Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:59PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 1:28 AM EST (06:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:48AMMoonset 10:05PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1214 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am est this morning...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers. With a chance of tstms late. Patchy fog.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 130541
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1241 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will cross the area tonight. A cold front
will then move through late Tuesday followed by high pressure
Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will affect the area
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will ridge into the region
this weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1230 am Tuesday... Precipitation has been increasing in
coverage over the past couple of hours, especially near the
coast, as strengthening surface low pressure moves along the
south carolina coast. Convection has flared up off the south
carolina coast and some concern with increasing shear (se
surface winds and 850 mb winds of 50+ knots) and forecast cape
values approaching 1000 j kg over the next few hours, that a
severe weather threat is possible with some isolated tornadoes,
especially near the coast, but extending inland to perhaps the
highway 17 corridor.

Another concern will be for the potential for heavy rainfall
with 1-2 inches, locally up to 3 inches possible. This could
produce some minor flooding of low-lying areas. With strong
low-level warm air advection, temperatures will likely remain in
the 60s over most of the CWA overnight with lower 70s near the
coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Wednesday
As of 300 pm Monday... The low pressure system will lift ne
tomorrow, while the cold front moves through late morning.

Models continue to show rain during the morning, and then
redeveloping again as the secondary cold front pushes through.

Temperatures will be warm in the morning with highs in the low
60s inland to the low 70s along the coast, then gradually
decreasing during the day.

Long term Wednesday through Tuesday
As of 3 pm mon... Active weather will continue into the second half
of the week. Then, drier and cooler air will move in Friday and
remain into the weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Some uncertainty remains with the
timing of the cold frontal passage late Tuesday, but it is expected
to make it through the area and offshore by the late night hours.

There is significant disagreement amongst global models with regard
to the amount of WAA moisture advection that will occur ahead of the
front, with some models, including the GFS and nam, trending much
drier. Have opted to trim pops late Tuesday to account for the
uncertainty, through high end chance to low end likely pops remain
Tuesday evening. High pressure will build into the area behind the
front, resulting in a mainly dry and cool day Wednesday. Gusty winds
(especially for coastal areas) will ensue Wednesday
afternoon evening as low pressure developing across the deep south
works with high pressure across the northeast to tighten the
gradient locally.

Thursday... The afore mentioned low will travel up the east coast
Thursday, brining another soggy and breezy day. There remains some
uncertainty in the timing track of the low, but confidence has
increasing in the impacts locally, with rainfall moving in early
Thursday, and Thursday Thursday night being very wet. At least
minor, localized flooding issues are possible given the already wet
soils and the potential for a couple of additional inches of
rainfall.

Friday through Sunday... As low pressure departs the area, it will
drag a cold front off the coast Friday morning, with cooler high
pressure building in behind it. High pressure will continue to ridge
into the area this weekend, however cooler conditions are expected.

High temps Friday will reach the low to upper 60s, with mostly 50s
likely for the weekend. Lows will dip into the 30s inland, but look
to remain above freezing, while remaining in the low to mid 40s
along the coast.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through 06z Wednesday ...

as of 1235 am Tuesday... As precipitation increases across
eastern nc over the next few hours, ceilings should lower with
widespread ifr conditions developing. These conditions should
continue through the day. Convective threat with strong winds
during the early morning hours should evolve to a more showery
scenario by mid-morning. Strong low-level shear is likely
through the early morning hours with gusty SE winds at the
surface and 850 mb winds at 50+ knots. Ceilings may briefly lift
to MVFR during the afternoon, but then fall again after dark per
guidance.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 4 pm mon... The threat for ceiling and visibility
restrictions will persist into Tuesday night as a cold front
works across the area.VFR conditions will return Wednesday, but
be short-lived as ifr conditions are likely as low pressure
impacts the area late Wednesday through Thursday night.VFR
conditions return Friday.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 1240 am Tuesday... No major changes to the marine forecast.

Winds will ramp up over the next several hours as surface low
strengthens along the sc coast. Winds are already gusting to 33
knots at diamond buoy and 25 knots off of ocracoke. Winds peak
early this morning. Gale warnings remain in effect for the
coastal waters and pamlico sound, with seas building to as high
as 10+ feet. SCA continues for the remaining waters with
frequent gusts above 25 knots likely. Winds will slowly diminish
through the day Tuesday, as seas will response as well, but
remain above 6 ft.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm mon... Winds will remain below SCA criteria, though
6 ft seas may persist across the coastal waters, Tuesday
evening. Winds and seas will increase Wednesday ahead of an
approaching low and remain elevated, with very dangerous boat
conditions expected as low pressure passes near the waters
through at least Thursday night. Winds will approach gale over
the coastal waters Wednesday afternoon and evening, with gusts
near or over 30 kt possible through late Thursday. Conditions
should begin to improve Friday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 am est this morning for amz130-
131-136-137.

Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz135-150-152-
154-156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Bm
long term... Sgk cb
aviation... Ctc cqd cb
marine... Ctc cqd cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi41 min ESE 15 G 18 64°F 61°F1018.4 hPa
FRFN7 45 mi149 min 3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi47 min SE 11 G 15 66°F 59°F1018.6 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 46 mi29 min 61°F4 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi49 minESE 11 G 147.00 miRain62°F60°F94%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmN5N4N3N4N4NE5E9SE9E9E4E4E5E6E7E6E6E6E7E7E7E12
1 day agoN5N4N5N5N6N5N8N8NE11
G15
NE6NE5NE5N5NE3NE3E3E3NE4NE3N3NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:38 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM EST     3.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:28 PM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.21.61.10.70.711.52.22.93.33.53.32.92.31.61.10.80.711.52.12.62.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:41 AM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:00 AM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.21.71.20.90.811.422.73.33.53.32.92.41.71.10.70.70.81.21.82.42.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.