Friday, December15, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:13PM Friday December 15, 2017 10:30 PM EST (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:51AMMoonset 3:48PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 160323
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1023 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Dry and cool high pressure will dominate our weather through Sunday
morning. Moisture and a gradual warm-up will return to the area
starting Sunday. A series of disturbances will pass across the area
next week, with a prolonged period of unsettled weather.

Near term through Saturday
As of 1000 pm Friday: moderately tight pressure gradient and
lingering llvl CAA continuing to aid in higher elevation gustiness
this evening. Llvl ridging will build into the cwfa overnight
allowing gustiness to subside. Associated considerable stratocu
acrs NW nc will take much of the night to diminish as well.

Otherwise, just a few ci drifting acrs the southern cwfa within the
quasi-zonal flow aloft. Min temperatures remain on track to be
about a category chillier than climo early Saturday morning. The
upper flow backs to more westerly on Saturday allowing for the
influx of high level moisture back into the SE CONUS later in the
day. Maximum temperatures are slated to climb to near climo.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 215 pm est Friday: a shallow ridge will build over the
southeast as a phasing shortwave lifts through the southern plains.

Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the region will gradually
migrate offshore the latter half of the weekend. The deamplifying
upstream wave will generally lift north of the oh valley Sunday and
then off the mid-atlantic coast Sunday night - leaving the southeast
upper ridge intact. The deeper moisture plume ahead of the phasing
shortwave should impact mainly tn to the west Saturday night through
Sunday morning before the moisture lays over across our region later
Sunday into Sunday night, with brief mid upper drying likely early
Monday morning. This first round should yield mostly light qpf
across our region and thermal profiles should remain warm enough
through the period for any precipitation to fall as liquid.

The upper flow will then become more southwesterly through Monday as
heights fall again over west texas. Deeper moisture will return to
the area from the southwest and some better rates and marginal
instability could return to the lower piedmont. Anticipate the
heaviest rainfall with any passing surface waves on Monday to slip
by mainly just southeast of our forecast area. Monday mins maxes
will run several categories above climo.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 245 pm est Friday: forecast confidence has taken a tumble as
the 12z ECMWF and GFS have come in with significantly different
scenarios, the ECMWF has the larger change from its earlier run, for
the middle of next week. For what it's worth, the canadian is in
between the two while the GEFS mean is closer to the operational gfs
but does have a hint of a slower version of the canadian.

The guidance agrees that the period starts with a split flow across
the conus. The GFS keeps the systems more progressive moving the
northern and southern stream troughs into the area by Tuesday night
and off shore Wednesday. The ECMWF keeps the streams separate moving
the northern stream trough east of the area by Tuesday night. The
southern stream wave is much stronger and slower as a closed low
which moves into the lower ms valley Tuesday night, into the tn
valley Wednesday, then across the appalachians Thursday. Of course,
this creates quite a difference in the surface pattern as well. A
wave forms along the stalled frontal system to the south and spreads
moisture and precip into the area as it moves east. As expected, the
ecmwf is quite a bit slower than the gfs. The GFS then moves a
northern stream cold front through the area Tuesday night with dry
high pressure for Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF is slower with a
stronger southern stream low pressure system. This northern stream
cold front moves into the area Wednesday as moisture increases ahead
of the low. The low then slowly crosses the area Wednesday night
with decreasing precip chances on Thursday. QPF is quite a bit
higher on the ECMWF than the gfs. Temps are warm, so all of the
precip would be liquid in both scenarios. Given the wide difference
in solutions, have gone with a guidance blend which has chance pop
for Monday night and Tuesday with diminishing pop for Tuesday night
and a dry Wednesday. Temps ramp up from above normal Monday to well
above normal for Tuesday then slowly down to around 5 degrees above
normal for Thursday.

Guidance does agree on a frontal system moving into the area by late
Friday with some timing differences. Have pop increasing back to the
chance range during the day. Temps will be above normal.

Aviation 04z Saturday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere: expectVFR through the valid TAF period.

Back edge of thicker high cloud shield will translate SE of the fa
this evening while a period of upslope stratocu lingers acrs the
western slopes and NW nc before dissipating overnight. Clear skies
Saturday morning will give way to an increase in high clouds later
in the day. Northwest winds, on the light side outside of the mtns
will becoming SW before midday Saturday.

Outlook: potential for short-lived restrictions on Sunday with rain
showers. Otherwise, expectVFR as a series of dry cold fronts move
through the area.

Confidence table...

15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z
kclt high 81% high 82% med 68% low 56%
kgsp med 70% med 75% high 83% med 64%
kavl high 94% high 85% med 70% high 87%
khky high 100% high 83% med 66% high 100%
kgmu med 76% high 86% high 85% med 63%
kand med 76% med 65% high 90% med 61%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi61 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 44°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi71 min WNW 6 G 11 44°F 1019 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair30°F23°F75%1020 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi46 minSW 410.00 miFair28°F21°F76%1019 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi39 minNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds34°F24°F67%1019.5 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair36°F21°F55%1019.7 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi46 minNW 510.00 miFair32°F16°F53%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE4CalmNE4NE4NE3N4N5N5N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmW6NW5NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago----W4SW6SW7SW6SW4SW4SW3S3SW5W8W8W8W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmCalm
2 days agoNW5CalmN4CalmNW6N4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW8SW6W7SW9SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.