Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM   Moonset 2:06 AM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 1039 Pm Edt Mon Apr 15 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure remains offshore today while a backdoor cold front approaches from the north and moves through the area tonight. This front will then lift back north as a warm front tomorrow. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 160537 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains offshore today while a backdoor cold front approaches from the north and moves through the area tonight. This front will then lift back north as a warm front tomorrow. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 1045 PM Monday...The back door cold front is currently over the Delmarva peninsula and northern VA, making its way south. Ahead of the front, a line of strong thunderstorms and showers are making its way south, encroaching on the NC/VA border at the time of this update. Southerly flow ahead of the front is rapidly switching to northwesterly behind the front.
The front will slowly continue moving south, but as we get into tonight, convection becomes less favorable due to a lack of daytime heating and an inversion allows a stubborn 300 J/kg of CIN to develop. The more unfavorable environment as the storms approach the CWA will result in rapid weakening, with the most likely outcome being scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder for northern most counties and waters. As the showers which enter northern portions of the CWA around 3Z struggle to sustain themselves moving south, they break down further and dissipate altogether by 6-8Z, leaving the southern two-thirds of the CWA rain free. While unlikely, if these storms find a way of sustaining themselves despite the diminishing instability, mid- level lapse rates around 8C, ample bulk shear (~45 kt), and impressive DCAPE (~1300 J/kg) are enough to bring forth strong to severe wind gusts and small hail concerns. If severe storms are able to persist, the best chance will be north of HWY 264 between 03-06Z with chances decreasing as the line moves farther south.

Once the convection dies out, debris clouds will hang around overnight and help keep us mild with lows in the low-60s across the CWA

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
As of 8 PM Monday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion
As of 4PM Monday
The backdoor cold front pushing through tonight will lift north as a warm front tomorrow. Highs will push well into the 80s again for the coastal plain while the OBX will remain around 70. The warm front will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon with greatest chances (15-20%) across the coastal plain.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Mon... A fairly active pattern is on tap this week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this weekend.

Tue and Wed... Upper ridging will push east across the Mid-Atlantic on Tue and eventually off the coast by Wed while a weakening trough lifts NE'wards from the Central CONUS into the Great Lakes Tue into Wed. Mid level shortwave will track along this upper ridging passing across the Carolinas Tue evening with a second shortwave moving across the area on Wed. At the surface stalled frontal boundary across the southern half of the CWA will gradually lift N'wards Tue evening as a warm front. As this front lifts N'wards ample moisture will combine with increasing lift to result in isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Tue afternoon and evening with this activity lifting to the north of ENC by early Wed morning as the front moves out of the area. As the second shortwave moves across the Mid-Atlantic on Wed another round of isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible as a surface trough sets up along the Coastal Plain. At the same time a weakening cold front will be approaching from the west as well nearing the area by late Wed night. Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs generally in the low to mid 80s with temps nearing 70 along the SOBX.
Temps wilL be much cooler along the NOBX on Tue behind the stalled boundary as NE'rly flow will bring a cool maritime airmass over the region with temps rebounding on Wed into the 70s as SW'rly flow quickly returns.

Thurs into next weekend... Some minor tweaks to the forecast given the latest trends as it now looks like multiple fronts will be impacting the area to end our week. Weak upper trough quickly transits across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with zonal flow overspreading the area this weekend. A second stronger trough then approaches from the west at the start of next week. At the surface cold front sweeps through the area Thurs morning once again bringing a chance for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Thurs evening before we dry out on Fri.
Yet another frontal boundary impacts ENC Sat afternoon into Sunday bringing a chance for more widespread precip this weekend. Otherwise temps generally remain above avg into this weekend before cooling off behind the second frontal passage on Sat.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 135 AM Tue...High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Backdoor cold front is currently across central VA and will gradually make its way south across the terminals through 12z as winds gradually veer from southwesterly to northerly. Late this afternoon, sea and sound breezes become dominant and flow veers easterly. Some convection could potentially develop west of the terminals and encroach coastal plain terminals just before 00z, but stabilizing effect of sea and sound breezes will likely result in showers/storms quickly collapsing. Therefore, kept VCTS out of forecast this morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with the only chances for sub VFR conditions being within any shower or thunderstorm that makes its way into ENC Tue afternoon and evening and again on Thurs.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...SW winds at 10-15 kt will persist until a gust front moves through the region over the next couple of hours from the north, and a back door cold front follows through early this morning. The train of boundaries will make winds variable over night, gusting near 25 kts at times, particularly for northern waters and sounds. The predominant flow behind the backdoor cold front will result in winds quickly switching to become more northeasterly. The gust front has been handled with a Marine Weather Statement valid till 1215 AM Tuesday. Seas between the capes are expected to remain at 4-5 ft for much of the night, decreasing to 3-4 feet by Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 510 AM Mon... Cold front will stall along the southern periphery of our waters in Tue keeping the gradient light and allowing winds to generally remain around 5-10 kts across all waters. WInds to the south of the front will be SE-E while to the north wind direction will be NE-E. Front lifts north as a warm front Tue night bringing a threat for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as shifting the winds to a S-SW direction at 10-15 kts. Winds increase slightly to 15-20 kts out ahead of an approaching cold front with winds then shifting THur night behind the front back to a N'rly direction.
Seas across our coastal waters generally remain around 2-4 ft through the period, occasionally getting to 5 ft along the Gulf Stream waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Mon -- 01:21 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:47 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
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Duck Pier
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Mon -- 01:16 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:58 PM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
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Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

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