Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 9:08 PM   Moonset 6:19 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 251821 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stationary front located just south of our area moves north as a warm front on Friday and washes out across our area, but giving us a cooler day because of clouds and a few showers. After that, expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected to approach from the northwest in the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 pm EDT Thursday: Downstream of large-scale western height falls, a building upper ridge will progress across the eastern half of the country through the period. Confluent flow downstream of this feature will support persistence of a 1030+ mb surface high over New England, with circulation around this feature allowing for development of an inverted surface ridge east of the Appalachians tonight through Friday. S/SE flow above this shallow stable layer will increase moist isentropic lift and upslope flow from around sunrise through much of the day Friday. However, rising motion is expected to be quite weak and moisture shallow, so PoPs are limited to the 20-30% range and primarily confined to the mountains and foothills. The larger impact of the weak lift is expected to be low cloud development, which along with NE surface flow will significantly limit the heating potential on Friday. Max temps are therefore forecast to be 5-10 degrees below normal...or about 10 degrees cooler than today's readings.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1215 PM Thursday: Looks like we will be dealing with expanding and thickening cloud cover within the developing/lingering damming regime Friday night. A smattering of showers or light rain should accompany, mainly being forced by the easterly flow impinging upon the higher terrain. As upper ridging strengthens top the SE CONUS and llvl flow veers to southerly, overall improvement is on tap featuring dissipating showers and thinning of cloud cover on Saturday. At this juncture, as long as the expected improvement plays out as expected, temperature should rise to around the late April climo. Should be a quiet and warm Sunday as upper ridge axis keeps the atmosphere suppressed. Llvl flow around Bermuda Hipres will push lower elevation maxes to around 80.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 115 PM Thursday: The warming trend will be ongoing to start off the work week thanks to lingering eastern seaboard deep layered ridging. Ridging will begin breaking down on Tuesday with moisture and weak frontal zone energy spreading into the western cwfa. It looks like a second elongated frontal zone will approach the mountains on Tuesday, and within the broad moist and weakly unstable atmosphere a round of scattered if not numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are probable across the western cwfa. Otherwise, expect another afternoon of piedmont lower and middle 80s for maximums. For the latter half of the period, the pattern remains slowly progressive with daily chances of showers and storms, almost summerlike with respect to the sensible wx as temperatures remaining well above normal.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR/mostly SKC conditions will continue through this evening
Winds
currently in a bit of a transitional phase
mostly light/vrbl or even calm
are expected to settle at light SE as most sites toward this evening, becoming NE at around 10 kts toward daybreak Friday. This arrival of NE winds is expected to be accompanied by increasing moisture/lowing cigs, with MVFR conditions expected at most sites by late morning. IFR cigs are possible, but confidence is generally too low to include at this time...except at KHKY where IFR appears more likely. Restricted cigs should continue through the morning, with gradual improvement expected during the afternoon. Can't rule out a -SHRA or two late in the period at the western terminals, especially in the foothills and at KAVL, but the probability is too low to include a TAF mention attm.

Outlook: Periods of low clouds are expected to linger into Saturday, with drying expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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