Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:44 AM EST (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1241 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect from 4 am est early this morning through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers, then showers likely late.
Thu..S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Isolated tstms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 krah 240534
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1235 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will rapidly deepen, while tracking along a slowly
retreating warm front through early this morning. High pressure will
follow and build across the region later today through Friday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 1040 pm Wednesday...

a phased, full-latitude trough, with multiple well-defined shortwave
perturbations from the SRN tip of hudson bay sswwd to the lwr ms
valley, will pivot ewd to the west slopes of the srn-cntl
appalachians through 12z thu. Preceding, strong height falls aloft
and forcing for ascent will continue to spread ewd across the
carolinas through the first half of thu. Downstream of that trough
aloft, a 50 kt LLJ (@925 mb) analyzed in 00z upr air data from the
fl panhandle newd across the carolinas and middle atlantic coast
will undergo further acceleration, to between 60-75 kts, as it
streams newd across cntl and ERN nc and sern va through ~15z thu.

At the surface, a 1007 mb low over e-cntl tn, and a triple point one
at the intersection of a cold front over WRN ga and a wedge front
over NRN ga, will consolidate and undergo rapid deepening on the
order of about 1 mb hr (and down to about 990 mb), as the
consolidated low tracks newd into the NRN middle atlantic states and
srn new england by 18 thu.

There is growing concern that momentum from the aforementioned llj
will mix to the surface and result in 35-45 kt surface wind gusts,
even in the absence of convection, and necessitate the issuance of a
wind advisory over the ERN half of nc (from scotland co. Newd to
johnston and halifax co. And points ewd across the coastal plain)
for late tonight through 16z thu. It appears the period of strongest
gusts would occur for just a few hours, just after the onset of
diurnal heating, before the LLJ peels newd and up the middle
atlantic coast. Surface wind gusts, admittedly only weakly thus far
into the 20s kts, have persisted nocturnally, suggestive of
sufficiently steep near surface lapse rates to promote continued
mixing as the LLJ further intensifies through Thu morning; and this
increases confidence that surface wind gusts should steadily
increase overnight. However, upon coordination with neighboring
offices, we'll hold off for that issuance at this time and defer to
the incoming midnight shifts, who will have the benefit of seeing
how surface wind gusts materialize as the LLJ ramps up toward
morning.

Otherwise, it will be unseasonably mild with temperatures mostly in
the lwr 60s overnight, except over the far NW piedmont for the next
several hrs, where the in-situ cold air damming regime and
temperatures in the 40s have been only slowly eroding. Within that
mild regime, areas of light rain will persist early tonight, ahead a
band of heavier, warm conveyor belt showers --maintained by the llj
and waa-- that will overspread cntl nc between 06-12z. The models
suggest this convection will steadily outpace the aforementioned
surface cold front over WRN ga, as well as the forcing for ascent
accompanying the upr level trough, and consequently become less
organized with time and newd extent. An additional broken line of
showers, with a slight chance of thunder, will likely redevelop
along the cold front, as it crosses cntl nc through midday thu, and
sweeps the aforementioned strong warm sector wind gusts to the east
of cntl nc.

As of 332 pm Wednesday...

behind the front on Thursday, gradual
clearing will commence and gusty westerly northwesterly winds will
filter into the region. This will allow for little to no daytime
heating, resulting in daytime highs likely to occur prior to sunrise
and the arrival of a predominant CAA regime.

Short term Thursday night through Sunday night
As of 333 pm Wednesday...

within the broad cyclonic flow across the eastern two-thirds of the
conus, a few rather robust shortwaves will rotate through the
region, resulting in periodic mid and high level cloudiness, but
little to no precipitation east of the mountains. Downstairs,
canadian high pressure building east into the area through Saturday,
will result in chilly, below normal temps through the weekend.

The strong post-frontal CAA Thursday night will continue through the
first half of the day on Friday with some occasional gustiness of 15
to 18 kts. Highs Friday and Saturday ranging from lower 40s north to
upper 40s south, which is a solid 7 degrees below normal.

Favorable radiational conditions Friday night should allow lows to
bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Airmass will begin to undergo
slight moderation on Sunday, with more seasonable temps expected.

Highs in the mid upper 40s north to lower 50s south. Lows in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 333 pm Wednesday...

a closed vortex diving south out of canada will lead to the
reloading of the broad long wave trough in place across the eastern
us late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Models have trended wetter with
the passage of the attendant cold front into the area late Tuesday
and Tuesday night. At this time, it looks like a mostly rain event,
with models still hinting at the potential for a brief change over
to some snow before ending. Will continue to monitor with minimal
to no impacts expected at this time. In advance of this reload,
rising heights aloft combined with the moderating sfc high across
the SE us will support slightly above normal temps early next week,
with cold below normal temps returning late week.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Sunday
As of 1235 am Thursday...

aviation ceilings are currently ranging fromVFR to lifr across the
region thanks to a warm front that is pulling to the north and west
across central north carolina. The wedge front is currently located
just north of the kint and kgso areas. Lifr conditions north and
west of the front. South and east of the warm front MVFR toVFR
conditions exist.

The line of showers is currently heading east along a cold front and
is forecast to approach the terminals early Thursday morning. The
line will move through the region during the overnight.

Some thunder will be possible towards a kfay to krwi area as the nam
is showing some instability CAPE moving northeast in association
with a weak surface low (around ~400 j kg of mu cape). The low level
pressure gradient will also increase meaning the low level flow will
be impressive. The NAM 2 kft agl winds are approaching 55 to 60 kts
so have left llws in all of the TAF sites to account for this.

Behind the front skies will slowly clear toVFR as drier air works
into the region.

Beyond 00z Friday:VFR conditions are expected through the extended
taf period.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Badgett mws
near term... Mws jjm
short term... Cbl
long term... Cbl
aviation... Badgett haines


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi62 min 61°F 44°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Last
24hr
1 day
ago
2 days
ago

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi51 minVar 510.00 miOvercast60°F55°F86%1011.2 hPa
Tarboro-Edgecombe Airport, NC15 mi64 minSSE 710.00 miFair59°F55°F88%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmE3NE5CalmCalm4S7SE65S9
G16
S11
G23
S10
G20
S12
G22
S9
G19
6S9S8
G15
S8
G15
S10S9S85
1 day agoN4NE5NE4NE3CalmNE5NE4NE8NE6N75W33SE3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSE3Calm
2 days agoNW14
G19
NW11
G20
NW14
G19
NW10
G18
NW12
G17
NW9
G19
NW11NW9
G19
NW11NW13
G20
W12
G18
NW10
G19
NW14NW10
G18
NW8
G17
NW12NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Suffolk
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:48 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:50 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     4.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:26 PM EST     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.843.52.51.30.1-0.7-0.9-0.50.41.733.94.44.23.42.20.8-0.3-0.9-0.8-0.20.82.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.