Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 8:18 PM   Moonset 6:00 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KMRX 242329 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 729 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

Skies will continue to clear into the evening, with possibly patchy fog early in the morning.

Discussion:

Rain has moved well east of the mountains today leaving behind it sunnier skies and a shallow cumulus field in its wake. With more solar radiation making it to the surface temperatures are well on their way to get right around seasonal normals this afternoon.
Heading into the overnight hours expect the skies to continue to clear out letting temperatures drop about 10 degrees colder than last night. We could see some very patchy fog in the valleys and wind sheltered areas that don't completely dry out from the morning showers. However widespread dense fog is not expected at this time. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with the continued trend of quiet skies.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

1. Low rain chances Friday as a warm front moves through the region.

2. Breezy southwesterly winds Friday through Saturday. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions forecast over the weekend.

3. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the region on Friday. At the surface, a strong low is over Nebraska on Friday supported by a closed low aloft. The cold front with this system remains well to the west of the Mississippi River on Friday. The warm front ahead of this system will be moving through the forecast region on Friday bringing a slight chance for rain throughout the day. Southwesterly flow will increase bringing WAA and winds will be gusty by Friday afternoon mainly in the higher elevations and the southern Tennessee Valley where gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Dew points will creep into the 50s by Friday afternoon but instability will likely be too low for thunder.

Saturday and Sunday look dry with the cold front from the aforementioned system stalling and weakening near the Mississippi River. Ridging and high pressure will be over the Southeast and our region. Breezy southerly winds will continue Friday night and Saturday. Gusts may be borderline advisory criteria (40 mph) Friday night in the higher elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee Mountains with a wind direction favorable for downslope wind enhancement.

Monday and Tuesday, a low will be moving through the Great Lakes with a healthy trough extending through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The cold front will move through the region with the best chance for showers and storms Monday night and Tuesday (for now).

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The aviation weather concern this cycle is possible fog development late tonight, and right now TRI looks like the place with the highest chance to have vsby significantly impacted by fog. Confidence is still not high enough to forecast dense fog there, but will include a few hours of IFR conditions toward sunrise at TRI. Otherwise, will have VFR conditions all sites.
Winds will generally be light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 78 58 78 / 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 75 52 74 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 46 76 52 74 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 70 47 70 / 0 0 0 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,