Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:20PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:22 PM EDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 7:59AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1210 Pm Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
This afternoon..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of rain with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231606
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1206 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area this weekend. A storm system
will impact the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure building
down the east coast will then dominate later Tuesday into the second
half of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 10 am Saturday... Zones look good. No changes needed. 1024
mb high pressure over the ohio valley this morning will control
our weather today. With an abundance of dry air through the
column sunshine will be plentiful today which will push highs
toward 60 degrees by afternoon. While not as breezy as yesterday
optimal mixing in the boundary layer will produce a few gusts
toward 20 mph from mid morning into the afternoon. With
afternoon dewpoints in the lower 20s and breezy conditions, we
added a fire section below to mention an increased risk for fire
danger today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 330 am Saturday... High pressure mentioned above will be
overhead tonight allowing for ideal radiational cooling
conditions under a clear sky, calm, and very dry environment.

Despite these ideal conditions most guidance keeps temps in the
mid to even upper 30s across the area. Met guidance seems
closest to reality given such ideal cooling conditions and we
maintained the previous forecast of lows in the lower 30s inland
away from areas of water. We issued a freeze watch for the
entire area tonight outside of dare county and outer banks hyde
to account for the increasing possibility of near or below
freezing conditions. On the far eastern edge of our watch toward
carteret county, far eastern pamlico and hyde counties, the
warmer waters may moderate temps here into the mid 30s. Felt a
watch was still worth it for these areas with areas of frost
possible and the possibility that we may still not be cold
enough for lows tonight given such ideal conditions. Outside of
the watch enough moderation from the water should keep temps in
the 40s across the outer banks.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 330 am sat... High pressure will slide offshore on Sunday,
allowing for increasing low level southerly flow WAA to develop. Dry
conditions will continue as strong subsidence persists in the mid
levels, but cloud cover will gradually increase through the day as
pva and height falls aloft spreads cirrus over the area from the
southwest. Developing WAA and subsidence will bring temps several
degrees above normal despite the increasing cloud cover.

Monday and Tuesday... A complex and atypical upper level patten will
emerge early next week as the area of greatest energy associated
with a shortwave aloft slides from the northern jet stream across
the missouri valley early Monday to the southern stream across the
carolinas Tuesday morning. The result is a complex and broad frontal
system what will impact the east coast Monday and Tuesday. Locally,
moisture advection will be strongest Monday as we will be located
within the warm sector of the approaching system. Surface low
pressure will slide across the appalachians into the carolinas later
Monday. Guidance is resolving a complex low by the time it reaches
our area Monday night, with the primary low center passing to our
south, but a secondary low possibly forming near over eastern nc.

While exact details and characteristics of the rainfall remain
uncertain, the wettest period should be late Monday afternoon
through overnight Monday, when column destabilization is greatest
ahead of and near the passing low. A few rumbles of thunder are also
possible, though instability appears too low for any significant
severe threat.

Drying conditions are expected during the day Tuesday as the low
moves off the coast. The combination of the low deepening offshore
and high pressure ridging inland will bring breezy to strong
northeast winds Tuesday, and temps will be 10 to 15 degrees below
normal.

Wednesday through Friday... High pressure ridging down the east coast
will dominate locally, keeping a mainly dry forecast in place for
the second half of the workweek as low pressure stalls well
offshore. Northeast winds will prevail, though they will gradually
diminish through the period. Accordingly, temps will trend from below
normal Wednesday to above normal by Friday.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 650 am sat...VFR through the end of the TAF period with
skc expected. Light northwest winds now will become gusty by
mid morning with a few gusts to 18 kts through afternoon. Near
calm conditions expected tonight with high pressure overhead.

Despite calm conditions fog is not expected tonight due to very
dry air in place. This is evident by our afternoon dewpoints
today which will be in the lower 20s. These values are well
below our forecast minimum temperatures tonight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 330 am sat...VFR conditions will prevail Sunday and Sunday
night. Flight restrictions are then possible Monday morning through
Tuesday morning as a broad and complex storm system impacts the
area.VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly winds arrive during the
day Tuesday, likely continuing through Wednesday.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of noon Saturday... Allowed SCA on the sounds to expire at
noon. Updated zones out momentarily. Tonight northwest winds
veer into due north at less than 10 kts.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 330 am sat... Light southerly flow will develop early Sunday,
gradually increasing and turning southwest through Monday evening as
a complex low pressure frontal system approaches from the west. The
cold front or low pressure will pass off the coast Tuesday morning.

Low pressure will deepen well offshore Tuesday as high pressure
builds inland, resulting in strong north to northeast winds
developing. Gale conditions are possible later Tuesday into
Wednesday as low pressure remains stalled well offshore, keeping the
gradient tight locally.

Seas will be minimal Sunday before increasing beginning Sunday night
in response to developing southerly southwesterly winds. Seas will
reach as high as 3 to 5 ft in southerly windswell by Monday night.

Strong northeasterly winds will bring rapidly increasing northeast
windswell as the low frontal system moves well offshore Tuesday, and
seas will become large and dangerous later Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Fire weather
As of 345 am Saturday... Clear and very dry conditions are still
expected today along with breezy conditions from mid morning
through the afternoon. Winds will be from the northwest 10-15
mph during the day with gusts to around 20 mph. Minimum rh
values will drop into the 20 to 25% range by this afternoon.

Given recent rains do not anticipate widespread fire weather
concerns, but the low rh values northwest winds could lead to an
increased threat of fire danger.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
ncz029-044>046-079>081-090>095-098.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz150-
152-154.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for amz156-
158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Hsa eh
short term... Eh
long term... Cb
aviation... Eh cb
marine... Hsa eh cb
fire weather... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi34 min WNW 18 G 20 49°F 47°F1020.1 hPa
FRFN7 45 mi142 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 46 mi52 min 47°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi40 min WNW 16 G 19 49°F 50°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi42 minNNW 11 G 1910.00 miFair55°F23°F30%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS14SW10SW12
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2 days agoNE11
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NE7N9NE6NE6NE6NE4NE7NE5NE5NE6E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:02 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.50.4-0.4-0.7-0.40.41.52.63.43.73.42.71.70.7-0.2-0.5-0.30.41.42.53.43.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:04 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.70.5-0.4-0.7-0.40.31.42.63.43.73.52.81.80.7-0.2-0.6-0.40.21.32.53.54.14.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.