Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cayucos, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:12PM Monday May 29, 2017 4:20 AM PDT (11:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:01AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 226 Am Pdt Mon May 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 20 kt early...becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the evening...becoming 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt early...becoming 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt in the evening...becoming 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 226 Am Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt...a 1025 mb high pressure center was located 500 nm west of point conception and a 1004 mb low pressure center was located over southern nevada.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cayucos, CA
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location: 35.43, -120.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 290939
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
239 am pdt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A weak upper level ridge will breakdown and give way to an upper
level trough across the region early this week and persisting
over much of california through most of the week. Expect more
widespread low clouds and fog with a few showers possible Monday
and Wednesday in the mountains with patchy drizzle for a few
valley and foothill areas by mid week.

Short term (tdy-wed)
synoptically, the weak upper ridge that was over much of
california and nevada will begin to push east ahead of an
approaching deep upper trough associated with a 542 dm low that
will remain well north off the pac NW coastal waters. There will
be a couple weak disturbances within the upper flow that will
bring a chance of showers to the sba vtu county mountains late
this afternoon and across the northern slopes of the sba vtu
county mountains on Wednesday with most the precip remaining well
to the north and east. Expect high temps to trend a bit lower for
most areas today and Tuesday. Then more significant cooling on
Wednesday when high temps will be a few degrees cooler than normal
for this time of year.

For this morning, low clouds have filled in nicely across the
central coast and santa ynez valley. Low clouds have also started
to fill in across the la and ventura county coastal areas and into
the san gabriel valley. Some high clouds were also moving through
the region as a very weak frontal boundary will bring some high
clouds through the forecast area this morning. With the marine
layer now rising to around 1400 ft, expect low clouds to make it
into the san fernando valley and ventura valleys as well before
sunrise. Latest amdar sounding indicated the marine layer around
1000 ft deep this morning around lax. As a weak catalina eddy
gets going this morning, expect the marine layer to deepen to
around 1400 ft this morning. With a relatively strong inversion
in place, smokey conditions are likely to continue over the
mandeville fire region today. Smoke will have a tough time mixing
out until later this afternoon. People suffering from respiratory
conditions should stay indoors until the smoke diminishes and
mixes out late this afternoon. Low clouds could linger along a few
coastal areas into early this afternoon, thanks in part to the
stronger inversion.

The main issue for today will be the potential for a few elevated
thunderstorms developing across the ventura santa barbara county
mtns later this afternoon. There is enough instability with
limited mid level moisture to justify a slight chance for showers
or thunderstorms. If storms do initiate, the main impact would be
dry lightning, as well as strong downdraft winds when storms
collapse. The san gabriel mountains should see some partly cloudy
skies as there is less in the way of instability.

Low clouds are expected to redevelop and push inland across coast
and valleys tonight into Tuesday morning. With little change
synoptically, expat for slightly stronger onshore flow, expect a
degree or two of cooling across coastal areas, with little change
inland. An upper disturbance will move through the upper trough on
Wednesday bringing a more significant deep marine layer. Some
patchy drizzle has been added for the san gabriel foothills. There
will be just enough lift with this trough that some showers will
be possible across the northern slope of the sba vtu county
mountains. Took out the chance for thunderstorms as the soundings
looked quite anemic in respect to convection potential for
Wednesday. High temps will bottom out on Wednesday with warmest
valleys reaching the mid to upper 70s with a few locations
reaching 80 degrees. Otherwise most areas will be the mid 60s to
lower 80s across the antelope valley.

Long term (thu-sun)
both the GFS and ECMWF models are in fairly good agreement with
large scale features through next weekend. After the trough axis
moves through the region on Wednesday, broad NW flow aloft will
occur on Thursday then by Friday a weak upper ridge will form over
southern california briefly. Expect a modest warming trend
thu Fri across the entire region as heights and thickness lvls
rise. Onshore flow will weak late this week, but there should
continue to be night through morning low clouds. A weak upper low
will build in from the SW over the weekend which will help to
increase low clouds and begin another modest cooling trend. Models
seem to have a tough time dealing with systems coming up from the
sw. Will continue to go with cooler solution for the weekend.

Aviation 29 06z...

at 03z at klax... The inversion was based near 1150 feet. The top
of the inversion was near 4150 feet with a temperature of about
22 degrees celsius.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the current tafs. Lifr ifr
conditions will develop at most coastal locations by 11z then
will clear by 20z. There is a forty percent chance of lifr ifr
conditions at kbur and kvny in the 12z-18z period and a thirty
percent chance at kprb and ksba in the 10z-18z period. Lifr ifr
conditions will likely develop at coastal and adjacent valley
locations after 30 08z. Otherwise and elsewhereVFR conditions
will prevail.

Klax... Moderate confidence in the current taf. Lifr ifr
conditions will develop around 08z and clear by 20z... Then
return again around 30 09z. OtherwiseVFR conditions will
prevail. No east winds above 7 knots are expected.

Kbur... Moderate confidence the current taf. There is a forty
percent chance of lifr ifr conditions in the 12z-18z period.

OtherwiseVFR conditions will prevail.

Marine 29 200 am
small craft advisory (sca) conditions continue across the outer
waters and in the nearshore waters of the central coast into at
least Wednesday. There will be periods during overnight and early
morning hours when winds dip below SCA levels.

The stronger winds will spill into the western half of the santa
barbara channel each evening but not far enough to warrant a sca
for the entire channel.

The winds peak Monday and Tuesday and there is a thirty percent
chance that gale conditions will form beyond 30 nm of the central
coast.

The elevated winds will create a short period chop over all
waters including the santa barbara channel and santa monica basin
in the inner waters.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 am pdt Tuesday for
zones 645-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
no significant hazards expected.

Public... Kaplan
aviation... Kj
marine... Kj
synopsis... Kaplan
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 16 mi31 min 54°F4 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 19 mi51 min Calm G 2.9 53°F 53°F1015.7 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 34 mi91 min NW 18 G 19 53°F 54°F6 ft1015.2 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA18 mi25 minNW 99.00 miOvercast55°F52°F90%1014.3 hPa
Paso Robles, Paso Robles Municipal Airport, CA22 mi28 minNW 610.00 miFair52°F50°F93%1014 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW11W4W7W9NW12NW9NW11NW12NW13NW14NW12NW16NW15NW10NW12NW10NW12NW7NW5W4NW45NW9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3NW9NW8NW9NW14NW14
G20
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NW15NW16NW16NW105NW7NW9NW6NW6NE3CalmNW7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S5SW9SW11SW8S74NW9NW12NW11NW8NW7NW7NW6NW4CalmCalmE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:51 AM PDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:12 AM PDT     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:04 PM PDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.45.65.24.43.11.70.4-0.6-1-0.8-0.10.922.93.53.83.63.22.72.42.22.533.7

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:08 AM PDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:29 AM PDT     -3.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:22 PM PDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM PDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.92.10.9-0.6-2-3.1-3.7-3.7-3.1-2.1-0.80.311.41.410.4-0-0.2-0.10.31.11.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.