Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:17PM Friday January 18, 2019 4:40 PM EST (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:51PMMoonset 4:28AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 407 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday evening through Monday evening...
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of rain and snow showers in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 182124
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
424 pm est Fri jan 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will ridge into the area from the south through
tonight. A strong cold front will approach from the west
tomorrow and move through Sunday. Arctic high pressure will
build in from the west early next week. Another cold front will
impact the area mid to late next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 pm fri... High pressure building into the area from the
south under quasi-zonal flow aloft will keep settled conditions
in place. Modest low level moisture remains in place, and few to
scattered cumulus coverage will persist across portions of the
area through sunset. Skies will clear this evening, and with
light flow in place, the boundary layer will decouple with
efficient radiational cooling. A weak cold front wind shift
will cross the area this evening overnight as high pressure
slides off the southeast coast, but this feature will be
essentially undetectable in observations with minimal sensible
weather effects. Upper level clouds will likely begin to develop
late tonight as the southern stream jet moves closer to the
area. Additionally, some low stratus and light fog is possible
before sunrise, especially across northern portions of the area
where high cloud cover is less certain. Whatever cloud cover
does form will limit radiational cooling, and lows will likely
be reached during the late night hours, with temps holding
steady or perhaps increasing a degree or two through the early
morning pre-dawn hours.

Short term Saturday
As of 3 pm fri... A pattern change will occur beginning Saturday
as an amplified trough shifts a strong surface low from the
southern plains to the central appalachians. A warm front
associated with this feature will cross the area during the day
Saturday, bringing a modest low level theta-e surge that will
spell the return of precip chances to the forecast. However,
stubbornly dry mid levels will limit pops to only low end chance
to slight chance for most of the area through the day. The more
important feature is the arrival of stronger, deep layer
southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front late in the
day, which will bring deeper moisture and increasing around
sunset. Additionally, winds will become breezy later in the
period. Despite cloudy skies, temps will reach into the upper
50s to mid 60s Saturday afternoon as the area becomes entrenched
within the warm sector of the approaching low.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm Friday... Mild temperatures are expected through
Sunday, with wet weather Saturday night into Sunday. Then it
will turn sharply colder Sunday night and Monday as the coldest
air to date of this winter barrels into the area behind a strong
cold front. Another storm system will affect the region
Wednesday-Thursday but timing differences continue.

Saturday night through Monday... Phasing streams will lead to
inland cyclogenesis over the southern plains this evening
(Friday) with the low racing northeast into the mid atlantic sat
night and along the new england coast Sunday. This low will
push a strong cold front through our area Sunday. The models
have trended a little faster with the front now pushing it off
the nc coast by noon. The forecast area will get into warm
sector ahead of the front on Saturday with highs upper 50s to
low 60s, though the models cont to point to mainly dry
conditions through Sat evening they are still indicating the
threat for a few showers through the day sat. Will remain warm
early Sunday just ahead of the front with highs mainly 60 to 65
then temperatures should plummet through the 40s in the
afternoon in the cold NW flow behind the front. Non diurnal temp
curve expected Sat night, with temps and dewpoints increasing
into Sunday morning. Mdls still showing some marginal sfc based
instab ahead of the front, so added an isolated TSTM mention
after 06z Sunday morning mainly due to the strong forcing
vicinity of the front. With guidance in pretty good agreement on
this system will continue the categorical pops for all areas
late Sat night and early Sunday with good band of shra expected
along and ahead of front. CAA advection is extreme late
Sunday Sunday evening and may very briefly see a no impact snow
shower or flurry with residual moisture Sunday evening.

Gusty SW winds expected ahead of the front Sat night into early
Sunday, becoming NW behind the front Sunday afternoon. Wind
gusts 35-45 mph expected along the outer banks, peaking sun
evening and Sun night. Minor water level rises will be possible
for the soundside of the outer banks given the strong winds and
high astronomical tides.

Very cold air will surge in Sunday night and cont thru mon
night. Lows Sun night will drop into the upper teens inland to
the upr 20s central SRN beaches. Temps Monday will be bitterly
cold with highs only be in the low mid 30s with many areas
staying below freezing. Gusty NW winds Sunday night and Mon will
produce wind chill temps in the teens late Sun night into early
mon. Cool high pressure remains in control through Mon night
with lows in the upper teens and 20s. Mid level heights increase
behind the departing trough on Tuesday with forecast highs in
the mid 40s most spots.

Wednesday through Friday... The latest GFS and ECMWF continue
the development of another storm system with similar genesis to
the previous two approaching the carolinas mid to late week with
the system exiting out of the area Friday, but models continue
to have timing differences. Regardless, southerly low level
flow combined with continued ridging aloft should help highs
climb back into the upper 50s to around 60 wed, then dropping
back into the 50s Thursday. Will continue chance pops Wed and
thu and diminishing pops Friday.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 1 pm fri... Ifr conditions are expected to prevail through
this evening at all terminals. Tonight, lingering low level
moisture will bring scattered stratus coverage, and at least
brief MVFR ceilings are possible, along and north of the neuse
river for kpgv, kiso, and kewn late through sunrise Saturday,
but coverage will be limited and confidence is too low to
prevail MVFR in the forecast at this point.VFR conditions
should prevail everywhere through the morning hours Saturday
before an approaching cold front brings increasing low level
moisture and MVFR ceilings to all terminals, likely beginning
Saturday afternoon.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm Friday... Sub-vfr will dominate Saturday night and
Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the area from the
west with widespread showers. Gusty SW winds early Sunday will
shift to the NW in the afternoon and remain gusty as intense
cold advection develops behind cold front Sunday night into mon.

PredVFR conditions expected to return Sunday evening and
continue through Tuesday.

Marine
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 3 pm fri... Mainly light winds and small seas will persist
through Saturday morning as high pressure ridges in from the
south. By late Saturday afternoon, an approaching cold front
will bring increasing southwest flow and building seas, with
breezy conditions possible across the waters by sunset Saturday.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 400 pm Friday... Strong winds are to develop ahead a cold
front Sat night into Sun night as SW winds increase to 25 to 35 kts
with possible stronger gust, therefore added gale watch starting
after 06z Sunday. Winds will begin to shift to NW Sun afternoon
as the front crosses with gale force NW winds likely most
waters Sun afternoon and Sunday night as intense cold air
advection moves in behind front. Seas will build 10 to 12 feet
Sunday under the gusty winds. Winds and seas will gradually
subside late Monday and Monday night. Waves subside late Mon to
2 to 4 feet SRN waters but remain elevated AOA 6 ft for the
cntrl and NRN waters through early Tue morning as winds slowly
decrease to 15 to 20 kts SRN waters and 20 to 25 knots cntrl and
nrn waters. Northerly winds 10-15 kt early Tue veering to the
e SE 10 kt or less.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cb
short term... Cb
long term... Jme bm
aviation... Jme bm cb
marine... Jme bm cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi47 min NE 7 G 7 47°F 44°F1018.3 hPa
FRFN7 45 mi101 min 1 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 46 mi41 min 46°F1 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi47 min E 4.1 G 6 49°F 47°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi61 minWNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F44°F58%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4E4E3CalmNE3CalmS3S3SW4SW4SW3SW5SW3SW4SW4SW3SW3W4CalmW3NW4CalmN3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3NE3NE3N4CalmCalmNE3NE4E8E9E8E9E8E9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmSW3SW5SW5W5W5SW7SW8W9SW7W8W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:55 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.42.43.13.53.53.12.41.50.70.1-0.200.61.42.12.72.82.51.91.10.3-0.3-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:32 AM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:05 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:54 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.42.43.33.83.83.52.81.80.90.2-0.10.10.61.32.12.72.92.72.11.30.5-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.