Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:22PM Monday March 25, 2019 7:55 PM EDT (23:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:34PMMoonset 9:14AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 635 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
.gale warning in effect from 5 am edt Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight, then increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms until early morning, then showers likely late.
Tue..N winds 25 to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 252221
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
621 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure and its associated cold front will push across the
area late tonight. Strong high pressure will build in from the
north Tuesday through Thursday then slide offshore Friday and
Saturday. The next frontal system will impact the region Sunday
into Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 620 pm Monday... No changes to previous thinking. A robust
shortwave and broad surface low pressure area is pushing across
the southern appalachians this afternoon. Shower activity has
been increasing across the coastal plain late today in response
to approaching low cold front and mid level trough. CAPE is
currently around 500 j kg with 30-40 kt bulk shear. The marginal
instability will persist into the early evening keeping a small
chance for thunder ahead of the front.

The upper tough will continue to move toward the area overnight
while the low pressure area deepens as it pushes across the
region. Precip chances will increase in earnest this evening as
prefrontal moisture convergence increases ahead of the
approaching cold front and PVA is maximized as a h5 shortwave
crosses the carolinas. Showers ahead of the front will become
stratiform rain behind it as conditions stabilize quickly as
the low moves offshore and the cold front pushes across the area
after midnight. QPF amounts still looking to be around a
quarter to three quarters of an inch, highest across the
northern counties. Temps will remain mild this evening, mainly
in the 60s, ahead of the front, but are expected to drop to
around 45-50 by daybreak Tuesday with CAA ramping up behind the
front.

The low will deepen rapidly late tonight as it pushes offshore
producing a tightening pressure gradient across the area and
resulting in very windy conditions developing along the coast
toward daybreak.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
As of 330 pm Monday... Tight pressure gradients between deepening
low pressure offshore and strong high pressure building in from
the NW will persist through Tuesday. Could see some lingering
showers Tuesday morning through 15z, especially near the coast,
but they will quickly push offshore with dry conditions and
decreasing clouds through the afternoon. Very windy conditions
will persist through the day bringing rough surf conditions
along much of the coast and coastal flooding concerns along the
southern pamlico sound. See tides coastal flooding section below
for details. Continue the wind advisory for the obx and
extended to include down east carteret county for winds to 30-35
mph with gusts up to 45-50 mph. Temps will be much cooler with
highs generally around 50-55 degrees.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 300 pm mon... Gusty nne winds and cool temps begin Tuesday
night through mid week. High pressure builds across the area
late week with dry weather and warming temperature trend into
the weekend. Next front will impact region late next weekend.

Tuesday night through wed... Low pressure moving offshore combined
with strong high pressure building in from the north will lead to
strong nne winds this period especially along the coast. Dry weather
expected through Wed with cool temps and gusty nne winds. Highs will
be mainly in the 50s with northern tier possibly holding in the
upper 40s. Tuesday night minimum temps will be the coldest of the
long term period, with low mid 30s inland though decent breeze
should limit threat for frost. Wind gusts Tuesday night will range
40 to 50 mph, thus no changes to ongoing wind advisory. See
tides coastal flood section below for details on possible minor
coastal flooding and high surf.

Wednesday night through Saturday... The high pressure ridge axis will
shift off the new england coast though continue to nose southwest
over eastern nc through the period. Gusty coastal winds will
diminish, and dry weather will continue. Temps may be close to
freezing again for minimum temps early Thursday morning, then
moderate into the 60s by Thursday afternoon. Building heights and
thicknesses will lead to temps rising above climatology by Friday
into Saturday with lower 70s Fri and mid upper 70s Sat inland.

Sunday... Guidance indicates a strong trough will dig into the ohio
river valley on Sunday, with a surface low moving from the southern
great lakes into southern quebec, dragging a cold front through
eastern nc sometime late Sunday into Monday. Big differences amongst
guidance with regards to location timing so will cap pops at chance
for late Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures remain mild Sunday
with highs in the low mid 70s inland to 60s beaches.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 620 pm Monday... SubVFR conditions are forecast to
develop 2-4z and continue through 16-18z Tuesday. Scattered
showers possible thunderstorms late today will become numerous
this evening as an area of low pressure and cold front approach
and push across the area after midnight. High confidence that
cigs will lower to MVFR by late this evening with shower
coverage continuing to increase ahead of the front. Could see a
period of ifr conditions (especially in ceilings) late tonight
into Tue morning behind the front with low level moisture
lingering below a strengthening low level inversion.VFR
conditions will return by mid-day Tue with gusty northerly winds
to around 25-30 kt across the area through out the day which
could bring cross wind concerns at area terminals.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Monday...VFR conditions will prevail for the long
term. Gusty nne winds will persist into Wed especially closer to
coast. High pressure building in from the west through Thu and
sliding offshore fri, leading to a prolonged period ofVFR.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 620 pm Monday... No changes to previous thinking. A storm
system approaching from the west will keep moderate south to
southwest winds 10-20 kt through the evening hours. A strong
cold front will then move through the waters overnight, leading
to a period of more variable winds and widespread showers and
thunderstorms overnight, before passing offshore very late
tonight.

Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly Tuesday morning as
gusty north to northeast winds develop behind the departing
storm system. Winds across marine areas are expected to increase
from around 15 kt to over 35 kt within only a couple of hours,
between about 8z and 14z. Continue the gale warning for all
waters except the inland rivers where the small craft advisory
remains. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft through tonight, then
will build rapidly Tue with guidance showing 10-15 ft north of
ocracoke inlet to 6-10 ft south by Tue afternoon.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Gale warning continues into Tuesday night
for all waters except inland rivers where SCA expected. Tight
gradient between departing low pressure offshore and strong high
to the north will lead to nne winds 25 to 40 kts into Tue night
that will slowly subside Wed into Thu reaching 15 kts by thu
evening. NE winds become light Fri as high pressure builds
across the waters, then as the high moves offshore Sat winds
will become ssw 10 to 15 kts.

Dangerous seas of 8 to 16 feet expected by later Tue that will
only slowly subside to 7 to 13 feet Wed and reach 5 to 8 feet
late thu. As winds become light Fri seas will subside to 4 to 6
feet, then finally drop below SCA levels all waters Sat reaching 2
to 4 feet late.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 pm mon... The strong N NE winds Tue will lead to very
rough surf and poss some minor coastal flooding that will cont
into mid week. The greatest threat for minor coastal flooding
exists for areas along the southern pamlico sound later Tuesday
into Wednesday morning. The area of greatest concern is
downeast carteret county, where inundation of up to 2 feet for
very low lying areas is possible. A coastal flood advisory will
be issued for counties adjacent to the southern pamlico sound
with this forecast package.

Additionally, very rough surf will develop for the beaches from
cape lookout n... Espcly for the obx N of CAPE hatteras and will
issue a high surf advisory for these areas.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Wind advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday for
ncz103-104.

High surf advisory from 6 pm Tuesday to 11 pm edt Wednesday
for ncz095-104.

High surf advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 11 pm edt Wednesday
for ncz103.

Coastal flood advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 6 am edt
Wednesday for ncz093>095.

Wind advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday for
ncz095.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 pm edt Wednesday
for amz136-137.

Gale warning from 5 am Tuesday to 1 pm edt Wednesday for
amz135.

Gale warning from 5 am Tuesday to 2 am edt Wednesday for
amz130-131.

Gale warning from 5 am Tuesday to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
amz152-154.

Gale warning from 6 am Tuesday to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
amz156-158.

Gale warning from 5 am Tuesday to 7 am edt Wednesday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme sk
short term... Sk
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag jme sk
marine... Dag jme sk
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi62 min S 8.9 G 12 61°F 58°F1013.1 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi56 min S 5.1 G 9.9 65°F 60°F1013.3 hPa (-1.5)
44095 40 mi40 min 53°F2 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi56 min S 12 G 14 66°F 49°F1011.8 hPa (-1.6)
FRFN7 40 mi116 min 1 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi56 min 49°F1 ft
44086 42 mi31 min 52°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi41 min 50°F2 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi76 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F55°F79%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E5SE4S8S6S11S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
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Mon -- 12:28 AM EDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:51 PM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:20 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.70.50.40.20-0-00.10.30.50.60.70.60.50.30.20.1-000.10.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:54 PM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.50.50.40.20.10-000.10.20.30.40.50.40.30.20.10-000.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.