Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:01AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 261047
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
647 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
Warm and dry high pressure will build in across the region today. A
dissipating cold front crosses our region Thursday, then warm and
humid high pressure builds back in for Friday and Saturday. Another
front approaches from the west on Sunday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 645 am edt: low clouds linger over the i-40 corridor with fog
spreading out across the foothills into the northern upstate this
morning. Mountain valley fog has developed as well. The fog will be
patchy dense, so issued an sps for the potential travel problems.

The fog should dissipate by 14z with the low clouds over the i-40
corridor possibly lingering through noon.

Southerly flow develops between a departing high pressure center and
a cold front moving into the ms river valley. Lots of sunshine and
increasing thickness values as a ridge moves overhead will lead to
highs in the 80s across much of the area.

The ridge axis moves east tonight and a short wave approaches from
the west. This wave pushes the cold front into middle tn and al
overnight. The continued moist southerly flow will lead to an
increase in clouds overnight. Isolated showers may develop across
the NE ga mountains and the far SW nc mountains by daybreak, but the
rest of the area will remain dry. Lows will be around 10 degrees
above normal.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/
As of 315 am edt Wednesday: a negatively tilted short wave trough
will lift NE across the ohio valley on Thursday, brushing the nc
mountains early in the day. An associated cold front will bring a
line of decaying convection, which should move into the western half
of the cwfa in the 12-18z time frame. This may leave plenty of cloud
cover which may limit instability for the afternoon. But models do
show enough forcing to keep the convection going (albeit in probably
weak form) into the eastern half of the cwfa. The new day 2
convective outlook from SPC still has a large marginal risk from the
great lakes to the fl gulf coast, nudged a little east from the old
day 3 outlook. Temps will be be a little cooler than today's
readings under the clouds and precip, but still above normal.

Thursday night thru Friday night, the front will wash out and leave
a warm humid air mass in place. Forecast soundings on Friday show a
"loaded gun" type sounding, with a significant cap above the top of
the mixed layer. Guidance has trended less convective, so pops were
reduced to just slight chc, mainly in the mountains where terrain
effects may be enough to pop a few storms. Those that do develop (if
we do get the 2500 j/kg advertised in both NAM and gfs) may be quite
strong. Shear also remains high enough for quasi-organized cells,
but the limited upper forcing and the strong cap should limit
coverage. Highs rebound back into the lower to mid 80s across the
piedmont. Lows about 10-15 degrees above normal.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
As of 330 am edt Wednesday: a high amplitude upper ridge will build
along the east coast, while a bermuda high pattern sets up over the
southeast. This will bring summer-like conditions for Saturday into
Sunday, with temps Saturday approaching 90 in portions of the
piedmont. Persistent low-level southerly flow will bring more
moisture in, and it looks like we will be less capped than Friday.

So pops will feature slightly better coverage, but still isolated to
widely scattered in nature. The GFS advertises another day of
1500-2500 j/kg of sbcape, while the ECMWF and canadian show more
like 1000-1500 j/kg. Also, shear and upper support will be weaker
for convection. So pulse storm mode is most likely and severe threat
should be low.

Sunday and Monday, the broad upper trough over the western conus
will sharpen and close off an upper low over the midwest, then lift
into the great lakes. This will bring another negatively tilted
trough across the area on Monday. The medium range guidance is in
decent agreement on this, and also on the timing of the associated
cold front early Monday. This front looks to be stronger and more
strongly forced than the Thursday front, but currently looks to
cross during the diurnal minimum for instability. So while
confidence in pops GOES up, as far as severe threat, confidence
remains low. Temps will also be tricky, as the GFS in particular,
shows plenty of southerly upslope clouds and precip developing on
Sunday, while the ECMWF is drier. If the GFS is right, temps should
be at least a couple categories cooler than Saturday. However, if
the ec is right, Sunday could be another hot day for late april. I
opted to blend in some of the ec temps for Sunday, going slightly
above the superblend. Temps should be near or slightly below normal
behind the front Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/
At kclt and elsewhere: clt looks to stayVFR this morning with low
clouds and fog remaining north and west of the air field. Elsewhere,
low clouds and fog this morning will dissipate by 14z leaving cirrus
in place. Winds go S to SW all areas through the afternoon and
remain there overnight, although with diminishing speeds. Cirrus
increases through the evening with lowerVFR moving in from the
west ahead of a cold front by daybreak. Expect any restrictions and
precip to remain west of the area through daybreak as well.

Outlook: return flow moisture increases ahead of the next system
Thursday into Friday with the potential for thunderstorms
increasing. Scattered, diurnal thunderstorms will then continue over
the weekend.

Confidence table...

10-16z 16-22z 22-04z 04-06z
kclt high 83% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 94% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 89% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 97% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 94% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morganton-Lenoir Airport, NC6 mi70 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist59°F58°F100%1010.5 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F57°F96%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW3N4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN4NE4NE5
G14
CalmN5NE6N7N4N3N3N3NE4N5N4N3NE3NW4CalmCalmCalmNW3N4CalmCalm
2 days agoNE6NE5N3NE7N5N5NE5N6N4N6N5N6N6N5N4N5N5NW3N4N4NE4N5NE5N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.