Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 6:41PM Monday October 23, 2017 9:57 PM EDT (01:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 8:32PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 232344
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
744 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move east of the area tonight. Drier and cooler
air will sweep into the region on Tuesday leading to possible frosty
conditions Wednesday and Thursday morning. Dry conditions are expected
to persist through the remainder of the work week before another front
moves in next weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 740 pm edt: the back edge of the frontal band is along the
eastern border of the cwa, and will clear the area within the hour.

The remainder of the tornado watch will be cancelled for our area by
8pm. Otherwise, some clouds will linger through the night,
especially across the tn border counties. However, winds will
diminish through the evening in all locations. Could be some patchy
fog overnight if the winds go light enough. Lows will be a little
above normal.

W to NW winds increase with mixing Tuesday as the pressure gradient
only slowly relaxes between a departing cold front and building high
pressure. Lingering moisture along the tn border will keep clouds
and isolated showers across that area through the day. Elsewhere
expect mostly sunny skies. Highs will be near to a little below
normal as cooler air begins to move in across the area.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 210 pm mon: a full-latitude trough will deepen over the
eastern CONUS Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The associated
sfc low will move north out of the great lakes while the cold front
moves east of our cwfa. Heights will continue to fall Tuesday night
as colder air filters into the area. Moisture appears unlikely
to be sufficient for much additional precip at that time. Winds
remain westerly as opposed to nw, limiting their ability to drive
precip along the spine of the appalachians anyway. Thus only a low
slight chance pop is included along the tennessee border. Temps
will be cool enough to mention a changeover from rain to snow in
the highest elevations, though it is more likely the precip will
taper off before changing over. Near-freezing temps (2-3 categories
below normal) and small dewpoint depressions imply some possibility
of frost in the mountains Wednesday morning.

Skies will be mostly clear east of the mountains Wednesday,
though temps will remain several degrees below normal. Winds will
remain generally across the appalachians. A secondary shot of
low-level moisture is suggested by some guidance Wednesday night,
when temps will dip even colder under lighter winds and still with
little cloud cover at higher levels. However, at the present time,
confidence is too low to mention any precip in this period; frost
may return to more of the area however. MAX temps will begin to
rebound Thursday as the cold advection weakens or reverses and
under a modifying airmass.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 235 pm edt Monday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Friday with another upper trof digging down across the eastern
dakotas and minnesota and steep upper ridging building over the
west coast. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof will
amplify as it moves eastward. The trof axis will eventually
move over the fcst area by the end of the period late Sunday
into early Monday. At the sfc, lingering high pressure will be
centered over the region while the next cold front approaches
from the west. The long range models have the front moving into
the cwfa by late Sat with the latest GFS continuing to be about
12 to 18hrs faster than the ecmwf. By early next week, the front
is expected to be east of the cwfa with high pressure spreading
back over the area.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
***comms to the khky ASOS have been lost. Amd not sked there until
further notice***
at kclt and elsewhere: convection has moved east of the terminals
and winds have shifted to the sw. This will gradually usher in drier
air through the overnight. The main concern is whether this drying
will occur fast enough to preclude any visby problems tonight. The
current thinking is that continued 5-10 kt winds will keep the
atmosphere sufficiently mixed to preclude restrictions early in the
period, and that enough dry air should be in place to prevent fog
development once the winds fall off between midnight and daybreak.

The most likely exception will be at khky, which is typically more
sheltered from SW flow. MVFR visby along with few005 is forecast
there during the pre-dawn hours. Certainly can't completely rule out
any restrictions elsewhere, but this doesn't appear likely.

Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds
will turn more toward the W at most terminals during the day Tuesday
and increase to around 10 kts.

Outlook: drier and cooler conditions will build back into the area
behind a cold front through Thursday. Moisture will slowly return
ahead of another cold front toward the weekend.

Confidence table...

23-05z 05-11z 11-17z 17-18z
kclt med 69% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% med 66% high 100%
khky med 69% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSE6CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.