Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:01PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 2:07AMMoonset 4:37PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 181525
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1125 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A weak surface trough will hold over eastern north carolina today,
while a second stronger trough sits over western north carolina. An
upper level disturbance and accompanying weak surface cold front
will cross the region from west to east late this afternoon through
tonight. The front will stall out over the coastal carolinas on
Saturday, as weak high pressure builds over the western and central
carolinas through the weekend.

Near term today through tonight
As of 1125 am Friday...

1130 am update... Current forecast in good shape as skies morning
stratus and fog has eroded and skies have largely cleared allowing
lots of insolation. Temperatures have responded accordingly and now
range in the mid to upper 80s in most locations, except across the
far northeast piedmont and coastal plain where clouds persisted the
longest and the temperature recovery was delayed. Heat index values
exceed 100 in many locations already and the heat advisory looks
good.

Cumulus is begining to develop in the across the northern and
northwestern piedmont. Still expect a few showers and storms to
develop in this area and the coastal plain this afternoon before the
main area of convection associated with the approaching front and
upper trough approaches later this afternoon and evening. -blaes
previous forecast...

latest model output and observed trends support increased odds of
organized storms later today through this evening, particularly over
the northern piedmont. But confidence in convection coverage through
the first half of the day is less certain.

The current surface map shows a subtle boundary sitting along
eastern nc just inland from the coast, and a second more distinct
trough along the eastern edge of the foothills. An area of drier air
noted on water vapor imagery is currently moving across central nc,
mainly along and south of highway 64, limiting clouds and any
potential for elevated convection early this morning. But this will
soon give way to increasing moisture and dynamic forcing for ascent
as a shortwave trough extending from pa through E ky E tn moves in
from the west this afternoon. Models depict fairly early
destabilization today given the rapid mixing with heating and very
warm 925 mb temps. MUCAPE is expected to rise to 1500-2000 j kg in
the east by midday, increasing further to 2000-3000 j kg late. Deep
layer bulk shear, as was the case yesterday, remains fairly low at
15-20 kts, but is projected to rise slightly late today across the n
and NW as the trough approaches.

Areas of stratus and patchy fog this morning should mix out and
disperse by late morning, and the heating along with high dewpoints,
especially in the east, should prompt convection by midday. But
given the dry air preceding the trough, the coverage may be limited
and focused near the eastern trough where weak low level mass
convergence will reside, and in far NE sections where moisture will
be a little better. Following the latest hrrr runs, which depict
this scenario fairly well, will have small chance pops over the far
ne (va border) and along the eastern coastal plain through early
afternoon. Areas well east of i-95 will likely see a bit better
coverage given the mid level lapse rates well above 6 c km.

Later today, with the arrival of the better moisture, steep lapse
rates through a deep layer (7-7.5 c km in the low levels and 6-6.5
c km in mid levels), and dynamic forcing for ascent with both mid
level dpva and upper divergence, expect scattered to numerous
showers and strong storms, with the greatest coverage across the
northern piedmont and northern coastal plain very late afternoon
through evening. A few severe storms are possible, mainly north of
highway 64, if the deep layer shear can surpass 20-25 kts. Damaging
winds would be the greatest threat, with a secondary hail risk.

With strong heating and mixing in most places today, low level
thicknesses 15-20 m above normal, 925 mb temps perhaps exceeding
27c, and dewpoints holding in the mid 70s if not higher, heat index
values will likely approach or exceed 105f in many areas outside of
the triad and va border counties. Will have a heat advisory in place
for the triangle region and points south and east today from noon to
6 pm. Expect highs of 91-96.

The incoming front should jump into the piedmont trough and progress
east and southeast overnight, with storms pushing into the SE cwa
and decreasing in coverage late. Expect lows from 71 NW to 76 se.

May see some light fog in the SE late. -gih

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 345 am Friday...

much quieter day with the surface frontal zone and mid level shear
axis pushing to our SE and weak surface high pressure building in
from the west. A drier column with warm and subsiding mid levels
will result in mostly sunny skies NW and partly sunny se, where
enough low level moisture will remain to foster flat convective
cumulus, topped with lingering mid level moisture streaming over
eastern nc. Will retain low chance pops only in the SE sections,
with dry weather elsewhere. Thicknesses dip slightly but remain near
or just above normal, so expect highs of 89-94. Fair Sat night with
no pops. Lows 69-73. -gih

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 310 am Friday...

Sunday will begin with a frontal zone along the nc coastline and
continental high pressure moving into the area from the northwest.

This should give us very low precipitation chances for Sunday and
keep flow very stagnant over the area with very little forcing aloft
or at the surface. A similar pattern in place for Monday but the
offshore surface high becomes a bit more dominant, meaning southerly
return flow increases and potentially some more clouds and shower
activity but lagging continental high to the north should keep us
relatively dry and hopefully keep cloud cover suitable enough for
eclipse viewing.

The piedmont trough should be more active on Tuesday and coupled
with a few shortwaves moving in from the southwest, will result in a
slight increase in precip chances on Tuesday afternoon but still
only lower end of the chance range. On Wednesday a stronger surface
low in the northern stream will bring a cold front to central nc and
with it, our best chances for rain for the week. This front will
linger over the eastern part of the state through Thursday, keeping
precip chances higher in the east. Expect temperatures in the low
90s through the period until Thursday when the front will drop temps
back into the mid 80s.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 630 am Friday...

vfr conditions are expected for much of today through tonight at
most central nc terminals, with a few exceptions. At rwi, periods of
ifr conditions, primarily ifr CIGS with MVFR to ifr vsbys, are
expected early this morning, through around 13z-14z, after which
time these low CIGS will quickly mix and disperse toVFR. Scattered
storms are possible near fay rwi early today, starting as early as
15z with the potential lasting through the afternoon, although they
will remain scattered and not a prevailing condition. More numerous
showers and storms are expected starting after 19z at int gso,
spreading eastward to rdu then to rwi fay during the 21z-05z time
frame. MVFR to ifr conditions with very heavy rain and strong gusty
and erratic winds are possible with any of these showers and storms
later today into early tonight. Any lingering showers will be
diminishing soon after 06z as a front passes to our east and weak
high pressure builds in from the west.

Looking beyond 12z sat, MVFR vsbys in fog are possible early sat
morning at rdu rwi fay and early Sun morning at rwi fay. But
otherwise,VFR conditions and dry weather are expected Sat through
much of Mon with only a small chance of afternoon showers near fay.

The chance of late-day storms and early-morning fog returns late mon
into tue, as the air mass over nc becomes increasingly hot, moist,
and unstable. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening for
ncz025>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Blaes hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi36 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy92°F75°F58%1012.8 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi42 minS 610.00 miFair90°F78°F71%1013.5 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi82 minN 05.00 miFair with Haze82°F77°F84%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS6S6S8SE7SE7S10S6S6S5S6S5S6S4S3S4S4S3SW6SW6SW54SW6W8
1 day agoNE6N5NE4E6NE6E4E6E5SE3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW9S8W4
2 days agoSW5W9W6W55CalmNW44E5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4CalmNE3NE4N5E7N6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 12:38 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:09 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.51.41.20.90.70.50.20.10.20.611.21.41.31.10.80.50.30.1-0.10.10.51

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.