Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

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Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:34PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 7:13 AM EDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 180917
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
517 am edt Tue jun 18 2019

Synopsis
Beneath occasionally and weakly perturbed west southwesterly mean
flow aloft, and on the western periphery of bermuda high pressure,
an appalachian-lee trough will linger over virginia and the
carolinas through Wednesday night. A much stronger trough aloft and
cold front will cross the region Thursday and Thursday night.

Near term through tonight
As of 445 am Tuesday...

a flash flood watch has been issued for portions of the NW nc
piedmont (forsyth and guilford co.) from noon today through 6 am
wed.

Ongoing convection over the NW piedmont has already produced up to
two to three inches of rain there during the past several hours.

With the likelihood that showers and storms will again concentrate
over that region with similar rainfall amounts this afternoon
through tonight, and with 1 to 3 hrly flash flood guidance values of
only 1.75" to 2.25", respectively, flash flooding may result. It was
(strongly) considered to extend the ffa swd into davidson co., where
similarly heavy rain has already fallen this morning, so the day
shift can re-evaluate and coordinate that possibility.

A shortwave trough over the mid and lwr ms valley this morning,
which includes a former closed mid-lvl cyclone now centered near the
mo bootheel, and another vorticity MAX over swrn ms ERN la, will
migrate ewd across the tn and oh valleys today, and carolinas and
srn middle atlantic region tonight. Related 20-30 meter mid level
height falls will spread across the SRN appalachians this afternoon
and evening, then toward the coastal areas by Wed morning. Lastly, a
couple of mcvs evident in regional radar imagery over w-cntl nc this
morning will track newd across cntl and sern va through midday, then
across the chesapeake bay through early afternoon.

At the surface, a northern stream front was analyzed at 08z, from
the NRN middle atlantic states wswwd across cntl oh, SRN in il, and
srn mo; and this feature is forecast to remain quasi-stationary
through tonight. Another boundary was analyzed from SRN tx and srn
la newd to where it roughly coincides with an appalachian lee trough
analyzed from the lee of the SRN appalachians nnewd through the wrn
carolinas, WRN va, and md. A myriad of outflow boundaries were
present across the oh and tn valleys, and into w-cntl nc, the latter
of which has been well defined in radar and surface observational
data over the nc piedmont this morning - most recently from near
stanly co. Newd to granville co.

It remains unclear how influential that outflow boundary will be
regarding the redevelopment and focus for convection developing in-
situ over cntl nc by early to mid afternoon, or if convection will
instead develop just upstream --along mesoscale forcing circulations
along the blue ridge, the lee trough, and upstream outflow-- and
subsequently move ewd into the nc piedmont late this afternoon and
evening. In either case, marginally strengthening mid-lvl flow into
the 25-30 kt range, and an again-strongly-heated (into the upr 80s
to mid 90s) and moderately unstable environment over cntl nc, will
favor the maintenance of multi-cells with strong to locally damaging
wind gusts during the late afternoon and evening hours. Marginally
severe hail may result owing to the presence of modest mid-lvl lapse
rates around 6-6.25 c km and moderate instability. There remains a
signal in convection-allowing guidance for convection to re-
generate persist over the NW and perhaps NRN nc piedmont overnight,
as the larger-scale forcing accompanying the shortwave trough
overspreads the region, and interacts with an increasingly moist
environment characterized by precipitable water values around 2
inches, and lingering surface convergence along both the lee trough
and lower predictability outflow boundaries. Locally two to three
inches of rain may result; and this will increase the risk of
flooding in those areas.

Persistence low temperatures in the upr 60s to lwr-mid 70s, and with
a good chance of stratus, are otherwise expected overnight.

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
As of 510 am Tuesday...

the trough aloft forecast to cross the carolinas tonight will
linger, with considerable mid and high level moisture cloudiness,
early wed, before moving ewd and offshore. A period of low amplitude
shortwave ridging will likely ensue over nc for much of wed-wed
night, between that trough and a much stronger one forecast to
amplify across the ms valley, and atop a lingering appalachian-lee
surface trough.

The presence of the foregoing low amplitude ridging aloft will
likely result in reduced convective coverage relative to tue.

However, persistence heat and humidity and an associated weakly
inhibited and moderately unstable environment over cntl nc, and with
the lingering presence of the lee trough and old outflow, scattered,
disorganized (pulse multi-cell) convection will probably result.

Given the lack of larger-scale forcing, it should be more diurnal in
nature than previous days, and yield to a dry overnight, with
persistence low temperatures again in the upr 60s to mid 70s.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 515 am Tuesday...

Thursday morning an upper level shortwave will be starting to get
its act together and deepen across il in. Latest runs of both the
gfs and ECMWF have the resultant area of surface low pressure
deepening to around 995 mb over the ohio valley by Thursday
afternoon with much of central nc quickly destabilizing. The catch
here is the likely cap in place around 800 mb. Both the NAM and gfs
forecast this, but both show some cooling by Thursday evening. The
main DCVA and associated 500 mb height falls with this system are
forecast to remain across va md and va, but do slightly nudge into
central nc. Along the base of the shortwave in the upper levels flow
will strengthen placing central nc in a rrq. Surface to 6 km shear
values are forecast to be around 35 kts in the evening hours. If the
cap is able to erode, ml CAPE is forecast to be between 1500 to
2000 j kg. The current thinking is that the upper level support will
be sufficient to break the cap in places Thursday evening with some
storms becoming strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts and hail
appears to be the primary threats at this time. It should be noted
that the potential for severe weather Thursday evening will be
dependent on previous days convection and the eventual track of the
shortwave.

Thursday evening into Friday morning a weak surface cool front
will swing through central north carolina as the shortwave exits the
east coast. The ECMWF brings in slightly drier air than the gfs, but
the trend appears to be that the break will be transient. Low level
thermal profiles behind the cool front drop off slightly, only to
quickly rebound Friday afternoon. For example, 850 mb temperatures
Thursday evening ahead of the front are around 20 degrees c. By
Friday evening both the ECMWF and GFS have 20 degrees c 850 mb
temperatures right across the border in south carolina pushing east
into the area. Due to this have raised high temperatures Friday into
90s for the southern half of the CWA with upper 80s forecast for the
northern zones.

Saturday through the remainder of the extended precipitation
chances will return to the forecast as moisture rich air quickly
moves in from the southwest. The big question at the end of the
extended deals with height rises expected across central nc. In
particular, mid- level ridging is forecast to move over the area
Sunday into Monday, but multiple shortwaves rounding the
ridge axis are forecast to traverse central nc. For now have
kept above normal temperatures here with slight chance to chance
pops.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 220 am Tuesday...

ongoing convection over the NW nc piedmont, including int and gso,
may persist for another couple of hours, as a couple of associated
mid-level disturbances move newd and interact with a surface
boundary there. Otherwise, the presence of bermuda high pressure
will maintain a 6-12 kt swly surface wind, strongest with diurnal
heating, along with seasonably moist low levels that will present a
risk of early morning stratus mainly at fay around 12z this morning.

Additional showers and storms are likely to develop with diurnal
heating by early this afternoon and persist through early tonight,
with the largest and longest coverage expected over the piedmont,
particularly int and gso. An isolated to widely scattered cell will
be possible throughout cntl nc, however.

Outlook: a persistence forecast of late night-early morning stratus
and mainly afternoon-evening showers and storms will exist through
thu night, with the former (stratus) maximized Wed morning and the
latter (convection) maximized thu-thu night, followed by a
drier air mass and mainlyVFR conditions fri-sat.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch from noon edt today through late tonight for
ncz021-022.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Mws
long term... Bah
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi22 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1015.9 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1016.9 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi33 minSSE 310.00 miFair72°F69°F94%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS3SW6SW9SW12SW9SW8SW7
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G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.40.91.31.51.61.51.210.70.40.1-00.20.50.91.11.21.210.70.50.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.