Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
The Village, OK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 6:50PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:29 PM CDT (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:24AMMoonset 6:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Village, OK
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location: 35.57, -97.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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Fxus64 koun 192335
afdoun
area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
635 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Updated aviation discussion...

Aviation
Warm moist advection will bring a risk of low stratus toward
sunrise across southwest oklahoma and spreading northeast into
central and northern oklahoma during the morning. MVFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the day with some clearing
possible toward the end of the TAF period at southwest oklahoma
and western north texas airports. Southerly winds will be a
little stronger tomorrow than previous days as trough out west
approaches. The probability of precipitation impacting the area is
low through the TAF period.

Prev discussion issued 405 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017
discussion...

primary forecast issue is the risk for severe thunderstorms on
Saturday.

For late tonight into tomorrow, a shortwave that is currently
located across the texas new mexico border is expected to lift
northeastward into western north texas and oklahoma. There will be
a low chance of showers storms from wave, but severe weather is
not expected. Isentropic ascent warm advection tomorrow night into
Saturday will result in a continued low chance of showers storms.

By Saturday afternoon, a mid upper-level trough will eject into
the plains. Along the southern periphery of trough, a secondary
mid-level jet vorticity maxima will rotate around the base of the
shortwave trough. In response to an embedded jet streak, a
surface low may develop across southwest oklahoma and adjacent
parts of north texas.

The attendant cold front will enter northwest oklahoma Saturday
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
front late afternoon through the evening. The environment will be
more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms with effective bulk
shear >50 knots and MLCAPE >2000 j kg. Any discrete thunderstorms
could become superceullar with the given parameter space. If a
surface low develops, localized backing of surface winds would
increase the low-level shear and the attendant tornado threat.

Thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale into a quasi-linear
convective system due to strong forcing along the cold front.

The greatest uncertainty is the timing speed of the cold front.

The 19 12z NAM and 3 km NAM are much faster with the cold front
than the 19 12z gfs. Even the ECMWF is slightly faster than the
gfs. The faster solution would likely lead toward thunderstorms
becoming undercut by the cold front, which would mitigate the
spatiotemporal extent of any higher end severe tornado risk;
however, damaging wind gusts will be still be a hazard along the
line of thunderstorms. For now, will trend the forecast toward the
faster solution based on the surface pressure bulge.

In the front's wake, cooler and drier air will advect into the
region for Sunday. Sunday will be much cooler with highs in the
mid-60fs to low 70fs.

A brief warm-up is expected Monday afternoon before another cold
front passes by late Monday. A dry frontal passage is expected due
to limited moisture. Cooler weather with highs in the 60fs are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday behind this front. Some locations
may have lows in the 30fs by Wednesday morning.

Mahale

Preliminary point temps pops
Oklahoma city ok 61 76 67 77 0 20 20 50
hobart ok 62 76 65 81 10 20 20 40
wichita falls tx 62 78 68 83 10 20 10 50
gage ok 61 73 63 75 0 20 20 20
ponca city ok 58 77 68 77 0 20 20 50
durant ok 58 78 67 80 0 20 20 30

Oun watches warnings advisories
Ok... None.

Tx... None.

12 03


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oklahoma City, Wiley Post Airport, OK3 mi37 minSSE 1110.00 miFair69°F51°F53%1017.5 hPa
Oklahoma City, Will Rogers World Airport, OK11 mi38 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F51°F67%1017.8 hPa
Tinker Air Force Base, OK15 mi34 minSSE 610.00 miFair65°F51°F60%1018.6 hPa
Guthrie, Guthrie Municipal Airport, OK22 mi37 minSSE 610.00 miFair63°F54°F73%1018 hPa
Norman / Max Westheimer, OK23 mi35 minSE 810.00 miFair64°F51°F64%1019 hPa
El Reno, El Reno Regional Airport, OK23 mi35 minSSE 1010.00 miFair60°F51°F74%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from PWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S14S14S13S13S12S11S11S11S10S12S10S15
G21
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G22
S13S13SE12SE10SE10SE9SE12S12S11
1 day agoS15S12S12S14S14S12S15S15S16
G22
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G23
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2 days agoSW3S4S5S7S11S10S7S8S9S10S12S15S16
G21
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G22
S16SW12S13S14
G19
S15S13S8S9S13S14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Norman, OK (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Oklahoma City, OK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.