Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:57PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:17 PM EST (19:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:40PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 151900
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
200 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the northwest today then stall over
our area through the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems
move across the region.

Near term through tonight
As of 1125 am Friday...

overview: a shortwave trough compact upper low crossing the great
lakes into southern new england will drive a sfc cold front, that's
currently approaching the central and southern appalachians, into
central nc, in back-door style, late this evening and through the
overnight hours. A series of shortwave perturbations embedded within
the quasi-zonal flow aloft across the southern conus, the most
significant of which will cross through the area between 12 to 18z
Saturday; consequently will induce a weak surface wave along the
front as it settles south across the area.

Today: with the exception of the far NW piedmont, measurable rain
chances with this system will hold off until after 00z. However, a
broken overcast alto cumulus stratus layer that's currently
approaching the triangle will steadily spread east through the
afternoon. This mid-cloud deck will temper afternoon insolation,
especially across the nc piedmont counties. Highs today ranging from
lower 60s NW to lower 70s se.

Tonight: initially, precip will be light along the southward sinking
front. However, strengthening low-level moisture convergence in
response to the surface low tracking east into the area will result
in categorical pops and moderate rainfall overspreading the area
from the west. Additional lift will be supplied aloft in a region of
divergence due to a 150kt jet moving into the tn valley.

Temperatures expected to remain mild south of the front, primarily
south of highway 64. Across the north, cooler air will begin to
advance southward prior to daybreak. By early Saturday, expect
temperatures to vary from the mid 40s across the far north to the
mid 50s across the south.

Short term Saturday and Saturday night
As of 355 am Friday...

sfc cold front will continue to glide southward, potentially exiting
our southern counties prior to mid day. A sfc wave along the front
will exit the coastal plain by early afternoon. Weakening lift and
the advection of a drier low level air mass will lead to rain
showers dissipating in coverage during the afternoon. Circulation
around the departing sfc wave and high pressure building in from the
nw will maintain a low level NE flow, leading to falling
temperatures throughout the day. Most locations across the north
half will likely see their daytime high temperatures around
daybreak. Across the south, some recovery may occur in the
morning before temperatures fall during the afternoon.

Saturday night, anticipate variably cloudy skies with some clearing
possible across the far north-northeast underneath a strengthening
low level dry air ridge. Weak overrunning may cause some patchy
light rain or drizzle occur across the southern piedmont overnight.

Low level cold air advection will continue, sending temperatures
down into the low-mid 30s across the north, and the mid-upper 30s
across the south.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 200 pm Friday...

a persistent, generally wet and unsettled pattern is in store for
most of the long term period. The main features of this pattern
include an upper ridge centered over or just east of the bahamas, a
moist wsw mid and upper flow around this ridge and over the
carolinas, and a cad ridge anchored over the piedmont which will be
occasionally and briefly interrupted by the passage of a series of
cold fronts. In general, this pattern will favor high-chance and
even likely pops during much of the long term period, with qpf
estimates of 1-3 inches of rain from Sun through fri. The best
chance for any pause in this wet pattern may be late Monday into
early Tuesday as we briefly see some drying in the wake of early
Monday's cold fropa. Otherwise, temps should be warm enough this
entire period to preclude any p-type concerns other than rain,
except for a "very brief" period Tuesday night when forecast
soundings over our western piedmont counties suggest it may be
barely cold enough for a "very brief" period of wintry mix with the
rain. Of course we'll be evaluating that potential during the coming
days, but for now, expecting most if not all rain as p-type during
this time.

Temps during the long term period will be largely dependent on where
you are in relation to the cad and timing and positioning of the
cold front and rain episodes. Generally speaking though... Look for
the coolest readings across the triad during cad and wet times, and
warmest across our SE zones when the warm front or the wedge front
will be positioned north west of those zones.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 115 pm Friday...

there is a high likelihood thatVFR parameters will persist across
central nc through 00z Saturday. Otherwise, gusty swly winds of 20
to 25 mph will diminish during the late afternoon early evening.

A sfc cold front will drop through the area between 00 to 12z
Saturday. Initially precip will be light and patchy, but will fill
in with a period of moderate across the area between 09 to 15z
Saturday as a wave of low pressure tracks east along the front.

Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR between 00 to 06z and then
ifr and potentially lifr Saturday morning. Rain showers will taper
off from the west during the afternoon. Aviation conditions may
briefly improve Saturday evening through early Sunday as a drier air
mass filters into central nc from the north. However, another round
of MVFR ifr ceilings appears probable Sunday afternoon into Monday
as another low pressure system approaches from the southwest.

Adverse aviation conditions are expected to linger through midweek.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Cbl wss
short term... Wss
long term... Np
aviation... Cbl wss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi27 minSSW 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast66°F48°F52%1008.8 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi23 minSSW 15 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F48°F49%1009.5 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi38 minS 14 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F46°F52%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6SW8S6SE5S7S9S8S8S9SW7S9SW5S10SW4SW9S10SW8SW6SW9SW10SW19
G23
SW10SW14SW14
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1 day agoW14
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W11W10
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W5W5SW7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW33SE4SE3SW7
2 days agoCalmE3N4N3N64
G23
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G17
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W15
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G25
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G21
W16
G22

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:51 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:53 PM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.60.30.10-00.10.611.31.41.41.20.90.70.50.30.10.10.20.611.2

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.