Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 3:01 PM   Moonset 3:39 AM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 349 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A warm front will track north across the waters this evening. A cold front then tracks south across the region and stalls just offshore on Saturday bringing our next threat for some precip during the afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure will lift ne along the front Sunday into Monday bringing unsettled weather across the region once again. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.

FXUS62 KRAH 192001 CCA AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 400 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak backdoor front over northeast North Carolina will slowly lift back north as a warm front into the afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Saturday, and then settle just to our south late Saturday. A wave of low pressure will track along the front Sunday into Monday, bringing unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 357 PM Friday...

Severe threat is diminishing

...Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible through the evening mainly along and south of HWY 64...

Along the stalled front, moderate buoyancy with a sharp instability gradient has developed across the southern half of the forecast area, or approximately along and south of HWY 64. After producing some 35 to 45 mph gusts, the small cluster of storms over the Sandhills, which was largely driven by an MCV and out flow from earlier storms in SC, has substantially weakened. While we could still see a few cells in this cluster intensify over the next couple of hours as these storms advance eastward in the coastal plain counties, it's looking like the lingering inhibition north of HWY 64 will significantly impede deeper convection.

Closely on the heels of this lead convection, the arrival of the cold front into the area will bring additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms into the area will move in from the NW towards sunset and will progress east across the area through 06z.
Cannot rule out an isolated strong storm, but loss of heating and renewed BL CIN should result in weakening intensity and coverage, with largely dry weather expected after 1 or 2 AM.

Lows tonight are expected to cool down into the upper 50s to mid 60s with the development of low clouds/stratus across the eastern two- thirds of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM Friday...

The cold front will be sinking south through far southern NC on Saturday morning, and it will continue to sink into SC through the day. With westerly flow aloft and no upper forcing to speak of, Saturday should be a dry day across the area, except can't rule out a stray shower in our far southern counties in the afternoon and evening. Forecast highs range from lower-70s in the far north to upper-70s to 80 in the far south, which is within a few degrees of normal, as the coolest air looks to get hung up over the mountains and lag behind the front. Isentropic lift will improve overnight Saturday night, helping light rain begin to spread in from south to north. Soundings show low-level dry air may result in mostly virga across the north. Regardless amounts through 12z Sunday should be light, only around a tenth of an inch or less. Lows will be in the upper-40s to mid-50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...

A weak shortwave trough will move NE from the Deep South to the Carolinas on Sunday and Sunday night, as an associated surface low rides along a cold front from east of the GA/SC coast to off the NC coast. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase moisture advection into central NC during this period. Confidence continues to be high for a period of widespread light to moderate rain across much of the area on Sunday afternoon and evening, when POPs are likely outside of the far north and even categorical in the south and southeast.
Forecast totals range from a tenth to a quarter inch over our far northern counties to around a half inch in the far south, maybe a bit higher in the southern Coastal Plain. With the front well to our south by this point from southern GA to off the SC coast, we will be cool and stable which will prevent any chance of storms and result in just stratiform rain. It will also keep rain rates from getting too heavy, and forecast amounts are not high to begin with, so not concerned about a flooding threat. Leaned toward the cooler guidance for temperatures on Sunday given potential for some CAD. Highs in the mid-to-upper-50s will be possible in many areas, and raw GFS and NAM guidance suggests even cooler highs than that. Widespread rain will exit to the east on Sunday night and skies will begin to clear as the low moves away. Lows will be in the 40s.

A more potent shortwave will pass through GA and SC on Monday afternoon and evening, but the air mass will be much drier by this point and the best upper forcing will be to our south. Also the GFS which had been the wettest model continues to trend drier. So the vast majority of the area should be free of precipitation, but can't rule out a bit of light rain in the far SE. Regardless it will be quite cool once again, with forecast highs in the lower-to-mid-60s.

Tuesday will finally turn sunny and dry as surface high pressure builds in, with highs increasing back to near normal (in the lower- to-mid-70s). Tuesday morning looks chilly with decent radiational cooling, and forecast lows are in the lower-40s and possibly some upper-30s in outlying areas. Yet another cold front will approach on Wednesday, as southwesterly flow ahead of it warms temperatures into the mid-70s to lower-80s. Can't rule out a stray shower with it, but the vast majority of ensembles are dry and the best upper forcing is well displaced from us across the northern Mid-Atlantic. Thursday and Friday will turn cooler again as Canadian high pressure builds down from the north. Have slight chance POPs on Friday as models show a bit of light rain from overrunning can't be ruled out as the frontal zone starts to lift back north.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 227 PM Friday...

INT/GSO: Isolated showers are possible over the next few hours, followed by a potential for isolated storms between 23z to 03z as a cold front moves into the area. It should be mostly dry thereafter with VFR conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast period.

RDU/RWI/FAY: KFAY was the last site to see this morning's lingering IFR/MVFR stratus layer lift and scatter out. Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the afternoon and evening as upper level disturbance moves through the area. Based on recent recent trends, KFAY will have the best chance of seeing sub-VFR restrictions from TS over the next couple of hours. Convective wind gusts of 40 to 50kts will also be possible with the stronger storms.
Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings appears likely starting 03 to 06z, and will persist through 13-16z at KRDU and KFAY before lifting to VFR. The sub-VFR ceilings could hold on at KRWI until the early afternoon.

Looking beyond 18z Sat, after mostly dry weather Saturday, rain and associated sub-VFR restrictions will spread south to north into the area Sunday and into Sunday night as a wave of low pressure tracks along a slow moving south of the area. Rain chances may linger at FAY Monday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tue. A weak cold front moves in from the NW Wednesday, but chance of precip and associated restrictions is low confidence at this time.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia, Tide feet

Suffolk
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Fri -- 02:20 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:02 PM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
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Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet

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