Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manteo, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday May 28, 2017 8:07 PM EDT (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:47AMMoonset 10:14PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 737 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..Variable winds 5 to 10 kt becoming w. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms until early morning.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manteo, NC
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location: 35.91, -75.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 282323
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
723 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary will lift back north this evening.

A stronger front will approach from the northwest Monday and
Tuesday, and stall along the coast through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 720 pm Sunday... Eastern nc remains in a
warm moist unstable regime with low amplitude pertubations
moving through the flow aloft helping to trigger episodic
convective clusters. The initial area of storms that occurred
across the extreme north late this afternoon has moved offshore.

A secondary area of convection has formed over portions of
south carolina and southeast nc early this evening. Expecting
these storms to affect mainly the southern half of the area
south of the pamlico river this evening. A few of these storms
could be marginally severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts the main threats. The guidance is in good agreement that
this activity will move east of the area by 6z with the
remainder of the overnight hours dry as the low level flow
becomes westerly. Another mid-summer night in terms of
temperatures expected with lows in the low mid 70s over most
areas.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 315 pm Sunday... In many ways, Monday will be a repeat of
today with a capping inversion keeping the convection at bay
until later in the afternoon or evening hours per latest 3km nam
and gfs. The entire CWA remains in a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms and would again expect strong gusty winds to be
the primary threat. Maintained pops in the 30-40 percent range
for Monday afternoon and evening. MOS numbers and 850
temperatures show that memorial day could be the warmest day of
the year so far for some spots, especially near the coast where
highs could approach 90 degrees with even mid upper 80s over the
central and northern outer banks.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 415 pm Sunday... An unsettled pattern will be the rule
through the extended period as shortwaves disturbances move
through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low
confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations
of shortwaves frontal boundaries across area.

Monday night... Expect any afternoon or evening convection to
linger overnight as weak shortwaves move through wsw flow aloft.

There will also be a weak front approaching the area. GFS ecmwf
forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE values of 500-1500 with deep
layer shear (0-6km) increasing to 40-45 knots, thus concern for
strong to severe storms remains. SPC continues to keep the area
in a slight risk of severe for their day 2 outlook. Kept pops
in 30 to 40 percent range overnight. Lows remaining muggy, 70-74.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... A weak front is expected to stall across
or just northwest of the area Tuesday, and wash out across area
with additional short wave energy resulting in another period
of mainly diurnally driven showers and t-storms. Tuesday afternoon
convection could be similar to or exceed Monday's activity,
mainly because of better moisture focused along the stalled
front and channeled shortwave vorticity over the region
coincident with peak afternoon heating. More cloud cover and
lower thicknesses will keep MAX temps mainly in the 80s. Lows
Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. SPC has the
entire area under a marginal risk of severe for their day 3
outlook with continued instability and shear.

Wednesday-Thursday... Another weak front will sag southeast into
the region Wednesday, serving as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be more marginal than
previous mon-tues, thus while thunderstorms will be possible,
severe potential appears much more limited at this time. Latest
guidance suggests the front should move offshore late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, yielding lower pops to only slight
chance, and latter shifts may be able to remove pops for
Thursday. Low level thicknesses will build near 1400 meters
supporting MAX temps in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s along
the coast obx.

Friday-Sunday... Low confidence for this forecast period due to
poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks and
followed closely with blended guidance approach. Higher chance
pops for Friday with the front lifting back north, helping to
focus moisture over the area through the weekend. MAX temps
generally in the mid 80s inland with low 80s along the coast,
and lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Aviation 23z Sunday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 720 pm Sunday... Should be a mainlyVFR forecast outside
of scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Monday
afternoon. Light low level mixing should preclude most fog
overnight.

Long term Monday night through Friday
as of 420 pm Sunday... Expect periods of sub-vfr aviation
conditions with convective activity each afternoon and evening
from Monday night through Wednesday. Less coverage for
Thursday as a weak front should move more offshore. Sub-vfr
will again be possible Friday afternoon evening as showers and
thunderstorms will be possible.

Marine
Short term tonight and Monday
as of 720 pm Sunday... Winds continue to be gusty over the
central and southern waters and pamlico sound and will continue
winds to 15-20 knots through the evening before winds become
more westerly and diminish to 10-15 knots later tonight and
Monday. Per local nwps swan guidance, seas should remain in the
2 to 4 foot range through the forecast period.

Long term Monday night through Friday
as of 420 pm Sunday... The period will experience zonal flow
with weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into
the area. Specifics are difficult to forecast with regard to the
frontal location. Do not have much confidence to times that
occurs, except that by Thursday the front should push through at
least the northern waters for a brief period. The southern half
of waters will mainly see SW winds 5-15 knots during period but
northern waters will see some periods of shifting winds but
with speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some
periods of seas building to 4 feet for outer portions with
stronger SW winds around 15 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-3
feet during the extended period. Nwps and wavewatch in good
agreement through the medium range, with wavewatch appearing
reasonable for the extended seas forecast.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jme ctc
near term... Jme ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag jme ctc
marine... Dag jme ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 10 mi55 min W 2.9 G 7 79°F 74°F1008.4 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi55 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 66°F1008.2 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 20 mi37 min 69°F2 ft
44095 21 mi49 min 67°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi62 min 66°F2 ft
41062 31 mi67 min SSW 12 G 16 70°F 64°F1009.2 hPa (-0.0)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 48 mi55 min SW 13 G 21 77°F 75°F1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC2 mi27 minWNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F69°F77%1009.1 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC7 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair75°F71°F89%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW9SW10SW7CalmS3SW4SW5NE3CalmE3E3E3SE5SE5SE6SW8S9S10S14SW19
G23
W6
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N8NW5
1 day agoNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmW5W6W4W7W6W3CalmS6W5NW5CalmSW3S13
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2 days agoW15
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NW10NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:14 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:10 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:17 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:34 PM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
31.90.7-0.1-0.5-0.40.31.32.43.23.63.42.81.80.80-0.4-0.30.41.42.63.54.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:58 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:28 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.50.40.20.10000.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.10000.10.20.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.