Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:51PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 4:21 AM EDT (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:28AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 358 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms until late afternoon, then scattered showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with scattered tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 230714
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
315 am edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front approaching from the northwest will cross
central nc this evening and overnight. High pressure will build into
the region late Thursday and especially Friday and Saturday.

Near term Wednesday and Wednesday night
As of 315 am Wednesday...

on the southern periphery of the main belt of westerlies
accompanying the northern stream trough and low pressure system
lifting northeast through SE canada, a cold front will advance se
into the area late this afternoon and will cross central nc during
the evening and overnight hours, exiting the coastal plain counties
early Thursday.

Late arrival of the front into the area will translate into another
hot day across central nc, with full Sun highs of near 90 nw
piedmont to lower 90s elsewhere.

This strong insolation within the moist airmass featuring dew points
in the lower to mid 70s and pwats 2.0-2.25" will likely result in
moderate instability on the order of 1500-2500 j kg, maximized
across central and eastern portions of the forecast, within the
heart of higher dew points.

Convection is expected to develop near the western piedmont, invof
of the pre-frontal surface trough by the early afternoon, with the
potential for some of the storms to grow in coverage and intensity,
with quite possibly the emergence of one or two strong to severe
clusters as the storms propagate east into eastern piedmont,
sandhills and coastal plain counties by the late afternoon and into
the evening. Bulk shear of 20 to 25 kts coupled with ncape values
~0.25(fat CAPE profiles) suggest the primary severe weather threat
will be damaging thunderstorm gusts along with prolific lightning
producers, especially along and east us 1.

This pre-frontal band of convection will likely serve as the
effective cold front, with only isolated slight chance pops along
the actual cold frontal passage late Wednesday night early Thursday
morning. Lows tonight will depend on the timing of the cold front,
with some cooler mid to upper 60s possible across the NW piedmont,
and lower mid 70s se.

Short term Thursday and Thursday night
As of 235 am Wednesday...

an upper level trough will amplify over and swing through the
eastern u.S. Through Thursday night. Meanwhile, the cold front at
the surface will continue to progress through central nc, however
the exact timing of the frontal passage through the region is
uncertain. Some pre-frontal convection will linger, mainly across
the southeast portions of the area during the day eve Thursday,
largely moving out of the area Thursday night. The location and
timing of the front as it moves through the area will have an impact
on both temperatures and dewpoints. For now, expect highs in the low
to mid 80s and lows generally in the mid 60s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 305 am Wednesday...

surface high pressure will build south behind the cold front,
advecting some cooler and drier air into the area. The spatial and
temporal extent of the CAA is still uncertain, but best chances and
longest duration will be across the north Friday and Friday night,
then over northwest portions of the area Saturday through Wednesday
in a cad-type setup. Along the carolina coast and out over the
atlantic an elongated surface trough will linger during the day
Friday before the high pushes it farther out over the ocean. More
interesting will be the low potential tropical cyclone that develops
off the fl coast Friday Friday night and slowly moves northeast
along the SE u.S. Coast through the remainder of the extended
period. Expect increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances from
late this weekend through the middle of the week. Also, expect
increasing northeasterly winds as the low approaches the nc coast,
with high pressure continuing to ridge southwest into the nw. This
could enhance the CAA over inland areas, while coastal areas may
realize more of an easterly component and tropical airmass. There
are still some differences between the models with regard to this
system, especially into next week, thus confidence is not terribly
high.

Temperatures should feel much better for much of the extended
period, with highs gradually decreasing from upper 70s to mid 80s on
Saturday, possibly into the mid 70s NW to low 80s SE by Tuesday.

Lows will generally be in the low to mid 60s from NW to se, although
areas across the northwest could see lows dip into the 50s over the
weekend.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 145 am Wednesday...

a west-southwesterly LLJ of 15 to 20kts will result in good bl
mixing overnight which will preclude the development of widespread
fog and stratus. Only fog-prone locations like krwi could see a
brief period of sub-vfr conditions between 06 to 12z.

Scattered showers or storms are likely to develop in the vicinity of
a piedmont trough near int gso rdu between 18 to 21z, with the
potential for some of these to grow in coverage and intensity as
they propagate ewd and affect fay and rwi later in the afternoon
through the evening. Sub-vfr conditions could accompany the stronger
cores.

Winds will become west-northwesterly in the wake of the convection
and aforementioned piedmont trough, followed by a secondary wind
shift to nwly or nly with the passage of a cold front between
06 to 12z.

Outlook: the cold front could stall briefly across southeastern nc
through the first half of Thursday, with some lingering showers and
storms possible at rwi and fay until the front fully clears the area
thu afternoon. Additionally, we could see a period of MVFR ceilings
Thursday morning, within the nely low-level flow behind the front.

Following canadian high pressure will then favor generallyVFR
conditions through the weekend.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Cbl badgett
near term... Cbl
short term... Kc
long term... Kc
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi51 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 78°F 84°F1011.1 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi28 minSSW 510.00 miFair75°F73°F96%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS5SW4S8SW5W6SW6W8S6S4S7S4S5S5S9S8S7S5S7S5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm343CalmSE4Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE5SE443Calm34E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:15 AM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:38 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.94.742.81.50.5-0.1-00.61.72.93.94.64.64.13.11.90.80.1-00.41.42.53.6

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.94.742.91.60.4-0.2-0.20.51.52.83.94.64.74.23.220.90.1-0.10.31.32.43.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.