Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:01PM Thursday November 22, 2018 6:02 AM EST (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 5:59AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 429 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Today..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..SE winds around 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 220916
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
416 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
A dry backdoor cold front will push into north carolina this
morning. Behind the font much colder air will filter into the
region. An area of low pressure approaching from the southwest
will bring a good chance of rain Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am Thursday...

light northerly winds are currently across the CWA with clear
skies. Arctic cold front is pushing south through virgina this
morning with temperatures and dewpoints quickly falling behind.

The cold front is forecast to push into the northeastern zones
this morning and then clear central north carolina this evening.

No rain is expected with the front as pwats only remain around
0.45". High temperatures will be especially tricky this
afternoon as 850 mb temperatures (fall to just above 0 degrees
c) and 1000 850 thicknesses lower (lowering to sub 1300 m).

This type of pattern will support the warmest temperatures
towards the southwest (lower 50s) and the coldest temperatures
near the nc va border (near 40 degrees).

Tonight dewpoints will continue to fall into the mid teens with
temperatures quickly falling below freezing. Just how low will
the temperatures go tonight? The mid to upper 20's appears to be
the most likely solutions as some potential cloud cover over the
triad and the elevated pressure gradient will likely limit the
temperatures from falling to far. 1000 850 mb thicknesses are
also forecast to be ~1290 m which climatologically speaking
would support lows in the 23 to 30 degree range.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 415 am Thursday...

during the day Friday temperatures will be well below normal for
this time of year with highs in the lower 40s towards the north
and upper 40s towards the south. This will again be thanks to
strong high pressure located off to our northeast allowing 850
mb temperatures to remain near freezing.

Friday afternoon the surface high pressure and parent upper
level trough axis will push off the east coast with southern
stream energy moving off the coast of georgia and south
carolina.

Late Friday night the sub-tropical jet will strengthen to
around 145 kts with rah being placed in a lfq. Embedded in the
northern jet will be an approaching upper level trough axis
taking on a negative tilt. This will result in strong upper
level diffluence. This means precipitation will be moving into
the area from the west Friday night into early Saturday morning.

The main concern here is the potential for freezing rain.The
22.00z NAM run indicated a brief period of fzra at kint and kgso
while the GFS indicated just a cold rain. Given the low
dewpoints observed (teens), thermodynamic cooling must be
considered here. Given this, have added a slight chance of fzra
into the grids for the triad Saturday morning.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 410 am Thursday...

the flow aloft across the CONUS during the first half of the medium
range will be characterized by progressive and amplified NRN stream
flow, accompanied by a strong energetic SRN branch jet from the sern
pacific to the sern us - a pattern of lower than average
predictability, in part to stream interaction and consequences.

At the surface, arctic high pressure will have moved well offshore
the middle atlantic coast by sat, so any early morning freezing rain
potential over the far NW nc piedmont will be self-limiting and
short-lived. Rain will nonetheless become widespread from west to
east sat, as one frontal wave tracks nwd along the wedge front --
likely directly through cntl nc-- while another low, on the primary
baroclinic zone and supported by the energetic SRN stream jet, moves
well offshore the sern us coast. Such a low track would maintain
temperatures in the lwr-mid 40s over the WRN piedmont, ranging to
lwr 60s in the coastal plain, and 5-15 degree bust potential in
between. With the main baroclinic zone and maritime tropical air
expected to remain offshore, overall severe potential should be low.

Nonetheless, a weakly buoyant and strongly-sheared environment along
and east of the low track will be supportive of shallow convection
(probably devoid of lightning) capable of producing strong wind
gusts, and low level rotation mesocyclones.

Amidst deep layer drying clearing behind the departing low pressure
system, lingering low level moisture from the remnant in-situ
damming regime will likely result in the development of fog and or
very low overcast, some dense, Sat night. While the fog and low
clouds Sun morning may initially slow temperature rises, temps
should rebound into the upr 50s to low 60s with afternoon sun.

Another shortwave trough will quickly follow in the progressive flow
aloft, though farther north than the first and with the the
stronger focused forcing for ascent passing across the lwr oh
valley cntl appalachians middle atlantic - only glancing cntl nc and
remaining displaced from limited moisture return, and instability
over and offshore the sern us. As such, a band of showers will
likely result in cntl nc Sun night-early mon, with limited QPF (less
than a quarter inch).

Nrn stream troughing, around a deep vortex over the northeast, will
then yield cool and dry conditions through mid-week.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
As of 1245 am Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: arctic surface high pressure just west of the
hudson bay will continue to dive southeast this morning with winds
turning from the northeast. Due to this elevated pressure gradient
occasional wind gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range will be possible
around kfay and krwi. In the afternoon as the front passes through
the TAF sites someVFR clouds will be possible. This low level
moisture will then pull west as the low level flow turns more
easterly. Towards the end of the TAF issuance the trapped low level
moisture towards kint kgso will likely become an MVFR deck.

Long term: late Friday into Saturday the next upper level
disturbance will approach the area with aviation conditions
beginning to deteriorate. Sub-vfr (event down into lifr possible)
conditions will then likely continue into Sunday and early Monday
until the next cold front moves across the TAF sites.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Haines
near term... Haines
short term... Haines
long term... Mws
aviation... Haines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi38 min N 9.9 G 15 43°F 55°F1026.5 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair35°F30°F82%1027 hPa
Tarboro-Edgecombe Airport, NC15 mi82 minW 310.00 miFair31°F29°F94%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW45W7W6W6SW5W8W4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4N8N6NE5N5CalmNE3
1 day agoSW3SW6SW8W7W8NW8NW11N6W8NW6N14
G19
N7N8N8N7N7N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmSE3S33CalmS34SE4S3CalmS4S4S5S8S6S3S4S4S4S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:08 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:37 AM EST     4.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:57 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:57 PM EST     4.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.20.3-00.20.923.24.24.84.84.33.42.21.10.300.31.12.13.13.94.13.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.