Thursday, January24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:44PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:20 AM EST (10:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 10:07AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 240830
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
330 am est Thu jan 24 2019

A cold front will move east of the region this morning, with
lingering northwest flow moisture drying up in the western mountains
through noon. A reinforcing cold front will arrive from the
northwest late tonight, but with very limited moisture. Weak and dry
high pressure will then move over the area for the early part of the
weekend, but with weak upper-level disturbances crossing the region
from the west for the latter half of the weekend into early next
week. A stronger cold front, with more moisture, may cross the area
from the northwest on Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am: low pressure now moving into quebec, in association
with a trough extending south across the eastern conus, will drive a
cold front thru the area this morning. Winds are beginning to shift
to NW in east tn and northern ga. Preceding the front, a band of
moderate rainfall persists within strong southerly flow across the
area. Winds are southerly all the way down to the lowest level on
kgsp and tclt vad profiles, and temps have risen near if not above
60 across the eastern zones. The strongest portion of the LLJ likely
has pushed east of the area, though the vad winds are still around
50 kt at around 5 kft agl. Whatever tiny severe threat resulted from
these winds most likely peaked with the fine line of convection
that is now exiting the area. Occasional drizzle or light precip
is expected to persist with weak upglide continuing over the area,
and additional bands of moderate showers may redevelop over the
next few hrs until the base of the upper trough pushes into the
area and the moisture plume shifts east. Temps have been revised
following the hrrr, which is doing a pretty good job of keeping up
with the trends. A cooling trend will begin in the mtns by around
daybreak, with values over the whole area becoming nearly steady
by late morning as downsloping sets up behind the front. MAX temps
will be a little below normal over the mtns, ranging to several
degrees above normal in the far east.

After initially clear skies, periods of cirrus are expected to be
seen again in the remainder of the period. As cold advection and nw
flow set up over the mtns, any remaining precip will change to snow
there before ending. Moisture is initially quite shallow beneath
the subsidence inversion associated with the incoming airmass, and
a lull in the snow showers is expected this afternoon and evening
before a secondary cold front brings reinforcing moisture early
Friday morning, raising chances to mentionable values again. Between
the two periods of snow, accumulation up to 1 inch is possible in
the most favored upslope areas.

Lastly, with a relatively strong pressure gradient of 6-7 mb across
the mountains late this morning and early afternoon within strong
caa, some guidance members do indicate a few wind gusts to 40
mph or more are possible in the northern mountains. We will post
a wind advisory beginning at 10 am. Though gusts to that level
will become increasingly infrequent heading into the evening,
enough wind will persist to warrant keeping the advisory until
midnight. Temps will fall back to a few degrees below climo for
tonight under mostly clear skies east of the mtns.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 245 am Thursday: a shortwave embedded in a broad trough over
the eastern u.S. Will cross the southern appalachians Friday morning
and then move quickly east of the region Friday afternoon. Any
lingering low-level northwest flow moisture in the cold air will dry
up very quickly through the morning hours, with just lingering
isolated to scattered snow showers in the tn border counties of the
nc mountains for a few hours after daybreak. Weak and dry surface
high pressure will then set up over the area the rest of Friday
through Friday night.

Meanwhile, broad cyclonic upper flow will remain in place through
Saturday. Another round of clipper-type moisture may reach the
region in W to NW flow Saturday morning, but dry up quickly over the
southern appalachians. Temperatures will likely remain 5 to 10
degrees below climatology through the period.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 245 am Thursday: additional shortwave features will move
through the broad cyclonic flow over the eastern u.S. For the latter
half of the weekend, with the most potent wave crossing over the
region on Sunday. Some moisture accompanies these waves, but it
generally dries up before, or upon, reaching the southern
appalachians. Will confine any isolated to scattered rain snow
shower pops to the nc mountains for now. Briefly zonal flow will
then set up over the area Sunday night into Monday behind the
passing shortwave.

Deep layer southwesterly flow will return late Monday as heights
begin to fall more sharply over the central conus. The upstream
trough will continue to sharpen up over the ms valley on Tuesday and
then cross the southern appalachians on Wednesday. The best
precipitation chances through the period will be in the deeper
moisture band along the passing cold front Tuesday. In fact, much of
the moisture may follow the front in the cold air, leading to
changeover ptype issues (rain versus snow), mainly in the mountains.

Another round of moisture could arrive in the heart of the cold
trough on Wednesday, but confidence is quite low on precipitation
chances so will shotgun 20 pops for a rain snow mix across the area.

Temperatures fairly close to climo early in the period will fall
drastically back below climo by mid week.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: tricky forecast this morning. Restrictive
cigs will persist until cold front scours out cold-air damming in
the first few daytime hrs. Light to moderate rain is generally
expected during this time, bringing mainly MVFR cigs. Heavier
showers will occur in a prefrontal band that is now working its way
thru the region and are likely to bring a period of ifr. Tempos
have been used to try to time this. It is possible that some ifr
will develop closer to daybreak, as rainfall rates taper off, but
confidence is relatively low on this occurrence with continued
mixing resulting from the breezy conditions. As winds turn more
westerly behind the front later this morning, CAA and downsloping
in the pbl will end precip east of the appalachian spine, and clear
out restrictions. Gusts will develop at all sites, persisting into
tonight at kavl.

Outlook: dry high pressure returns at the end of the week, and
a series of weak clipper systems may affect parts of the region
early next week. Precipitation and accompanied restrictions are
most likely in the mtns if these materialize.

Confidence table...

08-14z 14-20z 20-02z 02-06z
kclt high 84% high 91% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 83% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl med 77% high 81% high 100% high 100%
khky med 73% high 90% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 87% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 83% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi51 min SE 2.9 G 6 60°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi61 min S 8.9 G 11 58°F 1004.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi31 minSSW 6 G 167.00 miLight Rain59°F58°F97%1002.7 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi29 minS 12 G 206.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F57°F90%1002.9 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi27 minSSW 8 G 205.00 miRain63°F57°F84%1002.5 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi41 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miDrizzle59°F57°F94%1002 hPa

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmN4N4N3SE6S6SE4S10
1 day ago--------------CalmCalmCalmSE3S3S3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--------------NE10NE5N10N10N8N6NW7NW4N7NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.