Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:04PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:32 AM EST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 220915
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
415 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will gradually weaken tonight and Friday,
allowing a backdoor cold front to stall in the vicinity of northern
nc on Friday, before retreating north as a warm front Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 410 am Thursday...

today: unseasonably warm conditions associated with the persistent
strong subtropical ridging centered off the south atlantic coast
will support another day of record setting warmth across central nc.

Much like yesterday, morning stratus will initially temper daytime
heating, with eventual lifting and scattering of the stratus deck by
late morning and into the early afternoon. Afternoon highs again in
the mid 70s NW to lower 80s se. Additionally, will see some
occasional wind gusts into the mid to upper teens, especially during
the afternoon.

Tonight: shortwave energy rounding the crest of the subtropical
ridge over the ohio valley and northern mid atlantic states will
weaken dampen the subtropical ridge just enough to allow the
northern end of the wavy frontal zone to sink slowly south through
central and southern va by the evening, and will attempt to move
into northern portions of the state tonight Friday morning. The nam
remains the most aggressive in pushing the front through the
northern half of the CWA by daybreak, while the GFS and ec stall the
front near the nc-va border, before quickly retreating north as a
warm on Friday.

Spotty showers will be possible along the front, with the shallow
cool air making for a very sharp north-south temp gradient in
overnight lows, ranging from upper 40s lower 50s NE to near lower
60s south.

Short term Friday and Friday night as of 410 am Thursday...

low confidence in Friday's forecast across central and northern
piedmont and coastal plain.

Challenging forecast give the model discrepancy in the location of
the back-door cold front Friday morning, with the NAM indicating a
brief reprieve from the anomalous warmth, at least across the
northern half of the forecast area, via a shallow in-situ wedge
north of the boundary. Meanwhile, the GFS and ec stall the front
briefly along the va-nc border, keeping all of central nc in the
warm sector. Huge bust potential wrt forecast highs Friday. If the
nam is correct, northern areas will struggle to get out of the 50s
with some patchy drizzle possible through the first half of the day.

Meanwhile, areas south of the front will once again warm into the
mid to upper 70s. Am not ready to go quite that cool across the
northern piedmont, but have certainly trended towards the cooler
guidance. Conversely if the GFS and ec verify, all of central nc
will see another day of near record warmth with mid 70s to lower 80s
everywhere.

Lows Friday night ranging from mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 330 am Thursday...

an unsettled pattern returns by the weekend, as a surface low is
expected to strengthen across the central great plains states
Saturday and eject northeast through the great lakes region on
Sunday. This will push an associated cold front through central
north carolina Sunday and Sunday night before stalling it along the
carolina coast Monday. This front will re-introduce showers to the
area as early as Saturday afternoon in the form of light pre-frontal
showers, with the best coverage of rain, including the possibility
of a rumble of thunder, arriving Sunday afternoon and evening as the
front progresses through.

Another wave will intensify along the front Monday and Monday night,
spreading an additional wave of precipitation into the area. Some
uncertainty here on just how far west this precipitation will
spread, with some significant differences in the ECMWF gfs
solutions. The european solution tends to spread a greater amount of
qpf inland, mainly due to a much slower progression of the original
front, while the GFS keeps the bulk of the precip east of interstate
95. For now, have kept pops higher in the southeast and lower in the
northwest for this time period.

High pressure builds in Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday
keeping the area drier and temperatures much closer to normal for
this time of year. The high will push offshore Wednesday afternoon
ahead of a developing southern stream system set to introduce
another round of rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 1252 am Thursday...

24-hour TAF period:
southerly return flow between the offshore high pressure and a cold
front approaching from the NW will continue to support an
unseasonably warm and humid airmass, which will be prone to
widespread stratus development, with MVFR generally between 06z and
09z Thursday, then subsequently dropping to ifr lifr between 09z and
15z, with the best chances at kfay, then krwi and less so at krdu,
kgso, and kint. Generally expect clouds to scatter out with bases in
the 2-4 kft range by Thursday afternoon, though there is a chance
kint and kgso terminals could stay broken into the afternoon. South-
southwesterly winds will persist through the period, generally 5 kts
or less overnight and 5-10 kts during the day Thursday.

Looking ahead: a backdoor cold front will settle into at least
nrn nc late tonight Friday morning, roughly along or
just north of us highway 64. This boundary will result in a more
prolonged period of ifr-MVFR ceilings along and north of it through
most of the day fri. Thereafter, a persistence forecast of late
night-morning stratus and fog, lifting and scattering to high MVFR-
lowVFR each afternoon, will generally continue through the weekend.

The next chance of rain will accompany a frontal zone that will
settle into and possibly stall over the carolinas late Sun into
early next week.

Climate
Rdu records:
date | high year | high min year
------------------------------------------
02 22 75 1897 60 1897
02 23 79 1980 57 1962
02 24 81 1982 58 1985
gso records:
date | high year | high min year
------------------------------------------
02 22 74 1925 57 1980
02 23 74 2017 52 1922
02 24 79 1982 55 1985
fay records:
date | high year | high min year
-------------------------------------------
02 22 77 2003 56 1989
02 23 80 1922 55 1922
02 24 83 1930 60 1975

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Cbl
near term... Cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Jjm
aviation... Cbl mws
climate... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi41 minSW 118.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F64°F97%1029.9 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi52 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1030.5 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi37 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast63°F62°F100%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW6SW8SW8SW11SW16W10SW12W7SW13SW7SW5S4CalmSE4SE4S9S8S8SW8SW8SW7SW7SW11
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3SW4CalmSW4W5SW3W75W4CalmCalmSE3S5S7S7S6S6S6S7SW9SW8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 02:27 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:15 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.1000.30.81.21.41.41.31.10.80.50.30.20.10.10.50.91.21.31.31.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.