Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:14 AM EDT (14:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 1:01AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 211119
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
720 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
A back-door cold front will drift southward and will stall near the
va and nc border this evening and tonight, before quickly lift back
north into va on Friday. Otherwise, a trough of low pressure will
linger across central nc through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am Thursday...

closed upper low digging SE into the lower ms valley will briefly
reinforce the mid upper level ridge axis extending north over the se
us today, before finally getting displaced and shunted east off the
se coast this evening and overnight. Convectively enhanced vorticity
impulses, currently across western tn, will eject east ahead of the
upper low, and is progged to arrive into the western piedmont by
late afternoon early evening, before crossing the area overnight.

Around the same time, the slow-moving quasi-stationary cold front
over the mid-atlantic is forecast to sag south to near the va
border.

Initially, expect convective coverage to be fairly isolated with
storms firing up INVOF of the lee side trough and instability axis
in place across central nc. But then coverage pops is expected to
increase during the late afternoon and evening hours, especially
across the northern third of the forecast area as the vort
disturbances interact with the southward sagging cold front. Deep
layer shear of 25-30 kts will bring a marginal risk of severe
storms, with the potential for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in
the deepest strongest updraft cores. Storm intensity should
gradually weaken with nocturnal stabilization.

However, with both the disturbances tracking east through the area
and the frontal zone close by, rain chances could persist through
the overnight hours.

Highs today will range from near 90 north to mid 90s south. MAX heat
indices of 100 to 103 across the southern counties look like they
will far just short of the 105 degree advisory criteria. As such,
will forgo any advisory issuance with this package, but will put a
mention in the hazardous weather outlook. Overnight lows in the 70s.

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 400 am Thursday...

closed low over the lower ms valley will lift NE into the ohio
valley and lower great lakes regions Friday and Friday night.

Meanwhile the stalled frontal zone near the va border is forecast to
quickly lift back north into va as a warm front Friday morning,
leaving all of central nc in the warm sector.

With the front now north of the area, and with models showing drier
air aloft spreading east into the area, models are showing less
convective coverage compared to yesterday, suggesting more in the
way of scattered coverage Friday afternoon. Have lowered pops from
likely to good chance 40-50 across the area. With central nc on the
se fringes of the enhanced cyclonic flow aloft, deep layer shear of
25 to 35 kts, strongest in the west, could support a few severe
storms.

Highs ranging from upper 80s near 90 north to lower 90s south. Lows
in the 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 350 am Thursday...

broadscale troughing in the east will continue for the first half of
the long term period as a mid latitude closed low weakens into an
open wave over the great lakes region. By the middle of next week,
the northern jet returns to canada allowing a rather abrupt reversal
to ridging across the SE conus, with some early indications of a
carolina coastal low development Wednesday into Thursday.

At the surface, a front will continue its journey north through the
mid atlantic, bringing a decrease to shower storm chances by
Saturday afternoon evening. Southerly southwesterly flow
reestablishes late weekend ahead of a cold front, which is expected
to increase pops and drag S sewrd through the region Monday, with a
cooler and drier area of high pressure wedging south along the
appalachians by Tuesday morning. Some significant uncertainty
introduces itself to the forecast at this point, with models trending
wildly through the end of next week. The 00z GFS can models indicate
the formation of a sfc low off of the nc sc coastline on Wednesday,
which lingers through the end of the work week, interrupting the
cooler airmass. Meanwhile, the ecmwf, which has been more
consistent, has no such feature, keeping a stronger area of high
pressure off of the NE CONUS through the weekend. For now, splitting
the difference, keeping low end pops across the east Thu fri, and
notching temps up a degree or two, but high bust potential here.

Temperature wise, expect a warming trend Sat and Sun as the first
frontal boundary retreats north, allowing a gradual
warming moistening trend to take hold. This will allow temps in the
low 90s Saturday afternoon, with mid to upper 90s possible on
Sunday. Afternoon highs will likely be throttled a bit on Monday
thanks to leftover convective clouds associated with the cold front,
which should pave the way for high temps mostly in the mid to upper
80s Tue Wed thu. Lows over the weekend will drop into the low to mid
70s, with a few 60 degree readings possible Tue and Wed mornings.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 720 am Thursday...

patchy shallow fog resulting in sub-vfr visibilities will quickly
burn off-scour out between 12 to 13z.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon and evening, that could potentially linger well into the
overnight hours as a back-door cold front sags south near the va
border. The greatest concentration of convection is consequently
likely to occur from near and north of the piedmont sites, ewd to
rwi. Ifr-MVFR conditions in low clouds and or fog could develop on
the cool side of that front, over NRN and nern nc and va; and some
of these conditions may edge as far swd as rwi Fri morning.

Outlook: expect mainly scattered diurnal convection Friday through
the weekend. A cold front moving through the area Monday-Monday
night will result in higher rain chances.

Climate
Max temperature and high-minimum temperature records...

gso:
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 21 100 1933 75 1924
06 22 100 1914 75 1981
-------------------------------------
rdu:
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 21 101 1933 75 1933
06 22 100 1981 78 1933
-------------------------------------
fay:
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 21 105 1933 84 1928
06 22 101 1990 84 1928

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Cbl
near term... Cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Jjm
aviation... Cbl
climate... Kcp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi84 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1009.8 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1009.8 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi80 minno data10.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr564E6SE536SW11SW10W5SW4W3N3SE4S4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3SW3
1 day ago6NE8NW656
G15
W55W8W5W4W3CalmSW4E8NE7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE43N4
2 days agoNE445NW5N65E7CalmNE65CalmCalmSW6SW4SW4SW6SW5SW4SW4CalmSW45W44

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:52 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:36 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.210.70.50.200.10.40.81.11.31.41.210.70.50.30-0.10.10.50.91.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.