Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:37PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:49 AM EDT (09:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 170809
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
405 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
A quasi-stationary front over southern nc will move SE and out of
the area later this morning. Cool high pressure will build overhead
Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will cross the area on
Saturday, before much cooler and drier air arrives on Sunday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 405 am Wednesday...

based on recent sfc METAR and radar observations, wavy frontal zone
and associated area of showers is on the verge of exiting the
southern coastal plain counties. However, the broken stratiform rain
band associated with the right entrance divergence region of the 130-
140 kt upper jet streak will result in another 6 to 9 hour window of
intermittent light rain chances as it shifts sewd through the
morning commute.

In it's wake, post-frontal dry air advection will lead to NW to se
clearing throughout the day. The stronger CAA will be delayed until
the arrival of the stronger sfc pressure rises Wednesday
evening night. As such, most areas will still seasonable-near normal
temps this afternoon. Highs ranging from lower 70s north to mid 70s
south. Strong CAA overnight will drive overnight lows as a 1035mb
surface high over the mid ms and ohio valley begins to spill east
into the region. Lows ranging from lower 40s NW to upper 40s near 50
se.

Short term Thursday and Thursday night
As of 405 am Wednesday...

cold dry air advection will persist through at least the first half
of the day on Thursday as the strong +1030mb surface high continues
to build east, becoming centered over the vas and carolinas Thursday
night. With low-level thicknesses progged to be 30 to 35 meters
below normal, highs Thursday will be a good 10 degrees below the 30
year avg for mid october. Under full sun, highs ranging from upper
50s near 60 north to mid 60s south.

Good radiational cooling with the high directly overhead Thursday
night will support chilly overnight lows in the upper 30s north to
lower 40s south. It's possible a few sheltered locations across the
northern piedmont could cool off into the mid 30s with some very
patchy light frost possible.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 350 am Wednesday...

upper-level ridging will quickly give way to a troughing type regime
in the eastern conus, which is expected to prevail through the the
middle of next week. At the surface, a cooler and drier continental
area of high pressure will drift eastward into the atlantic ocean on
Friday, allowing southerly flow and a WAA regime to fill in ahead of
a cold front, likely to pass through central north carolina Saturday
early afternoon. Behind the front, another cool and dry high
pressure settles in through the middle of next week.

Friday pm through Sat pm: by Friday evening, southerly flow will
return briefly ahead of the cold front digging south out of the ohio
valley. This will allow temperatures to rise gradually, beginning
during the day Saturday morning in the lower 50s before topping out
near 70 with a blanket of clouds overhead. The rather impressive
cold front will introduce rain showers as early as pre-dawn
Saturday, with the bulk of the rain arriving Saturday mid afternoon,
likely clearing the coastal plain around dusk. While lift and shear
values look impressive with this frontal passage, instability will
be severely lacking, likely limiting TS chances to east of i-95.

Sunday through Wednesday: skies will begin to clear under a caa
regime pre-dawn Sunday, with some gusty northwesterly downslope
winds likely across central nc. High pressure will become anchored
overhead by Monday morning, allowing temperatures to fall into the
upper-30s to low 40s before sunrise. This will bring about the first
threat of at least patchy frost across the northwestern piedmont of
nc. Temperatures early next week will remain 7 to 10 degrees below
normal, topping out near 60 degrees across the north, with a 70
degree reading or two possible by mid week across the coastal plain.

Some uncertainty exists late Tuesday into Wednesday, as a shortwave
is expected to rotate the base of the trough, spreading a
reinforcing cold front through the area. With this passage, the gfs
brings a surge of moisture to spread northeast into central nc by
Tuesday evening, allowing widespread showers to accompany this
front. However, most other model solutions keep this frontal passage
a tad weaker, and much drier. Have tended to introduce very low
pops no QPF at this time, as the cp airmass should climatologically
be hard to dislodge at this point.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 200 am Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: quasi-stationary frontal zone oriented west-east
across southern portions of the area will push south of the area by
12 to 15z. Models show low-level dry air spreading in behind the
front between 06 to 09z at kint and kgso, 09 to 12z at krdu and krwi
and 12z to 15z at kfay. This will bring an end to precip chances,
while also marking a return toVFR conditions. Continued post-
frontal dry air advection will result in nwly wind gusts of 10 to 18
kts, highest at kgso and kint.

Long term: expect predominatelyVFR conditions through Friday.

Sely return in advance of a cold front from the west will bring
a threat for fog stratus late Friday night early Saturday morning.

A cold frontal passage through the area on Saturday will bring
the next chance of of rain showers and associated sub-vfr conditions
to the area.VFR conditions will return Saturday night and into
early Sunday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Badgett haines
near term... Cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Jjm
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi59 minN 08.00 miOvercast65°F64°F100%1018.2 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi70 minN 04.00 miHeavy Rain68°F68°F100%1017.6 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi70 minno data7.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F62°F100%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmNW3N5NE7NE5E63NE5NE5CalmNE4NE8NE6E3SE6CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5SW8SW9W14SW11SW12SW11SW7CalmCalmS7S7S6S6SW5SW5SW7SW7SW6
2 days agoNE4NE4NE5NE5E4E33N4NE4E5E3NE3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmS4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Wed -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:03 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:05 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:11 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.70.50.30.20.30.60.91.11.21.21.10.80.60.40.20.20.30.50.91.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.