Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:26PM Monday June 18, 2018 3:16 AM EDT (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1012 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
Overnight..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180655
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
255 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
An offshore high inland trough pattern will continue through mid
week producing a hot southwest flow across the area. A weak
frontal boundary may move into northern sections Tuesday night
and Wednesday with a somewhat stronger front pushing through
the area Thursday.

Near term through today
As of 255 am mon... Latest sfc analysis shows 1021mb high
pressure anchored off the SE coast with weak troughing across
central nc. Latest radar imagery shows good coverage of showers
and storms early this morning along and east of hwy 17. Storms
continue to pulse up and down this morning with little to no
shear. Main threats will be heavy downpours and frequent
lightning. Expect convection to push off the coast in the next
few hours. Shortwave energy moves SE of the area today as the
upper ridge builds eastward and the offshore high inland trough
surface pattern continues. Expect scattered convection to
develop this afternoon with a moist and unstable airmass
persisting; pw values around 2" and CAPE around 3000 j kg.

Primary forcing is expected to be along the sea breeze and any
lingering outflow boundaries from overnight storms. Low level
thicknesses increase several meters and support highs in the low
to mid 90s well inland to upper 80s lower 90s closer to the
coast. Heat indices are expected to top out around 100-105 this
afternoon. Could be close to advisory criteria for a few
counties along hwy 17, but looks too marginal at this point for
an advisory.

Short term tonight
As of 255 am mon... Expect lingering convection to weaken with
loss of heating this evening, with isolated showers storms
possible along the coast. Mild and muggy overnight with lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 245 am sun... Hot and humid conditions are expected this
week, and we will see the hottest temperatures of the year so
far. Highs in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices 105-115,
are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be diurnally
based scattered thunderstorms through midweek, with a more
unsettled pattern likely by the end of the week as a cold front
approaches from the north.

Monday night through Wednesday... A strong upper level ridge
will build over the lower mississippi valley through midweek,
leading to hot and humid conditions across eastern nc. At the
surface, high pressure will become centered well offshore, and
ridge into the SE us, while a weak trough forms over central nc.

Increasing low level heights through Wednesday will support
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland, and the upper
80s to low 90s near the coast. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the
most oppressive days, as dewpoints increase into the mid to
upper 70s, and heat indices climb into the upper 100s to low
110s. Overnight low temperatures will be very mild ranging from
the low to upper 70s. There will be scattered precip chances
everyday, thanks to daily sea breeze formation and the weak
inland trough which will develop over central nc. Have mostly
chance pops through this period, with the best coverage likely
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Saturday... A cold front will approach from the
north Thursday, and there still remains considerable model
differences with how far south it will reach. The latest ecmwf
has trended towards the gfs, showing the front pushing through
all of eastern nc, though the ECMWF is much slower. Given the
time of year, and relative weakness of the front, think the
slower frontal passage is more valid. This scenario would
involve unsettled weather lasting Thursday through Saturday, and
have reflected this in the forecast. Have mostly chance pops
for the area with greater coverage during the daytime hours.

High temperatures will still be very warm, reaching the low to
mid 90s Thursday, and then the upper 80s to low 90s Friday and
Saturday. Low temps will continue to be mild, mostly in the 70s.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 255 am mon,..Vfr forecast for most of period as typical
summertime offshore high inland trough pattern will continue.

Showers and storms impacting mainly ewn early this morning, will
push off the coast in the next few hours. Scattered showers and
storms expected to re-develop this afternoon and early evening,
best chances at ewn and oaj, with periods of sub-vfr possible.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 300 am sun...VFR conditions are expected through most of
the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible in the afternoon each day due to scattered
thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 255 am mon... Latest obs shows W SW winds 5-10 kt north of
oregon inlet with seas around 2 ft, and 10-20 kt south of
oregon inlet with seas 3-4 ft. An offshore high inland trough
pattern will continue through the short term bringing typical
diurnally enhanced wind pattern. SW winds are expected to relax
to around 5-15 kt this morning, then increase to 15-25 kt across
the central and southern waters in the afternoon and evening.

Seas expected around 2-4 ft through the period but could see
some 5 ft seas across outer waters south of hatteras late this
afternoon and tonight. Will go ahead an issue a marginal SCA for
the waters south of hatteras, developing this afternoon
evening into tonight. The gradient will tighten, and most model
fields show winds increasing to 15-25 kt.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 300 am sun... Sw winds 15-20 kts expected to last through
Wednesday morning, then winds become SW 10-15 kts south of cape
hatteras, and SW 5-10 to the north through Thursday. Seas are
expected to be around 3-5 ft south of hatteras and 2-4 ft north
through Tuesday night, then 3-4 ft south and 2-3 ft north
Wednesday and Thursday.

Climate
Near record high temperatures will be possible early this week.

Record high temps 6 18 (Monday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 90 1975
greenville 99 1920
jacksonville 95 1984
kinston 101 1944
morehead city 91 2015
new bern 96 2014
record high temps 6 19 (Tuesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 1984
greenville 98 1975
jacksonville 97 1984
kinston 100 1944
morehead city 94 1984
new bern 99 1970
record high temps 6 20 (Wednesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 2011
greenville 99 1970
jacksonville 97 1994
kinston 104 1924
morehead city 93 2011
new bern 98 1994

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Sgk
aviation... Cqd sgk
marine... Cqd sgk
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi47 min WSW 12 G 14 77°F 82°F1017.7 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi47 min WSW 8 G 13 74°F 81°F1018 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi47 min WSW 8 G 12 77°F 73°F1017.1 hPa
44095 40 mi59 min 77°F2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi47 min 78°F1 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi32 min 77°F2 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi42 minW 510.00 miOvercast76°F72°F89%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W6W6SW5W6W7W10W7W5CalmS4S11S12
G17
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SW11SW10SW6SW7W8SW7W7SW8W7
1 day agoCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE3E4E3E4E5NE3NE7SE6SE6SE4S6S4S4S10SW11SW12SW10SW10SW9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE9NE8
G14
NE9NE8NE6E5E9E8E5E6E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.70.60.40.20.1-0-0.100.20.40.60.70.70.60.50.30.10-000.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:35 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:48 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.60.60.50.30.20.1000.10.20.30.40.50.40.40.30.10.1000.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.