Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:43PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:39 PM EDT (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:14AMMoonset 6:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kgsp 192100
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
500 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will hold sway across our region into the start of the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures will gradually edge up a few degrees
during that time. Meanwhile, a low pressure system, and frontal
pattern, will begin to impact parts of our region late Sunday and
into early next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 500 pm edt Thursday: made some tweaks to hourly temperature
grids based on observations, but no other changes at this time.

Otherwise, an upper ridge will amplify over the southeast and ohio
valley tonight, with the axis shifting east to the carolinas by 00z
Saturday. At the sfc, high pressure will move little tonight thru
Friday, with the center drifting north from eastern tn to
southwestern pa. This high pressure system should keep the area
clear with light winds. Temps will continue a warming trend with
lows tonight and highs tomorrow expected to be a category or two
warmer than today. Fog is expected to develop again tonight in the
mountain valleys and around area lakes, but with slightly higher
dewpoint depressions and warmer min temps, coverage may not be as
much as last couple nights.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
As 2:30 pm edt Thursday: a large upper level high pressure system
will be anchored across our forecast through Saturday. Meanwhile
surface high pressure will extend from parts of the new england
states down through the carolina's and northeast georgia. Most of
the forecast area should have quiet weather conditions right into
the state of the upcoming weekend.

Subtle pattern changes will commence Sunday as the upper level high
shifts off the eastern seaboard, while some low level moisture will
start to enter our forecast area (fa) Sunday afternoon. This influx
of low level moisture will be arriving in a moistening southeast
flow from the atlantic around h85 mb. Cirrus will likely be entering
the picture, as the upper level flow becomes more southwesterly.

The earlier "faster" GFS has slowed with respect to precipitation
development late Sunday afternoon. It is more in line with the new
european model, which is also slower with any precipitation
development. As a result have pulled back on rainfall chances Sunday
afternoon (with a slight chance south) toward early Sunday evening.

As far as the temperatures, the current guidance is very similar to
our running values. As a result only minor adjustments needed.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 200 pm edt: a pattern change will be underway at the start of
the period, as the east coast upper ridge will be in the process of
weakening and progressing east in response to major height falls
emanating from the central conus. Evolution to a bit of a split flow
regime also appears to be in the offing, as global model guidance is
in agreement in closing off an upper low over the arklatx by the end
of the weekend. How this feature evolves (a detail that global model
guidance does not agree upon) will determine the fine points of the
forecast over much of the southeast during the early part of the new
work week. Despite this, it is becoming more obvious that it is
going to rain across our area early next week...

the operational GFS remains the wettest deterministic model (even
among the GEFS system, the operational GFS is one of the wetter
outliers), primarily due to keeping the aforementioned upper low
from phasing into the northern stream until very late in the
forecast period. This results in considerably more surface
development across the southeast, and much more in the way of a warm
conveyor belt precipitation event prior to the arrival of a cold
front on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF depicts more of a frontal
band scenario, albeit a wet one. Regardless of the details, likely
to categorical pops appear warranted across much of the area from
early Monday through early Tuesday. Some concerns linger regarding
the potential for organized perhaps severe convection late Monday
into early Tuesday, but much will depend upon the evolution of the
surface patter. Due to the initially dry air, a warm conveyor belt
precip scenario may tend to establish in situ cold air damming, and
this air mass would have to be dislodged to create more than a very
isolated threat. However, even if this occurs, guidance suggests
that the combination of shear and instability will be adequate for
an isolated threat with the passage of any frontal band on Tuesday.

Much cooler and drier air will begin filtering into the area by late
Tuesday. A moist post-frontal NW flow across the tn valley and
southern appalachians could result in some showers across the high
terrain near the tn border through mid-week, with snow possible in
the higher elevations. Otherwise, the remainder of the medium range
will feature dry weather and temperatures approximately 10 degrees
below climo.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
At kclt and elsewhere: no changes to the kclt TAF for the 21z amd. A
large area of high pressure will remain anchored over the region
through at least the next 30 hours. This will keep skies clear and
winds light thru the period. The only concern will be fog
development again overnight in the mountain valleys and around area
lakes. Even with the fog potential, guidance is showing a bit more
optimistic trend with latest runs. Min temps will not be quite as
cold as last couple nights and dewpts are running about the same, if
not a bit lower in spots. So higher dewpt depressions are expected
heading into the overnight and may limit fog development, despite
very good radiational cooling. I will go with similar fog trends at
kavl as last night for now.

Outlook:VFR conditions will persist through the end of the week
with the only possible exceptions being mtn valley fog stratus
restrictions in the morning. Moisture will begin to return to the
area Saturday in advance of a cold front early next week.

Confidence table...

21-03z 03-09z 09-15z 15-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% low 21% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 94% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi70 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 80°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi80 min SSW 4.1 G 6 73°F 1022.4 hPa

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi50 minWNW 610.00 miFair73°F39°F29%1024.4 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair74°F36°F25%1023.7 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi48 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F39°F28%1023.5 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair76°F39°F27%1023.3 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair72°F36°F27%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrE4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W6W6
1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N5N4CalmNW6E4
2 days agoNE13
G20
N10N8N8N6N6N5N6N4N3N3N4N4CalmNW4N5NE5NE8
G14
NE6E4NE5NE6N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.