Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Engelhard, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:05 AM EDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 5:50PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 730 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Engelhard, NC
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location: 35.65, -76.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221130
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
730 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
A hot and humid airmass will remain over the region through
this weekend. The remnants of tropical cyclone cindy will pass
just to the north on Saturday. A cold front will move in Monday
night and become stationary until a stronger front pushes
through by mid week. High pressure will build in from the west
behind the front mid to late next week.

Near term through today
As of 730 am thu... Warm and humid conditions early this morning
across E nc with temps in the 70s. Light winds and t-td
depressions near 0 have led to some patchy fog, ESP across sw
zones where hrrr NAM indicating 1000mb cond pres deficits near
0. Any fog will burn off before mid morning with daytime mixing
commencing.

Mid level elongated shortwave warm front will lift north through
e nc through the afternoon and early evening hours bringing a
bkn 100-150k ft cloud deck. High res cams indicate some
showers storms breaking out along active sea breeze after 2pm,
esp near but inland from the coast and sounds. Have indicated
20-40 pops, with lowest pops across the coastal plain and no
pops on the beaches where active sea breeze should keep any
storms just inland. Low level thicknesses on par with warmer
met ecm MOS guide in fcsting highs near 90 interior to 80-85
beaches despite the mostly cloudy skies today.

Short term tonight
As of 330 am thu... Aforementioned mid level feature will still
be lifting north after 0z though loss of diurnal heating will
see a decrease in showers through midnight. Have a dry fcst
thereafter. Should see just a bit more of a breeze for tonight,
so fog should not be an issue. It will be warm and steamy with
lows mid upr 70s eastern areas to low mid 70s coastal plain
counties.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 410 am Thursday... Moisture from the remnants of tropical
storm cindy will be drawn northeast over the carolinas through
the weekend. A strong cold front will move through the region
Monday night into Tuesday as a strong mid level trough crosses
the region. The front is forecast to move south of the region
Tuesday with high pressure building over the area mid to late
week with cooler less humid conditions expected.

Friday through Sunday... Hot and windy conditions are expected
Friday and Saturday as strong SW flow develops over the region
ahead of the approaching remnants of cindy. The models are not
indicating much in the way of precipitation Friday-Friday night
so will lower pops to 30% Friday and indicate dry weather fri
night aft 00z. On Sat the remnant low is forecast to pass to
the north of the region while weakening. Expect to see scattered
convection develop in the afternoon along a trailing surface
trough and local sea breezes. Latest models have backed off on
coverage QPF amounts for Sat so will leave pops at 50%. There is
enough shear and instability to support a low end severe
threat. With pw values AOA 2" torrential downpours will also be
possible. Winds could gust to 30 mph at times as the pressure
gradient tightens. Consensus of the guidance is for better rain
chances Sat night into Sunday especially along the coast as the
surface trough briefly stalls and is overrun by an area of
deeper moisture.

Highs in the lower 90s are expected both days with some mid 90s
possible inland sat. Lows Sat night will be in the sultry mid to
upper 70s.

Monday through Tuesday... A strong cold front will move into the
area Monday and is forecast to move south of the area early tue.

Initially moisture return will be poor ahead of the front Mon so
will keep pops in the 30-40% range. Although the front is
expected to be south of the region on Tuesday, a strong mid
level shortwave is forecast to cross the area producing a 20-30%
chance of showers and storms, again with the best chance along
the coast. Highs Mon will be in the mid 80s then cooler low 80s
tue in the cloudy northerly low level flow behind the front.

Mid to late next week... High pressure is forecast to build over
the area mid through late next week producing dry, cooler and
less humid conditions across the area with highs inland 80 to 85
and and upper 70s coast. Lows are forecast in the comfortable
low to mid 60s inland.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 730 am thu... MVFR ifr in fg stratus will burn off by mid
morning as SW breeze picks up. Should see mostly cloudy mid to
high level clouds today, with some isolated showers storms
developing by later afternoon into early evening, though not
enough coverage or confidence to indicate more than a vcsh
mention in tafs at this time. Fog threat tonight will be much
less, as SW breeze should preclude the fog development. Could be
a period of MVFR CIGS develop late tonight as moistening sw
breeze continues.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 410 am Thursday... While most of the period will seeVFR
conditions, a very moist unstable airmass will lead to showers
and thunderstorms, especially from late Sat into Sunday when the
best chance for periods of subVFR conditions will occur.

Patchy late night early morning fog will also be possible,
especially in areas that receive rainfall.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 330 am thu... Fairly good boating conditions through
tonight, as SW winds will be 5-15 kt this morning and early
afternoon, though increase to 10-20 later this afternoon through
the evening. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet through this morning,
increasing to 3 to 4 feet late afternoon through the night
tonight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 410 am Thursday... An enhanced pressure gradient between
strong atlantic high pressure to the east and the remnant low
from tropical storm cindy moving NE from louisiana toward the
carolinas virginias will lead to persistent SW winds around 25
kt from late Fri through Sat evening producing rough seas of 5
to 8 ft. The SW flow will diminish late Sat night before a
surface trough causes winds to shift to northerly around 10 kt
Sunday. Seas are forecast to subside below 6 ft early Sunday
morning. Winds will veer to E and late Sunday and then become
l v Sunday night into early mon. Winds are forecast to become s
around 10 kt Mon afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.

Seas subside to 2 to 4 ft Sunday afternoon and 2 to 3 ft Sunday
night and mon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-103-
104.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tl
near term... Tl
short term... Tl
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme tl
marine... Jme tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 27 mi54 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 77°F1018.6 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi48 min W 7 G 8.9 79°F 78°F1018.8 hPa
44095 38 mi48 min 70°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi48 min WSW 12 G 15 77°F 62°F1018 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi31 min 69°F2 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC26 mi81 minW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F72°F84%1019 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W6NW5CalmW6W4W5SW10SW11W8SW11SW11SW13SW12SW10W10W9W6W6W10W7W6W7W5
1 day agoW4W6W5W4SW7N3NW4NW4CalmCalmW5SW7SW8W9SW10SW9SW9W10SW9SW9SW10W9W11W11
2 days agoSW14SW14
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W6

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:02 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0-0.100.20.40.60.70.70.60.50.30.1-0-0.1-00.20.40.60.80.90.80.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:33 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.1-0.10.10.30.60.80.90.90.70.50.20-0.1-0.10.10.30.711.11.110.80.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.