Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chocowinity, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:26PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:19 AM EDT (05:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 9:19AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 944 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Monday night through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft, then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chocowinity, NC
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location: 35.51, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 250135
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
935 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis High pressure offshore will influence the weather
into Monday. A storm system will impact the region late Monday
into Tuesday. High pressure building down the east coast will
then dominate later Tuesday into the second half of the week.

The next front will approach next weekend..

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 935 pm sun... No changes to previous thinking. Atlantic
high pressure will produce a mild southerly flow across nc
tonight and Monday as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Widespread cirrus clouds will continue to stream into
the region overnight. The combination of light southerly flow
and clouds will result in much milder low temps. Upper 40s to
lower 50s will be the rule, except for lower to mid 50s for the
outer banks.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 330 pm sun... The front to the northwest will move steadily
southeast during the day, reaching the albemarle sound area by
late afternoon. Time sections show moisture increasing deepening
ahead of it, but mainly in the afternoon. Will leave pops as is,
with 20-30% along west of highway 17 in the morning, increasing
in the afternoon to likely along the coastal plain to 40% outer
banks and south coast. SPC has the area in general thunder.

Instability indices in the models are marginal, so will keep
thunder mention at slight chance. Highs will be in the
mid upper 60s northeast counties to mid 70s southwest.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 345 pm sun... No big changes to the forecast with
categorical precip chances Monday night. Unsettled to start the
period as a complex low pressure area and front affect the
region, then dry high pressure builds in with dry conditions
through late in the week. Next cold front and precip chances
arrive by late next weekend.

Monday night through Tuesday... A complex and broad frontal
system will impact the east coast through early Tuesday.

Moisture advection peaks Monday night as we will be located
within the warm sector of the approaching system. Surface low
pressure will slide across the appalachians into the carolinas
Monday evening, then deepen as it moves slowly offshore on
Tuesday. Confidence still high that widespread showers will move
through on Monday night. A few rumbles of thunder remain
possible, though instability will be too low for a severe
threat.

Strong winds and coastal flood concerns will emerge beginning
Tuesday, as deepening low offshore in tandem with building high
across the great lakes mid atlantic strengthen gradient winds.

Wind adv criteria (gusts > 45mph) should be met for coastal
counties for a time, ESP obx zones and downeast carteret. The
strong N to NE winds will likely lead to minor coastal flooding
issues.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Reinforcing cyclogenesis may
occur off the southeast u.S. Coast Tue night through wed, as
another vort lobe swings around base of primary upr trough, as
depicted in 24 12z global model suite. While this next low
should be far enough south to limit threat of rain, the
northeasterly gradient will remain tight, and persistent
moderately strong winds will continue to exacerbate coastal
flood, high surf, and even beach erosion concerns. Temps inland
may come close to freezing for lows Wed morning, and even below
freezing if winds decouple. Will have to watch for potential
frost freeze headlines.

Wednesday night through Saturday... High pressure will begin to
build in more earnestly, with gusty coastal winds abating, and
dry weather will continue. Temps may be close to freezing again
for lows thur morning, then moderate into the 60s by afternoon.

Building hts thicknesses will lead to temps rising to above
climo by Friday into Saturday.

Sunday... While quite a ways out still, have introduced a 20% chc
rain for Sunday, when next cold front could impact E nc. As
expected this far out, there is quite a bit of spread amongst
model ensemble solutions, so timing is subject to change.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 705 pm sun... High confidence inVFR conditions through
most if not all of the TAF period. High pressure offshore will
control the weather through midday Monday with only broken mid
to high clouds and isolated showers expected through midday
Monday in an increasingly moist southerly flow . Conditions will
deteriorate late Monday as a cold front sinks into the area but
the consensus of the aviation guidance forecasts prevailing sub
vfr conditions to hold off until after 00z Monday evening when
precipitation becomes widespread.

Long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 345 pm sun... Flight restrictions are possible Monday
night through Tuesday morning as a broad and complex storm
system impacts the area.VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly
winds arrive during the day Tuesday, likely continuing through
Wednesday.VFR Thursday and Friday.

Marine
Short term through Monday ...

as of 935 pm sun... No changes to previous thinking. Good
boating conditions will last through Monday, then rapidly go
downhill Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure off the coast
will continue moving east, while a cold front gradually moves
toward the area from the northwest Monday. The south to
southwest flow between these two features will remain 5-15 kt
with a few gusts to 20 kt northern waters through Monday with
seas 1-3 feet.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 345 pm sun... Introduced a gale watch for Tuesday into
early Wednesday, as low pressure deepens offshore and strong
high pressure builds into the mid atlantic region. Dangerous
boating conditions are expected during this period, and even
beyond into late week as gradient will be slow to relax.

Southwest winds will remain relatively light over the waters
through Monday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The
cold front low pressure area will pass off the coast early
Tuesday morning. The low will deepen offshore Tuesday, with
gales quickly developing before daybreak. While the gales will
diminish only slightly to strong SCA by Wednesday, it will
remain treacherous with high seas continuing through late in the
week possibly. Seas peak as high as 10-14 ft Tuesday into
Tuesday nigh when the strongest winds are expected.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night
for amz130-131-135-150.

Gale watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning
for amz152-154.

Gale watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning
for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Tl
aviation... Jme hsa tl
marine... Jme hsa tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 59 mi31 min 61°F 59°F1023.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 68 mi79 min SSW 7 G 7 60°F 1023 hPa (-1.0)51°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC4 mi40 minSSW 510.00 miFair55°F39°F56%1022.3 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC19 mi40 minSSW 710.00 miFair55°F39°F55%1022 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE6S4S8
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1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:43 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:06 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.42.21.71.20.60.2-0.1-00.30.81.41.821.91.61.10.60.2-0-00.30.81.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.