Thursday, July19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:38PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:04 AM EDT (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 190546
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
146 am edt Thu jul 19 2018

A weak stationary front will remain just south of the area while
high pressure builds down from the north for the latter half of the
week. A large upper low is expected to drop down from the great
lakes to the ohio valley and southern appalachians starting on
Friday night, making our weather unsettled for the weekend. A fairly
wet weather pattern will continue through the middle of next week.

Near term through today
As of 1:30 am edt Thursday: one lone shower remains across the fcst
area and it is moving northward from chester county into york county.

Additional isolated showers will remain possible overnight, with the
western zones most likely to see development. Otherwise, as the sfc
high behind the front moves eastward, winds become more sely. This
provides increased chances for showers and thunderstorms over the
cwfa later today as new moisture moves up from the southeast. Cams
have only widely scattered showers, with better coverage west of
gsp. Sufficient moisture continues at midlevels with clouds limiting
highs to 5 or so degrees below normal.

Though fog development has been the trend the past few nights and
dewpoint depressions will be around 5 degrees or less, do anticipate
fog development will be inhibited tonight as sfc high pressure
continues to build in and boundary layer winds remain elevated. Low
temperatures will hover around normal.

Short term tonight through Saturday
As of 215 pm edt Wednesday: as we start the extended, a progressive
upper pattern remains in place with a trough off the east coast, a
shortwave ridge stretched up the appalachians and into the eastern
great lakes, a strong upper ridge over the desert southwest, and a
potent little shortwave diving down across the upper midwest toward
the ms valley. The surface front attendant with the upper trough
will be draped across the southeast, with the western portion being
pulled up north toward the tn valley as the midwest upper low pulls
it into its synoptic system. Meanwhile the damming surface high
underneath the shortwave ridge will be pushing offshore, with a
residual cool pool in place still dammed up against the southern
appalachians. Should see another afternoon of below-normal
temperatures Friday afternoon with the residual cool pool in place,
with most of the convection remaining to the south and east, beyond
the periphery of wedge front, with token chance pops across our
area, but the bigger concern will be late Friday night as the
convection associated with the incoming upper low pushes toward the
oh valley. Guidance is all pointing to the possibility of some sort
of MCS developing and pushing southeast toward the deep south. Spc
day 3 marginal risk just barely touches our extreme western
counties, and the timing for this would be late Friday night into
early Saturday. Deep-layer shear of just over 40kt collocated with
about 500-700j kg SBCAPE does cause some cause for concern, but the
chances of any MCS (firstly assuming it doesn't go farther south)
actually crossing the mountains is pretty slim, so agree with the
placement of the marginal risk.

Of additional concern is Saturday afternoon as capes rise again
ahead of the incoming front, the wedge front erodes, and deep layer
shear, though marginal, is between 30-40kt. GFS progs of SBCAPE are
over 2000j kg, though the placement of this will be highly dependent
on where the surface trough ends up setting up and if leftover cloud
debris from the Friday night MCS ends up limiting insolation more
than expected. No outlook yet for day 4 due to predictability
issues, but would not be surprised if a marginal of some sort is
introduced. Will have to watch this closely over the next couple of
days. Another afternoon of below-normal temperatures expected with
the likely pops Saturday afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 210 pm edt Wednesday: starting 00z Sunday... The big upper low
will be over either ohio or near the southern tip of lake michigan.

Height falls will occur over our area through Sunday as the upper
trough becomes established for our area. The axis of this trough is
now forecast to remain somewhere over the carolinas and or ga
through the first half of the upcoming week.

At the surface, the second wave of energy ahead of the upper low is
forecast to cross our region Saturday night. The GFS is more
progressive in pushing this wave to the coast by early Sunday
morning. The ECMWF is slower in taking this feature across our
region taking well into Sunday before it slides the bulk of the rain
toward the coast. Precipitable water values of around 2 inches late
Saturday from NE ga and across upstate sc will slide gradually to
the coast Saturday night. The high pwats will contribute to high
rain rates with the convection before this moves out due to the
progression of the approaching trough. By Monday, the trough will be
well established and models vary on the degree of moisture and
convection under the upper low. Of course, with the lower freezing
levels with the upper low, hail may be more prevalent with the
stronger convection. The latest GFS takes the axis of the trough
west to eastern alabama on Monday. The GFS even takes the weakening
upper low to the mississippi delta on Tuesday. This would increase
the moist fetch of air off the eastern gulf and atlantic into mid
week. By late Wednesday, the next upper trough will be dipping down
from the upper mississippi valley. CAPE values through the medium
range start out with a MAX of 2700 over lake hartwell at 00z Sunday
on the GFS which would fuel the strong convection that evening. Cape
drops to 1100 to 1300 late Sunday and slowly recovers into mid week.

Max temperatures about a category below normal and min temperatures
at or just above normal due to the cloud cover.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: expect mostlyVFR conditions thru the 06z taf
period. The only exception is brief MVFR CIGS at kavl, kgsp, kgmu,
and kand later this morning beginning in the 10 to 12z timeframe.

Confidence is not real high that skies will actually go bkn to ovc,
and they may remain sct during that period. Also, CIGS at kavl could
remain MVFR for a few hours longer than the other sites. Otherwise,
we can expect sct to bkn cloud decks in the 4000 to 6000ft range thru
the rest of the day evening. As the surface high behind the front
edges eastward, winds will gradually veer from nely to more ely this
afternoon. Kclt is expected to veer even more to a sely direction
by the mid to late afternoon. There is some chance for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms today, especially over the western zones
and higher terrain. This warranted a prob30 for tsra at kavl from
20 to 24z.

Outlook: expect more typical summertime conditions to return during
the late week and over the weekend with chances for widespread showers
and thunderstorms increasing. Fog and or low stratus will be possible
most mornings, particularly over the mountain valleys and over areas
that received significant precipitation.

Confidence table...

05-11z 11-17z 17-23z 23-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% med 70% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 90% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% med 70% high 95% high 100%
kand high 100% high 95% high 90% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi35 min Calm G 2.9 78°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi45 min E 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 1013.5 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi70 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F65%1017.3 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast73°F63°F72%1016.6 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi73 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F66°F61%1015.1 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast78°F64°F64%1015.2 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi70 minENE 410.00 miOvercast75°F63°F66%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW4CalmN8N5N3N3N7N8N11N7NE7NW7E3N6NE7NE3NE3NE4CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW4SW3CalmCalmSW6SW4W6SW9SW4SW7SW9S7SW7W9NW10SW10SW7W5W5--W4W3W3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW6S7SW5SW9SW10S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.