Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 11:57 AM   Moonset 2:04 AM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 202 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A backdoor cold front will stall over area waters today before lifting back north tonight. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 161423 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1023 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front will stall over eastern North Carolina today before lifting back north tonight. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 10:15 AM Tues...Northern CWA observations are showing an impressive northeasterly surge behind the front, so winds were bumped up for the next few hours and a Marine Weather Statement was issued for all inland rivers and sounds until noon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion
As of 650 AM Tue
Eastern NC sits between split flow regime aloft as a mid- level trough and jet streak pushes across New England early this morning, while heights increase across the South as ridging increases ahead of a upper low gradually easing its way into the central Plains.
The surface backdoor cold front continues to edge south, just now passing past Duck and lifting north along the Ohio River Valley.

Primary focus for today will be convective potential. Where the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls will be difficult to pin down, but to its south temperatures will be able to climb well into the 80s, particularly across the southern coastal plain.
Combined with dew points in the low 60s, surface CAPEs will be able to climb to at least 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon, and up to 1500 J/kg in a worst- case scenario. The limiting factor will be lift with ridging and subsidence aloft, at least until tonight as a weak embedded s/w and associated PVA cross NC tonight. CAMs hint at isolated to scattered convection firing ahead of this feature across central NC and racing eastward into the evening hours. By then, however, available instability will quickly drop with a loss of heating and the stabilizing effects of local sea and sound breezes. The best chances for seeing any convection will be across the far inland coastal plain, but the risk is low (no higher than 20%). The risk of any severe thunderstorms is minimal - less than a 2% chance.

Behind the front, cooler northeasterly to easterly onshore flow will cap temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Along the Outer Banks, highs will settle in the upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM Tue...Any convection that does develop will quickly fall apart overnight, giving way to partly clear skies.
Upper level clouds will gradually increase as closed low and attendant surface cyclone over the Plains lift towards the Great Lakes and the stalled frontal boundary gives way to weak south to southwesterly flow. Temperatures remain mild with the mercury bottoming out around 60, upper 50s across northern OBX and the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 4 AM Tuesday... A fairly active pattern is on tap this week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this weekend.

Wednesday through Friday night...Upper ridging will crest over the area early Wednesday then will flatten as a weakening trough lifts NE'wards from the Central CONUS into the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley. Assoc. mid level shortwave will push across the area Wednesday night which may provide enough support to bring isolated showers across the region. Upper ridging will build back over the area Thursday with the axis cresting over the area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing but another dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated showers across the region.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs generally in the low to mid 80s each day with a few upper 80s possible on Thursday. Highs along the coast will be in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday with NNE onshore flow keeping temps in the 60s across the OBX on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night. Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area with sfc low pressure developing along the offshore front, which is progged to push off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. Saturday looks to be another warm day with temps well above normal inland with highs in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 655 AM Tue...High confidence in VFR conditions through most of the period. Backdoor cold front is now pushing towards MQI and will continue to drop southward through the day, eventually stalling along the Crystal Coast. Late this afternoon, sea and sound breezes become dominant and flow veers easterly. Some convection could potentially develop west of the terminals and encroach coastal plain terminals just before 00z, particularly OAJ and ISO, but stabilizing effect of sea and sound breezes will likely result in showers/storms quickly collapsing. Therefore, continued to keep VCTS out of the forecast.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the long term although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers late Wednesday night, late Friday/Friday night and again late Saturday as a series of mid level shortwaves traverse the area.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 335 AM Tuesday...Benign conditions in place over area waters this morning as a backdoor cold front across central VA gradually pushes southward, expected to cross the waters through today while Atlantic high pressure remains to the south. The front will usher in a wind shift from the currently observed south to southwesterly flow at around 10 kt to east-northeast to easterly at 10-15 kt. Early Wed morning, the boundary will lift back northward with winds veering southerly by daybreak Wednesday.

Winds will not be strong enough to build SCA-level seas, as wave heights will likely top out at around 3-5 feet across Raleigh Bay and the waters north of Cape Hatteras in the ENE to E flow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 445 AM Tuesday...An active pattern will prevail in the long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold fronts move into the waters. Strongest winds through the period are expected Wednesday through Thursday with SW winds around 10-20 kt. The front will push through Thursday night and stall offshore Friday with pressure gradients weakening. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old House Channel
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Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
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Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

Davis Slough
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Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
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Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

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