Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Park, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 1:50 AM EST (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:50AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1214 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 25 to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog.
Tue..SW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Park, NC
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location: 35.54, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 130623
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
123 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will cross the area tonight. A cold front
will then move through late Tuesday followed by high pressure
Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will affect the area
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will ridge into the region
this weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1230 am Tuesday... Precipitation has been increasing in
coverage over the past couple of hours, especially near the
coast, as strengthening surface low pressure moves along the
south carolina coast. Convection has flared up off the south
carolina coast and some concern with increasing shear (se
surface winds and 850 mb winds of 50+ knots) and forecast cape
values approaching 1000 j kg over the next few hours, that a
severe weather threat is possible with some isolated tornadoes,
especially near the coast, but extending inland to perhaps the
highway 17 corridor.

Another concern will be for the potential for heavy rainfall
with 1-2 inches, locally up to 3 inches possible. This could
produce some minor flooding of low-lying areas. With strong
low-level warm air advection, temperatures will likely remain in
the 60s over most of the CWA overnight with lower 70s near the
coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
As of 300 pm Monday... The low pressure system will lift ne
tomorrow, while the cold front moves through late morning.

Models continue to show rain during the morning, and then
redeveloping again as the secondary cold front pushes through.

Temperatures will be warm in the morning with highs in the low
60s inland to the low 70s along the coast, then gradually
decreasing during the day.

Long term tonight through Monday
As of 110 am tues... Active weather will continue into the
second half of the week. Then, drier and cooler air will move in
Friday and remain into the weekend.

Wednesday... High pressure will build into the area behind the
front, resulting in a mainly dry and cool day Wednesday. Gusty
winds (especially for coastal areas) will ensue Wednesday
afternoon evening as low pressure developing across the deep
south works with high pressure across the northeast to tighten
the gradient locally.

Thursday... The aforementioned low will travel up the east coast
Thursday, brining another soggy and windy day. Models have come
into better agreement on an inland track up the i-95 corridor,
which would put part of eastern nc in the warm sector once
again. Forecast guidance is showing another 1-3 inches of rain
is possible which could lead to some minor flooding problems
given the amount of recent rainfall. Have also raised pops to
categorical for most of Thursday. Severe weather is also
possible as scattered thunderstorms could track along the coast
as the low pressure system deepens as it moves up the east
coast. Temperatures will be very warm once the area is in the
warm sector will reach the mid 60s inland and the upper 60s to
around 70 near the coast.

Friday through Monday... As low pressure departs the area, it
will drag a cold front off the coast Friday morning, with cooler
high pressure building in behind it. High pressure will
continue to ridge into the area through this weekend and into
Monday, however cooler conditions are expected. High temps
Friday will reach the low to upper 60s, with mostly 50s likely
for the weekend. Lows will dip into the 30s inland, but look to
remain above freezing, while remaining in the low to mid 40s
along the coast.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through 06z Wednesday ...

as of 1235 am Tuesday... As precipitation increases across
eastern nc over the next few hours, ceilings should lower with
widespread ifr conditions developing. These conditions should
continue through the day. Convective threat with strong winds
during the early morning hours should evolve to a more showery
scenario by mid-morning. Strong low-level shear is likely
through the early morning hours with gusty SE winds at the
surface and 850 mb winds at 50+ knots. Ceilings may briefly lift
to MVFR during the afternoon, but then fall again after dark per
guidance.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 120 am tues...VFR conditions will return Wednesday, but
be short-lived as ifr conditions are likely as low pressure
impacts the area late Wednesday through Thursday night.VFR
conditions return Friday.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 1240 am Tuesday... No major changes to the marine forecast.

Winds will ramp up over the next several hours as surface low
strengthens along the sc coast. Winds are already gusting to 33
knots at diamond buoy and 25 knots off of ocracoke. Winds peak
early this morning. Gale warnings remain in effect for the
coastal waters and pamlico sound, with seas building to as high
as 10+ feet. SCA continues for the remaining waters with
frequent gusts above 25 knots likely. Winds will slowly diminish
through the day Tuesday, as seas will response as well, but
remain above 6 ft.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 120 am tues... Winds and seas will increase Wednesday
ahead of an approaching low and remain elevated, with very
dangerous boat conditions expected as low pressure passes near
the waters through at least Thursday night. Gale force winds are
expected across the coastal waters and possibly the sounds and
will be SE E 25-30 kts with gusts 30-40 kts, and seas will build
to 6-12 ft in response. Conditions should begin to improve
Friday, but seas look to remain elevated through Saturday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 am est this morning for amz130-
131-136-137.

Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz135-150-152-
154-156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Bm
long term... Sgk cb
aviation... Ctc cqd sgk
marine... Ctc cqd sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 60 mi32 min SSE 15 G 17 70°F 64°F1017 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 69 mi50 min SSE 21 G 23 1017.2 hPa (-3.3)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 74 mi32 min SSE 19 G 24 70°F 63°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC2 mi70 minSE 510.00 miLight Rain63°F60°F93%1016.6 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC20 mi65 minSSE 37.00 miRain61°F59°F94%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4NE4N3N4NE3NE4NE4E8NE5NE9NE5N4CalmNE5E6NE7E7E7N3E6E5E4SE7
1 day agoN3N5N6N6N7N5N6N8NE5NE6NW5NE4NE6N3N4NE3NE3CalmCalmNE4NE3CalmCalmN3
2 days agoNW4NW4NW5NW8NW9
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NW9NW8NW5N5CalmN4N3N3N3CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:21 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:27 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:19 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.81.61.20.90.60.40.50.71.11.622.22.221.71.30.90.60.50.50.71.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.