Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:41 AM EST (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 310 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Vsby 1 nm or less early this morning.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 220832
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
332 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to extend over the area from the
western atlantic through this evening and produce a very warm
southerly flow across the region. A backdoor cold front will
sag south into northern portions of eastern north carolina late
tonight and early Friday then lift back north Friday afternoon.

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night into early
Monday. Another front will impact the area during the middle of
next week.

Near term today
As of 245 am Thursday... Still under the influence of the
historically strong (for this time of year) upper ridge with
this system expected to weaken over the next 24 hours in
response to shortwave energy ejecting out of the western trough.

This will allow a backdoor cold front to sag south into
northern portions of eastern nc late tonight. The record to near
record heat will continue today with high temperatures inland
in the upper 70s to low 80s and 70 to 75 along the immediate
coast.

Satellite and surface observations indicate that fog and low
clouds are rapidly developing across the region early this
morning in response to moist inflow underneath the nocturnal
inversion. May need to issue a dense fog advisory around 5 am
but saving grace may be lack of decoupling as the low levels
remain mixed for the most part. Expect the clouds and fog to
dissipate similar to the past couple of days between 9 and 11
am.

Short term tonight
As of 245 am Thursday... The backdoor front is forecast to sag
south into northern portions of eastern nc late tonight. The
front will be moisture starved and at worst expect an isolated
shower or two with it. Should see redevelopment of fog and low
clouds after midnight as airmass ahead of the front will be
similar to previous few nights. Overnight lows will again be
around 60.

Long term Friday through Thursday
As of 315 am Thursday... Strong high pressure at the surface and
aloft offshore will continue to provide a warm southwest flow
into the region Friday into the weekend. An approaching cold
front coupled with deep moisture will lead to an increased rain
threat Sunday into Monday before another cold front brings a
return to dry weather Tuesday.

Friday and Saturday... Near-record high temperatures expected
given southwest flow and unusually high 500 mb heights over the
region. A weak back door front may move into the far northern
counties early Friday, but should quickly move back north. High
temperatures will be well into the 70s with a few spots reaching
the lower 80s inland both Friday and Saturday. Gfs ECMWF show
the development of a few showers Saturday given an increase in
precipitable water ahead of next front.

Sunday through Monday night... Deeper moisture will be drawn
north into the eastern carolinas ahead of cold front as ridge to
the east weakens and moves east. Continued high chance pops
Sunday night and especially Monday when deepest moisture and
best lift is in place. Continued very warm Sunday in warm sector
ahead of front with highs well into the 70s, but as front moves
offshore later Sunday night, highs on Monday will range mostly
in the upper 50s to lower 60s with more widespread precipitation
expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Dry high pressure will build across the
region with cooler temperatures, but still above normal under
mostly clear skies. Highs will generally be in the 60s with lows
in the 40s, still about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

Wednesday night and Thursday... An increase in deep moisture
ahead of low pressure crossing the mississippi and ohio valleys
will lead to another round of showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have high chance pops in the forecast. Temperatures
will remain mild, despite the precipitation however.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 245 am Thursday... Fog and low clouds producing lifr ifr
conditions will become widespread by dawn and dissipate by mid
to late morning with a return to prevailingVFR for the
afternoon and evening hours. Redevelopment of low clouds and fog
is expected again after midnight with ifr conditions likely
prevailing again late. Winds will be light S to SW through the
period.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail Friday and
Saturday as high pressure continues to circulate warm air into
the region on S SW winds. Some periods of sub-vfr conditions,
likely MVFR, are expected Sunday into Monday as an approaching
frontal system will bring more numerous showers, especially
behind the cold front on Monday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 245 am Thursday... No change to the overall pattern with
atlantic high pressure continuing over the waters through at
least this evening producing southerly flow 5 to 15 kt and 2
to 4 ft seas. Sea fog will again occur at times across the
waters but is very difficult to precisely forecast. Late
tonight a backdoor cold front could sag south into the northern
waters and albemarle sound with winds briefly shifting to n
around 10 kt.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday... Not alot of change in the latest marine
forecast. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the far
northern waters early Friday, briefly causing the winds to veer
to NW n, but winds should quickly become S SW Friday afternoon
and Saturday. Expect 10-15 knot winds for this period with seas
of 2-4 feet. Small craft advisory conditions still look like a
given on Sunday ahead of the cold front with gusty SW winds of
20-25 knots and seas building to as high as 6-7 feet, south of
oregon inlet. Winds subside again Monday behind the front as
winds become northerly.

Climate
Temps could approach and or break records today.

Record high temps 2 22 (Thursday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 76 1971 (khse)
greenville 80 2003 (coop)
jacksonville 77 2003 (knca)
kinston 78 2003 (coop)
morehead city 72 1971 (coop)
new bern 80 1980 (kewn)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Ctc
aviation... Jme ctc
marine... Jme ctc
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi48 min SSW 8 G 8 59°F 63°F1031.4 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi42 min W 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 60°F1031.7 hPa (-0.0)
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi42 min S 6 G 8.9 62°F 44°F1030.7 hPa (+0.0)
44095 40 mi54 min 48°F4 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi42 min 47°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi57 min 47°F3 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi67 minSW 30.50 miFog58°F57°F100%1031.8 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW7SW5SW5SW8W9S8SW9S11S16S13S12S9S9S8S8S3SW7S7S3S7S3SW3SW5
1 day agoS7S6S7SW9S8S11S13
G17
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G21
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G18
S13S12S12S11S9SW7S6S5S8S6S5S3SW4S6S4
2 days agoE8E8E6SE7SE6SE5S7
G14
S7S9
G15
S9S4S8S6S8S7S6S6S8SW3S5S4S5S9S9

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM EST     0.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:05 PM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:40 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.60.50.40.20.1000.10.30.40.50.60.60.50.30.20.10-00.10.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EST     0.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:00 PM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:58 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.50.40.30.20.10000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.10000.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.