Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wake Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:01PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:30 PM EST (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:12AMMoonset 9:49PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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location: 35.97, -78.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 191913
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
213 pm est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure over the region will block a warm frontal passage
today and tonight. Finally, the front will surge north of the area
Tuesday, bringing much warmer temperatures for the rest of the week.

Record warm weather is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1130 am Monday...

areas of fog becoming widespread, dense fog likely tonight...

much of the steady rain has moved NE away from our region as we
approach noon. However, radar continued to show patchy light rain
and drizzle (weak returns). In addition, the satellite data
indicated a low overcast over all of our region (even as far south
as i-40 in sampson county). There is no warm front at the surface
now, it is a stationary front along the coast. Surface winds had
become NE (indicated the cool, stable air was winning out) all the
way into the wilmington NWS area of responsibility. In-situ cad has
developed in response to the rain cooling the boundary layer over
all of the piedmont damming region. Aided by 0.1 to locally 0.25 of
an inch of rain overnight. Winds at the surface have responded to
the diabatic cooling processes and have backed to the ne.

Temperatures were in the 40s all the way to clinton and deep into
the midlands of sc. The sounding data also depicted saturation and
temperature inversions up through 5500 feet agl, with WAA (40kt sw
flow a top the NE flow at the surface). Warming aloft today with the
sw flow a top the chilly, damp, stable air dome near the surface
will not go anywhere. The front near the coast is forecast to begin
to try to drive inland, yet it will be blocked by the strong in-situ
cad.

Expect low stratus and fog to lower later today and tonight. See the
hazardous weather outlook. There is increasing potential for a dense
fog advisory for a good part of the region tonight and Tuesday
morning, as the returning warm air a top the cool stable air near
the surface continues after dark.

Highs should stay in the mid 40s to mid 50s (se) this afternoon,
with little movement tonight with saturation. Only patchy drizzle is
expected, with essentially a few hundredths additional expected
today and tonight.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 1130 am Monday...

Areas of dense fog early...

the fog will likely be dense and extensive through mid-morning
Tuesday. Finally, the WAA aloft will be allowed to gradually mix
down and scour out the stratus fog during the late morning and
afternoon. Highs should be tempered with readings slow to warm in
the piedmont, but earlier clearing in the south will aid warming
there. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s expected, with the cooler
damp NAM guidance with the slower clearing preferred guidance in the
piedmont damming region Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 213 pm Monday...

unseasonable, perhaps record warmth will be the main weather story
Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a 595 ridge off the southeast
coast and warm southerly flow on the western side of that ridge.

Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE both
days, along with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The next cold front (that's currently extending from the great lakes
region southwest to the south central plains) will slowly drop south
into and across nc Thursday evening through Thursday night. It's
possible that some light rain may begin north of the i-85 corridor
as early as late afternoon Thursday (which would hold temps there a
bit lower than currently forecast), but it appears that the best
chance for rain assoc with the FROPA and subsequent cad behind it,
will be Thursday evening into Friday morning.

After a cloudy damp start to Friday with the cad in place, the
boundary will attempt to lift back north by late-day with southerly
flow and warming returning in it's wake. Temps Friday will be
dependent on the timing of the cad erosion and clouds breaking up
and the southerly flow returning. However, right now it looks like
locations near the sc border will have the best chance of seeing
temps returning to lower 70s, while warming farther north will be
delayed, holding in the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday will feature a mix of Sun and clouds with our area between
the sfc high centered to our east and the next cold front moving
across the oh and ms valleys. Warm southerly flow between the two
and sunshine will help temps climb into the 70s. Then on Sunday the
front is expected to cross the region, bringing a chance for showers
and possibly a thunderstorm to our area, and subsequent cooling
trend in the wake of the front for early next week.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 645 am Monday...

24 hour TAF period: precipitation across the area has led to the
expected lowering of ceilings and visibilities across the area to
mostly ifr lifr levels. Rain is already beginning to end in the
southwest and will continue to exit to the northeast. Conditions are
expected to improve to MVFR and possiblyVFR this afternoon before
lowering once again after sunset. Overnight tonight expect periods
of dense fog possible across the area as low level moisture remains
prominent.

Long term: aviation conditions will return toVFR on Tuesday and
should remain there for the next several days with the exception of
early morning fog low stratus.

Climate
Rdu records:
date | high year | high min year
------------------------------------------
02 20 75 1939 62 1939
02 21 76 2011 55 1939
02 22 75 1897 60 1897
02 23 79 1980 57 1962
02 24 81 1982 58 1985
gso records:
date | high year | high min year
------------------------------------------
02 20 74 1922 56 1939
02 21 74 2011 50 1954
02 22 74 1925 57 1980
02 23 74 2017 52 1922
02 24 79 1982 55 1985
fay records:
date | high year | high min year
-------------------------------------------
02 20 82 2014 60 1939
02 21 80 1991 61 1953
02 22 77 2003 56 1989
02 23 80 1922 55 1922
02 24 83 1930 60 1975

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Badgett
short term... Badgett
long term... Np
aviation... Ellis
climate... Badgett


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County Airport, NC11 mi36 minN 07.00 miOvercast45°F44°F100%1030.5 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC15 mi40 minN 00.50 miFog/Mist47°F45°F93%1029.6 hPa

Wind History from LHZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6E6E5E3E3E4SE7SE6SE6E5E5E5CalmE4E5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE4E3----CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N8N7NE3NE7E6
2 days agoN10
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N6NW5CalmCalmNW3NW3NW6N5N4NE13
G17
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E7E7E11E8E9E7E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.