Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:47PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 8:37 PM EDT (00:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:27PMMoonset 11:42PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 170029
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
829 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
A slowly-moving cold front will gradually drift southeast of
our region on Wednesday. Dry high pressure will return for Thursday
and Friday. Another cold front will bring moisture back to the area
for Saturday before much cooler and drier air arrives on Sunday and
lingers through Monday.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 830 pm edt Tuesday: main update for the 00z TAF issuance along
with minor tweaks made to pops temperatures winds to coincide with
latest trends, as the rest of the near term forecast remains on
track.

With the loss of daytime heating, it seems the window for isolated
thunderstorms along and south of the i-85 corridor within the fa has
come to a close. Do expect isolated showers to continue to move
eastward over the next few hours, before diminishing in
coverage as the front continues to push southeastward across the
fa. Total rainfall amounts should range from 0.25-0.5 inch
across much of western nc through this evening, with locally
higher amounts possible across the smokies and vicinity where
mechanical lift in W SW flow could periodically enhance rainfall
rates.

Min temps will generally be above normal, except perhaps across
northern sections as well as the western-most mtn valleys and high
elevations, where sufficiently adequate cold advection may develop
to send min temps down closer to climo.

Wednesday will see steadily clearing conditions throughout the
morning, although it may take until afternoon for the clouds to
finally succumb to downslope flow and dry air advection, ESP across
the piedmont of the upstate northeast ga and southern nc. Decreasing
thickness values and cold advection will be largely offset by
downslope flow in the lee of the mtns tomorrow, and MAX temps may
end up only a few degrees cooler than today (i.E., still several
degrees warmer than climo) in those areas, while the mountains are
expected to see maxes 0-5 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, much
drier air will trickle in behind the front, and 30s 40s dewpoints
will likely have pushed into at least the northwest half of the cwa
by this time tomorrow.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
As of 215 pm edt Tuesday: the near-term cold front will be south of
the area as we push into the short term, with overnight lows
Wednesday dropping at least 10 if not 15 degrees cooler than what
we'll see tonight. Solid 40s across most of the piedmont with near
50 in the upper savannah valley, and 30s across the mountains... And
flirting with freezing over the northern mountains. Pressure
gradient behind the departing front and incoming surface high will
keep conditions fairly breezy at the start of the period, with
typical gap winds coming up the mountain valleys in the NW surface
flow, but valley winds will drop off overnight and should see patchy
to areas of frost forming in those sheltered areas. For now, does
not look widespread enough to issue a frost advisory, but this is
3rd period anyway so forecast updates tonight and tomorrow will take
a closer look.

For Thursday, expect the coolest highs thus far this season,
generally 5-8 degrees below normal, with winds shifting to the NE as
the surface high settles over the oh valley. Upper trough that
pushed the front through will be moving off the coast as ridging
builds up the plains ahead of the next upper system. A little cooler
across the piedmont Thursday night as the cool high settles in
place, but weakening CAA will result in slightly warmer temperatures
across the mountains Thursday night. Maybe a little frost in the
mountains with winds diminishing, but temperatures will be slightly
less supportive.

The surface high will move off the nc coast Friday afternoon,
beginning a bit of weak return flow across the area, with a slight
increase in temps but not a remarkable one, maybe a degree or two.

Moisture lifting up into the southern plains around the upper ridge
dominating the gulf coast fl peninsula bahamas will be pulled into
the incoming front across the ms valley, pushed by a shortwave
ejecting out of the rockies from the upper low there. Clouds will
increase during the day ahead of the front and should start seeing
some very light precip move into the mountains late in the period.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 210 pm edt Tuesday: a shallow upper ridge will be pushed
southeast of our region Friday night as a significant 500mb trough
crosses the upper mississippi valley. The associated cold front will
be advancing across tennessee Saturday morning with a rather narrow
area of rain and some convection ahead of the front. Instability
should be low with CAPE on the GFS of 100 or less. Cold front
crosses our area late Saturday with a brief period of NW flow
upslope early Saturday night. Height falls into Sunday as the axis
of the trough passes. The center of the cool canadian high will be
over missouri early Sunday and forecast to be over va and western nc
early Monday. Frost and freeze conditions are most likely Sunday
night across the nc mountains with near calm wind and a clear sky.

The axis of the trough moves off the east coast Sunday night with
height rises for Monday and leveling off on Tuesday. Expect a few
more high clouds Monday night and some light wind giving slightly
milder temperatures. About the same for Tuesday night. Another cold
front is forecast to reach our region in mid week but height falls
much less as colder air should remain north of our region.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere: with the exception of kavl, which
currently has ifr due to low CIGS -shra,VFR prevails across the
area this evening with sct bkn mid to high level clouds. Isolated to
scattered showers are gradually beginning to diminish in coverage as
seen from latest radar trends, as the cold front continues to slowly
push southeastward through the fa. Do expect the potential for tsra
across the fa has dissipated, and thus will allow the tempo
currently at kclt to end at 01z as expected. Periods of MVFR
will be possible in any heavier downpours through tonight.

Overnight, expect rainfall to diminish as drier air infiltrates in
behind the cold front. However, with plenty of low level moisture in
place, guidance continues to suggest lowered CIGS and patchy areas
of fog late overnight through daybreak, creating MVFR. Anticipate
conditions to improve toVFR soon after daybreak with few sct mid to
high level clouds and NW winds 5 to 7 kts. Higher gusts at kavl
possible.

Outlook: dry high pressure should persist through Friday. Moisture
then increases early in the weekend, with a chance for widespread
rain and restrictions developing Saturday.

Confidence table...

00-06z 06-12z 12-18z 18-00z
kclt high 96% high 96% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 99% high 100% high 100%
kavl med 70% med 76% high 93% high 100%
khky high 95% high 91% high 97% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 97% high 99% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi67 min Calm G 1 76°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi77 min Calm G 0 80°F 1017.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi47 minN 03.00 miRain Fog/Mist68°F66°F94%1020.3 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi47 minN 07.00 miLight Rain67°F67°F100%1020 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi45 minNE 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F68°F96%1019.2 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast71°F69°F94%1019.4 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F66°F98%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5CalmN5N10Calm
1 day agoCalmCalm--N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW6SW10SW12
G16
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SW12SW5SW7SW5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N5N5N5N5NE5N4N4E4E4N4N6N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.