Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manteo, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday July 23, 2017 4:51 AM EDT (08:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:15AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 258 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except around 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manteo, NC
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location: 35.91, -75.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230632
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
232 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through tonight. A weak cold front
will approach from the northwest Monday and sag into the region
later Tuesday into Wednesday. The front will lift north of the
area late in the week. Another cold front will move into the
region next weekend.

Near term through today
As of 230 am Sunday... Another hot day on tap with poss a few
strong storms late inland and n. Offshore high pres with a trof
to the NW will cont today. Strong heating again likely with
inland areas reaching cpl dgrs either side of 95. These temps
combined with dewpts in 70s will again produce heat index values
105 to 109 most areas with SRN and central beaches remaining a
little cooler with flow off ocean. No change to current heat
advisory.

Strong instab will develop today and some convection will be
poss during the aftn... Mainly inland and N where bulk of mdls
show some precip. Better shear and svr threat will remain N of
region... However given degree of instab a strong to marginally
svr storm will be poss.

Short term tonight
As of 230 am Sunday... Widely sct to sct convection will cont in
the evening best chcs inland and n... Again a few strong storms
poss early when instab remains strong. As instab weakens later
in the evening whatever storms do fire will weaken and mdls
suggest better cvrg late at night off central and SRN cst with
limited activity inland. SW flow will cont with lows again
mainly 70s with around 80 some beaches locations.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 230 am sun... The forecast remains in good shape with a
trend toward slightly "cooler" weather and increasing chances
for rainfall through much of the upcoming week.

Monday... The main players of the week will be a disturbance now
southeast of winnipeg that will help to establish a trof over
the northeast us. This trof will help to push a frontal boundary
that is now over the mid atlantic toward our area Monday, and
this feature will impact us through much of the upcoming week.

The disturbance just mentioned will be making its way through
the lower great lakes Sunday evening. This southward progression
will be just enough to push the shower thunderstorm threat that
has remained well to our north the past few days, into our
area. The end result will be an increasing trend in
thunderstorm chances as a cold front gets closer to our area.

Precipitable water values will be high with locally heavy rain
the main threat. With the increased cloud cover and rain
threat, along with slightly lower thickness values temps will be
2 to 4 degrees "cooler" than this weekend.

Tuesday Wednesday... With a cold front near or over our area Tuesday,
this appears to be another day with a decent shot of
thunderstorms through most of the area. Model trends have been a
little slower and not as far south with the passage of the cold
front. This will keep the risk for storms around again
Wednesday, with the highest chances across the far south in
closer proximity to the front.

Thursday and beyond... While the trof in the northeast us lifts out
and heights build in that area, an elongated weakness in the
heights aloft will remain over the carolinas. At the same time
the remnants of the frontal boundary mentioned above will
remain, with a new front approaching by early next weekend. This
will result in daily chances for thunderstorms and near normal
late july highs of around 90 inland, and 80s along the coast.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday night ...

as of 1220 am Sunday... PredominateVFR conditions expected
through the period outside of convection. Decent SW breeze will
cont to limit threat for late night fog thru the period. Strong
instab will lead to wdly sct to sct shra and tsra later today
into the evening and could see brief subVFR, but given lack of
confidence in cvrg and timing will not add to fcst yet.

Long term Mon through Thursday ...

as of 230 am sun... Cont mainlyVFR Mon thru Thu however will
have better coverage of showers and thunderstorms from time to
time resulting in a few pds of subVFR. Weak front drops thru
later Tue and stalls over southern sections wed... Could see some
lower CIGS assoc with the front and some late night fog.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 230 am Sunday... Not much change in pattern with SW winds
cont in the 15 to 25 kt range between offshore high and inland
trof front. Best winds looks to remain over pamlico sound and
central and SRN wtrs so SCA cont these areas. Will at times be
close to sca NRN wtrs as well but will keep just below for now.

Local swan mdl conts to be overdone with seas showing 6 to 7
feet currently while buoys holding around 5 ft. Based on this
leaned closer to wavewatch with seas capped at 6 ft thru short
term.

Long term Mon through Thursday ...

as of 230 am sun... Ssw winds of 15 to 25 kts will continue thru
Monday evening between offshore high pres and front trof to the
w. These winds will lead to seas of mainly 4 to 6 feet outer
central and SRN wtrs. Used nwps for waves as this matched up
better with opc than wavewatch. This resulted in extending the
small craft advisories south of oregon inlet to late mon
night Tue morning.

As a cold front gets closer later Mon night winds and seas will
slowly subside. The front will drop thru NRN half of region
later Tue into Tue night then stall and weaken a bit Wed over
srn tier. Expect NRN wtrs will see a period of light onshore e
to NE winds behind front Tue night into Wed while SRN tier will
cont with mainly S to SW winds but shld be light. Seas will
subside to 2 to 3 feet all wtrs wed. As the front lifts
northward again over the waters later Wednesday and Thursday,
south to southwest winds return and remain generally 5 to 10
kts. Seas remain 2 to 3 feet with such light winds over the
waters.

Climate
Record MAX temps for 07 23 (sun)
location temp year
new bern 100 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1972 (khse asos)
greenville 103 1932 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 103 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 24 (mon)
location temp year
new bern 99 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 90 2016 (khse asos)
greenville 99 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.

Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Monday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for amz156.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for amz158.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Hsa
aviation... Rf hsa
marine... Rf hsa
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 10 mi51 min SW 19 G 21 84°F1010.4 hPa (-0.9)
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi51 min SW 18 G 22 81°F 59°F1009.7 hPa (-0.8)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 20 mi51 min 62°F2 ft
44095 21 mi63 min 79°F4 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi46 min 72°F3 ft
41062 31 mi51 min NE 18 G 23 81°F 82°F1011.5 hPa (-0.6)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 48 mi51 min SW 8.9 G 13 77°F 76°F1011.9 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC2 mi66 minWSW 1310.00 miFair80°F75°F87%1010.8 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC7 mi66 minSW 8 G 1410.00 miFair80°F73°F81%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W9W8W10W10W11SW14W10W11W11W15SW15SW13
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1 day agoW5W5W5W5SW5SW5S5SW5S8S9S12
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2 days agoW4W3W4W5CalmSW4SW3NE4SW4SW9SW9S9S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Sun -- 01:56 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.2-0.5-0.10.71.72.73.43.63.32.51.50.5-0.2-0.5-0.20.71.833.94.34.23.62.5

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:33 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.20.1000.10.30.40.50.60.50.40.20.10000.10.30.50.60.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.