Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:48PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 8:26 AM EDT (12:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:21PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 638 Am Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain with isolated tstms this morning, then rain and scattered tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered tstms. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241053
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
653 am edt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis
A slow moving, deepening low pressure system will move across
the southern mid-atlantic states today and tonight, bringing
widespread rain and gusty winds. The low will move northeast
Wednesday and push a cold front through the area Wednesday
night. Several weak disturbances will affect the area late
Thursday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 645 am tues... The latest surface analysis shows the low
pressure system located over ga sc border, with a warm front
extending to the east to around CAPE fear. Moderate to heavy
rain has reached the western zones at this hour, with convection
developing along CAPE fear and moving north towards the southern
coast. The warm front is expected to push north over the next
couple hours, advecting more buoyant, moist, air into the cwa.

Convection will continue to develop as we head through the
morning, with heavier rain lasting through the afternoon,
especially over onslow, duplin, and carteret counties, where
some minor flooding will be possible. Convection and heavy rain
will shift further to the north and east from late morning
onward. Overall 2-3 inches of rain will fall over the coastal
counties including the outer banks, and further inland more like
1-2 inches. There could be some isolated spots in onslow and
carteret counties with close to 4 inches of rain due to training
of storms, as indicated on the 00z SPC href ensemble forecast.

Later today, the focus shifts to some strong to severe
thunderstorms developing, as drier, but still buoyant air works
in as the low pressure passes to the north. MUCAPE values will
rise to 1500-2000 j kg across the CWA this afternoon and
evening, with decent shear values. Low level SRH values will be
moderate to high, so a brief tornado is possible (however fairly
unlikely).

Temperatures are currently very mild in the upper 50s to mid
60s, and will remain fairly similar towards daybreak. Some
clearing after mid morning will allow for temperatures to
warm into the low 70s over southern and western portions of
eastern nc, and the upper 60s elsewhere.

Winds are expected to pick up by morning, blowing 25-35 mph,
with gusts to 40-45 mph along the coast. Wind advisory remains
for carteret, obx dare, and obx hyde.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 335 am tues... Some scattered thunderstorms are likely to
persist through the evening hours and into tonight, mainly east
of hwy 17. Have indicated this in the grids with pops trending
down from west to east. Isolated showers are possible across the
northern tier and outer banks overnight, and will keep a chance
pop in for that. Low temps will again be mild, with lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 330 am Tuesday... Weakening upper low just west of area
early Wed will move east across area during the day, then will
be followed a dampening short wave trough Thu night into early
Friday and then a stronger trough Saturday. This will keep
isolated to scattered shower threat in forecast that period,
then dry high pressure will build in Sat night into Monday.

Wednesday through Saturday... Upper trough energy and pw around 1
to 1.25 inch support chance pops for scattered shower threat
mainly Wed and again Thu night into Friday with mainly slight
chance pops for isolated activity rest of period. Some model
differences on surface low development with short wave Thu night
into Friday with GFS stronger with inland low while ECMWF and
nam support weaker low near coast. Temps near or slightly below
normal during period with lows mainly 50s and highs low-mid 70s
inland and 65-70 coast.

Sat night through Monday... Stronger upper trough passage with
associated cold front will bring in slightly cooler and drier
air mass during period, with some inland lows in 40s and highs
around 70.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through Wednesday morning ...

as of 645 am tues... A mix of ifr and MVFR conditions are present
across the airspace, as the rain continues and will be heavy at
times through the morning and afternoon. Ifr conditions have
been transient so far, but think the best chance for a prolonged
period will be from the start of the TAF period though late
morning. This afternoon, enough breaks in the clouds will allow
MVFR conditions to take hold, however there will be a threat for
scattered thunderstorms as well.VFR conditions are expected to
return by this evening.

Strong SE winds 20-30 kt winds with gusts 35 kts, are expected
through this afternoon. There will also be some llws 40-50 kts
around 2000 ft which could cause problems at local airports.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... Conditions will improve to mostlyVFR
through period, but the threat of isolated to scattered showers
will continue each day with a possibility of brief sub-vfr
conditions.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 340 am tues... Gale warnings for the coastal waters south
of oregon inlet, pamlico sound, and inland rivers are ongoing or
set to begin early this morning. Elsewhere small craft
advisories ongoing.

Wind have increased to ese 15-20 kts north of CAPE hatteras,
and 20 to 30 kts to the south. Expect winds to continue to
increase, becoming SE 25-35 kts late this morning, and then
slowly decreasing during the afternoon and evening. By tonight,
winds will be S 15-25 kts. Seas are currently 6-12 feet across
the coastal waters with the highest values over the southern
waters. Seas will continue to increase today, and peak around
noon south of CAPE hatteras at 12-18 ft, and further north peak
this evening around 10-15 ft. Seas will then decrease tonight,
and subside to 8-12 ft overnight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... .Slow moving surface low will finally be
moving N of waters during the day Wed but will produce period of
sw winds 15-20 kt ahead of associated cold front that will move
through Wed evening. Winds shift briefly to northerly behind
front early Thu but then some model differences with handling of
next surface low results in low confidence forecast of winds
rest of period. GFS indicates deepening surface low moving sw-ne
well inland of area Friday which results in moderate to strong
s-sw winds over waters. ECMWF and NAM indicate weaker surface
development along coast with stronger winds remaining offshore.

Models do agree on stronger front moving through late Saturday
followed by decent surge of northerly winds Sat night. Given
model differences, leaned to blend of superblend and previous
forecast for thu-sat period.

Elevated seas will gradually subside below 6 ft Wed night into
thu, then generally 3-4 ft rest of period but low confidence
forecast for thu-sat per above.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 am Tuesday... Se winds are increasing over the area as
expected with tightening pressure gradient ahead of surface low
to w-sw. Persistent period of SE winds 25-35 kt during the day
will result in a number of coastal impacts. Minor coastal
flooding will be for areas adjacent to the pamlico sound and
rivers. Wind will funnel water up the pamlico river, leading to
possible minor flooding up through the town of washington.

Minor coastal flooding, beach erosion, and overwash will be
possible through tonight for areas along the immediate coast.

Rough surf, dangerous shore break, and a high rip current risk
are expected along the beaches.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz047-
080-081-093>095-098.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

High surf advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for ncz103-104.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for ncz103-104.

Wind advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for ncz095-103-104.

High surf advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for ncz095-098.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for amz136-137-158.

Gale warning until 9 pm edt this evening for amz135-156.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for amz130-
131.

Gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for amz150.

Synopsis... Sgk
near term... Sgk
short term... Sgk
long term... Jbm
aviation... Jbm sgk
marine... Jbm sgk
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi39 min E 18 G 20 56°F 54°F1021.8 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi45 min E 9.9 G 15 56°F 56°F1021.5 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 47 mi27 min 52°F5 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi52 minESE 8 G 167.00 miDrizzle61°F58°F92%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E8E8E9
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1 day agoE8E7E6E6E7NE7E8E11
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2 days agoN3NE6S6S6S5SE5SE6SE5E9E11E8E5SE6SE6SE6SE4SE3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:07 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:50 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:06 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.63.23.43.32.92.21.40.60.20.10.411.82.63.13.232.51.710.40.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:14 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:03 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.53.23.43.332.31.50.60.100.30.81.62.42.93.132.51.810.40.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.