Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Engelhard, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 24, 2018 10:05 AM EDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:24PMMoonset 2:13AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 737 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms, then a chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Engelhard, NC
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location: 35.65, -76.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241147
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
747 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move through the area early this morning
followed by high pressure building in from the north today and
tonight. The high will move offshore Friday with a bermuda high
pattern returning for the weekend. Tropical moisture will begin
streaming through the region especially for the latter part of
memorial day weekend through mid week next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 730 am Thursday... The front has pushed south of highway
70s but remains north of jacksonville and will continue to push
south of the area this morning. Most of the shower activity has
pushed just south of the area but a lingering isolated showers
continue to occasionally pop up in onslow county. Expect
generally dry conditions across much of the area today as high
pressure builds in from the northwest, although could see a few
showers or thunderstorms continuing to develop across far
southern sections, and mainly along the sea breeze this
afternoon. Highs today expected in the mid 80s inland to around
80 coast.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am Thursday... Dry conditions expected tonight with
mainly clear skies as high pressure ridges in from the north
while migrating off the mid-atlantic coast. Lows expected to
drop into the lower 60 inland to mid 60s closer to the coast.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 410 am thu... The first part of memorial day weekend
should be quite pleasant, then increasing chances for showers by
the tail end of the holiday weekend.

Friday... Return south to southeasterly flow will ensue as
sprawling high pres moves off the coast. Dry conditions expected
with afternoon temps warming into the mid 80s interior to near
80 coast for highs. Only a very small chance for an iso shower
or storm mainly for SW counties as some deeper moisture will be
present here. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies expected. Conditions
cont dry and mild Fri night with lows around 70 most areas.

Saturday... Continuing moistening and warming conditions
expected, and some indications there will be sct showers around
especially during the morning hours as some weak shortwave
energy swings through. By afternoon, more of a typical summer
time pattern with an iso or sct shower or storm for inland
locales and rising hts.

Sunday... Tricky fcst as some model differences at play. Warm and
humid conditions expected as southerly flow persists. However,
weak ridging will be in place between tropical system in the gom
and bermuda high offshore. The 24 00z GFS is faster with
bringing in surge of tropical moisture through E nc with
widespread covg as early as Sun afternoon, though ecm cmc slower
with ridging continuing through the day. Will blend more heavily
with the drier solns, and continue the inherited chc pops,
though raise them to around 40% inland, as ecm MOS pops
indicate.

Sunday night into Monday... Much better chances for
showers storms arrive this period as a piece of tropical
moisture impacts E nc, indirectly associated with the main
tropical system in the gom. Layer streamlines from the ecmwf
indicate deep moisture convergence over enc maximized late sun
night into mon, and will raise pops to 50-60%. Periods of heavy
rain are possible as mix ratios inc to +14 g kg and pwats AOA 2
inches.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Fcst becomes less certain this period,
as the area will still be under threat for showers and storms
indirectly associated with the tropical system over the deep
south. Will maintain higher chance pops but cap them at 50%, as
timing of potential shortwaves interacting with frontal boundary
in the area will dictate when precip moves through the region.

Nevertheless, it still looks like an unsettled period as very
warm and humid air mass will still be in place. Highs this
period generally in the mid 80s inland to near 80 coast. Lows
will be 70-75.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 730 am Thursday... The frontal boundary has pushed into far
southern rtes and will continue to push south this morning.

Areas of low clouds and fog have deloped across inland areas
early this morning and is expected to dissipate in the next
couple hours withVFR conditions returning through the rest of
the TAF period. Could see an isolated shower develop along
southern rtes this afternoon but generally expect dry conditions
through most of the region.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 410 am thu... MainlyVFR through Saturday. Some sct
showers or storms possible on Sat and sun, with much better
chances for showers Sun night into Mon as deep tropical moisture
arrives, and better chances for subVFR conditions developing.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 730 am Thursday... The front will push south of the waters
shortly after 12z with N NE winds around 5-15 kt this morning,
becoming NE E this afternoon, then E 10 kt or less tonight as
high pressure migrates off the mid- atlantic coast. Seas around
2-4 ft this morning will subside to 1-3 ft this afternoon and
tonight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 410 am thu... Expect E winds at 10-15 knots winds veer to
more SE S by Friday, then inc 15-20 kt on Sat in response to a
re- strengthening of high pressure offshore and increasing
land sea thermal gradient. Fetch of moderately strong southerly
winds increases on Sunday, and in response seas will build to 6+
feet ESP by Sunday night into Monday.

Equipment
As of 630 pm wed... Kmhx radar is down until further notice,
awaiting parts.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Tl
aviation... Sk tl
marine... Sk tl
equipment... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 27 mi54 min N 8.9 G 13 71°F 75°F1020.3 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi48 min NNE 8.9 G 12 75°F 75°F1020.1 hPa
44095 38 mi48 min 68°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi48 min NE 7 G 8 69°F 64°F1020.5 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi36 min 68°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi51 min 71°F2 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC26 mi71 minNE 1010.00 miFair74°F63°F69%1021 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9
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N9N4S4SW4W3CalmN3CalmCalmNW3N5N5NE7NE8NE8NE8
1 day agoW8W6W6W6SW8W8S9W5W5W6S10SW9SW13SW14SW12SW11SW14W10SW11W11SW11W11
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2 days agoNW4NW4N7N3E6E9E9E9E9E8SE7E6E5E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3W5

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
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Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.10.30.50.60.70.60.60.40.30.1000.10.20.40.60.70.70.70.60.40.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 AM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:23 PM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.50.70.80.90.80.70.50.30.1000.20.40.60.80.90.90.80.60.40.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.