Wednesday, August22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

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Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:56PM Wednesday August 22, 2018 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:41PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 220221 rra
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1021 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A lead shortwave trough and sfc front will traverse central nc
overnight, followed by the passage of a secondary upper level trough
and cold front through the area late Wednesday. High pressure will
then build into the region to close the work week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 pm Tuesday...

a mid upper level trough will traverse east through the area
overnight. Accompanying modest synoptic scale h5 falls on the order
of 20 meters, in concert with dpva along the lead vorticity shear
axis crossing the area will support a broken band of convection
through the area through ~09z. Bulk of model guidance suggest that
owing to increasing sfc based inhibition, from nocturnal cooling
over the next few hours, this convection will as it advances east
into the central piedmont and coastal plain counties. Will
keep highest(likely)pops across the western piedmont through 03z,
with pops decreasing to chance slight as you push east. The severe
and flooding threat is winding down as well, with an isolated strong
to severe storm possible across the far western zones through
midnight, before aforementioned bl stabilization ends the threat.

Overnight lows 70 to 75.

Short term Wednesday and Wednesday night
As of 312 pm Tuesday...

Wednesday, the l W trough will rotate through the region accompanied
by a sfc cold front. This feature will lie immediately west of our
region Wednesday morning, then drift across the area during the day.

This feature interacting with available moisture and modest
instability will trigger scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, primarily along and east of highway 1. NW flow behind
the front will usher a stable drier air mass into central nc. This
will be noted by sfc dewpoints lowering through the 60s across the
western piedmont during the afternoon.

A more notable surge of drier air will occur Wednesday night with
dewpoints by early Thu in the 50s, with lower 60s across the far se.

Under clearing skies and a steady NW sfc wind, overnight
temperatures should range from the lower 60s NW to the upper 60s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 230 pm Tuesday...

a much quieter pattern will setup in the extended with below normal
temperatures and precipitation expected through the middle part of
the weekend. Towards the end of the extended global models are
showing the heat returning to the area. The last couple of runs of
the gefs, geps, and eps have all show anomalously high 500 mb
heights.

Thursday morning surface high pressure will build into the region
with a potent upper level trough axis located overhead. 850 mb
temperatures behind the front fall towards 12 degrees c while 1000
850 mb thicknesses also fall below 1400 m. This will support high
temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. The air mass itself will also
be much drier and the difference will be noticeable. Pwats are
forecast to fall to around 0.65" (or below the 10th percentile for
this time of year) and with clear skies dewpoints will likely mix
out into the upper 40s in places (esp. Towards the triad).

Friday morning, low temperatures will dip into the 50s for most
areas as the upper level trough axis moves east and the best
ageostrophic convergence moves overhead. High temperatures look
very similar Friday as compared to Thursday with low level
thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures remaining near identical.

Friday evening into Saturday the remnant energy from the upper
level trough axis will pinch off and drop southwest with another
upper level disturbance approaching from the west. Pwats will
remain around 0.75" Saturday though and will be slow to
moderate. So even though upper level lift will pass north of the
region, the area should remain dry Saturday.

Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will begin to quickly increase allowing
highs to climb into the mid to upper 80s. Pwats will also be on
the increase Sunday (esp. Towards the triad and coast) which
will allow the chance of showers and thunderstorms to enter back
into the forecast. The chance looks low and will be primarily
confined towards the piedmont and coastal plain.

Monday into Tuesday a mid-level ridge will begin to setup over north
carolina and allow 90 degree temperatures to return to the area. The
chance of precipitation looks low these days, but this can easily
change given the uncertainty in the strength of the ridge.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 700 pm Tuesday...

shower and storm coverage across central nc has been rather subdued
so far Tuesday evening. Still expecting a slight increase in
coverage around sunset with a gradual down trend through the
overnight hours. Have adjusted arrival times slightly with this
package, with storms arriving between 00z 03z at kint kgso, between
02z and 04z at krdu, with vcts further east where where uncertainty
remains higher.

A sfc cold front will approach from the west Wednesday, and cross
the region late Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Ahead of the
front, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur ahead of
the boundary. Otherwise expect MVFR low endVFR ceilings across the
region Wednesday morning as boundary layer moisture remains high.

Can't rule out a quick dip to ifr lifr too, especially if a site
gets hit by overnight showers storms enhancing sfc available
moisture.

Drier more stable air mass will overspread the region from the west
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will initiate a prolonged period
ofVFR parameters Wednesday night through Sunday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Cbl
near term... Cbl
short term... Wss
long term... Haines
aviation... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi61 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1013.3 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi82 minSSW 310.00 miFair77°F73°F89%1013.5 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi62 minno data10.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S4S3CalmS3S4SW7SW10SW8SW8SW8SW11SW12SW14SW12SW12SW12SW12SW9S5SW10SW8SW14SW6
1 day agoS7SW7S4N6NE3S4N3NE53SW4SW3W5W53N3NE3NE3NE3CalmNE3CalmS5S5SE7
2 days agoW7SW6W7W4SW6SW4SW4W4W4SW8SW6SW7SW6SW10S9S9SW9SW6CalmS4SE4N65SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Wed -- 01:14 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.41.20.90.70.50.20.10.20.50.81.11.31.31.10.80.50.30.100.10.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.