Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:19PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:36 PM EDT (02:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:12AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1014 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230210
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1010 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region
early next week and become stationary.

Near term through Sunday
As of 10 pm Saturday... Made only minor adjustments to the
forecast for a bit slower cooling this evening in the hourly
temperature trends and to drop the pops. Upper ridging continues
across the area with high pressure anchored offshore and weak
surface trough inland. It will be another warm humid
night... With lows only 76-80 degrees. Organized convection
currently remains well north of the area over the mid- atlantic
region. While a few models show a chance of some precipitation
later tonight, like the gfs, the majority of models including
hrrr and high res nmm and arw keep the CWA dry with an MCS over
the mid- atlantic weakening as it moves SE tonight and
dissipating before reaching the forecast area.

Short term Sunday night through 6 pm Sunday
As of 315 pm sat... Weak surface low will move through the mid-
atlantic and ne, while high pressure remains anchored off the se
coast with troughing inland. Looks like one more oppressively
hot and humid day Sunday with heat index values 105-109 degrees.

Low level thickness values and 850mb temps around 20c support
highs in the mid upper 90s inland and upper 80s low 90s along
the coast. Will issue another heat advisory for all counties
except outer banks hyde.

Spc has the northern half of the area outlooked in a marginal
risk, with a sliver of slight risk over the albemarle sound and
northern outer banks. Shear seems to be the limiting factor with
0-6 km bulk shear less than 15 kt. Forecast soundings show very
unstable atmosphere with mu CAPE values 4-5000 j kg, LI values -8
to -11c. Expect generally pulse type storms, though if convection
were to become organized could see storms with strong winds
develop.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 3 pm Saturday
the forecast remains in good shape with a trend
toward slightly "cooler" weather and increasing chances for rainfall
through much of the upcoming week.

Sunday night Monday... The main players of the week will be a
disturbance now southeast of winnipeg that will help to establish a
trof over the northeast us. This trof will help to push a frontal
boundary that is now over the mid atlantic toward our area Monday,
and this feature will impact us through much of the upcoming week.

The disturbance just mentioned will be making its way through
the lower great lakes Sunday evening. This southward progression
will be just enough to push the shower thunderstorm threat that
has remained well to our north the past few days, into our
area. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe storms
Sunday night into the norther half of our forecast area, with a
slight risk now just touching the very northern part of our
area. The end result will be an increasing trend in thunderstorm
chances from 30% Sunday evening, to near 60% Monday evening as
a cold front gets closer to our area. The best 0-6 km bulk shear
values remain well to our north but strong instability could
support damaging wind threat either day. Pwats or precipitable
water values also high with locally heavy rain the other main
threat. With the increased cloud cover and rain threat, along
with slightly lower thickness values temps will be 2 to 4
degrees "cooler" than this weekend.

Tuesday Wednesday... With a cold front near or over our area Tuesday,
this appears to be another day with a decent shot (60%) of
thunderstorms through most of the area. Model trends have been a
little slower and not as far south with the passage of the cold
front. This will keep the risk for storms around again Wednesday,
with the highest chances across the far south in closer proximity to
the front.

Thursday and beyond... While the trof in the northeast us lifts out
and heights build in that area, an elongated weakness in the
heights aloft will remain over the carolinas. At the same time
the remnants of the frontal boundary mentioned above will
remain, with a new front approaching by early next weekend. This
will result in daily chances for thunderstorms and near normal
late july highs of around 90 inland, and 80s along the coast.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 730 pm Saturday... PredominateVFR conditions expected
through the period outside of convection. Only a chance of an
isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening, mainly across the
northern area. Widely scattered to scatters thunderstorms will
be possible Sunday afternoon evening.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm sat... Cont mainlyVFR Mon thru thur however will
have better coverage of shra tsra from time to time resulting in
a few pds of subVFR. The best chance for this would be Monday
and Tuesday afternoon evening. Weak front drops thru later tue
and stalls over southern sections wed... Could see some lower
cigs assoc with the front and some late night fog.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 10 pm Saturday... No changes with this update. Latest
observations continue to show SW winds 10-20 kt with gusts to 25
kt across the pamlico sound and central waters, and seas 2-4
feet. High pressure will continue offshore with troughing inland
through the period continuing the S to SW flow. Moderate S sw
winds 15-25 kt will continue into Sunday, with seas building to
4-7 feet (south of oregon inlet). Brief period of frequent gusts
to 25 kt for the waters north of oregon inlet this evening,
with SCA continuing for the pamlico sound and coastal waters
south of oregon inlet into Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm sat... Ssw winds of 15 to 25 kts will continue
Sunday night thru Monday evening between offshore high pres and
front trf to the w. These winds will lead to seas of mainly 4
to 6 feet outer central and SRN wtrs. Small craft advisory
remains in effect thru Mon evening per ocnl gusts AOA 25 kts and
6 ft seas. Again preferred wave watch over nwps with sustained
winds of 20-23 kts in a southwest flow more supportive of waves
up to 6 feet and not much higher.

As front gets closer later Mon night winds and seas will slowly
subside. The front will drop thru NRN half of region later tue
into Tue night then stall and weaken a bit Wed over SRN tier.

Expect NRN wtrs will see a period of light onshore E to NE winds
behind front Tue night into Wed while SRN tier will cont with
mainly S to SW winds but shld be light. Seas will subside to 2
to 3 feet all wtrs wed. As the front lifts northward again over
the waters later Wednesday and Thursday, south to southwest
winds return and remain generally 5 to 10 kts. Seas remain 2 to
3 feet with such light winds over the waters.

Climate
Record MAX temps for 07 22 (sat)
location temp year
new bern 106 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1987 (khse asos)
greenville 102 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 100 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 105 1932 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 99 2011 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 23 (sun)
location temp year
new bern 100 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1972 (khse asos)
greenville 103 1932 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 103 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 24 (mon)
location temp year
new bern 99 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 90 2016 (khse asos)
greenville 99 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Sunday for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.

Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Sunday through Sunday
evening for ncz095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Monday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Cqd hsa
near term... Rsb cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Rf eh
aviation... Rsb eh cqd
marine... Rsb eh cqd
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi54 min SSW 18 G 22 85°F 61°F1010.7 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi54 min SSW 23 G 25 83°F 86°F1012 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 47 mi66 min 63°F2 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S12
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi51 minSSW 1310.00 miFair86°F76°F73%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6SW5SW8SW3SW7SW9CalmSW8CalmSW8SW6SW3W8CalmSW10SW11SW10SW8
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1 day agoSW8SW8CalmCalmSW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW10
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2 days agoSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:05 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:21 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.5-0.30.41.42.53.23.43.12.51.50.5-0.3-0.6-0.40.41.62.93.94.44.33.82.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:09 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.3-0.10.51.42.53.23.53.32.61.70.7-0.1-0.4-0.20.61.72.944.64.64.13.11.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.