Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday April 18, 2019 8:44 AM EDT (12:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:07PMMoonset 5:26AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 181039
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
640 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure will extend westward into the carolinas, while
a quasi-stationary front begins to return north through the delmarva
peninsula Thursday and Thursday night. Strong southerly flow will
become enhanced ahead of a strong low pressure system and related
cold front that will cross the region late Friday and Friday night.

Near term today through tonight
As of 410 am Thursday...

intermittent upper-level clouds will continue to spread across the
area through pre-dawn Thursday with broad scale upper-troughing
establishing aloft and surface high pressure continuing to inch
further offshore into the middle atlantic. Otherwise, should remain
a rather quiet morning with little to no sensible weather impacts
across central nc thanks to ample dry air in place from 500mb to the
surface. Light southerly flow continues across much of central north
carolina during the overnight hours, with in-situ observations
persistently showing a 4 to 8kt surface wind. Skies should remain
partly to mostly sunny for the first half of the day with an
increasingly aggressive WAA regime establishing by mid to late
afternoon. This should allow for intermittent gusts after sunrise
with more persistent gustiness throughout the afternoon, evening,
and into the overnight hours as the southwesterly low level jet
kicks in. Expect gusts 20 to 25kts to be commonplace by sunset
Thursday, persisting at least intermittently into the overnight
hours with some localized stratus development possible primarily
after midnight.

High temperatures will be comparable to yesterday (upper 70s, low
80s), with maybe a degree or so shaved off thanks to the continued
waa moistening trend at all atmospheric levels. Lows overnight will
remain rather mild, bottoming out in the low to mid 60s, possibly
threatening a record high minimum temperature value or two (rdu: 67
(1896); gso: 66 (2002); fay: 67 (2002))

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 410 am Thursday...

Enhanced risk for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening...

confidence continues to grow with respect to severe weather
potential Friday afternoon and evening. With the latest day 2
update, the storm prediction center has expanded the enhanced risk
(3 of 5) further west, now encompassing just about all of our
forecast area. Primary threats remain be damaging winds, hail, a few
tornadoes, and flash flooding. Now is the time to finalize emergency
plans and ensure that you have a safe place to go if when severe
weather threatens.

A strong mid to upper level trough is expected to deepen overnight
Thursday into Friday morning with a rapidly strengthening area of
low pressure beginning to migrate north and east out of the lower
mississippi valley. East of the low and associated cold front, a
rapidly increasing pressure gradient will work to enhance southerly
flow east of the appalachians, further enhancing the WAA regime, and
likely initiating a few pre-frontal convective showers and storms in
two primary areas (1) along the southeastern facing slopes of the
appalachians via upslope flow, and (2) across the eastern sandhills
and coastal plain. Some uncertainty remains on the coverage and
impact of these showers ahead of the main line of convection, likely
to march east of the mountains between 12z 8am - 18z 2pm Friday,
impacting the triad region shortly after (15z 11am - 20z 4pm), the
triangle between (18z 2pm - 00z 8pm) and points along and east of
interstate 95 through roughly 04z 12am.

Environmental conditions ahead of the front look dangerous to say
the least, with efficient enough instability (1000 - 1500 j kg ml
cape), dangerous model shear (bulk: 45 to 55kts; sfc -> 1km: 20 -
30kts) and helicity values, and near record pwat values (1.5 inches
+). Assuming at least some surface heating is allowed between the
waa pre-frontal showers, the environment looks prime for a very
active weather day across the carolinas. A quick overview of each
threat is below.

Winds: first, ahead of the primary frontal passage, strong southerly
flow will become enhanced thanks to a rapidly tightening pressure
gradient. This will allow for some pretty impressive southerly
surface wind values, especially along and east of us-1. These areas
could easily see sustained southerly winds in the 20s (kts), with
persistent gusts as high as the mid 30s low 40s. A wind advisory may
need to be considered over the next few forecast periods. In terms
of the front convection impacts, damaging winds will remain the
primary and most widespread impact thanks to the likely linear
predominant storm mode. The strongest cells will likely be capable
of producing wind gusts as high as 60 to 70mph, with locally
stronger gusts possible in a wet-microbursts type regime.

Hail: with only modest mid to upper-level lapse rates present, large
hail 1"+ shouldn't be commonplace. However, with the parent low not
too far displaced from the region, and the possibility of some
sustained updrafts, can't completely rule out a few storms capable
of producing some isolated quarter to half-dollar sized hail stones.

Tornadoes: models continue to spit out some alarming low and mid-
level shear values which, if realized, would easily support the
formation of a few tornadoes across our region. Still some
uncertainty on favored locations at this point, likely dependent in
large part to surface heating ahead of the line and the eventual
strength and placement of the meso-low and attendant triple point.

For now, best helicity values seem to be centered across the
southern sandhills and coastal plain counties. This will need some
massaging as the event nears, however, having a plan in place just
in case a tornado warning is issued on Friday afternoon and evening
is certainly advised.

Flash flooding: with seasonably high precipitable water values
present and already saturated soils abundant across central nc,
flash flooding will certainly be a concern again with this system,
especially in and around urban centers. The weather prediction
center has placed most of central nc in a slight risk (2 of 5) for
excessive rainfall. Areas that see training storms will be of
primary concern. Eventually, the 1 - 1.5 inch areal average QPF with
this system will transition into the already swollen rivers lakes,
likely causing additional or at least prolonging river flooding
across central nc into the weekend. This is generally supported by
both GEFS naefs ensemble river forecasts, with additional flooding
especially likely along the neuse and haw rivers through the
weekend, possibly lasting into next week.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 330 am Thursday...

Saturday and Saturday night: closed upper low over the southern
appalachians will jog slowly NE across the carolinas and virginias
Saturday through early Sunday. As the core of the cold(-20 to to -22
c) temps aloft pivots NE moves through the area, isolated to widely
scattered showers are expected Saturday and into Saturday night,
with the best coverage expected across the northwest and northern
piedmont in proximity to the deeper moisture. Given the core of the
cold temps centered over the area and lingering cloud cover moisture
it will be much cooler on Saturday. Highs ranging from upper
50s near 60 NW to mid upper 60s se. It will be breezy as well with
gradient winds of 20 to 25 in the mixed layer. Lows Saturday night
in the mid 40s.

Sunday through Wednesday: lingering clouds moisture will give way to
increasing sunshine from SW to NE during the day on Sunday as the
mature low begins to lift NE and away from the area. We will see one
last day of below normal temps on Sunday before the return of warm-
above normal highs in the 80s early next week as ridging aloft and
low-level southerly return flow re-establishes across the SE us.

Significant rain chances look to hold off until late in the work
week with yet another vigorous storm system taking shape across the
southern plains lower ms.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 640 am Thursday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR conditions will persist across central nc
through the majority of the TAF period. The exception would be the
brief development of some MVFR CIGS after 06z 12am Thursday evening,
spreading from SW to NE across the forecast area. Otherwise,
primarily a wind wind gust forecast thanks to high pressure
continuing to slide offshore and an increasingly tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the primary cold front set to pass through Friday
afternoon evening. Expect gusts to begin with mixing after sunrise
and continuing through much of the day, including after sunset
Thursday night into pre-dawn Friday. Gusts at times reaching as high
as 25kts will be possible.

Looking ahead: the development of a low level jet --with swly winds
around 40 kts between 1500-2000 ft-- may result in marginal low
level wind shear conditions Thu night, despite the likelihood of the
aforementioned mixed and breezy boundary layer. MVFR ceilings are
expected to lift toVFR through Fri afternoon, immediately preceding
the arrival of a line or two of showers and storms containing
widespread 35-50 kt winds, locally 65 kts, and a few tornadoes, fri
afternoon-night. -mws

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Jjm
near term... Jjm
short term... Jjm
long term... Cbl
aviation... Jjm mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi54 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast61°F55°F81%1017.2 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi60 minS 410.00 miFair59°F57°F94%1017.6 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi65 minS 410.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW7SW4SW7SW74S8SW11SW7W6SW6SW6SW5SW5S6SW8SW7SW6SW5SW5S5S5S5SW6
1 day agoNE53NE4Calm4S63SW10W8SW10SW10SW8S7SW9SW8SW9SW8SW5SW7SW5SW4SW4SW5SW5
2 days agoW15
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5N3545NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:33 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:38 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.11.41.61.51.310.70.40.1-0.1-00.40.91.31.51.51.310.80.50.2-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.