Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Engelhard, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:22PM Friday October 20, 2017 12:18 PM EDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1044 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Rest of today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne late. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Areas of fog in the morning.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely, then a chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Engelhard, NC
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location: 35.65, -76.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201449
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1049 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the
area mid to late week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1045 am Friday... Minor adjustments to hourly temp and dew
point trends, otherwise high and dry forecast on track.

Previous discussion
as of 615 am Friday... High pressure surface and aloft will
continue over the area through tonight producing mostly clear
skies and light winds. A thin veil of high cirrus clouds will
stream south across the area today around the upper ridge. Areas
of locally dense radiational fog early this morning should
dissipate around 13z (9 am) this morning. Highs today should be
similar to Thursday, around 80 degrees inland and the mid to
perhaps upper 70s beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
As of 300 am Friday... Clear skies light winds continue with
patchy fog expected to develop again inland after midnight.

Lows will range from the upper 40s inland to around 60 beaches.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 330 am fri...

Saturday through Sunday... High pressure centered over the area
will move off the coast this weekend with warming temps and
slight rises in humidity values. It will continue mainly sunny
through the weekend. High temps will be in the upper 70s to low
80s both Sat and sun. Morning lows will be in the 50-55 degree
range interior to low 60s beaches.

Monday through Tuesday... Next significant shortwave cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. 20 00z global
model suite has converged on timing strength of deep upper
trough and strong cold front progged to move through the region.

Thus have enough confidence now to advertise likely pops on
Tuesday, with chc pops Monday Monday night. Upr ridging still
overhead on Monday, though low level flow veers southeast and
strengthens, so some sct showers may advect onshore across the
fa as boundary layer moisture increases through the day.

On Monday night and especially Tuesday, vorticity advection
increases as models depict dampening shortwave trough pivoting
through the tn ohio valleys. This feature will spur cyclogenesis
west and north of the carolinas acting to increase dynamics and
strengthening southerly flow on 50+ kt llj. Dewpoints will rise
steadily through the 60s by Tuesday, and the combination of
significant wind shear and marginal instability could spell a
high shear low CAPE scenario for strong or severe storms. Too
early to depict storm mode, but will have to monitor as the
potential will be there for severe if enough instability
present.

Wednesday into Thursday... Rapid drying and cooling expected by
Wednesday as the front should move off the coast Tue night or
early wed. Have retained the small pops for Wednesday as the
deep upper low moves through E nc and could produce a few
showers. Dry NW flow on thur as upper low finally exits off the
mid atlantic coast. Temps will be much cooler for the mid week
period with Wed and Thu both in the 60s for highs. Temps fall
back into the 50s for Wed morning, then into the 40s inland and
low 50s beaches for thur morning.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 615 am Friday... Areas of locally dense fog at near the
taf sites will dissipate around 13z this morning withVFR
conditions and light winds expected through this evening. Could
see another round of fog and subVFR conditions develop after 6z
tonight under similar conditions as last tonight.

Long term Sat through Tue ...

as of 330 am fri... PredVFR conditions expected through the
weekend. However, there may be overnight early morning fog all
taf sites this weekend as low level moisture increases and skies
remain clear with calm winds each night. Sub-vfr possible in
scattered showers spreading in from the southwest Monday into
Monday night, with better chance of widespread MVFR ifr by
Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches the region. Winds
light through Monday, then gusty south winds expected on Tuesday
ahead of the front.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1045 am Friday... No changes with update.

Previous discussion
as of 615 am Friday... High pressure will continue over the
waters through tonight producing excellent marine conditions for
most mariners. Wind speeds will be mainly 10 kt or less through
the period with the flow W NW today becoming N NE tonight. Seas
are forecast to be 2 to 4 ft today and 2 to 3 ft tonight.

Long term Sat through Tue ...

as of 330 am fri... Northeast to east winds remain light in the
5-10 kt through the weekend. Seas will be 2-4 ft. Winds will
turn southeast on Monday as high pressure moves further
offshore. Winds will slowly increase from 5-10 kt in the morning
to 10-15 kt by late in the afternoon. Seas will be 2-4 ft north
of CAPE hatteras and 3-5 ft south. Winds increase drastically
Monday night and peak on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front
approaching from the west. Speeds will be 20-30 kt with some
gale force gusts possible on Tuesday. Seas increase to 7-11
feet on Tuesday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme jbm
short term... Jme
long term... Tl
aviation... Jme tl
marine... Jme jbm tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 27 mi126 min W 4.1 G 6 68°F 68°F1023.9 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi120 min NNW 7 G 8 68°F 69°F1024 hPa
44095 38 mi120 min 71°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi120 min WNW 5.1 G 7 66°F 69°F1023.5 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 42 mi138 min 69°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi133 min 70°F3 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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NE11
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G15
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N11
G21
N15
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N12
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N9
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N11
G16
NE12
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G16
NE8
G12
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NE12
G17
NE13
NE13
G17
NE11
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC26 mi33 minNW 510.00 miFair0°F0°F%1024 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5E5NE6E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW5NW6NW4
1 day agoNE11
G14
NE11NE12
G15
E8NE7NE7NE7E6E5NE3NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5NE7E6E5E6E6E7E9E8E7
2 days agoN13
G24
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G22
NE12
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NE10
G15
NE7NE8NE10NE9NE7NE7NE6NE7NE7NE8NE9NE7NE9NE8NE9E12E13E11NE13
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:45 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:56 PM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.20.100.10.30.50.70.80.90.80.60.50.30.100.10.20.40.60.70.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:14 AM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:31 PM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.100.10.20.50.811.11.110.70.50.30.10.10.10.30.60.8110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.