Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Park, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 25, 2019 11:16 PM EDT (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:16AMMoonset 10:51AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1010 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Park, NC
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location: 35.54, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 260219
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1019 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to build off the east coast tonight,
and settle off the southeast coast tomorrow. Another backdoor
front will move into the region Monday, but then will quickly
retreat north Tuesday, with very hot temperatures expected
across the region through at least the middle of next week. A
cold front is expected to move into the area Friday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 10 pm sat... No significant changes to the forecast with
the late evening update. Shower and thunderstorm activity is
approaching the i-85 corridor and remains on track to threaten
our area after midnight. Additionally, stratus coverage is
increasing across the CAPE fear region, with the expectation
that this stratus field will being to build across duplin and
onslow counties within the next hour or two.

Previous discussion... A subtle shortwave aloft will cross
virginia and northeastern north carolina this evening and
overnight, prompting scattered showers and possible a couple of
thunderstorms to develop in the roanoke river basin before
working into the area from the northeast overnight. Hi-res
guidance is resolving the shower storm activity progressing
south across the area mainly east of us hwy 17 while weakening
through about 10z. However, very dry air in the mid to upper
levels apparent in the 00z kmhx sounding will be difficult to
overcome, and pops remain capped around 30% or less. Otherwise
it will be a fairly quiet night with lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As of 210 pm sat... High pressure offshore will drift south of nc
tomorrow, leading to a return of SW flow. Low level thicknesses
will increase again, and blazing hot conditions are expected
away from the immediate coast. Expect close to record high
temps, with highs in the upper 90s inland, low to mid 90s east
of us 17, and mid to upper 80s along the coast. It will be
mostly dry except for a few seabreeze showers thunderstorms that
may develop across to the west of the pamlico sound in the
afternoon hours.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 230 pm Saturday... A subtropical surface ridge coupled
with an abnormally strong late spring upper level ridge will
continue to produce hot and mostly dry weather for much of the
next week. Well above normal temperatures well into the 90s
inland are expected Monday through at least Thursday. The axis
of heat peaks mid week where several inland locations could
reach 100 degrees or a little higher. Beaches will cont to be a
bit cooler with winds off ocean and sounds but shld be well into
the 80s with some spots reaching AOA 90. Overnight lows will
likewise be quite warm... Mostly in 70s. As the upr ridge breaks
down and a cold front approaches late week temps will cool a
bit but still likely reach lower 90s inland.

Mdls show series of weak impulses and convective complexes
passing mainly N of region thru mid week. Some of these may clip
nrn tier at times but overall confidence is low so will cont
with dry fcst. As upr ridge weakens and front approaches late
week will have a little better chc of shra tsra Fri into sat
with 20 30 pops.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday afternoon ...

as of 7 pm sat...VFR conditions persist through the evening.

Overnight, low level flow shifts more southerly as a subtle
shortwave aloft approaches the area. Hi-res guidance suggests
that this will prompt a MVFR stratus deck to build across the
area from the south, with highest confidence MVFR ceilings
impacting koaj and kewn through the early morning hours. There
is more uncertainty around the MVFR ceilings at kiso and kpgv,
but have opted to prevail MVFR at both locations based on
probabilistic guidance.VFR ceilings will emerge around by
sunrise as the influence of the shortwave shifts away from the
area.

Long term Sunday night through Thu ...

as of 230 pm sat...VFR conditions are likely throughout the
extended period. The chances of showers tstms will be very slim
with upr rdg in control. Threat for any late night fog also low
as soil moisture conts to decrease given prolonged hot spell.

Marine
Short term through tomorrow ...

as of 10 pm sat... Southerly winds around 10-15 kts prevail
overnight, and then continue to turn to the SW tomorrow, with
some gusts to 20 kts possible. Seas are expected to be 2-3 ft
through most of tonight, and then build slightly to 3-4 ft
tomorrow with some 5 footers possible over the outer central
waters.

Long term Sunday night through Thu ...

as of 230 pm Saturday... Sw winds of 10 to 20 knots expected Sunday
night as a weak front approaches from the northwest. This front
will get far enough south to produce a wind shift to NE e
Monday over the central and northern tier. The front will lift
back N on Tuesday with winds becoming ssw 10 to 20 kts that will
cont thru wed. As another front begins to approach Thu SW winds
will increase to 15 to 25 kts.

Seas will be mainly 2 to 4 feet thru the period, some 5 foot
seas poss outer wtrs Sun night and early mon. Better chc of 5
foot seas Thu as winds approach SCA lvls.

Climate
Record or near record warmth is expected for much of next week.

Record high temps for 5 26 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 100 1953 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 88 1962 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1927 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1953 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 2004 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 27 (Monday)
location temp year
new bern 96 1989 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 86 2004 (khse asos)
greenville 96 1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1989 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 28 (Tuesday)
location temp year
new bern 93 2014 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 87 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 97 1916 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 2004 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 95 1967 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 29 (Wednesday)
location temp year
new bern 95 1982 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 91 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 95 1918 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 92 1991 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 1991 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 1967 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sgk cb
short term... Sgk
long term... Rf ctc
aviation... Rf cb
marine... Rf cb
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 60 mi29 min S 11 G 14 77°F 79°F1021.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 69 mi77 min SSE 12 G 14 76°F 1021.1 hPa (+0.6)69°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 74 mi29 min S 7 G 11 76°F 75°F1021.5 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC2 mi37 minS 610.00 miFair75°F67°F77%1020.7 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC20 mi27 minS 910.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE4S5S5S4CalmS5SE8SE10SE10
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1 day agoSW5SW6SW7SW7SW7SW9SW5SW7SW8SW9W10W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:03 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:37 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:57 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.921.91.71.410.60.40.40.50.81.21.61.81.81.71.41.10.80.50.40.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.