Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
The Village, OK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:47PM Friday March 24, 2017 1:01 AM CDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:20AMMoonset 3:22PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Village, OK
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location: 35.57, -97.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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Fxus64 koun 240339
afdoun
area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
1039 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Discussion
Aviation
Strong south winds will persist overnight and become southwest
behind a dryline during the day Friday. A front will move into
northwestern oklahoma Friday afternoon and bring strong winds to
western oklahoma through Friday evening. A short period of MVFR
ceilings may move into central oklahoma from the south early
Friday before the dryline; otherwise, mostlyVFR conditions are
expected.

Prev discussion /issued 948 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
update...

decreased precipitation chances overnight.

Discussion...

a line of thunderstorms continues to push eastward across western
kansas and the panhandles this evening. Surface analysis reveals
the surface front has about caught the dryline. Ahead of the
combo, south winds remain strong, gusting over 30 kts, approaching
40, across most of western and central oklahoma. Surface dew
points are rather unimpressive ahead of the line of storms, and
surface based instability will continue to trend downward. Expect
thunderstorms to weaken as they push eastward into western
oklahoma, with scattered showers and thunderstorms holding on
through the overnight, as the front pushes east. In response,
backed off on precipitation chances quite a bit overnight, with
the best chances for isolated to scattered development across
southern oklahoma and northern texas.

Kurtz
prev discussion... /issued 710 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion...

aviation...

strong south winds will continue tonight and become southwest
tomorrow. A front will shift wind to northwest in the afternoon in
northwest oklahoma.VFR conditions are expected outside of a small
chance for showers/thunderstorms in northwest oklahoma before
sunrise Friday.

Prev discussion... /issued 322 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion...

summary:
an active weather pattern will continue into next week with
several weather hazards possible. Short term concerns are ongoing
windy conditions and fire weather concerns today, followed by
thunderstorms tonight. Windy and dry conditions will again lead to
fire weather concerns tomorrow afternoon and thunderstorms could
redevelop across eastern portions of the area by late morning.

Other active periods include Sunday (potential for severe
thunderstorms) and the middle of next week when rain and
thunderstorm chances increase again.

Meteorological analysis:
latest water vapor channel imagery shows a deepening trough over
utah moving east toward our area. In response, significant lee
side surface pressure falls are occurring today causing strong
winds across our area. Latest oklahoma mesonet observations show
several locations in western oklahoma have gusted to around 40 mph
or slightly higher.

Cooling/ascent from approaching trough/closed low atop a moist
boundary layer should yield at least weak instability across the
panhandles this afternoon. Deep mixing/drying of the shallow low
level moist layer should temper significant destabilization.

Nevertheless, thunderstorms will likely develop and move east
reaching western oklahoma later in the evening in a weakly unstable
(albeit decreasing) environment. A decrease in intensity and
coverage is expected as the storms move into northwest oklahoma by
mid-late evening with the severe threat quickly decreasing. A
continued decrease in coverage will occur throughout the night.

This system is expected to evolve into an intense closed low
overnight with 20+ dm 6 hour 500 hpa height falls across southwest
kansas before the system begins to fill slowly during the day. There
is some uncertainty on the exact track of the surface low. GFS and
its ensembles as well as the ECMWF track the low east-southeastward
across northern oklahoma during the day, while NAM and SREF keep it
slightly further north. This has some implications for the wind
forecast. Current indications are that sustained winds of 25 to 35
mph will be common from late morning into the afternoon, with even
higher sustained speeds possible briefly over portions of western
north texas. Deep mixing and momentum transfer seen in forecast
soundings could result in wind gusts to around 50 or slightly
higher, especially in the southwest portion of the area. A wind
advisory will likely be needed for this area and areas further
northeast including okc tomorrow as gusts to around or just above
40 mph seem probable.

The next shortwave trough will approach Sunday. Low level moisture
will return but probably not until late in the day contributing
to only weak instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless deep
layer shear will be supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Given the trends in low level moisture return, we have lowered
precipitation probabilities during the day. Convection may become
more numerous during the night warm/moist advection continues and
forcing from the passing wave occurs.

Gfs and its ensembles remain somewhat slower with the next closed
low compared to the ecmwf. This would affect our area by mid-week
and have made little changes to the precipitation probabilities
during this time frame.

Brb
fire weather...

elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are ongoing
this afternoon with rh values ranging from around 30 to 45 percent
across the area precluding a more significant fire weather
concern. Nevertheless, southerly winds of at least 20 mph across
much of the area and as high as 30 mph in western oklahoma have
been observed. Gusts approaching or exceeding 45 mph have also
been seen over western oklahoma. Rh values should recover to
around or above 70 percent later tonight across all but western
north texas, where rh values may not rise about 60 to 65 percent.

Tomorrow brings greater concern for fire weather. Critical
conditions seem quite possible, and a fire weather watch is in
effect. The watch has been expanded to encompass a greater portion
of central oklahoma. A low level thermal ridge will be oriented
from near or just east of stillwater south-southwestward into
south- central oklahoma, and the most fire effective conditions
may be just on the windward side of thermal ridge. This is not the
classic setup with a strong mid-level speed MAX crossing the
thermal ridge so this leaves some this should temper winds speeds and
limiting the fire potential somewhat. However, wind speeds will be
high enough to meet critical thresholds and deep mixing behind a
progressive dryline will support rh values as low as around 15
percent.

Visually, fuels are increasing in greenness but erc-g values
remain on the high end of average and are still supportive of fire
growth and spread.

Brb

Preliminary point temps/pops
Oklahoma city ok 60 79 48 68 / 20 10 10 0
hobart ok 55 77 44 71 / 30 0 0 0
wichita falls tx 59 83 47 73 / 30 10 0 0
gage ok 51 69 39 69 / 50 20 10 0
ponca city ok 62 79 48 65 / 20 20 30 0
durant ok 61 79 51 72 / 30 70 10 0

Oun watches/warnings/advisories
Ok... Fire weather watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for okz007-008-012-013-017>020-022>047-050-051.

Wind advisory until midnight cdt tonight for okz004>019-021>025-
027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

Wind advisory from 10 am to 7 pm cdt Friday for okz021>023-027-
033>039-044-045.

Tx... Fire weather watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for txz083>090.

Wind advisory until midnight cdt tonight for txz083>090.

Wind advisory from 10 am to 7 pm cdt Friday for txz083>090.

04/09/09


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oklahoma City, Wiley Post Airport, OK3 mi69 minS 27 G 3910.00 miFair and Windy73°F44°F35%1004.6 hPa
Oklahoma City, Will Rogers World Airport, OK11 mi70 minS 28 G 4210.00 miPartly Cloudy and Windy72°F42°F34%1004.9 hPa
Clarence E Page Municipal Airport, OK13 mi1.8 hrsS 35 G 5110.00 miFair and Windy72°F44°F38%1005.8 hPa
Tinker Air Force Base, OK15 mi64 minSSE 28 G 3810.00 miFair and Windy72°F42°F35%1006 hPa
Guthrie, Guthrie Municipal Airport, OK22 mi69 minS 21 G 3510.00 miFair and Breezy73°F45°F37%1005.5 hPa
Norman / Max Westheimer, OK23 mi67 minSSE 26 G 4110.00 miFair and Windy72°F44°F38%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from PWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE17
G25
S22
G26
S19
G26
S17
G26
S21
G27
S18
G26
S18
G25
S20
G27
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G23
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G30
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G33
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G36
S23
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G40
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S24
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G34
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G35
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G37
S27
G39
S24
G37
1 day agoNE14NE11N9NE10NE10NE11E15NE14NE14NE10E12
G16
SE7SE8--E10
G15
SE11
G16
SE12SE11SE11SE11SE16
G21
SE15
G20
SE16
G22
SE18
G22
2 days agoS11S7S9S12S10S9NW4CalmS5S7W9NW12N7N9N7N10
G19
N14N15
G20
NE15NE14NE20
G26
NE13
G20
NE17NE16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Norman, OK (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Oklahoma City, OK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.