temperatures. In fact, Saturday appears
to be the warmest day of the week with highs well into the 80s
away from the water. Rain chances Friday and Saturday will be
below climatology.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 120 pm sun... Ceilings have lifted toVFR this afternoon,
though could hover between MVFR andVFR through 00z. Scattered
showers this afternoon, with best chances at oaj and ewn. There
will be the potential for light fog and stratus at pgv iso
early Monday morning, but with below normal confidence will keep
conditionsVFR at this time. Scattered showers and storms
likely to re-develop Monday afternoon and evening.

Long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 340 pm Sunday... Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible Monday through Wednesday, mainly
diurnally driven during the afternoon and evening hours. This
could produce some occasional sub-vfr conditions, especially wed
into Wed night when coverage is expected to be greatest. Drier
and slightly cooler air should produce a generallyVFR day for
Thursday.

Marine
Short term through Monday ...

as of 340 pm sun... Atlantic high pressure will continue over
the waters through Monday. Small craft conditions mainly for
seas to 6 ft and occasional gusts to 25 kt will continue through
late tonight across the southern and central waters. S-sw flow
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will continue through this evening,
then winds will diminish to 10-15 kt late tonight and Monday.

Winds across the waters north of oregon inlet and the albemarle
sound are forecast to become E around 10 kt Mon afternoon as a
weak cold front briefly drops south into the area. 4-6 ft seas
through this evening are forecast to subside to 3-5 ft overnight
and 2-4 ft Monday.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 340 pm Sunday... A very steady-state marine forecast
through midweek as high pressure offshore continues to provide
sw winds at 10-20 knots with seas running around 3 to 4 feet. A
back door front finally crosses the area late Wed night into thu
morning leading to a more NE wind flow, but winds speeds should
still remain at or below 20 knots with seas at 5 feet or less.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Monday for amz154-156.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for amz152-158.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Jme ctc
aviation... Ctc cqd
marine... Jme ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi48 min SSW 12 G 17 75°F 76°F1019.7 hPa (-1.1)
44095 26 mi60 min 65°F5 ft
41025 - Diamond Shoals 27 mi38 min SSW 19 G 23 76°F 76°F1020.6 hPa71°F
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi54 min SSW 24 G 28 76°F 77°F1018.7 hPa
41062 34 mi48 min 18 G 21 1020.3 hPa (-0.8)
41063 48 mi108 min WSW 12 G 14 75°F 1020.7 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi57 minSW 11 G 188.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S10S11S11S13S11S11S9SW8SW7SW5SW8SW9SW9S8S8SW6SW10SW11SW13
G20
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1 day agoS9S8S9S10S9S11S10S9S11S11S9S10S8S7S8S7S9S8S10S11S11S11S11S13
2 days agoS13S10S10S10S10S8S7S7SW8SW7S7SW5S8S7SW7S8S5S9S7S9
G16
S8S7S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:18 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:04 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.22.51.60.7-0-0.3-0.30.20.81.52.12.42.31.91.30.70.200.20.71.42.33

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:17 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.62.81.90.90.2-0.2-0.10.31.11.92.52.82.72.31.60.80.2-00.10.61.42.33.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.