Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:20PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:13 AM EDT (06:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 105 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Rest of tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog late.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 220500
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
100 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through tonight and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Tuesday
night. High pressure will build over the area mid to late week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 100 am Sunday... A "dirty" ridge of high pressure surface
and aloft will continue over nc through Sunday then both will
begin to move offshore Sunday night. Widespread mainly thin high
based cirrus clouds permeated the ridge and continue to stream
ene across the region late tonight. Earlier these clouds were
opaque enough to inhibit radiational cooling but currently they
have seemed to thin enough to allow cooling with mostly calm
winds across the area and this has resulted in patchy fog
developing. The presence of widespread high clouds and their
periodic influence on cooling complicates the low temperature
forecast so will continue with previous forecast which raised
mins to the lower 50s inland with a few of the normally colder
spots possibly briefly touching the upper 40s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Monday
As of 330 pm Saturday... Surface high center to n-ne will shift
offshore during the day resulting in low level flow becoming
e-se and dew points gradually increasing. Expect some CU scu
development along with continued high cloudiness. Thicknesses
will be a few meters higher and continued previous forecast of
highs in lower 80s inland to mid-upper 70s outer banks.

Long term Monday through Sunday
As of 330 pm Saturday...

Sunday night and Monday... The high moves further offshore while
a significant deepening shortwave and cold front begins to
advance into the deep south and tn valley. This will bring
slight strengthening return southeasterly flow, so some iso sct
showers may advect onshore across the fa as boundary layer
moisture increases through the day and into Monday night. Monday
appears to be the warmest day through the period with low lvl
thicknesses maxing out around 1390m, indicative of highs in the
lower 80s for the entire area, save for the beaches which will
remain in the upr 70s. Lows Sunday night around mid to upper 50s
inland to mid 60s coast and around 65-70 Monday night with
increasing southerly flow.

Monday night through Tuesday night... A deep upper trough and
strong cold front progged to move through the region. 12z models
have trended faster with the precip moving into the region late
Monday night into Tuesday leading to some uncertainty with
timing on onset of precip as well as FROPA later in the day
Tuesday. Vorticity advection increases as models depict
dampening shortwave trough pivoting through the tn ohio valleys,
and will spur sfc cyclogenesis in the southern appalachians
acting to increase dynamics and strengthening southerly flow on
50+ kt llj. Dewpoints will be quite high in the 60s on Tuesday
and would be sufficient for marginal instability, and the
combination of significant wind shear and marginal instability
could spell a high shear low CAPE scenario for strong or severe
storms. Any heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms could
produce strong gusty winds due to momentum transfer to the sfc
from strong winds aloft.

Wednesday through Saturday... Rapid drying and cooling expected
Wednesday as the front should move off the coast by early
morning. Have retained the small pops for Wednesday though
confined them to the extreme eastern areas mainly the obx as the
deep upper low moves through E nc with lingering deep layer
moisture across the obx. Dry wnw flow on Thursday as upper low
finally exits off the mid atlantic coast and high pressure
builds into the region. The high moves offshore next weekend
with the next frontal system approaching from the west but
models are not in good agreement with the timing of this system
and will keep pops to a minimum. Temps will be much cooler for
the mid week period with Wednesday and Thursday both in the 60s
to near 70 for highs. High pressure slides offshore Friday with
return flow bringing gradually warming temps with highs in the
70s. Low temps fall back into the 50s inland to around 60 coast
for Wednesday morning, then into the 40s inland and low 50s
beaches for Thursday Friday mornings.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday night ...

as of 100 am Sunday... Main concern is the potential again for
patchy dense fog and local ifr conditions tonight. Forecast is
complicated by widespread high clouds of varying degrees of
opaqueness which will inhibit radiational cooling at times. Best
chance for ifr will be at pgv and ewn which experienced these
conditions last night. Elsewhere a brief period of MVFR
visibilities will be possible through 12z.VFR conditions then
prevail across the area after 13z Sunday through Sunday evening.

Late Sunday there will be potential for MVFR ceilings to
develop as the flow becomes se.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 330 pm Saturday... PredVFR conditions expected Sunday
night into Monday, however there may be overnight early morning
fog all TAF sites as low level moisture increases and skies
remain mostly clear with calm winds. Brief periods of sub-vfr
possible with isolated to scattered showers spreading onshore
Monday. Much better chance of widespread MVFR ifr arrives on
later Monday night into Tuesday as periods of heavy rain ahead
of a strong cold front. Gusty southerly winds also expected on
Tuesday ahead of the front. PredVFR expected to return Tuesday
night through mid week as drier air moves into the region behind
the front.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 100 am Sunday... Seas remain 2 to 3 feet with east to
northeast winds around kts, with no adjustments made to the
forecast. High pressure will remain centered to n-ne tonight,
then gradually move offshore Sunday resulting in winds becoming
e-se but speeds remaining around 10 knots and seas 2-3 ft.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 330 pm Saturday... High pressure slides offshore Sunday
night Monday with SE winds around 10-15 kt, increasing to around
15-20 kt Monday afternoon. Seas will be around 2-4 ft.

Southerly winds increase drastically Monday night and peak
around 20-30 kt with some gale force gusts possible on Tuesday
ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Seas
build to 8-12 feet by Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Models are trending faster with the cold frontal passage across
the region late Tuesday with winds becoming NW around 10-20 kt
and seas gradually subsiding to 4-6 ft by Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure builds into the region Thursday with W NW winds
around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-5 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jme jbm
near term... Jme jbm eh
short term... Jbm
long term... Sk
aviation... Jme eh sk
marine... Jme jbm eh sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi43 min NE 4.1 G 6 68°F 72°F1026.9 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 72°F1026.6 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi43 min E 7 G 8.9 68°F 70°F1026.7 hPa
44095 40 mi55 min 73°F2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi43 min 70°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi38 min 71°F2 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi28 minENE 310.00 miFair0°F0°F%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N5NE6E7E7E7E6E4CalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW5NW6NW4N5N5NE6NE8NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE5NE5NE7E6E5E6E6E7E9E8E7E5E5E5NE6E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
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Sun -- 04:58 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:54 AM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:43 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.40.20.10.10.10.30.50.70.80.80.80.70.50.40.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 06:30 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.30.20.1000.10.20.30.50.60.60.50.40.30.10.1000.10.20.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.