Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wake Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:06PM Monday September 25, 2017 11:57 PM EDT (03:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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location: 35.97, -78.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 260130
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
930 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over much of the eastern states will bring mainly dry
and warm weather over the region through Thursday. Maria is forecast
to move northward over the western atlantic, staying off the north
carolina coast, through midweek, before moving quickly northeast and
out to sea on Thursday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday
night, bringing much cooler air for the upcoming weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 930 pm Monday...

high clouds streaking over nc, toward the NW off the top of maria,
will persist overnight. But more significant will be the low clouds,
currently noted by observations and prelim non-op goes-16 imagery
over the central and northern coastal area of nc. These are expected
to push westward over central nc over the next several hours,
bringing a trend to overcast skies over all but the far western cwa
(western piedmont) overnight. Spotty showers are currently located
just east of the forecast area, and while a few of these may work
into the coastal plain tonight, they would be isolated, very
shallow, and unlikely to generate measurable precip. As such, will
have just isolated sprinkles over the far east overnight. Using a
blend of current trends and high res temp guidance, and factoring in
the usual cooler spots of the last couple of nights (far western and
northern piedmont, which also will see fewer clouds and better
radiational cooling), expect lows from the low 60s NW to around 70
se. -gih

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 130 pm Monday...

maria is expected to slowly lift northward and remain a couple
hundred miles off the nc coast. Thus, central nc will remain well
west of the track of the hurricane. Most locations across the area
will remain dry, with only a few light showers associated with some
weakening outer bands possible Tuesday-Tuesday night across the far
eastern coastal plain counties. The main impacts will be mostly
cloudy to overcast skies and some breezy conditions, with gusts up
to 30 mph mainly across the coastal plain and eastern sandhills.

High temps are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s and lows in
the upper 60s to near 70.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 310 pm Monday...

unseasonably warm and dry conditions will occur through the first
half of the extended, followed by a return to more seasonable
temperatures by the weekend.

Tropical cyclone maria will make its closest approach to the nc
coast Wednesday and Wednesday night, though still a couple hundred
miles offshore. The difference in pressure between maria and high
pressure anchored over the new england will result in a steady
northerly sfc wind over central nc wed, with sustained winds 9-13
mph, and gusts 20-25 mph confined mostly to the far northeast
piedmont and northern coastal plain. The long NE low level fetch
will pull atlantic moisture into the NE third of central nc,
resulting in variably cloudy skies. Elsewhere, skies will vary
between partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Afternoon temperatures will
run 7-10 degrees above normal for late september, reaching well into
the 80s across the north, and near 90-lower 90s across the south.

While well above normal, these projected high temperatures will be
just shy of record highs for september 27.

The threat for showers still appears to be minimal as best low level
convergence and deeper moisture will reside well to our east-ne.

Have confined the slight chance pop to an area along and east of a
wilson-roanoke rapids line.

Thursday into Friday, a S W crossing from the great lakes into new
england will propel a cold front sewd toward central nc Thursday,
passing overhead late thu-thu evening. Moisture limited with this
feature and convergence anemic; so will maintain a dry frontal
passage at this time. The approach of this weather feature will
cause maria to turn to the NE and accelerate away from the u.S.

Coast. Prior to frontal passage, expect another unseasonably warm
afternoon with temperatures back into the upper 80s-lower 90s.

Notably cooler air mass will filter into central nc by Friday as
afternoon temperatures will be 7-10 degrees cooler compared to
Thursday.

Another S W will cross southern new england northern mid atlantic
Saturday, propelling another sfc front sewd across central nc. This
front will reinforce the dry air mass already in place. Forcing
associated with the S W may result in a scattered broken stratocu
deck, primarily north and east of raleigh on Saturday, though
moisture appears too shallow to support any showers. The cooling
trend will continue Saturday with high temperatures 75-80.

Canadian high pressure will build into our region Sunday into
Monday, maintaining dry and seasonable conditions. Afternoon
temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, with morning lows generally 50-55
with upper 40s probable in the normally colder locations.

.Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
as of 800 pm Monday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR conditions to start out the TAF period will
fall to MVFR and then ifr at eastern TAF sites overnight as lower
clouds move in from the east with hurricane maria moving closer to
the nc coast. Restrictions should be limited to low ceilings but
there is some indication from models of at least MVFR visibilities
at krdu and kgso prior to ceilings moving it. Low confidence in this
scenario at this time but it is possible. Wind gusts of up to 20 kts
and possibly the occasional higher gust will begin in the east after
sunrise. This activity should continue through the end of the taf
period.

Outlook: showers and wind gusts associated with hurricane maria will
continue at eastern TAF sites through Wednesday with a return toVFR
conditions for the end of the week.

Climate
Record high temperatures across central nc for september 27 and
28.

Record MAX (9 27) record MAX (9 28)
rdu 94 1998 95 1998
gso 90 2007 92 1939
fay 94 1986 95 1933

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Bsd franklin
long term... Wss
aviation... Ellis
climate... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County Airport, NC11 mi78 minNE 310.00 miFair70°F68°F94%1015.2 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC15 mi67 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F84%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from LHZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4NE6NE6NE9NE8
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE6N7NE9NE7NE9
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N6NE8NE6N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N5N5N8N5NE3NE4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.