Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:32PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 201512
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1112 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
Cooler temperatures and lingering showers are expected today behind
a departing cold front. Temperatures increase to well above normal
levels by early next week. Rain chances increase by the end of next
week as a cold front moves into the area.

Near term through tonight
As of 1050 am... Closed upper low is now centered on the southern
appalachians, with an axis of vorticity oriented from near knoxville
to central ga. While sfc-based instability is minimal across the
cwfa, showers are blossoming across the upstate, aided by the
upper vort. Hrrr seems to have captured the trends well early on,
so updated pops follow it fairly closely as it depicts continued
expansion and eastward motion of shower activity. A couple hundred
joules of SBCAPE are progged by early aftn across the central and
eastern cwfa, and rap profiles suggest the convective layer will
reach up to icy temps. Thus a few stronger cells producing graupel
and even maybe a little thunder can be expected.

Snow levels are likely to fall down to 4-5k feet where not
already; diurnal heating and falling heights thicknesses largely
will cancel each other out so that will limit them from falling
lower. The better rates over the mtns will be later today, with
deeper moisture rotating in on the back side of the low. Snow may
briefly fall as low as around 3k feet in heavier showers. Shower
activity will quickly come to an end this evening, especially away
from the tn border and as the best dynamics shift NE of the region
with the low itself and we lose steep llvl lapse rates associated
with diurnal heating. QPF will be generally a quarter of an inch or
less, although locally over half an inch for areas that experience
heavier showers, especially across higher elevations. With the
high april Sun angle (similar to that of late august), currently
expect any advisory level snowfall (greater than an inch) to but
largely above 5k ft elevation (where 2 to 4+ inches is possible)
and therefore will not require any winter products at this time. Due
to the showery nature, it is possible that up to 2 inches of snow
could accumulate down to 4k feet locally. Due to the proximity
of the cold core low pressure system highs will be well below
normal with highs in the 40s to near 50 mtn valleys to 50s east
of the mountains. It will likely feel much cooler than this with
the abundant cloud cover and breezy winds. Wet-bulb cooling is
likely beneath any precip today (snow mention was revised based
on tw values). Lows tonight under gradually clearing skies will
generally be in the 40s, except mid to upper 30s for mtn valleys
(possibly requiring a frost advisory).

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 220 am edt Saturday: upper low slowly moves east across va
Sunday keeping cyclonic flow across the area. Low level moisture
lingers across the area but does become shallow through the day.

Northwest low level flow slowly diminishes as well. This will bring
an end to any lingering precip across the mountains during the
morning. However, expect clouds to linger across the mountains
through the day with clouds spreading out downstream across the
foothills and piedmont as well. Gusty winds continue as well but
should be below advisory level even across the mountains. Highs will
increase but remain around 5 degrees below normal.

The low moves off shore on Monday with ridging building in from the
west by Monday night. This brings an end to the cyclonic flow with
an increase in thickness values. Winds and clouds diminish as well.

Lows will be slightly below normal Sunday night then around 5
degrees above normal Monday night. Highs Monday will be around 15
degrees above normal across the mountains and around 5 degrees above
normal elsewhere.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 345 am edt Saturday: model guidance continues to show
differing solutions during the medium range regarding the developing
split flow across the eastern conus. The GFS remains more
progressive with phasing of the streams and waves remaining
generally open, with the southern stream wave moving into the area
late Thursday and east of the area by late Friday. The ecmwf
continues to show no phasing of the initial northern stream wave.

The southern stream wave closes off into an upper low then
eventually phases with a second northern stream wave moving into the
area on Friday.

The surface patterns show high pressure over the area move off shore
and weaken with a lee trough developing as a low pressure center
moves by to our north. The GFS has the low farther south with a
stronger lee trough compared to the ecmwf. Kept some diurnal
mountain convection Tuesday and Wednesday, but limited it to slight
chance. Temperatures will be well above normal both days.

The GFS shows a wetter pattern for Thursday with precip tapering off
late in the day Friday as cold front and surface low associated with
the phasing streams moves across the area. The ECMWF is slower. Have
gone with a model blend given the timing differences. This means pop
increasing into the chance range by the Thursday afternoon and
continuing into Friday. There will be enough instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms, but severe and heavy rain threat looks
low for now. Temperatures remain well above normal but with a slight
cooling trend on Friday.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere: an upper low over the ohio valley will rotate
through the region bringing increasing MVFR CIGS and -shra activity
through 18z, gradually dissipating between 20z and 02z from S to n.

Sw wind gusts around 20 kts will be common but may locally reach 30
kts in heavier showers thru 00z. Runways above 3k feet may see
showers mix with or turn over to snow at times. There is an outside
chance of snow mixing in at kavl before 14z. There is some
uncertainty as to how quickly low clouds scatter out after 00z.

Outlook:VFR conds are expected to prevail thru early next week.

Confidence table...

15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z
kclt med 71% high 88% low 55% high 85%
kgsp high 89% high 96% high 85% high 100%
kavl med 75% high 89% med 74% high 84%
khky med 75% high 87% med 70% high 85%
kgmu high 87% med 75% high 100% high 100%
kand high 91% med 64% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi50 min SSE 11 G 16 56°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi60 min SSW 13 G 17 54°F 1007.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi30 minSSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F41°F63%1007.8 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi20 minSW 510.00 miDrizzle47°F42°F83%1006.8 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi28 minS 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast52°F39°F64%1006.9 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi26 minS 710.00 miLight Rain51°F41°F69%1007 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi40 minSW 10 G 1510.00 miLight Rain48°F40°F77%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10
G17
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S3S7S8
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--------------SW8SW6SW10SW13
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1 day agoS10
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S8CalmCalmCalmS8--------------S4SE5S8
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2 days agoNW3SE3CalmSW7SW8SW4SW4SW4S3CalmCalm--------------S5S4SW7SW9S8
G14
S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.