Friday, June23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:48PM Friday June 23, 2017 3:01 PM EDT (19:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:51AMMoonset 7:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 35.75, -81.54     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kgsp 231823
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
223 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase from the west into
early Saturday morning. Light showers will linger Saturday morning
as the front slowly crosses the area, and thunderstorms may
redevelop just ahead of the cold front over the piedmont.

Unseasonably cool and dry conditions will spread over the forecast
area in the wake of the front and persist through the middle of next

Near term through Saturday
As of 220 pm edt: satellite and surface observations show the
remnant cindy circulation over far western tn ky this afternoon, and
all models agree the system will get gradually absorbed into the
broad northern stream trough. The deep fetch of tropical moisture
ahead of the system stretches from central tn to eastern ms and this
band will move east toward the southern appalachians through the
evening hours. Meanwhile, conditions remain quiet this afternoon
across the western carolinas and NE ga. Despite plentiful dewpoints
around 70 degrees f, little to no triggering is apparent and
piedmont SBCAPE values above 1000 j kg cannot be realized due to
cinh and capping in the profiles under the southeast ridge. This
should change from the west as the cindy remnants arrive later this
evening, with the phasing system crossing the appalachians quickly
around midnight and then swinging east of the forecast area through
the early morning hours. The latest convection-allowing models have
activity reaching the western mountains around 00z and moving
quickly east of i-77 after 06z. The 50+ kt low level jet will
traverse the area centered around 03z, with peak low level shear
over the mountains 00z to 03z and over the piedmont 03z to 06z. This
would be the best window for any marginal severe weather and gusty
winds mixing to the surface, especially over the higher terrain.

A surface cold front will then arrive from the west in the wake of
the cindy remnants on Saturday, and only slowly move southeast
across the region Saturday afternoon. The slower cold front
progression will yield 2000 to 3000 j kg SBCAPE over much of the
eastern foothills and lower piedmont. Scattered, strong pulse type
storms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the southeast
half of the area through late Saturday afternoon.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 215 pm edt Friday: will plan on basing the Saturday evening
pop timing by extrapolating the namnest sfc refl which is progging
scattered deep convection translating acrs the piedmont 21-02z. Sfc
front should then translate to the coastal plain before sunrise
Sunday. Broad upper troughing builds into the eastern conus
starting on Sunday with an influx of drier continental airmass
expected atop the cwfa. Sunday afternoon sfc dwpts should be around
10 deg f lower than Saturday's values. Upper trough continues to
build toward the eastern seaboard on Monday while a persistent llvl
northerly flow allows for further drying. Sfc dwpts should fall
into the 50s, impressive values for late june.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 145 pm edt Friday: not much change from the previous fcst. The op
guidance remains in general good agreement with the synoptic pattern
which features a strong upstream ridge enforcing good subsidence
across the fa. There is a strong h5 S W depicted to cross the area
on tue... But with nil moisture to work with... Will anticipate only
mid high level clouds with this feature. The atmos remains rather
stable thru most of the period as a canadian high slowly crosses
overhead. There could be some limited mtn-top convg shra tstms
developing late Thu however confidence is too low ATTM to include in
the fcst grids. The best chance for precip will be Fri thru the
period when a cold front approaches from the west and by that time
the bermuda high will be back in it S normal config allowing SW ly
moist adv and seasonal sfc heating. Shower and TSTM activity will be
limited mainly to the higher terrain aided by mech lift. MAX min
temps will begin the period a couple cats below normal with a
gradual increase to near normal levels by the weekend.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere: sctVFR cumulus with heating will continue
through late day until the cindy remnants and associated moisture
begin to cross the area from the west, centered around 00z in the
mountains and 06z to 08z east of kclt. Shra tsra chances will ramp
up through the evening hours. Anticipate a period of MVFR CIGS late
evening through overnight, with a window of ifr toward daybreak in
abundant low level moisture. SW winds will continue and remain gusty
until the upper wave cindy remnants pass early Saturday, with a
weakening gradient as the frontal boundary settles into the region
from the northwest on Saturday. Shra tsra chances will start to
increase again with the front near the end of the period.

Outlook: a passing cold front will move southeast of the area
through the late weekend, with drier weather developing through most
of next week.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 80% high 80%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 86% med 75%
kavl high 100% high 100% med 68% med 63%
khky high 100% high 100% high 85% med 70%
kgmu high 100% high 93% med 70% med 75%
kand high 100% high 100% high 82% high 86%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morganton-Lenoir Airport, NC6 mi81 minS 8 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F67°F56%1015.9 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi68 minSW 14 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds85°F66°F55%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW7S8
1 day agoS3SW6SW5S3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW8SW3NW3
2 days agoSW4CalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5SW3S3CalmS4S5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (15,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.