Friday, December14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:03PM Friday December 14, 2018 11:47 PM EST (04:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 11:45PM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 150308
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1010 pm est Fri dec 14 2018

Synopsis
A wave of low pressure will track from the lower mississippi valley
along the coast of the carolina's tonight and Saturday. The system
will move off the mid-atlantic coast Saturday night. An upper level
disturbance will cross the central appalachians and northern nc
Sunday. This will be followed by high pressure Monday into Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1010 pm Friday...

a flash flood watch remains in effect for all of central nc
through Saturday afternoon...

regional radar mosaic shows a significant break gap in the precip
shield associated with the mature low pressure system lifting ne
through the deep south has materialized across sc and nc. Rainfall
amounts with the initial surge have ranged from a quarter to half
inch across the northern piedmont, half inch to an inch across the
central piedmont, and with as much as 1 to 1.5" across the sandhills
and southern coastal plain counties, maximized along the inland
retreating wedge front and a steady ribbon of dpva along a northward
lifting S W disturbance.

After a 3 to 5 hour precip minimum, the approach of the mid upper
level low into the southern appalachians will bring the next round
of moderate to heavy rain into the area between 06 to 12z, via
increasingly diffluent flow aloft and the next batch of shortwaves
dpva, and atop enhanced renewed moisture transport INVOF the
developing secondary sfc low moving through the eastern carolinas.

Central and eastern portions will remain poised to receive the
heaviest rainfall amounts, with another 0.50-1.0" expected, possibly
higher across the far SE zones, where precip could have some
embedded convective elements.

Complex surface pattern featuring a meandering wedge front across
central nc will lead to a wide range in temps overnight. Temps
across the far NW piedmont, firmly under the influence of cad, will
remain nearly steady overnight, in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Across the central nc, we will likely see a see-saw temps across the
area, rising through the first half of the night, and then falling
during the pre-dawn hours as the wedge front jogs back to the east.

Finally the far eastern zones will see a slow steady rise overnight.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 240 pm Friday...

areas of dense fog... A top the slow melting snow (nw-n piedmont)
and saturated ground... Will become the main weather hazard Saturday
into Saturday night.

Additional heavy rain on Saturday should be limited to the morning
hours and mainly over the areas east and south of the current
melting snow pack region of nw-n nc. Since most of this heavy rain
will fall east of the most critical region of the NW piedmont, major
flooding is not projected at this time. Minor flooding is expected,
but had the heaviest rain hit the snow pack regions it would have
been far more of an issue.

The region is not totally clear from some mostly minor flooding
potential until the final wave low pressure (slated to track along
the wedge or coastal boundary Saturday), moves ne. This will shut
down the heavy rain potential, pulling the stable cad wedge air mass
south and east to the interstate 95 and 74 corridors of eastern and
southern nc Saturday afternoon and evening.

With the cold air damming and residual cool and stable pool
over the interior areas, widespread low overcast and areas of
fog over the piedmont. Areas of dense fog are likely given the weak
surface winds expected. These "wedged in" conditions will likely
spread from the piedmont into the coastal plain during the afternoon
and evening as the wedge boundary moves back toward the coast (after
the low pressure passage Saturday). High temperatures Saturday
should occur in the morning in east with readings likely falling
back into the 50s by late day. Elsewhere, a cool and damp day is
expected with little temperature recovery (upper 40s to mid 50s from
nw to se).

Areas of dense fog and some drizzle Saturday night are expected.

Some showers are still possible especially in the NW zones were the
mid upper low will be approaching from the tennessee valley region
late. Temperatures should remain in the 40s to lower 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night, models seem to be in good agreement with
the timing and track of the mid upper low from the tennessee valley
eastward, close to the nc va border region Sunday. It appears the
south and east sections of nc may very well break out into partly
cloudy skies during the afternoon. This would lead to warmer
temperatures in the 60-65 range from wadesboro and rockingham to
fayetteville and goldsboro. There is a chance that the piedmont will
finally have the low stratus fog scour out, but plenty of mid and
upper level cloudiness and a chance of showers will persist until
the mid upper low passes during the afternoon. Highs in the 50s are
expected (these may need to be raised if the track of the mid upper
low is faster and or more over va than northern nc).

Expect partial clearing Sunday night on the backside of the low
pressure. There may be some fog again if the boundary layer does not
mix out completely (delayed cold frontal passage). This appears most
likely down east given current forecasts of lowering dew points into
the 30s with a westerly flow increasing overnight. Lows generally in
the mid 30s to mid 40s NW to SE by Monday morning.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 205 pm Friday...

finally, as high pressure builds overhead Monday, much drier and
sunny conditions are expected with highs in the 50s (lower 60s
se). This will be followed by a dry cold front Monday night. Chilly
temperatures will return on Tuesday through Wednesday night as the
cp high pressure builds from the ohio valley to over nc. Lows
generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and highs in the upper 40s
to mid 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The next chance of rain appears to be late Thursday into Friday.

However, model spread remains enough to keep likely pop out of the
forecast for now. We will carry chance pop of rain late Thursday
into Friday given the model blend consensus of a system track from
the northern gulf of mexico NE toward eastern nc and va.

High confidence in rain as the p-type given the progressively moving
high pressure offshore before the precipitation arrives .

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 727 pm Friday...

through 00z Sunday: currently seeing widespread ifr and many lifr
reports across central nc attm, all thanks to the wet storm system
affecting the region. This evening's 00z gso sounding shows
saturated mid and low levels. Meanwhile, forecast soundings show
very little change the next 24 hours... Nearly saturated near-sfc
layer at all 5 of our TAF sites through the TAF period. Thus will
continue ifr, or lifr in some cases, through the TAF period. Wind
direction will depend on which side of the wedge front you're
located, but in general look for NE winds for kint kgso, E SE for
fay, and variable at rdu rwi which will be fairly close to the
aforementioned boundary.

After 00z Sunday: ifr conditions will continue through Sunday
morning, then flight conditions will gradually improve during the
daytime Sunday as low level winds shift to NW as the storm system
exits the area. VFR conditions are then expected through the middle
of the week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch from 1 pm est this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for ncz007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-
083>086-088-089.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Cbl
short term... Badgett
long term... Badgett
aviation... Np


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi57 minNW 30.25 miFog55°F55°F100%1016.3 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi58 minN 010.00 miOvercast61°F60°F100%1015.6 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi68 minno data1.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F100%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE3NE3CalmCalmN4N3CalmNE4NE4CalmNE5NE4NE7N4E9E9E8E104SE9
G17
E4E8NW3
1 day agoCalmCalmSE5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW4SW3SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3NE3SW3CalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S4S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:46 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:29 PM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.10.10.30.611.11.11.10.90.70.40.20.10.10.20.611.21.31.31.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.