Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 8:14 PM   Moonset 5:56 AM

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FXUS64 KOUN 241139 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 639 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Scattered showers (and eventually thunderstorms) will continue to develop this morning as isentropic ascent/warm advection increases north of the stalled front (located near the Red River).
Any convection that develops should move to the east-southeast.
The most intense cores may produce hail. Abundant cloud cover and light easterly winds will result in a cooler day for locations north of the front (upper 60s to mid 70s deg F). South of the front, western north Texas will see warmer conditions (upper 70s to low 80s deg F).

By late afternoon into the early evening, isolated thunderstorms may develop across the Texas panhandle (near Lubbock). If thunderstorms develop, they may move into western north Texas this evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Late tonight, the front will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front as winds veer back to the south. Increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection in tandem with a strengthening low- level jet will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma.
Elevated instability will be sufficient for hail with the most intense cores.

Mahale

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Thursday into Thursday Evening: Elevated thunderstorms may persist across the north central Oklahoma throughout much of the day with continued isentropic ascent/warm air advection. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave trough will lift into the Plains with increasing synoptic-scale ascent. At the surface, a dryline will sharpen across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles as a low deepens across eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Even given these synoptic-scale features that would be favorable for convection, there remains uncertainty on the amount of daytime/early evening convection that will develop along the dryline. Forecast soundings indicate a subtle capping inversion at ~800 mb, which may partially explain why several parameterized and convective- allowing models have no convective initiation during this period (some of the CAMs may also be overmixing dewpoints east of the dryline). Nevertheless, there remains the potential for at least isolated supercell development given the synoptic-scale pattern (e.g., a couple HRRR members do have convective initiation). If storms develop, they would move eastward into western Oklahoma during the evening with an environment favorable for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

Thursday Night/Friday Morning: Overnight, thunderstorms become more likely as the trough lifts across the area. Upscale growth into line segments may occur given the large-scale ascent in tandem with the eastward acceleration of the dryline/Pacific front. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, including with any mesovortices. In addition, given the large amount of low- level shear due to a 50 knot low-level jet (e.g., ~35 to 40 knots of 0 to 1 km shear), tornadoes are possible within any QLCS structures or embedded supercells. These thunderstorms will sweep across the area from west to east through Friday morning.

Friday Afternoon: As the trough lifts toward the Midwest, the trailing dryline will stall, likely near or east of I-35. While synoptic-scale ascent will be lacking (perhaps even synoptic-scale subsidence in the wake of the exiting trough), the environment ahead of the dryline will have little or no cap present by afternoon. Therefore, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible if there is enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. These storms would likely be supercells with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

To the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will likely develop across northwest into west central Oklahoma.
Southwest winds at 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are expected. This will be combined with relative humidity values around 15%.

Saturday: Saturday still has the potential for a significant severe weather event across the entire area as a negatively-tilted trough lifts into the Southern Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture will advect back to the northwest. The dryline will sharpen near or just east of the Oklahoma/Texas state line as a surface low deepens in response to the approaching trough.

The greatest uncertainties that will affect the magnitude of the severe risk continue to be the timing of the shortwave trough and any early convection. There is a signal among deterministic model and ensemble members that early convection may occur, which would likely temper the potential severity of the event (i.e., prevent the worst case scenario). Both the 24/00Z GFS and ECMWF suggest this might be due to warm air advection at around 700 mb. If the morning convection does not occur and the trough is timed with peak heating, a high-end severe weather event is likely Saturday afternoon and evening. Even if this worst case scenario does not occur, there will still be the risk of severe weather with the risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes in highly sheared, moist environment (significant severe weather can occur on cloudy days if the ingredients are present and the storm mode is favorable). Flooding may also be a risk by Saturday with the potential for multiple rounds of storms.

Sunday: Strong to severe thunderstorms may persist across southeast Oklahoma on Sunday. A slightly less humid and cooler air mass is expected elsewhere.

Monday and Tuesday: There will be a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma with the low- level moisture/remnant front in close proximity.

Mahale

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

There are a few showers and thunderstorms this morning, and some if this is likely virga with precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground. Away from the showers and storms, conditions are generally VFR at the moment, but lower clouds and MVFR ceilings will be increasing. This first area of showers/storms will move east and eventually out of the area, but more showers and storms will develop this evening as well. Low clouds will also become more widespread this evening and overnight with widespread MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 70 61 76 64 / 50 70 60 90 Hobart OK 70 62 79 60 / 30 50 40 80 Wichita Falls TX 78 67 80 65 / 20 30 20 90 Gage OK 67 54 82 54 / 40 40 50 50 Ponca City OK 71 57 72 62 / 40 80 90 90 Durant OK 78 66 79 66 / 40 30 20 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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