Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:02PM Friday April 20, 2018 4:31 PM EDT (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:30AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 201850
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
250 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure atop the region to start off the weekend will give way
to increasing moisture on Sunday. Low pressure will then track east
across the area Monday and Tuesday triggering rounds of rainfall.

Near term through Saturday
A quiet near term is store as strong sfc hipres is advanced across
the mid-atl region ahead of an h5 S W ridge. The column will remain
quite dry and no chance of precip let alone clouds will be had
across the fa. Winds will weaken within the bl as well thus there
will be no sigfnt gust potential as well. Mins will cool off
efficiently tonight within very good rad cooling conds and patchy
frost is possible outside the mtns over the nc piedmont. This frost
shud not be widespread enuf for a fr.Y and will be mentioned in the
hwo. However... A fr.Y will be issued for the SRN nc mtns and extreme
ne ga where sfc tdd S will be low enuf for areas of frost formation.

Mins will drop to or just below normal most locales and MAX temps
sat will likely be held a couple degrees below normal within a
reinforcing cp airmass.

Short term Saturday night through Tuesday night
As of 230 pm edt Friday: fair weather will come to an end Saturday
night. It still looks like our weekend weather will go downhill
steadily on Sunday as an upper low moves gradually east from the srn
plains to the ms valley with a classic split flow pattern aloft. A
nrn stream upper ridge will support slow moving sfc high pressure
over the lower gt lakes SRN ontario on Sunday that will ridge down
east of the blue ridge. Meanwhile, moisture will return from the
gulf atlantic ahead of the approaching upper low, with isentropic
lift and warm advection commencing over the top of the sfc ridge
east of the mtns. The increasing moisture and forcing should allow
light precip to break out from SW to ne, initially close to the blue
ridge escarpment thru Sunday afternoon, but there remains timing
differences between the model solutions as to when the precip will
begin, with the NAM being the fastest and the gfs ECMWF hanging back
to the west thru the end of the day. SREF plume diagrams suggest the
operational NAM might be too quick, so no big changes were made to
the precip probabilities at onset Sunday. By the end of the day,
once precip breaks out, all the ingredients should be in place
for a cold air damming event to begin by Sunday evening. Once
established, the cad wedge will remain in place for the early
part of the week. The upper pattern slows down Sunday night and
Monday as the NRN stream ridge moves out ahead and phases with a
srn stream ridge along the east coast, so the upper low progresses
only slowly to the tn valley where it essentially grinds to a halt
by late Monday. The result will be a prolonged period of excellent
isentropic lift that develops overspreads the region Sunday night
and persists through Tuesday that should bring widespread precip
to the western carolinas and northeast georgia. The strong and
relatively deep southeast flow will probably focus the higher
amounts over northeast ga, upstate sc, and the upper french broad
valley mainly late Sunday night through Monday night, with the
potential for a widespread 2-3 inch rainfall. It is too early to
speculate on flood potential, though, as the ensemble guidance
shows a great deal of spread. A lack of sfc-based convection
and pw holding somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.0 to 1.25 inch
might be limiting factors. The upper low should eventually open
up late Tuesday and get kicked out to the northeast by the next
strong upper system diving down over the plains. As that happens,
precip chances will slowly diminish from SW to NE late Tuesday
thru daybreak on Wednesday. Temps will be tricky throughout with
a low diurnal range expected. If the precip begins too early
Sunday, the MAX temps will easily be a category or two on the
warm side. Monday the temps will struggle to get out of the 50s,
and perhaps the same can be said about Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
As of 225 pm edt Friday: the second of a series of upper lows
approaches the area Wednesday and crosses the area Thursday. The
guidance is in some disagreement on the third in the series during
the Friday time frame. The ECMWF is slower and farther south while
the GFS is faster and farther north. At the surface, the damming
high erodes Wednesday as the low pressure center moves up the east
coast and away from the area. This brings a brief end to precip as
isentropic upglide ends. However, precip returns Wednesday night and
Thursday as the surface low and cold front associated with the
second upper low crosses the area. However forcing and low level
inflow is not that strong, so precip will be light. Precip
diminishes Thursday night as that system moves out of the area but
returns once again for Friday as either a cold front, gfs, or
developing low pressure system, ecmwf, moves into the area. Too
early to tell if any of this QPF will be heavy or if thunderstorms
develop. Lows bounce around near normal each morning while highs
bounce around from just below to 5 degrees below normal each day.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere: a strong sfc high will cross the mid atl and
ridge in from the northeast thru the period. No flight restrictions
will be had as the column remains very dry thru a deep layer. The
sfc flow will remain weak and aligned NE ly veering to SE ly across
the non mtns... And maintained down valley at kavl.

Outlook: flight restrictions may develop late Sunday into Monday as
a warm front lifts northward over the area, bringing deeper moisture
up from the gulf of mexico.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi62 min SW 1 G 7 69°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi72 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 1025.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi97 minN 710.00 miFair63°F26°F25%1027.8 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi42 minNE 6 G 1610.00 miFair64°F25°F23%1026.1 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi40 minNNE 810.00 miFair66°F30°F26%1026.2 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi38 minWSW 310.00 miFair66°F33°F29%1025.8 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi37 minE 310.00 miFair62°F21°F21%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN15
G22
N16
G26
N14
G26
N8
G18
N13
G18
N10
G19
--N6N3N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E6NE5N10CalmN8N7Calm
1 day agoSW12
G21
SW15
G24
SW17
G25
SW13
G18
SW13
G21
SW17
G23
--SW17
G23
SW18
G24
SW15
G21
SW11
G21
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G17
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G18
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G18
SW10
G15
W4W8
G16
NW14
G18
W17
G23
NW15
G22
NW12
G20
NW15
G25
NW15
G25
2 days agoSW12
G15
SW9
G14
SW9
G14
W5SW5SW7SW8SW10SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW6S6SW9S12
G19
S9SW12
G18
SW13
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.