Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:45PM Monday January 22, 2018 11:09 AM EST (16:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:49AMMoonset 11:06PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 221547
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1047 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to weaken as a moist cold front advances
toward the area and crosses east on Tuesday. In the fronts wake, dry
high pressure will overspread the region and persist through the
work week. Another moist cold front will likely affect the forecast
area over the weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 1030 am est: thick cirrus continues to stream across the area,
and is slowing the diurnal warm up a bit. Tweaked hourly temps, but
still think the current MAX temps look on track, given the morning
raob 1000-850 mb thicknesses. Tweaks were also made to delay ramp up
of pops across the west per latest model guidance which lines up
with radar trends. So expecting a mild day under a high-based
overcast with a chance of showers ramping up in the west this aftn.

The strongly dynamic system will lift ene today toward the great
lakes, with an impressive >130kt upper jet rounding the base of the
trough and pushing into the mountains later today and tonight. 850-
925mb winds pick up as well, with a 40+kt 925mb jet out of the south
and over 50kt at 850mb. As the front approaches and the gradient
increases, mountain wave activity may pick up and this combined with
the pressure gradient and upper jet will allow for some hefty winds
across the higher elevations of the mountains. Have opted to issue a
high-elevation wind advisory (>3500ft).

Other concern is potential for convection along and ahead of the
front. By its nature as a nocturnal frontal passage, instability
would be low anyway, but the strong deep-layer shear (70-90kt 0-6km)
is a concern. Both NAM and GFS have a tongue of 100-200j kg sbcape
lifting N ahead of the front, spreading across the blue ridge and
piedmonts late tonight. Sherb values approach 1 across the area as
the front pushes through. Hodographs are more impressively curved
this afternoon and evening and begin to straighten out a bit (as
surface winds shift to sw) when the instability arrives, but still
shear is quite high. We remain only in general thunder for spc's
day1 outlook and generally feel that is reasonable, but cells will
have to be monitored closely tonight. Luckily cams do not seem to be
all that excited about discrete convection, so for now the biggest
concern would be from isolated wind gusts that are able to descend
in the convective cells that develop.

Precip moves out quickly on Tuesday and CAA lags a bit, allowing
highs to climb again above seasonal normals across the piedmont.

Will have to continue to reevaluate the wind threat late Tuesday and
into the short term period for the northern mountains. Northwest
flow snow may pick up slightly late in the period, but of the
operational models, GFS has the most moisture which isn't all that
impressive.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 145 am est Monday... Upper level forcing continues to weaken
early Wed as a broad trof lifts across new eng. This will allow a
small scale ridge to build in ahead of a developing and potent h5
s W progged to traverse the area by Wed afternoon. The ridge will
develop a subs inversion over the higher terrain and limit the depth
of upstream NW flow moisture. There looks to be an ample feed of
glakes moisture however... So expect relatively weak mech-lift snow
to continue across the NRN nc mtns overnight mixing with rain before
the S W axis crosses by 21z or so. No sigfnt additional accums are
expected with perhaps arnd and inch in the favored higher peaks such
as beech mtn. There wont be much impact with the upper wave
elsewhere in the fa as a SRN stream sfc hipres quickly builds in
from the west. This will keep winds aligned NW ly Wed and most of
thu. MAX temps will likely reach normal levels or few degrees abv
normal Wed Thu outside of the NRN zones where modest llvl CAA is
maximized wed.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
As of 230 am Monday... Not too many changes were made to the going
ext fcst. Friday will remain dry as a strongly amplified ridge
develops over the midwest and propagates toward the atl coast thru
sat morning. This will merge a SRN stream sfc high with a cp high
early Fri as it ridges down the east coast. Winds will remain SE ly
and then begin to veer E ly which will help keep MAX temps right
arnd normal or a bit abv normal even with very good insol.

Increasing moisture adv from the SW will begin at h85 Fri night and
by Sat morning there shud be enuf lift over the SRN br to create sct
-shra. The upper dynamics begin to increase during this time as well
as a 150+ kt upper jet core develops across the oh valley into tn.

This will leave the area in a very good div lift while atl moisture
adv enhances the gom moisture feed. So... Have pops quickly ramping
up to likely Sat evening thru the overnight. With the enhanced
lift... There could be some localized hydro issues mainly across the
srn br.

Things get more interesting early Sun as sfc convg and deep layered
shear increase. Bulk shear will rise to arnd 60 kts... Yet due to the
current timing and cloud cover... The amount MUCAPE looks to be very
low for much of an organized svr threat. However... This will be a
situation to watch and even low-end CAPE events can produce isol line
segment tors and damaging winds. A lot can change before sun... But
right now the confidence is moderate in the overall synoptic
pattern given the latest ECMWF is now similar to the other op
models. Temps will drop below freezing behind the front and -snsh
are probable across the mtns with low-end accums expected as
moisture wanes quickly. MAX temps Sat shud be right arnd normal and
likely a couple cats abv normal Sun as SW ly flow continues within a
developing warm sector.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
At kclt and elsewhere: southerly flow will continue to increase
through the period as moisture continues to move in from the west
ahead of a strong system. High cloud will slowly lower through the
morning and early afternoon, but widespread MVFR expected to move in
from S to N generally after 18z, lowering to ifr and possibly lifr
as -shra moves in. Continued trend of prob30 -tsra in the predawn
hours Tuesday along and ahead of the front where instability may be
enough to get isolated thunderstorms going. Lgt vrb winds favoring
south will continue this morning, increasing this afternoon. Low-end
gusts to 20kt expected just ahead of the front, generally after
midnight, and llws at kavl and possibly khky would be an added
concern this evening into the early overnight period. Improvement to
vfr expected for most sites (except khky) by the end of the period
with winds swinging toward SW with continued low-end gusts.

Outlook: behind the front, dry high pressure will dominate the area
through the remainder of the week. Another system will move in over
the weekend, bringing another round of -shra and restrictions.

Confidence table...

15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z
kclt high 100% high 86% high 83% high 94%
kgsp high 100% high 93% high 95% med 63%
kavl high 100% high 86% high 81% med 79%
khky high 100% high 86% high 91% med 76%
kgmu high 100% high 89% high 95% high 82%
kand high 100% med 78% high 80% high 92%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morganton-Lenoir Airport, NC6 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair41°F41°F100%1023 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair45°F39°F83%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW6S3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE3S3W3CalmSW8SW6W6W3W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW4NW3NW3CalmW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5S3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.