Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:01PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:21AMMoonset 5:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 321 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 180759
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
300 am est Mon dec 18 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will extend across central nc today, then move
offshore on Tuesday. A low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather to central nc by Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Monday...

just minor adjustments made to the near term forecast, primarily to
the sky cover and a slight uptick in the high temperatures today.

Weak, baggy high pressure will extend across central nc from a
parent high centered over the deep south. The low level wly flow
will advect a notably warmer air mass into our region. This air mass
coupled with periods of partly sunny skies will boost afternoon
temperatures into the low-mid 60s, at least 10 degrees warmer than
Sunday's high temperatures. The main caveat is that there is the
potential for skies to remain overcast or mostly cloudy through mid
day or early afternoon. If the Sun fails to appear by early
afternoon, high temperatures will likely be about 5 degrees cooler
(mid-upper 50s NW to the lower 60s se).

Tonight, the tranquil weather pattern will continue with no
precipitation anticipated. A surge of warm, moist air from the south
that the models have been fairly consistent with should lead to
increasing cloud cover with the possibility of fog to develop,
primarily south of highway 64. Min temps relatively mild for
december with overnight temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to
around 40 NW to the mid 40s se.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 300 am Monday...

Tuesday, weak high pressure at the surface will weaken further while
wly flow persists in the mid-upper levels. This flow will induce the
development of a lee side trough in the western piedmont. The
resultant low level west-sw flow will continue to usher warm air
into central nc. Potential for afternoon temperatures to reach 70
degrees across our southern tier counties with 60s common elsewhere.

The day will start out rather cloudy with periods of Sun probable in
the afternoon. Similar to today, if the clouds persists into the
afternoon, high temperatures will end up 5-6 degrees cooler than
forecast.

Main adjustment in the Tuesday night forecast was to delay the onset
of precipitation across the western-southern piedmont until midnight
or a bit later when the moisture is deep enough and lift sufficient
to generate precipitation. Otherwise expect increasing thickening
cloud cover southwest-to-northeast with mild overnight temperatures
ranging from the mid 40s far north to the lower 50s south.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 220 am Monday...

Wednesday and Wednesday night: models are in much better agreement
with the upper level wave moving into the region on Wednesday. High
confidence in a wet forecast for Wednesday, with rain diminishing
overnight as the deamplifying low shifts offshore. A the surface,
though models are in fairly good agreement, small differences in the
location track of the surface low will have large impacts on the
temperature and precipitation forecasts. The consensus is for the
low to remain south of the area, with the backdoor cold front
sliding south into the area during the day Wednesday. That being
said, the expected rainfall and overcast skies should limit cooling
initially so expect highs in the mid to upper 50s, though if the
more aggressive NAM solution verifies, temps could be a degree or
two lower. High pressure will ridge southward into central nc
Wednesday night, though clouds and light rain may linger into the
overnight hours. Should skies clear more, lows could be a bit lower,
but for now expect lows generally in the mid to upper 30s, a good 10-
15 degrees lower than Tuesday night.

Thursday through Friday night: a cad wedge will set up on Thursday,
lingering over the area, especially in the northwest, into Friday.

With good CAA and clear to partly cloudy skies, temperatures
Thursday will top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s (north to south),
while lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Friday could be a bit
warmer, especially in the southeast, but will depend on if when the
wedge erodes ahead of the approaching frontal system. With a grain
of salt, expect highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid to
upper 40s Friday and Friday night. With the southwesterly flow aloft
overrunning the northeasterly cold air advecting into the region at
the surface, expect increasing cloudiness and chances for some light
stratiform rainfall Friday and Friday night. Otherwise, this part of
the forecast will be relatively dry.

Saturday and Sunday: the strong low pressure system that develops
off the rockies in the midwest on Friday will strengthen as it
progresses eastward Friday night into Saturday. Central nc will be
under the influence of the upper level ridge, with the increasing
southwesterly flow advecting significant moisture into the
appalachians. The ec and GFS differ on the evolution of the front
and pre-frontal convection during this part of the period, thus
confidence is relatively low. The GFS is more progressive, moving
the front through the area on Saturday with the frontal zone
stalling over the area, resulting in an extended period of rainfall
for central nc. However, the ec hangs the front up along the
mountains on Saturday and Sunday, with best chances for rain along
the va nc border. As a result of these significant differences,
specifics of the forecast for this time period are very much up in
the air.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 1225 am Monday...

pockets of MVFR ceilings can be expected across central nc through
13z. The threat for subVFR ceilings appears highest in proximity of
kfay. Otherwise,VFR parameters anticipated through 06z Tuesday.

After 06z Tuesday, areas of low clouds and fog is expected to
develop across central nc, primarily south of highway 64. The
ifr lifr conditions appear highest in vicinity of kfay, but may also
plague krwi and krdu.VFR parameters should return areawide by 16z
Tuesday.

A more persistent round of subVFR ceilings along with areas of rain
will occur late Tuesday night through Wednesday night as a low
pressure system affects the region. Currently,VFR parameters are
expected to return for Thu and fri.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Kc
aviation... Wss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi51 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 47°F1021 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi76 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F42°F93%1022 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW4SW3SW6SW6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmW4NW6W7W4CalmSW5SW9S3S4CalmS3CalmCalmS4S3S3S5S3S4
2 days agoNE5NE6NE5NE443CalmW5CalmSW6NW9W8NW7NW4W4W3CalmCalmNW4W4W5W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 04:08 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EST     4.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:30 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:52 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.80.90.2-0.200.71.62.63.544.13.72.81.80.80.1-0.10.20.91.82.63.13.3

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 04:09 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EST     4.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:30 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:56 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.910.2-0.10.10.71.62.73.64.14.23.83210.3-00.20.91.72.63.23.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.