Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Simeon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 12:49 AM PST (08:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:33PMMoonset 11:09PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ565 Point Pinos To Point Piedras Blancas To 10 Nm- 923 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy smoke through the night. Haze after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 3 ft at 15 seconds. Haze and patchy smoke.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds and S 3 ft at 14 seconds. Haze and patchy smoke.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds and S 3 ft at 14 seconds. Haze and patchy smoke in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft...becoming 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft.
PZZ500 923 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A medium upper level high pressure system will return Wednesday, but steadily weaken through late week and weekend. Light mixed swell will continue through mid-week before a northwest swell arrives. A chilly and showery weather pattern change develops by the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Simeon, CA
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location: 35.65, -121.79     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 140631
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1031 pm pst Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis Smoke over the region will continue to result in poor
air quality through the work week with dry conditions and light
offshore winds. Seasonably mild, dry conditions will then persist
through the upcoming weekend. A pattern change will potentially
bring rainfall to the region around thanksgiving.

Discussion As of 10:02 pm pst Tuesday... Forecast update
earlier this evening to increase the amount of mid and high level
clouds the next 24-36 hours. The main cloud band is shifting
southward but still expecting some high clouds on weds. Normally
not a big deal but it acts to inhibit some of the smoke dispersion
and this time of year even a thin cloud deck can limit daytime
heating. Forecasts were also updated to account for ongoing haze
and smoke conditions across the region. The high clouds limit the
satellite detection of heat signatures but on-site reports
indicate continued active burning on the camp fire. In addition
the smoldering phase of the fire can actually produce more near
surface smoke while wind profiles still bring smoke towards the
bay area the next few days. Outside of air quality expect
continued dry and seasonably mild weather. Our fuels remain
critically dry with only the absence of wind keeping us out of red
flag conditions as single and teen humidity values will continue
for another day or two.

The ridge may flatten over the weekend with some light onshore
flow developing ahead of an incoming upper trough that will head
towards socal and act to weaken the ridge. Hopefully by the
weekend some onshore flow and continued fire-fighting efforts will
allow for improved air quality.

All the focus then turns to the long range. High confidence for
dry weather through at least next Monday and likely into Tuesday.

00z GFS has maintained trend of bringing a long wave trough and
associated shortwaves through the region starting around next weds
and continuing through the thanksgiving holiday. Still way too far
out to get overly confident but ensemble details are trending the
right direction with the ECMWF similarly bullish. Gem model is
being contrarian for the time being. Will await the incoming 00z
ecmwf and update long range forecasts accordingly overnight.

Prev discussion As of 02:00 pm pst Tuesday... Synoptic pattern
features an amplified upper level ridge overhead with a closed
low over the southern plains and a broad trough in the eastern
pacific. A weak shortwave trough on the eastern side of this broad
trough is advecting high clouds overhead. These clouds have kept
temperatures cooler this afternoon areawide. Highs so far have
only been in the low to mid 60s in the bay area and points
northward, while santa cruz southward has seen temperatures in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. The difference in temperature between the
northern and southern half of the CWA is caused primarily by
smoke coverage. The bay area is still socked in by smoke and poor
air quality, with visibilities around 2 1 2 miles this afternoon
is several locations such as santa rosa, sfo, and oakland.

Meanwhile, the southern half of the CWA has been spared the worst
of the air quality issues. Expect smoke to persist across the bay
area through this week as winds remain weak, limiting mixing.

Surface winds will turn onshore Wednesday afternoon along the
coast, but this may not offer much relief as a large area of smoke
extends several hundred miles off the coast.

An upper level ridge and a weak surface pressure gradient will
keep winds light through the rest of the week. Winds will be
generally 10 mph or less with gusts below 15 mph. Relative
humidity remains low in the higher terrain, with relative humidity
mainly in the 10-30 percent range above 1000 feet. Poor overnight
humidity recoveries are expected through the rest of the week.

Due to the dry air and very dry fuels, near critical fire weather
conditions will continue. An increasing onshore component in the
surface flow will allow humidity to gradually increase along the
coast. Highs this week will be seasonably warm with 60s near the
coast and low to mid 70s inland. A limiting factor, but less
certain, will be aerial smoke coverage, with more smoke reducing
daytime heating potential. Lows will not be quite as cold as
recent nights with the increase in moisture in the valleys.

Looking ahead to next week, the advertised pattern change remains
likely but details are still far from certain. Models are at least
in agreement that a low will move to our south on Monday and
Tuesday. This does not look to bring any precipitation, but it
opens the door for a broad trough to potentially drop far enough
south to bring rain to our area as it moves eastward from the
pacific. Models are not consistent run to run on the timing or
strength of the trough and precipitation, but both the GFS and
euro show precip sometime in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe
next week. As always with forecasts this far in advance, details
are likely to change. Bottom line is that a pattern change is
likely next week, and the potential for precipitation around
thanksgiving is increasing.

Aviation As of 10:31 pm pst Tuesday... Ongoing wildfire smoke
is obscuring horizontal and slant range visibilities to MVFR-ifr
in a stagnant weather pattern. Mid and high clouds are streaming
in from the west with a weakly amplified, but dry 500 mb trough,
and weakly divergent jet stream winds becoming replaced by 500 mb
ridging Wednesday that slowly weakens through late week.

Vicinity of ksfo... MVFR in smoke. Poor to very poor slant range
visibility. Light winds.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR-MVFR. Varying amounts of smoke.

Poor slant range visibility.

Marine As of 9:42 pm pst Tuesday... A medium upper level high
pressure system will return Wednesday, but steadily weaken through
late week and weekend. Light mixed swell will continue through
mid-week before a northwest swell arrives. A chilly and showery
weather pattern change develops by the middle of next week.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt None.

Public forecast: rww
aviation marine: canepa
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 6 mi60 min 60°F 60°F3 ft1026.2 hPa (-0.6)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 51 mi50 min 62°F3 ft
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 58 mi23 min 66°F2 ft

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Paso Robles Municipal Airport, CA62 mi57 minENE 410.00 miFair44°F12°F27%1027.5 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3SE4CalmCalmS3CalmW3CalmCalmNW3N43E11E8E8----NW5SE4CalmNE3NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmS3E3S4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S5--SE8SE3CalmE3W3E5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW33NW4E7E5E4E5E9E6E5S4S4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for San Simeon, California
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San Simeon
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Wed -- 05:06 AM PST     3.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:53 AM PST     3.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:03 PM PST     4.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM PST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:06 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.32.93.33.53.63.63.53.43.43.43.63.83.943.93.73.22.621.410.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
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Wed -- 05:06 AM PST     3.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:52 AM PST     3.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:03 PM PST     3.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:08 PM PST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.32.83.23.43.53.53.43.33.23.33.53.63.83.93.83.63.12.61.91.410.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.