Thursday, October19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Apex, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:35PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:18 AM EDT (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:06AMMoonset 5:54PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apex, NC
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location: 35.74, -78.86     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 190719
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
319 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Surface high pressure over the mid-atlantic will extend across
the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the
area from the west early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 220 am Thursday...

a weak mid upper level disturbance is currently moving across the
region this morning. However, with generally a dry atmo in place,
only a scattering of high cirrus is accompanying the weak
disturbance this morning. Otherwise, surface high pressure will
remain in place with slowly moderating temperatures. Model guidance
has trended cooler with high temps today, and have such lowered
highs by a couple of degrees from previous forecasts. Thus, expect
high temps will generally be in the lower to mid 70s today.

Mid level ridging will begin to build eastward and into the area
tonight, with surface high pressure holding over the area. This will
result in a continuation of dry and cool conditions with clear
skies. Low temps are expected to range from around 40 in the coldest
rural locations to the mid to upper 40s in the urban areas and far

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 235 am Thursday...

mid level ridge axis will build overhead on Friday into Friday
night, resulting in little change in the weather across central nc,
other than temps will be a bit warmer. Expect high temps will
generally be in upper 70s to around 80. Lows temps are expected to
range from the mid 40s in the cold spots to the lower 50s in the
urban areas and se.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 315 am Thursday...

little change in forecast rationale described well by the previous

Mid-upper ridging now over the WRN gom is forecast to amplify as it
builds east, across and offshore the sern us coast through the
weekend, and downstream of a powerful trough forecast to amplify
across the rockies and plains states. The models continue to
indicate that this initially meridional trough will separate and
yield a closing off of the SRN portion of the trough, as an
increasingly active SRN stream jet in split flow aloft noses across
the lower ms valley by Sun night. Model spread increases with
respect to the geometry and progression of a new trough forecast to
amplify from the NE pacific to the great lakes vicinity by the
middle of next week, and consequently how quickly this trough may
serve as a "kicker" to cause the aforementioned lead SRN stream wave
to lift and accelerate through the appalachians mon-tue.

At the surface, high pressure centered over the middle atlantic
states Sat will strengthen, beneath the building ridge aloft, and
move off the NRN middle atlantic and northeast coast by sun. A warm
front will retreat nwd, in return flow around the high, across the
carolinas sun-sun night. This will occur ahead of a deepening
surface cyclone and accompanying lead cold front related to the
aforementioned SRN stream closed low, forecast to migrate NE through
the SRN and central appalachians late mon-tue. A secondary cold
front, one related to the trailing trough forecast to reach the
great lakes vicinity by the middle of next week, will likely sweep
east of the appalachians and across nc late tue-tue night.

Sensible weather resulting from the pattern outlined above will
include mild and dry conditions this weekend, followed by the
passage of a band or bands of showers, and probable qlcs
thunderstorms, Mon night-early tue. Strong and coupled QG and
mesoscale forcing for ascent, and strengthening lower and deep-
tropospheric flow, will support an associated risk of severe storms
over the carolinas during that time. Much cooler conditions, and
variably cloudy ones, with a chance of "instability" showers in
cold, cyclonic flow aloft, will follow for Tue night-wed.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 220 am Thursday...

24-hour TAF period:VFR conditions will generally continue for the
24 hour TAF period. The one exception will be at fog prone krwi,
where some pre-dawn fog is expected this early this morning. Visbys
at krwi are expected to range from MVFR-lifr early this morning
through around sunrise. Otherwise,VFR conditions will continue with
light and variable to calm winds and mostly clear clear skies, as
surface high pressure remains over the region.

Looking ahead:VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of
the weekend, with brief periods of sub-vfr conditions in the pre-
dawn hours possible near krwi. Upslope flow in the west late Sunday
night or Monday ahead of an approaching cold front could result in
some sub-vfr conditions. However, the next chance for widespread sub-
vfr conditions will come with pre-frontal convection between Monday
afternoon and Tuesday night as the front moves into and through the

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Blaes
near term... Bsd
short term... Bsd
long term... Mws
aviation... Bsd kc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC11 mi28 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds43°F43°F100%1025.8 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC17 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair37°F36°F97%1025.7 hPa
Chapel Hill, Williams Airport, NC18 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair41°F39°F96%1025.6 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE8NE9N6E7NE6NE6E4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3N4NE4NE5NE9
2 days agoW3SW5CalmN76N6N5N6N4NE6N6NE6NE4CalmCalmNE8NE6N3N4NE6N4NE5N4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 03:36 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:05 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:58 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.