Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:33 PM EDT (19:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 1:21AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 221850
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
250 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
A moist air mass will remain in control of our weather through
Wednesday, with good chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the
forecast area from the north on Thursday and should allow for some
brief drying for Thursday and Friday. Another round of deep tropical
moisture is expected to lift across the area over the weekend and
into early next week.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 200 pm: humid conditions persist across the cwfa, with a
healthy CU field having developed over most zones. A weak boundary
developed over the lower part of our savannah river valley area
around midday and a line of showers storms popped up along it. This
feature and the activity are moving north into the western upstate
attm. Scattered showers and a few storms are expected across the
area this aftn, and instability actually is greater over the nc
piedmont, where this boundary or outflows should promote some
new updrafts. Forcing this evening still will be unremarkable and
diminishing coverage is expected following peak heating.

Overnight, the shortwave trough now over the middle ohio valley
will move toward the east coast. Low-level winds will shift behind
its axis; the wind shift is expected to occur between midnight and
dawn roughly over the northwest half of the area. This will provide
a slight enhancement to lift and warrants keeping at least a small
pop throughout the night, with the highest values near the trough
axis. Min temps overnight should again reflect the muggy dewpoints,
and bottom out 7-10 degrees above normal.

The trough boundary will remain nearly stationary over the southern
part of the cwfa through the remainder of the near term period. This
will enhance tomorrow's round of diurnal convection over the
southeastern half of the area, though chance-range pops are forecast
elsewhere. The terrain along the southern escarpment looks likely to
see precip develop by late morning; these areas in particular have
particularly saturated soils from the rainfall of the past week,
so we will be especially mindful of flash flood threat with any
cells that develop there. Pwat values will remain exceptionally
high south of the boundary, with SREF mean values above 1.6",
2 standard deviations above climo. Deep layer shear will be very
weak and storms are likely to be virtually stationary, so locally
heavy rain cannot be ruled out anywhere in this environment. On
the other hand, over the central NRN mountains and i-40 corridor,
drier air will begin to fill in on the northwesterly flow occurring
there. While this may limit rainfall rates, it will also make
cells in that area more likely to produce strong wind gusts. Max
temps will be a few degrees above normal.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
As of 220 pm Tuesday: weak frontal boundary will be sagging slowly
south or stalling across the area, while becoming increasingly
diffuse during the short term. While slightly drier lower theta-e
air will have modest success trickling into the area on Thursday
(mainly across the northern zones), this won't last as the air mass
is forecast to modify back to soupy unstable across the entire area
by the end of the period. Thu and Fri should therefore see more
diurnal convective activity, with pops Thu ranging from 20-30%
across much of the northern half of the area, to 40-60% across
southern zones. Easterly low level flow north of the boundary
underneath NW flow aloft will result in very weak (i.E., < 5 kts)
steering flow. With the boundary providing a potential focus for
slow-moving training cells, a localized flash flooding threat will
exist across roughly the southern half of the area Thu afternoon.

Max temps will remain near normal, and min temps 5-10 degrees above
climo through the period.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 235 pm Tuesday: all eyes remain on the tropics in terms of the
medium range, with the two camps re: tropical cyclone impacts along
the gulf coast sticking to their respective guns: the eastern gulf
solution (gfs) and the miss valley solution (ecmwf). After it had
begun to trend to the west, the GFS has doubled-down on a fl-ga-
carolinas track with its weakening surface low (and actually depicts
secondary surface development across the central gulf coast) early
next week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to landfall a tropical
cyclone near the mouth of the miss river on Sunday, then stalls it
for 24-ish hours before slowly lifting it north. (for what it's
worth, the latest canadian is somewhere in between these two
solutions). However, as has been the case for several runs now, the
global models are in good agreement in depicting a large moisture
shield around the cyclone. Thus even if the more western ECMWF track
pans out, ample moisture will exist along with modest upslope flow
to support 50-70 pops from late Saturday through the end of the
period. While there will be a diurnal peak in convective activity,
the pattern is such that some degree of convective coverage will
exist outside the normal afternoon evening peak. Heavy rain at least
localized flash flooding will remain a daily concern for the
foreseeable future.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere: shra tsra are lining up this aftn along a
weak sfc boundary and will move thru the sc sites bringing brief
restrictions. Additional, less organized convection is expected
across the nc sites, warranting tempos at kclt kavl and vcts at
khky. The activity should weaken by late aftn; a few minor shra
may last into evening. Overnight a weak cold front is expected to
settle into the area from the n. This will induce a wind shift to
nw at kavl a little before dawn. Convergence near the front may
permit redevelopment of some low to midlevel cloud cover, though
given the veered flow across the piedmont, it is not expected
to be as widespread or prolonged as what occurred Tue morning
in southerly flow. Nonetheless a few hours of MVFR are mentioned
at all sites close to daybreak. Fog is possible overnight mainly
where rain falls this aftn evening, but also in mtn valleys. The
front will remain across the region on Wednesday and looks to aid
in shra tsra development beginning late morning, mainly south of
kavl khky, but worthy of prob30 mention at all sites.

Outlook: the unsettled pattern will continue the rest of the week,
with flight restrictions possible each day under periodic showers
and thunderstorms. Morning stratus fog are possible especially
following heavy rain the previous day.

Confidence table...

19-01z 01-07z 07-13z 13-18z
kclt high 100% high 98% med 75% med 77%
kgsp high 99% high 96% med 76% med 75%
kavl high 99% high 98% med 71% med 61%
khky high 100% high 95% high 84% med 72%
kgmu high 91% high 96% high 87% high 86%
kand med 76% high 99% high 88% med 78%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi64 min ESE 1.9 G 8 84°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi74 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 77°F 1018.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi39 minWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F60°F45%1019.3 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi19 minWSW 710.00 miFair83°F59°F44%1019 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi42 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F63°F48%1018 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi40 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds84°F64°F53%1018.1 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi39 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F63°F54%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW5W5NW3CalmN5CalmSW3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW6SW6SW6S4S5SW4
1 day agoS6S6S6--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8Calm
2 days agoCalmS8S8SE7SE7CalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmS4S5CalmS3S4CalmSW5SE5W4SW7W7S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.